2015 Canarian regional election
Election in the Spanish region of the Canary Islands
From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
A regional election was held in the Canary Islands on 24 May 2015 to elect the 9th Parliament of the autonomous community. All 60 seats in the Parliament were up for election. It was held concurrently with regional elections in twelve other autonomous communities and local elections all across Spain.
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5.1%
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24 May 2015
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All 60 seats in the Parliament of the Canary Islands 31 seats needed for a majority | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| Opinion polls | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Registered | 1,661,494 5.1% | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Turnout | 931,876 (56.1%) 2.8 pp | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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 Constituency results map for the Parliament of the Canary Islands | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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Overview
Under the 1982 Statute of Autonomy, the Parliament of the Canary Islands was the unicameral legislature of the homonymous autonomous community, having legislative power in devolved matters, as well as the ability to grant or withdraw confidence from a regional president.[1] The electoral and procedural rules were supplemented by national law provisions.[2]
Date
The term of the Parliament of the Canary Islands expired four years after the date of its previous ordinary election, with election day being fixed for the fourth Sunday of May every four years. The election decree was required to be issued no later than 54 days before the scheduled election date and published on the following day in the Official Gazette of the Canaries (BOC).[3] The previous election was held on 22 May 2011, setting the date for election day on the fourth Sunday of May four years later, which was 24 May 2015.
The Parliament of the Canary Islands could not be dissolved before the expiration date of parliament, except in the event of an investiture process failing to elect a regional president within a two-month period from the first ballot. In such a case, the Parliament was to be automatically dissolved and a snap election called, with elected lawmakers serving the remainder of its original four-year term.[4]
The election to the Parliament of the Canary Islands was officially called on 31 March 2015 with the publication of the corresponding decree in the BOC, setting election day for 24 May.[5]
Electoral system
Voting for the Parliament was based on universal suffrage, comprising all Spanish nationals over 18 years of age, registered in the Canary Islands and with full political rights, provided that they had not been deprived of the right to vote by a final sentence, nor were legally incapacitated.[6] Additionally, non-resident citizens were required to apply for voting, a system known as "begged" voting (Spanish: Voto rogado).[7][8]
The Parliament of the Canary Islands had a minimum of 50 and a maximum of 70 seats, with electoral provisions fixing its size at 60. All were elected in seven multi-member constituencies—corresponding to the islands of El Hierro, Fuerteventura, Gran Canaria, La Gomera, La Palma, Lanzarote and Tenerife, each of which was assigned a fixed number of seats—using the D'Hondt method and closed-list proportional voting, with a 30 percent-threshold of valid votes (including blank ballots) in each constituency or six percent regionally.[9]
As a result of the aforementioned allocation, each Parliament constituency was entitled the following seats:[10]
| Seats | Constituencies |
|---|---|
| 15 | Gran Canaria, Tenerife |
| 8 | La Palma, Lanzarote |
| 7 | Fuerteventura |
| 4 | La Gomera |
| 3 | El Hierro |
The law did not provide for by-elections to fill vacant seats; instead, any vacancies arising after the proclamation of candidates and during the legislative term were filled by the next candidates on the party lists or, when required, by designated substitutes.[11]
Outgoing parliament
The table below shows the composition of the parliamentary groups in the chamber at the time of the election call.[12][13]
Parties and candidates
The electoral law allowed for parties and federations registered in the interior ministry, alliances and groupings of electors to present lists of candidates. Parties and federations intending to form an alliance were required to inform the relevant electoral commission within 10 days of the election call, whereas groupings of electors needed to secure the signature of at least one percent of the electorate in the constituencies for which they sought election, disallowing electors from signing for more than one list.[14] Additionally, a balanced composition of men and women was required in the electoral lists, so that candidates of either sex made up at least 40 percent of the total composition.[15]
Below is a list of the main parties and alliances which contested the election:
| Candidacy | Parties and alliances |
Candidate | Ideology | Previous result | Gov. | Ref. | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vote % | Seats | ||||||||
| PP | List
|
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Australia Navarro | Conservatism Christian democracy |
31.9% | 21 |  |
[16] | |
| CCa–PNC | List
|
|
Fernando Clavijo | Regionalism Canarian nationalism Centrism |
24.9% | 21 |  |
[17] [18] | |
| PSOE | List |
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Patricia Hernández | Social democracy | 21.0% | 15 | |
[19] | |
| NCa | List
|
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Román Rodríguez | Canarian nationalism Social democracy |
9.1% | 3 | |
[20] [21] [22] | |
| Podemos | List
|
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Noemí Santana | Left-wing populism Direct democracy Democratic socialism |
Did not contest | |
[23] | ||
| C's | List |
 |
Melisa Rodríguez | Liberalism | Did not contest | |
[24] | ||
| ASG | List
|
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Casimiro Curbelo | Insularism Social democracy |
Did not contest | |
[25] | ||
Opinion polls
The tables below list opinion polling results in reverse chronological order, showing the most recent first and using the dates when the survey fieldwork was done, as opposed to the date of publication. Where the fieldwork dates are unknown, the date of publication is given instead. The highest percentage figure in each polling survey is displayed with its background shaded in the leading party's colour. If a tie ensues, this is applied to the figures with the highest percentages. The "Lead" column on the right shows the percentage-point difference between the parties with the highest percentages in a poll.
Voting intention estimates
The table below lists weighted voting intention estimates. Refusals are generally excluded from the party vote percentages, while question wording and the treatment of "don't know" responses and those not intending to vote may vary between polling organisations. When available, seat projections determined by the polling organisations are displayed below (or in place of) the percentages in a smaller font; 31 seats were required for an absolute majority in the Parliament of the Canary Islands.
| Polling firm/Commissioner | Fieldwork date | Sample size | Turnout |  |
 |
 |
 |
 |
LV |  |
 |
PPM |  |
 |
 |
U | Lead |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2015 regional election | 24 May 2015 | N/a | 56.1 | 18.6 12 |
18.2 18 |
19.9 15 |
10.2 5 |
– | [a] | 0.9 0 |
2.2 0 |
[b] | 14.5 7 |
5.9 0 |
0.6 3 |
3.6 0 |
1.3 |
| NC Report/La Razón[p 1][p 2][p 3] | 17 May 2015 | 1,150 | ? | 20.9 12/13 |
19.2 14/16 |
17.8 12/13 |
8.9 4/5 |
– | – | – | – | [b] | 12.5 8/9 |
9.2 5/6 |
? 1/2 |
– | 1.7 |
| Hamalgama Métrica/La Opinión[p 4][p 5] | ?–16 May 2015 | ? | 61.9 | 18.7 11/14 |
19.4 15/18 |
18.4 13/14 |
8.7 4 |
– | – | – | – | [b] | 14.1 6/8 |
8.6 3/6 |
0.3 1/2 |
– | 0.7 |
| Perfiles/Diario de Avisos[p 6][p 7] | 4–14 May 2015 | 3,000 | ? | 20.0– 21.0 11/14 |
20.0– 21.0 16/19 |
18.0– 19.0 13/16 |
9.0– 10.0 3/5 |
– | – | – | – | [b] | 9.0– 10.0 5/6 |
9.0– 10.0 3/7 |
0.0– 1.0 2/3 |
4.0– 5.0 0 |
Tie |
| Focus Investigación[p 8][p 9] | 20 Apr 2015 | 6,840 | ? | 20.5 12/14 |
23.6 17/22 |
19.3 13/15 |
7.4 3/5 |
– | [a] | – | 4.7 | [b] | 12.1 6/8 |
7.0 2 |
– | – | 3.1 |
| Perfiles/Diario de Avisos[p 10][p 11][p 12] | 7–20 Apr 2015 | 3,000 | ? | 19.0– 20.0 13/15 |
18.0– 19.0 17 |
18.0– 19.0 13/15 |
7.0– 8.0 3/5 |
– | – | – | – | [b] | 10.0– 11.0 6 |
10.0– 11.0 5/7 |
0.0– 1.0 0/1 |
4.0– 5.0 0 |
1.0 |
| CIS[p 13][p 14] | 23 Mar–19 Apr 2015 | 1,723 | ? | 20.8 12/14 |
18.9 17 |
20.4 15/16 |
5.2 0 |
– | – | 0.7 0 |
4.1 0 |
[b] | 15.8 10 |
10.7 4/5 |
– | – | 0.4 |
| TSA/Canarias7[p 15][p 16] | 26 Mar–9 Apr 2015 | 2,779 | ? | 19.7 11/14 |
18.9 14/17 |
18.4 11/14 |
11.9 5/7 |
– | – | – | – | [b] | 11.1 5/6 |
9.3 5/6 |
0.5 1 |
4.1 0 |
0.8 |
| NC Report/La Razón[p 17][p 18][p 19] | 23 Mar–9 Apr 2015 | 1,150 | ? | 22.2 13/14 |
20.2 15/17 |
18.2 12/13 |
8.9 5/6 |
– | – | – | – | [b] | 11.8 7/8 |
7.1 4/5 |
? 1/2 |
– | 2.0 |
| Hamalgama Métrica/La Provincia [p 20][p 21][p 22] |
10–28 Nov 2014 | 2,400 | 62.4 | 24.2 14 |
21.2 16/18 |
18.8 10/11 |
8.6 4/6 |
[c] | 2.3 0 |
1.6 0 |
2.5 0 |
0.5 0 |
18.4 9/11 |
– | 0.6 2 |
– | 3.0 |
| 62.4 | 24.2 14/15 |
21.2 17/19 |
18.8 11/12 |
8.6 4/6 |
2.6 0 |
2.3 0 |
1.6 0 |
2.5 0 |
0.5 0 |
15.8 8/9 |
– | 0.6 2 |
– | 3.0 | |||
| 62.4 | 24.2 14/15 |
21.2 17/19 |
19.4 13/14 |
8.6 4/6 |
2.6 0 |
2.3 0 |
1.6 0 |
2.5 0 |
0.5 0 |
15.8 8/9 |
– | – | – | 3.0 | |||
| Llorente & Cuenca[p 23] | 31 Oct 2014 | ? | ? | ? 17/19 |
? 17/22 |
? 12/14 |
? 4/5 |
– | – | ? 2 |
– | – | ? 2/4 |
– | – | – | ? |
| Celeste-Tel/Diario de Avisos[p 24] | 4–14 Aug 2014 | 2,800 | 60.9 | 23.8 15 |
21.1 18 |
18.0 14 |
10.3 6 |
– | – | 1.2 0 |
2.2 0 |
– | 13.2 7 |
– | – | – | 2.7 |
| 2014 EP election[p 25] | 25 May 2014 | N/a | 35.0 | 23.4 (18) |
12.2 (10) |
22.2 (19) |
– | – | [a] | 6.9 (2) |
10.5 (6) |
– | 11.0 (5) |
1.4 (0) |
– | – | 1.2 |
| Celeste-Tel/Diario de Avisos[p 26] | 5–16 Apr 2014 | 3,200 | ? | 24.9 16 |
24.3 21 |
20.9 17 |
13.0 6 |
3.9 0 |
3.0 0 |
3.1 0 |
4.1 0 |
0.5 0 |
– | – | – | – | 0.6 |
| Focus Investigación/CC[p 27] | 7 Dec 2013 | 3,200 | ? | 20.5 14 |
22.4 19 |
20.0 17 |
? 4 |
– | – | – | 11.3 6 |
– | – | – | – | – | 1.9 |
| Hamalgama Métrica/La Provincia[p 28][p 29] | 25 Nov–5 Dec 2013 | 1,600 | 55.0 | 29.0 20 |
23.2 20 |
19.5 14/15 |
11.4 5/6 |
2.2 0 |
2.1 0 |
2.7 0 |
3.7 0 |
0.5 0 |
– | – | – | – | 5.8 |
| Demométrica/PSOE[p 30] | 21 Nov–4 Dec 2013 | 2,500 | ? | 23.3 13 |
24.9 21 |
22.7 17 |
10.0 6 |
– | – | – | 6.3 3 |
– | – | – | – | – | 1.6 |
| NC Report/La Razón[p 31][p 32] | 15 Oct–12 Nov 2013 | ? | ? | ? 17/18 |
? 23/25 |
? 14/15 |
? 3/4 |
– | – | – | ? 1/2 |
– | – | – | – | – | ? |
| NC Report/La Razón[p 33][p 34][p 35] | 15 Apr–10 May 2013 | 300 | ? | 27.6 18/19 |
26.7 22/24 |
19.7 14/15 |
? 3/4 |
– | – | – | ? 1/2 |
– | – | – | – | – | 0.9 |
| 2011 general election | 20 Nov 2011 | N/a | 59.6 | 48.0 (33) |
15.5 (9) |
24.9 (18) |
[d] | – | [a] | 2.6 (0) |
4.3 (0) |
– | – | – | – | – | 23.1 |
| 2011 regional election | 22 May 2011 | N/a | 58.9 | 31.9 21 |
24.9 21 |
21.0 15 |
9.1 3 |
2.1 0 |
2.1 0 |
1.0 0 |
0.8 0 |
0.5 0 |
– | – | – | – | 7.0 |
Voting preferences
The table below lists raw, unweighted voting preferences.
| Polling firm/Commissioner | Fieldwork date | Sample size | |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
 |
 |
Lead |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2015 regional election[e] | 24 May 2015 | N/a | 11.1 | 10.9 | 11.9 | 6.1 | 0.5 | 1.3 | 8.7 | 3.6 | 0.4 | N/a | 39.0 | 0.8 |
| CIS[p 13] | 23 Mar–19 Apr 2015 | 1,723 | 10.1 | 9.1 | 11.5 | 1.9 | 0.4 | 1.9 | 8.9 | 5.6 | – | 40.6 | 7.1 | 1.6 |
| 2014 EP election[e] | 25 May 2014 | N/a | 8.7 | 4.5 | 8.2 | – | 2.6 | 3.9 | 4.1 | 0.5 | – | N/a | 62.2 | 0.5 |
| 2011 general election[e] | 20 Nov 2011 | N/a | 30.1 | 9.7 | 15.6 | [d] | 1.7 | 2.7 | – | – | – | N/a | 36.3 | 14.5 |
| 2011 regional election[e] | 22 May 2011 | N/a | 19.6 | 15.3 | 12.9 | 5.6 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.3 | – | – | N/a | 36.8 | 4.3 |
Victory preferences
The table below lists opinion polling on the victory preferences for each party in the event of a regional election taking place.
| Polling firm/Commissioner | Fieldwork date | Sample size | |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Other/ None |
|
Lead |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CIS[p 13] | 23 Mar–19 Apr 2015 | 1,723 | 13.0 | 11.3 | 16.1 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 2.8 | 9.4 | 6.4 | 6.8 | 31.7 | 3.1 |
Victory likelihood
The table below lists opinion polling on the perceived likelihood of victory for each party in the event of a regional election taking place.
| Polling firm/Commissioner | Fieldwork date | Sample size | |
|
|
|
|
|
|
Other/ None |
|
Lead |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CIS[p 13] | 23 Mar–19 Apr 2015 | 1,723 | 18.3 | 25.2 | 13.8 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 3.7 | 0.8 | 2.2 | 34.7 | 6.9 |
Preferred President
The table below lists opinion polling on leader preferences to become president of the Canary Islands.
| Polling firm/Commissioner | Fieldwork date | Sample size | |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Other/ None/ Not care |
|
Lead |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Navarro PP |
Clavijo CC |
Hernández PSOE |
Rodríguez NCa |
Trujillo IUC |
Santana Podemos |
Rodríguez C's |
Curbelo ASG | ||||||
| Perfiles/Diario de Avisos[p 6] | 4–14 May 2015 | 3,000 | 7.5 | 11.8 | 7.2 | 7.7 | – | 6.0 | 3.9 | 0.4 | 55.5 | 4.1 | |
| Perfiles/Diario de Avisos[p 11] | 7–20 Apr 2015 | 3,000 | 5.3 | 11.1 | 9.5 | 6.6 | – | 5.6 | 3.2 | 0.2 | 4.9 | 53.6 | 1.6 |
| CIS[f][p 13] | 23 Mar–19 Apr 2015 | 1,723 | 4.3 | 11.5 | 8.8 | 5.6 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 1.0 | – | 4.3 | 62.3 | 2.7 |
Results
Overall
 | ||||||
| Parties and alliances | Popular vote | Seats | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Votes | % | ±pp | Total | +/− | ||
| Spanish Socialist Workers' Party (PSOE) | 182,006 | 19.89 | −1.09 | 15 | ±0 | |
| People's Party (PP) | 170,129 | 18.59 | −13.35 | 12 | −9 | |
| Canarian Coalition–Canarian Nationalist Party (CCa–PNC) | 166,979 | 18.25 | −6.69 | 18 | −3 | |
| We Can (Podemos) | 133,044 | 14.54 | New | 7 | +7 | |
| New Canaries (NCa) | 93,634 | 10.23 | +1.81 | 5 | +3 | |
| Citizens–Party of the Citizenry (C's) | 54,375 | 5.94 | New | 0 | ±0 | |
| United (Unidos)1 | 32,868 | 3.59 | +1.66 | 0 | −1 | |
| Canaries Decides (IUC–LV–UP–ALTER)2 | 20,155 | 2.20 | −0.76 | 0 | ±0 | |
| Animalist Party Against Mistreatment of Animals (PACMA) | 11,296 | 1.23 | +0.93 | 0 | ±0 | |
| Union, Progress and Democracy (UPyD) | 7,819 | 0.85 | −0.15 | 0 | ±0 | |
| Canarian Nationalist Alternative (ANC) | 5,635 | 0.62 | −0.12 | 0 | ±0 | |
| Gomera Socialist Group (ASG) | 5,090 | 0.56 | New | 3 | +3 | |
| More for Telde (+xT) | 3,390 | 0.37 | New | 0 | ±0 | |
| Communist Party of the Canarian People (PCPC) | 1,861 | 0.20 | −0.06 | 0 | ±0 | |
| For a Fairer World (PUM+J) | 1,827 | 0.20 | +0.04 | 0 | ±0 | |
| Vox (Vox) | 1,814 | 0.20 | New | 0 | ±0 | |
| Movement for the Unity of the Canarian People (MUPC) | 1,777 | 0.19 | +0.05 | 0 | ±0 | |
| Zero Cuts (Recortes Cero) | 1,498 | 0.16 | New | 0 | ±0 | |
| Municipal Assemblies of Fuerteventura (AMF) | 1,447 | 0.16 | New | 0 | ±0 | |
| Blank Seats (EB) | 1,363 | 0.15 | New | 0 | ±0 | |
| Internationalist Solidarity and Self-Management (SAIn) | 330 | 0.04 | New | 0 | ±0 | |
| Blank ballots | 16,769 | 1.83 | −0.93 | |||
| Total | 915,106 | 60 | ±0 | |||
| Valid votes | 915,106 | 98.20 | +0.89 | |||
| Invalid votes | 16,770 | 1.80 | −0.89 | |||
| Votes cast / turnout | 931,876 | 56.09 | −2.81 | |||
| Abstentions | 729,618 | 43.91 | +2.81 | |||
| Registered voters | 1,661,494 | |||||
| Sources[12][26] | ||||||
Footnotes:
| ||||||
Distribution by constituency
| Constituency | PSOE | PP | CC–PNC | Podemos | NCa | ASG | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| % | S | % | S | % | S | % | S | % | S | % | S | |
| El Hierro | 22.1 | 1 | 17.1 | − | 41.8 | 2 | 6.7 | − | 6.5 | − | ||
| Fuerteventura | 17.4 | 2 | 13.6 | 1 | 28.1 | 3 | 12.2 | 1 | 6.7 | − | ||
| Gran Canaria | 17.5 | 3 | 20.4 | 4 | 6.2 | 1 | 17.0 | 3 | 18.4 | 4 | ||
| La Gomera | 16.4 | 1 | 10.3 | − | 10.5 | − | 8.8 | − | 5.9 | − | 43.0 | 3 |
| La Palma | 24.6 | 2 | 24.7 | 3 | 30.3 | 3 | 6.5 | − | 2.8 | − | ||
| Lanzarote | 21.0 | 2 | 13.0 | 1 | 22.2 | 3 | 14.7 | 1 | 8.3 | 1 | ||
| Tenerife | 22.0 | 4 | 17.5 | 3 | 27.6 | 6 | 13.4 | 2 | 3.4 | − | ||
| Total | 19.9 | 15 | 18.6 | 12 | 18.2 | 18 | 14.5 | 7 | 10.2 | 5 | 0.6 | 3 |
| Sources[12][26] | ||||||||||||
