2014 United States Senate election in Alaska
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The 2014 United States Senate election in Alaska took place on November 4, 2014, to elect a member of the United States Senate to represent the State of Alaska, concurrently with the election of the governor of Alaska, as well as other elections to the United States Senate in other states and elections to the United States House of Representatives and various state and local elections.
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November 4, 2014
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Sullivan: 40–50% 50–60% 60–70% 70–80% Begich: 40–50% 50–60% 60–70% 70–80% | |||||||||||||||||
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This was one of the seven Democratic-held Senate seats up for election in a state that Mitt Romney won in the 2012 presidential election. Incumbent Senator Mark Begich ran for re-election to a second term in office. Primary elections were held on August 19, 2014. Begich was renominated and the Republicans picked former Commissioner of the Alaska Department of Natural Resources Dan Sullivan.[1]
On November 7, Sullivan held an 8,000-vote lead,[2] which on November 11 had shrunk slightly to 7,991 votes.[3] Multiple media outlets called the race for Sullivan on November 12[4][5] and Begich conceded to Sullivan on November 17.[6][7] Republican Sean Parnell simultaneously lost the gubernatorial election to independent candidate Bill Walker, marking just the fifth time in the last 50 years in which U.S. Senate and gubernatorial incumbents from different political parties were simultaneously defeated in the same state.[8][a]
Background
Democrat Mark Begich won the 2008 election, defeating seven-term Republican incumbent Ted Stevens by just under 4,000 votes. A few days before the election, Stevens had been convicted of a felony, but the case against Stevens was later dismissed by the Justice Department after the election, when serious issues of prosecutorial misconduct emerged. In the 2012 presidential election, Mitt Romney easily won Alaska by 13 points, which made Begich a prime target during an election cycle in which Republicans needed a net gain of six seats to retake control of the Senate.
Democratic–Libertarian–Independence primary
Candidates from the Alaska Democratic Party, Alaska Libertarian Party and Alaskan Independence Party appear on the same ballot, with the highest-placed candidate from each party receiving that party's nomination.
Democratic candidates
Declared
- Mark Begich, incumbent U.S. Senator[9]
- William Bryk, attorney and perennial candidate from New York[10]
Alaskan Independence candidates
Declared
- Zachary Kile, orthopedic surgeon[11]
- Vic Kohring, former Republican state representative[11]
Libertarian candidates
Declared
- Mark Fish, former chairman of the Alaska Libertarian Party, former Sarah Palin and Joe Miller staffer and Republican nominee for the state house in 2008[12]
- Scott Kohlhaas, former chairman of the Alaska Libertarian Party and perennial candidate[13]
- Thom Walker, University of Alaska Brooks Range research station operations manager[12][14]
Declined
- Joe Miller, former magistrate judge, Republican nominee for the U.S. Senate in 2010 and candidate for the U.S. Senate in 2014[15][16]
Results
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Democratic | Mark Begich (incumbent) | 58,092 | 83.31% | |
| Libertarian | Thom Walker | 3,167 | 4.54% | |
| Independence | Vic Kohring | 2,557 | 3.67% | |
| Democratic | William Bryk | 2,024 | 2.90% | |
| Independence | Zachary Kile | 1,869 | 2.68% | |
| Libertarian | Mark Fish | 1,290 | 1.85% | |
| Libertarian | Scott Kohlhaas | 734 | 1.05% | |
| Total votes | 69,733 | 100.00% | ||
Subsequent events
In an upset, the unknown Thom Walker won the Libertarian nomination despite not campaigning and raising no money. Libertarians speculated that he was a Republican "plant" designed to keep a more viable Libertarian from winning the nomination and then taking votes away from the Republican nominee in the general election. They further speculated that Walker was chosen because he shared a surname with Bill Walker (no relation), who was running as an independent candidate in the 2014 gubernatorial election, and that voters may have been confused because Bill Walker did not appear on the primary ballot and thus they may have voted for Thom Walker in error. This confusion could have extended to the general election, with voters picking Thom Walker for the Senate, thinking he was Bill Walker.[18]
Walker withdrew from the race on August 27, saying that "my work location and schedule will have me out of town, out of contact and off the campaign trail for too long." The Libertarian executive board replaced him as the nominee with Mark Fish.[19]
Alaskan Independence nominee Vic Kohring, who had changed his voter registration from Republican to Alaskan Independence just before the filing deadline, withdrew from the race on September 2 and endorsed Dan Sullivan. The Alaskan Independence Party did not name a replacement nominee before the deadline for them to do so had passed.[20]
Republican primary
Candidates
Declared
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- John Jaramillo, air force veteran[21]
- Joe Miller, former U.S. magistrate judge and nominee for the U.S. Senate in 2010[22]
- Dan Sullivan, former Commissioner of the Alaska Department of Natural Resources and former Alaska Attorney General[23]
- Mead Treadwell, Lieutenant Governor of Alaska[24]
Withdrew
Declined
- Timothy Mark Burgess, judge on the United States District Court for the District of Alaska[27]
- Loren Leman, former lieutenant governor[28]
- Lesil McGuire, state senator[29][30]
- Sarah Palin, former Governor of Alaska and nominee for Vice President of the United States in 2008 [31]
- Sean Parnell, Governor of Alaska (ran for re-election and lost)[32]
- Dan Sullivan, Mayor of Anchorage (ran for Lieutenant Governor and lost)[33]
Filed
- Ted Stevens, former U.S. Senator. Stevens had filed to run for his old seat,[9] but he was killed in a plane crash on August 9, 2010.[34]
Endorsements
Individuals
- Sarah Palin, former Governor of Alaska and nominee for Vice President of the United States in 2008[35]
Organizations
Individuals
- Lyman Hoffman, member of the Alaska Senate (Democrat)[38]
- Condoleezza Rice, former United States Secretary of State[39]
- Tara Sweeney, co-chair of the Alaska Federation of Natives[40]
Organizations
Individuals
- Jack Coghill, former lieutenant governor and Alaska Constitutional Convention delegate[42]
- Mark R. Hamilton, former President of the University of Alaska[43]
- Ryan Stassel, snowboarder[44]
Polling
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
John Jaramillo |
Loren Leman |
Joe Miller |
Sarah Palin |
Sean Parnell |
Dan A. Sullivan |
Dan S. Sullivan |
Kathleen Tonn |
Mead Treadwell |
Other/ Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Moore Information (R-S. Sullivan)[46] | August 4–5, 2014 | 500 | — | — | — | 17% | — | — | — | 42% | — | 25% | 16% |
| Public Policy Polling[47] | July 31 – August 3, 2014 | 337 | ± 5.3% | 2% | — | 20% | — | — | — | 35% | — | 29% | 14% |
| Moore Information (R-S. Sullivan)[48] | July 29–31, 2014 | 375 | ± 5.5% | — | — | 16% | — | — | — | 35% | — | 27% | 22% |
| Hellenthal & Assoc.[49] | June 17–28, 2014 | — | — | — | — | 21% | — | — | — | 35% | — | 31% | 13% |
| Moore Information (R-S. Sullivan)[50] | June 16–18, 2014 | 500 | — | — | — | 13% | — | — | — | 36% | — | 27% | 24% |
| Dittman Research (R-A. Sullivan)[51] | May 27–29, 2014 | 500 | ± 4.4% | — | — | 12% | — | — | — | 37% | — | 35% | 16% |
| Public Policy Polling[52] | May 8–11, 2014 | 313 | ± 5.5% | 3% | — | 14% | — | — | — | 40% | — | 26% | 17% |
| Moore Information (R-S. Sullivan)[53] | April 27–28, 2014 | — | — | — | — | 12% | — | — | — | 38% | — | 22% | 29% |
| Public Policy Polling[54] | January 30 – February 1, 2014 | 442 | ± 4.7% | 2% | — | 20% | — | — | — | 30% | 4% | 25% | 19% |
| Ivan Moore[55] | December 15–22, 2013 | 335 | — | — | — | 19% | — | — | — | 29% | — | 34% | 18% |
| Public Policy Polling[56] | July 25–28, 2013 | 507 | ± 4.4% | — | — | 12% | 36% | — | — | 15% | — | 26% | 11% |
| — | — | 24% | — | — | — | 25% | — | 33% | 19% | ||||
| — | — | 30% | — | — | — | — | — | 53% | 18% | ||||
| Harper Polling[57] | May 6–7, 2013 | 379 | ± 5.0% | — | — | 14% | 32% | — | — | — | — | 30% | 24% |
| — | — | 19% | 52% | — | — | — | — | — | 29% | ||||
| Public Policy Polling[58] | February 4–5, 2013 | 537 | ± 4.2% | — | 16% | 17% | — | 24% | 19% | — | — | 14% | 11% |
| — | 20% | 19% | — | — | 29% | — | — | 23% | 9% | ||||
| Harper Polling[59] | January 29–30, 2013 | 1,157 | ± 2.9% | — | — | 12% | 27% | 32% | — | — | — | 14% | 15% |
Results
- 30–40%
- 40–50%
- 30–40%
- 40–50%
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Republican | Dan Sullivan | 44,740 | 40.05% | |
| Republican | Joe Miller | 35,904 | 32.14% | |
| Republican | Mead Treadwell | 27,807 | 24.90% | |
| Republican | John Jaramillo | 3,246 | 2.91% | |
| Total votes | 111,697 | 100.00% | ||
Independents
Candidates
Declared
Declined
- Joe Miller, former magistrate judge and Republican nominee for the U.S. Senate in 2010[63][16]
General election
Fundraising
| Candidate | Raised | Spent | Cash on Hand | Debt |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mark Begich (D) | $7,918,887 | $8,487,590 | $721,505 | 0 |
| Dan Sullivan (R) | $6,093,368 | $7,579,632 | $449,506 | $43,000 |
Debates
Begich and Sullivan participated in a televised debate regarding fisheries on August 27, 2014, at the University of Alaska Anchorage.[64] Another televised debate concerning natural resources was held on October 1 in Kodiak, Alaska.[65]
Predictions
| Source | Ranking | As of |
|---|---|---|
| The Cook Political Report[66] | Tossup | November 3, 2014 |
| Sabato's Crystal Ball[67] | Lean R (flip) | November 3, 2014 |
| Rothenberg Political Report[68] | Tilt R (flip) | November 3, 2014 |
| Real Clear Politics[69] | Tossup | November 3, 2014 |
Polling
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Mark Begich (D) |
Dan Sullivan (R) |
Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Public Policy Polling[70] | November 1–2, 2014 | 1,052 | ± 3.0% | 45% | 46% | 4%[71] | 5% |
| 46% | 47% | — | 7% | ||||
| Rasmussen Reports[72] | October 27–30, 2014 | 887 | ± 4.0% | 42% | 47% | — | 11% |
| Ivan Moore[73] | October 24–26, 2014 | 544 | — | 48% | 42% | 7% | 4% |
| CBS News/NYT/YouGov[74] | October 16–23, 2014 | 561 | ± 9.0% | 44% | 48% | 0% | 9% |
| Harstad Strategic Research[75] | October 18–22, 2014 | 700 | — | 44% | 44% | 4% | 7% |
| Hellenthal & Associates[76] | October 15–21, 2014 | 403 | ± 4.9% | 49% | 39% | 7%[77] | 6% |
| Rasmussen Reports[72] | October 8–12, 2014 | 700 | ± 4.0% | 45% | 48% | 3% | 3% |
| Fox News[78] | October 4–7, 2014 | 706 | ± 3.5% | 40% | 44% | 6%[79] | 10% |
| CNN/ORC[80] | October 1–6, 2014 | 704 LV | ± 3.5% | 44% | 50% | — | 5% |
| 875 RV | ± 3.4% | 44% | 48% | — | 8% | ||
| Hickman Analytics[81] | September 26 – October 2, 2014 | 400 | ± 4.9% | 41% | 46% | 4%[82] | 9% |
| CBS News/New York Times[83] | September 20 – October 1, 2014 | 593 | ± 5.0% | 42% | 48% | 2% | 8% |
| Rassmussen Reports[84] | September 23–24, 2014 | 750 | ± 4.0% | 43% | 48% | 5% | 4% |
| Marc Hellenthal[85] | September 12–24, 2014 | 400 | — | 42% | 46% | 7%[86] | 5% |
| Public Policy Polling[87] | September 18–21, 2014 | 880 | ± 3.3% | 41% | 43% | 5%[88] | 11% |
| 42% | 45% | — | 13% | ||||
| Dittman[89] | September 14–17, 2014 | 800 | ± 3.5% | 43% | 49% | — | 8% |
| Hays Research/AFL-CIO[90] | September 13–14, 2014 | 500 | ± 4.4% | 41% | 36% | 23% | |
| Harstad Strategic Research[91] | September 7–10, 2014 | 709 | ± 4.0% | 45% | 40% | 7% | 8% |
| CBS News/New York Times[92] | August 18 – September 2, 2014 | 412 | ± 6.0% | 38% | 43% | 6% | 12% |
| Harstad Strategic Research[91] | August 24–27, 2014 | 807 | ± 4.0% | 41% | 40% | 10% | 8% |
| ccAdvertising[93] | August 21–24, 2014 | 4,403 | — | 31% | 42% | — | 27% |
| Rasmussen Reports[72] | August 20–21, 2014 | 750 | ± 4% | 45% | 47% | 3% | 4% |
| Public Policy Polling[47] | July 31 – August 1, 2014 | 673 | ± 3.8% | 43% | 37% | 7%[94] | 12% |
| 45% | 41% | — | 14% | ||||
| Harstad Strategic Research[91] | July 20–24, 2014 | 808 | ± 4.0% | 44% | 37% | 10% | 9% |
| CBS News/New York Times[95] | July 5–24, 2014 | 452 | ± 5.2% | 46% | 35% | 9% | 10% |
| Basswood Research[96] | June 29–30, 2014 | 500 | ± 4.4% | 40% | 45% | — | 15% |
| Moore Information (R-Sullivan)[97] | June 16–18, 2014 | 500 | ± 4.0% | 43% | 43% | — | 14% |
| Public Policy Polling[52] | May 8–11, 2014 | 582 | ± 4.1% | 42% | 37% | 7%[98] | 14% |
| Moore Information (R-Sullivan)[99] | April 27–28, 2014 | 500 | ± 4.0% | 44% | 42% | — | 14% |
| Magellan Strategies[100] | April 14, 2014 | 603 | ± 4.0% | 41% | 46% | 7% | 6% |
| Rasmussen Reports[72] | March 19–20, 2014 | 750 | ± 4.0% | 44% | 44% | 3% | 9% |
| Public Policy Polling[54] | January 30 – February 1, 2014 | 850 | ± 3.4% | 41% | 37% | 9%[101] | 13% |
| Harper Polling[102] | January 20–22, 2014 | 677 | ± 3.8% | 41% | 47% | — | 12% |
| Harper Polling[103] | September 24–25, 2013 | 731 | ± 3.6% | 43% | 41% | — | 16% |
| Public Policy Polling[56] | July 25–28, 2013 | 890 | ± 3.3% | 46% | 39% | — | 15% |
with Leman
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Mark Begich (D) |
Loren Leman (R) |
Zachary Kile (AIP) |
Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Public Policy Polling[58] | February 4–5, 2013 | 1,129 | ± 2.9% | 50% | 40% | — | — | 10% |
with Miller
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Mark Begich (D) |
Joe Miller (R) |
Zachary Kile (AIP) |
Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Public Policy Polling[47] | July 31 – August 1, 2014 | 673 | ± 3.8% | 45% | 32% | — | 12%[104] | 11% |
| Public Policy Polling[52] | May 8–11, 2014 | 582 | ± 4.1% | 43% | 27% | 4% | 2%[105] | 23% |
| Rasmussen Reports[72] | March 19–20, 2014 | 750 | ± 4% | 49% | 38% | — | 3% | 10% |
| Public Policy Polling[54] | January 30 – February 1, 2014 | 850 | ± 3.4% | 45% | 25% | 5% | 3% | 21% |
| Harper Polling[102] | January 20–22, 2014 | 677 | ± 3.76% | 51% | 32% | — | — | 17% |
| Harper Polling[103] | September 24–25, 2013 | 731 | ± 3.62% | 55% | 28% | — | — | 18% |
| Public Policy Polling[56] | July 25–28, 2013 | 890 | ± 3.3% | 55% | 32% | — | — | 13% |
| Public Policy Polling[58] | February 4–5, 2013 | 1,129 | ± 2.9% | 58% | 30% | — | — | 12% |
| Harper Polling[106] | January 29–30, 2013 | 1,157 | ± 2.88% | 52% | 29% | — | — | 19% |
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Mark Begich (D) |
Dan Sullivan (R) |
Joe Miller (I) |
Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hays Research Group[107] | February 9, 2014 | 502 | ± 3.3% | 45% | 33% | 10% | — | — |
with Palin
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Mark Begich (D) |
Sarah Palin (R) |
Zachary Kile (AIP) |
Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Public Policy Polling[52] | May 8–11, 2014 | 582 | ± 4.1% | 41% | 35% | 6% | 3%[108] | 15% |
| Public Policy Polling[54] | January 30 – February 1, 2014 | 850 | ± 3.4% | 44% | 40% | 4% | 2% | 11% |
| Hays Research Group[109] | August 14–15, 2013 | 388 | ± 4.9% | 55% | 37% | — | — | 8% |
| Public Policy Polling[56] | July 25–28, 2013 | 890 | ± 3.3% | 52% | 40% | — | — | 8% |
| Public Policy Polling[58] | February 4–5, 2013 | 1,129 | ± 2.9% | 54% | 38% | — | — | 8% |
| Harper Polling[106] | January 29–30, 2013 | 1,157 | ± 2.88% | 47% | 40% | — | — | 13% |
with Parnell
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Mark Begich (D) |
Sean Parnell (R) |
Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Public Policy Polling[58] | February 4–5, 2013 | 1,129 | ± 2.9% | 48% | 48% | 4% |
| Harper Polling[106] | January 29–30, 2013 | 1,157 | ± 2.88% | 40% | 46% | 14% |
with Dan A. Sullivan
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Mark Begich (D) |
Dan A. Sullivan (R) |
Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Public Policy Polling[58] | February 4–5, 2013 | 1,129 | ± 2.9% | 47% | 41% | 12% |
with Treadwell
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Mark Begich (D) |
Mead Treadwell (R) |
Zachary Kile (AIP) |
Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Public Policy Polling[47] | July 31 – August 1, 2014 | 673 | ± 3.8% | 42% | 37% | — | 8%[110] | 12% |
| 44% | 41% | — | — | 15% | ||||
| CBS News/New York Times[95] | July 5–24, 2014 | 452 | ± 5.8% | 47% | 45% | — | 9% | 10% |
| Public Policy Polling[52] | May 8–11, 2014 | 582 | ± 4.1% | 41% | 33% | 6% | 3%[108] | 17% |
| Rasmussen Reports[72] | March 19–20, 2014 | 750 | ± 4% | 43% | 47% | — | 3% | 6% |
| Public Policy Polling[54] | January 30 – February 1, 2014 | 850 | ± 3.4% | 43% | 37% | 5% | 2% | 13% |
| Harper Polling[102] | January 20–22, 2014 | 677 | ± 3.76% | 41% | 47% | — | — | 12% |
| Harper Polling[103] | September 24–25, 2013 | 731 | ± 3.62% | 43% | 42% | — | — | 15% |
| Hays Research Group[111] | August 14–15, 2013 | 388 | ± 4.9% | 50.4% | 38.5% | — | — | 11.1% |
| Public Policy Polling[56] | July 25–28, 2013 | 890 | ± 3.3% | 44% | 40% | — | — | 17% |
| Public Policy Polling[58] | February 4–5, 2013 | 1,129 | ± 2.9% | 47% | 39% | — | — | 14% |
| Harper Polling[106] | January 29–30, 2013 | 1,157 | ± 2.88% | 44% | 34% | — | — | 22% |
Results
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | ±% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Republican | Dan Sullivan | 135,445 | 47.96% | +1.46% | |
| Democratic | Mark Begich (incumbent) | 129,431 | 45.83% | −1.94% | |
| Libertarian | Mark Fish | 10,512 | 3.72% | +1.94% | |
| Independent | Ted Gianoutsos | 5,636 | 2.00% | +1.56% | |
| Write-in | 1,376 | 0.49% | +0.15% | ||
| Total votes | 282,400 | 100.00% | N/A | ||
| Republican gain from Democratic | |||||
Boroughs and Census Areas that flipped from Democratic to Republican
- Fairbanks North Star (largest city: Fairbanks)
- Kodiak Island (largest city: Kodiak Island)
- Petersburg
Boroughs and Census Areas that flipped Republican to Democratic
- Aleutians East Borough (largest city: Akutan)
See also
- 2014 Alaska gubernatorial election
- 2014 United States Senate elections
- 2014 United States elections
- Stubbs (cat), notable write-in candidate and honorary Mayor of Talkeetna, Alaska