2020 United States Senate election in Alaska
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The 2020 United States Senate election in Alaska was held on November 3, 2020, to elect a member of the United States Senate to represent the State of Alaska, concurrently with the nationwide presidential election, as well as other elections to the United States Senate, elections to the United States House of Representatives, and various state and local elections. Incumbent Republican Senator Dan Sullivan won re-election to a second term in office, defeating Democratic nominee Al Gross, the son of Avrum Gross, who ran as an independent candidate.[2] John Wayne Howe, the nominee of the Alaskan Independence Party, was also on the ballot and finished a distant third.
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November 3, 2020
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Sullivan: 30–40% 40–50% 50–60% 60–70% 70–80% 80–90% Gross: 30–40% 40–50% 50–60% 60–70% 70–80% >80% Tie: 40–50% No votes | ||||||||||||||||||||
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Both primaries took place on August 18, 2020.[3] Some pundits considered this to be a potential "dark horse" flip for the Democrats, as Gross did unexpectedly well[4] in polling despite Alaska usually being considered a Republican stronghold, even leading in some polls.[5] However, this lead did not materialize. Sullivan won re-election by a margin of 12.7%, triple his average lead in the pre-election polling. Sullivan also became the first candidate since 2002 to win a Senate election in Alaska with more than 50% of the vote.
Republican primary
Candidates
Nominee
- Dan Sullivan, incumbent U.S. senator[6]
Withdrawn
Endorsements
Dan Sullivan
U.S. federal officials
- Donald Trump, 45th president of the United States[9]
Individuals
- Mark Levin, conservative talk radio host[10]
Primary results
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Republican | Dan Sullivan (incumbent) | 65,257 | 100.00% | |
| Total votes | 65,257 | 100.00% | ||
Libertarian–Democratic–Independence primary
Candidates from the Alaska Democratic Party, the Alaska Libertarian Party, and the Alaskan Independence Party appear on the same ballot, with the highest-placed candidate from each party receiving that party's nomination. In October 2017, the Alaska Democratic Party sued for the right to allow non-Democrats to compete for and win the Democratic nomination, which was ultimately decided in their favor in April 2018.[12]
Democratic candidates
Nominee
- Al Gross (independent), orthopedic surgeon, commercial fisherman, and son of former Alaska Attorney General Avrum Gross[1]
Eliminated in primary
- Edgar Blatchford (Democratic), Democratic candidate in the 2016 election for the U.S. Senate, founder and former editor and publisher of Alaska Newspapers, Inc., former mayor of Seward (1999–2003) and former commissioner of the Alaska Department of Commerce, Community and Economic Development[8]
- Chris Cumings (independent), Democratic candidate in the 2018 election for Alaska's at-large congressional district and ex-bank employee[13][8]
Disqualified from the ballot
Withdrawn
- David Darden (independent), nonpartisan candidate for Anchorage Assembly District 3 Seat E in the 2018 special election[8]
Alaskan Independence candidates
Nominee
- John Howe (Alaskan Independence), machinist[14]
Endorsements
Al Gross
Local officials
- Pete Buttigieg, 2020 Democratic presidential candidate and former mayor of South Bend, Indiana (2012–2020)[15]
Individuals
- Andrew Yang, Presidential Ambassador for Global Entrepreneurship (2015–2017), 2020 Democratic presidential candidate[16]
Organizations
- 314 Action[17]
- Alaska Center[18]
- Alaska Democratic Party[19]
- DSCC[20]
- End Citizens United[21]
- Humanity Forward[16]
- J Street PAC[22]
- Jewish Democratic Council of America[23]
- The Lincoln Project[24]
- Orthopaedic PAC[25]
- Planned Parenthood Action Fund[26]
Unions
Primary results
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Independent | Al Gross | 50,047 | 79.87% | |
| Democratic | Edgar Blatchford | 5,463 | 8.72% | |
| Independence | John Howe | 4,165 | 6.65% | |
| Independent | Christopher Cumings | 2,989 | 4.77% | |
| Total votes | 62,664 | 100.00% | ||
Other candidates
Green Party
Nominee
- Jed Whittaker, Green nominee in the 1996 United States Senate election in Alaska and salvage company owner (write-in candidate)[28][29]
Independent
Declared
- Sidney "Sid" Hill, Independent write-in candidate for the 2018 election in Alaska's at-large congressional district, Independent write-in candidate for the 2014 United States Senate election in Alaska and LaRouchite (write-in candidate)[28][29][30]
- Karen Nanouk (write-in candidate)[29]
Withdrawn
General election
Issues
Pebble Mine
Before the election, the Trump administration considered granting a permit for the construction of Pebble Mine, a copper, gold, and molybdenum mine in Bristol Bay.[33] Gross and Sullivan were both critical of the mine by August 2020, citing environmental concerns.[34][35] In September 2020, recordings were released in which executives Tom Collier and Ron Thiessen stated that Alaska's senators, including Sullivan, would not take any concrete steps to oppose the mine despite their stated opposition.[36] Gross used the recordings to attack Sullivan, claiming that Sullivan actually supported Pebble Mine. In response, Sullivan clarified his opposition to the mine.[37] The mine was a major topic during the Senate debate on October 10. In the debate, Gross attacked Sullivan for being insufficiently opposed to the mine, while Sullivan defended his opposition.[38]
Predictions
| Source | Ranking | As of |
|---|---|---|
| The Cook Political Report[39] | Lean R | October 29, 2020 |
| FiveThirtyEight[40] | Likely R | November 2, 2020 |
| Economist[41] | Lean R | November 2, 2020 |
| Daily Kos[42] | Lean R | October 30, 2020 |
| DDHQ[43] | Lean R | November 3, 2020 |
| Inside Elections[44] | Lean R | October 28, 2020 |
| Sabato's Crystal Ball[45] | Lean R | November 2, 2020 |
| RCP[46] | Lean R | October 23, 2020 |
| Politico[47] | Lean R | November 2, 2020 |
Additional general election endorsements
Dan Sullivan (R)
U.S. federal officials
- Lisa Murkowski, U.S. senator from Alaska (2002–present)[48]
- Tara Sweeney, Assistant Secretary of the Interior for Indian Affairs[49]
Organizations
Labor unions
Newspapers
Al Gross (I)
U.S. senators
- Kamala Harris, U.S. senator from California (2017–present), Democratic Party's nominee for vice president in the 2020 election[55]
- Chuck Schumer, U.S. senator from New York (1999–present), Senate Majority Leader (2020-present), Senate Minority Leader (2017–2020), Member of the U.S. House of Representatives from New York's 9th congressional district (1993–1999), New York's 10th congressional district (1983–1993), New York's 16th congressional district (1981–1983)[56]
State executives
- Tony Knowles, Governor of Alaska (1994–2002), Mayor of Anchorage (1981–1987)[57]
Organizations
- Demand Universal Healthcare[58]
- Democratic Majority for Israel[59]
- Natural Resources Defense Council Action Fund[60]
Unions
- National Education Association of Alaska[61]
Polls
Graphical summary
View source data.
Polling
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[c] |
Margin of error |
Dan Sullivan (R) |
Al Gross (I) |
John Howe (AI) |
Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gravis Marketing[62] | October 26–28, 2020 | 770 (LV) | ± 3.5% | 48% | 45% | – | – | 7% |
| Public Policy Polling (D)[63][A] | October 19–20, 2020 | 800 (V) | ± 3.5% | 44% | 41% | 5% | – | 10% |
| Change Research (I)[64][B] | October 16–19, 2020 | 1,076 (LV) | ± 4% | 47% | 44% | 3% | – | 5% |
| Siena College/NYT Upshot[65] | October 9–14, 2020 | 423 (LV) | ± 5.7% | 45% | 37% | 10% | 2%[d] | 7%[e] |
| Harstad Strategic Research, Inc. (I)[66][B] | October 10–13, 2020 | 606 (LV) | ± 4% | 46% | 47% | – | – | – |
| Harstad Strategic Research, Inc. (I)[66][B] | October 2–6, 2020 | 600 (LV) | – | 46% | 46% | – | – | – |
| Patinkin Research Strategies[67] | September 30 – October 4, 2020 | 600 (LV) | ± 4% | 46% | 47% | – | 2%[f] | 5% |
| Alaska Survey Research[68] | September 26 – October 4, 2020 | 696 (LV) | – | 48% | 44% | – | – | 8% |
| Harstad Strategic Research, Inc. (I)[69][C] | September 20–23, 2020 | 602 (LV) | ± 4% | 46% | 45% | – | – | – |
| Public Policy Polling (D)[70] | August 27–28, 2020 | 638 (V) | ± 3.9% | 43% | 43% | – | – | 14% |
| Public Policy Polling[71][D] | July 7–8, 2020 | 1,081 (V) | ± 3.0% | 39% | 34% | – | – | 27% |
| Alaska Survey Research[72] | June 23 – July 7, 2020 | 663 (LV) | ± 3.8% | 53% | 40% | – | – | 7% |
Hypothetical polling
with Forrest Dunbar
with Forrest Dunbar as an independent
Results
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | ±% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Republican | Dan Sullivan (incumbent) | 191,112 | 53.90% | +5.94% | |
| Independent | Al Gross[a] | 146,068 | 41.19% | −4.64% | |
| Independence | John Howe | 16,806 | 4.74% | N/A | |
| Write-in | 601 | 0.17% | −0.32% | ||
| Total votes | 354,587 | 100.0% | |||
| Republican hold | |||||
By state house district
| District[75] | Dan Sullivan Republican |
Al Gross Independent |
John Howe Independence |
Write-in | Margin | Total votes |
Representative | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| # | % | # | % | # | % | # | % | # | % | |||
| District 1 | 3,487 | 48.36 | 3,293 | 45.67 | 414 | 5.74 | 16 | 0.22 | 194 | 2.69 | 7,210 | Bart LeBon |
| District 2 | 3,379' | 59.75 | 1,895 | 33.51 | 372 | 6.58 | 9 | 0.16 | 1,484 | 26.24 | 5,655 | Steve M. Thompson |
| District 3 | 6,004 | 72.32 | 1,810 | 21.80 | 480 | 5.78 | 8 | 0.10 | 4,194 | 50.52 | 8,302 | Mike Prax |
| District 4 | 4,817 | 45.69 | 5,301 | 50.28 | 407 | 3.86 | 17 | 0.16 | -484 | -4.59 | 10,542 | Grier Hopkins |
| District 5 | 4,188 | 48.49 | 4,104 | 47.52 | 332 | 3.84 | 13 | 0.15 | 84 | 0.97 | 8,637 | Adam Wool |
| District 6 | 5,601 | 60.87 | 3,068 | 33.34 | 518 | 5.63 | 15 | 0.16 | 2,533 | 16.66 | 9,202 | Mike Cronk |
| District 7 | 6,752 | 70.90 | 2,185 | 22.94 | 563 | 5.91 | 23 | 0.24 | 4,567 | 47.96 | 9,523 | Christopher Kurka |
| District 8 | 7,253 | 73.86 | 1,980 | 20.16 | 574 | 5.84 | 13 | 0.13 | 5,273 | 53.70 | 9,820 | Kevin J. McCabe |
| District 9 | 7,582 | 69.53 | 2,786 | 25.55 | 519 | 4.76 | 17 | 0.16 | 4,796 | 43.98 | 10,904 | George Rauscher |
| District 10 | 7,735 | 69.72 | 2,742 | 24.71 | 598 | 5.39 | 20 | 0.18 | 4,993 | 45.00 | 11,095 | David Eastman |
| District 11 | 7,051 | 66.63 | 3,047 | 28.79 | 476 | 4.50 | 8 | 0.08 | 4,004 | 37.84 | 10,582 | DeLena Johnson |
| District 12 | 7,877 | 70.73 | 2,824 | 25.36 | 425 | 3.82 | 11 | 0.10 | 5,053 | 45.37 | 11,137 | Cathy Tilton |
| District 13 | 4,684 | 62.75 | 2,400 | 32.15 | 372 | 4.98 | 8 | 0.11 | 2,284 | 30.60 | 7,464 | Ken McCarty |
| District 14 | 7,114 | 62.23 | 3,894 | 34.06 | 415 | 3.63 | 9 | 0.08 | 3,220 | 28.17 | 11,432 | Kelly Merrick |
| District 15 | 2,613 | 48.61 | 2,449 | 45.56 | 308 | 5.73 | 5 | 0.09 | 164 | 3.05 | 5,375 | David Nelson |
| District 16 | 3,545 | 43.87 | 4,110 | 50.87 | 410 | 5.07 | 15 | 0.19 | -565 | -6.99 | 8,080 | Ivy Spohnholz |
| District 17 | 2,903 | 40.42 | 3,951 | 55.01 | 315 | 4.39 | 13 | 0.18 | -1,048 | -14.59 | 7,182 | Andy Josephson |
| District 18 | 2,807 | 36.63 | 4,553 | 59.41 | 289 | 3.77 | 14 | 0.18 | -1,746 | -22.78 | 7,663 | Harriet Drummond |
| District 19 | 1,876 | 35.73 | 3,046 | 58.01 | 310 | 5.90 | 19 | 0.36 | -1,170 | -22.28 | 5,251 | Geran Tarr |
| District 20 | 2,526 | 33.95 | 4,657 | 62.59 | 243 | 3.27 | 14 | 0.19 | -2,131 | -28.64 | 7,440 | Zack Fields |
| District 21 | 3,980 | 42.21 | 5,141 | 54.52 | 296 | 3.14 | 12 | 0.13 | -1,161 | -12.31 | 9,429 | Matt Claman |
| District 22 | 4,977 | 52.16 | 4,202 | 44.04 | 336 | 3.52 | 26 | 0.27 | 775 | 7.91 | 9,541 | Sara Rasmussen |
| District 23 | 3,734 | 48.38 | 3,638 | 47.14 | 335 | 4.34 | 11 | 0.14 | 96 | 1.24 | 7,718 | Chris Tuck |
| District 24 | 5,835 | 55.87 | 4,363 | 41.78 | 238 | 2.28 | 7 | 0.07 | 1,472 | 14.10 | 10,443 | Thomas McKay |
| District 25 | 4,556 | 49.07 | 4,367 | 47.03 | 350 | 3.77 | 12 | 0.13 | 189 | 2.04 | 9,285 | Calvin Schrage |
| District 26 | 5,651 | 55.95 | 4,172 | 41.31 | 267 | 2.64 | 10 | 0.10 | 1,479 | 14.64 | 10,100 | Laddie Shaw |
| District 27 | 4,534 | 47.76 | 4,608 | 48.54 | 342 | 3.60 | 9 | 0.09 | -74 | -0.78 | 9,493 | Liz Snyder |
| District 28 | 6,753 | 52.83 | 5,776 | 45.18 | 244 | 1.91 | 10 | 0.08 | 977 | 7.64 | 12,783 | James D. Kaufman |
| District 29 | 7,237 | 67.86 | 2,923 | 27.41 | 497 | 4.66 | 7 | 0.07 | 4,314 | 40.45 | 10,664 | Ben Carpenter |
| District 30 | 7,034 | 70.06 | 2,502 | 24.92 | 485 | 4.83 | 19 | 0.19 | 4,532 | 45.14 | 10,040 | Ron Gillham |
| District 31 | 6,763 | 54.84 | 5,049 | 40.94 | 498 | 4.04 | 23 | 0.19 | 1,714 | 13.90 | 12,333 | Sarah Vance |
| District 32 | 4,309 | 52.49 | 3,449 | 42.01 | 438 | 5.34 | 13 | 0.16 | 860 | 10.48 | 8,209 | Louise Stutes |
| District 33 | 3,074 | 28.20 | 7,463 | 68.47 | 341 | 3.13 | 21 | 0.19 | -4,389 | -40.27 | 10,899 | Sara Hannan |
| District 34 | 4,667 | 43.57 | 5,608 | 52.35 | 427 | 3.99 | 10 | 0.09 | -941 | -8.78 | 10,712 | Andi Story |
| District 35 | 4,388 | 43.84 | 5,004 | 49.99 | 598 | 5.97 | 20 | 0.20 | -616 | -6.15 | 10,010 | Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins |
| District 36 | 5,005 | 54.42 | 3,679 | 40.00 | 495 | 5.38 | 18 | 0.20 | 1,326 | 14.42 | 9,197 | Dan Ortiz |
| District 37 | 2,393 | 47.17 | 2,303 | 45.40 | 366 | 7.21 | 11 | 0.22 | 90 | 1.77 | 5,073 | Bryce Edgmon |
| District 38 | 1,698 | 32.07 | 2,972 | 56.13 | 610 | 11.52 | 15 | 0.28 | -1,274 | -24.06 | 5,295 | Tiffany Zulkosky |
| District 39 | 2,403 | 41.03 | 2,701 | 46.12 | 699 | 11.93 | 54 | 0.92 | -298 | -5.09 | 5,857 | Neal Foster |
| District 40 | 2,275 | 49.56 | 1,706 | 37.17 | 594 | 12.94 | 15 | 0.33 | 569 | 12.40 | 4,590 | Josiah Patkotak |
| Totals | 191,112 | 53.90 | 146,068 | 41.19 | 16,806 | 4.74 | 601 | 0.17 | 45,044 | 12.70 | 354,587 | |
Boroughs and census areas that flipped from Democratic to Republican
- Aleutians East Borough (largest city: Akutan)
- Aleutians West Census Area (largest city: Unalaska)
- Anchorage
- Denali Borough (largest city: Healy)
- Nome Census Area (largest city: Nome)
- North Slope Borough (largest city: Utqiaġvik)
- Northwest Arctic Borough (largest city: Kotzebue)
- Prince of Wales–Hyder Census Area (largest city: Craig)
Notes
- Payment of filing fee was not made prior to the deadline.
- Key:
A – all adults
RV – registered voters
LV – likely voters
V – unclear - Would not vote with 1%; "Someone else" with 0%
- Includes "Refused"
- "Someone else" with 2%
Partisan clients
- Poll sponsored by Protect Our Care, a pro-Affordable Care Act organization.
- Poll conducted for Gross' campaign.
- Poll sponsored by The Independent Alaska PAC, which has supported Al Gross's campaign for the US Senate race in Alaska prior to this poll's sampling period.
- Polling's funding was crowdsourced by Election Twitter.