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2016 United States Senate election in Indiana

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The 2016 United States Senate election in Indiana was held on November 8, 2016, to elect a member of the United States Senate to represent the State of Indiana. The election was held alongside the presidential election and 2016 Indiana elections.

Quick facts Nominee, Party ...
2016 United States Senate election in Indiana

 2010
November 8, 2016
2022 
 
Nominee Todd Young Evan Bayh
(replacing Baron Hill)
Lucy Brenton
Party Republican Democratic Libertarian
Popular vote 1,423,991 1,158,974 149,481
Percentage 52.11% 42.41% 5.47%

Young:      40–50%      50–60%      60–70%      70–80%      80–90%      >90%
Bayh:      40–50%      50–60%      60–70%      70–80%      80–90%      >90%
Tie:      40–50%      50%      No data

U.S. senator before election

Dan Coats
Republican

Elected U.S. Senator

Todd Young
Republican

Close

Republican incumbent Dan Coats, who had served in the Senate since 2011 and previously from 1989 to 1999, ultimately chose to not seek reelection.[1] U.S. Representative Todd Young won the May 3 Republican primary to succeed him, with former U.S. Representative Baron Hill winning the Democratic nomination. However, Hill withdrew from the race on July 11, with former senator Evan Bayh entering the race to regain the seat, which he held from 1999 to 2011.

The Indiana Democratic Party formally chose Bayh as Hill's replacement on July 22. Following his entry, Bayh was initially seen as the frontrunner in the race. However, during the campaign, he faced heavy criticism over his post-Senate career as a lobbyist, as well as questions about his residency in the state. Young ultimately won by a comfortable margin, defeating Bayh in the general election by 10 points.[2]

Background

Republican Senator Dan Coats, who had served in the Senate since 2011, and previously from 1989 to 1999, stated that he planned to run for re-election,[3][4] but in March 2014 his chief of staff said that Coats had "decided not to decide whether to run again until after the [2014] midterm elections".[5]

On March 24, 2015, Coats announced that he would not run for re-election, citing that he would be of advanced age (just under 80 years old) by the end of the 2017–2023 term, should he complete it.[1]

Republican primary

Candidates

Declared

Withdrawn

Declined

Endorsements

Polling

More information Poll source, Date(s) administered ...
Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
Todd
Young
Marlin
Stutzman
Undecided
NBC/WSJ/Marist[28] April 26–28, 2016 645 ± 3.9% 56% 24% 20%
IPFW/Downs Center[29] April 13–27, 2016 400 ± 4.9% 42% 34% 24%
WTHR/Howey[30] April 18–21, 2016 507 ± 4.0% 43% 31% 26%
Close

Results

Results by county:
  Young—80–90%
  Young—70–80%
  Young—60–70%
  Young—50–60%
  Stutzman—50–60%
  Stutzman—60–70%
  Stutzman—70–80%
More information Party, Candidate ...
Republican primary results[31]
Party Candidate Votes %
Republican Todd Young 661,136 67.0%
Republican Marlin Stutzman 324,429 33.0%
Total votes 985,565 100.0%
Close

Democratic primary

Candidates

Declared

  • Baron Hill, former U.S. representative and nominee for U.S. Senate in 1990 (withdrew after winning primary)

Withdrawn

  • John Dickerson, former nonprofit organization director[32][33]

Declined

Endorsements

Baron Hill

Individuals

Organizations

Results

More information Party, Candidate ...
Democratic primary results[31]
Party Candidate Votes %
Democratic Baron Hill 516,183 100.00%
Total votes 516,183 100.00%
Close

Democratic State Central Committee selection

On July 11, 2016, CNN's Tom LoBianco announced that Bayh would enter the race to regain his old Senate seat and Hill would drop out and withdraw his name from the November ballot.[44] Hill soon released a statement formally dropping out of the race, saying he did not "...want to stand in the way of Democrats winning Indiana and the U.S. Senate. That would not be fair to my party or my state. And, the stakes are far too high in this election not to put my country above my own political ambitions,"[45] without explicitly endorsing Bayh.[45] The first candidate to declare was Bob Kern, a frequent candidate for Congress in various districts around the state.[46] Bayh officially declared for the race July 13.[47] The Indiana Democratic Party's State Central Committee chose Bayh as Hill's replacement, for the general election.[45]

Candidates

General election

Candidates

Debates

More information Dates, Location ...
Dates Location Young Bayh Brenton Link
October 18, 2016 Indianapolis, Indiana Participant Participant Participant [48]
Close

Endorsements

Evan Bayh

U.S. cabinet members and cabinet-level officials

Mayors

Organizations

Labor unions

Newspapers

Predictions

More information Source, Ranking ...
Source Ranking As of
The Cook Political Report[67] Tossup November 2, 2016
Sabato's Crystal Ball[68] Lean R November 7, 2016
Rothenberg Political Report[69] Tossup November 3, 2016
Daily Kos[70] Tossup November 8, 2016
Real Clear Politics[71] Tossup November 7, 2016
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Polling

%support01020304050607/14/20189/21/201810/30/201811/7/2018BayhYoungBrentonUndecidedOpinion polling for the 2016 United States S...
More information Poll source, Date(s) administered ...
Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
Todd
Young (R)
Evan
Bayh (D)
Lucy
Brenton (L)
Undecided
SurveyMonkey[72] November 1–7, 2016 1,700 ± 4.6% 53% 42% 5%
SurveyMonkey[73] Oct 31–Nov 6, 2016 1,383 ± 4.6% 52% 43% 5%
WTHR/Howey[74] November 1–3, 2016 600 ± 4.0% 46% 41% 6% 7%
SurveyMonkey[75] Oct 28–Nov 3, 2016 923 ± 4.6% 52% 43% 5%
SurveyMonkey[76] Oct 27–Nov 2, 2016 790 ± 4.6% 51% 44% 5%
Gravis Marketing[77] Oct 30–Nov 1, 2016 399 ± 4.9% 37% 40% 7% 16%
SurveyMonkey[78] Oct 26–Nov 1, 2016 638 ± 4.6% 51% 46% 3%
SurveyMonkey[79] October 25–31, 2016 674 ± 4.6% 50% 46% 4%
Monmouth University[80] October 27–30, 2016 402 ± 4.9% 45% 45% 4% 5%
Gravis Marketing[81] October 22–24, 2016 596 ± 2.3% 37% 39% 7% 17%
WISH/Ball State Hoosier Survey[82] October 10–16, 2016 544 ± 3.9% 43% 49% 6%
Monmouth University[83] October 11–13, 2016 402 ± 4.9% 42% 48% 6% 4%
Public Opinion Strategies (R-Young)[84] October 9–11, 2016 609 ± 4.0% 40% 39% 8% 13%
The Times-Picayune/Lucid[85] October 7–10, 2016 1,123 ± 3.0% 43% 46% 11%
WTHR/Howey[86] October 3–5, 2016 600 ± 4.0% 41% 42% 8% 9%
Public Opinion Strategies (R-Young)[84] October 3, 2016[87] 38% 42% 7% 13%
Public Opinion Strategies (R-Young)[84] September 21, 2016[87] 39% 44% 9% 8%
WTHR/Howey[88] September 6–8, 2016 600 ± 4.0% 40% 44% 5% 11%
Public Opinion Strategies (R-Young)[84] September 1, 2016[87] 35% 44% 6% 15%
Garin-Hart-Yang (D-Bayh)[89] August 15–18, 2016 801 ± 3.5% 39% 55% 6%
Monmouth University[90] August 13–16, 2016 403 ± 4.9% 41% 48% 4% 7%
Global Strategy Group (D-SMP)[91] August 10–14, 2016 801 ± 3.5% 36% 54% 10%
Public Opinion Strategies (R-Young)[84] August 8, 2016[87] 35% 48% 7% 10%
Expedition Strategies (R-Gregg)[92] August 1–3, 2016 600 ± 4.0% 32% 58% 9%
Garin-Hart-Yang (D-DSCC)[93] July 12–14, 2016 602 ± 4.1% 33% 54% 13%
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Hypothetical polling

with Baron Hill

More information Poll source, Date(s) administered ...
Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
Todd
Young (R)
Baron
Hill (D)
Undecided
Bellwether Research[94] May 11–15, 2016 600 ± 4.0% 36% 22% 30%
WTHR/Howey[30] April 18–21, 2016 500 ± 4.3% 48% 30% 22%
Close

with Marlin Stutzman

More information Poll source, Date(s) administered ...
Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
Marlin
Stutzman (R)
Baron
Hill (D)
Undecided
WTHR/Howey[30] April 18–21, 2016 500 ± 4.0% 39% 36% 25%
Close

Results

More information Party, Candidate ...
United States Senate election in Indiana, 2016 [95]
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
Republican Todd Young 1,423,991 52.11% −2.47%
Democratic Evan Bayh 1,158,947 42.41% +2.41%
Libertarian Lucy Brenton 149,481 5.47% +0.06%
Independent James L. Johnson, Jr. (write-in) 127 0.01% N/A
Total votes 2,732,546 100.00% N/A
Republican hold
Close

Results by county

More information County, Todd Young Republican ...
County[95] Todd Young
Republican
Evan Bayh
Democratic
Lucy Brenton
Libertarian
Write-ins Margin Total
Votes % Votes % Votes % Votes % Votes %
Adams 8,430 64.2% 3,840 29.2% 866 6.6% 0 0.0% 4,590 35.0% 13,136
Allen 79,370 53.7% 59,868 40.5% 8,503 5.8% 3 0.0% 19,502 13.2% 147,744
Bartholomew 19,050 59.1% 11,355 35.2% 1,839 5.7% 0 0.0% 7,695 23.9% 32,244
Benton 2,316 62.7% 1,132 30.6% 246 6.7% 0 0.0% 1,184 32.1% 3,694
Blackford 2,748 57.0% 1,707 35.4% 365 7.6% 0 0.0% 1,041 21.6% 4,820
Boone 19,966 61.9% 10,583 32.8% 1,715 5.3% 0 0.0% 9,383 29.1% 32,264
Brown 4,616 57.8% 2,907 36.4% 462 5.8% 0 0.0% 1,709 21.4% 7,985
Carroll 5,512 63.5% 2,522 29.0% 648 7.5% 0 0.0% 2,990 34.5% 8,682
Cass 8,306 58.3% 4,927 34.6% 1,013 7.1% 0 0.0% 3,379 23.7% 14,246
Clark 27,684 54.2% 21,414 41.9% 1,995 3.9% 0 0.0% 6,270 12.3% 51,093
Clay 6,439 57.9% 3,979 35.8% 697 6.3% 0 0.0% 2,460 22.1% 11,115
Clinton 7,291 62.2% 3,693 31.5% 740 6.3% 0 0.0% 3,598 30.7% 11,724
Crawford 2,500 54.8% 1,890 41.5% 169 3.7% 0 0.0% 610 13.3% 4,559
Daviess 7,096 66.5% 3,131 29.3% 450 4.2% 0 0.0% 3,965 37.2% 10,677
Dearborn 17,288 73.6% 5,251 22.4% 953 4.1% 0 0.1% 12,037 51.2% 23,492
Decatur 7,301 66.8% 3,022 27.7% 603 5.5% 0 0.0% 4,279 39.1% 10,926
DeKalb 10,229 61.4% 5,029 30.2% 1,413 8.5% 0 0.0% 5,200 31.2% 16,671
Delaware 21,557 48.0% 20,578 45.8% 2,744 6.1% 4 0.1% 979 2.2% 44,883
Dubois 11,029 56.0% 7,692 39.1% 962 4.9% 0 0.0% 3,337 16.9% 19,683
Elkhart 39,291 59.4% 23,416 35.4% 3,398 5.1% 1 0.0% 15,875 24.0% 66,106
Fayette 5,602 59.7% 3,170 33.8% 609 6.5% 0 0.0% 2,432 25.9% 9,381
Floyd 20,735 55.2% 15,504 41.2% 1,349 3.6% 0 0.0% 5,231 14.0% 37,588
Fountain 4,982 66.4% 2,071 27.6% 449 6.0% 0 0.0% 2,911 38.8% 7,502
Franklin 7,926 72.6% 2,625 24.1% 359 3.3% 0 0.0% 5,301 48.5% 10,910
Fulton 5,076 60.3% 2,793 33.2% 552 6.6% 0 0.0% 2,283 27.1% 8,421
Gibson 9,220 59.4% 5,519 35.6% 776 5.0% 0 0.0% 3,701 23.8% 15,515
Grant 15,280 60.5% 8,345 33.0% 1,640 6.5% 1 0.0% 6,935 27.5% 25,266
Greene 7,866 57.7% 5,062 37.1% 699 5.1% 0 0.0% 2,804 20.6% 13,627
Hamilton 92,773 59.7% 55,708 35.9% 6,801 4.4% 0 0.0% 37,065 23.8% 155,282
Hancock 23,196 63.8% 10,775 29.6% 2,402 6.6% 0 0.0% 12,421 34.2% 36,373
Harrison 11,442 61.5% 6,580 35.4% 580 3.1% 1 0.0% 4,862 26.1% 18,603
Hendricks 46,722 62.3% 24,427 32.6% 3,888 5.1% 1 0.0% 22,295 29.7% 75,038
Henry 11,664 57.9% 6,915 34.3% 1,557 7.7% 0 0.0% 4,749 23.6% 20,136
Howard 20,402 55.0% 14,311 38.6% 2,377 6.3% 31 0.1% 6,091 16.4% 37,121
Huntington 9,941 63.1% 4,545 28.8% 1,280 8.1% 0 0.0% 5,396 34.3% 15,766
Jackson 11,269 64.0% 5,626 31.9% 721 4.1% 0 0.0% 5,643 32.1% 17,616
Jasper 8,556 64.6% 4,106 31.0% 574 4.3% 4 0.0% 4,450 33.6% 13,240
Jay 4,529 57.7% 2,721 34.7% 596 7.6% 0 0.0% 1,808 23.0% 7,846
Jefferson 7,541 56.2% 5,424 40.4% 463 3.4% 0 0.0% 2,117 15.8% 13,428
Jennings 6,949 62.2% 3,702 33.2% 515 4.6% 0 0.0% 3,247 29.0% 11,166
Johnson 43,317 64.7% 19,897 29.7% 3,719 5.5% 49 0.1% 23,420 35.0% 66,982
Knox 7,816 51.7% 6,503 43.0% 810 5.4% 0 0.0% 1,313 8.7% 15,129
Kosciusko 22,188 68.9% 8,025 24.9% 1,981 6.2% 0 0.0% 14,163 44.0% 32,194
LaGrange 6,222 64.7% 2,782 28.9% 618 6.4% 0 0.0% 3,440 35.8% 9,622
Lake 67,657 34.3% 122,036 61.9% 7,538 3.8% 1 0.0% -54,379 -27.6% 197,232
LaPorte 19,733 43.9% 22,401 49.9% 2,766 6.2% 0 0.0% -2,668 -6.0% 44,900
Lawrence 12,327 65.5% 5,493 29.2% 1,007 5.3% 0 0.0% 6,834 36.3% 18,827
Madison 28,057 52.0% 22,188 41.1% 3,689 6.8% 0 0.0% 5,869 10.9% 53,934
Marion 131,576 36.0% 213,483 58.5% 20,141 5.5% 0 0.0% -81,907 -22.5% 365,206
Marshall 10,659 59.4% 6,223 34.7% 1,059 5.9% 0 0.0% 4,436 24.7% 17,941
Martin 2,934 61.3% 1,595 33.3% 261 5.4% 0 0.0% 1,339 28.0% 4,790
Miami 8,453 63.6% 3,836 28.9% 1,007 7.6% 0 0.0% 4,617 34.7% 13,296
Monroe 21,049 35.8% 34,241 58.3% 3,478 5.9% 0 0.0% -13,192 -22.5% 58,768
Montgomery 9,808 64.6% 4,393 28.9% 976 6.4% 0 0.0% 5,415 35.7% 15,177
Morgan 21,193 68.3% 7,821 25.2% 2,011 6.5% 12 0.0% 13,372 43.1% 31,037
Newton 3,670 63.6% 1,788 31.0% 313 5.4% 0 0.0% 1,882 32.6% 5,771
Noble 10,509 62.8% 4,996 29.9% 1,217 7.3% 0 0.0% 5,513 32.9% 16,722
Ohio 1,948 67.3% 853 29.5% 95 3.3% 0 0.0% 1,095 37.8% 2,896
Orange 5,134 62.5% 2,795 34.0% 291 3.5% 0 0.0% 2,339 28.5% 8,220
Owen 5,333 62.5% 2,642 31.0% 557 6.5% 0 0.0% 2,691 31.5% 8,532
Parke 3,859 58.2% 2,339 35.3% 435 6.6% 0 0.0% 1,520 22.9% 6,633
Perry 3,612 45.2% 3,990 49.9% 388 4.9% 0 0.0% -378 -4.7% 7,990
Pike 3,404 57.2% 2,228 37.5% 314 5.3% 0 0.0% 1,176 19.7% 5,946
Porter 35,629 46.4% 36,828 48.0% 4,266 5.6% 0 0.0% -1,199 -1.6% 76,723
Posey 7,058 56.4% 4,857 38.8% 597 4.8% 0 0.0% 2,201 17.6% 12,512
Pulaski 3,109 58.2% 1,859 34.8% 372 7.0% 0 0.0% 1,250 23.4% 5,340
Putnam 9,510 64.7% 4,319 29.4% 861 5.9% 0 0.0% 5,191 35.3% 14,690
Randolph 6,411 62.5% 3,230 31.5% 614 6.0% 0 0.0% 3,181 31.0% 10,255
Ripley 9,227 71.7% 3,182 24.7% 464 3.6% 0 0.0% 6,045 47.0% 12,873
Rush 4,472 62.5% 2,238 31.3% 441 6.2% 0 0.0% 2,234 31.2% 7,151
Scott 5,046 55.5% 3,763 41.4% 288 3.2% 0 0.0% 1,283 14.1% 9,097
Shelby 11,267 62.8% 5,549 30.9% 1,113 6.2% 0 0.0% 5,718 31.9% 17,929
Spencer 5,465 55.3% 3,960 40.1% 458 4.6% 0 0.0% 1,505 15.2% 9,883
St. Joseph 47,353 42.7% 56,749 51.2% 6,782 6.1% 0 0.0% -9,396 -8.5% 110,884
Starke 4,895 54.2% 3,443 38.1% 699 7.7% 0 0.0% 1,452 16.1% 9,037
Steuben 9,078 62.0% 4,546 31.0% 1,017 6.9% 0 0.0% 4,532 31.0% 14,641
Sullivan 4,164 49.3% 3,856 45.6% 429 5.1% 0 0.0% 308 3.7% 8,449
Switzerland 2,260 62.1% 1,242 34.1% 139 3.8% 0 0.0% 1,018 28.0% 3,641
Tippecanoe 30,081 47.7% 28,921 45.9% 4,013 6.4% 1 0.0% 1,160 1.8% 63,016
Tipton 4,760 63.3% 2,260 30.1% 496 6.6% 3 0.0% 2,500 33.2% 7,519
Union 2,252 68.5% 901 27.4% 136 4.1% 0 0.0% 1,351 41.1% 3,289
Vanderburgh 36,835 50.7% 32,077 44.1% 3,787 5.2% 0 0.0% 4,758 6.6% 72,699
Vermillion 3,247 47.1% 3,197 46.3% 455 6.6% 0 0.0% 50 0.8% 6,899
Vigo 15,681 41.6% 21,028 52.8% 2,227 5.6% 2 0.0% -4,447 -11.2% 39,838
Wabash 8,595 64.3% 3,925 29.4% 848 6.3% 0 0.0% 4,670 34.9% 13,368
Warren 2,589 65.4% 1,159 29.3% 211 5.3% 0 0.0% 1,430 36.1% 3,959
Warrick 17,255 58.2% 11,092 37.4% 1,302 4.4% 7 0.0% 6,163 20.8% 29,656
Washington 7,197 63.3% 3,773 33.2% 405 3.6% 0 0.0% 3,424 30.1% 11,375
Wayne 14,703 57.2% 9,309 36.2% 1,678 6.5% 0 0.0% 5,394 21.0% 25,690
Wells 8,811 66.9% 3,516 26.7% 836 6.4% 0 0.0% 5,295 40.2% 13,163
White 6,128 60.8% 3,255 32.3% 700 6.9% 0 0.0% 2,873 28.5% 10,083
Whitley 9,865 63.3% 4,500 28.9% 1,208 7.8% 0 0.0% 5,365 34.4% 15,573
TOTAL 1,423,991 52.1% 1,158,947 42.4% 149,481 5.5% 127 0.0% 265,044 9.7% 2,732,546
Close

Counties that flipped from Republican to Democratic

Counties that flipped from Democratic to Republican

By congressional district

Young won seven of nine congressional districts.[96]

More information District, Young ...
District Young Bayh Representative
1st 38% 58% Pete Visclosky
2nd 53% 41% Jackie Walorski
3rd 59% 35% Marlin Stutzman
4th 59% 35% Todd Rokita
5th 53% 42% Susan Brooks
6th 61% 34% Luke Messer
7th 35% 59% André Carson
8th 53% 42% Larry Bucshon
9th 56% 39% Todd Young
Close

References

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