2014 Rhode Island gubernatorial election
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The 2014 Rhode Island gubernatorial election took place on November 4, 2014, to elect the governor of Rhode Island, concurrently with the election of Rhode Island's Class II U.S. Senate seat, as well as other elections to the United States Senate in other states and elections to the United States House of Representatives and various state and local elections.
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November 4, 2014
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Raimondo: 30–40% 40–50% 50–60% 60–70% 70–80% 80–90% Fung: 30–40% 40–50% 50–60% 60–70% Healey: 30–40% 40–50% Tie: No votes | |||||||||||||||||||||
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Incumbent Democratic governor Lincoln Chafee was eligible to run for re-election to a second term but decided to retire. He had been elected as an independent candidate and became a Democrat in 2013.[1] In primary elections held on September 9, 2014, the Democrats nominated Rhode Island Treasurer Gina Raimondo and the Republicans nominated Cranston Mayor Allan Fung. Also on the ballot were Robert J. Healey of the Moderate Party and two Independent candidates.
Raimondo won the election, becoming the first Democrat to be elected governor since Bruce Sundlun in 1992, as Chafee had been elected as an independent in 2010. Raimondo became the first female governor in Rhode Island history. Democrats won Newport County for the first time in a gubernatorial election since 1998, and Bristol and Washington counties since 1992.
Background
In the 2010 gubernatorial election, Republican incumbent Donald Carcieri was term-limited and unable to seek a third term in office. The Republicans nominated businessman John Robitaille and the Democrats nominated State Treasurer Frank T. Caprio. Also contesting the election were Moderate Party nominee Ken Block and Lincoln Chafee, who served as a Republican U.S. senator from 1999 to 2007. After losing a bid for re-election in 2006, Chafee left the Republican Party and became an Independent, running for governor as such. After a close three-way race between Chafee, Robitaille and Caprio, Chafee won the election with a plurality, taking 36% to Robitaille's 34%, Caprio's 23% and Block's 6%.
After constant speculation during his term, Chafee officially joined the Democratic Party on May 30, 2013. He had previously indicated that he might run for re-election as an Independent or a Democrat.[2] In the face of low approval ratings, polling showing him trailing in both the Democratic primary and the general election, and with weak fundraising, Chafee announced on September 4, 2013, that he would not run for re-election.[3][4] Chafee thus became just the fourth governor in the history of Rhode Island to decline to seek a second term, after Byron Diman in 1847, Royal C. Taft in 1889 and William S. Flynn in 1924.[5]
Democratic primary
Gina Raimondo, Treasurer of Rhode Island, and Angel Taveras, mayor of Providence, announced their campaigns in late 2013 and the race initially seemed to be between the more fiscally moderate Raimondo and the more progressive Taveras. However, the entry of Clay Pell, an Obama administration official and grandson of Claiborne Pell, into the race complicated things. Unions who had criticized Raimondo for cutting pension benefits and investing in hedge funds during her tenure as Treasurer and for fundraising from Wall Street and national lobbyists were split on whether to back Taveras or Pell. A coalition of unions including firefighters, police, supermarket clerks, and city employees backed Taveras, whereas the powerful teachers' unions backed Pell, unimpressed with Taveras' support for charter schools. Raimondo drew support from non-union and private sector workers and some private sector unions including iron workers. Pell spent over $3.4 million of his own money and ran a positive campaign, but he was much criticized for his inexperience and lack of ties to Rhode Island. Taveras emphasised his background as the son of poor Dominican immigrants to appeal to Latino and working-class voters. All three candidates agreed not to seek the endorsement of the state Democratic Party. Ultimately, Taveras and Pell took an almost equal share of the vote as progressive Democrats split their vote between the two, allowing Raimondo to win with a plurality. Raimondo won 36 of the state's 39 municipalities. Taveras won Central Falls and Pell won Burrillville and Foster.[6]
Candidates
Declared
- Todd Giroux, contractor and independent candidate for governor in 2010[7]
- Clay Pell, former Deputy Assistant Secretary for International and Foreign Language Education in the United States Department of Education[8] and grandson of Rhode Island's longest serving senator Claiborne Pell
- Gina Raimondo, Treasurer of Rhode Island[9]
- Angel Taveras, Mayor of Providence[10]
Withdrew
- Ernie Almonte, former auditor general of Rhode Island (running for Treasurer of Rhode Island)[11][12]
- Lincoln Chafee, incumbent governor[4]
Declined
- Patrick C. Lynch, former attorney general of Rhode Island[11]
- Elizabeth H. Roberts, Lieutenant Governor of Rhode Island[13]
- Robert Weygand, former U.S. representative[14]
Polling
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Todd Giroux |
Clay Pell |
Gina Raimondo |
Angel Taveras |
Other/ Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fleming & Associates[15] | August 11–14, 2014 | 503 | ± 4.38% | 1.4% | 25.6% | 32.2% | 26.8% | 12.9% |
| Fleming & Associates[16] | May 27–30, 2014 | 506 | ± 4.38% | 1.6% | 11.5% | 29.2% | 33.4% | 24.3% |
| Brown University[17] | April 3–5, 2014 | 395 | ± 4.9% | — | 9.6% | 29.4% | 25.8% | 35.2% |
| Fleming & Associates[18] | February 3–6, 2014 | 503 | ± 4.38% | 1.2% | 14.7% | 27% | 31.2% | 25.9% |
| Brown University[19] | October 2–5, 2013 | 433 | ± 4.5% | — | — | 42% | 33.6% | 24.4% |
| Garin-Hart-Yang^[20] | September 10–12, 2013 | 400 | ± 5% | — | — | 30% | 49% | 21% |
- ^ Internal poll for the Angel Taveras Campaign
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Lincoln Chafee |
Ernie Almonte |
Gina Raimondo |
Angel Taveras |
Other/ Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Public Policy Polling[21] | January 28–30, 2013 | 320 | ± 5.5% | 22% | 11% | 35% | 19% | 12% |
| — | 9% | 44% | 35% | 13% |
Results
- Raimondo—30–40%
- Raimondo—40–50%
- Raimondo—50–60%
- Raimondo—60–70%
- Pell—30–40%
- Pell—40–50%
- Taveras—50–60%
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Democratic | Gina Raimondo | 53,990 | 42.15 | |
| Democratic | Angel Taveras | 37,326 | 29.14 | |
| Democratic | Clay Pell | 34,515 | 26.94 | |
| Democratic | Todd Giroux | 2,264 | 1.77 | |
| Total votes | 128,095 | 100.00 | ||
Republican primary
Candidates
Declared
- Ken Block, Moderate Party nominee for governor in 2010[23]
- Allan Fung, Mayor of Cranston[24]
Declined
- Scott Avedisian, Mayor of Warwick[25]
- Brendan Doherty, former Superintendent of the Rhode Island State Police and nominee for Rhode Island's 1st congressional district in 2012[26]
- Barry Hinckley, businessman and nominee for the U.S. Senate in 2012[27]
- John Robitaille, former aide to Governor Donald Carcieri and nominee for governor in 2010[28]
Polling
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Ken Block |
Allan Fung |
Other/ Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fabrizio, Lee & Ass.*[29] | April 2014 | 300 | ± ? | 46% | 37% | 17% |
| Brown University[17] | April 3–5, 2014 | 86 | ± 10.6% | 36% | 31.4% | 38.5% |
| Fabrizio, Lee & Ass.*[29] | October 2013 | ? | ± ? | 25% | 53% | 22% |
- * Internal poll for the Ken Block campaign
Results
- Fung—50–60%
- Fung—60–70%
- Fung—70–80%
- Block—50–60%
- Block—60–70%
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Republican | Allan Fung | 17,530 | 54.9 | |
| Republican | Ken Block | 14,399 | 45.1 | |
| Total votes | 31,929 | 100.0 | ||
Other parties
Candidates
Declared
- Robert J. Healey (Moderate), perennial candidate[30]
- Kate Fletcher (Independent)[31]
- Leon Kayarian (Independent)[31]
Withdrew
Removed from ballot
- Thomas Davis (Independent)
- Christopher Reynolds (Independent)
- Anna Winograd Vrankar (Compassion)
Declined
- Gina Raimondo (Independent), Democratic Treasurer of Rhode Island (won the Democratic primary)[33]
General election
Campaign
Union voter dissatisfaction with Raimondo carried over into the general election, with one poll finding they backed Republican Allan Fung over her, 42% to 30%.[34] Moderate Party nominee Robert J. Healey won 22% of the vote, having spent $35.31 to receive 67,707 votes, or $0.0005 (five ten-thousandths of a dollar) for each vote he received.[35] He later joked, "It's amazing what $35 can do. As I've been saying, if we only spent $75, $80, we might've won the race."[36]
Debates
- Complete video of debate, October 21, 2014
Predictions
| Source | Ranking | As of |
|---|---|---|
| The Cook Political Report[37] | Tossup | November 3, 2014 |
| Sabato's Crystal Ball[38] | Lean D | November 3, 2014 |
| Rothenberg Political Report[39] | Tilt D | November 3, 2014 |
| Real Clear Politics[40] | Tossup | November 3, 2014 |
Polling
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Gina Raimondo (D) |
Allan Fung (R) |
Robert J. Healey (M) |
Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brown University[41] | October 25–26, 2014 | 500 | ± 4.4% | 40% | 39% | 13% | 1%[42] | 11% |
| CBS News/NYT/YouGov[43] | October 16–23, 2014 | 866 | ± 6% | 40% | 35% | — | 4% | 21% |
| Brown University[44] | October 14–17, 2014 | 1,129 | ± 2.9% | 42% | 31% | 9% | 1%[45] | 18% |
| Fleming & Associates[46] | October 6–9, 2014 | 505 | ± 4% | 42% | 36% | 8% | 1%[47] | 14% |
| CBS News/NYT/YouGov[48] | September 20–October 1, 2014 | 724 | ± 4% | 41% | 38% | — | 2% | 19% |
| Rasmussen Reports[49] | September 23–25, 2014 | 750 | ± 4% | 42% | 37% | — | 11% | 11% |
| Public Opinion Strategies*[50] | September 10–11, 2014 | 500 | ± 4.38% | 42% | 42% | — | — | 16% |
| Brown University[19] | October 2–5, 2013 | 638 | ± 3.9% | 38% | 36% | — | — | 27% |
| Public Policy Polling[21] | January 28–30, 2013 | 614 | ± 4% | 46% | 27% | — | 12%[51] | 14% |
- * Internal poll for the Allan Fung campaign
With Raimondo
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Gina Raimondo (D) |
Brendan Doherty (R) |
Ken Block (I) |
Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Public Policy Polling[21] | January 28–30, 2013 | 614 | ± 4% | 44% | 32% | 10% | 14% |
With Taveras
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Angel Taveras (D) |
Brendan Doherty (R) |
Ken Block (I) |
Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Public Policy Polling[21] | January 28–30, 2013 | 614 | ± 4% | 39% | 35% | 13% | 13% |
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Angel Taveras (D) |
Allan Fung (R) |
Ken Block (I) |
Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CBS News/NYT/YouGov[53] | August 18–September 2, 2014 | 764 | ± 4% | 33% | 33% | — | 20% | 14% |
| Brown University[19] | October 2–5, 2013 | 638 | ± 3.9% | 42% | 33% | — | — | 26% |
| Public Policy Polling[21] | January 28–30, 2013 | 614 | ± 4% | 37% | 31% | 15% | — | 17% |
With Chafee
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Lincoln Chafee (D) |
Brendan Doherty (R) |
Ken Block (I) |
Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Public Policy Polling[21] | January 28–30, 2013 | 614 | ± 4% | 35% | 39% | 13% | 9% |
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Lincoln Chafee (D) |
Allan Fung (R) |
Ken Block (I) |
Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Public Policy Polling[21] | January 28–30, 2013 | 614 | ± 4% | 32% | 36% | 16% | 15% |
Four-way race
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Lincoln Chafee (I) |
Gina Raimondo (D) |
Brendan Doherty (R) |
Ken Block (I) |
Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Public Policy Polling[21] | January 28–30, 2013 | 614 | ± 4% | 22% | 32% | 28% | 8% | 9% |
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Lincoln Chafee (I) |
Gina Raimondo (D) |
Allan Fung (R) |
Ken Block (I) |
Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Public Policy Polling[21] | January 28–30, 2013 | 614 | ± 4% | 21% | 35% | 23% | 10% | 12% |
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Lincoln Chafee (I) |
Angel Taveras (D) |
Brendan Doherty (R) |
Ken Block (I) |
Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Public Policy Polling[21] | January 28–30, 2013 | 614 | ± 4% | 23% | 26% | 31% | 10% | 10% |
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Lincoln Chafee (I) |
Angel Taveras (D) |
Allan Fung (R) |
Ken Block (I) |
Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Public Policy Polling[21] | January 28–30, 2013 | 614 | ± 4% | 20% | 26% | 26% | 13% | 14% |
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Gina Raimondo (D) |
Angel Taveras (D) |
Allan Fung (R) |
Ken Block (I) |
Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brown University[19] | October 2–5, 2013 | 638 | ± 4.5% | 27% | 21% | 19% | 9% | 24% |
Results
|
Democratic
Gain from Republican/Independent |
Republican
Hold
|
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | ±% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Democratic | Gina Raimondo | 131,899 | 40.70% | +17.65% | |
| Republican | Allan Fung | 117,428 | 36.24% | +2.67% | |
| Moderate | Robert J. Healey | 69,278 | 21.38% | +14.91% | |
| Independent | Kate Fletcher | 3,483 | 1.07% | N/A | |
| Independent | Leon Kayarian | 1,228 | 0.38% | N/A | |
| Write-in | 739 | 0.23% | N/A | ||
| Turnout | 324,055 | 100% | N/A | ||
| Democratic hold | |||||
By county
| Gina Raimondo Democratic |
Allan Fung Republican |
Robert J. Healey Moderate |
Others | Total | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| County | Votes | % | Votes | % | Votes | % | Votes | % | |
| Bristol | 7,312 | 39.88% | 4,806 | 26.21% | 6,060 | 33.05% | 158 | 0.86% | 18,336 |
| Kent | 20,176 | 34.19% | 23,009 | 38.99% | 14,937 | 25.31% | 893 | 1.51% | 59,015 |
| Newport | 12,888 | 43.74% | 10,122 | 34.35% | 5,898 | 20.01% | 560 | 1.90% | 29,468 |
| Providence | 73,262 | 43.16% | 61,519 | 36.24% | 32,086 | 18.90% | 2,883 | 1.70% | 169,750 |
| Washington | 18,261 | 38.46% | 17,972 | 37.85% | 10,297 | 21.68% | 956 | 2.01% | 47,486 |
Counties that flipped from Republican to Democratic
Counties that flipped from Independent to Democratic
- Bristol (largest municipality: Bristol)
- Providence (largest municipality: Providence)
- Washington (largest municipality: South Kingstown)
By municipality
| Gina Raimondo Democratic |
Allan Fung Republican |
Robert J. Healey Moderate |
Others | Total | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Municipality | Votes | % | Votes | % | Votes | % | Votes | % | |
| Barrington | 3,566 | 49.6% | 2,022 | 28.1% | 1,554 | 21.6% | 50 | 0.7% | 7,192 |
| Bristol | 2,628 | 35.7% | 1,959 | 26.6% | 2,709 | 36.8% | 75 | 1.0% | 7,368 |
| Burrillville | 1,334 | 28.6% | 1,861 | 39.9% | 1,371 | 29.4% | 104 | 2.2% | 4,670 |
| Central Falls | 1,359 | 66.4% | 358 | 17.5% | 280 | 13.7% | 50 | 2.4% | 2,047 |
| Charlestown | 1,177 | 38.0% | 1,137 | 36.7% | 728 | 23.5% | 59 | 1.9% | 3,101 |
| Coventry | 3,812 | 30.2% | 4,979 | 39.4% | 3,610 | 28.6% | 233 | 1.8% | 12,634 |
| Cranston | 8,159 | 30.2% | 14,853 | 55.0% | 3,716 | 13.8% | 278 | 1.0% | 27,006 |
| Cumberland | 4,661 | 39.9% | 4,325 | 37.0% | 2,478 | 21.2% | 220 | 1.9% | 11,684 |
| East Greenwich | 2,364 | 42.3% | 2,315 | 41.4% | 848 | 15.2% | 65 | 1.2% | 5,592 |
| East Providence | 5,958 | 43.5% | 3,718 | 27.1% | 3,804 | 27.8% | 225 | 1.6% | 13,705 |
| Exeter | 771 | 28.4% | 1,147 | 42.3% | 742 | 27.3% | 53 | 2.0% | 2,713 |
| Foster | 534 | 28.0% | 732 | 38.3% | 604 | 31.6% | 40 | 2.1% | 1,910 |
| Glocester | 963 | 27.2% | 1,503 | 42.5% | 1,019 | 28.8% | 55 | 1.5% | 3,540 |
| Hopkinton | 836 | 30.9% | 1,080 | 39.9% | 723 | 26.7% | 68 | 2.3% | 2,707 |
| Jamestown | 1,325 | 46.2% | 901 | 31.4% | 590 | 20.6% | 63 | 1.9% | 2,879 |
| Johnston | 3,270 | 32.6% | 4,502 | 44.9% | 2,126 | 21.2% | 134 | 1.5% | 10,032 |
| Lincoln | 2,974 | 36.2% | 3,249 | 39.6% | 1,870 | 22.8% | 119 | 1.4% | 8,212 |
| Little Compton | 674 | 41.2% | 648 | 39.7% | 288 | 17.6% | 22 | 1.4% | 1,632 |
| Middletown | 2,241 | 41.9% | 1,902 | 35.5% | 1,090 | 20.4% | 119 | 2.3% | 5,352 |
| Narragansett | 2,395 | 39.3% | 2,410 | 39.6% | 1,198 | 19.7% | 84 | 1.4% | 6,087 |
| New Shoreham | 365 | 50.3% | 174 | 24.0% | 173 | 23.8% | 14 | 1.9% | 726 |
| Newport | 3,734 | 49.4% | 2,312 | 30.6% | 1,331 | 17.6% | 177 | 2.3% | 7,554 |
| North Kingstown | 4,166 | 37.6% | 4,305 | 38.8% | 2,422 | 21.8% | 195 | 1.7% | 11,088 |
| North Providence | 4,013 | 36.1% | 4,505 | 40.6% | 2,414 | 21.7% | 170 | 1.6% | 11,102 |
| North Smithfield | 1,456 | 33.2% | 1,870 | 42.7% | 986 | 22.5% | 68 | 1.6% | 4,380 |
| Pawtucket | 7,144 | 51.8% | 3,391 | 24.6% | 2,960 | 21.5% | 284 | 2.1% | 13,779 |
| Portsmouth | 2,824 | 41.1% | 2,477 | 36.1% | 1,426 | 20.8% | 136 | 2.0% | 6,863 |
| Providence | 24,662 | 65.0% | 8,445 | 22.3% | 4,116 | 10.8% | 720 | 1.9% | 37,943 |
| Richmond | 851 | 29.5% | 1,153 | 40.0% | 825 | 28.6% | 53 | 1.8% | 2,882 |
| Scituate | 1,170 | 25.5% | 2,203 | 48.1% | 1,146 | 25.0% | 63 | 1.3% | 4,582 |
| Smithfield | 2,587 | 33.7% | 3,241 | 42.2% | 1,725 | 22.5% | 119 | 1.6% | 7,672 |
| South Kingstown | 4,606 | 43.1% | 3,562 | 33.3% | 2,291 | 21.4% | 233 | 2.2% | 10,692 |
| Tiverton | 2,090 | 39.8% | 1,882 | 35.9% | 1,173 | 22.4% | 103 | 2.0% | 5,248 |
| Warren | 1,118 | 29.6% | 825 | 21.9% | 1,797 | 47.6% | 33 | 0.9% | 3,773 |
| Warwick | 10,559 | 35.0% | 11,383 | 37.7% | 7,795 | 25.8% | 428 | 1.4% | 30,165 |
| West Greenwich | 605 | 25.0% | 1,097 | 45.3% | 684 | 28.3% | 33 | 1.3% | 2,419 |
| West Warwick | 2,836 | 34.6% | 3,235 | 39.4% | 2,000 | 24.4% | 134 | 1.6% | 8,205 |
| Westerly | 3,094 | 41.3% | 3,004 | 40.1% | 1,195 | 16.0% | 197 | 2.6% | 7,490 |
| Woonsocket | 3,018 | 40.6% | 2,763 | 37.2% | 1,471 | 19.8% | 182 | 2.4% | 7,434 |