2015 Navarrese regional election
Election in the Spanish region of Navarre
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A regional election was held in Navarre on 24 May 2015 to elect the 9th Parliament of the chartered community. All 50 seats in the Parliament were up for election. It was held concurrently with regional elections in twelve other autonomous communities and local elections all across Spain.
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24 May 2015
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All 50 seats in the Parliament of Navarre 26 seats needed for a majority | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| Opinion polls | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Registered | 501,267 3.3% | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Turnout | 342,173 (68.3%) 0.9 pp | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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Regional president Yolanda Barcina, who had only came to power in 2011 after the establishment of a coalition government between the Navarrese People's Union (UPN) and the Socialist Party of Navarre (PSN–PSOE)—which proved to be short-lived, as Barcina herself expelled the PSN from the cabinet in 2012 over disagreements with then-PSN leader Roberto Jiménez—announced on 10 November 2014 that she would not seek re-election for a second term in office. This came after a term that proved to become the most unstable since the Spanish transition to democracy, with Barcina's minority government being unable to pass any budget following 2012, with one failed motion of no confidence in 2013 and the scare of a new one in 2014 over a number of alleged corruption scandals besieging UPN.[1]
After a spell of 19 years in power since 1996, the election saw UPN's support plummet to a low in popular support unseen since 1987, whereas the PSN scored its worst result in history after falling to fifth place. Both parties, together with the support obtained by the then-ruling party in Spain, the People's Party (PP), commanded just 24 seats, two short of a majority, allowing an alliance of Geroa Bai (GBai), EH Bildu and Izquierda-Ezkerra (I–E) with external support from Podemos to access the regional government and have GBai's Uxue Barkos elected as new president.
Background
The 2011 regional election had resulted in a coalition agreement between Navarrese People's Union (UPN) and the Socialist Party of Navarre (PSN), with UPN leader Yolanda Barcina being elected as President.[2] However, tensions remained frequent between both coalition partners, and in June 2012, PSN-PSOE leader and then-Vice President of Navarre Roberto Jiménez' questioning of a UPN's decision to pass an additional budget cut of 132 billion euros resulted in his expulsion from Barcina's cabinet.[3] The PSOE withdrew from the regional government, leaving UPN in minority.[4][5] As a consequence, with the left-wing opposition commanding a majority in Parliament, political instability marked the remainder of the legislature, with the government being unable to pass its bills into law or to approve further budgets.[6]
The eruption of the Caja Navarra scandal in early 2013, involving President Barcina and other UPN high-ranking members,[7][8] resulted in an ill-fated attempt by Bildu and Aralar–Nafarroa Bai to bring forward a censure motion against Yolanda Barcina, which had no realistic prospect of succeeding because of PSN's abstention.[9] Additionally, dissent within Barcina's party materialized with party Vice President Alberto Catalán forcing a leadership election in March 2013 which Barcina was only narrowly able to win.[10] In February 2014, regional minister of Finance, Lourdes Goicoechea, was accused of influence peddling within the regional Treasury,[11][12] prompting Roberto Jiménez to threaten Barcina with a censure motion if she did not voluntarily call for a snap regional election.[13][14] The PSOE national leadership, however, explicitly forbade its regional branch from reaching any kind of agreement that needed Bildu's support, and Jiménez backed down on his threat as a consequence.[15]
The PSN-PSOE was severely mauled in the same year European Parliament election, winning just 14.5% compared to the 31.5% it had won in 2009, and losing over half of its 2009 votes (31,629 compared to 63,848 in 2009). Roberto Jiménez resigned as PSN leader, being succeeded by María Chivite.[16][17] The abertzale left represented under EH Bildu's flag, on the other hand, became the second political force of the community for the first time ever, with 20.2% of the vote.[18]
Podemos' emergence in opinion polls marked the end of the legislature into 2015. Yolanda Barcina, who had initially expressed her willingness to stand for re-election as late as August 2014,[19] announced on 10 November 2014 that she would not stand for a second term.[20] A primary election was held on 29 November, in which incumbent Local Administration minister Javier Esparza defeated Alberto Catalán and became UPN candidate for the 2015 regional election.[21]
Overview
Under the 1982 Reintegration and Improvement of the Chartered Regime, the Parliament of Navarre was the unicameral legislature of the homonymous chartered community, having legislative power in devolved matters, as well as the ability to grant or withdraw confidence from a regional president.[22] The electoral and procedural rules were supplemented by national law provisions.[23]
Date
The term of the Parliament of Navarre expired four years after the date of its previous election, unless it was dissolved earlier. If no snap election was called before the last year of the legislative term, the election decree was required to be issued no later than 54 days before the scheduled election date and published on the following day in the Official Gazette of Navarre (BON), with election day taking place on the fourth Sunday of May four years after the previous election.[24] The previous election was held on 22 May 2011, setting the latest possible date for election day on the fourth Sunday of May four years later, which was 24 May 2015.
The regional president had the prerogative to dissolve the Parliament of Navarre at any given time and call a snap election, provided that no motion of no confidence was in process, no nationwide election was due and some time requirements are met: namely, that dissolution did not occur either during the first legislative session or during the last year of parliament before its planned expiration, nor before one year after a previous one under this procedure.[25] In the event of an investiture process failing to elect a regional president within a three-month period from election day, the Parliament was to be automatically dissolved and a fresh election called.[26]
The election to the Parliament of Navarre was officially called on 31 March 2015 with the publication of the corresponding decree in the BON, setting election day for 24 May and scheduling for the chamber to reconvene on 17 June.[27]
Electoral system
Voting for the Parliament was based on universal suffrage, comprising all Spanish nationals over 18 years of age, registered in Navarre and with full political rights, provided that they had not been deprived of the right to vote by a final sentence, nor were legally incapacitated.[28] Additionally, non-resident citizens were required to apply for voting, a system known as "begged" voting (Spanish: Voto rogado).[29][30]
The Parliament of Navarre had a minimum of 40 and a maximum of 60 seats, with electoral provisions fixing its size at 50. All were elected in a single multi-member constituency—corresponding to the chartered community's territory—using the D'Hondt method and closed-list proportional voting, with a three percent-threshold of valid votes (including blank ballots) regionally.[31]
The law did not provide for by-elections to fill vacant seats; instead, any vacancies arising after the proclamation of candidates and during the legislative term were filled by the next candidates on the party lists or, when required, by designated substitutes.[32]
Outgoing parliament
The table below shows the composition of the parliamentary groups in the chamber at the time of the election call.[33][34]
| Groups | Parties | Legislators | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Seats | Total | ||||
| Navarrese People's Union Parliamentary Group | UPN | 19 | 19 | ||
| Socialists of Navarre Parliamentary Group | PSN–PSOE | 9 | 9 | ||
| Bildu–Navarre Parliamentary Group | Bildu | 7 | 7 | ||
| Aralar–Navarre Yes Parliamentary Group | Aralar | 6 | 6 | ||
| People's Parliamentary Group of Navarre | PP | 4 | 4 | ||
| Left Parliamentary Group | IU | 2 | 3 | ||
| Batzarre | 1 | ||||
| Mixed Group | EAJ/PNV | 1 | 2 | ||
| Zabaltzen | 1 | ||||
Parties and candidates
The electoral law allowed for parties and federations registered in the interior ministry, alliances and groupings of electors to present lists of candidates. Parties and federations intending to form a coalition ahead of an election were required to inform the relevant electoral commission within 10 days of the election call, whereas groupings of electors needed to secure the signature of at least one percent of the electorate in Navarre, disallowing electors from signing for more than one list.[35] Additionally, a balanced composition of men and women was required in the electoral lists, so that candidates of either sex made up at least 40 percent of the total composition.[36]
Below is a list of the main parties and alliances which contested the election:
Opinion polls
The tables below list opinion polling results in reverse chronological order, showing the most recent first and using the dates when the survey fieldwork was done, as opposed to the date of publication. Where the fieldwork dates are unknown, the date of publication is given instead. The highest percentage figure in each polling survey is displayed with its background shaded in the leading party's colour. If a tie ensues, this is applied to the figures with the highest percentages. The "Lead" column on the right shows the percentage-point difference between the parties with the highest percentages in a poll.
Voting intention estimates
The table below lists weighted voting intention estimates. Refusals are generally excluded from the party vote percentages, while question wording and the treatment of "don't know" responses and those not intending to vote may vary between polling organisations. When available, seat projections determined by the polling organisations are displayed below (or in place of) the percentages in a smaller font; 26 seats were required for an absolute majority in the Parliament of Navarre.
- Color key:
Poll conducted after legal ban on opinion polls
| Polling firm/Commissioner | Fieldwork date | Sample size | Turnout |  |
 |
 |
 |
 |
 |
 |
 |
 |
Lead |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2015 regional election | 24 May 2015 | N/a | 68.3 | 27.4 15 |
13.4 7 |
15.8 9 |
14.3 8 |
3.9 2 |
3.7 2 |
0.5 0 |
13.7 7 |
3.0 0 |
11.6 |
| GAD3/Antena 3[p 1] | 11–22 May 2015 | ? | ? | ? 15/16 |
? 6/7 |
? 8/9 |
? 7/8 |
? 3/4 |
? 0/1 |
– | ? 6/7 |
? 1/2 |
? |
| GAD3/ABC[p 2] | 17 May 2015 | ? | ? | ? 14/15 |
? 6 |
? 8/9 |
? 7 |
? 3 |
? 1 |
– | ? 7/8 |
? 3 |
? |
| NC Report/La Razón[p 3][p 4][p 5] | 17 May 2015 | 400 | ? | 22.3 12/13 |
11.9 6/7 |
11.0 6 |
15.2 8/9 |
8.3 4/5 |
5.2 2/3 |
– | 10.8 6 |
8.5 4/5 |
7.1 |
| Gizaker/Grupo Noticias[p 6][p 7] | 13 May 2015 | 800 | 76.2 | 24.3 13 |
11.5 6 |
17.9 10 |
16.1 8 |
4.4 2 |
3.1 1 |
1.4 0 |
14.3 8 |
4.2 2 |
6.4 |
| CIES/Diario de Navarra[p 8][p 9] | 5–7 May 2015 | 1,228 | 71 | 28.5 15/16 |
9.6 5 |
15.1 8 |
13.1 6/7 |
5.6 2/3 |
3.6 1/2 |
– | 13.8 7/8 |
8.2 4 |
13.4 |
| inPactos[p 10][p 11][p 12] | 13–20 Apr 2015 | 508 | ? | 25.5 14 |
14.5 8 |
12.5 6 |
15.0 8 |
4.0 2 |
5.5 3 |
– | 13.5 7 |
5.0 2 |
10.5 |
| CIS[p 13][p 14] | 23 Mar–19 Apr 2015 | 789 | ? | 20.8 11/12 |
11.2 6 |
10.0 5 |
12.5 7 |
6.7 3 |
5.1 2 |
0.5 0 |
19.9 11 |
8.7 4/5 |
0.9 |
| CIES/Diario de Navarra[p 15] | 14–17 Apr 2015 | 800 | 71 | 26.1 14/15 |
10.2 5 |
17.1 9 |
13.7 7 |
6.4 3 |
3.2 0/1 |
– | 14.7 8 |
5.9 3 |
9.0 |
| Herkap[p 16][p 17] | 16–23 Mar 2015 | 400 | 78 | 22.5 13 |
10.4 5 |
7.8 4 |
17.3 9 |
9.5 5 |
6.4 3 |
– | 13.9 7 |
7.7 4 |
5.2 |
| Gizaker/Grupo Noticias[p 18][p 19] | 9–11 Mar 2015 | 800 | 71.2 | 24.2 13 |
13.9 7 |
15.8 9 |
14.4 8 |
5.2 2 |
3.3 1 |
– | 16.4 9 |
3.0 1 |
7.8 |
| NC Report/La Razón[p 20][p 21][p 22] | 2–11 Mar 2015 | 400 | ? | 22.3 12/13 |
11.2 6/7 |
9.4 5/6 |
16.5 8/9 |
10.2 5/6 |
5.2 2/3 |
– | 8.6 4/5 |
9.7 5/6 |
5.8 |
| CIES/Diario de Navarra[p 23] | 28 Nov 2014 | ? | ? | ? 15/16 |
? 6 |
? 4/5 |
? 9 |
? 1/2 |
? 2 |
– | ? 12 |
– | ? |
| Orbere/Parliament of Navarre[p 24] | 3–7 Nov 2014 | 1,500 | 64.5 | 15.3 8 |
9.7 5 |
8.6 4 |
20.8 11 |
3.2 1 |
4.2 2 |
2.8 1 |
35.5 18 |
– | 14.7 |
| Llorente & Cuenca[p 25] | 31 Oct 2014 | ? | ? | ? 15/17 |
? 7/8 |
? 7/9 |
? 7/10 |
? 3/4 |
? 2/4 |
– | ? 0/1 |
– | ? |
| Torrene Consulting/Gara[p 26][p 27] | 13–31 Oct 2014 | 400 | 69.9 | 23.1 13 |
12.1 6 |
11.3 7 |
16.4 9 |
8.5 4 |
4.5 2 |
– | 15.6 9 |
– | 6.7 |
| 2014 EP election[p 28] | 25 May 2014 | N/a | 44.5 | – | 14.5 (9) |
2.5 (0) |
20.2 (12) |
25.1 (16) |
9.5 (6) |
4.6 (2) |
9.3 (6) |
1.8 (0) |
4.9 |
| inPactos[p 29][p 30] | 21–26 Feb 2014 | 500 | ? | 23.5 13 |
21.0 11 |
16.5 9 |
17.5 9 |
5.0 2 |
12.0 6 |
– | – | – | 2.5 |
| NC Report/La Razón[p 31][p 32] | 15 Oct–12 Nov 2013 | ? | ? | ? 16/17 |
? 9 |
? 10/11 |
? 10 |
? 3 |
? 3/4 |
– | – | – | ? |
| inPactos[p 33] | 30 Sep 2013 | 500 | ? | 28.0 15 |
19.5 11 |
16.0 9 |
14.0 7 |
5.0 2 |
11.5 6 |
– | – | – | 8.5 |
| Gizaker/Grupo Noticias[p 34][p 35][p 36] | 8–13 May 2013 | 800 | 66.9 | 26.8 15 |
16.1 8 |
19.1 10 |
20.0 11 |
5.2 2 |
7.3 4 |
– | – | – | 6.8 |
| NC Report/La Razón[p 37][p 38][p 39] | 15 Apr–10 May 2013 | 250 | ? | ? 18 |
16.2 9 |
? 8 |
? 8 |
8.3 4 |
? 3 |
– | – | – | ? |
| Geroa Bai[p 40] | 9 May 2013 | ? | ? | 27.3 13/15 |
10.7 5/6 |
21.3 10/12 |
19.0 10/12 |
5.5 2/3 |
9.5 4/6 |
– | – | – | 6.0 |
| Gara[p 41] | 23 Apr 2012 | 625 | 70 | 35.0 19 |
13.0 7 |
16.9 9 |
18.7 10 |
4.8 2 |
6.8 3 |
– | – | – | 16.3 |
| 2011 general election | 20 Nov 2011 | N/a | 68.9 | [b] | 22.0 (12) |
12.8 (7) |
14.9[c] (8) |
38.2 (20) |
5.5 (3) |
2.1 (0) |
– | – | 16.2 |
| 2011 regional election | 22 May 2011 | N/a | 67.4 | 34.5 19 |
15.9 9 |
15.4 8 |
13.3 7 |
7.3 4 |
5.7 3 |
0.7 0 |
– | – | 18.6 |
Voting preferences
The table below lists raw, unweighted voting preferences.
| Polling firm/Commissioner | Fieldwork date | Sample size | |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
 |
 |
Lead |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2015 regional election[d] | 24 May 2015 | N/a | 19.2 | 9.5 | 11.2 | 10.1 | 2.8 | 2.6 | 0.4 | 9.7 | 2.1 | N/a | 28.6 | 8.0 |
| CIS[p 13] | 23 Mar–19 Apr 2015 | 789 | 7.2 | 6.6 | 5.5 | 10.7 | 3.3 | 3.3 | 0.3 | 15.3 | 4.7 | 31.5 | 9.2 | 4.6 |
| Gizaker/Grupo Noticias[p 19] | 9–11 Mar 2015 | 800 | 10.5 | 6.9 | 11.0 | 9.5 | 2.3 | 3.1 | – | 16.0 | 2.3 | 20.1 | 13.8 | 5.0 |
| Orbere/Parliament of Navarre[p 24] | 3–7 Nov 2014 | 1,500 | 8.4 | 5.7 | 5.1 | 12.6 | 1.8 | 2.4 | 1.4 | 19.4 | – | 27.2 | 11.6 | 6.8 |
| Torrene Consulting/Gara[p 26] | 13–31 Oct 2014 | 400 | 10.9 | 5.7 | 3.6 | 8.9 | 3.9 | 2.6 | – | 10.4 | – | 14.1 | 38.5 | 0.5 |
| 2014 EP election[d] | 25 May 2014 | N/a | – | 6.6 | 1.2 | 9.2 | 11.5 | 4.3 | 2.1 | 4.3 | 0.8 | N/a | 53.6 | 2.3 |
| inPactos[p 29] | 21–26 Feb 2014 | 500 | 10.7 | 13.3 | 11.1 | 14.3 | 2.4 | 9.9 | 0.8 | – | – | 11.7 | 15.1 | 1.0 |
| 2011 general election[d] | 20 Nov 2011 | N/a | [b] | 15.4 | 9.0 | 10.4[c] | 26.8 | 3.9 | 1.4 | – | – | N/a | 28.7 | 11.4 |
| 2011 regional election[d] | 22 May 2011 | N/a | 23.8 | 10.9 | 10.6 | 9.1 | 5.0 | 3.9 | 0.5 | – | – | N/a | 30.3 | 12.9 |
Victory preferences
The table below lists opinion polling on the victory preferences for each party in the event of a regional election taking place.
| Polling firm/Commissioner | Fieldwork date | Sample size | |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Other/ None |
|
Lead |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CIS[p 13] | 23 Mar–19 Apr 2015 | 789 | 10.0 | 9.0 | 6.9 | 11.3 | 3.5 | 3.2 | 0.3 | 17.3 | 4.7 | 9.0 | 24.9 | 6.0 |
Victory likelihood
The table below lists opinion polling on the perceived likelihood of victory for each party in the event of a regional election taking place.
| Polling firm/Commissioner | Fieldwork date | Sample size | |
|
|
|
|
|
|
Other/ None |
|
Lead |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CIS[p 13] | 23 Mar–19 Apr 2015 | 789 | 47.9 | 4.5 | 2.2 | 2.4 | 3.1 | 4.7 | 0.1 | 1.2 | 33.8 | 43.2 |
Preferred President
The table below lists opinion polling on leader preferences to become president of the Government of Navarre.
| Polling firm/Commissioner | Fieldwork date | Sample size | .jpg) |
|
.jpg) |
.jpg) |
.jpg) |
.jpg) |
.jpg) |
.jpg) |
Other/ None/ Not care |
|
Lead |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Barcina UPN |
Esparza UPN |
Chivite PSN |
Barkos GBai |
Araiz EH Bildu |
Beltrán PP |
Nuin I–E (n) |
Pérez Podemos | ||||||
| Gizaker/Grupo Noticias[p 7] | 13 May 2015 | 800 | – | 8.8 | 5.8 | 22.5 | 7.8 | – | – | 5.1 | 4.9 | 41.8 | 13.7 |
| CIS[p 13] | 23 Mar–19 Apr 2015 | 789 | – | 7.3 | 4.2 | 18.5 | 7.4 | 1.8 | 2.3 | 3.7 | 3.1 | 51.7 | 11.1 |
| Gizaker/Grupo Noticias[p 19] | 9–11 Mar 2015 | 800 | 1.8 | 5.3 | 3.3 | 16.0 | 5.9 | – | – | 6.0 | 10.6 | 51.1 | 10.0 |
Results
 | ||||||
| Parties and alliances | Popular vote | Seats | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Votes | % | ±pp | Total | +/− | ||
| Navarrese People's Union (UPN) | 92,705 | 27.44 | −7.04 | 15 | −4 | |
| Yes to the Future (GBai)1 | 53,497 | 15.83 | +0.42 | 9 | +1 | |
| Basque Country Gather (EH Bildu) | 48,166 | 14.25 | +0.97 | 8 | +1 | |
| We Can (Podemos/Ahal Dugu) | 46,207 | 13.67 | New | 7 | +7 | |
| Socialist Party of Navarre (PSN–PSOE) | 45,164 | 13.37 | −2.48 | 7 | −2 | |
| People's Party (PP) | 13,289 | 3.93 | −3.36 | 2 | −2 | |
| Left (I–E (n)) | 12,482 | 3.69 | −2.02 | 2 | −1 | |
| Citizens–Party of the Citizenry (C's) | 9,993 | 2.96 | New | 0 | ±0 | |
| Animalist Party Against Mistreatment of Animals (PACMA) | 2,304 | 0.68 | New | 0 | ±0 | |
| Equo–European Green Party (Equo) | 2,170 | 0.64 | New | 0 | ±0 | |
| Union, Progress and Democracy (UPyD) | 1,740 | 0.51 | −0.17 | 0 | ±0 | |
| Navarrese Cannabis Representation (RCN/NOK) | 1,733 | 0.51 | −0.47 | 0 | ±0 | |
| Navarrese Freedom (Ln) | 955 | 0.28 | New | 0 | ±0 | |
| Internationalist Solidarity and Self-Management (SAIn) | 880 | 0.26 | −0.07 | 0 | ±0 | |
| Blank ballots | 6,610 | 1.96 | −0.56 | |||
| Total | 337,895 | 50 | ±0 | |||
| Valid votes | 337,895 | 98.75 | −0.02 | |||
| Invalid votes | 4,278 | 1.25 | +0.02 | |||
| Votes cast / turnout | 342,173 | 68.26 | +0.83 | |||
| Abstentions | 159,094 | 31.74 | −0.83 | |||
| Registered voters | 501,267 | |||||
| Sources[33][45][46] | ||||||
Footnotes:
| ||||||
Aftermath
Notes
- Results for NaBai 2011 in the 2011 election.
- Does not include non-resident citizens.