2011 Canarian regional election

Date

The term of the Parliament of the Canary Islands expired four years after the date of its previous ordinary election, with election day being fixed for the fourth Sunday of May every four years. The election decree was required to be issued no later than 54 days before the scheduled election date and published on the following day in the Official Gazette of the Canaries (BOC).^[3] The previous election was held on 27 May 2007, setting the date for election day on the fourth Sunday of May four years later, which was 22 May 2011.

The Parliament of the Canary Islands could not be dissolved before the expiration date of parliament, except in the event of an investiture process failing to elect a regional president within a two-month period from the first ballot. In such a case, the Parliament was to be automatically dissolved and a snap election called, with elected lawmakers serving the remainder of its original four-year term.^[4]

The election to the Parliament of the Canary Islands was officially called on 29 March 2011 with the publication of the corresponding decree in the BOC, setting election day for 22 May.^[5]

Electoral system

Voting for the Parliament was based on universal suffrage, comprising all Spanish nationals over 18 years of age, registered in the Canary Islands and with full political rights, provided that they had not been deprived of the right to vote by a final sentence, nor were legally incapacitated.^[6] Amendments earlier in 2011 required non-resident citizens to apply for voting, a system known as "begged" voting (Spanish: Voto rogado).^[7][8]

The Parliament of the Canary Islands had a minimum of 50 and a maximum of 70 seats, with electoral provisions fixing its size at 60. All were elected in seven multi-member constituencies—corresponding to the islands of El Hierro, Fuerteventura, Gran Canaria, La Gomera, La Palma, Lanzarote and Tenerife, each of which was assigned a fixed number of seats—using the D'Hondt method and closed-list proportional voting, with a 30 percent-threshold of valid votes (including blank ballots) in each constituency or six percent regionally.^[9]

As a result of the aforementioned allocation, each Parliament constituency was entitled the following seats:^[10]

The law did not provide for by-elections to fill vacant seats; instead, any vacancies arising after the proclamation of candidates and during the legislative term were filled by the next candidates on the party lists or, when required, by designated substitutes.^[11]

Outgoing parliament

The table below shows the composition of the parliamentary groups in the chamber at the time of the election call.^[12][13]

Voting intention estimates

The table below lists weighted voting intention estimates. Refusals are generally excluded from the party vote percentages, while question wording and the treatment of "don't know" responses and those not intending to vote may vary between polling organisations. When available, seat projections determined by the polling organisations are displayed below (or in place of) the percentages in a smaller font; 31 seats were required for an absolute majority in the Parliament of the Canary Islands.

More information Polling firm/Commissioner, Fieldwork date ...

Polling firm/Commissioner	Fieldwork date	Sample size	Turnout					CCN	PIL			Lead
2011 regional election	22 May 2011	—N/a	58.9	21.0 15	24.9 21	31.9 21	9.1 3	[c]	[d]	0.8 0	1.0 0	7.0
Demométrica/ACN Press[p 1][p 2]	2–12 May 2011	2,820	?	26.9 17/19	25.8 17/19	30.4 16/19	11.6 6	[c]	[d]	–	–	3.5
NC Report/La Razón[p 3][p 4]	3–10 May 2011	?	?	25.9 17/18	27.5 20/21	27.9 19/20	? 2/3	[c]	[d]	–	–	0.4
Ikerfel/Vocento[p 5]	9 May 2011	?	?	28.8 19/21	25.7 18/19	22.9 15/16	12.9 6	[c]	[d]	–	–	3.1
TNS Demoscopia/Antena 3[p 6][p 7]	9 May 2011	1,500	?	26.7 19/21	28.4 18/20	27.7 18/20	6.0 0/3	–	[d]	–	–	0.7
Celeste-Tel/Terra[p 8]	13–20 Apr 2011	700	?	23.2 16	25.1 20	30.3 21	8.5 2	–	[d]	–	–	5.2
OPMC Consultores[p 9][p 10]	5–17 Apr 2011	2,400	?	27.7 20/21	27.1 19/21	30.6 16/18	9.2 3	–	[d]	–	–	2.9
CIS[p 11][p 12]	17 Mar–17 Apr 2011	1,797	?	30.2 23	23.9 19/20	27.3 16/17	5.1 0/2	–	[d]	1.7 0	0.8 0	2.9
Sigma Dos/El Mundo[p 13]	7–12 Apr 2011	1,200	?	27.3 17/18	25.6 17/22	33.6 19/23	6.0 1/3	–	[d]	–	–	6.3
Demométrica/ACN Press[p 14][p 15]	22 Feb–17 Mar 2011	2,806	?	26.9 17/19	24.6 16/19	30.7 17/19	11.0 6	–	[d]	–	–	3.8
Sigma Dos/PP[p 16][p 17][p 18]	15–18 Feb 2011	3,600	?	28.0 16/21	25.7 19/20	33.1 20/24	–	–	–	–	–	5.1
Perfiles/Canarias7[p 19][p 20][p 21]	1–9 Feb 2011	2,400	?	22.0– 23.0 17	30.0– 31.0 22/24	29.0– 30.0 17/20	7.0– 8.0 1/3	–	[d]	–	–	1.0
Sigma Dos/El Mundo[p 22]	21–27 Dec 2010	1,200	?	27.6 17/18	25.2 18/22	37.0 21/24	–	–	–	–	–	9.4
OPMC Consultores[p 23][p 24]	12–24 Jul 2010	3,600	60.1	31.7 23	20.5 14	28.4 14	[e]	15.8 9	[e]	–	–	3.3
			60.1	33.1 23/25	22.7 18/19	29.6 15/16	6.7 0/2	5.2 0/2	0.8 0	–	–	3.5
Sigma Dos/El Mundo[p 25]	19–24 May 2010	1,200	?	30.7 20/23	22.0 14/17	35.3 22/24	–	–	–	–	–	4.6
2009 EP election	7 Jun 2009	—N/a	39.2	36.0 (23)	15.8 (12)	40.8 (25)	–	–	–	1.6 (0)	1.2 (0)	4.8
KDK Creativa[p 26]	1 Jun 2009	2,550	60.5	33.6 22	23.1 16/17	27.4 14	9.8 5/6	6.9 1/3	0.8 0	–	–	6.2
2008 general election	9 Mar 2008	—N/a	65.9	39.6 (27)	17.5 (10)	35.0 (23)	3.8 (0)	[d]	[c]	1.2 (0)	0.4 (0)	4.6
2007 regional election	27 May 2007	—N/a	60.4	34.5 26	24.2 19	24.0 15	5.4 0	4.0 0	1.0 0	0.7 0	–	10.3

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Voting preferences

The table below lists raw, unweighted voting preferences.

More information Polling firm/Commissioner, Fieldwork date ...

Polling firm/Commissioner	Fieldwork date	Sample size							?	N	Lead
2011 regional election[f]	22 May 2011	—N/a	12.9	15.3	19.6	5.6	0.5	0.6	—N/a	36.8	4.3
CIS[p 11]	17 Mar–17 Apr 2011	1,797	13.1	15.0	16.1	1.3	1.1	0.4	39.9	7.3	1.1
2009 EP election[f]	7 Jun 2009	—N/a	14.6	6.4	16.7	–	0.6	0.5	—N/a	59.0	4.8
2008 general election[f]	9 Mar 2008	—N/a	26.6	11.3	23.9	2.6	0.9	0.2	—N/a	32.4	2.7
2007 regional election[f]	27 May 2007	—N/a	22.0	14.8	15.4	3.5	0.3	–	—N/a	36.2	6.6

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Victory preferences

The table below lists opinion polling on the victory preferences for each party in the event of a regional election taking place.

More information Polling firm/Commissioner, Fieldwork date ...

Polling firm/Commissioner	Fieldwork date	Sample size							Other/ None	?	Lead
CIS[p 11]	17 Mar–17 Apr 2011	1,797	17.1	19.9	22.5	1.9	1.2	0.6	10.3	26.4	2.6

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Victory likelihood

The table below lists opinion polling on the perceived likelihood of victory for each party in the event of a regional election taking place.

More information Polling firm/Commissioner, Fieldwork date ...

Polling firm/Commissioner	Fieldwork date	Sample size							Other/ None	?	Lead
CIS[p 11]	17 Mar–17 Apr 2011	1,797	8.4	29.1	30.2	0.5	0.1	0.0	2.6	29.2	1.1

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Preferred President

The table below lists opinion polling on leader preferences to become president of the Canary Islands.

More information Polling firm/Commissioner, Fieldwork date ...

Polling firm/Commissioner	Fieldwork date	Sample size								Other/ None/ Not care	?	Lead
			Pérez PSOE	Rivero CC	Soria PP	Rodríguez NCa	González CCN	Tamayo IUC	García UPyD
CIS[p 11]	17 Mar–17 Apr 2011	1,797	9.2	27.4	18.4	–	–	0.9	0.3	13.6	30.1	9.0
Perfiles/Canarias7[p 19]	1–9 Feb 2011	2,400	14.0	31.1	27.7	6.2	2.4	–	–	5.8	12.8	3.4

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Overall

More information Parties and alliances, Popular vote ...

← Summary of the 22 May 2011 Parliament of the Canary Islands election results →

Parties and alliances		Popular vote			Seats
		Votes	%	±pp	Total	+/−
	People's Party (PP)	289,381	31.94	+7.90	21	+6
	Canarian Coalition–Nationalist Party–Canarian Centre (CC–PNC–CCN)1	225,948	24.94	−3.16	21	+2
	Spanish Socialist Workers' Party (PSOE)	190,028	20.98	−13.53	15	−11
	New Canaries (NCa)2	82,148	9.07	+2.60	3	+3
	Yes We Can Citizens' Alternative (ACSSP)3	19,020	2.10	+1.58	0	±0
	The Greens (Verdes)	18,831	2.08	+0.18	0	±0
	Union, Progress and Democracy (UPyD)	9,069	1.00	New	0	±0
	Commitment to Gran Canaria (CGCa)	7,382	0.81	−0.10	0	±0
	Canarian United Left (IUC)	6,818	0.75	+0.05	0	±0
	Canarian Nationalist Alternative (ANC)	6,494	0.72	+0.45	0	±0
	Common Sense in the Canaries (SCC)	4,761	0.53	New	0	±0
	Majorero Progressive Party (PPMAJO)	4,334	0.48	New	0	±0
	Canarian Patriotic Movement (MPC)	2,750	0.30	New	0	±0
	Anti-Bullfighting Party Against Mistreatment of Animals (PACMA)	2,715	0.30	New	0	±0
	Communist Party of the Canarian People (PCPC)	2,368	0.26	+0.12	0	±0
	Party for Services and Public Employed (PSyEP)	1,993	0.22	New	0	±0
	For a Fairer World (PUM+J)	1,442	0.16	New	0	±0
	Movement for the Unity of the Canarian People (MUPC)	1,268	0.14	+0.05	0	±0
	Humanist Party (PH)	1,246	0.14	+0.06	0	±0
	Unity of the People (UP)	1,133	0.13	−0.03	0	±0
	Liberal Democratic Centre (CDL)	1,018	0.11	New	0	±0
	Canarian Social Democratic Centre (CSDC)	361	0.04	New	0	±0
	National Democracy (DN)	314	0.03	±0.00	0	±0
	Communist Unification of Spain (UCE)	120	0.01	New	0	±0
Blank ballots		25,017	2.76	+1.34
Total		905,959			60	±0
Valid votes		905,959	97.31	−2.12
Invalid votes		25,051	2.69	+2.12
Votes cast / turnout		931,010	58.90	−1.54
Abstentions		649,690	41.10	+1.54
Registered voters		1,580,700
Sources[12][22]
Footnotes: 1 Canarian Coalition–Nationalist Party–Canarian Centre results are compared to the combined totals of Canarian Coalition–Canarian Nationalist Party and Canarian Centre in the 2007 election, not including Canarian Centre results in Lanzarote. 2 New Canaries results are compared to the combined totals of New Canaries and Canarian Centre in Lanzarote in the 2007 election. 3 Yes We Can Citizens' Alternative results are compared to Canarian Popular Alternative–25 May Citizens' Alternative totals in the 2007 election.

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Distribution by constituency

Government formation

More information Ballot →, 5 July 2011 ...

Investiture Nomination of Paulino Rivero (CC)
Ballot →		5 July 2011
Required majority →		31 out of 60 Y
	Yes • CC–PNC–CCN (21) • PSOE (15)	36 / 60
	No • PP (21)	21 / 60
	Abstentions • NCa (2) • PIL (1)	3 / 60
	Absentees	0 / 60
Sources[12][23]

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