2014 United States Senate election in North Carolina
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The 2014 United States Senate election in North Carolina took place on November 4, 2014, to elect a member of the United States Senate to represent the state of North Carolina, concurrently with other elections to the United States Senate in other states and elections to the United States House of Representatives and various state and local elections. The primary took place on May 6, 2014.
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November 4, 2014
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| Turnout | 2,915,281 | ||||||||||||||||
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Tillis: 40–50% 50–60% 60–70% 70–80% 80–90% Hagan: 40–50% 50–60% 60–70% 70–80% 80–90% >90% Tie: No votes | |||||||||||||||||
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This was one of the seven Democratic-held Senate seats up for election in a state that Mitt Romney won in the 2012 presidential election.
Incumbent Democratic senator Kay Hagan ran for re-election to a second term in office, but was defeated by Republican Thom Tillis, Speaker of the North Carolina House of Representatives by about 45,000 votes and a margin of 1.6%.[1] This made the election the second-closest race of the 2014 Senate election cycle, behind only the election in Virginia. This is the last time a Senator from North Carolina lost re-election.
Democratic primary
Candidates
Declared
Withdrew
- Fred Westphal, retired University of Miami professor and political activist[7][8]
Results
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Democratic | Kay Hagan (incumbent) | 372,209 | 77.16% | |
| Democratic | Will Stewart | 66,903 | 13.87% | |
| Democratic | Ernest T. Reeves | 43,257 | 8.97% | |
| Total votes | 482,369 | 100.00% | ||
Republican primary
Candidates
The eight Republican candidates on the 2014 U.S. Senate primary ballot were the most in party history in North Carolina, more than the seven on the ballot in the 2002 Republican primary won by Elizabeth Dole.[10]
Declared
- Ted Alexander, former mayor of Shelby[11]
- Alex Bradshaw[4]
- Greg Brannon, physician and Tea Party activist[12]
- Heather Grant, nurse practitioner[13]
- Mark Harris, pastor of First Baptist Church of Charlotte and president of the Baptist State Convention of North Carolina[14]
- Edward Kryn, retired physician[15]
- James Snyder Jr., former state representative, candidate for U.S. Senate in 2002 and nominee for lieutenant governor in 2004[16]
- Thom Tillis, Speaker of the North Carolina House of Representatives[3][17]
Withdrew
Declined
- Phil Berger, President pro tempore of the North Carolina Senate[3][18][22]
- Cherie K. Berry, North Carolina Commissioner of Labor[23]
- Peter S. Brunstetter, state senator[24][25]
- James P. Cain, attorney and former United States Ambassador to Denmark[3][26]
- Renee Ellmers, U.S. representative[27]
- Dan Forest, Lieutenant Governor of North Carolina[28]
- Virginia Foxx, U.S. representative[29]
- George Holding, U.S. representative[18]
- Patrick McHenry, U.S. representative[30]
- Sue Myrick, former U.S. representative and former Mayor of Charlotte[3]
- Robert Pittenger, U.S. representative[18]
- Kieran Shanahan, attorney[3]
- Lynn Wheeler, former member of the Charlotte City Council and former mayor pro tempore of Charlotte[31]
Endorsements
Greg Brannon
Politicians
- Terry Embler, police detective and withdrawn candidate for the U.S. Senate[32]
- Mike Lee, U.S. senator (R-UT)[33]
- Thomas Massie, U.S. representative (R-KY)[34]
- Rand Paul, U.S. senator (R-KY)[35]
- Ron Paul, former U.S. representative (R-TX)[36]
Political figures
- Ann Coulter, author and conservative political commentator[37]
- Erick Erickson, conservative pundit and editor-in-chief of RedState[38]
- Mark Levin, author and conservative radio host[39]
Organizations
Mark Harris
- Peter S. Brunstetter, former state senator[43]
- Warren T. Daniel, state senator[44]
- Robin Hayes, former U.S. representative and former chairman of the North Carolina Republican Party[45]
- Mike Huckabee, former governor of Arkansas[46]
- Buck Newton, state senator[44]
- Dan Soucek, state senator[44]
Jim Snyder
Thom Tillis
Organizations
Politicians
- Jeb Bush, former governor of Florida[49]
- Pat McCrory, Governor of North Carolina[50]
- Mitt Romney, former governor of Massachusetts and 2012 presidential nominee [51]
State legislators
- Harry Brown, state senator[52]
- David Curtis, state senator[52]
- Jim Davis, state senator[52]
- Thom Goolsby, state senator[52]
- Rick Gunn, state senator[52]
- Fletcher L. Hartsell, Jr., state senator[52]
- Brent Jackson, state senator[52]
- Wesley Meredith, state senator[52]
- Bill Rabon, state senator[52]
- Ron Rabin, state senator[52]
- Bob Rucho, state senator[52]
- Jeff Tarte, state senator[52]
- Tommy Tucker, state senator[52]
- Trudy Wade, state senator[52]
- Dean Arp, state representative[52]
- Marilyn Avila, state representative[52]
- John Bell, state representative[52]
- Jamie Boles, state representative[52]
- Bill Brawley, state representative[52]
- Brian Brown, state representative[52]
- Rayne Brown, state representative[52]
- Rob Bryan, state representative[52]
- Dana Bumgardner, state representative[52]
- Justin Burr, state representative[52]
- Rick Catlin, state representative[52]
- Jeff Collins, state representative[52]
- N. Leo Daughtry, state representative[52]
- Ted Davis, state representative[52]
- Jimmy Dixon, state representative[52]
- Josh Dobson, state representative[52]
- Nelson Dollar, state representative[52]
- John Faircloth, state representative[52]
- Jim Fulghum, state representative[52]
- Mike Hager, state representative[52]
- Jon Hardister, state representative[52]
- Mark Hollo, state representative[52]
- Craig Horn, state representative[52]
- Julia C. Howard, state representative[52]
- Pat Hurley, state representative[52]
- Frank Iler, state representative[52]
- Charlie Jeter, state representative[52]
- Linda P. Johnson, state representative[52]
- Donny Lambeth, state representative[52]
- J. H. Langdon, state representative[52]
- Chris Malone, state representative[52]
- Susan Martin, state representative[52]
- Pat McElraft, state representative[52]
- Chuck McGrady, state representative[52]
- Allen McNeill, state representative[52]
- Tim Moffitt, state representative[52]
- Tim Moore, state representative[52]
- Tom Murry, state representative[52]
- Michele Presnell, state representative[52]
- Nathan Ramsey, state representative[52]
- Steve Ross, state representative[52]
- Jason Saine, state representative[52]
- Ruth Samuelson, state representative[52]
- Jacqueline Schaffer, state representative[52]
- Mitchell S. Setzer, state representative[52]
- Phil Shepard, state representative[52]
- Paul Stam, state representative[52]
- Sarah Stevens, state representative[52]
- Mike C. Stone, state representative[52]
- John Szoka, state representative[52]
- John Torbett, state representative[52]
- Rena Turner, state representative[52]
- Roger West, state representative[52]
- Roger Younts, state representative[52]
Polling
Primary
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Ted Alexander |
Alex Bradshaw |
Greg Brannon |
Heather Grant |
Mark Harris |
Edward Kryn |
Jim Snyder |
Thom Tillis |
Other/ Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Public Policy Polling[53] | February 6–9, 2014 | 305 | ± 5.6% | 10% | — | 13% | 13% | 8% | 2% | — | 20% | 34% |
| American Insights[54] | February 11–15, 2014 | 168 | ± 7.6% | — | — | 4% | 4% | 7% | — | — | 11% | 74% |
| Public Policy Polling[53] | March 6–9, 2014 | 392 | ± 5% | 7% | 6% | 14% | 11% | 7% | 1% | 4% | 14% | 36% |
| SurveyUSA[55] | March 17–19, 2014 | 405 | ± 5% | 7% | 4% | 15% | 11% | 6% | 3% | 4% | 28% | 23% |
| SurveyUSA[56] | March 19–23, 2014 | 405 | ± 5% | 1% | 2% | 13% | 5% | 9% | 0% | 5% | 27% | 38% |
| SurveyUSA[57] | March 27–31, 2014 | 433 | ± 4.8% | 6% | 1% | 15% | 6% | 11% | 2% | 3% | 23% | 34% |
| Public Policy Polling[58] | April 3–6, 2014 | 314 | ± 5.5% | 6% | 5% | 15% | 7% | 11% | 1% | 2% | 18% | 34% |
| SurveyUSA[59] | April 16–22, 2014 | 392 | ± 5% | 1% | 1% | 20% | 2% | 15% | 2% | 2% | 39% | 19% |
| Public Policy Polling[58] | April 26–28, 2014 | 694 | ± 3.7% | 2% | 1% | 20% | 5% | 11% | 2% | 3% | 46% | 12% |
| Public Policy Polling[60] | May 3–4, 2014 | 925 | ± 3.2% | 2% | 0% | 28% | 4% | 15% | 1% | 1% | 40% | 11% |
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Phil Berger |
Greg Brannon |
Jim Cain |
Renee Ellmers |
Bill Flynn |
Virginia Foxx |
Heather Grant |
Mark Harris |
Thom Tillis |
Lynn Wheeler |
Other/ Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Public Policy Polling[61] | June 12–14, 2013 | 374 | ± 5.1% | 11% | 7% | 8% | 9% | — | 23% | — | 4% | 9% | 3% | 27% |
| Public Policy Polling[62] | July 12–14, 2013 | 373 | ± 5.1% | 11% | 7% | 11% | 11% | — | 16% | — | 1% | 5% | 3% | 35% |
| 22% | — | — | 18% | — | — | — | — | 21% | — | 39% | ||||
| — | — | — | 25% | — | — | — | — | 32% | — | 43% | ||||
| Public Policy Polling[63] | August 8–11, 2013 | 344 | ± 5.3% | 9% | 7% | 9% | — | — | 18% | 4% | 4% | 8% | 2% | 40% |
| 22% | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | 23% | — | 56% | ||||
| Public Policy Polling[64] | September 6–9, 2013 | 311 | ± 5.6% | 13% | 6% | 11% | — | — | — | 8% | 5% | 12% | 2% | 43% |
| Public Policy Polling[65] | November 8–11, 2013 | 498 | ± 4.4% | — | 11% | — | — | — | — | 8% | 14% | 20% | — | 47% |
| Public Policy Polling[66] | December 5–8, 2013 | 529 | ± 4.3% | — | 11% | — | — | 8% | — | 11% | 12% | 13% | — | 44% |
| Public Policy Polling[67] | January 9–12, 2014 | 575 | ± 4.1% | — | 11% | — | — | 7% | — | 11% | 8% | 19% | — | 44% |
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Phil Berger |
Cherie Berry |
Greg Brannon |
Renee Ellmers |
Terry Embler |
Dan Forest |
Virginia Foxx |
George Holding |
Patrick McHenry |
Thom Tillis |
Other/ Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Public Policy Polling[68] | February 7–10, 2013 | 518 | ± 4.3% | 7% | 18% | 5% | 10% | 1% | — | 18% | 3% | 10% | 3% | 27% |
| Public Policy Polling[69] | March 7–10, 2013 | 530 | ± 4.3% | 8% | 12% | 4% | 10% | 1% | 18% | 13% | — | 7% | 2% | 24% |
| Public Policy Polling[70] | April 11–14, 2013 | 468 | ± 4.5% | 11% | 18% | 6% | 12% | 1% | — | 13% | — | — | 7% | 32% |
| Public Policy Polling[71] | May 17–20, 2013 | 366 | ± 5.1% | 10% | 14% | 7% | 10% | — | — | 15% | — | — | 6% | 38% |
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Phil Berger |
Renee Ellmers |
Virginia Foxx |
George Holding |
Richard Hudson |
Patrick McHenry |
Mark Meadows |
Sue Myrick |
Robert Pittenger |
Thom Tillis |
Other/ Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Public Policy Polling[72] | December 6–9, 2012 | 462 | ± 4.6% | — | 11% | 17% | 9% | 6% | 13% | 4% | 14% | — | 2% | 25% |
| Public Policy Polling[73] | January 10–13, 2013 | 449 | ± 4.6% | 5% | 11% | 21% | 2% | 5% | 15% | — | — | 6% | 2% | 33% |
Runoff
Hypothetical runoff polling
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Greg Brannon |
Thom Tillis |
Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Public Policy Polling[58] | April 26–28, 2014 | 694 | ± 3.7% | 32% | 50% | 18% |
| Public Policy Polling[60] | May 3–4, 2014 | 925 | ± 3.2% | 40% | 46% | 14% |
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Mark Harris |
Thom Tillis |
Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Public Policy Polling[58] | April 26–28, 2014 | 694 | ± 3.7% | 27% | 53% | 20% |
| Public Policy Polling[60] | May 3–4, 2014 | 925 | ± 3.2% | 34% | 49% | 16% |
Results
Tillis
- 30–40%
- 40–50%
- 50–60%
- 60–70%
Brannon
- 30–40%
- 40–50%
Harris
- 30–40%
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Republican | Thom Tillis | 223,174 | 45.68% | |
| Republican | Greg Brannon | 132,630 | 27.15% | |
| Republican | Mark Harris | 85,727 | 17.55% | |
| Republican | Heather Grant | 22,971 | 4.70% | |
| Republican | Jim Snyder | 9,414 | 1.93% | |
| Republican | Ted Alexander | 9,258 | 1.89% | |
| Republican | Alex Lee Bradshaw | 3,528 | 0.72% | |
| Republican | Edward Kryn | 1,853 | 0.38% | |
| Total votes | 488,555 | 100.00% | ||
Libertarian primary
Candidates
Declared
Results
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Libertarian | Sean Haugh | 1,226 | 60.69% | |
| Libertarian | Tim D'Annunzio | 794 | 39.31% | |
| Total votes | 2,020 | 100.00% | ||
Other parties
Certified write-in candidates
- Barry Gurney, small business owner[76]
- John W. Rhodes, former Republican state representative[76]
- David Waddell, Constitution Party member and former Indian Trail town councilman[76][77]
General election
Candidates
- Kay Hagan (D), incumbent U.S. senator
- Sean Haugh (L), pizza delivery man and nominee for the U.S. Senate in 2002
- Thom Tillis (R), Speaker of the North Carolina House of Representatives
Outside spending
In July 2014, Jim Morrill of The Charlotte Observer calculated that as of the end of June, more than $26 million had been spent by outside advocacy groups on the election, with $17 million of it attacking Hagan or supporting Tillis and less than $9 million supporting Hagan or attacking Tillis. By contrast, outside groups spent $25 million during the entire 2008 election. He reported that only $11.4 million had been reported to the FEC, with the rest of the "dark money" coming from groups that did not have to disclose their donors. 27% of the money spent supporting Tillis came from groups required to disclose their donors whereas 69% of the money supporting Hagan did so.[78]
OpenSecrets placed the final cost of outside spending at $8.5 million for Hagan and $35.5 million attacking Tillis, and $13.7 million for Tillis and $20.9 million attacking Hagan, placing the totals by candidate at $44 million for Hagan, and $34.6 million for Tillis.[79]
Debates
Three televised debates between the candidates were held: the first on September 3 moderated by Norah O'Donnell of CBS, the second on October 7 moderated by George Stephanopoulos of ABC, and the third (the only one to feature Sean Haugh) on October 9 moderated by Jon Evans of WECT-TV.[80]
Video of the first debate is available here, with the second here and the third here.
Predictions
| Source | Ranking | As of |
|---|---|---|
| The Cook Political Report[81] | Tossup | November 3, 2014 |
| Sabato's Crystal Ball[82] | Lean D | November 3, 2014 |
| Rothenberg Political Report[83] | Tossup | November 3, 2014 |
| Real Clear Politics[84] | Tossup | November 3, 2014 |
Polling
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Kay Hagan (D) |
Thom Tillis (R) |
Sean Haugh (L) |
Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Public Policy Polling[72] | December 6–9, 2012 | 578 | ± 4.1% | 48% | 38% | — | — | 14% |
| Public Policy Polling[73] | January 10–13, 2013 | 608 | ± 4% | 47% | 37% | — | — | 16% |
| Public Policy Polling[68] | February 7–10, 2013 | 600 | ± 4% | 46% | 38% | — | — | 16% |
| Public Policy Polling[69] | March 7–10, 2013 | 611 | ± 4% | 50% | 36% | — | — | 14% |
| Public Policy Polling[70] | April 11–14, 2013 | 601 | ± 4% | 49% | 39% | — | — | 11% |
| Public Policy Polling[71] | May 17–20, 2013 | 500 | ± 4.4% | 48% | 41% | — | — | 11% |
| Public Policy Polling[61] | June 12–14, 2013 | 500 | ± 4.4% | 45% | 40% | — | — | 15% |
| Public Policy Polling[62] | July 12–14, 2013 | 600 | ± 4% | 49% | 38% | — | — | 12% |
| Public Policy Polling[63] | August 8–11, 2013 | 600 | ± 4% | 47% | 39% | — | — | 14% |
| Public Policy Polling[64] | September 6–9, 2013 | 600 | ± 4% | 51% | 36% | — | — | 14% |
| Public Policy Polling[85] | October 4–6, 2013 | 746 | ± ?% | 47% | 40% | — | — | 13% |
| Public Policy Polling[65] | November 8–11, 2013 | 701 | ± 4% | 44% | 42% | — | — | 14% |
| Public Policy Polling[66] | December 5–8, 2013 | 1,281 | ± 2.7% | 44% | 42% | — | — | 14% |
| Public Policy Polling[67] | January 9–12, 2014 | 1,384 | ± 2.6% | 42% | 43% | — | — | 15% |
| Harper Polling[86] | January 20–21, 2014 | 778 | ± 3.51% | 44% | 44% | — | — | 12% |
| Rasmussen Reports[87] | January 22–23, 2014 | 500 | ± 4.5% | 40% | 47% | — | 3% | 10% |
| Public Policy Polling[53] | February 6–9, 2014 | 708 | ± 3.7% | 40% | 42% | — | — | 17% |
| American Insights[54] | February 11–15, 2014 | 611 | ± 4% | 38% | 35% | — | — | 26% |
| Hickman Analytics[88] | February 17–20, 2014 | 400 | ± 4.9% | 45% | 41% | — | — | 13% |
| Public Policy Polling[89] | March 6–9, 2014 | 884 | ± 3.3% | 45% | 43% | — | — | 13% |
| SurveyUSA[57] | March 27–31, 2014 | 1,489 | ± 2.6% | 45% | 46% | — | — | 9% |
| Public Policy Polling[58] | April 3–6, 2014 | 740 | ± 3.6% | 43% | 41% | — | — | 16% |
| New York Times/Kaiser Family[90] | April 8–15, 2014 | 900 | ± ? | 42% | 40% | — | 5% | 14% |
| Magellan Strategies[91] | April 14–15, 2014 | 804 | ± 3.46% | 43% | 43% | — | 8% | 6% |
| Rasmussen Reports[92] | May 7–8, 2014 | 750 | ± 4% | 44% | 45% | — | 5% | 7% |
| Public Policy Polling[93] | May 9–11, 2014 | 877 | ± 3.3% | 38% | 36% | 11% | — | 15% |
| 41% | 41% | — | — | 18% | ||||
| Civitas Institute[94] | May 20–22, 2014 | 600 | ± 4% | 36% | 39% | 8% | — | 15% |
| 41% | 46% | — | — | 12% | ||||
| Magellan Strategies[95] | June 5–8, 2014 | 700 | ± 3.7% | 47% | 46% | — | — | 7% |
| Public Policy Polling[96] | June 12–15, 2014 | 1,076 | ± 3% | 39% | 34% | 11% | — | 16% |
| 42% | 38% | — | — | 20% | ||||
| Civitas Institute[97] | June 18–19 & 22, 2014 | 600 | ± 4% | 42% | 36% | 9% | — | 12% |
| 47% | 43% | — | — | 9% | ||||
| Public Policy Polling[98] | July 17–20, 2014 | 1,062 | ± 3% | 41% | 34% | 8% | — | 16% |
| 42% | 39% | — | — | 19% | ||||
| CBS News/NYT/YouGov[99] | July 5–24, 2014 | 2,678 | ± 3.5% | 44% | 45% | — | 2% | 7% |
| Gravis Marketing[100] | July 22–27, 2014 | 1,380 | ± 3% | 44% | 41% | — | — | 15% |
| Civitas Institute[101] | July 28–29, 2014 | 600 | ± 4% | 41% | 39% | 7% | — | 12% |
| 43% | 45% | — | — | 10% | ||||
| Rasmussen Reports[102] | August 5–6, 2014 | 750 | ± 4% | 40% | 45% | — | 6% | 9% |
| Public Policy Polling[103] | August 14–17, 2014 | 856 | ± 3.4% | 42% | 38% | 8% | — | 13% |
| 43% | 42% | — | — | 14% | ||||
| Suffolk University[104] | August 16–19, 2014 | 500 | ± 4.4% | 45.4% | 43% | 5.2% | — | 6.4% |
| CBS News/NYT/YouGov[105] | August 18 – September 2, 2014 | 2,059 | ± 3% | 42% | 43% | 5% | 0% | 10% |
| Garin-Hart-Yang[106] | September 3–6, 2014 | 802 | ± 3.5% | 48% | 45% | — | — | 7% |
| Elon University[107] | September 5–9, 2014 | 629 LV | ± 3.91% | 44.9% | 40.8% | — | 9.1% | 5.2% |
| 983 RV | ± 3.13% | 42.7% | 36.8% | — | 10.7% | 9.8% | ||
| American Insights[108] | September 5–10, 2014 | 459 | ± 4.6% | 46% | 36% | 6% | — | 13% |
| Rasmussen Reports[109] | September 8–10, 2014 | 1,000 | ± 4% | 45% | 39% | — | 6% | 9% |
| Civitas Institute[110] | September 9–10, 2014 | 490 | ± 4.5% | 46% | 43% | 5% | — | 6% |
| 47% | 46% | — | — | 7% | ||||
| Public Policy Polling[111] | September 11–14, 2014 | 1,266 | ± 2.8% | 44% | 40% | 5% | — | 11% |
| 46% | 42% | — | — | 12% | ||||
| Fox News[112] | September 14–16, 2014 | 605 | ± 4% | 41% | 36% | 6% | — | 13% |
| High Point University[113] | September 13–18, 2014 | 410 | ± 5% | 42% | 40% | 6% | — | 12% |
| Global Strategy Group[114] | September 16–18, 2014 | 600 | ± 4.9% | 45% | 41% | 5% | — | 9% |
| Gravis Marketing[115] | September 22–23, 2014 | 860 | ± 3% | 46% | 42% | — | — | 12% |
| CNN/ORC[116] | September 22–25, 2014 | 595 LV | ± 4% | 46% | 43% | 7% | — | 4% |
| 860 | ± 3.5% | 46% | 39% | 9% | — | 6% | ||
| Civitas[117] | September 25, 27–28, 2014 | 600 | ± 4% | 46% | 41% | 4% | 1% | 8% |
| 860 | ± 3.5% | 50% | 43% | — | — | 8% | ||
| CBS News/NYT/YouGov[118] | September 20 – October 1, 2014 | 2,002 | ± 3% | 46% | 45% | 2% | 1% | 6% |
| Greenberg Quinlan Rosner[119] | September 25 – October 1, 2014 | 1,000 | ± 2.09% | 45% | 41% | — | 14% | |
| NBC News/Marist[120] | September 27 – October 1, 2014 | 665 LV | ± 3.8% | 44% | 40% | 7% | <1% | 9% |
| 1,132 RV | ± 2.9% | 42% | 37% | 8% | 1% | 12% | ||
| Morey Group[121] | October 1–6, 2014 | 956 | ± 3.2% | 40.1% | 37.8% | — | 2% | 20.2% |
| Suffolk University[122] | October 4–7, 2014 | 500 | ± 4.4% | 46.8% | 45.4% | 4.4% | — | 3.4% |
| Rasmussen Reports[123] | October 6–7, 2014 | 970 | ± 3% | 48% | 46% | — | 2% | 4% |
| High Point University[124] | September 30 – October 2 and October 4–9, 2014 | 584 | ± 4.1% | 39.5% | 40.4% | 7% | — | 13% |
| SurveyUSA[125] | October 10–12, 2014 | 554 | ± 4.2% | 44% | 41% | 7% | — | 8% |
| 45% | 46% | — | — | 9% | ||||
| Civitas Institute[126] | October 15–18, 2014 | 600 | ± 4% | 41% | 42% | 6% | — | 11% |
| 44% | 44% | — | — | 12% | ||||
| Gravis Marketing[127] | October 16–18, 2014 | 1,022 | ± 3% | 43% | 48% | — | — | 9% |
| Public Policy Polling[128] | October 16–18, 2014 | 780 | ± 3.5% | 46% | 43% | 5% | — | 7% |
| 47% | 44% | — | — | 8% | ||||
| SurveyUSA[129] | October 16–20, 2014 | 568 | ± 4.2% | 46% | 43% | 6% | — | 5% |
| CBS News/NYT/YouGov[118] | October 16–23, 2014 | 1,910 | ± 4% | 44% | 41% | 2% | 0% | 13% |
| NBC News/Marist[130] | October 19–23, 2014 | 756 LV | ± 3.6% | 43% | 43% | 7% | <1% | 6% |
| 1,070 RV | ± 3% | 42% | 40% | 8% | 1% | 9% | ||
| SurveyUSA[131] | October 21–25, 2014 | 802 | ± 4% | 44% | 44% | 5% | 3% | 5% |
| Elon University[132] | October 21–25, 2014 | 687 LV | ± 3.74% | 44.7% | 40.7% | — | 6.3% | 6.6% |
| 996 RV | ± 3.11% | 44.8% | 37.5% | — | 7.7% | 8.5% | ||
| Monmouth University[133] | October 23–26, 2014 | 432 | ± 4.7% | 48% | 46% | 1% | — | 4% |
| Vox Populi[134] | October 26–27, 2014 | 615 | ± 3.95% | 43% | 48% | — | — | 9% |
| Public Policy Polling[135] | October 28–29, 2014 | 657 | ± ? | 47% | 46% | 4% | — | 3% |
| Rasmussen Reports[123] | October 28–29, 2014 | 982 | ± 3% | 47% | 46% | — | 3% | 3% |
| CNN/ORC[136] | October 27–30, 2014 | 559 LV | ± 4% | 48% | 46% | 4% | — | 2% |
| 896 RV | ± 3.5% | 47% | 41% | 8% | — | 4% | ||
| Fox News[137] | October 28–30, 2014 | 909 | ± 3% | 43% | 42% | 4% | 1% | 9% |
| Harper Polling[138] | October 28–30, 2014 | 511 | ± 4.34% | 44% | 46% | 6% | — | 4% |
| 45% | 48% | — | — | 7% | ||||
| Civitas Institute[139] | October 29–30, 2014 | 600 | ± 4% | 41% | 41% | 6% | — | 10% |
| 45% | 44% | — | — | 11% | ||||
| Gravis Marketing[140] | October 29–30, 2014 | 1,006 | ± 3% | 46% | 47% | — | — | 8% |
| YouGov[141] | October 25–31, 2014 | 1,727 | ± 3% | 44% | 41% | — | 3% | 12% |
| Public Policy Polling[142] | October 30–31, 2014 | 738 | ± ? | 46% | 45% | 4% | — | 5% |
| Public Policy Polling[143] | November 1–3, 2014 | 1,333 | ± 2.7% | 46% | 44% | 5% | — | 6% |
| 48% | 46% | — | — | 6% | ||||
Hypothetical polling
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Kay Hagan (D) |
Ted Alexander (R) |
Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Public Policy Polling[53] | February 6–9, 2014 | 708 | ± 3.7% | 38% | 45% | 17% |
| Public Policy Polling[89] | March 6–9, 2014 | 884 | ± 3.3% | 43% | 45% | 12% |
| SurveyUSA[57] | March 27–31, 2014 | 1,489 | ± 2.6% | 44% | 46% | 10% |
| Public Policy Polling[58] | April 3–6, 2014 | 740 | ± 3.6% | 42% | 43% | 15% |
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Kay Hagan (D) |
Phil Berger (R) |
Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Public Policy Polling[73] | January 10–13, 2013 | 608 | ± 4% | 47% | 38% | 15% |
| Public Policy Polling[68] | February 7–10, 2013 | 600 | ± 4% | 49% | 38% | 13% |
| Public Policy Polling[69] | March 7–10, 2013 | 611 | ± 4% | 51% | 37% | 12% |
| Public Policy Polling[70] | April 11–14, 2013 | 601 | ± 4% | 48% | 39% | 13% |
| Public Policy Polling[71] | May 17–20, 2013 | 500 | ± 4.4% | 46% | 42% | 12% |
| Public Policy Polling[61] | June 12–14, 2013 | 500 | ± 4.4% | 44% | 40% | 17% |
| Public Policy Polling[62] | July 12–14, 2013 | 600 | ± 4% | 49% | 39% | 12% |
| Public Policy Polling[63] | August 8–11, 2013 | 600 | ± 4% | 47% | 39% | 14% |
| Public Policy Polling[64] | September 6–9, 2013 | 600 | ± 4% | 53% | 36% | 11% |
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Kay Hagan (D) |
Cherie K. Berry (R) |
Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Public Policy Polling[68] | February 7–10, 2013 | 600 | ± 4% | 46% | 38% | 16% |
| Public Policy Polling[69] | March 7–10, 2013 | 611 | ± 4% | 50% | 38% | 12% |
| Public Policy Polling[70] | April 11–14, 2013 | 601 | ± 4% | 46% | 41% | 13% |
| Public Policy Polling[71] | May 17–20, 2013 | 500 | ± 4.4% | 45% | 45% | 9% |
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Kay Hagan (D) |
Alex Bradshaw (R) |
Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Public Policy Polling[89] | March 6–9, 2014 | 884 | ± 3.3% | 43% | 43% | 14% |
| Public Policy Polling[58] | April 3–6, 2014 | 740 | ± 3.6% | 41% | 42% | 17% |
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Kay Hagan (D) |
Greg Brannon (R) |
Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Public Policy Polling[68] | February 7–10, 2013 | 600 | ± 4% | 48% | 35% | — | 17% |
| Public Policy Polling[69] | March 7–10, 2013 | 611 | ± 4% | 51% | 36% | — | 13% |
| Public Policy Polling[70] | April 11–14, 2013 | 601 | ± 4% | 49% | 36% | — | 15% |
| Public Policy Polling[71] | May 17–20, 2013 | 500 | ± 4.4% | 49% | 40% | — | 11% |
| Public Policy Polling[61] | June 12–14, 2013 | 500 | ± 4.4% | 44% | 40% | — | 15% |
| Public Policy Polling[62] | July 12–14, 2013 | 600 | ± 4% | 49% | 39% | — | 12% |
| Public Policy Polling[63] | August 8–11, 2013 | 600 | ± 4% | 47% | 38% | — | 15% |
| Public Policy Polling[64] | September 6–9, 2013 | 600 | ± 4% | 52% | 36% | — | 12% |
| Public Policy Polling[85] | October 4–6, 2013 | 746 | ± ?% | 46% | 40% | — | 14% |
| Public Policy Polling[65] | November 8–11, 2013 | 701 | ± 4% | 43% | 44% | — | 14% |
| Public Policy Polling[66] | December 5–8, 2013 | 1,281 | ± 2.7% | 43% | 45% | — | 11% |
| Public Policy Polling[67] | January 9–12, 2014 | 1,384 | ± 2.6% | 41% | 43% | — | 16% |
| Rasmussen Reports[87] | January 22–23, 2014 | 500 | ± 4.5% | 39% | 43% | 4% | 14% |
| Public Policy Polling[53] | February 6–9, 2014 | 708 | ± 3.7% | 40% | 43% | — | 17% |
| American Insights[54] | February 11–15, 2014 | 611 | ± 4% | 38% | 36% | — | 26% |
| Public Policy Polling[89] | March 6–9, 2014 | 884 | ± 3.3% | 43% | 43% | — | 14% |
| SurveyUSA[57] | March 27–31, 2014 | 1,489 | ± 2.6% | 45% | 47% | — | 9% |
| Public Policy Polling[58] | April 3–6, 2014 | 740 | ± 3.6% | 40% | 42% | — | 18% |
| New York Times/Kaiser Family[90] | April 8–15, 2014 | 900 | ± ? | 41% | 39% | 4% | 17% |
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Kay Hagan (D) |
James P. Cain (R) |
Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Public Policy Polling[71] | May 17–20, 2013 | 500 | ± 4.4% | 48% | 41% | 11% |
| Public Policy Polling[61] | June 12–14, 2013 | 500 | ± 4.4% | 46% | 38% | 16% |
| Public Policy Polling[62] | July 12–14, 2013 | 600 | ± 4% | 49% | 36% | 15% |
| Public Policy Polling[63] | August 8–11, 2013 | 600 | ± 4% | 46% | 39% | 14% |
| Public Policy Polling[64] | September 6–9, 2013 | 600 | ± 4% | 50% | 37% | 13% |
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Kay Hagan (D) |
Renee Ellmers (R) |
Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Public Policy Polling[72] | December 6–9, 2012 | 578 | ± 4.1% | 45% | 39% | 19% |
| Public Policy Polling[73] | January 10–13, 2013 | 608 | ± 4% | 46% | 40% | 14% |
| Public Policy Polling[68] | February 7–10, 2013 | 600 | ± 4% | 47% | 38% | 15% |
| Public Policy Polling[69] | March 7–10, 2013 | 611 | ± 4% | 49% | 36% | 15% |
| Public Policy Polling[70] | April 11–14, 2013 | 601 | ± 4% | 48% | 40% | 12% |
| Public Policy Polling[71] | May 17–20, 2013 | 500 | ± 4.4% | 48% | 39% | 12% |
| Public Policy Polling[61] | June 12–14, 2013 | 500 | ± 4.4% | 46% | 39% | 15% |
| Public Policy Polling[62] | July 12–14, 2013 | 600 | ± 4% | 49% | 36% | 14% |
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Kay Hagan (D) |
Terry Embler (R) |
Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Public Policy Polling[68] | February 7–10, 2013 | 600 | ± 4% | 48% | 33% | 20% |
| Public Policy Polling[69] | March 7–10, 2013 | 611 | ± 4% | 52% | 33% | 15% |
| Public Policy Polling[70] | April 11–14, 2013 | 601 | ± 4% | 47% | 37% | 16% |
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Kay Hagan (D) |
Bill Flynn (R) |
Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Public Policy Polling[66] | December 5–8, 2013 | 1,281 | ± 2.7% | 43% | 45% | 12% |
| Public Policy Polling[67] | January 9–12, 2014 | 1,384 | ± 2.6% | 42% | 44% | 15% |
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Kay Hagan (D) |
Dan Forest (R) |
Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Public Policy Polling[69] | March 7–10, 2013 | 611 | ± 4% | 50% | 40% | 11% |
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Kay Hagan (D) |
Virginia Foxx (R) |
Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Public Policy Polling[72] | December 6–9, 2012 | 578 | ± 4.1% | 49% | 39% | 12% |
| Public Policy Polling[73] | January 10–13, 2013 | 608 | ± 4% | 47% | 40% | 13% |
| Public Policy Polling[68] | February 7–10, 2013 | 600 | ± 4% | 48% | 38% | 15% |
| Public Policy Polling[69] | March 7–10, 2013 | 611 | ± 4% | 49% | 37% | 14% |
| Public Policy Polling[70] | April 11–14, 2013 | 601 | ± 4% | 48% | 39% | 13% |
| Public Policy Polling[71] | May 17–20, 2013 | 500 | ± 4.4% | 49% | 42% | 10% |
| Public Policy Polling[61] | June 12–14, 2013 | 500 | ± 4.4% | 46% | 39% | 15% |
| Public Policy Polling[62] | July 12–14, 2013 | 600 | ± 4% | 49% | 37% | 13% |
| Public Policy Polling[63] | August 8–11, 2013 | 600 | ± 4% | 48% | 39% | 13% |
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Kay Hagan (D) |
Heather Grant (R) |
Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Public Policy Polling[63] | August 8–11, 2013 | 600 | ± 4% | 47% | 37% | 16% |
| Public Policy Polling[64] | September 6–9, 2013 | 600 | ± 4% | 48% | 36% | 15% |
| Public Policy Polling[65] | November 8–11, 2013 | 701 | ± 4% | 43% | 40% | 17% |
| Public Policy Polling[66] | December 5–8, 2013 | 1,281 | ± 2.7% | 43% | 43% | 14% |
| Public Policy Polling[67] | January 9–12, 2014 | 1,384 | ± 2.6% | 41% | 42% | 17% |
| Public Policy Polling[53] | February 6–9, 2014 | 708 | ± 3.7% | 39% | 41% | 20% |
| Public Policy Polling[89] | March 6–9, 2014 | 884 | ± 3.3% | 43% | 42% | 15% |
| SurveyUSA[57] | March 27–31, 2014 | 1,489 | ± 2.6% | 44% | 46% | 10% |
| Public Policy Polling[58] | April 3–6, 2014 | 740 | ± 3.6% | 39% | 43% | 19% |
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Kay Hagan (D) |
Mark Harris (R) |
Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Public Policy Polling[71] | May 17–20, 2013 | 500 | ± 4.4% | 46% | 40% | 13% |
| Public Policy Polling[61] | June 12–14, 2013 | 500 | ± 4.4% | 46% | 37% | 17% |
| Public Policy Polling[62] | July 12–14, 2013 | 600 | ± 4% | 49% | 35% | 15% |
| Public Policy Polling[63] | August 8–11, 2013 | 600 | ± 4% | 46% | 37% | 16% |
| Public Policy Polling[64] | September 6–9, 2013 | 600 | ± 4% | 50% | 36% | 14% |
| Public Policy Polling[85] | October 4–6, 2013 | 746 | ± ?% | 46% | 38% | 16% |
| Public Policy Polling[65] | November 8–11, 2013 | 701 | ± 4% | 43% | 41% | 16% |
| Public Policy Polling[66] | December 5–8, 2013 | 1,281 | ± 2.7% | 43% | 43% | 14% |
| Public Policy Polling[67] | January 9–12, 2014 | 1,384 | ± 2.6% | 41% | 43% | 16% |
| Harper Polling[86] | January 20–21, 2014 | 778 | ± 3.51% | 44% | 40% | 15% |
| Public Policy Polling[53] | February 6–9, 2014 | 708 | ± 3.7% | 40% | 42% | 18% |
| American Insights[54] | February 11–15, 2014 | 611 | ± 4% | 39% | 35% | 26% |
| Public Policy Polling[89] | March 6–9, 2014 | 884 | ± 3.3% | 43% | 43% | 14% |
| SurveyUSA[57] | March 27–31, 2014 | 1,489 | ± 2.6% | 43% | 47% | 10% |
| Public Policy Polling[58] | April 3–6, 2014 | 740 | ± 3.6% | 40% | 44% | 17% |
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Kay Hagan (D) |
George Holding (R) |
Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Public Policy Polling[72] | December 6–9, 2012 | 578 | ± 4.1% | 48% | 39% | 13% |
| Public Policy Polling[73] | January 10–13, 2013 | 608 | ± 4% | 45% | 37% | 18% |
| Public Policy Polling[68] | February 7–10, 2013 | 600 | ± 4% | 46% | 36% | 19% |
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Kay Hagan (D) |
Edward Kryn (R) |
Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Public Policy Polling[53] | February 6–9, 2014 | 708 | ± 3.7% | 40% | 40% | 20% |
| Public Policy Polling[89] | March 6–9, 2014 | 884 | ± 3.3% | 43% | 41% | 16% |
| Public Policy Polling[58] | April 3–6, 2014 | 740 | ± 3.6% | 40% | 41% | 19% |
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Kay Hagan (D) |
Patrick McHenry (R) |
Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Public Policy Polling[72] | December 6–9, 2012 | 578 | ± 4.1% | 48% | 40% | 12% |
| Public Policy Polling[73] | January 10–13, 2013 | 608 | ± 4% | 45% | 39% | 16% |
| Public Policy Polling[68] | February 7–10, 2013 | 600 | ± 4% | 45% | 40% | 15% |
| Public Policy Polling[69] | March 7–10, 2013 | 611 | ± 4% | 49% | 39% | 12% |
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Kay Hagan (D) |
Sue Myrick (R) |
Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Public Policy Polling[72] | December 6–9, 2012 | 578 | ± 4.1% | 45% | 44% | 11% |
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Kay Hagan (D) |
Robert Pittenger (R) |
Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Public Policy Polling[73] | January 10–13, 2013 | 608 | ± 4% | 46% | 38% | 16% |
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Kay Hagan (D) |
Jim Snyder (R) |
Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Public Policy Polling[89] | March 6–9, 2014 | 884 | ± 3.3% | 42% | 43% | 15% |
| Public Policy Polling[58] | April 3–6, 2014 | 740 | ± 3.6% | 41% | 41% | 18% |
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Kay Hagan (D) |
Lynn Wheeler (R) |
Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Public Policy Polling[61] | June 12–14, 2013 | 500 | ± 4.4% | 45% | 36% | 19% |
| Public Policy Polling[62] | July 12–14, 2013 | 600 | ± 4% | 49% | 34% | 17% |
| Public Policy Polling[63] | August 8–11, 2013 | 600 | ± 4% | 47% | 36% | 17% |
| Public Policy Polling[64] | September 6–9, 2013 | 600 | ± 4% | 48% | 35% | 17% |
Results
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | ±% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Republican | Thom Tillis | 1,423,259 | 48.82% | +4.64% | |
| Democratic | Kay Hagan (incumbent) | 1,377,651 | 47.26% | −5.39% | |
| Libertarian | Sean Haugh | 109,100 | 3.74% | +0.57% | |
| Write-in | 5,271 | 0.18% | +0.14% | ||
| Total votes | 2,915,281 | 100.00% | N/A | ||
| Republican gain from Democratic | |||||
Counties that flipped from Democratic to Republican
- Caswell (largest city: Yanceyville)
- Duplin (largest city: Wallace)
- Franklin (largest city: Wake Forest)
- Haywood (largest city: Waynesville)
- Jones (largest city: Maysville)
- Madison (largest city: Mars Hill)
- Montgomery (largest city: Troy)
- Chowan (largest municipality: Edenton)
- Columbus (largest municipality: Whiteville)
- Nash (largest municipality: Rocky Mount)
- New Hanover (largest municipality: Wilmington)
- Watauga (largest municipality: Boone)
- Alamance (largest municipality: Burlington)
- Brunswick (largest municipality: Leland)
- Greene (largest municipality: Snow Hill)
- Lee (largest municipality: Sanford)
- Person (largest municipality: Roxboro)
- Rockingham (largest municipality: Eden)
- Yancey (largest municipality: Burnsville)
- Pender (largest municipality: Hampstead)
- Sampson (largest municipality: Clinton)
- Swain (largest municipality: Cherokee)
- Washington (largest municipality: Plymouth)
