2014 United States Senate election in Oregon
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The 2014 United States Senate election in Oregon took place on November 4, 2014, to elect a member of the United States Senate to represent the State of Oregon, concurrently with the election of the Governor of Oregon, as well as other elections to the United States Senate in other states and elections to the United States House of Representatives and various state and local elections.
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November 4, 2014
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 County results Merkley: 40–50% 50–60% 60–70% 70–80% Wehby: 40–50% 50–60% 60–70% | |||||||||||||||||
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Incumbent Democratic Senator Jeff Merkley successfully ran for reelection to a second term. Despite the national midterm climate being a strong one for Republicans, this was actually a stronger Senate election for him in terms of margin of victory, winning by almost 20% and carrying nine additional counties he had lost in 2008.[1] Primary elections were held on May 20, 2014. Merkley easily won the Democratic nomination, while the Republicans nominated pediatric neurosurgeon Monica Wehby. Initially, the race was considered potentially competitive, but Wehby's campaign began to collapse after she faced multiple allegations of stalking and harassment from former partners, and was found to have plagiarized portions of her campaign website.[2]
Background
Democrat Jeff Merkley, the Speaker of the Oregon House of Representatives, had narrowly defeated two-term Republican incumbent Gordon H. Smith with 49% of the vote in 2008.
Democratic primary
Candidates
Declared
- William Bryk, attorney from New York and perennial candidate[3]
- Pavel Goberman, fitness instructor and perennial candidate[4]
- Jeff Merkley, incumbent senator[1]
Results
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Democratic | Jeff Merkley (incumbent) | 277,120 | 92.04% | |
| Democratic | William Bryk | 11,330 | 3.76% | |
| Democratic | Pavel Goberman | 8,436 | 2.81% | |
| write-ins | 4,194 | 1.39% | ||
| Total votes | 301,080 | 100.00% | ||
Republican primary
Candidates
Declared
- Mark Callahan, information technology consultant and perennial candidate[6]
- Jason Conger, state representative[7]
- Tim Crawley, attorney[8]
- Jo Rae Perkins, former Chairwoman of the Linn County Republican Party and candidate for Mayor of Albany in 2010[6]
- Monica Wehby, pediatric neurosurgeon[9]
Withdrew
- Sam Carpenter, businessman[10]
Declined
- Bruce Hanna, state representative[11]
- Rick Miller, owner and founder of Avamere[12]
- Gordon H. Smith, former U.S. Senator[13]
- Greg Walden, U.S. Representative and Chairman of the National Republican Congressional Committee[14]
Endorsements
Jason Conger
Individuals
- Rick Santorum, former U.S. Representative and former U.S. Senator (R-PA) and candidate for president in 2012[15]
Organizations
Newspapers
Monica Wehby
Individuals
- Ben Carson, retired surgeon and conservative activist[citation needed]
- Newt Gingrich, former Speaker of the United States House of Representatives[18]
- Mitt Romney, former governor of Massachusetts and nominee for President in 2012[19]
Newspapers
Polling
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Mark Callahan |
Jason Conger |
Tim Crawley |
Jo Rae Perkins |
Monica Wehby |
Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Benenson Strategy Group[21] | April 14–17, 2014 | 410 | ± ? | — | 24% | — | — | 22% | 55% |
| Wenzel Strategies[22] | May 1–4, 2014 | 607 | ± ? | 4% | 22% | 3% | 3% | 43% | 26% |
| Public Opinion Strategies[23] | May 12–13, 2014 | 500 | ± 4.38% | 2% | 24% | 2% | 2% | 41% | 26% |
Results
Wehby
- 40–50%
- 50–60%
- 60–70%
Conger
- 40–50%
- 50–60%
- 60–70%
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Republican | Monica Wehby | 134,627 | 49.96% | |
| Republican | Jason Conger | 101,401 | 37.63% | |
| Republican | Mark Callahan | 18,220 | 6.76% | |
| Republican | Jo Rae Perkins | 7,602 | 2.82% | |
| Republican | Tim Crawley | 6,566 | 2.44% | |
| Write-in | 1,027 | 0.39% | ||
| Total votes | 266,438 | 100.00% | ||
Independents
General election
Debates
- Complete video of debate, October 14, 2014
Predictions
| Source | Ranking | As of |
|---|---|---|
| The Cook Political Report[26] | Likely D | November 3, 2014 |
| Sabato's Crystal Ball[27] | Likely D | November 3, 2014 |
| Rothenberg Political Report[28] | Likely D | November 3, 2014 |
| Real Clear Politics[29] | Likely D | November 3, 2014 |
Polling
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Jeff Merkley (D) |
Monica Wehby (R) |
Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Harper Polling[30] | April 1–2, 2014 | 670 | ± 3.91% | 46% | 34% | — | 20% |
| Benenson Strategy Group[21] | April 14–17, 2014 | 600 | ± 4% | 52% | 32% | — | 16% |
| Rasmussen Reports[31] | May 21–22, 2014 | 750 | ± 4% | 47% | 37% | 5% | 11% |
| Public Policy Polling[32] | May 22–27, 2014 | 956 | ± 3.2% | 50% | 36% | — | 15% |
| The Tarrance Group*[33] | June 1–3, 2014 | 615 | ± 4.1% | 41% | 39% | 9%[34] | 11% |
| SurveyUSA[35] | June 5–9, 2014 | 560 | ± 4.2% | 50% | 32% | 9% | 9% |
| CBS News/NYT/YouGov[36] | July 5–24, 2014 | 2,088 | ± 2.6% | 53% | 39% | 1% | 7% |
| SurveyUSA[37] | August 1–5, 2014 | 564 | ± 4.2% | 52% | 33% | 7% | 9% |
| Moore Information^[38] | August 5–9, 2014 | 500 | ± 4% | 47% | 38% | — | 16% |
| CBS News/NYT/YouGov[39] | August 18 – September 2, 2014 | 1,541 | ± 4% | 51% | 39% | 1% | 9% |
| Rasmussen Reports[31] | September 2–3, 2014 | 750 | ± 4% | 48% | 35% | 5% | 12% |
| Polling Company/WomanTrend[40] | September 9–11, 2014 | 600 | ± 4% | 42% | 34% | 7%[41] | 14% |
| SurveyUSA[42] | September 22–24, 2014 | 568 | ± 4.2% | 52% | 32% | 8% | 8% |
| CBS News/NYT/YouGov[43] | September 20 – October 1, 2014 | 1,508 | ± 3% | 52% | 39% | 1% | 8% |
| DHM Research[44] | October 2014 | ? | ± 4.3% | 47% | 26% | 6% | 19% |
| SurveyUSA[45] | October 16–19, 2014 | 561 | ± 4.2% | 53% | 32% | 7% | 8% |
| CBS News/NYT/YouGov[43] | October 16–23, 2014 | 1,421 | ± 4% | 51% | 39% | 1% | 9% |
| SurveyUSA[46] | October 23–27, 2014 | 552 | ± 4.3% | 53% | 32% | 8% | 6% |
| Elway Research[47] | October 26–27, 2014 | 403 | ± 5% | 49% | 30% | 3%[48] | 18% |
- ^ Internal poll for Dennis Richardson campaign
- * Internal poll for Monica Wehby campaign
Hypothetical polling
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Jeff Merkley (D) |
Allen Alley (R) |
Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Public Policy Polling[49] | June 21–24, 2012 | 686 | ± 3.7% | 43% | 37% | — | 20% |
| Public Policy Polling[50] | December 3–5, 2012 | 614 | ± 4% | 53% | 36% | — | 12% |
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Jeff Merkley (D) |
Jason Atkinson (R) |
Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Public Policy Polling[49] | June 21–24, 2012 | 686 | ± 3.7% | 43% | 34% | — | 23% |
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Jeff Merkley (D) |
Jason Conger (R) |
Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Harper Polling[30] | April 1–2, 2014 | 670 | ± 3.91% | 47% | 40% | — | 12% |
| Benenson Strategy Group[21] | April 14–17, 2014 | 600 | ± 4% | 50% | 34% | — | 16% |
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Jeff Merkley (D) |
Bruce Hanna (R) |
Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Public Policy Polling[49] | June 21–24, 2012 | 686 | ± 3.7% | 43% | 35% | — | 23% |
| Public Policy Polling[50] | December 3–5, 2012 | 614 | ± 4% | 52% | 34% | — | 14% |
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Jeff Merkley (D) |
Gordon Smith (R) |
Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Public Policy Polling[50] | December 3–5, 2012 | 614 | ± 4% | 47% | 43% | — | 10% |
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Jeff Merkley (D) |
Bruce Starr (R) |
Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Public Policy Polling[50] | December 3–5, 2012 | 614 | ± 4% | 52% | 32% | — | 16% |
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Jeff Merkley (D) |
Greg Walden (R) |
Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Public Policy Polling[49] | June 21–24, 2012 | 686 | ± 3.7% | 40% | 42% | — | 18% |
| Public Policy Polling[50] | December 3–5, 2012 | 614 | ± 4% | 47% | 42% | — | 11% |
Results
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | ±% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Democratic | Jeff Merkley (incumbent) | 814,537 | 55.73% | +6.83% | |
| Republican | Monica Wehby | 538,847 | 36.87% | −8.68% | |
| Libertarian | Mike Monchalin | 44,916 | 3.07% | N/A | |
| Pacific Green | Christina Jean Lugo | 32,434 | 2.22% | N/A | |
| Constitution | James E. Leuenberger | 24,212 | 1.66% | −3.58% | |
| Write-in | 6,672 | 0.45% | N/A | ||
| Total votes | 1,461,618 | 100.00% | N/A | ||
| Democratic hold | |||||
Results by county
| County[51] | Jeff Merkley Democratic |
Monica Wehby Republican |
All others | Margin | Total votes cast | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| # | % | # | % | # | % | # | % | ||
| Baker | 2,334 | 33.0% | 4,238 | 60.0% | 491 | 6.9% | -1,904 | -27.0% | 7,063 |
| Benton | 23,073 | 62.4% | 11,452 | 31.0% | 2,468 | 6.7% | 11,621 | 31.4% | 36,993 |
| Clackamas | 79,219 | 51.4% | 64,447 | 41.8% | 7,267 | 9.8% | 14,772 | 9.6% | 154,205 |
| Clatsop | 8,148 | 56.8% | 5,143 | 35.9% | 1,047 | 7.3% | 3,005 | 20.9% | 14,338 |
| Columbia | 9,957 | 50.3% | 7,879 | 39.8% | 1,953 | 9.9% | 2,078 | 10.5% | 19,789 |
| Coos | 11,521 | 48.5% | 10,294 | 43.4% | 1,920 | 8.1% | 1,227 | 5.1% | 23,735 |
| Crook | 3,233 | 36.6% | 4,874 | 55.2% | 716 | 8.1% | -1,641 | -18.6% | 8,823 |
| Curry | 4,371 | 45.6% | 4,470 | 46.6% | 742 | 7.7% | -99 | -1.0% | 9,583 |
| Deschutes | 34,680 | 50.6% | 29,114 | 42.5% | 4,779 | 6.9% | 5,566 | 8.1% | 68,573 |
| Douglas | 16,401 | 40.1% | 21,112 | 51.7% | 3,343 | 8.2% | -4,711 | -11.6% | 40,856 |
| Gilliam | 366 | 42.0% | 440 | 50.5% | 66 | 7.6% | -74 | -8.5% | 872 |
| Grant | 1,051 | 32.8% | 1,943 | 60.6% | 213 | 6.7% | -892 | -27.8% | 3,207 |
| Harney | 911 | 31.1% | 1,784 | 61.0% | 230 | 7.9% | -873 | -29.9% | 2,925 |
| Hood River | 5,139 | 62.8% | 2,540 | 31.0% | 510 | 6.3% | 2,599 | 31.8% | 8,189 |
| Jackson | 40,740 | 50.0% | 34,619 | 42.5% | 6,040 | 7.5% | 6,121 | 7.5% | 81,399 |
| Jefferson | 2,809 | 41.5% | 3,440 | 50.8% | 518 | 7.7% | -631 | -9.3% | 6,767 |
| Josephine | 14,218 | 42.6% | 15,722 | 47.1% | 3,452 | 10.3% | -1,504 | -4.5% | 33,392 |
| Klamath | 8,150 | 36.1% | 12,522 | 55.5% | 1,898 | 8.4% | -4,372 | -19.4% | 22,570 |
| Lake | 966 | 30.7% | 1,930 | 61.4% | 246 | 9.8% | -964 | -30.7% | 3,142 |
| Lane | 89,269 | 62.2% | 44,815 | 31.2% | 9,511 | 6.6% | 44,454 | 31.0% | 143,595 |
| Lincoln | 11,484 | 59.3% | 6,360 | 32.8% | 1,523 | 7.9% | 5,124 | 26.5% | 19,367 |
| Linn | 18,050 | 42.3% | 20,664 | 48.5% | 3,923 | 9.2% | -2,614 | -6.2% | 42,637 |
| Malheur | 2,051 | 27.6% | 4,755 | 64.1% | 614 | 8.3% | -2,704 | -36.5% | 7,420 |
| Marion | 48,581 | 48.6% | 43,917 | 43.9% | 7,543 | 7.6% | 4,664 | 4.7% | 100,041 |
| Morrow | 1,119 | 35.9% | 1,722 | 55.3% | 273 | 8.7% | -603 | -19.4% | 3,114 |
| Multnomah | 216,613 | 74.6% | 53,035 | 18.3% | 20,696 | 7.2% | 162,578 | 56.3% | 290,344 |
| Polk | 14,356 | 48.5% | 13,118 | 44.4% | 2,102 | 7.1% | 1,238 | 4.1% | 29,576 |
| Sherman | 283 | 33.1% | 523 | 61.2% | 49 | 5.8% | -240 | -28.1% | 855 |
| Tillamook | 5,463 | 52.1% | 4,187 | 39.9% | 831 | 7.9% | 1,276 | 12.2% | 10,481 |
| Umatilla | 6,655 | 35.6% | 10,676 | 57.1% | 1,367 | 7.3% | -4,021 | -21.5% | 18,698 |
| Union | 3,816 | 38.0% | 5,498 | 54.7% | 732 | 7.3% | -1,682 | -16.7% | 10,046 |
| Wallowa | 1,215 | 34.2% | 2,140 | 60.3% | 193 | 5.4% | -925 | -26.1% | 3,548 |
| Wasco | 4,563 | 50.2% | 3,787 | 41.7% | 741 | 8.1% | 776 | 8.5% | 9,091 |
| Washington | 106,769 | 56.2% | 69,406 | 36.5% | 13,796 | 7.3% | 37,363 | 19.7% | 189,971 |
| Wheeler | 275 | 40.5% | 344 | 50.7% | 60 | 8.8% | -69 | -10.2% | 679 |
| Yamhill | 16,688 | 46.7% | 15,937 | 44.6% | 3,109 | 8.7% | 751 | 2.1% | 35,734 |
| Totals | 814,537 | 55.7% | 538,847 | 36.9% | 108,234 | 7.4% | 275,690 | 18.8% | 1,461,618 |
Counties that flipped from Republican to Democratic