2014 United States Senate election in West Virginia
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The 2014 United States Senate election in West Virginia was held on November 4, 2014, to elect a member of the United States Senate to represent the State of West Virginia, concurrently with other elections to the United States Senate in other states and elections to the United States House of Representatives, and various state and local elections. This election was the fifth consecutive even-number year in which a senate election was held in West Virginia after elections in 2006, 2008, 2010, and 2012. This was one of the seven Democratic-held Senate seats up for election in a state that Mitt Romney won in the 2012 presidential election.
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November 4, 2014
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  Moore Capito: 50–60% 60–70% 70–80% 80–90% | |||||||||||||||||
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Incumbent Democratic senator Jay Rockefeller decided to retire rather than run for reelection for a sixth term. The Democrats nominated Secretary of State of West Virginia Natalie Tennant and the Republicans nominated U.S. Representative Shelley Moore Capito. It was the thirteenth U.S. Senate election that involved two major party female nominees in U.S. history.[1]
Capito defeated Tennant and became the first female senator elected in West Virginia's history as well as the first Republican elected to the Senate from West Virginia since 1956, and their victory in this seat since 1942.[2] The results of this election were a near complete flip from 2008, in which Democrat Jay Rockefeller received 64% of the vote. This was the first open-seat non-special election since 1984.
Democratic primary
Candidates
Declared
- Dennis Melton[3]
- Natalie Tennant, secretary of state of West Virginia and candidate for governor in 2011[4]
- David Wamsley, developer[5]
Withdrew
Declined
- Ralph Baxter, attorney and CEO of Orrick, Herrington & Sutcliffe[7]
- Mike Callaghan, former assistant United States Attorney and former chairman of the West Virginia Democratic Party[8]
- Gaston Caperton, former governor[9]
- Nick Casey, former chairman of the West Virginia Democratic Party (running for the U.S. House)[10]
- Robin Davis, justice for the Supreme Court of Appeals of West Virginia[11]
- Glen Gainer III, West Virginia state auditor (running for WV-01)[12]
- Booth Goodwin, United States attorney for the Southern District of West Virginia[13]
- Carte Goodwin, former U.S. senator[14]
- Walt Helmick, West Virginia agriculture commissioner[15]
- Jim Humphreys, former state senator and nominee for West Virginia's 2nd congressional district in 2000 and 2002[5]
- Jeff Kessler, president of the West Virginia Senate and candidate for governor in 2011[16][17]
- Corey Palumbo, state senator[5]
- John Perdue, West Virginia state treasurer and candidate for governor in 2011[16]
- Nick Preservati, attorney[18]
- Nick Rahall, U.S. representative[19]
- Jay Rockefeller, incumbent U.S. senator[20]
- Allen Tackett, former adjutant general of the West Virginia National Guard[21]
- Rick Thompson, West Virginia Secretary of Veterans Affairs, former speaker of the West Virginia House of Delegates and candidate for governor in 2011[22]
- Earl Ray Tomblin, governor of West Virginia[23]
- Erik Wells, state senator[24]
- Bob Wise, former governor[22]
Endorsements
Natalie Tennant
Individuals
- Heidi Heitkamp, U.S. senator from North Dakota[25]
- Jeff Kessler, president of the West Virginia Senate and candidate for governor in 2011[17]
- Carole King, singer
- Joe Manchin, U.S. senator[17]
- Tim Miley, speaker of the West Virginia House of Delegates[17]
- Michelle Obama, First Lady of the United States[26]
- Jay Rockefeller, incumbent U.S. senator[17]
- Allen Tackett, former adjutant general of the West Virginia National Guard[17]
- Earl Ray Tomblin, governor of West Virginia[17]
- Elizabeth Warren, U.S. senator from Massachusetts[25]
Organizations
- American Federation of Teachers[27]
- Council for a Livable World[28]
- Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee[29]
- EMILY's List[30]
- Italian American Democratic Leadership Council[31]
- United Mine Workers of America (UMWA)[32]
- West Virginia AFL-CIO[33]
- West Virginia Education Association[34]
- Women's Political Committee[35]
Newspapers
Polling
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Sheirl Fletcher |
David Harless |
Natalie Tennant |
David Wamsley |
Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Public Policy Polling[36] | September 19–22, 2013 | 600 | ± 4% | 8% | 3% | 51% | 4% | — | 34% |
Hypothetical polling
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Ralph Baxter |
Robin Davis |
Nick Preservati |
Natalie Tennant |
Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MBE Research[37] | May 1–2, 2013 | 207 | 1% | 12% | 1% | 40% | — | 38% |
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Robin Davis |
Carte Goodwin |
Nick Rahall |
Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Harper Polling[38] | January 21, 2013 | 579 | ± 4.07% | 17% | 8% | 38% | — | 37% |
Results
Tennant
- 50–60%
- 60–70%
- 70–80%
- 80–90%
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Democratic | Natalie Tennant | 104,598 | 77.95% | |
| Democratic | Dennis Melton | 15,817 | 11.79% | |
| Democratic | David Wamsley | 13,773 | 10.26% | |
| Total votes | 134,188 | 100.00% | ||
Republican primary
Candidates
Declared
- Larry Butcher[3]
- Shelley Moore Capito, U.S. representative[40]
- Matthew Dodrill[3]
Withdrew
- Rick LeMasters, retired Marine officer and state employee[5][6]
- Pat McGeehan, former state delegate and former Air Force Intelligence officer and captain (running for House of Delegates)[41]
- Scott Regan, Democratic candidate for the state senate in 2010[5][6]
- Edwin Vanover, former Bramwell Police Chief and Democratic candidate for the House of Delegates in 2012[6][42]
Declined
- Bill Maloney, businessman and nominee for governor in 2011 and 2012[43]
- David McKinley, U.S. representative[44]
- Patrick Morrisey, attorney general of West Virginia[15]
- John Raese, businessman, nominee for the U.S. Senate in 1984, 2006, 2010 and 2012 and candidate for governor in 1988[45]
Endorsements
Shelley Moore Capito
Politicians
- Lauren Ellifritz, Mineral County clerk[46]
- Jerry Whisner, Mineral County commissioner[46]
Organizations
- Americans for Legal Immigration[47]
- Charleston Regional Chamber of Commerce[48]
- Maggie's List[48]
- NFIB SAFE Trust[48]
- NRA-Political Victory Fund[48]
- United States Chamber of Commerce[48]
- WESPAC – WV Medical Association[48]
- West Virginia Chamber of Commerce[48]
- West Virginia Farm PAC[48]
- West Virginia Manufacturers Association[48]
- West Virginians for Coal[48]
- West Virginians for Liberty[48]
- West Virginians for Life PAC[48]
Newspapers
Individuals
- Donald Trump, businessman[49]
Polling
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Shelley Moore Capito |
Rick Lemasters |
Pat McGeehan |
Patrick Morrisey |
Scott Regan |
Edwin Vanover |
Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Harper Polling[38] | January 21, 2013 | 462 | ± 4.56% | 73% | — | — | 10% | — | — | 18% |
| Public Policy Polling[36] | September 19–22, 2013 | 348 | ± 5.3% | 72% | 5% | 4% | — | 1% | 2% | 17% |
| Harper Polling[50] | September 24–25, 2013 | 354 | ± 5.21% | 77% | — | 7% | — | — | — | 16% |
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Shelley Moore Capito |
Someone more conservative |
Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Public Policy Polling[36] | September 19–22, 2013 | 348 | ± 5.3% | 65% | 21% | 14% |
Hypothetical polling
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Shelley Moore Capito |
David McKinley |
Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Harper Polling[38] | January 21, 2013 | 462 | ± 4.56% | 70.5% | 14.75% | 14.75% |
Results
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Republican | Shelley Moore Capito | 74,655 | 87.50% | |
| Republican | Matthew Dodrill | 7,072 | 8.29% | |
| Republican | Larry Butcher | 3,595 | 4.21% | |
| Total votes | 85,322 | 100.00% | ||
Independents and third parties
Candidates
Declared
- Bob Henry Baber (Mountain Party), writer, former mayor of Richwood, nominee for governor of West Virginia in 2011 and nominee for the U.S. Senate in 2012[51]
- John Buckley (Libertarian Party), attorney, retired law clerk, former Virginia state delegate, and cousin of William F. Buckley, Jr.[52]
- Phil Hudok (Constitution Party), nominee for West Virginia's 2nd congressional district in 2010[53]
Withdrawn
- Martin Staunton (Independent), former TV anchor (moved to Georgia)[54]
General election
Debates
A televised debate between Tennant and Capito was held on October 7 in Charleston.[55]
Predictions
| Source | Ranking | As of |
|---|---|---|
| The Cook Political Report[56] | Likely R (flip) | November 3, 2014 |
| Sabato's Crystal Ball[57] | Safe R (flip) | November 3, 2014 |
| Rothenberg Political Report[58] | Safe R (flip) | November 3, 2014 |
| Real Clear Politics[59] | Likely R (flip) | November 3, 2014 |
Polling
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Natalie Tennant (D) |
Shelley Moore Capito (R) |
Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| West Virginia Poll[60] | August 15–22, 2013 | 400 | ± 4.9% | 40% | 45% | — | 15% |
| Public Policy Polling[36] | September 19–22, 2013 | 1,110 | ± 2.9% | 36% | 50% | — | 14% |
| Harper Polling[50] | September 24–25, 2013 | 640 | ± 3.87% | 34% | 51% | — | 15% |
| Clarity Campaigns[61] | January 29–30, 2014 | 1,727 | ± 2.35% | 39% | 45% | — | 16% |
| Rasmussen Reports[62] | February 19–20, 2014 | 500 | ± 4.5% | 35% | 49% | 4% | 12% |
| Vox Populi Polling[63] | April 16–17, 2014 | 571 | ± 4.1% | 33% | 49% | — | 19% |
| Rasmussen Reports[62] | May 14–15, 2014 | 750 | ± 4% | 39% | 48% | 5% | 9% |
| West Virginia Poll[64] | May 19–22, 2014 | 400 | ± 4.9% | 38% | 49% | — | 13% |
| CBS News/NYT/YouGov[65] | July 5–24, 2014 | 1,750 | ± 2.7% | 40% | 47% | 1% | 11% |
| Rasmussen Reports[62] | August 19–20, 2014 | 750 | ± 4% | 33% | 50% | — | 17% |
| West Virginia Poll[66] | August 15–23, 2014 | 401 | ± 4.9% | 37% | 54% | — | 9% |
| CBS News/NYT/YouGov[67] | August 18 – September 2, 2014 | 1,284 | ± 4% | 32% | 55% | 1% | 12% |
| CBS News/NYT/YouGov[68] | September 20 – October 1, 2014 | 1,066 | ± 4% | 33% | 56% | 1% | 9% |
| Rasmussen Reports[62] | September 30 – October 1, 2014 | 750 | ± 4% | 39% | 50% | 3% | 8% |
| CBS News/NYT/YouGov[68] | October 16–23, 2014 | 877 | ± 5% | 34% | 56% | 0% | 10% |
Hypothetical polling
With Davis
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Robin Davis (D) |
Shelley Moore Capito (R) |
Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Harper Polling[69] | January 21, 2013 | 1,444 | ± 2.58% | 24% | 51% | — | 25% |
| MBE Research[37] | May 1–2, 2013 | 406 | ± 4.87% | 32% | 51% | — | 18% |
With Fletcher
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Sheirl Fletcher (D) |
Shelley Moore Capito (R) |
Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Public Policy Polling[36] | September 19–22, 2013 | 1,110 | ± 2.9% | 26% | 54% | — | 20% |
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Sheirl Fletcher (D) |
Pat McGeehan (R) |
Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Public Policy Polling[36] | September 19–22, 2013 | 1,110 | ± 2.9% | 24% | 27% | — | 48% |
With Goodwin
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Carte Goodwin (D) |
Shelley Moore Capito (R) |
Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Harper Polling[69] | January 21, 2013 | 1,444 | ± 2.58% | 19% | 53% | — | 28% |
With Rahall
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Nick Rahall (D) |
Shelley Moore Capito (R) |
Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Harper Polling[69] | January 21, 2013 | 1,444 | ± 2.58% | 32% | 50% | — | 18% |
With Rockefeller
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Jay Rockefeller (D) |
Shelley Moore Capito (R) |
Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Public Policy Polling[70] | September 30 – October 2, 2011 | 932 | ± 3.2% | 44% | 48% | — | 7% |
| Repass & Partners[71] | August 22–25, 2012 | 401 | ± 4.9% | 44% | 48% | — | 8% |
With Tennant
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Natalie Tennant (D) |
Pat McGeehan (R) |
Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Public Policy Polling[36] | September 19–22, 2013 | 1,110 | ± 2.9% | 42% | 32% | — | 26% |
Results
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | ±% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Republican | Shelley Moore Capito | 281,820 | 62.12% | +25.86% | |
| Democratic | Natalie Tennant | 156,360 | 34.47% | −29.27% | |
| Libertarian | John Buckley | 7,409 | 1.63% | N/A | |
| Mountain | Bob Henry Baber | 5,504 | 1.21% | N/A | |
| Constitution | Phil Hudok | 2,566 | 0.57% | N/A | |
| Total votes | 453,659 | 100.00% | N/A | ||
| Republican gain from Democratic | |||||
Counties that flipped from Democratic to Republican
- Barbour (largest city: Philippi)
- Cabell (largest city: Huntington)
- Calhoun (largest city: Grantsville)
- Clay (largest city: Clay)
- Gilmer (largest city: Glenville)
- Greenbrier (largest city: Lewisburg)
- Hancock (largest city: Weirton)
- Hardy (largest city: Moorefield)
- Jackson (largest city: Ravenswood)
- Jefferson (largest city: Charles Town)
- Lewis (largest city: Weston)
- Marshall (largest city: Moundsville)
- Mason (largest city: Point Pleasant)
- Mercer (largest city: Bluefield)
- Monongalia (largest city: Morgantown)
- Monroe (largest city: Peterstown)
- Nicholas (largest city: Summersville)
- Ohio (largest city: Wheeling)
- Pendleton (largest city: Franklin)
- Pleasants (largest city: St. Marys)
- Pocahontas (largest city: Marlinton)
- Raleigh (largest city: Beckley)
- Randolph (largest city: Elkins)
- Roane (largest city: Spencer)
- Summers (largest city: Hinton)
- Taylor (largest city: Grafton)
- Tucker (largest city: Parsons)
- Tyler (largest city: Paden City)
- Wayne (largest city: Kenova)
- Wetzel (largest city: New Martinsville)
- Harrison (largest city: Clarksburg)
- Kanawha (largest city: Charleston)
- Lincoln (largest city: Hamlin)
- Wyoming (largest city: Mullens)
- Brooke (largest borough: Wellsburg)
- Fayette (largest city: Fayetteville)
- Logan (largest borough: Logan)
- Mingo (largest borough: Williamson)
- Boone (largest city: Madison)
- Braxton (largest town: Sutton)
- Marion (largest city: Fairmont)
- McDowell (largest city: Welch)
- Webster (largest town: Webster Springs)
- Berkeley (largest municipality: Martinsburg)
- Hampshire (largest municipality: Romney)
- Mineral (largest municipality: Keyser)
- Morgan (largest municipality: Berkeley Springs)
- Upshur (largest municipality: Buckhannon)
- Wirt (largest municipality: Elizabeth)
- Putnam (largest municipality: Hurricane)
- Preston (largest municipality: Kingwood)
- Wood (largest municipality: Parkersburg)
By congressional district
Moore Capito won all three congressional districts.[73]
| District | Tennant | Moore Capito | Representative |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1st | 33.92% | 62.19% | David McKinley |
| 2nd | 33.72% | 63.13% | Alex Mooney |
| 3rd | 35.86% | 60.94% | Evan Jenkins |