2016 New Hampshire gubernatorial election
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The 2016 New Hampshire gubernatorial election took place on November 8, 2016, to elect the governor of New Hampshire, concurrently with the 2016 U.S. presidential election, as well as elections to the United States Senate, elections to the United States House of Representatives and various state and local elections.
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November 8, 2016
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Sununu: 40–50% 50–60% 60–70% 70–80% 80–90%
Van Ostern: 40–50% 50–60% 60–70% 70–80% >90% Tie: 40–50% No votes | |||||||||||||||||
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The primaries were held on September 13.
Incumbent Democratic governor Maggie Hassan was eligible to run for re-election to a third term in office, but she instead successfully ran for the U.S. Senate against incumbent Kelly Ayotte.[1][2][3][4] In the general election, Republican nominee Chris Sununu defeated Democrat Colin Van Ostern and Libertarian state representative Max Abramson to become the first Republican governor of New Hampshire elected since 2002. With a margin of 2.27%, this election was the second-closest race of the 2016 gubernatorial election cycle, behind only the election in North Carolina.
Background
Governor Maggie Hassan, the incumbent from the Democratic Party, declined to run for reelection, choosing to seek a U.S. Senate seat instead. Both major parties had multiple declared candidates, leading to primary elections that were held September 13, 2016.
New Hampshire and Vermont are the only states in the country whose governors are elected every two years.
Democratic primary
Candidates
Declared
- Mark Connolly, former New Hampshire Deputy Secretary of State[5]
- Derek Dextraze
- Ian Freeman, radio host
- Steve Marchand, former mayor of Portsmouth[6]
- Colin Van Ostern, Executive Councilor[7]
Declined
- Jackie Cilley, state representative, former state senator and candidate for governor in 2012[8]
- Dan Feltes, state senator[8]
- Maggie Hassan, incumbent governor (running for U.S. Senate)[4]
- Andrew Hosmer, state senator[9][10]
- Ann McLane Kuster, U.S. representative (running for re-election)[11]
- Shawn O'Connor, businessman (running for NH-01)[8][12][13]
- Chris Pappas, Executive Councilor[8]
- Stefany Shaheen, Portsmouth City Councilor and daughter of U.S. senator Jeanne Shaheen[8]
- Carol Shea-Porter, former U.S. representative (running for NH-01)[14][15]
- Donna Soucy, state senator[11]
- Mike Vlacich, campaign manager for Senator Shaheen[8]
Polling
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Mark Connolly |
Derek Dextraze |
Ian Freeman |
Steve Marchand |
Colin Van Ostern |
Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| InsideSources/NH Journal[16] | July 19–21, 2016 | 444 | ± 5.1% | 7% | 1% | 3% | 6% | 13% | — | 71% |
| Boston Herald/Franklin Pierce University[17] | May 25–28, 2016 | 405 | ± 4.9% | 5% | — | — | 2% | 12% | 6% | 74% |
| Public Policy Polling[18] | November 30–December 2, 2015 | 458 | ± 4.6% | 15% | — | — | — | 21% | — | 64% |
Results
Van Ostern
- Van Ostern—60–70%
- Van Ostern—50–60%
- Van Ostern—40–50%
- Van Ostern—30–40%
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Democratic | Colin Van Ostern | 37,696 | 51.99 | |
| Democratic | Steve Marchand | 18,338 | 25.29 | |
| Democratic | Mark Connolly | 14,840 | 20.47 | |
| Democratic | Ian Freeman | 1,069 | 1.47 | |
| Democratic | Derek Dextraze | 557 | 0.77 | |
| Total votes | 72,500 | 100.00 | ||
Republican primary
Candidates
Declared
- Frank Edelblut, state representative[20]
- Jeanie Forrester, state senator[21][22]
- Ted Gatsas, Mayor of Manchester[23]
- John Lavoie
- Chris Sununu, Executive Councilor, son of former governor John H. Sununu and brother of former U.S. senator John E. Sununu[24]
Declined
- Jeb Bradley, Majority Leader of the State Senate and former U.S. representative[25]
- Walt Havenstein, businessman and nominee for governor in 2014[26]
- Donnalee Lozeau, Mayor of Nashua[27]
- Chuck Morse, president of the State Senate[25]
- Andy Sanborn, state senator[25]
Endorsements
Frank Edelblut
- 603 Alliance[28]
- New Hampshire Liberty Alliance[29]
- Fifty-seven current members of the New Hampshire House of Representatives: Chris Adams, Glen Aldrich, Keith Ammon, John Balcom, Steven Beaudoin, Rick Christie, James Coffey, Allen Cook, Susan Delemus, Dan Donovan, Eric Eastman, Tracy Emerick, Elizabeth Ferreira, Valerie Fraser, Harold French, Bart Fromuth, Dick Gordon, Linda Gould, Warren Groen, Joe Hannon, J.R. Hoell, Edith Hogan, Werner Horn, Ray Howard, Paul Ingbretson, Dan Itse, Tom Kaczynski, Joe Lachance, Don Lebrun, Donald McClarren, Jim McConnell, Mark McLean, Carol McGuire, Dan McGuire, Josh Moore, Bill Ohm, Jeff Oligny, Jason Parent, Joe Pitre, Katherine Prudhomme O'Brien, Kimberly Rice, Eric Schleien, Carl Seidel, Tammy Simmons, Kathleen Souza, Greg Smith, James Spillane, Victoria Sullivan, Mike Sylvia, Dan Tamburello, Len Turcotte, Jordan Ulery, Peter Varney, Michael Vose, Joshua Whitehouse, Ted Wright, Kurt Wuelper[30]
- The Conway Daily Sun[31]
Jeanie Forrester
Ted Gatsas
- Jeb Bradley, New Hampshire Senate Majority Leader[34]
- The Keene Sentinel[35]
- Nashua Telegraph[36]
Chris Sununu
Individuals
- Charles Bass, former U.S. representative[37]
- Scott Brown, former United States senator from Massachusetts[38]
- Bill Cahill, former Executive Councilor[39]
- Louis Georgopoulos, former Executive Councilor[39]
- Judd Gregg, former governor of New Hampshire[40]
- Ruth Griffin, former Executive Councilor[39]
- John Kasich, Governor of Ohio and 2016 presidential candidate[41]
- Joseph Kenney, executive councilor[39]
- Steve Merrill, former governor of New Hampshire[40]
- Chuck Morse, president of the New Hampshire Senate[42]
- Earl Rinker, former executive councilor[39]
- Dan St. Hilaire, former executive councilor[39]
- Raymond Wieczorek, former executive councilor[39]
Newspapers
Polling
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Frank Edelblut |
Jeannie Forrester |
Ted Gatsas |
Jon Lavoie |
Chris Sununu |
Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NH Journal[citation needed] | July 19–21, 2016 | 619 | ± 5.1% | 4% | 5% | 21% | 2% | 27% | — | 41% |
| Boston Herald/Franklin Pierce University[17] | May 25–28, 2016 | 405 | ± 4.9% | 0% | 7% | 10% | — | 44% | 3% | 36% |
| Public Policy Polling[18] | November 30–December 2, 2015 | 454 | ± 4.6% | 12% | — | — | — | 60% | — | 28% |
Results
Sununu
- Sununu—30–40%
- Sununu—<30%
Edelblut
- Edelblut—30–40%
- Edelblut—40–50%
Forrester
- Forrester—30–40%
- Forrester—40–50%
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Republican | Chris Sununu | 34,137 | 30.68 | |
| Republican | Frank Edelblut | 33,149 | 29.79 | |
| Republican | Ted Gatsas | 22,840 | 20.53 | |
| Republican | Jeanie Forrester | 19,716 | 17.72 | |
| Republican | John Lavoie | 1,429 | 1.28 | |
| Total votes | 111,271 | 100.00 | ||
Libertarian Party
Candidates
Declared
- Max Abramson, state representative[45]
Independents
General election
Debates
- Complete video of debate, October 26, 2016 - C-SPAN
Predictions
| Source | Ranking | As of |
|---|---|---|
| The Cook Political Report[49] | Tossup | August 12, 2016 |
| Daily Kos[50] | Tossup | November 8, 2016 |
| Rothenberg Political Report[51] | Tossup | November 3, 2016 |
| Sabato's Crystal Ball[52] | Lean D | November 7, 2016 |
| Real Clear Politics[53] | Tossup | November 1, 2016 |
| Governing[54] | Tossup | October 27, 2016 |
Polling
Aggregate polls
| Source of poll aggregation |
Dates administered |
Dates updated |
Colin Van Ostern (D) |
Chris Sununu (R) |
Other/Undecided [a] |
Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Real Clear Politics[55] | October 28 – November 6, 2016 | November 6, 2016 | 43.2% | 44.4% | 12.4% | Sununu +1.2% |
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Colin Van Ostern (D) |
Chris Sununu (R) |
Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SurveyMonkey[56] | November 1–7, 2016 | 696 | ± 4.6% | 55% | 42% | — | 3% |
| WMUR/UNH[57] | November 3–6, 2016 | 707 | ± 3.7% | 48% | 37% | 2% | 13% |
| SurveyMonkey[58] | Oct 31–Nov 6, 2016 | 672 | ± 4.6% | 56% | 41% | — | 3% |
| WMUR/UNH[57] | November 2–5, 2016 | 645 | ± 3.7% | 47% | 38% | 3% | 12% |
| WMUR/UNH[57] | November 1–4, 2016 | 588 | ± 3.7% | 47% | 37% | 2% | 14% |
| WMUR/UNH[57] | Oct 31–Nov 3, 2016 | 515 | ± 3.7% | 47% | 37% | 2% | 14% |
| SurveyMonkey[59] | Oct 28–Nov 3, 2016 | 672 | ± 4.6% | 54% | 42% | — | 4% |
| Suffolk University[60] | Oct 31–Nov 2, 2016 | 500 | ± 4.4% | 37% | 41% | 6% | 15% |
| American Research Group[61] | Oct 31–Nov 2, 2016 | 600 | ± 4.0% | 44% | 48% | 2% | 6% |
| WMUR/UNH[57] | Oct 30–Nov 2, 2016 | 466 | ± 3.7% | 46% | 38% | 2% | 14% |
| WBUR/MassINC[62] | Oct 29–Nov 1, 2016 | 500 LV | ± 4.4% | 44% | 49% | 1% | 5% |
| 43% | 45% | <1% | 10% | ||||
| UMass Lowell/7News[63] | Oct 28–Nov 2, 2016 | 695 LV | ± 4.3% | 43% | 47% | 5% | 4% |
| 901 RV | ± 3.8% | 41% | 45% | 5% | 8% | ||
| SurveyMonkey[64] | Oct 27–Nov 2, 2016 | 658 | ± 4.6% | 54% | 42% | — | 4% |
| Public Policy Polling[65] | Oct 31–Nov 1, 2016 | 781 | ± 3.5% | 47% | 44% | — | 9% |
| WMUR/UNH[57] | Oct 29–Nov 1, 2016 | 468 | ± 3.7% | 43% | 40% | 3% | 14% |
| WBUR/MassINC[62] | Oct 29–Nov 1, 2016 | 500 | ± 4.4% | 44% | 49% | 1% | 5% |
| 43% | 45% | — | 10% | ||||
| SurveyMonkey[66] | Oct 26–Nov 1, 2016 | 635 | ± 4.6% | 53% | 43% | — | 4% |
| WMUR/UNH[57] | October 28–31, 2016 | 513 | ± 3.7% | 44% | 40% | 2% | 14% |
| SurveyMonkey[67] | October 25–31, 2016 | 659 | ± 4.6% | 53% | 43% | — | 4% |
| WMUR/UNH[57] | October 27–30, 2016 | 463 | ± 3.7% | 43% | 40% | 2% | 14% |
| WMUR/UNH[68] | October 26–30, 2016 | 641 | ± 3.9% | 43% | 40% | 2% | 14% |
| WMUR/UNH[57] | October 26–29, 2016 | 516 | ± 3.7% | 42% | 41% | 5% | 12% |
| NH Journal | October 26–28, 2016 | 408 | ± 4.2% | 42% | 45% | 2% | 11% |
| Monmouth University[69] | October 22–25, 2016 | 401 | ± 4.9% | 48% | 43% | 4% | 5% |
| NBC/WSJ/Marist[70] | October 20–24, 2016 | 768 LV | ± 3.5% | 47% | 46% | 2% | 4% |
| 1,020 RV | ± 3.1% | 47% | 46% | 2% | 5% | ||
| UMass Amherst/WBZ[71] | October 17–21, 2016 | 772 | ± 4.5% | 44% | 43% | 6% | 7% |
| 42% | 39% | 5% | 14% | ||||
| WMUR/UNH[72] | October 11–17, 2016 | 770 | ± 3.5% | 44% | 38% | 4% | 15% |
| Washington Post/SurveyMonkey[73] | October 8–16, 2016 | 569 | ± 0.5% | 53% | 43% | — | 4% |
| WBUR/MassINC[74] | October 10–12, 2016 | 501 | ± 4.4% | 47% | 44% | 2% | 8% |
| 41% | 41% | 2% | 15% | ||||
| 7News/UMass Lowell[75] | October 7–11, 2016 | 517 | ± 4.9% | 39% | 41% | 6% | 13% |
| Suffolk University[76] | October 3–5, 2016 | 500 | ± 4.4% | 36% | 40% | 2% | 20% |
| Greenberg Quinlan Rosner - Save the Children Action Network[77] | Sept 29–Oct 4, 2016 | 500 | ± 4.3% | 44% | 44% | 6% | 6% |
| WBUR/MassINC[78] | September 27–29, 2016 | 502 | ± 4.4% | 44% | 47% | 2% | 7% |
| 41% | 44% | 2% | 11% | ||||
| American Research Group[79] | September 20–25, 2016 | 522 | ± 4.2% | 44% | 45% | 1% | 10% |
| Monmouth University[80] | September 17–20, 2016 | 400 | ± 4.9% | 43% | 49% | 1% | 7% |
| Public Policy Polling[81] | January 4–6, 2016 | 1,036 | ± 3.0% | 35% | 39% | — | 26% |
| Public Policy Polling[18] | November 30–December 2, 2015 | 990 | ± 3.1% | 34% | 40% | — | 25% |
| Public Policy Polling[82] | October 16–18, 2015 | 880 | ± 3.3% | 34% | 41% | — | 25% |
| Public Policy Polling[83] | August 21–24, 2015 | 841 | ± 3.4% | 32% | 39% | — | 29% |
| WMUR/UNH[84] | July 7–20, 2015 | 472 | ± 4.5% | 26% | 36% | — | 37% |
| Public Policy Polling[85] | April 9–13, 2015 | 747 | ± 3.6% | 34% | 37% | — | 29% |
Hypothetical polling
with Maggie Hassan
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Maggie Hassan (D) |
Jeb Bradley (R) |
Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Public Policy Polling[83] | August 21–24, 2015 | 841 | ± 3.4% | 48% | 39% | — | 13% |
| Public Policy Polling[85] | April 9–13, 2015 | 747 | ± 3.6% | 53% | 36% | — | 11% |
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Maggie Hassan (D) |
Donnalee Lozeau (R) |
Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Public Policy Polling[85] | April 9–13, 2015 | 747 | ± 3.6% | 55% | 25% | — | 20% |
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Maggie Hassan (D) |
Chris Sununu (R) |
Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Public Policy Polling[83] | August 21–24, 2015 | 841 | ± 3.4% | 48% | 41% | — | 11% |
| Public Policy Polling[85] | April 9–13, 2015 | 747 | ± 3.6% | 52% | 35% | — | 13% |
with Stefany Shaheen
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Stefany Shaheen (D) |
Jeb Bradley (R) |
Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Public Policy Polling[82] | October 16–18, 2015 | 880 | ± 3.3% | 37% | 39% | — | 23% |
with Chris Pappas
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Chris Pappas (D) |
Jeb Bradley (R) |
Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Public Policy Polling[83] | August 21–24, 2015 | 841 | ± 3.4% | 33% | 38% | — | 29% |
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Chris Pappas (D) |
Chris Sununu (R) |
Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Public Policy Polling[83] | August 21–24, 2015 | 841 | ± 3.4% | 34% | 38% | — | 28% |
with Terie Norelli
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Terie Norelli (D) |
Jeb Bradley (R) |
Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Public Policy Polling[83] | August 21–24, 2015 | 841 | ± 3.4% | 33% | 39% | — | 29% |
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Terie Norelli (D) |
Chris Sununu (R) |
Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Public Policy Polling[83] | August 21–24, 2015 | 841 | ± 3.4% | 34% | 39% | — | 27% |
with Mark Connolly
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Mark Connolly (D) |
Frank Edelblut (R) |
Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Public Policy Polling[81] | January 4–6, 2016 | 1,036 | ± 3% | 31% | 24% | — | 45% |
| Public Policy Polling[18] | November 30–December 2, 2015 | 990 | ± 3.1% | 33% | 24% | — | 43% |
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Mark Connolly (D) |
Chris Sununu (R) |
Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Public Policy Polling[81] | January 4–6, 2016 | 1,036 | ± 3% | 36% | 38% | — | 25% |
| Public Policy Polling[18] | November 30–December 2, 2015 | 990 | ± 3.1% | 36% | 40% | — | 24% |
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Stefany Shaheen (D) |
Chris Sununu (R) |
Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Public Policy Polling[82] | October 16–18, 2015 | 880 | ± 3.3% | 40% | 41% | — | 19% |
with Jackie Cilley
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Jackie Cilley (D) |
Jeb Bradley (R) |
Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Public Policy Polling[85] | April 9–13, 2015 | 747 | ± 3.6% | 31% | 37% | — | 31% |
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Jackie Cilley (D) |
Donnalee Lozeau (R) |
Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Public Policy Polling[85] | April 9–13, 2015 | 747 | ± 3.6% | 32% | 26% | — | 43% |
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Jackie Cilley (D) |
Chris Sununu (R) |
Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Public Policy Polling[85] | April 9–13, 2015 | 747 | ± 3.6% | 36% | 37% | — | 27% |
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Colin Van Ostern (D) |
Frank Edelblut (R) |
Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Public Policy Polling[81] | January 4–6, 2016 | 1,036 | ± 3% | 30% | 25% | — | 45% |
| Public Policy Polling[18] | November 30–December 2, 2015 | 990 | ± 3.1% | 30% | 26% | — | 44% |
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Colin Van Ostern (D) |
Jeb Bradley (R) |
Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Public Policy Polling[82] | October 16–18, 2015 | 880 | ± 3.3% | 31% | 40% | — | 29% |
| Public Policy Polling[83] | August 21–24, 2015 | 841 | ± 3.4% | 31% | 38% | — | 31% |
| Public Policy Polling[85] | April 9–13, 2015 | 747 | ± 3.6% | 31% | 37% | — | 32% |
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Colin Van Ostern (D) |
Donnalee Lozeau (R) |
Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Public Policy Polling[85] | April 9–13, 2015 | 747 | ± 3.6% | 31% | 27% | — | 42% |
Results
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | ±% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Republican | Chris Sununu | 354,040 | 48.84% | +1.41% | |
| Democratic | Colin Van Ostern | 337,589 | 46.57% | −5.81% | |
| Libertarian | Max Abramson | 31,243 | 4.31% | N/A | |
| Write-in | 1,991 | 0.28% | +0.09% | ||
| Total votes | 724,863 | 100.00% | N/A | ||
| Republican gain from Democratic | |||||
By county
| County | Sununu# | Sununu% | Van Ostern# | Van Ostern% | Abramson# | Abramson% | Scatter# | Scatter% | Total votes | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Belknap | 18,798 | 54.70% | 14,069 | 40.94% | 1,403 | 4.08% | 94 | 0.00% | 34,364 | 13.76% |
| Carroll | 15,192 | 52.38% | 12,503 | 43.29% | 1,126 | 3.90% | 58 | 0.00% | 28,879 | 9.09% |
| Cheshire | 17,107 | 42.25% | 21,471 | 53.02% | 1,802 | 4.45% | 114 | 0.00% | 40,494 | -10.77% |
| Coos | 7,424 | 48.90% | 7,006 | 46.14% | 702 | 4.62% | 51 | 0.00% | 15,183 | 2.76% |
| Grafton | 19,685 | 39.65% | 27,621 | 55.64% | 2,215 | 4.46% | 122 | 0.00% | 49,643 | -15.99% |
| Hillsborough | 103,811 | 49.70% | 95,231 | 45.59% | 9,128 | 4.37% | 698 | 0.00% | 208,868 | 4.11% |
| Merrimack | 37,295 | 45.51% | 41,195 | 50.26% | 3,245 | 3.96% | 222 | 0.00% | 81,957 | -4.75% |
| Rockingham | 94,385 | 53.52% | 74,076 | 42.00% | 7,499 | 4.25% | 411 | 0.00% | 176,371 | 11.52% |
| Strafford | 29,578 | 44.12% | 34,173 | 50.97% | 3,128 | 4.67% | 164 | 0.00% | 67,043 | -6.85% |
| Sullivan | 10,765 | 48.80% | 10,244 | 46.43% | 995 | 4.51% | 57 | 0.00% | 22,061 | 2.37% |
Counties that flipped from Democratic to Republican
By congressional district
Sununu won one of the two congressional districts, which elected a Democrat.[87]
| District | Sununu | Van Ostern | Representative |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1st | 50% | 45% | Carol Shea-Porter |
| 2nd | 47% | 48% | Annie Kuster |
Notes
- Calculated by taking the difference of 100% and all other candidates combined.