2018 New Hampshire gubernatorial election
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The 2018 New Hampshire gubernatorial election took place on November 6, 2018, to elect the governor of New Hampshire. Incumbent Republican governor Chris Sununu won re-election to a second term, defeating former state senator Molly Kelly. Sununu was the first incumbent Republican to win reelection as governor since Steve Merrill was reelected in 1994.
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November 6, 2018
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Sununu: 40–50% 50–60% 60–70% 70–80% 80–90% >90% Kelly: 40–50% 50–60% 60–70% 70–80% 80–90% >90% Tie: 40–50% No votes | |||||||||||||||||
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Primary elections were held on September 11, 2018. The gubernatorial election was coincident with races for the state legislature and the United States House of Representatives. This was one of eight Republican-held governorships up for election in a state won by Hillary Clinton in the 2016 presidential election.
Background
New Hampshire is one of only two states, along with Vermont, where governors are elected to two-year terms. Republican Chris Sununu was elected in the 2016 election.[1]
Republican primary
Candidates
Declared
- Chris Sununu, incumbent governor[2]
Polling
Results
Sununu—≥90%
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Republican | Chris Sununu (incumbent) | 91,025 | 98.3 | |
| Democratic | Molly Kelly (write-in) | 577 | 0.6 | |
| Democratic | Steve Marchand (write-in) | 160 | 0.2 | |
| Libertarian | Jiletta Jarvis (write-in) | 90 | 0.0 | |
| Libertarian | Aaron Day (write-in) | 39 | 0.0 | |
| Scattering | 692 | 0.7 | ||
| Total votes | 92,583 | 100.0 | ||
Democratic primary
Candidates
Declared
- Molly Kelly, former state senator[5]
- Steve Marchand, former mayor of Portsmouth and candidate for governor in 2016[6]
Declined
- Dan Feltes, state senator[7]
- Chris Pappas, Executive Councilor (running for NH-01)[8][9]
- Colin Van Ostern, former executive councilor and nominee for governor in 2016 (running for Secretary of State)[10]
- Andru Volinsky, Executive Councilor[11]
Polling
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Mark Connolly |
Molly Kelly |
Steve Marchand |
Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Suffolk University[12] | April 26–30, 2018 | 401 | – | – | 21% | 19% | – | 58% |
| TargetPoint/GQR[3] | March 8–15, 2018 | 346 | ± 5.3% | 9% | 17% | 11% | 4% | 58% |
Results
Kelly—70–80%
Kelly—60–70%
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Democratic | Molly Kelly | 80,598 | 65.5 | |
| Democratic | Steve Marchand | 41,612 | 33.8 | |
| Republican | Chris Sununu (write-in) (incumbent) | 563 | 0.5 | |
| Libertarian | Jiletta Jarvis (write-in) | 17 | 0.0 | |
| Libertarian | Aaron Day (write-in) | 8 | 0.0 | |
| Scattering | 167 | 0.1 | ||
| Total votes | 122,965 | 100.0 | ||
Libertarian primary
Candidates
Declared
- Aaron Day, former chair of the Free State Project[13] and independent candidate for the U.S. Senate in 2016[14]
- Jilletta Jarvis, former secretary of the Libertarian Party of New Hampshire and independent candidate for governor in 2016[15][16]
Results
Jarvis—60–70%
Jarvis—50–60%
Jarvis—40–50%
Day—40–50%
Day—50–60%
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Libertarian | Jilletta Jarvis | 576 | 51.9 | |
| Libertarian | Aaron Day | 487 | 43.9 | |
| Republican | Chris Sununu (write-in) (incumbent) | 21 | 1.9 | |
| Democratic | Molly Kelly (write-in) | 9 | 0.8 | |
| Democratic | Steve Marchand (write-in) | 6 | 0.5 | |
| Scattering | 11 | 1.0 | ||
| Total votes | 1,110 | 100.0 | ||
General election
Predictions
| Source | Ranking | As of |
|---|---|---|
| The Cook Political Report[17] | Lean R | October 26, 2018 |
| The Washington Post[18] | Lean R | November 5, 2018 |
| FiveThirtyEight[19] | Likely R | November 5, 2018 |
| Rothenberg Political Report[20] | Lean R | November 1, 2018 |
| Sabato's Crystal Ball[21] | Lean R | November 5, 2018 |
| RealClearPolitics[22] | Tossup | November 4, 2018 |
| Daily Kos[23] | Likely R | November 5, 2018 |
| Fox News[24][a] | Lean R | November 5, 2018 |
| Politico[25] | Lean R | November 5, 2018 |
| Governing[26] | Lean R | November 5, 2018 |
- Notes
- The Fox News Midterm Power Rankings uniquely does not contain a category for Safe/Solid races
Endorsements
Molly Kelly (D)
Former U.S. Executive Branch officials
- Hillary Clinton, 67th United States Secretary of State[27]
- Barack Obama, 44th President of the United States[28]
U.S. senators
- Cory Booker, U.S. senator (D-NJ)[29]
- Maggie Hassan, U.S. senator (D-NH) and former governor of New Hampshire[30]
- Jeanne Shaheen, U.S. senator (D-NH) and former governor of New Hampshire[31]
- Elizabeth Warren, U.S. senator (D-MA)[32]
U.S. representatives
- Ann McLane Kuster, U.S. representative (D-NH-2)[33]
Local and state politicians
- Peter Burling, former state senator[34]
- Joyce Craig, Mayor of Manchester[35]
- Lou D'Allesandro, state senator[34]
- Betsi DeVries, former state senator[34]
- Dan Feltes, state senator[34]
- Joe Foster, former attorney general of New Hampshire[36]
- Peggy Gilmour, former state senator[34]
- Martha Hennessey, state senator[37]
- Beverly Hollingworth, former Executive Councilor of New Hampshire and former state senator[34]
- Jay Kahn, state senator[34]
- Sylvia Larsen, former president of the New Hampshire Senate[34]
- Mandy Merrill, former state senator[34]
- Terie Norelli, former speaker of the New Hampshire House of Representatives[36]
- Deborah Reynolds, former state senator[34]
- Steve Shurtleff, New Hampshire House of Representatives Democratic Minority Leader[36]
- Donna Soucy, State Senate Minority Leader[38]
- Rick Trombly, executive director of NEA-New Hampshire and former state senator[34]
- David Watters, state senator[34]
- Katie Wheeler, former state senator[34]
- Jeff Woodburn, New Hampshire Senate Minority Leader[36]
Individuals
- Misha Collins, actor and former White House intern[39]
- Kathy Sullivan, former chairperson of the New Hampshire Democratic Party[36]
Labor unions
- American Federation of Teachers-New Hampshire[40]
- International Brotherhood of Teamsters Local 633[41]
- National Education Association – New Hampshire Affiliate[42]
- New Hampshire AFL-CIO[43]
- State Employees' Association of New Hampshire/Service Employees International Union Local 1984[44]
Organizations
Chris Sununu (R)
Individuals
- Chris Christie, former governor of New Jersey[48]
- Mike Pence, Vice President of the United States[49]
Organizations
- International Brotherhood of Electrical Workers Local 104[50]
- National Federation of Independent Business[51]
- New Hampshire Police Association[52]
- New Hampshire Troopers Association[53]
- Professional Fire Fighters of New Hampshire[54]
Newspapers
Polling
View source data.
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Chris Sununu (R) |
Molly Kelly (D) |
Jilletta Jarvis (L) |
Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| University of New Hampshire[59] | November 1–4, 2018 | 630 | ± 3.9% | 46% | 46% | 2% | 0% | 6% |
| Change Research (D-NH Democratic Party)[60] | October 27–29, 2018 | 901 | – | 47% | 46% | – | – | – |
| Emerson College[61] | October 27–29, 2018 | 1,139 | ± 3.7% | 51% | 43% | 1% | – | 5% |
| University of New Hampshire[62] | October 10–18, 2018 | 499 | ± 4.4% | 50% | 39% | 4% | – | 7% |
| Saint Anselm College[63] | October 10–15, 2018 | 454 | ± 4.6% | 49% | 39% | 1% | 0% | 12% |
| Emerson College[64] | October 10–12, 2018 | 625 | ± 4.2% | 51% | 35% | 1% | – | 14% |
| American Research Group[65] | September 21–26, 2018 | 800 | ± 3.5% | 49% | 44% | – | 0% | 7% |
| University of New Hampshire[66] | August 2–19, 2018 | 389 | ± 5.0% | 48% | 32% | – | 5% | 16% |
| Suffolk University[67] | April 26–30, 2018 | 800 | ± 3.5% | 48% | 27% | 4% | – | 21% |
| University of New Hampshire[68] | April 13–22, 2018 | 379 | ± 5.0% | 51% | 24% | 2% | 4% | 20% |
Hypothetical polling
with Steve Marchand
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Chris Sununu (R) |
Steve Marchand (D) |
Jilletta Jarvis (L) |
Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| University of New Hampshire[66] | August 2–19, 2018 | 389 | ± 5.0% | 48% | 33% | – | 4% | 15% |
| Suffolk University[69] | April 26–30, 2018 | 800 | ± 3.5% | 49% | 25% | 4% | – | 21% |
| University of New Hampshire[68] | April 13–22, 2018 | 379 | ± 5.0% | 49% | 24% | 2% | 2% | 20% |
| University of New Hampshire[70] | January 28 – February 10, 2018 | 381 | ± 5.0% | 42% | 28% | – | – | 30% |
with Chris Sununu and generic Democrat
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Chris Sununu (R) |
Generic Democrat |
Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Praecones Analytica[71] | August 13–15, 2018 | 626 | ± 3.9% | 47% | 33% | 20% |
with generic Republican and Democrat
with Mark Connolly
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Chris Sununu (R) |
Mark Connolly (D) |
Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| University of New Hampshire[70] | January 28 – February 10, 2018 | 381 | ± 5.0% | 41% | 29% | – | 30% |
with Sununu and Van Ostern
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Chris Sununu (R) |
Colin Van Ostern (D) |
Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| University of New Hampshire[70] | January 28 – February 10, 2018 | 381 | ± 5.0% | 41% | 31% | 28% |
Results
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | ±% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Republican | Chris Sununu (incumbent) | 302,764 | 52.78% | +3.94% | |
| Democratic | Molly Kelly | 262,359 | 45.74% | −0.83% | |
| Libertarian | Jilletta Jarvis | 8,197 | 1.43% | −2.88% | |
| Write-in | 282 | 0.05% | -0.23% | ||
| Total votes | 573,602 | 100.00% | N/A | ||
| Republican hold | |||||
By county
| 2018 Gubernatorial election results in New Hampshire (by county) [73] | |||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| County | Molly Kelly Democratic |
Chris Sununu Republican |
Other votes | Margin | Total votes | ||||
| # | % | # | % | # | % | # | % | # | |
| Belknap | 9,690 | 36.00% | 16,856 | 62.62% | 374 | 1.39% | 7,166 | 26.62% | 26,920 |
| Carroll | 10,432 | 43.46% | 13,308 | 55.44% | 265 | 1.10% | 2,876 | 11.98% | 24,005 |
| Cheshire | 18,158 | 55.80% | 13,875 | 42.64% | 509 | 1.56% | -4,283 | -13.16% | 32,542 |
| Coös | 4,988 | 42.96% | 6,397 | 55.10% | 225 | 1.94% | 1,409 | 12.14% | 11,610 |
| Grafton | 22,932 | 56.89% | 16,734 | 41.52% | 642 | 1.59% | -6,198 | -15.37% | 40,308 |
| Hillsborough | 72,033 | 44.34% | 87,846 | 54.07% | 2,589 | 1.59% | 15,813 | 9.73% | 162,468 |
| Merrimack | 30,540 | 46.97% | 33,513 | 51.54% | 972 | 1.49% | 2,973 | 4.57% | 65,025 |
| Rockingham | 59,269 | 42.29% | 79,195 | 56.50% | 1,699 | 1.21% | 19,926 | 14.21% | 140,163 |
| Strafford | 26,593 | 49.89% | 25,782 | 48.37% | 931 | 1.75% | -811 | -1.52% | 53,306 |
| Sullivan | 7,724 | 44.76% | 9,258 | 53.65% | 273 | 1.58% | 1,534 | 8.89% | 17,255 |
Counties that flipped from Democratic to Republican
By congressional district
Sununu won both congressional districts, which simultaneously elected Democrats.[74]
| District | Sununu | Kelly | Representative |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1st | 55% | 44% | Chris Pappas |
| 2nd | 51% | 48% | Annie Kuster |