2016 United States Senate election in Idaho
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The 2016 United States Senate election in Idaho was held November 8, 2016, to elect a member of the United States Senate to represent the State of Idaho, concurrently with the 2016 U.S. presidential election, as well as other elections to the United States Senate in other states and elections to the United States House of Representatives and various state and local elections. The primaries were held May 17.
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November 8, 2016
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   Crapo: 40–50% 50–60% 60–70% 70–80% 80–90% >90% Sturgill: 40–50% 50–60% 60–70% 70–80% No data | |||||||||||||||||||||
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Incumbent Republican Senator Mike Crapo won re-election to a fourth term in office.[1]
Republican primary
Candidates
Declared
- Mike Crapo, incumbent U.S. Senator[2]
Declined
- Russ Fulcher, former state senator and candidate for governor in 2014[3][4]
- Raúl Labrador, U.S. Representative[5]
- Mike Simpson, U.S. Representative
Results
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Republican | Mike Crapo (incumbent) | 119,633 | 100.00% | |
| Total votes | 119,633 | 100.00% | ||
Democratic primary
Candidates
Declared
- Jerry Sturgill, businessman[7]
Declined
- Richard H. Stallings, former U.S. Representative, former chairman of the Idaho Democratic Party and nominee for U.S. Senate in 1992[8]
- Larry LaRocco, former U.S. Representative, nominee for lieutenant governor in 2006 and nominee for U.S. Senate in 2008[3]
- Walt Minnick, former U.S. Representative and nominee for U.S. Senate in 1996[3]
Results
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Democratic | Jerry Sturgill | 26,471 | 100.00% | |
| Total votes | 26,471 | 100.00% | ||
Third Party and Independent Candidates
Constitution Party
Declared
Results
Writz
- Writz—100%
- Writz—80–90%
- Writz—70–80%
- Writz—60–70%
- Writz—50–60%
Writz/Pro-Life tie
- Writz & Pro-Life tie—50%
Pro-Life
- Pro-Life—50–60%
- Pro-Life—60–70%
- Pro-Life—100%
No votes
- No votes
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Constitution | Ray J. Writz | 131 | 59.5% | |
| Constitution | Pro-Life | 89 | 40.5% | |
| Total votes | 220 | 100.0% | ||
Independents
General election
Debates
Polling
View source data.
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Mike Crapo (R) |
Jerry Sturgill (D) |
Ray Writz (C) |
Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SurveyMonkey[14] | November 1–7, 2016 | 612 | ± 4.6% | 58% | 39% | — | — | 3% |
| SurveyMonkey[15] | October 31–November 6, 2016 | 557 | ± 4.6% | 58% | 36% | — | — | 4% |
| SurveyMonkey[16] | October 28–November 3, 2016 | 498 | ± 4.6% | 61% | 35% | — | — | 4% |
| SurveyMonkey[17] | October 27–November 2, 2016 | 442 | ± 4.6% | 60% | 34% | — | — | 6% |
| SurveyMonkey[18] | October 26–November 1, 2016 | 394 | ± 4.6% | 61% | 32% | — | — | 7% |
| SurveyMonkey[19] | October 25–31, 2016 | 447 | ± 4.6% | 61% | 34% | — | — | 5% |
| Emerson College[20] | October 21–23, 2016 | 1,023 | ± 3.0% | 57% | 24% | — | 12% | 7% |
| Dan Jones & Associates[21] | August 18–31, 2016 | 602 | ± 4.0% | 57% | 20% | 4% | 4% | 15% |
| Dan Jones & Associates[22] | July 5–16, 2016 | 601 | ± 4.0% | 57% | 20% | 4% | 4% | 15% |
| Lake Research Partners[23] | July 5–10, 2016 | 500 | ± 4.4% | 37% | 35% | 2% | — | 25% |
| Dan Jones & Associates[24] | May 18–June 4, 2016 | 603 | ± 4.0% | 48% | 25% | 7% | 9% | 10% |
| Dan Jones & Associates[25] | April 8–19, 2016 | 603 | ± 4.0% | 53% | 17% | 5% | 5% | 20% |
Predictions
| Source | Ranking | As of |
|---|---|---|
| The Cook Political Report[26] | Safe R | November 2, 2016 |
| Sabato's Crystal Ball[27] | Safe R | November 7, 2016 |
| Rothenberg Political Report[28] | Safe R | November 3, 2016 |
| Daily Kos[29] | Safe R | November 8, 2016 |
| Real Clear Politics[30] | Safe R | November 7, 2016 |
Results
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | ±% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Republican | Mike Crapo (incumbent) | 449,017 | 66.13% | −5.06% | |
| Democratic | Jerry Sturgill | 188,249 | 27.73% | +2.80% | |
| Constitution | Ray J. Writz | 41,677 | 6.14% | +2.26% | |
| Majority | 260,768 | 38.41% | −7.84% | ||
| Total votes | 678,943 | 100.0% | N/A | ||
| Republican hold | |||||
Counties that flipped from Republican to Democratic
By congressional district
Crapo won both congressional districts.[32]
| District | Crapo | Sturgill | Representative |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1st | 69% | 25% | Raúl Labrador |
| 2nd | 63% | 30% | Mike Simpson |