2019 Navarrese regional election
Election in the Spanish region of Navarre
From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
A regional election was held in Navarre on 26 May 2019 to elect the 10th Parliament of the chartered community. All 50 seats in the Parliament were up for election. It was held concurrently with regional elections in eleven other autonomous communities and local elections all across Spain, as well as the 2019 European Parliament election.
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26 May 2019
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All 50 seats in the Parliament of Navarre 26 seats needed for a majority | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| Opinion polls | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Registered | 511,225 2.0% | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Turnout | 350,362 (68.5%) 0.2 pp | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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Ahead of the election, the three main right-from-centre parties—namely, Navarrese People's Union (UPN), the People's Party (PP) and Citizens (Cs)—signed an electoral alliance under the Navarra Suma (NA+) brand,[1][2] in order to maximize their options against the incumbent government, formed by Geroa Bai (GBai), EH Bildu and Izquierda-Ezkerra (I–E) with external support from Podemos, which in the previous election had ousted UPN from power after 19 years of uninterrupted rule. Concurrently, the Socialist Party of Navarre (PSN–PSOE) under María Chivite was on the rise, benefitting from a national bandwagon effect for the party following the general election held only one month earlier, on 28 April.
The election saw a victory for the NA+ alliance, which was able to secure more seats than the incumbent government (20 to 19). In particular, the collapse in the Podemos's vote share benefitted the PSN–PSOE, which scored its best result since 2007. There was speculation that UPN would be able to access the regional government through an agreement or consent from the PSN, but Chivite opted instead to secure the support of GBai, Podemos and I–E, as well as EH Bildu's tactical abstention, to become the first Socialist president of Navarre since Javier Otano stepped down from the office in 1996.
Overview
Under the 1982 Reintegration and Improvement of the Chartered Regime, the Parliament of Navarre was the unicameral legislature of the homonymous chartered community, having legislative power in devolved matters, as well as the ability to grant or withdraw confidence from a regional president.[3] The electoral and procedural rules were supplemented by national law provisions.[4]
Date
The term of the Parliament of Navarre expired four years after the date of its previous election, unless it was dissolved earlier. If no snap election was called before the last year of the legislative term, the election decree was required to be issued no later than 54 days before the scheduled election date and published on the following day in the Official Gazette of Navarre (BON), with election day taking place on the fourth Sunday of May four years after the previous election.[5] The previous election was held on 24 May 2015, setting the latest possible date for election day on the fourth Sunday of May four years later, which was 26 May 2019.
The regional president had the prerogative to dissolve the Parliament of Navarre at any given time and call a snap election, provided that no motion of no confidence was in process, no nationwide election was due and some time requirements are met: namely, that dissolution did not occur either during the first legislative session or during the last year of parliament before its planned expiration, nor before one year after a previous one under this procedure.[6] In the event of an investiture process failing to elect a regional president within a three-month period from election day, the Parliament was to be automatically dissolved and a fresh election called.[7]
The election to the Parliament of Navarre was officially called on 2 April 2019 with the publication of the corresponding decree in the BON, setting election day for 26 May and scheduling for the chamber to reconvene on 19 June.[8]
Electoral system
Voting for the Parliament was based on universal suffrage, comprising all Spanish nationals over 18 years of age, registered in Navarre and with full political rights, provided that they had not been deprived of the right to vote by a final sentence.[9][b] Additionally, non-resident citizens were required to apply for voting, a system known as "begged" voting (Spanish: Voto rogado).[11][12]
The Parliament of Navarre had a minimum of 40 and a maximum of 60 seats, with electoral provisions fixing its size at 50. All were elected in a single multi-member constituency—corresponding to the chartered community's territory—using the D'Hondt method and closed-list proportional voting, with a three percent-threshold of valid votes (including blank ballots) regionally.[13]
The law did not provide for by-elections to fill vacant seats; instead, any vacancies arising after the proclamation of candidates and during the legislative term were filled by the next candidates on the party lists or, when required, by designated substitutes.[14]
Outgoing parliament
The table below shows the composition of the parliamentary groups in the chamber at the time of the election call.[15][16]
| Groups | Parties | Legislators | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Seats | Total | ||||
| Navarrese People's Union Parliamentary Group | UPN | 15 | 15 | ||
| Yes to the Future Parliamentary Group | Zabaltzen | 8 | 9 | ||
| EAJ/PNV | 1 | ||||
| EH Bildu Navarre Parliamentary Group | EH Bildu | 8 | 8 | ||
| We Can–Now Yes Parliamentary Group | Orain Bai | 4[c] | 7 | ||
| Podemos | 3 | ||||
| Socialist Party of Navarre Parliamentary Group | PSN–PSOE | 7 | 7 | ||
| Mixed Group | PP | 2 | 4 | ||
| I–E (n) | 2 | ||||
Parties and candidates
The electoral law allowed for parties and federations registered in the interior ministry, alliances and groupings of electors to present lists of candidates. Parties and federations intending to form a coalition ahead of an election were required to inform the relevant electoral commission within 10 days of the election call, whereas groupings of electors needed to secure the signature of at least one percent of the electorate in Navarre, disallowing electors from signing for more than one list.[18] Additionally, a balanced composition of men and women was required in the electoral lists, so that candidates of either sex made up at least 40 percent of the total composition.[19]
Below is a list of the main parties and alliances which contested the election:
Opinion polls
The tables below list opinion polling results in reverse chronological order, showing the most recent first and using the dates when the survey fieldwork was done, as opposed to the date of publication. Where the fieldwork dates are unknown, the date of publication is given instead. The highest percentage figure in each polling survey is displayed with its background shaded in the leading party's colour. If a tie ensues, this is applied to the figures with the highest percentages. The "Lead" column on the right shows the percentage-point difference between the parties with the highest percentages in a poll.
Voting intention estimates
The table below lists weighted voting intention estimates. Refusals are generally excluded from the party vote percentages, while question wording and the treatment of "don't know" responses and those not intending to vote may vary between polling organisations. When available, seat projections determined by the polling organisations are displayed below (or in place of) the percentages in a smaller font; 26 seats were required for an absolute majority in the Parliament of Navarre.
- Color key:
Poll conducted after legal ban on opinion polls
| Polling firm/Commissioner | Fieldwork date | Sample size | Turnout |  |
 |
 |
 |
 |
 |
 |
 |
 |
 |
 |
Lead |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2019 regional election | 26 May 2019 | N/a | 68.5 | [d] | 17.3 9 |
14.5 7 |
4.7 2 |
20.6 11 |
[d] | 3.0 1 |
[d] | – | 1.3 0 |
36.6 20 |
16.0 |
| ElectoPanel/Electomanía[p 1] | 22–23 May 2019 | ? | ? | [d] | 18.4 10 |
15.2 8 |
9.1 4 |
18.0 9 |
[d] | 4.1 2 |
[d] | – | 3.1 1 |
31.2 16 |
12.8 |
| ElectoPanel/Electomanía[p 2] | 21–22 May 2019 | ? | ? | [d] | 18.3 10 |
15.1 8 |
8.9 4 |
18.5 10 |
[d] | 4.1 2 |
[d] | – | 2.9 0 |
31.1 16 |
12.6 |
| ElectoPanel/Electomanía[p 3] | 20–21 May 2019 | ? | ? | [d] | 18.4 9 |
15.2 8 |
9.0 4 |
18.5 10 |
[d] | 4.0 2 |
[d] | – | 3.0 1 |
31.0 16 |
12.5 |
| ElectoPanel/Electomanía[p 4] | 19–20 May 2019 | ? | ? | [d] | 18.3 10 |
15.1 8 |
9.1 4 |
18.7 10 |
[d] | 3.9 2 |
[d] | – | 2.9 0 |
30.7 16 |
12.0 |
| NC Report/La Razón[p 5][p 6][p 7] | 19 May 2019 | ? | ? | [d] | ? 8 |
? 7 |
? 4 |
20.1 11 |
[d] | ? 2 |
[d] | – | ? 0 |
33.7 18 |
13.6 |
| inPactos[p 8][p 9] | 17–19 May 2019 | 1,200 | ? | [d] | 17.0 9 |
13.0 7/8 |
? 4/5 |
17.5 9/10 |
[d] | 3.0 1 |
[d] | – | 3.3 1 |
34.0 18/19 |
16.5 |
| ElectoPanel/Electomanía[p 10] | 16–19 May 2019 | ? | ? | [d] | 18.9 10 |
15.5 8 |
8.8 4 |
18.0 9 |
[d] | 4.4 2 |
[d] | – | 3.7 1 |
29.7 16 |
10.8 |
| Sigma Dos/El Mundo[p 11] | 17 May 2019 | ? | ? | [d] | 17.6 9/10 |
13.5 7 |
6.3 3 |
18.4 9/10 |
[d] | 5.2 2 |
[d] | – | 1.0 0 |
35.3 19 |
16.9 |
| Gizaker/Grupo Noticias[p 12][p 13] | 17 May 2019 | 900 | 70 | [d] | 20.6 11 |
16.2 8 |
8.7 4 |
14.9 8 |
[d] | 5.3 2 |
[d] | – | 4.4 2 |
28.8 15 |
8.2 |
| ElectoPanel/Electomanía[p 14] | 13–16 May 2019 | ? | ? | [d] | 18.6 10 |
15.4 8 |
8.6 4 |
19.5 10 |
[d] | 3.7 1 |
[d] | – | 3.1 1 |
30.1 16 |
10.6 |
| Gizaker/EITB[p 15] | 14–15 May 2019 | 650 | 70.0 | [d] | 18.5 10 |
16.9 9 |
10.3 4/5 |
15.2 8 |
[d] | 3.4 1/2 |
[d] | – | 3.5 1/2 |
31.0 16/17 |
12.5 |
| ElectoPanel/Electomanía[p 16] | 10–13 May 2019 | ? | ? | [d] | 18.5 9 |
15.6 8 |
8.4 4 |
19.5 10 |
[d] | 4.0 2 |
[d] | – | 3.1 1 |
29.6 16 |
10.1 |
| CIES/Diario de Navarra[28] | 6–13 May 2019 | 1,217 | 71 | [d] | 16.9 8/9 |
14.5 7/8 |
? 4/5 |
18.0 9/10 |
[d] | 3.8 1/2 |
[d] | – | 2.6 0/1 |
34.8 18/19 |
16.8 |
| ElectoPanel/Electomanía[p 17] | 7–10 May 2019 | ? | ? | [d] | 18.2 9 |
16.1 8 |
7.9 4 |
19.9 10 |
[d] | 4.4 2 |
[d] | – | 3.0 1 |
29.3 16 |
9.4 |
| Gizaker/Grupo Noticias[p 18][p 19] | 7–9 May 2019 | 1,200 | 71.5 | [d] | 19.8 10/11 |
15.3 7/8 |
9.6 5 |
16.6 8/9 |
[d] | 4.1 2 |
[d] | – | 4.3 2 |
30.0 15/16 |
10.2 |
| ElectoPanel/Electomanía[p 20] | 4–7 May 2019 | ? | ? | [d] | 18.7 10 |
16.0 8 |
7.6 4 |
19.3 10 |
[d] | 4.6 2 |
[d] | – | 3.2 1 |
29.5 15 |
10.2 |
| ElectoPanel/Electomanía[p 21] | 29 Apr–4 May 2019 | ? | ? | [d] | 18.0 10 |
16.6 9 |
7.1 3 |
19.5 10 |
[d] | 4.9 2 |
[d] | – | 2.9 0 |
29.9 16 |
10.4 |
| April 2019 general election | 28 Apr 2019 | N/a | 72.5 | [d] | 6.1 (3) |
12.7 (6) |
[e] | 25.8 (14) |
[d] | [e] | [d] | 18.6 (10) |
4.8 (2) |
29.3 (15) |
4.5 |
| CIS[p 22][p 23] | 21 Mar–23 Apr 2019 | 381 | ? | [d] | 14.0 7/9 |
14.1 7/8 |
10.8 6 |
21.2 11/12 |
[d] | 4.4 1/2 |
[d] | – | – | 30.2 16/17 |
9.0 |
| CIES/Diario de Navarra[p 24] | 8–15 Apr 2019 | 800 | 71–74 | [d] | 17.6 9/10 |
13.9 7 |
8.4 4 |
17.1 9 |
[d] | ? 1/2 |
[d] | – | ? 0/1 |
34.7 18/19 |
17.1 |
| ElectoPanel/Electomanía[p 25] | 31 Mar–7 Apr 2019 | ? | ? | [d] | 20.2 11 |
15.2 8 |
6.9 3 |
17.4 9 |
[d] | 4.9 2 |
[d] | – | 2.3 0 |
31.3 17 |
11.1 |
| ElectoPanel/Electomanía[p 26] | 24–31 Mar 2019 | ? | ? | [d] | 20.0 11 |
15.3 8 |
7.0 3 |
17.7 9 |
[d] | 5.1 2 |
[d] | – | 2.3 0 |
30.6 17 |
10.6 |
| ElectoPanel/Electomanía[p 27] | 17–24 Mar 2019 | ? | ? | [d] | 19.9 11 |
15.2 8 |
7.1 3 |
18.6 10 |
[d] | 4.7 2 |
[d] | – | 2.3 0 |
30.5 16 |
10.6 |
| ElectoPanel/Electomanía[p 28] | 10–17 Mar 2019 | ? | ? | [d] | 19.5 10 |
15.0 8 |
7.3 4 |
18.3 10 |
[d] | 4.7 2 |
[d] | – | 2.6 0 |
30.5 16 |
11.0 |
| ElectoPanel/Electomanía[p 29] | 3–10 Mar 2019 | ? | ? | 25.9 14 |
19.4 10 |
15.0 8 |
7.4 4 |
18.3 10 |
[f] | 4.7 2 |
5.1 2 |
– | 2.4 0 |
– | 6.5 |
| ElectoPanel/Electomanía[p 30] | 22 Feb–3 Mar 2019 | ? | ? | 26.0 14 |
18.8 10 |
15.0 8 |
[e] | 19.3 11 |
[f] | [e] | 5.5 3 |
7.0 4 |
2.7 0 |
– | 6.7 |
| Gizaker/EITB[p 31] | 23 Nov–3 Dec 2018 | 650 | ? | 23.5 13 |
23.0 13 |
15.4 8 |
7.5 4 |
9.4 5 |
3.0 0 |
7.7 4 |
6.6 3 |
– | 1.1 0 |
– | 0.5 |
| GAD3/Navarra.com[p 32] | 16–18 Oct 2018 | 806 | ? | ? 13 |
? 9 |
? 6 |
? 6 |
? 9 |
? 2 |
? 2 |
? 3 |
– | – | – | ? |
| UPNA/Parliament of Navarre[p 33][p 34] | 3–10 Oct 2018 | 955 | ? | 25.9 15 |
18.4 10 |
14.3 8 |
6.4 3 |
16.3 9 |
2.2 0 |
4.8 2 |
5.4 3 |
– | – | – | 7.5 |
| Telwind/Grupo Noticias[p 35][p 36] | 3–4 Sep 2018 | 1,200 | 68.6 | 25.4 13/14 |
19.9 10/11 |
14.9 8 |
10.5 5 |
13.6 7 |
3.0 0/1 |
4.2 2 |
5.4 2/3 |
– | – | – | 5.5 |
| GBai[p 37] | 6 Jun 2018 | ? | ? | ? 14 |
? 9/11 |
? 8 |
? 3/5 |
? 7/8 |
? 0/1 |
? 2 |
? 3 |
– | – | – | ? |
| SyM Consulting[p 38][p 39] | 5–6 Jun 2018 | 700 | 66.1 | 24.3 13/14 |
15.4 8 |
14.5 8 |
5.3 2/3 |
20.0 11 |
2.4 0 |
5.9 3 |
7.6 4 |
– | – | – | 4.3 |
| Gizaker/EITB[p 40] | 14–21 May 2018 | 600 | ? | 24.8 13 |
19.6 11 |
14.5 8 |
8.5 4 |
13.7 7 |
1.6 0 |
7.2 4 |
6.4 3 |
– | – | – | 5.2 |
| SyM Consulting[p 41][p 42] | 8–10 Mar 2018 | 1,100 | 69.6 | 23.9 13/14 |
17.1 9 |
16.7 9 |
6.0 3 |
16.0 9 |
2.6 0 |
4.9 2 |
8.6 4/5 |
– | – | – | 6.8 |
| inPactos[p 43][p 44][p 45] | 15–27 Jan 2018 | 515 | 70 | 28.0 15 |
18.0 10 |
15.0 8 |
7.0 4 |
16.0 8 |
4.0 2 |
4.0 2 |
3.0 1 |
– | – | – | 10.0 |
| UPNA/Parliament of Navarre[p 46][p 47] | 25 Sep–8 Oct 2017 | 900 | 70 | 28.3 16 |
15.3 8 |
16.5 9 |
11.2 6 |
10.4 5 |
5.3 3 |
3.7 2 |
3.1 1 |
– | – | – | 11.8 |
| Gizaker/EITB[p 48] | 16–20 May 2017 | 600 | ? | 25.2 14 |
20.5 11 |
15.1 8 |
12.3 7 |
11.2 6 |
4.0 2 |
4.4 2 |
– | – | – | – | 4.7 |
| Telwind/Grupo Noticias[p 49][p 50] | 3–9 May 2017 | 1,200 | ? | 26.7 14/15 |
18.0 10 |
14.8 8 |
12.8 7 |
11.7 6 |
3.8 2 |
4.5 2 |
3.1 0/1 |
– | – | – | 8.7 |
| UPNA/Parliament of Navarre[p 51][p 52][p 53] | 12–26 Sep 2016 | 800 | 67.4 | 27.5 15 |
15.5 8/9 |
15.6 8/9 |
11.7 6 |
12.4 7 |
5.3 3 |
3.8 2 |
2.6 0 |
– | – | – | 11.9 |
| 2016 general election | 26 Jun 2016 | N/a | 67.4 | [g] | 4.3 (2) |
9.4 (5) |
[e] | 17.3 (9) |
31.9 (17) |
[e] | 6.1 (3) |
28.3 (15) |
– | – | 3.6 |
| 2015 general election | 20 Dec 2015 | N/a | 70.9 | [g] | 8.7 (4) |
9.9 (5) |
23.0 (12) |
15.5 (8) |
28.9 (16) |
4.1 (2) |
7.1 (3) |
– | – | – | 5.9 |
| 2015 regional election | 24 May 2015 | N/a | 68.3 | 27.4 15 |
15.8 9 |
14.2 8 |
13.7 7 |
13.4 7 |
3.9 2 |
3.7 2 |
3.0 0 |
– | – | – | 11.6 |
Voting preferences
The table below lists raw, unweighted voting preferences.
| Polling firm/Commissioner | Fieldwork date | Sample size | |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
 |
 |
Lead |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2019 regional election[h] | 26 May 2019 | N/a | [d] | 12.4 | 10.5 | 3.4 | 14.8 | [d] | 2.2 | [d] | – | 0.9 | 26.2 | N/a | 27.8 | 11.4 |
| April 2019 general election[h] | 28 Apr 2019 | N/a | [d] | 4.6 | 9.6 | [e] | 19.5 | [d] | [e] | [d] | 14.1 | 3.6 | 22.1 | N/a | 23.7 | 2.6 |
| CIS[p 22] | 21 Mar–23 Apr 2019 | 381 | [d] | 10.3 | 9.2 | 6.7 | 13.9 | [d] | 2.9 | [d] | – | – | 13.1 | 33.8 | 6.2 | 0.8 |
| UPNA/Parliament of Navarre[p 54][p 34] | 3–10 Oct 2018 | 955 | 18.2 | 16.0 | 8.5 | 5.8 | 15.5 | 2.0 | 5.0 | 4.9 | – | – | – | 12.0 | 8.5 | 2.2 |
| UPNA/Parliament of Navarre[p 47] | 25 Sep–8 Oct 2017 | 900 | 11.3 | 11.1 | 7.5 | 5.6 | 7.2 | 3.1 | 2.3 | 2.4 | – | – | – | 40.7 | 5.2 | 0.2 |
| UPNA/Parliament of Navarre[p 55] | 12–26 Sep 2016 | 800 | 12.8 | 6.7 | 5.8 | 7.5 | 7.0 | 3.2 | 2.9 | 0.9 | – | – | – | 40.4 | 9.7 | 6.1 |
| 2016 general election[h] | 26 Jun 2016 | N/a | [g] | 3.0 | 6.6 | [e] | 12.1 | 22.3 | [e] | 4.3 | 19.8 | – | – | N/a | 29.4 | 2.5 |
| 2015 general election[h] | 20 Dec 2015 | N/a | [g] | 6.4 | 7.3 | 16.9 | 11.4 | 21.3 | 3.0 | 5.2 | – | – | – | N/a | 25.7 | 4.4 |
| 2015 regional election[h] | 24 May 2015 | N/a | 19.2 | 11.2 | 10.1 | 9.7 | 9.5 | 2.8 | 2.6 | 2.1 | – | – | – | N/a | 28.6 | 8.0 |
Victory preferences
The table below lists opinion polling on the victory preferences for each party in the event of a regional election taking place.
| Polling firm/Commissioner | Fieldwork date | Sample size | |
|
|
|
|
|
|
Other/ None |
|
Lead |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gizaker/Grupo Noticias[p 19] | 7–9 May 2019 | 1,200 | 19.9 | 14.0 | 4.8 | 13.4 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 19.5 | 5.1 | 19.8 | 0.4 |
Results
 | ||||||
| Parties and alliances | Popular vote | Seats | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Votes | % | ±pp | Total | +/− | ||
| Sum Navarre (NA+)1 | 127,346 | 36.57 | +2.24 | 20 | +3 | |
| Socialist Party of Navarre (PSN–PSOE) | 71,838 | 20.63 | +7.26 | 11 | +4 | |
| Yes to the Future (GBai) | 60,323 | 17.32 | +1.49 | 9 | ±0 | |
| Basque Country Gather (EH Bildu) | 50,631 | 14.54 | +0.29 | 7 | −1 | |
| We Can (Podemos) | 16,518 | 4.74 | −8.93 | 2 | −5 | |
| Left (I–E (n)) | 10,472 | 3.01 | −0.68 | 1 | −1 | |
| Vox (Vox) | 4,546 | 1.31 | New | 0 | ±0 | |
| Equo–European Green Party (Equo) | 1,597 | 0.46 | −0.18 | 0 | ±0 | |
| Navarrese Cannabis Representation (RCN/NOK) | 1,251 | 0.36 | −0.15 | 0 | ±0 | |
| Navarrese Freedom (Ln) | 502 | 0.14 | −0.14 | 0 | ±0 | |
| Internationalist Solidarity and Self-Management (SAIn) | 438 | 0.13 | −0.13 | 0 | ±0 | |
| Blank ballots | 2,731 | 0.78 | −1.18 | |||
| Total | 348,193 | 50 | ±0 | |||
| Valid votes | 348,193 | 99.38 | +0.63 | |||
| Invalid votes | 2,169 | 0.62 | −0.63 | |||
| Votes cast / turnout | 350,362 | 68.53 | +0.27 | |||
| Abstentions | 160,863 | 31.47 | −0.27 | |||
| Registered voters | 511,225 | |||||
| Sources[15][29][30] | ||||||
Footnotes:
| ||||||
Aftermath
Notes
- Amendments in 2018 granted the right to vote to those legally incapacitated.[10]
- Within Unidas Podemos.
- Does not include non-resident citizens.