2022 New Mexico gubernatorial election
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The 2022 New Mexico gubernatorial election took place on November 8, 2022, to elect the governor and lieutenant governor of New Mexico. The election coincided with various other federal and state elections. Primary elections were held on June 7.[1]
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November 8, 2022
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| Turnout | 52.38%  | |||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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Lujan Grisham: 40–50% 50–60% 60–70% 70–80% 80–90% >90% Ronchetti: 40–50% 50–60% 60–70% 70–80% 80–90% >90% Tie: 40–50% No data | ||||||||||||||||||||
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Incumbent Democratic Governor Michelle Lujan Grisham won a second term by a margin of 6.38%. She was first elected in 2018 with 57.2% of the vote. Her opponent was Republican Mark Ronchetti, who was also his party's nominee in New Mexico's 2020 U.S. Senate election.
Despite losing, Ronchetti managed to carry a congressional district that elected Democrat Gabe Vasquez in the concurrent U.S. House elections. This was the first gubernatorial election in New Mexico since 1986 in which the winner was from the same party as the incumbent president, and the first time since 1978 that it was a Democrat.
Democratic primary
Governor
Candidates
Nominated
- Michelle Lujan Grisham, incumbent governor (2019–present)[2]
Endorsements
Michelle Lujan Grisham
Organizations
Results
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Democratic | Michelle Lujan Grisham (incumbent) | 125,238 | 100.0% | |
| Total votes | 125,238 | 100.0% | ||
Lieutenant governor
Candidates
Nominated
- Howie Morales, incumbent lieutenant governor (2019–present)[2]
Results
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Democratic | Howie Morales (incumbent) | 117,293 | 100.0% | |
| Total votes | 117,293 | 100.0% | ||
Republican primary
Governor
Candidates
Nominated
Eliminated in primary
- Jay Block, Sandoval County commissioner and retired U.S. Air Force officer[6][7]
- Rebecca Dow, state representative (2017–2023)[8]
- Ethel Maharg, Right to Life of New Mexico executive director[9]
- Gregory Zanetti, retired U.S. Army National Guard officer and former chair of the Bernalillo County Republican Party[10]
Withdrew
- Karen Bedonie, businesswoman (running as a Libertarian)[4]
- Louie Sanchez, shooting range owner (ran for U.S. House)[11][12]
- Tim Walsh, former advisor to Governor Gary Johnson and former Lake City, Minnesota city councilman (ran as a Libertarian)[13]
Declined
Polling
Aggregate polls
| Source of poll aggregation |
Dates administered |
Dates updated |
Jay Block |
Rebecca Dow |
Mark Ronchetti |
Greg Zanetti |
Other [a] |
Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Real Clear Politics[15] | April 29 – May 19, 2022 | May 23, 2022 | 10.0% | 13.0% | 44.5% | 9.5% | 23.0% | Ronchetti +31.5 |
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[b] |
Margin of error |
Jay Block |
Rebecca Dow |
Mark Ronchetti |
Greg Zanetti |
Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Research & Polling Inc.[16] | May 15–19, 2022 | 560 (LV) | ± 4.1% | 8% | 17% | 45% | 9% | 1%[c] | 21% |
| SurveyUSA[17] | April 29 – May 7, 2022 | 505 (LV) | ± 6.4% | 12% | 9% | 44% | 10% | 2%[d] | 23% |
| Public Opinion Strategies (R)[18][A] | January 31 – February 1, 2022 | 400 (LV) | ± 4.9% | 2% | 9% | 60% | 7% | 3% | 19% |
Debate
| No. | Date | Host | Moderator | Link | Republican | Republican | Republican | Republican | Republican |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Key: P Participant A Absent N Not invited I Invited W Withdrawn |
|||||||||
| Jay Block | Rebecca Dow | Ethel Maharg | Mark Ronchetti | Gregory Zanetti | |||||
| 1 | Albuquerque Journal KKOB-FM KOAT-TV |
Doug Fernandez | YouTube | P | P | P | P | P | |
Results
Ronchetti
- 30–40%
- 40–50%
- 50–60%
- 60–70%
- 70–80%
Dow
- 30–40%
- 40–50%
- 50–60%
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Republican | Mark Ronchetti | 68,658 | 58.41% | |
| Republican | Rebecca Dow | 18,185 | 15.47% | |
| Republican | Gregory Zanetti | 16,394 | 13.95% | |
| Republican | Jay Block | 12,469 | 10.61% | |
| Republican | Ethel Maharg | 1,845 | 1.57% | |
| Total votes | 117,551 | 100.0% | ||
Lieutenant governor
Candidates
Nominated
- Ant Thornton, aerospace engineer[4]
Eliminated in primary
- Peggy Muller-Aragon, member of the Albuquerque Public Schools Board of Education[4]
Eliminated at convention
- Patrick H. Lyons, former New Mexico Commissioner of Public Lands and former member of the New Mexico Public Regulation Commission[4]
- Anastacia Morper, real estate agent[4]
- Isabella Solis, Doña Ana County commissioner[19]
Results
Thornton
- 50–60%
- 60–70%
- 70–80%
Muller-Aragon
- 50–60%
- 60–70%
Tie
- 50%
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Republican | Ant Thornton | 64,386 | 59.71% | |
| Republican | Peggy Muller-Aragon | 43,438 | 40.29% | |
| Total votes | 107,824 | 100.0% | ||
Libertarian primary
Governor
Candidates
Nominated
- Karen Bedonie, businesswoman and candidate for New Mexico's 3rd congressional district in 2020[4]
Eliminated in primary
- Ginger G. Grider, nominee for Secretary of State of New Mexico in 2018[4]
Withdrew
- Tim Walsh, former advisor to Governor Gary Johnson and former Lake City, Minnesota city councilman[13]
Endorsements
Ginger G. Grider
- Individuals
- Nicholas Sarwark, former Chair of Libertarian National Committee (2014–2020)[20]
Results
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Libertarian | Karen Bedonie | 980 | 86.12% | |
| Libertarian | Ginger G. Grider (write-in) | 158 | 13.88% | |
| Total votes | 1,138 | 100.0% | ||
Lieutenant governor
Travis Sanchez won the Libertarian primary unopposed, but withdrew to become the Libertarian nominee for New Mexico State Auditor.[21] Sanchez was replaced by Efren Gallardo Jr.
Candidates
Declared
- Efren Gallardo Jr.[22]
Withdrew
Results
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Libertarian | Travis Sanchez | 1,175 | 100.0% | |
| Total votes | 1,175 | 100.0% | ||
General election
Predictions
| Source | Ranking | As of |
|---|---|---|
| The Cook Political Report[23] | Lean D | June 8, 2022 |
| Inside Elections[24] | Tilt D | November 3, 2022 |
| Sabato's Crystal Ball[25] | Lean D | January 26, 2022 |
| Politico[26] | Lean D | April 1, 2022 |
| RCP[27] | Tossup | June 20, 2022 |
| Fox News[28] | Tossup | August 22, 2022 |
| 538[29] | Likely D | July 31, 2022 |
| Elections Daily[30] | Lean D | November 7, 2022 |
Endorsements
Michelle Lujan Grisham (D)
U.S. presidents
- Joe Biden, 46th president of the United States (2021–2025)[31]
- Barack Obama, 44th president of the United States (2009–2017)[32]
Federal officials
- Kamala Harris, 49th vice president of the United States (2021–2025)[33]
State officials
- Gavin Newsom, governor of California (2019–present)[34]
Local officials[35]
- Ravi Bhasker, mayor of Socorro
- Luis Bonaguidi, mayor of Gallup
- Tim Keller, mayor of Albuquerque
- Ken Ladner, mayor of Silver City
- Javier Perea, mayor of Sunland Park
- Louie Trujillo, mayor of Las Vegas, New Mexico
- Alan Webber, mayor of Santa Fe
Labor unions
- American Federation of State, County and Municipal Employees[36]
- National Education Association[36]
- United Auto Workers[36]
- United Mine Workers[37]
Organizations
Mark Ronchetti (R)
U.S. presidents
- Donald Trump, 45th president of the United States (2017–2021)[43]
Federal officials
- Nikki Haley, United States Ambassador to the United Nations (2017–2018) and former governor of South Carolina (2011–2017)[44]
- Yvette Herrell, U.S. representative for New Mexico's 2nd congressional district (2021–2023)[45]
- Mike Pence, 48th vice president of the United States (2017–2021)[46]
State officials
- Ron DeSantis, Governor of Florida (2019–present) and former U.S. Representative for Florida's 6th congressional district (2013–2018)[47]
- Doug Ducey, Governor of Arizona (2015–2023) [48]
- Gary Johnson, former governor of New Mexico (1995–2003) (Libertarian)[49]
- Glenn Youngkin, Governor of Virginia (2022–2026)[50]
Sheriffs
- David Black, Otero County sheriff[51]
- Shane Ferrari, San Juan County sheriff[51]
- Corey Helton, Lea County sheriff[51]
- Denise Vigil, Valencia County sheriff[51]
Organizations
Polling
Aggregate polls
| Source of poll aggregation |
Dates administered |
Dates updated |
Michelle Lujan Grisham (D) |
Mark Ronchetti (R) |
Karen Bedonie (L) |
Other [e] |
Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Real Clear Politics[56] | October 6–21, 2022 | October 21, 2022 | 47.0% | 43.5% | – | 9.5% | Lujan Grisham +3.5 |
| FiveThirtyEight[57] | June 14 – October 24, 2022 | October 24, 2022 | 48.7% | 41.1% | 4.9% | 5.3% | Lujan Grisham +7.6 |
| Average | 47.9% | 42.3% | – | 7.4% | Lujan Grisham +5.6 | ||
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[b] |
Margin of error |
Michelle Lujan Grisham (D) |
Mark Ronchetti (R) |
Karen Bedonie (L) |
Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Emerson College[58] | October 25–28, 2022 | 1,000 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 49% | 46% | 2% | <1%[f] | 3% |
| 50% | 48% | 2% | <1%[g] | – | ||||
| Research & Polling Inc.[59][h] | October 20–27, 2022 | 1,254 (LV) | ± 2.8% | 50% | 42% | 3% | – | 5% |
| SurveyUSA[60] | October 21–26, 2022 | 650 (LV) | ± 4.9% | 46% | 39% | 5% | – | 9% |
| The Trafalgar Group (R)[61] | October 19–21, 2022 | 1,077 (LV) | ± 2.9% | 46% | 47% | 4% | – | 4% |
| Public Policy Polling (D)[62] | October 6–7, 2022 | 806 (V) | ± 3.5% | 48% | 40% | 7% | – | 6% |
| SurveyUSA[63] | October 1–6, 2022 | 570 (LV) | ± 5.8% | 53% | 37% | 3% | – | 7% |
| Cygnal (R)[64][B] | September 27–29, 2022 | 400 (LV) | ± 4.9% | 46% | 44% | 5% | – | 5% |
| SurveyUSA[65] | September 8–12, 2022 | 558 (LV) | ± 5.7% | 48% | 36% | 5% | – | 11% |
| Emerson College[66] | September 8–11, 2022 | 1,000 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 48% | 43% | – | 3%[i] | 5% |
| Research & Polling Inc.[67][h] | August 19–25, 2022 | 518 (LV) | ± 4.3% | 47% | 40% | 5% | – | 8% |
| GQR Research (D)[68][C] | June 11–17, 2022 | 500 (LV) | ± 4.4% | 48% | 44% | 5% | – | 3% |
| Public Policy Polling (D)[69] | June 13–14, 2022 | 642 (V) | ± 3.9% | 45% | 42% | 9% | – | 5% |
| Public Opinion Strategies (R)[70][A] | June 11–14, 2022 | 600 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 45% | 46% | – | – | 9% |
| SurveyUSA[71] | April 29 – May 7, 2022 | 1,389 (LV) | ± 3.6% | 47% | 43% | – | – | 11% |
| Cygnal (R)[72][D] | January 3–4, 2022 | 531 (LV) | ± 4.2% | 43% | 42% | – | – | 16% |
Hypothetical polling
Michelle Lujan Grisham vs. Jay Block
Michelle Lujan Grisham vs. Rebecca Dow
Michelle Lujan Grisham vs. Ethel Maharg
Michelle Lujan Grisham vs. Gregory Zanetti
Michelle Lujan Grisham vs. generic Republican
Debates
| No. | Date | Host | Moderator | Link | Democratic | Republican | Libertarian |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Key:
P Participant A Absent N Non-invitee I Invitee W Withdrawn |
|||||||
| Michelle Lujan Grisham | Mark Ronchetti | Karen Bedonie | |||||
| 1 | Oct. 13, 2022 | KOAT-TV | Doug Fernandez | [74] | P | P | N |
Results
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | ±% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Democratic |
|
370,168 | 51.97% | −5.23% | |
| Republican |
|
324,701 | 45.59% | +2.79% | |
| Libertarian |
|
17,387 | 2.44% | N/A | |
| Total votes | 712,256 | 100.0% | |||
| Turnout | 714,797 | 52.38% | N/A | ||
| Registered electors | 1,364,559 | ||||
| Democratic hold | |||||
By county
| County[76] | Michelle Lujan Grisham Democratic |
Mark Ronchetti Republican |
Karen Bedonie Libertarian |
Margin | Total | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| # | % | # | % | # | % | # | % | ||
| Bernalillo | 141,177 | 57.55% | 99,639 | 40.62% | 4,484 | 1.83% | 41,538 | 16.93% | 245,300 |
| Catron | 471 | 23.29% | 1,493 | 73.84% | 58 | 2.87% | -1,022 | -50.54% | 2,022 |
| Chaves | 4,063 | 24.89% | 11,884 | 72.79% | 379 | 2.32% | -7,821 | -47.91% | 16,326 |
| Cibola | 3,418 | 49.75% | 3,230 | 47.02% | 222 | 3.23% | 188 | 2.74% | 6,870 |
| Colfax | 2,053 | 41.82% | 2,719 | 55.39% | 137 | 2.79% | -666 | -13.57% | 4,909 |
| Curry | 2,516 | 24.55% | 7,092 | 69.20% | 640 | 6.25% | -4,576 | -44.65% | 10,248 |
| De Baca | 167 | 22.03% | 566 | 74.67% | 25 | 3.30% | -399 | -52.64% | 758 |
| Doña Ana | 32,147 | 55.69% | 23,213 | 40.21% | 2,364 | 4.10% | 8,934 | 15.48% | 57,724 |
| Eddy | 3,376 | 20.20% | 12,996 | 77.75% | 344 | 2.06% | -9,620 | -57.55% | 16,716 |
| Grant | 6,185 | 52.88% | 5,217 | 44.60% | 294 | 2.51% | 968 | 8.28% | 11,696 |
| Guadalupe | 915 | 52.56% | 784 | 45.03% | 42 | 2.41% | 131 | 7.52% | 1,741 |
| Harding | 129 | 30.79% | 280 | 66.83% | 10 | 2.39% | -151 | -36.04% | 419 |
| Hidalgo | 645 | 39.72% | 914 | 56.28% | 65 | 4.00% | -269 | -16.56% | 1,624 |
| Lea | 2,104 | 15.02% | 11,542 | 82.40% | 362 | 2.58% | -9,438 | -67.38% | 14,008 |
| Lincoln | 2,334 | 27.94% | 5,778 | 69.16% | 243 | 2.91% | -3,444 | -41.22% | 8,355 |
| Los Alamos | 6,192 | 61.02% | 3,751 | 36.96% | 205 | 2.02% | 2,441 | 24.05% | 10,148 |
| Luna | 2,445 | 41.52% | 3,250 | 55.19% | 194 | 3.29% | -805 | -13.67% | 5,889 |
| McKinley | 12,910 | 66.27% | 5,799 | 29.77% | 772 | 3.96% | 7,111 | 36.50% | 19,481 |
| Mora | 1,584 | 64.47% | 832 | 33.86% | 41 | 1.67% | 752 | 30.61% | 2,457 |
| Otero | 5,852 | 33.17% | 11,182 | 63.38% | 608 | 3.45% | -5,330 | -30.21% | 17,642 |
| Quay | 803 | 26.53% | 2,104 | 69.51% | 120 | 3.96% | -1,301 | -42.98% | 3,027 |
| Rio Arriba | 8,037 | 62.01% | 4,729 | 36.49% | 195 | 1.50% | 3,308 | 25.52% | 12,961 |
| Roosevelt | 1,087 | 23.32% | 3,177 | 68.15% | 398 | 8.54% | -2,090 | -44.83% | 4,662 |
| San Juan | 12,849 | 32.08% | 25,574 | 63.85% | 1,631 | 4.07% | -12,725 | -31.77% | 40,054 |
| San Miguel | 6,531 | 68.98% | 2,785 | 29.41% | 152 | 1.61% | 3,746 | 39.56% | 9,468 |
| Sandoval | 30,789 | 50.28% | 29,337 | 47.91% | 1,109 | 1.81% | 1,452 | 2.37% | 61,235 |
| Santa Fe | 52,447 | 75.35% | 16,287 | 23.40% | 868 | 1.25% | 36,160 | 51.95% | 69,602 |
| Sierra | 1,780 | 36.19% | 3,001 | 61.01% | 138 | 2.81% | -1,221 | -24.82% | 4,919 |
| Socorro | 2,950 | 48.05% | 2,988 | 48.66% | 202 | 3.29% | -38 | -0.62% | 6,140 |
| Taos | 10,188 | 76.33% | 2,964 | 22.21% | 196 | 1.47% | 7,224 | 54.12% | 13,348 |
| Torrance | 1,588 | 28.64% | 3,712 | 66.96% | 244 | 4.40% | -2,124 | -38.31% | 5,544 |
| Union | 328 | 21.87% | 1,101 | 73.40% | 71 | 4.73% | -773 | -51.53% | 1,500 |
| Valencia | 10,108 | 39.70% | 14,781 | 58.05% | 574 | 2.25% | -4,673 | -18.35% | 25,463 |
| Totals | 370,168 | 51.97% | 324,701 | 45.59% | 17,387 | 2.44% | 45,467 | 6.38% | 712,256 |
Counties that flipped from Democratic to Republican
By congressional district
Lujan Grisham won two of three congressional districts, with Ronchetti winning the remaining one, which elected a Democrat.[77]
| District | Lujan Grisham | Ronchetti | Representative |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1st | 53% | 45% | Melanie Stansbury |
| 2nd | 48% | 49% | Yvette Herrell (117th Congress) |
| Gabe Vasquez (118th Congress) | |||
| 3rd | 54% | 44% | Teresa Leger Fernandez |
Notes
- Calculated by taking the difference of 100% and all other candidates combined.
- Key:
A – all adults
RV – registered voters
LV – likely voters
V – unclear - Maharg with 1%
- Maharg with 2%
- Calculated by taking the difference of 100% and all other candidates combined.
- "Someone else" with <1%
- "Someone else" with <1%
- Poll conducted for the Albuquerque Journal.
- "Someone else" with 3%
Partisan clients
- The poll was sponsored by Ronchetti's campaign
- Poll sponsored by Jeremy Gay, the Republican nominee for New Mexico Attorney General.
- This poll was sponsored by EDF Action
- This poll was sponsored by Zanetti's campaign