2023 Navarrese regional election

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Registered518,998 Increase 1.6%
Turnout334,493 (64.4%)
Decrease 4.1 pp
2023 Navarrese regional election
← 2019
28 May 2023
2027 →
All 50 seats in the Parliament of Navarre
26 seats needed for a majority
Opinion polls
Registered518,998 Increase 1.6%
Turnout334,493 (64.4%)
Decrease 4.1 pp
  First party Second party Third party
 
Leader Javier Esparza María Chivite Laura Aznal
Party UPN PSN–PSOE EH Bildu
Leader since 30 November 2014 19 October 2014 6 May 2022
Last election 15 seats (NA+)[a] 11 seats, 20.6% 7 seats, 14.5%
Seats won 15 11 9
Seat change Steady 0 Steady 0 Increase 2
Popular vote 92,392 68,247 56,535
Percentage 28.0% 20.7% 17.1%
Swing n/a Increase 0.1 pp Increase 2.6 pp
  Fourth party Fifth party Sixth party
 
Leader Uxue Barkos Javier García Begoña Alfaro
Party GBai PP Contigo/Zurekin
Leader since 3 October 2014 4 December 2022 3 November 2022
Last election 9 seats, 17.3% 2 seats (NA+)[a] 3 seats, 8.2%[b]
Seats won 7 3 3
Seat change Decrease 2 Increase 1 Steady 0
Popular vote 43,660 24,019 20,095
Percentage 13.2% 7.3% 6.1%
Swing Decrease 4.0 pp n/a Decrease 2.1 pp
President before election

María Chivite
PSN–PSOE

 Elected President

María Chivite
PSN–PSOE

The 2023 Navarrese regional election was held on 28 May 2023 to elect the 11th Parliament of the Chartered Community of Navarre. All 50 seats in the Parliament were up for election. It was held concurrently with regional elections in eleven other autonomous communities and local elections all throughout Spain.

The 2019–2023 term had been dominated by the impact and effects of the COVID-19 pandemic, which had focused most of the efforts of the new government of María Chivite. This period also saw a normalization of the relations between the Socialist Party of Navarre (PSN–PSOE) and the abertzale left, dominated by EH Bildu, with whom the Socialists agreed to pass laws and budgets. On the right, the Navarra Suma alliance between the Navarrese People's Union (UPN), the People's Party of Navarre (PP) and Citizens (Cs) broke up, with the former two engaging in a bitter fight for dominance of their political space as support for the latter collapsed throughout Spain.

The election saw UPN holding out in better shape than anticipated by opinion polls—some of which had predicted a close race with the PSN—but with right-from-centre parties being unable to increase their support from the 2019 election, stagnating at 20 seats. Further, the election saw the entry into parliament for the first time of far-right Vox, with 4.3% and 2 seats. EH Bildu emerged as the third largest political party ahead of Geroa Bai (GBai), whose support collapsed to 13.2% and 7 seats following four years in which it had been a junior coalition partner in government, whereas the alliance of Podemos and the Left (I–E) held out to its 3 seats with 6.1% of the vote.

As a result of the election, President Chivite was able to get re-elected to a second consecutive term in office, the first time a PSN regional president has been able to do so since 1987.

Electoral system

The Parliament of Navarre was the devolved, unicameral legislature of the Chartered Community of Navarre, having legislative power in regional matters as defined by the Spanish Constitution and the Reintegration and Enhancement of the Foral Regime of Navarre Law, as well as the ability to vote confidence in or withdraw it from a regional president.[1] Voting was on the basis of universal suffrage, which comprised all nationals over 18 years of age, registered in Navarre and in full enjoyment of their political rights. Amendments to the electoral law in 2022 abolished the "begged" or expat vote system (Spanish: Voto rogado), under which Spaniards abroad were required to apply for voting before being permitted to vote.[2] The expat vote system was attributed responsibility for a major decrease in the turnout of Spaniards abroad during the years it had been in force.[3]

The 50 members of the Parliament of Navarre were elected using the D'Hondt method and a closed list proportional representation, with a threshold of three percent of valid votes—which included blank ballots—being applied regionally.[4]

Election date

The term of the Parliament of Navarre expired four years after the date of its previous election, unless it was dissolved earlier. The election decree was required to be issued no later than the twenty-fifth day prior to the expiration date of parliament and published on the following day in the Official Gazette of Navarre (BON), with election day taking place on the fifty-fourth day from publication. The previous election was held on 26 May 2019, which meant that the legislature's term would have expired on 26 May 2023. The election decree was required to be published in the BON no later than 2 May 2023, with the election taking place on the fifty-fourth day from publication, setting the latest possible election date for the Parliament on 25 June 2023.[1][4][5]

The president had the prerogative to dissolve the Parliament of Navarre and call a snap election, provided that no motion of no confidence was in process, no nationwide election was due and some time requirements were met: namely, that dissolution did not occur either during the first legislative session or within the legislature's last year ahead of its scheduled expiry, nor before one year had elapsed since a previous dissolution under this procedure. In the event of an investiture process failing to elect a regional president within a three-month period from the election date, the Parliament was to be automatically dissolved and a fresh election called.[1]

The election to the Parliament of Navarre was officially triggered on 4 April 2023 after the publication of the election decree in the BON, setting the election date for 28 May and scheduling for the chamber to reconvene on 16 June.[6]

Parliamentary composition

The table below shows the composition of the parliamentary groups in the Parliament at the time of dissolution.[7]

Parliamentary composition in April 2023
Groups Parties Legislators
Seats Total
Sum Navarre Parliamentary Group UPN 15 20
CS 3
PP 2
Socialist Party of Navarre Parliamentary Group PSN–PSOE 11 11
Yes to the Future Parliamentary Group GSB/GSV 6 9
EAJ/PNV 3
EH Bildu Navarre Parliamentary Group Sortu 4 7
EA 3
Mixed Group Podemos 2 3
I–E (n) 1

Parties and candidates

The electoral law allowed for parties and federations registered in the interior ministry, coalitions and groupings of electors to present lists of candidates. Parties and federations intending to form a coalition ahead of an election were required to inform the relevant Electoral Commission within ten days of the election call, whereas groupings of electors needed to secure the signature of at least one percent of the electorate in Navarre, disallowing electors from signing for more than one list of candidates.[4][5]

Below is a list of the main parties and electoral alliances which contested the election:

Candidacy Parties and
alliances		 Leading candidate Ideology Previous result Gov. Ref.
Vote % Seats
UPN Javier Esparza Conservatism
Christian democracy
Regionalism
36.6%
[c]		 20 No [8]
[9]
[10]
CS Carlos Pérez-Nievas Liberalism No [11]
PP Javier García Conservatism
Christian democracy		 No [12]
[13]
[14]
PSN–PSOE
List
 María Chivite Social democracy 20.6% 11 Yes [15]
[16]
GBai
List
 Uxue Barkos Basque nationalism
Social democracy		 17.3% 9 Yes [17]
EH Bildu
List
 Laura Aznal Basque independence
Abertzale left
Socialism		 14.5% 7 No [18]
[19]
Contigo/
Zurekin
List
 Begoña Alfaro Left-wing populism
Direct democracy
Democratic socialism
8.2%
[b]		 3 Yes [20][21]
[22][23]
[24]
Vox
List
 Maite Nosti Right-wing populism
Ultranationalism
National conservatism		 1.3% 0 No [25]

There was debate on whether the Navarra Suma (NA+) alliance between the Navarrese People's Union (UPN), Citizens–Party of the Citizenry (Cs) and the People's Party (PP) would be renewed ahead of the 2023 election,[26] with some members within UPN advocating for their party to run under their own label instead while at most allowing some members from PP and Cs to be incorporated as independents within their lists.[27][28]

UPN suffered a split following a troubling vote in the Congress of Deputies on the issue of labour reform on 3 February 2022, when deputies Sergio Sayas and Carlos García Adanero broke party discipline and voted against the reform proposed by Pedro Sánchez's government, almost succeeding in bringing it down despite the UPN leadership having pledged its support to the law.[29] As a result, both Sayas and Adanero had their party membership suspended,[30][31] who then pledged to run on their own under a brand new platform.[32][33] This was materialized during an event held on 14 June 2022, when the platform—provisionally dubbed as "Navarre Platform" (Spanish: Plataforma Navarra)[34]—was publicly announced, with the support of former high-ranking UPN officers such as former regional Development minister Luis Zarraluqui or former mayor of Estella Begoña Ganuza, among others.[35][36][37] By the end of 2022, this platform had entered talks with the PP to evaluate the prospects of fielding a joint list to the regional election.[38][39]

Campaign

Election debates

2023 Navarrese regional election debates
Date Organisers Moderator(s)     P  Present[d]    S  Surrogate[e]    A  Absent invitee 
UPN CS PP PSN GBai EH Bildu C/Z Audience Ref.
12 May Cadena SER Javier Lorente P
Esparza		 P
Nievas		 P
García		 P
Chivite		 P
Barkos		 P
Aznal		 P
Alfaro		 — [40]
16 May Diario de Navarra Yulen Garmendia P
Esparza		 P
Nievas		 P
García		 P
Chivite		 P
Barkos		 P
Aznal		 P
Alfaro		 — [41]
18 May Navarra TV Roberto Cámara
Blanca Basiano		 P
Esparza		 P
Nievas		 P
García		 P
Chivite		 P
Barkos		 P
Aznal		 P
Alfaro		 TBD [42]

Opinion polls

The tables below list opinion polling results in reverse chronological order, showing the most recent first and using the dates when the survey fieldwork was done, as opposed to the date of publication. Where the fieldwork dates are unknown, the date of publication is given instead. The highest percentage figure in each polling survey is displayed with its background shaded in the leading party's colour. If a tie ensues, this is applied to the figures with the highest percentages. The "Lead" column on the right shows the percentage-point difference between the parties with the highest percentages in a poll.

Graphical summary

Local regression trend line of poll results from 26 May 2019 to 28 May 2023, with each line corresponding to a political party.

Voting intention estimates

The table below lists weighted voting intention estimates. Refusals are generally excluded from the party vote percentages, while question wording and the treatment of "don't know" responses and those not intending to vote may vary between polling organisations. When available, seat projections determined by the polling organisations are displayed below (or in place of) the percentages in a smaller font; 26 seats were required for an absolute majority in the Parliament of Navarre.

Color key:

  Poll conducted after legal ban on opinion polls

Voting preferences

The table below lists raw, unweighted voting preferences.

Victory preferences

The table below lists opinion polling on the victory preferences for each party in the event of a regional election taking place.

Victory likelihood

The table below lists opinion polling on the perceived likelihood of victory for each party in the event of a regional election taking place.

Results

← Summary of the 28 May 2023 Parliament of Navarre election results
Parties and alliances Popular vote Seats
Votes % ±pp Total +/−
Navarrese People's Union (UPN)1 92,39228.01n/a 15±0
Socialist Party of Navarre (PSN–PSOE) 68,24720.69+0.06 11±0
Basque Country Gather (EH Bildu) 56,53517.14+2.60 9+2
Yes to the Future (GBai) 43,66013.24−4.08 7−2
People's Party (PP)1 24,0197.28n/a 3+1
We Can–United Left–Assembly–Green Alliance–Greens Equo (Contigo/Zurekin)2 20,0956.09−1.66 3±0
Vox (Vox) 14,1974.30+3.00 2+2
For a Fairer World (PUM+J) 1,7400.53New 0±0
Citizens–Party of the Citizenry (CS)1 1,2730.39n/a 0−3
Sunflower (Eguzkilore) 1,2610.38New 0±0
Foral Will (Voluntad Foral) 5820.18New 0±0
Blank ballots 5,8601.78+1.00
Total 329,861 50±0
Valid votes 329,86198.62−0.76
Invalid votes 4,6321.38+0.76
Votes cast / turnout 334,49364.45−4.08
Abstentions 184,50535.55+4.08
Registered voters 518,998
Sources[43]
Footnotes:
Popular vote
UPN
 
 28.01%
PSN–PSOE
 
 20.69%
EH Bildu
 
 17.14%
GBai
 
 13.24%
PP
 
 7.28%
Contigo/Zurekin
 
 6.09%
Vox
 
 4.30%
Others
 
 1.47%
Blank ballots
 
 1.78%
Seats
UPN
 
 30.00%
PSN–PSOE
 
 22.00%
EH Bildu
 
 18.00%
GBai
 
 14.00%
PP
 
 6.00%
Contigo/Zurekin
 
 6.00%
Vox
 
 4.00%

Aftermath

Notes

References

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