2020 United States Senate special election in Arizona

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The 2020 United States Senate special election in Arizona was held on November 3, 2020, following the death in office of incumbent Republican U.S. Senator John McCain on August 25, 2018. Governor Doug Ducey was required by Arizona law to appoint a Republican to fill the vacant seat until a special election winner could be sworn in.[1][2] On September 5, 2018, Ducey appointed former U.S. Senator Jon Kyl to fill McCain's seat. However, Kyl announced he would resign on December 31, 2018.[3]

Quick facts Nominee, Party ...
2020 United States Senate special election in Arizona
← 2016
November 3, 2020
2022 →
 
Nominee Mark Kelly Martha McSally
Party Democratic Republican
Popular vote 1,716,467 1,637,661
Percentage 51.16% 48.81%
Kelly:      50–60%      60–70%      70–80%      80–90%      >90%
McSally:      50–60%      60–70%      70–80%      80–90%      >90%
Tie:      50%      No data
U.S. senator before election

Martha McSally[a]
Republican

 Elected U.S. Senator

Mark Kelly
Democratic

Close

On December 18, 2018, Ducey announced that outgoing U.S. Representative Martha McSally would be appointed to fill the seat following Kyl's resignation.[4] McSally was sworn in as the state's junior U.S. Senator on January 3, 2019, less than two months after she was defeated by Democrat Kyrsten Sinema for Arizona's Class 1 U.S. Senate seat.[5] McSally ran to complete the term, defeating skincare executive Daniel McCarthy in the Republican primary. She faced former astronaut Mark Kelly,[6] who ran uncontested in the Democratic primary. Primary elections took place on August 4, 2020.[7]

Once a reliably Republican state, Arizona trended more purple in the late 2010s. Kelly significantly outraised McSally and led by about 5% in the average poll leading up to Election Day.

Kelly defeated McSally by a margin of 2.4% on election night, thereby flipping the seat Democratic. As a result, he outperformed Joe Biden in the concurrent presidential election, who defeated President Donald Trump by a margin of 0.3% in the state, but underperformed his polling average. Kelly became the first Democrat to win the Class 3 Senate seat since Carl Hayden won his last term in 1962.[8]

Kelly was sworn in on December 2, 2020, marking the first time since 1953 that Democrats held both of Arizona’s Senate seats.

Interim appointments

Appointees

Potential candidates not appointed

Republican primary

Incumbent McSally faced one challenger: Daniel McCarthy, a skincare company executive. McCarthy's independent wealth was expected to set up a bruising and expensive primary campaign; however, McSally won the primary in a landslide.[16]

Candidates

Nominee

Eliminated in primary

  • Sean Lyons (as a write-in candidate)[19]
  • Daniel McCarthy, skincare company executive[20]

Withdrawn

Declined

Endorsements

Martha McSally

U.S. presidents

State officials

Individuals

Organizations

Primary results

Results by county:
  McSally—80–90%
  McSally—70–80%
  McSally—60–70%
More information Party, Candidate ...
Republican primary results[48]
Party Candidate Votes %
Republican Martha McSally (incumbent) 551,119 75.2%
Republican Daniel McCarthy 181,551 24.8%
Republican Sean Lyons (write-in) 210 nil
Total votes 732,880 100.0%
Close

Democratic primary

Candidates

Nominee

Eliminated in primary

  • Bo "Heir Archy" Garcia (as a write-in candidate)[19]

Withdrew

Declined

Endorsements

Mark Kelly (D)

U.S. presidents

U.S. senators

U.S. representatives

Organizations

Primary results

More information Party, Candidate ...
Democratic primary results[48]
Party Candidate Votes %
Democratic Mark Kelly 665,620 99.9%
Democratic Bo Garcia (write-in) 451 0.1%
Total votes 666,071 100.0%
Close

Libertarian primary

Neither one of the write-in candidates received enough votes to secure the Libertarian nomination in the general election.

Write-in candidates

Eliminated in primary

Primary results

More information Party, Candidate ...
Libertarian primary results[48]
Party Candidate Votes %
Libertarian Barry Hess (write-in) 329 76.5%
Libertarian Alan White (write-in) 101 23.5%
Total votes 430 100.0%
Close

Other candidates

General election write-in candidates

Declared

Republican

Democratic

Other

  • Christopher Beckett, veteran (Independent)[81]
  • William "Will" Decker (Independent)[81]
  • Matthew "Doc" Dorchester (Libertarian)[81]
  • Nicholas N. Glenn, Navy veteran and aerospace engineer (Independent Republican)[81]
  • Mathew Haupt (Independent)[81]
  • Benjamin Rodriguez (Independent)[81]
  • Joshua Rodriguez (Unity)[81]
  • Frank Saenz (Independent)[81]
  • Jim Stevens (Independent)[81]

Withdrawn

General election

Debates

Predictions

More information Source, Ranking ...
Source Ranking As of
The Cook Political Report[84] Lean D (flip) October 29, 2020
Inside Elections[85] Tilt D (flip) October 28, 2020
Sabato's Crystal Ball[86] Lean D (flip) November 2, 2020
Daily Kos[87] Lean D (flip) October 30, 2020
Politico[88] Lean D (flip) November 2, 2020
RCP[89] Tossup October 23, 2020
DDHQ[90] Likely D (flip) November 3, 2020
538[91] Likely D (flip) November 2, 2020
Economist[92] Lean D (flip) November 2, 2020
Close

Post-primary endorsements

Martha McSally (R)

Federal officials

Newspapers

Mark Kelly (D)

Federal officials

Organizations

Unions

Newspapers

Individuals

Polling

Graphical summary

%support01020304050602/13/20197/7/20209/15/202010/20/2020McSallyKellyOther/UndecidedOpinion polling for the 2020 United States S...
View source data.

Aggregate polls

More information Mark Kelly vs. Martha McSally, Source of poll aggregation ...
Mark Kelly vs. Martha McSally
Source of poll aggregation Dates administered Dates updated Mark Kelly Martha McSally Margin
270 to Win[105] November 2, 2020 November 3, 2020 49.8% 44.8% Kelly +5.0
Real Clear Politics[106] November 1, 2020 November 3, 2020 50.5% 44.8% Kelly +5.7
Average 50.2% 44.8% Kelly +5.4
Close
More information Polling, Poll source ...
Close
Hypothetical polling

with Daniel McCarthy and Mark Kelly

More information Poll source, Date(s) administered ...
Poll source Date(s)
administered		 Sample
size[b]		 Margin
of error		 Daniel
McCarthy (R)		 Mark
Kelly (D)		 Other /
Undecided
Change Research[216][L] June 20–23, 2020 946 (LV) ± 3.2% 44% 50% 6%
Close

with Ruben Gallego

More information Poll source, Date(s) administered ...
Poll source Date(s)
administered		 Sample
size[b]		 Margin
of error		 Martha
McSally (R)		 Ruben
Gallego (D)		 Other /
Undecided
OH Predictive Insights[215] February 12–13, 2019 600 (LV) ± 4.0% 49% 41% 10%[o]
Close

on whether McSally deserves to be re-elected

More information Poll source, Date(s) administered ...
Poll source Date(s)
administered		 Sample
size[b]		 Margin
of error		 Yes No Other /
Undecided
Fabrizio Ward/AARP[213] July 29–31, 2019 600 (LV) ± 4.0% 39% 45% 16%[cn]
Public Policy Polling[217] January 24–25, 2019 682 (V) – 40% 54% 6%
Close

with generic Republican and generic Democrat

More information Poll source, Date(s) administered ...
Poll source Date(s)
administered		 Sample
size[b]		 Margin
of error		 Generic
Republican		 Generic
Democrat		 Other /
Undecided
OH Predictive Insights[137] October 4–8, 2020 608 (LV) ± 4.0% 45% 45% 10%[co]
Targoz Market Research/PollSmart[218] September 23 – October 2, 2020 1,045 (LV) ± 3.0% 44% 42% 14%[cp]
Data For Progress[152][M] September 15–22, 2020 481 (LV) ± 4.4% 45% 42% 15%[au]
Siena College/NYT Upshot[162] September 10–15, 2020 653 (LV) ± 4.1% 44% 50% 6%[cq]
Emerson College[173] August 8–10, 2020 661 (LV) ± 3.8% 41% 46% 13%[cr]
OnMessage Inc. (R)[176][I] August 2–4, 2020 400 (LV) ± 4.9% 43% 43% 14%[cs]
Climate Nexus[219] Feb 11–15, 2020 539 (RV) ± 4.3% 44% 44% 12%[ct]
Fabrizio, Lee & Associates (R)[206][G] Jan 22–24, 2020 1,000 (LV) ± 3.1% 49% 45% 6%[cu]
OH Predictive Insights[208] December 3–4, 2019 628 (LV) ± 3.9% 44% 44% 11%[cv]
Fabrizio Ward/AARP[213] July 29–31, 2019 600 (LV) ± 4.0% 42% 43% 14%[cw]
OH Predictive Insights[220] February 12–13, 2019 600 (LV) ± 4.0% 44% 39% 17%[cx]
Close

Results

More information Party, Candidate ...
2020 United States Senate Special election in Arizona[221]
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
Democratic Mark Kelly 1,716,467 51.16% +10.41%
Republican Martha McSally (incumbent) 1,637,661 48.81% −4.90%
Write-in 1,189 0.03% -0.03%
Total votes 3,355,317 100.0%
Democratic gain from Republican
Close

By county

More information By county, County ...
Close

By congressional district

Kelly won five of nine congressional districts.[223]

More information District, McSally ...
District McSally Kelly Representative
1st 48% 52% Tom O'Halleran
2nd 44% 56% Ann Kirkpatrick
3rd 35% 65% Raúl Grijalva
4th 67% 33% Paul Gosar
5th 56% 44% Andy Biggs
6th 52% 48% David Schweikert
7th 24% 76% Ruben Gallego
8th 57% 43% Debbie Lesko
9th 38% 62% Greg Stanton
Close

See also

Notes

  1. [a]
    In December 2018, McSally was appointed by Governor Doug Ducey to fill the vacancy caused by the death of Senator John McCain and the resignation of Senator Jon Kyl.
  2. [b]
    Key:
    A – all adults
    RV – registered voters
    LV – likely voters
    V – unclear
  3. [c]
    "Some other candidate" with 3%; would not vote with 0%; "Undecided/Refused" with 1%
  4. [d]
    "Refused" and Undecided with 1%; Did not vote with 0%
  5. [e]
    "Other" and Undecided with 1%
  6. [f]
    "Other candidate or write-in" with 0%
  7. [g]
    "Someone else" with 2%
  8. [h]
    "Refused" with 4%; "Other" with 1%; Undecided with 2%
  9. [i]
    "Someone else" and would not vote with 0%; "Undecided/Refused" with 6%
  10. [j]
    "Some other" with 3.5%; "Other" with 7.5%; Undecided with 2%
  11. [k]
    "None of these" and Undecided with 2%; "Other" with 1%
  12. [l]
    "Some other candidate" with 4%; Undecided with 5%
  13. [m]
    Undecided with 6%
  14. [n]
    "Some other candidate" with 2%; would not vote with 0%; Undecided with 3%
  15. [o]
    Undecided with 10%
  16. [p]
    "Refused" with 1%; Undecided with 3%
  17. [q]
    "Someone else" and would not vote with 2%; Undecided with 6%
  18. [r]
    Undecided with 2%
  19. [s]
    "Other" and "Refused" with 0%; Undecided with 3%
  20. [t]
    "Some other candidate" with 3%; would not vote with 0%; "Undecided/Refused" with 2%
  21. [u]
    "Some other candidate" and Undecided with 5%
  22. [v]
    Additional data sourced from FiveThirtyEight
  23. [w]
    Standard VI response
  24. [x]
    "Some other candidate" with 6%; Undecided with 9%
  25. [y]
    Results generated with high Democratic turnout model
  26. [z]
    Results generated with high Republican turnout model
  27. [aa]
    "Refused" with 3%; "Other" with 2%; Undecided with 5%
  28. [ab]
    "Someone else" with 2%; Undecided with 5%
  29. [ac]
    "Some other candidate" and Undecided with 4%; would not vote with 0%
  30. [ad]
    "No one" with 1%; "Other" with 0%; Undecided with 4%
  31. [ae]
    With a likely voter turnout model featuring higher turnout than in the 2016 presidential election
  32. [af]
    With a likely voter turnout model featuring lower turnout than in the 2016 presidential election
  33. [ag]
    "Other" with 3%; Undecided with 4%
  34. [ah]
    "Refused" with 0%; Undecided with 5%
  35. [ai]
    "Some other candidate" with 4%; would not vote with 0%; "Undecided/Prefer not to answer" with 4%
  36. [aj]
    Undecided with 7%
  37. [ak]
    Undecided with 4%
  38. [al]
    "Refused" with 2%; "Other" with 1%; Undecided with 4%
  39. [am]
    "Some other candidate" with 1%; "Undecided/Refused" with 6%
  40. [an]
    Would not vote and Undecided with 3%
  41. [ao]
    Would not vote with 1%; "Someone else" with 0%; "Undecided/Refused" with 10%
  42. [ap]
    Undecided with 5%
  43. [aq]
    Overlapping sample with the previous Morning Consult poll, but more information available regarding sample size
  44. [ar]
    "Someone else" with 4%; Undecided with 6%
  45. [as]
    "Other" and "Refused" with 2%; Undecided with 7%
  46. [at]
    "Someone else" and Undecided with 5%
  47. [au]
    Undecided with 15%
  48. [av]
    Would not vote with 1%; Undecided with 5%
  49. [aw]
    "Neither" with 2%; would not vote with 0%; "other" with no voters; Undecided with 1%
  50. [ax]
    Overlapping sample with the previous and subsequent Morning Consult polls, but more information available regarding sample size
  51. [ay]
    "Not sure/prefer not to answer" with 4%; "Some other candidate" with 3%; would not vote with 1%
  52. [az]
    "Another Third Party/Write-in" with 2%; Undecided with 11%
  53. [ba]
    "Other" with 0%; Undecided with 4%
  54. [bb]
    Would not vote with 1%; "Someone else" with 0%; "Undecided/Refused" with 7%
  55. [bc]
    "Someone else" with 4%; Undecided with 9%
  56. [bd]
    "Neither/Another Party" with 4%; "Undecided/Don't know/Refused" with 16%
  57. [be]
    Undecided with 9%
  58. [bf]
    "Someone else" with 3%; Undecided with 6%
  59. [bg]
    "Refused" with 1%; Undecided with 6%
  60. [bh]
    "Someone else" with 0%; Undecided with 7%
  61. [bi]
    Would not vote with 1%; Undecided with 3%
  62. [bj]
    "Another Third Party/Write-in" with 1%; Undecided with 7%
  63. [bk]
    "Someone else" with 4%; Undecided with 7%
  64. [bl]
    "Other" and would not vote with 1%; Undecided with 3%
  65. [bm]
    "Other" and would not vote with 1%; Undecided with 4%
  66. [bn]
    "Third party/write-in" with 1%; Undecided with 11%
  67. [bo]
    Would not vote with 2%; Undecided with 6%
  68. [bp]
    "Someone else" with 5%; Undecided with 8%
  69. [bq]
    "Refused" with 1%; Undecided with 8%
  70. [br]
    "No one" with 10%
  71. [bs]
    "None of the above/neither" with 3%; "other" with 0%; Undecided with 4%
  72. [bt]
    "Third party/write-in" with 3%; Undecided with 10%
  73. [bu]
    "Someone else" with 4%; Undecided with 8%
  74. [bv]
    "Other" with 1%; Undecided with 5%
  75. [bw]
    "Another candidate" with 6%; Undecided with 5%
  76. [bx]
    Undecided with 2%; would not vote with 1%
  77. [by]
    Undecided with 9%; "Someone else" with 3%; would not vote with 0%
  78. [bz]
    Undecided with 5%; "Refused" with 1%
  79. [ca]
    Undecided with 5.2%; "Other" with 1.8%; "refused" with 0.4%
  80. [cb]
    Undecided with 12%
  81. [cc]
    Undecided with 3%; "Would not vote" with 0%
  82. [cd]
    Undecided with 14%; "Third party/write-in" with 3%
  83. [ce]
    Undecided with 14%; "Another candidate" and would not vote with 1%
  84. [cf]
    "Someone else" with 4%; unsure with 3%
  85. [cg]
    Undecided with 8%; "Other" with 3%; would not vote with 2%
  86. [ch]
    "Undecided/refused" with 5.8%; "some other candidate" with 1.8%
  87. [ci]
    "Refused" with 1%; Undecided with 7%
  88. [cj]
    "Refused" with 0%; Undecided with 9%
  89. [ck]
    "Refused" with 0%; Undecided with 13%
  90. [cl]
    Undecided with 9%; "Would not vote/would not vote for US Senate" with 2%
  91. [cm]
    "Refused" with 1%; Undecided with 10%
  92. [cn]
    Undecided with 14%, refused with 2%
  93. [co]
    "Other" with 6%; "Refused" with 0%; Undecided with 4%
  94. [cp]
    "Another candidate" with 5%; Undecided with 9%
  95. [cq]
    "Undecided/Refused" with 6%
  96. [cr]
    Undecided with 13%
  97. [cs]
    Undecided with 14%
  98. [ct]
    "Neither candidate or other candidate" with 12%
  99. [cu]
    "Undecided/Don't know/Refused" with 6%
  100. [cv]
    "Other" with 5%; "Refused" with 0%; Undecided with 6%
  101. [cw]
    "Undecided/Don't know/Refused" with 14%
  102. [cx]
    "Other" with 10%; "Refused" with 0%; Undecided with 7%

Partisan clients

  1. [A]
    The Justice Collaborative Project is an affiliate of the Tides Centre, a liberal fiscal sponsorship provider
  2. [B]
    The American Greatness PAC, this poll's sponsor, is pro-Trump.
  3. [C]
    This poll's sponsor, Democrats for Education Reform, exclusively supports Democratic candidates.
  4. [D]
    Poll sponsored by the American Action Network, a conservative advocacy group.
  5. [E]
    Poll sponsored by the Defend Students Action Fund.
  6. [F]
    Poll sponsored by the Human Rights Campaign which has endorsed Biden prior to this poll's sampling period.
  7. [G]
    Poll sponsored by the McSally campaign
  8. [H]
    Poll sponsored by AARP.
  9. [I]
    Heritage Action is the sister organization of the Heritage Foundation, which exclusively endorses Republican candidates
  10. [J]
    This poll's sponsor is the American Principles Project, a 501 that supports the Republican Party.
  11. [K]
    Polling was sponsored by OANN.
  12. [L]
    This poll's sponsor, 314 Action, had endorsed Kelly prior to the sampling period
  13. [M]
    Poll sponsored by the Defend Students Action Fund.

References

Further reading

External links

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