2025 Madeiran regional election

In the 2024 election, albeit being marred in an ongoing corruption investigation, the Social Democratic Party was once again the most voted party with 36.1 percent of the votes. Despite their victory, the PSD failed to win a majority of the seats.^[7]

The Socialist Party (PS) led by former Funchal mayor Paulo Cafôfo achieved a similar result to the 2023 elections, with 21.3 percent of the votes. The big surprise of the election was the regionalist party Together for the People (JPP), who gained 4 seats from their previous 5 seats and who achieved 16.9 percent of the votes.^[8] After the election, PS and JPP struck a deal in order to make a coalition government and prevent a government led by Albuquerque, despite not having a majority.^[9]

Miguel Albuquerque negotiated a parliamentary support agreement with the CDS – People's Party (CDS–PP), their previous coalition partners, in order to form a minority government.^[10] Albuquerque was appointed as president and had to face a vote of confidence in the regional parliament.^[11]

Albuquerque presented his government programme to the speaker of the Regional Parliament, José Manuel Rodrigues, on 14 June 2024, with Miguel Albuqerque saying that policies of all Opposition parties were included in the document.^[12] However, the Socialist Party (PS), Together for the People (JPP) and Chega (CH) announced they would vote against Albuquerque in the vote of confidence on 20 June 2024, thus putting at risk the continuity of the regional government.^[13] Facing a rejection, Albuquerque withdrew, on 19 June, his programme from the assembly and announced negotiations to present a new one, thus cancelling the 20 June vote.^[14] After negotiations with Opposition parties, mainly Chega, IL, CDS–PP and PAN, Miguel Albuquerque presented, on 2 July, a new government programme that was to be voted on 4 July, but which had no certainties of passing at the moment it was presented.^[15] On 4 July 2024, Albuquerque's government passed in the regional assembly, with 22 votes in favour, from PSD, CDS–PP and PAN, 21 votes against, from PS, JPP and Chega member Magna Costa, and four abstentions by IL and the three members from Chega.^[16]

On 6 November 2024, Chega presented a motion of no confidence to bring down Miguel Albuquerque,^[17] citing the continued accusations, and investigations, of corruption against several regional secretaries and Albuquerque himself.^[18] At the same time, the Chega motion also criticized the Socialist Party (PS) for being an "accomplice" of the Social Democrats bad government,^[19] and this accusation generated divisions within the PS on what should be the party's position, with members divided between the vote in favour or abstain.^[20][21][22] However, shortly after, Chega said it was open to drop the criticisms towards the PS, and then the PS signaled it would vote in favour of the motion,^[23][24] which was later officially confirmed.^[25] The motion was expected to be voted on 18 November, but a PSD request to delay the vote was approved and the motion was then rescheduled for 17 December 2024.^[26] On 9 December, the proposed budget for 2025 was rejected on the first reading with the votes of all Opposition parties and the approval of only PSD and CDS–PP.^[27] On 17 December, the motion of no confidence was approved with the votes of all Opposition parties and the sole rejection of PSD and CDS–PP, thus causing the regional government to fall.^[28] After meeting with parties and the Council of State, President Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa dissolved the regional parliament and called an election for 23 March 2025.^[1]

Nuno Morna, regional party leader, announced on 16 June 2024 he was stepping down from the party's leadership, but remaining as regional Parliament member,^[29][30] and a leadership ballot was called for 27 July 2024. Duarte Gouveia, Morna's predecessor in the leadership post, announced his intention to return to the party's leadership.^[31] A second candidate, Gonçalo Maia Camelo, also announced his intention to run for the leadership.^[32] However, just days before the ballot, Duarte Gouveia withdrew from the race citing "lack of conditions" to campaign for the leadership.^[33] Gonçalo Maia Camelo became the sole candidate and was elected, in a closed party meeting, as new regional leader on 27 July.^[34]

The vote to decide the leadership of the Chega-Madeira party was held on September 22, 2024.^[35] There were three candidates on the ballot: Regional leader Miguel Castro; regional assembly member Magna Costa and Câmara de Lobos local assembly member José Fernandes.^[35] The ballot was quite secretive, with the media being barred from covering it,^[36] and Miguel Castro was re-elected as leader with 39 percent, followed by José Fernandes with 31 percent and Magna Costa with 28 percent.^[37] The results were the following:

Nearly five months after this ballot, in February 2025, the third-place candidate, Magna Costa, left Chega's regional parliamentary group.^[38]

Regional party leader Paulo Cafôfo always rejected an internal election, pressing that he would be the party's main candidate in a snap regional elections,^[39] while his opposition, led by former leader Carlos João Pereira, demanded a leadership election.^[40] But, on 10 January 2025, Cafôfo surprised by calling a snap leadership election for 31 January, stating he was not afraid of elections.^[41] Carlos Pereira, however, rejected running in this ballot, citing the limited time to run a candidacy and that this action by Cafôfo "shames the Socialists".^[42] Paulo Cafôfo was the sole candidate on the ballot.^[43] Around 2,000 party members were registered to vote and Cafôfo was reelected with 98 percent of the votes:^[44][45]

In the PSD, Miguel Albuquerque's challenger in 2015 and 2024, Manuel António Correia, also pressed for a snap leadership ballot, saying that Albuquerque was the source of all the current instability in Madeira, and delivered enough signatures to ask for the calling of a ballot.^[46] Miguel Albuquerque, however, rejected any chance of calling a leadership ballot, saying it would divide the party and that there was no time available.^[47] On 16 January 2025, the PSD-Madeira Jurisdiction Board rejected the signatures and the request for a leadership ballot.^[48]

The current 47 members of the Madeiran regional parliament are elected in a single constituency by proportional representation under the D'Hondt method, coinciding with the territory of the Region.^[49]

The table below lists parties represented in the Legislative Assembly of Madeira before the election.

• On 12 February 2025, Chega member Magna Costa left the party following deep disagreements, political and personal, with the party's regional leader Miguel Castro.^[38]

14 parties and/or coalitions were on the ballot for the 2025 Madeira regional election. The parties and/or coalitions that contested the election and their lead candidates were: (parties/coalitions are ordered by how they appeared on the ballot paper)^[51]

• Unitary Democratic Coalition (CDU), Edgar Silva^[52]
• Social Democratic Party (PSD), Miguel Albuquerque
• LIVRE (L), Marta Sofia^[53]
• Together for the People (JPP), Élvio Sousa
• New Right (ND), Paulo Ricardo Azevedo^[54]
• People-Animals-Nature (PAN), Mónica Freitas
• Portuguese Labour Party/Earth Party/React, Include, Recycle Forward Madeira coalition (PTP/MPT/RIR), Raquel Coelho^[55]
• Socialist Party (PS), Paulo Cafôfo
• Liberal Initiative (IL), Gonçalo Maia Camelo
• People's Monarchist Party (PPM), Paulo Brito^[56]
• Left Bloc (BE), Roberto Almada^[57]
• Enough (CH), Miguel Castro
• National Democratic Alternative (ADN), Miguel Pita^[58]
• CDS – People's Party (CDS–PP), José Manuel Rodrigues

The campaign was dominated by the political instability in the islands, with parties taking positions for negotiations and alliances after election day.^[59] On the left, the Socialist Party (PS) called for a convergence of votes in the party, but with Together for the People (JPP) making a strong challenge.^[60] On the right, the Social Democratic Party (PSD) asked for a "comfortable majority" to govern,^[61] however, other parties said that talks with the PSD would only be possible without Albuquerque.^[62] Voter fatigue and apathy was also a source of concern due to the successive elections just in the last two years.^[63]

Polls that show their results without distributing those respondents who are undecided or said they would abstain from voting, are re-calculated by removing these numbers from the totals through a simple rule of three, in order to obtain results comparable to other polls and the official election results.

  Exit poll

Polling firm/Link	Fieldwork date	Sample size	Turnout												O	Lead
2025 regional election	23 March 2025	—N/a	56.0	43.4 23	3.0 1	15.6 8	21.1 11	5.5 3	2.2 1	1.6 0	1.8 0	1.1 0	0.6 0	0.7 0	3.5 0	22.3
CESOP–UCP	23 Mar 2025	12,831	53–59	41–46 21/24	1–4 0/2	14–18 7/10	18–22 9/12	4–7 2/4	1–4 0/2	1–3 0/1	1–3 0/1	1–2 0/1	—N/a	—N/a	—N/a	23 24
Aximage[d]	7–17 Mar 2025	561	?	38.6 21	2.6 1	21.3 11	20.0 10	8.3 4	1.5 0	1.3 0	1.1 0	1.5 0	—N/a	0.3 0	3.4 0	17.3
Intercampus[e]	5–13 Mar 2025	801	?	46.7 24	3.0 1	20.3 10	13.0 6	6.6 3	3.4 1	2.1 1	2.2 1	1.7 0	—N/a	1.0 0	—N/a	26.4
Intercampus[f]	29 Nov–7 Dec 2024	803	?	38.7 20	4.3 2	21.2 11	15.2 7	7.1 3	4.3 2	2.1 1	—N/a	2.2 1	1.7 0	—N/a	3.3 0	17.5
Aximage[g]	30 Nov–6 Dec 2024	458	?	37.4 19	3.2 1	19.2 10	18.3 9	11.3 5	4.0 2	2.6 1	—N/a	—N/a	—N/a	—N/a	3.9 0	18.2
2024 EP election	9 Jun 2024	—N/a	41.6	42.7 (23)		26.0 (14)	—N/a	9.1 (4)	5.4 (2)	1.9 (1)	1.9 (1)	2.9 (1)	1.6 (0)	1.7 (0)	6.8 (1)	16.7
2024 regional election	26 May 2024	—N/a	53.4	36.1 19	4.0 2	21.3 11	16.9 9	9.2 4	2.6 1	1.9 1	1.6 0	1.4 0	0.9 0	0.7 0	3.3 0	14.8

The table below shows voter turnout throughout election day.

Turnout	Time
	12:00			16:00			19:00
	2024	2025	±	2024	2025	±	2024	2025	±
Total	20.22%	22.10%	1.88 pp	40.52%	42.48%	1.96 pp	53.40%	55.98%	2.58 pp
Sources[80][81]

Summary of the 23 March 2025 Legislative Assembly of Madeira elections results

Parties		Votes	%	±pp swing	MPs
					2024	2025	±	%	±
	Social Democratic	62,059	43.41	7.3	19	23	4	48.94	8.5
	Together for the People	30,091	21.05	4.2	9	11	2	23.40	4.3
	Socialist	22,351	15.63	5.7	11	8	3	17.02	6.4
	CHEGA	7,821	5.47	3.8	4	3	1	6.38	2.1
	People's	4,289	3.00	1.0	2	1	1	2.13	2.1
	Liberal Initiative	3,097	2.17	0.4	1	1	0	2.13	0.0
	Unitary Democratic Coalition	2,543	1.78	0.2	0	0	0	0.00	0.0
	People-Animals-Nature	2,323	1.62	0.3	1	0	1	0.00	2.1
	Left Bloc	1,586	1.11	0.3	0	0	0	0.00	0.0
	LIVRE	959	0.67	0.0	0	0	0	0.00	0.0
	Forward Madeira (PTP/MPT/RIR)	790	0.55	1.2	0	0	0	0.00	0.0
	National Democratic Alternative	691	0.48	0.1	0	0	0	0.00	0.0
	People's Monarchist	576	0.40	—N/a	—N/a	0	—N/a	0.00	—N/a
	New Right	487	0.34	—N/a	—N/a	0	—N/a	0.00	—N/a
Total valid		139,663	97.69	0.2	47	47	0	100.00	0.0
Blank ballots		715	0.50	0.0
Invalid ballots		2,581	1.81	0.2
Total		142,959	100.00
Registered voters/turnout		255,380	55.98	2.6
Sources:[82]

• 
  Most voted political force by municipality.

With the Social Democrats near absolute majority result, the party only needed one seat to form a majority, the preferred partner for a coalition would be CDS – People's Party (CDS–PP).^[83] On the day after election day, Miguel Albuquerque confirmed negotiations with CDS–PP were taking place and that a deal could be announced on the following day, 25 March.^[84] On 25 March, PSD and CDS–PP signed a coalition government deal, securing a majority of 24 seats in the regional assembly.^[85] After meeting with parties represented in the regional assembly, during 28 March, the Representative of the Republic, Ireneu Barreto, nominated Miguel Albuquerque as President of the Regional Government.^[86] The PSD/CDS–PP coalition government was sworn in to office on 15 April 2025.^[87]

On 8 May 2025, the regional assembly approved the PSD/CDS–PP coalition government with the votes in favour of PSD and CDS–PP; the votes against of PS, JPP and Chega; and with the abstention of IL.

2025 Motion of confidence Miguel Albuquerque (PSD)
Ballot →		8 May 2025
Required majority →		Simple
	Yes • PSD (23) • CDS–PP (1)	24 / 47
	No • JPP (11) • PS (8) • CH (3)	22 / 47
	Abstentions • IL (1)	1 / 47
	Absentees	0 / 47
Result →		Approved Y
Sources[88]