2018 United States Senate election in Wyoming
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The 2018 United States Senate election in Wyoming took place on November 6, 2018, to elect a member of the United States Senate to represent the State of Wyoming. The primary election took place on August 21, 2018.[1] Republican John Barrasso won re-election with 67% percent of the vote, the lowest percentage of his four U.S. Senate campaigns and the closest a Democrat has come to winning a Senate seat in the state since the 1996 election, and the first time since that election in which Democrats managed to even win counties in the state, those being Teton and Albany, and the first time that the Democratic candidate won any counties for this seat since 1994. Trauner was the first Democrat to win Teton County in a Senate contest since 1940, and the first ever losing Democrat to do so.
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November 6, 2018
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| Turnout | 77.43%  | ||||||||||||||||
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  Barrasso: 40–50% 50–60% 60–70% 70–80% 80–90% >90% Trauner: 40–50% 50–60% 60–70% 70–80% No votes | |||||||||||||||||
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Background
In 2012, incumbent Republican John Barrasso was re-elected with 76% of the vote. Heavily rural, Wyoming has the smallest population of any state and is considered the most Republican state in the nation. It had not elected a Democratic Senate candidate since 1970. In 2008, Republican presidential nominee John McCain carried the state with 64% of the vote. Republican Mitt Romney won it in 2012 with 68% of the vote, and Republican Donald Trump won it in 2016 with 67% of the vote.
Republican primary
Candidates
Nominated
- John Barrasso, incumbent U.S. senator[2]
Declared
- Rocky De La Fuente, perennial candidate, and candidate for president of the United States in 2016[3]
- Dave Dodson, businessman[4]
- John Holtz, attorney[4]
- Anthony Van Risseghem[4]
Declined
- Foster Friess, businessman (running for governor of Wyoming)[5][6]
- Erik Prince, founder of Academi[7]
Withdrawn
- Charlie Hardy, Democratic nominee for U.S. Senate in 2014 and candidate for U.S. House of Representatives in 2016[4] (endorsed Dave Dodson)
Results
- 50–60%
- 60–70%
- 70–80%
- 50–60%
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Republican | John Barrasso (incumbent) | 74,292 | 64.76% | |
| Republican | Dave Dodson | 32,647 | 28.46% | |
| Republican | John Holtz | 2,981 | 2.60% | |
| Republican | Charlie Hardy (withdrawn) | 2,377 | 2.07% | |
| Republican | Roque "Rocky" De La Fuente | 1,280 | 1.16% | |
| Republican | Anthony Van Risseghem | 870 | 0.7% | |
| Write-in | 267 | 0.23% | ||
| Total votes | 114,714 | 100% | ||
Democratic primary
Candidates
Nominated
- Gary Trauner, businessman and nominee for the U.S. House of Representatives in 2006 and 2008[9]
Declined
- Mary Throne, former Minority Leader of the Wyoming House of Representatives (running for governor)[10][11]
Results
- 90–100%
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Democratic | Gary Trauner | 17,562 | 98.90% | |
| Write-in | 195 | 1.10% | ||
| Total votes | 17,757 | 100% | ||
Independents
Candidates
Withdrew
- Dave Dodson, businessman[12] (running as a Republican)[4]
General election
Predictions
| Source | Ranking | As of |
|---|---|---|
| The Cook Political Report[13] | Safe R | October 26, 2018 |
| Inside Elections[14] | Safe R | November 1, 2018 |
| Sabato's Crystal Ball[15] | Safe R | November 5, 2018 |
| Fox News[16][a] | Likely R | November 5, 2018 |
| CNN[17] | Safe R | November 5, 2018 |
| RealClearPolitics[18] | Safe R | November 5, 2018 |
Polling
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
John Barrasso (R) |
Gary Trauner (D) |
Joseph Porambo (L) |
Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Change Research[19] | November 2–4, 2018 | 858 | – | 60% | 31% | 6% | – |
Endorsements
- Executive branch officials
- Donald Trump, 45th president of the United States[20]
- Organizations
Results
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | ±% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Republican | John Barrasso (incumbent) | 136,210 | 66.96% | −8.70% | |
| Democratic | Gary Trauner | 61,227 | 30.10% | +8.45% | |
| Libertarian | Joseph Porambo | 5,658 | 2.78% | N/A | |
| Write-in | 325 | 0.16% | -0.01% | ||
| Total votes | 203,420 | 100% | N/A | ||
| Republican hold | |||||
By county
| John Barrasso Republican |
Gary Trauner Democrat |
Joseph Porambo Libertarian |
Write-ins | Total | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| County | Votes | % | Votes | % | Votes | % | Votes | % | Votes |
| Albany | 6,366 | 44.15% | 7,576 | 52.54% | 442 | 3.07% | 35 | 0.24% | 14,419 |
| Big Horn | 3,564 | 82.56% | 639 | 14.80% | 102 | 2.36% | 12 | 0.28% | 4,317 |
| Campbell | 11,020 | 84.44% | 1,628 | 12.47% | 387 | 2.97% | 16 | 0.12% | 13,051 |
| Carbon | 3,673 | 70.72% | 1,359 | 26.16% | 156 | 3.00% | 6 | 0.12% | 5,194 |
| Converse | 3,959 | 79.87% | 834 | 16.82% | 153 | 3.09% | 11 | 0.22% | 4,957 |
| Crook | 2,642 | 85.56% | 335 | 10.84% | 110 | 3.56% | 1 | 0.03% | 3,089 |
| Fremont | 9,262 | 64.34% | 4,734 | 32.89% | 380 | 2.64% | 19 | 0.13% | 14,395 |
| Goshen | 3,658 | 76.24% | 1,020 | 21.26% | 115 | 2.40% | 5 | 0.10% | 4,798 |
| Hot Springs | 1,742 | 77.15% | 455 | 20.15% | 58 | 2.57% | 3 | 0.13% | 2,258 |
| Johnson | 3,085 | 79.33% | 722 | 18.57% | 79 | 2.03% | 3 | 0.08% | 3,889 |
| Laramie | 19,473 | 59.72% | 12,167 | 37.31% | 907 | 2.78% | 61 | 0.19% | 32,608 |
| Lincoln | 5,846 | 81.23% | 1,152 | 16.01% | 187 | 2.60% | 12 | 0.16% | 7,197 |
| Natrona | 16,359 | 66.87% | 7,285 | 29.78% | 778 | 3.18% | 42 | 0.17% | 24,464 |
| Niobrara | 980 | 84.56% | 144 | 12.42% | 32 | 2.76% | 3 | 0.26% | 1,159 |
| Park | 8,938 | 75.57% | 2,589 | 21.89% | 276 | 2.33% | 24 | 0.20% | 11,827 |
| Platte | 2,850 | 75.30% | 801 | 21.16% | 131 | 3.46% | 3 | 0.08% | 3,785 |
| Sheridan | 8,318 | 70.46% | 3,205 | 27.15% | 261 | 2.21% | 21 | 0.18% | 11,805 |
| Sublette | 2,653 | 77.87% | 668 | 19.61% | 84 | 2.47% | 2 | 0.06% | 3,407 |
| Sweetwater | 8,577 | 66.11% | 3,943 | 30.39% | 430 | 3.31% | 23 | 0.18% | 12,973 |
| Teton | 3,833 | 32.62% | 7,691 | 65.46% | 220 | 1.87% | 6 | 0.05% | 11,750 |
| Uinta | 4,713 | 75.05% | 1,371 | 21.83% | 188 | 2.99% | 8 | 0.13% | 6,280 |
| Washakie | 2,423 | 77.91% | 588 | 18.91% | 93 | 2.99% | 6 | 0.19% | 3,110 |
| Weston | 2,275 | 84.64% | 321 | 11.94% | 89 | 3.31% | 3 | 0.11% | 2,688 |
Counties that flipped from Republican to Democratic
Notes
- The Fox News Midterm Power Rankings uniquely does not contain a category for Safe/Solid races