2018 New Mexico gubernatorial election
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The 2018 New Mexico gubernatorial election took place on November 6, 2018, to elect the next governor of New Mexico, concurrently with the election of New Mexico's Class I U.S. Senate seat, as well as other elections to the United States Senate in other states, elections to the United States House of Representatives and various local elections. This was one of eight Republican-held governorships up for election in a state carried by Hillary Clinton in the 2016 presidential election.
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November 6, 2018
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   Lujan Grisham: 50–60% 60–70% 70–80% 80–90% >90% Pearce: 50–60% 60–70% 70–80% 80–90% >90% Tie: 50% No data | ||||||||||||||||||||
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Incumbent Republican Governor Susana Martinez was term-limited and could not seek a third consecutive term. Following party primaries on June 5, 2018, U.S. Representative Steve Pearce was the Republican nominee and U.S. Representative Michelle Lujan Grisham was the Democratic nominee. Lujan Grisham won the election by a substantial margin, which in fact was a complete and exact reversal of the 2014 gubernatorial results. Her win also signaled a continuation of the pattern of the partisanship of the office changing every two terms, beginning with Gary Johnson's first election in 1994. Furthermore, the pattern of the partisanship changing with each officeholder was continued, a pattern first started after Toney Anaya left office in 1987. Furthermore, the margin between the candidates (57.2% to 42.8%) was the same as the previous election, albeit with the parties switched.
Background
At the presidential level, New Mexico has begun to trend into a Democratic-leaning swing state. It has gone Democratic in all but one presidential election since 1992. The only break in this trend came in 2004, when George W. Bush won it by less than a point. However, in 2008, Barack Obama won the state over John McCain by 15 points and in 2012 by 10 points over Mitt Romney. In 2016, Democrat Hillary Clinton defeated Republican Donald Trump by eight points.
However, in 2010, then-District Attorney of New Mexico's Third Judicial District Susana Martinez won the election, becoming the first US Latina Governor, over Lieutenant Governor Diane Denish, former running mate of two-term Democrat Bill Richardson, by approximately seven points. In 2014, Martinez was re-elected over state Attorney General Gary King by nearly 15 points. It has been described as one of the Democrats' best chances at a pickup, due to Gov. Martinez's unpopularity and because "she's leaving behind a high unemployment rate and struggling education system."[1]
The 2018 primary election results show 116,311 votes for Democratic candidate Michelle Lujan Grisham and a total of 175,182 for all three Democratic candidates while Republican candidate/nominee Steve Pearce received 74,705; note that 23% of New Mexico's registered voters are third party or independents (280,000), who do not vote in the primary election.
Republican primary
Governor
Candidates
Nominated
- Steve Pearce, U.S. Representative, candidate for the U.S. Senate in 2000 and nominee for the U.S. Senate in 2008[2]
Declined
- Aubrey Dunn Jr., New Mexico Commissioner of Public Lands and candidate for NM-02 in 2008[3][4][5]
- John Sanchez, lieutenant governor and nominee for governor of New Mexico in 2002[6][7]
Results
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Republican | Steve Pearce | 75,162 | 100.00% | |
| Total votes | 75,162 | 100.00% | ||
Lieutenant governor
Candidates
Declared
- Michelle Garcia Holmes, former chief of staff to Attorney General Gary King, former police detective and candidate for mayor of Albuquerque in 2017[9]
Withdrew
Declined
- Ted Barela, former state senator[12]
- Mark Moores, state senator[12]
- Cliff Pirtle, state senator[12]
Results
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Republican | Michelle Garcia Holmes | 67,681 | 100.00% | |
| Total votes | 67,681 | 100.00% | ||
Democratic primary
Governor
Candidates
Nominated
- Michelle Lujan Grisham, U.S. Representative[13]
Eliminated in primary
- Jeff Apodaca, businessman and son of former governor Jerry Apodaca[14][15]
- Joe Cervantes, state senator[16]
Declined
- Hector Balderas, Attorney General (running for re-election)[17]
- Javier Gonzales, former mayor of Santa Fe (running for lieutenant governor)[18][19][6][20]
- Martin Heinrich, U.S. senator (running for reelection)[21]
- Tim Keller, mayor of Albuquerque and former State Auditor[22][23][24]
- Ben Ray Luján, U.S. Representative[21]
- Tom Udall, U.S. Senator[25][26]
- Alan Webber, mayor of Santa Fe and candidate for governor in 2014[27][28]
Endorsements
Jeff Apodaca
- Local and state politicians
- Guadalupe Cano, Silver City Town Councilor[29]
- Marco Lucero, Los Alamos County Sheriff[30]
- Individuals
- Sam Donaldson, retired news anchor, serving with ABC News 1967–2013[31]
- Lilly Ledbetter, namesake of the Lilly Ledbetter Fair Pay Act of 2009[32]
- Mary Molina Mescall, former executive director of the New Mexico Commission on the Status of Women[33]
- Frances Ray, former president of the Democratic Women of Bernalillo County[34]
Polling
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[a] |
Margin of error |
Jeff Apodaca |
Joe Cervantes |
Michelle Lujan Grisham |
Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Research & Polling, Inc.[35] | May 20–24, 2018 | 444 (LV) | ± 4.6% | 15% | 9% | 57% | – | 19% |
| GQR Research (D)[36][A] | February 14–19, 2018 | 400 (LV) | ± 4.9% | 13% | 6% | 72% | 2%[b] | 6% |
| GQR Research (D)[37][B] | October 12–18, 2017 | 446 (LV) | ± 4.6% | 10% | 3% | 75% | 2%[b] | 10% |
Results
Lujan Grisham—70–80%
Lujan Grisham—60–70%
Lujan Grisham—50–60%
Lujan Grisham—40–50%
Apodaca—40–50%
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Democratic | Michelle Lujan Grisham | 116,754 | 66.38% | |
| Democratic | Jeff Apodaca | 38,975 | 22.16% | |
| Democratic | Joe Cervantes | 20,169 | 11.47% | |
| Total votes | 175,898 | 100.00% | ||
Lieutenant governor
Candidates
Declared
- Billy Garrett, Doña Ana County Commissioner[38]
- Rick Miera, former Majority Leader of the New Mexico House of Representatives[39]
- Howie Morales, state senator and candidate for governor in 2014[40]
Withdrew
Declined
- Brian Colón, former chairman of the Democratic Party of New Mexico, nominee for lieutenant governor in 2010 and candidate for mayor of Albuquerque in 2017 (running for State Auditor)[40]
- Bill O'Neill, state senator[45]
Results
Morales—80–90%
Morales—70–80%
Morales—60–70%
Morales—50–60%
Morales—40–50%
Morales—30–40%
Miera—40–50%
Garrett—40–50%
Tie–30–40%
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Democratic | Howie Morales | 75,828 | 47.10% | |
| Democratic | Rick Miera | 51,202 | 31.81% | |
| Democratic | Billy Garrett | 33,949 | 21.09% | |
| Total votes | 160,979 | 100.00% | ||
Libertarian primary
Based on the party's voter registration numbers and presidential nominee Gary Johnson's result in 2016, the Libertarian Party holds major-party status in New Mexico.[46] Under New Mexico law, both gubernatorial and lieutenant governor candidates must receive each at least 230 signatures from registered Libertarian voters to formally receive the nomination and be placed on the ballot as the Libertarian nominees. Both Walsh and Dunn failed to meet that requirement and were not on the ballot.[47]
Governor
Candidates
Declared
- Bob Walsh, retired mathematician[48]
Declined
- Aubrey Dunn, Jr., Commissioner of Public Lands[49][50] (ran for the U.S. Senate, but dropped out)
- Gary Johnson, former Republican governor and nominee for president in 2012 and 2016[51][52] (running for the U.S. Senate)[53]
Results
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Libertarian | Bob Walsh (write-in) | 175 | 100.00% | |
| Total votes | 175 | 100.00% | ||
Lieutenant governor
Candidates
Declared
- Robin Dunn, wife of Aubrey Dunn, Jr.[48]
Results
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Libertarian | Robin Dunn (write-in) | 177 | 100.00% | |
| Total votes | 177 | 100.00% | ||
General election
Endorsements
Steve Pearce (R)
- Federal officials
- Mike Pence, vice president of the United States[54]
- Sheriffs[55]
- Louis Burkhard, Valencia County
- Mark Cage, Eddy County
- Ken Christesen, San Juan County
- Ian Fletcher, Catron County
- Gary Gold, San Miguel County (Democratic)
- Glenn Hamilton, Sierra County
- Elva Harvey, De Baca County (Democratic)
- Corey Helton, Lea County
- Benny House, Otero County
- Marco Lucero, Los Alamos County (Democratic)
- Mike Lucero, Guadalupe County (Democratic)
- Tony Mace, Cibola County (Democratic)
- Malin Parker, Roosevelt County
- Russell Shafer, Quay County
- Robert Shepperd, Lincoln County
- Rick Sinclair, Colfax County
- Britt Snyder, Chaves County
- Warren Walter, Hidalgo County
- Wesley Waller, Curry County
- Heath White, Torrance County
- Doug Wood, Sandoval County
- County commissioners
- Glen Duggins, Socorro County[56]
- Individuals
- Jerry Apodaca, former Democratic governor of New Mexico, 1975–1979[57]
- Martin Hicks, mayor of Grants (Democratic)[58]
- Ronna Romney McDaniel, chair of the RNC[59]
- Organizations
- Albuquerque Police Officers Association[60]
- National Rifle Association of America[61]
- Right To Life Committee of New Mexico[62]
- Susan B. Anthony List[63]
- Newspapers
Michelle Lujan Grisham (D)
- Federal officials
- Joe Biden, former vice president of the United States[65]
- Barack Obama, former president of the United States[66]
- U.S senators
- Jeff Bingaman, former U.S. Senator (D-NM)[67]
- Martin Heinrich, U.S. Senator (D-NM)[68]
- Elizabeth Warren, U.S. Senator (D-MA)[69]
- U.S. representatives
- Gwen Graham, former U.S. Representative[70]
- Local and state politicians
- Eliseo Lee Alcon, state representative[71]
- Deborah Armstrong, state representative[71]
- Hector Balderas, Attorney General of New Mexico[72]
- Patricia Roybal Caballero, state representative[71]
- Jacob Candelaria, state senator[71]
- Gail Chasey, state representative[71]
- Carlos Cisneros, state senator[71]
- George Dodge Jr., state representative[71]
- Daymon Ely, state representative[71]
- Harry Garcia, state representative[71]
- Miguel Garcia, state representative[71]
- Deb Haaland, former chair of the New Mexico Democratic Party[73]
- Jay Inslee, governor of Washington[74]
- Timothy Jennings, former State Senate President Pro-Tempore[71]
- D. Wonda Johnson, state representative[71]
- Tim Keller, mayor of Albuquerque[75]
- Derrick Lente, state representative[71]
- Georgene Louis, state representative[71]
- Anthony "Moe" Maestas, state representative[71]
- Javier Martínez, state representative[71]
- Cisco McSorley, state senator[71]
- John Pinto, state senator[71]
- Stephanie Garcia Richard, state representative[71]
- Nancy Rodriguez, state senator[71]
- Angelica Rubio, state representative[71]
- Nick Salazar, state representative[71]
- Michael S. Sanchez, former State Senate Majority Leader[71]
- Debra Sariñana, state representative[71]
- William Soules, state senator[71]
- Liz Stefanics, state senator[71]
- Bill Tallman, state senator[71]
- Christine Trujillo, state representative[71]
- Jim Trujillo, state representative[71]
- Linda Trujillo, state representative[71]'
- Alan Webber, mayor of Santa Fe and candidate for governor in 2014[28]
- Individuals
- Chelsea Handler, actress[76]
- Alyssa Milano, actress and activist[77]
- Edward L. Romero, former United States Ambassador to Spain and Andorra (1998-2001)[71]
- Kipp Watson, owner of Rio Rancho Road Runners, LLC, which promotes wheelchair basketball[78]
- Cheryl L. Willman, M.D., University of New Mexico School of Medicine Distinguished Professor[71]
- Labor unions
- American Federation of State, County and Municipal Employees Council 18[79]
- American Federation of Teachers - New Mexico[80]
- Bakery, Confectionery, Tobacco Workers and Grain Millers' International Union Local 351[81]
- International Association of Fire Fighters Local 224[82]
- New Mexico Professional Fire Fighters Association[83]
- United Mine Workers of America[84]
- United Steelworkers District 12[85]
- Organizations
- Conservation Voters New Mexico Action Fund[86]
- EMILY's List[87]
- Everytown for Gun Safety[88]
- Latino Victory Fund[89]
- NARAL Pro-Choice America[90]
- Planned Parenthood Action Fund[91]
Debates
- Complete video of debate, September 19, 2018
Predictions
| Source | Ranking | As of |
|---|---|---|
| The Cook Political Report[92] | Lean D (flip) | October 26, 2018 |
| The Washington Post[93] | Lean D (flip) | November 5, 2018 |
| FiveThirtyEight[94] | Likely D (flip) | November 5, 2018 |
| Rothenberg Political Report[95] | Lean D (flip) | November 1, 2018 |
| Sabato's Crystal Ball[96] | Lean D (flip) | November 5, 2018 |
| RealClearPolitics[97] | Lean D (flip) | November 4, 2018 |
| Daily Kos[98] | Lean D (flip) | November 5, 2018 |
| Fox News[99][c] | Lean D (flip) | November 5, 2018 |
| Politico[100] | Likely D (flip) | November 5, 2018 |
| Governing[101] | Lean D (flip) | November 5, 2018 |
Polling
View source data.
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[a] |
Margin of error |
Steve Pearce (R) |
Michelle Lujan Grisham (D) |
Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Research Co.[102] | November 1–3, 2018 | 450 (V) | ± 4.6% | 41% | 53% | 6% |
| Research & Polling, Inc.[103] | October 26 – November 1, 2018 | 993 (LV) | ± 3.1% | 43% | 53% | 4% |
| Carroll Strategies[104] | October 29, 2018 | 1,200 (LV) | ± 2.8% | 45% | 51% | 4% |
| Emerson College[105] | October 24–26, 2018 | 936 (LV) | ± 3.4% | 44% | 53% | 4% |
| GQR Research (D)[106][A] | October 22–26, 2018 | 600 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 44% | 53% | 4% |
| Pacific Market Research[107] | October 19–24, 2018 | 400 (LV) | ± 4.9% | 39% | 48% | 13% |
| NSON Opinion Strategy (L)[108][C] | September 20–24, 2018 | 932 (LV) | – | 40% | 44% | 16% |
| Research & Polling, Inc.[109] | September 7–13, 2018 | 966 (LV) | ± 3.1% | 43% | 50% | – |
| Global Strategy Group (D)[110][D] | August 27–30, 2018 | 601 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 42% | 52% | 5% |
| GQR Research (D)[111][A] | August 18–22, 2018 | 600 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 44% | 52% | – |
| Emerson College[112] | August 17–18, 2018 | 500 (RV) | ± 4.6% | 40% | 42% | 18% |
| The Tarrance Group (R)[113][E] | April 9–12, 2018 | 608 (LV) | ± 4.1% | 45% | 47% | 8% |
| The Tarrance Group (R)[114] | May 20–23, 2017 | 605 (RV) | ± 4.1% | 43% | 47% | 10% |
Hypothetical polling
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[a] |
Margin of error |
Steve Pearce (R) |
Michelle Lujan Grisham (D) |
Bob Walsh (L) |
Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NSON Opinion Strategy (L)[115] | July 2018 | 500 (LV) | – | 37% | 44% | 7% | 11% |
| SurveyUSA[116] | June 19–23, 2018 | 535 (LV) | ± 5.0% | 38% | 51% | 3% | 8% |
| Carroll Strategies[117] | June 15–16, 2018 | 1,199 (LV) | ± 2.8% | 42% | 51% | 3% | 4% |
Results
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | ±% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Democratic | Michelle Lujan Grisham | 398,368 | 57.20% | +14.42% | |
| Republican | Steve Pearce | 298,091 | 42.80% | −14.42% | |
| Majority | 100,277 | 14.40% | |||
| Total votes | 696,459 | 100.00% | |||
| Democratic gain from Republican | Swing | +28.84% | |||
By county
| County[118] | Michelle Lujan Grisham Democratic |
Steve Pearce Republican |
Margin | Total votes cast | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| # | % | # | % | # | % | ||
| Bernalillo | 149,480 | 62.10% | 91,221 | 37.90% | 58,259 | 24.20% | 240,701 |
| Catron | 511 | 27.73% | 1,332 | 72.27% | -821 | -44.55% | 1,843 |
| Chaves | 5,348 | 32.02% | 11,352 | 67.98% | -6,004 | -35.95% | 16,700 |
| Cibola | 3,988 | 55.94% | 3,141 | 44.06% | 847 | 11.88% | 7,129 |
| Colfax | 2,327 | 49.91% | 2,335 | 50.09% | -8 | -0.17% | 4,662 |
| Curry | 3,106 | 30.41% | 7,107 | 69.59% | -4,001 | -39.18% | 10,213 |
| De Baca | 229 | 28.06% | 587 | 71.94% | -358 | -43.87% | 816 |
| Doña Ana | 36,954 | 60.64% | 23,985 | 39.36% | 12,969 | 21.28% | 60,939 |
| Eddy | 4,631 | 29.29% | 11,178 | 70.71% | -6,547 | -41.41% | 15,809 |
| Grant | 7,043 | 59.72% | 4,750 | 40.28% | 2,293 | 19.44% | 11,793 |
| Guadalupe | 1,021 | 60.27% | 673 | 39.73% | 348 | 20.54% | 1,694 |
| Harding | 178 | 37.24% | 300 | 62.76% | -122 | -25.52% | 478 |
| Hidalgo | 785 | 48.25% | 842 | 51.75% | -57 | -3.50% | 1,627 |
| Lea | 3,086 | 22.15% | 10,845 | 77.85% | -7,759 | -55.70% | 13,931 |
| Lincoln | 2,625 | 33.48% | 5,216 | 66.52% | -2,591 | -33.04% | 7,841 |
| Los Alamos | 6,005 | 58.61% | 4,240 | 41.39% | 1,765 | 17.23% | 10,245 |
| Luna | 2,967 | 48.30% | 3,176 | 51.70% | -209 | -3.40% | 6,143 |
| McKinley | 13,117 | 71.46% | 5,238 | 28.54% | 7,879 | 42.93% | 18,355 |
| Mora | 1,664 | 71.05% | 678 | 28.95% | 986 | 42.10% | 2,342 |
| Otero | 6,450 | 37.73% | 10,644 | 62.27% | -4,194 | -24.53% | 17,094 |
| Quay | 1,144 | 37.03% | 1,945 | 62.97% | -801 | -25.93% | 3,089 |
| Rio Arriba | 9,352 | 73.00% | 3,459 | 27.00% | 5,893 | 46.00% | 12,811 |
| Roosevelt | 1,430 | 30.74% | 3,222 | 69.26% | -1,792 | -38.52% | 4,652 |
| San Juan | 13,347 | 35.78% | 23,961 | 64.22% | -10,614 | -28.45% | 37,308 |
| San Miguel | 7,001 | 75.78% | 2,238 | 24.22% | 4,763 | 51.55% | 9,239 |
| Sandoval | 30,425 | 55.09% | 24,803 | 44.91% | 5,622 | 10.18% | 55,228 |
| Santa Fe | 52,692 | 78.54% | 14,394 | 21.46% | 38,298 | 57.09% | 67,086 |
| Sierra | 1,880 | 39.81% | 2,843 | 60.19% | -963 | -20.39% | 4,723 |
| Socorro | 3,596 | 57.44% | 2,664 | 42.56% | 932 | 14.89% | 6,260 |
| Taos | 11,806 | 81.46% | 2,687 | 18.54% | 9,119 | 62.92% | 14,493 |
| Torrance | 2,048 | 38.17% | 3,317 | 61.83% | -1,269 | -23.65% | 5,365 |
| Union | 415 | 28.15% | 1,059 | 71.85% | -644 | -43.69% | 1,474 |
| Valencia | 11,717 | 48.07% | 12,659 | 51.93% | -942 | -3.86% | 24,376 |
| Total | 398,368 | 57.20% | 298,091 | 42.80% | 100,277 | 14.40% | 696,459 |
Counties that flipped from Republican to Democratic
- Bernalillo (largest city: Albuquerque)
- Cibola (largest city: Grants)
- Doña Ana (largest city: Las Cruces)
- Grant (largest city: Silver City)
- Guadalupe (largest city: Santa Rosa)
- Los Alamos (largest city: Los Alamos)
- McKinley (largest city: Gallup)
- Sandoval (largest city: Rancho)
- Socorro (largest city: Socorro)
By congressional district
Grisham won two of three congressional districts, with Pearce winning the remaining one, which elected a Democrat.[119]
| District | Pearce | Lujan Grisham | Representative |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1st | 39% | 61% | Michelle Lujan Grisham |
| Deb Haaland | |||
| 2nd | 53% | 47% | Steve Pearce |
| Xochitl Torres Small | |||
| 3rd | 39% | 61% | Ben Ray Luján |
See also
Notes
Partisan clients
- Poll conducted for Lujan Grisham's campaign.
- Poll conducted for The Majority Institute, a research and strategy hub affiliated with the Democratic Party.
- Poll conducted for the Elect Liberty PAC, an organization dedicated to promoting Libertarian candidates.
- Poll conducted for Hector Balderas, the incumbent New Mexico Attorney General.
- Poll conducted for Pearce's campaign.