2019 Madeiran regional election

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2019 Madeiran regional election
← 2015
22 September 2019
2023 →
47 seats to the Legislative Assembly of Madeira
24 seats needed for a majority
Opinion polls
Turnout55.5% Increase 5.8 pp
  First party Second party Third party
 
Leader Miguel Albuquerque Paulo Cafôfo[a] Rui Barreto
Party PSD PS CDS–PP
Leader since 10 January 2015 19 January 2018
(designated candidate)		 22 July 2018
Last election 24 seats, 44.4% 5 seats (CM)[b] 7 seats, 13.1%
Seats won 21 19 3
Seat change Decrease 3 Increase 14 Decrease 4
Popular vote 56,449 51,207 8,246
Percentage 39.4% 35.8% 5.8%
Swing Decrease 4.9 pp [b] Decrease 7.9 pp
  Fourth party Fifth party Sixth party
 
Leader Élvio Sousa Edgar Silva Paulino Ascensão
Party JPP CDU BE
Leader since 27 January 2015 1996 4 March 2018
Last election 5 seats, 10.3% 2 seats, 5.5% 2 seats, 3.8%
Seats won 3 1 0
Seat change Decrease 2 Decrease 1 Decrease 2
Popular vote 7,830 2,577 2,489
Percentage 5.5% 1.8% 1.7%
Swing Decrease 4.8 pp Decrease 3.7 pp Decrease 2.1 pp
The most voted party by municipality.
President before election

Miguel Albuquerque
PSD

 Elected President

Miguel Albuquerque
PSD

Regional elections were held on 22 September 2019[1] to determine the composition of the Legislative Assembly of the Autonomous Region of Madeira in Portugal. All 47 members of the Assembly were up for election.

The Social Democratic Party continued their 43-year streak of being the largest party in the Madeiran legislature, but failed to hold on to their absolute majority, and would require a coalition for the first time to remain in power. The party won 39 percent of the votes, a decrease of 5 percentage points, and lost 3 members of the regional party. In the electoral map, the PSD lost the two biggest cities in Madeira, Funchal and Santa Cruz to the PS, although by less than 2 percent of the vote. Overall, the PSD still won the majority of municipalities, obtaining victory in 7 of the 11 in Madeira.

The Socialist Party surged in these elections, polling just two seats and 3.6 points behind the PSD. It was the best showing of the PS in a regional election in Madeira going back to the first regional elections in 1976, two years after the fall of the dictatorship. The party won 4 of the 11 municipalities in Madeira. The People's Party lost a lot of votes and seats in these elections, winning just 3 seats and 5.8 percent of the vote. Together for the People (JPP) also suffered a big setback by losing 2 members and almost 5 percent of the votes. It even failed to obtain second place in their traditional bastion of Santa Cruz, falling behind the PS and PSD. The Unitary Democratic Coalition lost 1 of their 2 seats, and lost 3.7 percent of votes compared to 2015. The Left Bloc was wiped from the regional Assembly completely and only won 1.7 percent of the votes. These elections were fought mainly between the PSD and PS, and many left-wing voters opted to vote tactically for the PS to prevent another PSD victory, but by doing so, they hurt the chances of smaller left-wing parties and alliances such as the Left Bloc and CDU.[2]

The turnout in these elections increased compared to the previous one for the first time in over a decade, with 55.5 percent of voters casting a ballot, compared with the record-low 49.6 percent in the 2015 elections.

Following the elections, PSD and CDS-PP formed a coalition government with a parliamentary majority, headed by Miguel Albuquerque.[3]

Leadership changes and challenges

Socialist Party

After the party's dismal result in the 2015 regional election, just 11 percent of the votes, the then PS leader, Victor Freitas resigned and a leadership ballot was called.[4] Carlos João Pereira was the sole candidate for the leadership and was elected with 70% of the votes.[5] However, Pereira's leadership divided the party, as he spent much more time in the Assembly of the Republic, in Lisbon, rather than in Madeira. A leadership ballot was called for 19 January 2018 and two candidates were on the ballot: Incumbent leader Carlos Pereira and Porto Moniz mayor, Emanuel Câmara. Câmara defeated Pereira by a 57 to 43 percent margin.[6] The results were the following:

Ballot: 19 January 2018
Candidate Votes %
Emanuel Câmara 877 56.8
Carlos João Pereira 668 43.2
Turnout 1,545 79.15
Source:[7]

Despite being elected leader, Emanuel Câmara announced that he would not be the party's candidate for the Presidency of the Regional Government and that he would pick Funchal mayor Paulo Cafôfo as the party's lead candidate.[8]

Electoral system

The current 47 members of the Madeiran regional parliament are elected in a single constituency by proportional representation under the D'Hondt method, coinciding with the territory of the Region.[9]

Parties

Current composition

The table below lists parties represented in the Legislative Assembly of Madeira before the election.

Name Ideology Leader 2015 result
% Seats
PPD/PSD Social Democratic Party
Partido Social Democrata		 Liberal conservatism Miguel Albuquerque 44.4%
24 / 47
CDS–PP CDS – People's Party
Centro Democrático Social – Partido Popular		 Conservatism Rui Barreto 13.1%
7 / 47
PS Socialist Party
Partido Socialista		 Social democracy Emanuel Câmara[a]
Paulo Cafôfo		 11.4%
[b]
5 / 47
PTP Portuguese Labour Party
Partido Trabalhista Português		 Social democracy Quintino Costa
1 / 47
JPP Together for the People
Juntos pelo Povo		 Social liberalism Élvio Sousa 10.3%
5 / 47
PCP Portuguese Communist Party
Partido Comunista Português		 Communism Edgar Silva 5.5%
[c]
2 / 47
B.E. Left Bloc
Bloco de Esquerda		 Democratic socialism Paulino Ascenção 3.8%
2 / 47
Ind. Independent
Independente		 Gil Canha (elected for the now extinct PND)
1 / 47

Parties running in the election

17 parties were on the ballot for the 2019 Madeira regional election. The parties that contested the election and their lead candidates were: (parties/coalitions are ordered by the way they appeared on the ballot)[10]

Campaign period

Party slogans

Party or alliance Original slogan English translation Refs
PSD « Cumprir no rumo certo » "Delivering on the right track" [21]
CDS–PP « Este é o momento » "This is the moment" [22]
PS « Coragem para mudar » "Courage to change" [23]
JPP « Dar voz aos Madeirenses » "Giving voice to Madeirans" [24]
BE « A Madeira para todos » "Madeira for all" [25]
CDU « CDU, o voto que conta » "CDU, the vote that counts" [26]

Candidates' debates

2019 Madeiran regional election debates
Date Organisers Moderator(s)     I  Invitee    P  Present    A  Absent invitee  N  Non-invitee 
PSD
Albuquerque		 PS
Cafôfo		 CDS–PP
Barreto		 BE
Ascenção		 CDU
Silva		 JPP
Sousa		 Refs
19 Sep RTP Madeira, RTP3 Gil Rosa P P P P P P [27]

Opinion polls

Graphical summary

00.10.20.30.40.53/29/201510/24/20172/8/20199/17/2019PSDCDS-PPPSJPPCDUBEPTPPANMPTAOpinion polling for the 2019 Madeiran regional election
View source data.

Polling

  Exit poll

Polling firm/Link Fieldwork date Sample size Turnout PSD CDS–PP PS
CDU BE PTP PAN MPT A O Lead
2019 regional election 22 Sep 2019 N/a 55.5% 39.4
21		 5.8
3		 35.8
19		 5.5
3		 1.8
1		 1.7
0		 1.0
0		 1.5
0		 0.4
0		 0.5
0		 6.6
0		 3.6
UCP–CESOP 22 Sep 2019 6,000 ? 37–41
19/23		 5–7
2/3		 34–38
17/21		 3–5
1/2		 1–3
0/1		 1–3
0/1		 - 1–2
0/1		 - - - 3
Eurosondagem 15–17 Sep 2019 1,525 ? 36.0
19		 8.0
4		 33.6
17/18		 2.5
1		 4.5
2		 4.0
2		 0.7
0		 ?
0/1		 - ?
0/1		 10.7
0/1		 2.4
Intercampus 2–16 Sep 2019 1,503 ? 39.0
21		 9.3
5		 33.1
17		 3.4
1		 3.9
2		 2.2
1		 - - - - 9.1
0		 5.9
UCP–CESOP 14–15 Sep 2019 1,375 ? 38
19/23		 5
2/3		 29
14/18		 4
2/3		 3
1/2		 5
2/3		 - 2
1		 1.5
0/1		 1.5
0/1		 11
0		 9
Eurosondagem 21–24 Jul 2019 1,519 ? 33.3
18/19		 7.1
3/4		 31.9
17/18		 4.2
2		 4.0
2		 6.9
3/4		 0.5
0		 - - - 12.0
0/1		 1.4
2019 EP elections 26 May 2019 N/a 38.5 37.2
(22)		 8.1
(4)		 25.8
(15)		 N/a 3.0
(1)		 5.3
(3)		 1.3
(0)		 3.7
(2)		 N/a 1.6
(0)		 14.0
(0)		 11.4
CDS-PP internal 8 Feb 2019 ? ? 36.0
19/20		 8.0
4/5		 33.0
18/19		 4.0
2		 3.0
1		 3.0
1		 2.0
0/1		 - - - 11.0
0		 3.0
Eurosondagem 14–17 Jan 2019 1,510 ? 34.7
18/19		 8.0
4		 36.9
19/20		 4.8
2		 3.6
1/2		 4.0
2		 0.9
0		 - - - 7.1
0		 2.2
Eurosondagem 26–28 Nov 2018 748 ? 34.2
18		 10.6
5		 33.9
18		 6.5
3		 3.4
1		 4.0
2		 1.6
0		 - - - 5.8
0		 0.3
Intercampus 21–26 Nov 2018 400 ? ?
19		 ?
2		 ?
23		 ?
2		 ?
1		 ?
0		 ?
0		 ?
0		 ?
0		 ?
0		 ?
0		 ?
Eurosondagem 19–24 Jul 2018 1,018 ? 36.3
18/19		 7.1
3/4		 35.7
18/19		 6.0
3		 4.8
2		 3.9
2		 1.2
0		 - - [e] 5.0
0		 0.6
Eurosondagem 5–7 Feb 2018 1,018 ? 38.5
20/21		 5.9
3		 33.2
17/18		 6.8
3		 3.1
1		 4.9
2		 1.4
0		 - - 6.2
0		 5.3
Eurosondagem 22–24 Oct 2017 1,017 ? 36.3
19		 6.0
3		 33.6
17		 6.5
3		 4.5
2		 4.1
2		 2.1
1		 - - 6.9
0		 2.7
2017 local elections 1 Oct 2017 N/a 54.2 33.6
(19)		 9.1
(5)		 29.1
(16)		 10.2
(5)		 2.4
(1)		 0.7
(0)		 1.7
(1)		 N/a 0.6
(0)		 12.6
(0)		 4.5
Eurosondagem 7–9 Jun 2017 1,010 ? 40.4
21/22		 5.4
2/3		 30.0
15/16		 4.7
2		 4.9
2		 5.9
2		 1.9
2		 - - 6.8
0		 10.4
Eurosondagem 14–16 Mar 2017 1,017 ? 38.0
20/21		 8.6
4		 27.2
14/15		 4.1
2		 5.0
2/3		 6.93 1.3
–		 - - 8.90 10.8
2015 legislative election 4 Oct 2015 N/a 48.9 37.8
(21)		 6.0
(3)		 20.9
(11)		 6.9
(3)		 3.6
(2)		 10.7
(6)		 1.4
(0)		 1.8
(1)		 1.4
(0)		 13.5
(0)		 16.9
2015 regional election 29 Mar 2015 N/a 49.6 44.4
24		 13.7
7		 11.4[b]
5		 10.3
5		 5.5
2		 3.8
2		 [b]
1		 [b]
0		 [b]
0		 10.9
1		 30.7

Voter turnout

The table below shows voter turnout throughout election day.

Turnout Time
12:00 16:00 19:00
2015 2019 ± 2015 2019 ± 2015 2019 ±
Total 17.21% 20.97% Increase 3.76 pp 37.48% 40.79% Increase 3.31 pp 49.58% 55.50% Increase 5.92 pp
Sources[28][29]

Results

On election night, the centre-right PSD and national-conservative CDS said they were willing to form a coalition government.[30]

Summary of the 22 September 2019 Legislative Assembly of Madeira elections results
Parties Votes % ±pp swing MPs
2015 2019 ± % ±
Social Democratic 56,44939.42Decrease4.92421Decrease344.68Decrease6.4
Socialist 51,20735.76[b]519Increase1440.43Increase29.8
People's 8,2465.76Decrease8.073Decrease46.38Decrease8.5
Together for the People 7,8305.47Decrease4.853Decrease26.38Decrease4.3
Unitary Democratic Coalition 2,5771.80Decrease3.721Decrease12.13Decrease2.1
Left Bloc 2,4891.74Decrease2.120Decrease20.00Decrease4.2
People-Animals-Nature 2,0951.46[b]00Steady00.00Steady0.0
United Party of Retirees and Pensioners 1,7661.23N/aN/a0N/a0.00N/a
React, Include, Recycle 1,7491.22N/aN/a0N/a0.00N/a
Labour 1,4261.00[b]10Decrease10.00Decrease2.1
Alliance 7660.53N/aN/a0N/a0.00N/a
Liberal Initiative 7620.53N/aN/a0N/a0.00N/a
CHEGA 6190.43N/aN/a0N/a0.00N/a
Democratic Republican 6030.42N/aN/a0N/a0.00N/a
Portuguese Workers' Communist 6010.42Decrease1.300Steady00.00Steady0.0
Earth 5070.35[b]00Steady00.00Steady0.0
National Renovator 2740.19Decrease0.600Steady00.00Steady0.0
Total valid 139,966 97.74 Increase2.1 47 47 Steady0 100.00 Steady0.0
Blank ballots 7000.49Decrease0.5
Invalid ballots 2,5341.77Decrease1.6
Total 143,200 100.00
Registered voters/turnout 258,00555.50Increase5.8
Source: Comissão Nacional de Eleições
Vote share
PSD
 
 39.42%
PS
 
 35.76%
CDS-PP
 
 5.76%
JPP
 
 5.47%
CDU
 
 1.80%
BE
 
 1.74%
PAN
 
 1.46%
PURP
 
 1.23%
RIR
 
 1.22%
PTP
 
 1.00%
Alliance
 
 0.53%
IL
 
 0.53%
Others
 
 1.81%
Blank/Invalid
 
 2.26%
Parliamentary seats
PSD
 
 44.68%
PS
 
 40.43%
CDS-PP
 
 6.38%
JPP
 
 6.38%
CDU
 
 2.13%

Maps

Aftermath

Government approval

For the first time in democracy, the PSD failed to win an outright majority of seats and was forced to negotiate with other parties. Shortly after, the party reached a deal with CDS – People's Party (CDS–PP) to form a coalition government.[3] On 13 November 2019, the regional parliament approved Albuquerque's second led government, the first coalition government in Madeira:

2019 Motion of confidence
Miguel Albuquerque (PSD)
Ballot → 13 November 2019
Required majority → Simple
Yes
24 / 47
No
23 / 47
Abstentions
0 / 47
Absentees
0 / 47
Result → Approved check
Sources[31]

See also

Notes

References

External links

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