2022 United States Senate election in Arizona
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The 2022 United States Senate election in Arizona was held on November 8, 2022, to elect a member of the United States Senate to represent the state of Arizona.
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November 8, 2022
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   Kelly: 40–50% 50–60% 60–70% 70–80% 80–90% >90% Masters: 40–50% 50–60% 60–70% 70–80% 80–90% >90% Tie: 40–50% No votes | |||||||||||||||||
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The seat was previously held by Republican John McCain, who won his final term in 2016 and died from glioblastoma on August 25, 2018. Governor Doug Ducey appointed former U.S. Senator Jon Kyl to fill the seat. Kyl resigned at the end of that year and Ducey replaced him with Martha McSally, who then lost to Democrat Mark Kelly in 2020.
Primaries in Arizona took place on August 2, 2022. Kelly won renomination without opposition, while venture capitalist Blake Masters won the Republican nomination against a large field of candidates. Although Arizona typically leans Republican, Kelly led Masters by low single digits in aggregate polling. Kelly held a significant fundraising advantage until many Republican-aligned groups began spending to assist Masters in the final weeks of the campaign.[1] On November 1, Libertarian nominee Marc Victor dropped out of the race and endorsed Masters.[2][3][4]
Kelly won re-election on his first full term in office, defeating Masters by a comfortable margin of about 5 points.[5] This was the first time Democrats won a full term to this seat since 1962. The 2022 race was competitive and seen as crucial to determining party control of the U.S. Senate; with Kelly's victory in Arizona and a Democratic victory in Nevada, in addition to a Democratic gain in Pennsylvania, it was projected on November 12 that the Democratic caucus would retain control of the Senate in the 118th United States Congress.[6][7] Masters conceded the race to Kelly on November 15, 2022.[8]
Democratic primary
Candidates
Nominee
- Mark Kelly, incumbent U.S. Senator[9][10]
Endorsements
Mark Kelly
U.S. executive branch officials
- Miles Taylor, former chief of staff to the U.S. Secretary of Homeland Security (2019) (Forward)[11]
- Christine Todd Whitman, former administrator of the Environmental Protection Agency (2001–2003) and former governor of New Jersey (1994–2001) (Forward)[11]
U.S. attorneys
- Paul K. Charlton, former United States attorney for the District of Arizona (2001–2007) (Republican) [12]
Local officials
- John Giles, mayor of Mesa (2014–2025) (Republican)[12]
Organizations
Results
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Democratic | Mark Kelly (incumbent) | 589,400 | 100.0% | |
| Total votes | 589,400 | 100.0% | ||
Republican primary
Candidates
Nominee
- Blake Masters, former president of the Thiel Foundation and former chief operating officer of Thiel Capital[26]
Eliminated in primary
- Mark Brnovich, Arizona attorney general[27]
- Jim Lamon, solar power businessman[28]
- Mick McGuire, retired U.S. Air Force major general and former adjutant general of the Arizona National Guard[29]
- Justin Olson, member of the Arizona Corporation Commission[30]
Did not file
Declined
- Kirk Adams, former chief of staff to Governor Doug Ducey and former Speaker of the Arizona House of Representatives[33]
- Andy Biggs, U.S. representative for Arizona's 5th congressional district[34][35]
- Doug Ducey, outgoing governor of Arizona[36]
- Kari Lake, former KSAZ-TV news anchor (ran for governor)[37]
- Jack McCain, veteran and son of former U.S. Senator John McCain[38]
- Martha McSally, former U.S. senator from Arizona (2019–2020)
- Kelli Ward, chair of the Arizona Republican Party, former state senator, and candidate for the U.S. Senate in 2016 and 2018[39]
- Kimberly Yee, state treasurer of Arizona (ran for re-election)[40][41]
Endorsements
Mark Brnovich
Individuals
- Sean Hannity, talk show host and conservative political commentator[42]
- Mark Levin, lawyer and host of Life, Liberty & Levin[43][44][42]
Newspapers
Jim Lamon
U.S. executive branch officials
- Jeff DeWit, chief financial officer of NASA (2018–2020) and state treasurer of Arizona (2015–2018)[46]
- Thomas Homan, acting director of the U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement (2017–2018)[46]
- Mark A. Morgan, acting commissioner of U.S. Customs and Border Protection (2019–2021) and chief of the U.S. Border Patrol (2016–2017)[46]
- Keith Schiller, director of Oval Office Operations (2017)[46]
- Matthew Whitaker, acting U.S. attorney general (2018–2019)[46]
- Chad Wolf, acting U.S. secretary of Homeland Security (2019–2021)[46]
Statewide officials
- Ken Bennett, secretary of state of Arizona (2009–2015)[46]
State legislators
- Judy Burges, state representative from the 12th district (2021–2023) and state senator from the 22nd district (2012–2019)[46]
- Frank Carroll, state representative from the 22nd district (2019–2023)[46]
- David Livingston, state senator (2019–2023) and state representative (2013–2019), (2023-Present) from the 22nd district[46]
- Kelly Townsend, state senator (2021–2023) and state representative (2013–2021) from the 16th district[46]
Individuals
- Brandon Judd, president of the National Border Patrol Council[46]
Organizations
- Arizona Conference of Police and Sheriffs[46]
- Arizona Police Association (APA) [47]
- Conservative Political Action Coalition (CPAC)[48]
- Glendale Law Enforcement Association[46]
- Grassroot Grandmas[46]
- National Association of Police Organizations[46]
- National Border Patrol Council[46]
Former[clarification needed]
- Richard Grenell, U.S. Ambassador to Germany (2018–2020)[49] (switched endorsement to Blake Masters)
Blake Masters
U.S. executive branch officials
- Richard Grenell, U.S. Ambassador to Germany (2018–2020)[50]
- David M. McIntosh, director of the Domestic Policy Council (1987–1988) and U.S. representative from Indiana's 2nd congressional district (1995–2001)[51]
- Robert C. O'Brien, U.S. National Security Advisor (2019–2021)[52]
- Kash Patel, chief of staff to the acting U.S. Secretary of Defense[50]
- Donald Trump, 45th president of the United States (2017–2021)[53]
U.S. senators
- Josh Hawley, Missouri (2019–present)[54]
U.S. representatives
- Jim Banks, Indiana's 3rd congressional district (2017–2025)[55]
- Madison Cawthorn, North Carolina's 11th congressional district (2021–2023)[56]
- Matt Gaetz, Florida's 1st congressional district (2017–2024)[55]
- Marjorie Taylor Greene, Georgia's 14th congressional district (2021–2026)[57]
Individuals
- Tucker Carlson, host of Tucker Carlson Tonight and conservative political commentator[58]
- Peter Thiel, venture capitalist[59]
- Susie Wiles, political consultant and advisor to Donald Trump[60]
Organizations
Rejected by candidate
- Andrew Anglin, neo-Nazi and founder of The Daily Stormer[63][64]
Justin Olson
Organizations
- Stand for Health Freedom[65]
Polling
Aggregate polls
| Source of poll aggregation |
Dates administered |
Dates updated |
Mark Brnovich |
Jim Lamon |
Blake Masters |
Michael McGuire |
Justin Olson |
Undecided [a] |
Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Real Clear Politics[66] | July 27 – August 1, 2022 | August 2, 2022 | 14.5% | 22.0% | 37.0% | 8.5% | 3.3% | 17.7% | Masters +15.0 |
Graphical summary
View source data.
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[b] |
Margin of error |
Mark Brnovich |
Jim Lamon |
Blake Masters |
Michael McGuire |
Justin Olson |
Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| The Trafalgar Group (R)[67] | July 30 – August 1, 2022 | 1,064 (LV) | ± 2.9% | 16% | 24% | 39% | 7% | 4% | – | 9% |
| Emerson College[68] | July 28–30, 2022 | 600 (LV) | ± 3.9% | 14% | 22% | 40% | 12% | 3% | – | 9% |
| Rasmussen Reports[69] | July 27–28, 2022 | 710 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 16% | 19% | 31% | 10% | 3% | 6% | 15% |
| OH Predictive Insights[70] | July 27, 2022 | 502 (LV) | ± 4.4% | 12% | 21% | 36% | 5% | 3% | – | 22% |
| Battleground Connect (R)[71] | July 26–27, 2022 | 800 (LV) | ± 3.7% | 16% | 30% | 28% | 8% | 6% | – | 12% |
| The Trafalgar Group (R)[72] | July 25–27, 2022 | 1,071 (LV) | ± 2.9% | 15% | 27% | 35% | 8% | 6% | – | 10% |
| Battleground Connect (R)[73] | July 17–18, 2022 | 800 (LV) | ± 3.7% | 16% | 33% | 28% | 7% | 2% | – | 14% |
| Cygnal (R)[74] | July 12–13, 2022 | 419 (LV) | ± 4.8% | 18% | 20% | 30% | 5% | 2% | – | 25% |
| Battleground Connect (R)[75] | July 7–9, 2022 | 800 (LV) | ± 3.7% | 16% | 29% | 27% | 4% | – | – | 24% |
| HighGround Public Affairs (R)[76] | July 2–7, 2022 | 400 (LV) | ± 4.9% | 13% | 14% | 23% | 5% | 2% | – | 44% |
| Alloy Analytics (R)/J.L. Partners[77] | July 5–6, 2022 | 500 (LV) | ± 4.4% | 10% | 14% | 26% | 5% | 0% | – | 45% |
| OH Predictive Insights[78] | June 30 – July 2, 2022 | 515 (LV) | ± 4.3% | 14% | 18% | 25% | 6% | 2% | – | 35% |
| Public Policy Polling (D)[79] | June 28, 2022 | 595 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 15% | 10% | 29% | 5% | – | – | 41% |
| The Trafalgar Group (R)[80] | June 7–9, 2022 | 1,077 (LV) | ± 2.9% | 24% | 17% | 29% | 4% | 4% | – | 22% |
| Data Orbital (R)[81] | June 1–3, 2022 | 550 (LV) | ± 4.3% | 18% | 20% | 15% | – | – | 12% | 36% |
| Fabrizio Lee (R)[82][A] | May 17–18, 2022 | 800 (LV) | ± 3.5% | 18% | 18% | 22% | 7% | 2% | – | 34% |
| Cygnal (R)[83][B] | April 28–30, 2022 | – (LV) | – | 19% | 20% | 19% | 7% | 2% | – | 33% |
| The Trafalgar Group (R)[84] | April 25–28, 2022 | 1,064 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 24% | 25% | 19% | 8% | 3% | – | 21% |
| McLaughlin & Associates (R)[85][C] | April 21–24, 2022 | – (LV) | – | 22% | 25% | 16% | 6% | – | – | 31% |
| OH Predictive Insights[86] | April 4–5, 2022 | 500 (LV) | ± 4.4% | 21% | 16% | 9% | 6% | 3% | – | 45% |
| Data Orbital (R)[87] | April 1–3, 2022 | 550 (LV) | ± 4.3% | 20% | 26% | 10% | 7% | 4% | – | 33% |
| HighGround Public Affairs (R)[88] | March 26–27, 2022 | 264 (LV) | ± 6.0% | 11% | 10% | 6% | 4% | – | 8% | 61% |
| Fabrizio Lee (R)[89][A] | March 13–14, 2022 | 800 (LV) | ± 3.5% | 14% | 14% | 16% | 3% | 1% | – | 52% |
| Alloy Analytics (R)/J.L. Partners[90] | March 9–12, 2022 | 433 (LV) | ± 4.7% | 20% | 15% | 15% | 3% | 1% | – | 45% |
| Data Orbital (R)[87] | March 2022 | – (LV) | – | 23% | 17% | 14% | 4% | 5% | – | 37% |
| Data Orbital (R)[87] | February 11–13, 2022 | 300 (LV) | ± 5.7% | 22% | 17% | 15% | 5% | 5% | – | 37% |
| co/efficient (R)[91] | February 6–8, 2022 | 755 (LV) | ± 3.6% | 17% | 13% | 12% | 3% | 1% | 11% | 44% |
| OH Predictive Insights[92] | January 11–13, 2022 | 302 (RV) | ± 5.6% | 25% | 7% | 6% | 11% | 4% | – | 47% |
| OH Predictive Insights[93] | November 1–8, 2021 | 252 (RV) | ± 6.2% | 27% | 5% | 9% | 12% | 2% | – | 46% |
| Fabrizio Lee (R)[94][A] | October 26–28, 2021 | 800 (LV) | ± 3.5% | 26% | 4% | 14% | 2% | 2% | <1%[c] | 52% |
| OnMessage Inc. (R)[95][D] | September 9–12, 2021 | 500 (LV) | ± 4.4% | 41% | 5% | 7% | 4% | – | – | 43% |
| OH Predictive Insights[96] | September 7–12, 2021 | 311 (RV) | ± 5.6% | 27% | 3% | 6% | 14% | – | – | 51% |
| Fabrizio Lee (R)[94][A] | August 4–8, 2021 | 800 (LV) | ± 3.5% | 29% | 7% | 5% | 3% | – | <1%[c] | 56% |
| HighGround Public Affairs (R)[97] | May 3–5, 2021 | 400 (LV) | ± 4.9% | 28% | – | 1% | 1% | – | – | 61% |
Hypothetical polling
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[b] |
Margin of error |
Kirk Adams |
Andy Biggs |
Mark Brnovich |
Doug Ducey |
Jim Lamon |
Blake Masters |
Michael McGuire |
Justin Olson |
Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| co/efficient (R)[91] | February 6–8, 2022 | 755 (LV) | ± 3.6% | – | – | 14% | 13% | 11% | 11% | 3% | 1% | 9% | 38% |
| OH Predictive Insights[92] | January 11–13, 2022 | 302 (RV) | ± 5.6% | – | – | 13% | 35% | 4% | 4% | 9% | 2% | – | 34% |
| WPA Intelligence (R)[98][E] | April 5–6, 2021 | 505 (LV) | ± 4.4% | – | 46% | – | 45% | – | – | – | – | – | 9% |
| OH Predictive Insights[99] | March 8–12, 2021 | 690 (RV) | ± 3.7% | 2%[d] | 27% | – | – | – | 2% | 3% | – | – | 67% |
| 6%[e] | 26% | – | – | – | 2% | 10% | – | – | 56% | ||||
| Data Orbital (R)[100][F] | February 17–19, 2021 | 600 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 2% | 36% | – | – | 1% | 1% | 3% | – | 4% | 53% |
Results
Masters
- 30–40%
- 40–50%
Lamon
- 30–40%
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Republican | Blake Masters | 327,198 | 40.24% | |
| Republican | Jim Lamon | 228,467 | 28.10% | |
| Republican | Mark Brnovich | 144,092 | 17.72% | |
| Republican | Michael McGuire | 71,100 | 8.75% | |
| Republican | Justin Olson | 41,985 | 5.16% | |
| Write-in | 226 | 0.03% | ||
| Total votes | 813,068 | 100.0% | ||
Libertarian primary
General election
In what was initially expected to be one of the most widely contested elections in the nation, Kelly amassed a massive fundraising advantage over Masters, raising a record $75 million compared to Masters's $12 million.[103] Due to the Supreme Court's Dobbs v. Jackson Women's Health Organization decision, which reversed Roe v. Wade, Kelly spent the campaign heavily attacking Masters over his anti-abortion stance, which was seen as hurting Masters especially among women voters. He also attacked Masters's support for privatizing Social Security, as Arizona has many retired seniors who use the program. Masters's claim that the 2020 presidential election was stolen also hurt him among voters.[104] Steven J. Law, the leader of a Republican-aligned super PAC, said that Masters "had scored the worst focus group results of any candidate he had ever seen," and cancelled all of its Arizona television advertisements supporting Masters to divert money to other races.[105]
With the limited amount of money he had, Masters attempted to portray Kelly as weak on illegal immigration, supportive of spending programs that caused inflation, and too supportive of President Joe Biden. In the final weeks of the campaign, Republican groups increased the amount of money they were spending on the race and polls began to tighten, and many news outlets moved the race from lean Democrat to tossup. However, in the end, Kelly relatively easily defeated Masters, which helped Democrats in retaining the Senate.[106] According to Ron Brownstein of CNN in 2023, Kelly won independent voters by double-digit margins, which contributed to Masters's defeat.[107]
Predictions
| Source | Ranking | As of |
|---|---|---|
| The Cook Political Report[108] | Tossup | October 27, 2022 |
| Inside Elections[109] | Tilt D | October 21, 2022 |
| Sabato's Crystal Ball[110] | Lean D | October 19, 2022 |
| Politico[111] | Tossup | October 27, 2022 |
| RCP[112] | Tossup | October 25, 2022 |
| Fox News[113] | Tossup | October 25, 2022 |
| DDHQ[114] | Lean D | October 25, 2022 |
| FiveThirtyEight[115] | Lean D | October 25, 2022 |
| The Economist[116] | Lean D | November 1, 2022 |
Debates
| No. | Date | Host | Moderator | Link | Democratic | Republican | Libertarian |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P Participant A Absent N Non-invitee I Invitee
W Withdrawn |
|||||||
| Mark Kelly | Blake Masters | Marc Victor | |||||
| 1 | October 6, 2022 | Arizona PBS | Ted Simons | [117] | P | P | P |
Endorsements
Mark Kelly (D)
U.S. executive branch officials
- Barack Obama, 44th president of the United States (2009–2017)[118]
- Miles Taylor, former chief of staff to the U.S. Secretary of Homeland Security (2019) (Forward)[11]
- Christine Todd Whitman, former administrator of the Environmental Protection Agency (2001–2003) and former governor of New Jersey (1994–2001) (Forward)[11]
U.S. senators
- Alex Padilla, U.S. senator from California (2021–present)[119]
- Kyrsten Sinema, U.S. senator from Arizona (2019–2025)[120]
U.S. representatives
- Raúl Grijalva, U.S. representative from Arizona's 3rd congressional district (2013–2025)[121]
U.S. attorneys
- Paul K. Charlton, former U.S. attorney for the District of Arizona (2001–2007) (Republican)[12]
State legislators
- Kirsten Engel, former state senator (2021) from the 10th district[121]
- Pete Hershberger, former state representative (2001–2008) from the 26th district (Republican)[122]
- Roberta Voss, former state representative (1997–2003) from the 19th district (Republican)[122]
Local officials
- Cathy Carlat, mayor of Peoria (2015–present) (Republican)[12]
- Jack Dillenberg, mayor of Jerome (2020–present) (Republican)[12]
- John Giles, mayor of Mesa (2014–2025) (Republican)[12]
- Donald Huish, mayor of Douglas (2016–present) (Republican)[12]
- Paul Johnson, former mayor of Phoenix (1990–1994) and Democratic candidate for governor of Arizona in 1994 and 1998 (Independent)[122]
- Craig McFarland, mayor of Casa Grande (2016–present) (Republican)[12]
- David Ortega, mayor of Scottsdale (2021–present) (Independent)[12]
- Regina Romero, mayor of Tucson, Arizona (2019–present)[121]
- Chip Wilson, mayor of Apache Junction (2018–present) (Republican)[12]
Individuals
- Jill Biden, First Lady of the United States[123]
- Camila Cabello, singer[124]
- Kerry Washington, actress[124]
Labor unions
- Communications Workers of America[125]
- International Federation of Professional and Technical Engineers[125]
- National Association of Social Workers[125]
- National Education Association[126]
- United Auto Workers[125]
- United Mine Workers of America[127]
Organizations
- 314 Action[13]
- BOLD Democrats[125]
- Brady Campaign[125]
- Common Defense PAC[125]
- End Citizens United[14]
- Equality Arizona[128]
- Feminist Majority PAC[15]
- Forward Party[129]
- Human Rights Campaign[130]
- J Street PAC[125]
- Jewish Dems[17]
- League of Conservation Voters[131]
- March On[18]
- MoveOn[125]
- NARAL Pro-Choice America[125]
- National Organization for Women[125]
- National Committee to Preserve Social Security and Medicare[125]
- Our Voice, Our Vote PAC[125]
- Planned Parenthood Action Fund[20]
- Population Connection Action Fund[21]
- Progressive Turnout Project[125]
- Renew America Movement[22]
- Serve America PAC[125]
- Sierra Club[132]
- Stonewall Democrats[125]
- Voter Protection Project[125]
- VoteVets.org[23]
Blake Masters (R)
U.S. executive branch officials
- Duke Buchan, U.S. Ambassador to Spain and Andorra (2018–2021)[133]
- Richard Grenell, former U.S. Ambassador to Germany (2018–2020)[50]
- David M. McIntosh, former director of the Domestic Policy Council (1987–1988) and former U.S. Representative from Indiana's 2nd congressional district (1995–2001)[51]
- Robert C. O'Brien, former U.S. National Security Advisor (2019–2021)[52]
- Kash Patel, former chief of staff to the Acting U.S. Secretary of Defense[50]
- Mike Pence, 48th vice president of the United States (2017–2021) and former governor of Indiana (2013–2017)[134]
- Matt Schlapp, White House Director of Political Affairs (2003–2005)[133]
- Mercedes Schlapp, White House Director of Strategic Communications (2017–2019)[133]
- Donald Trump, 45th president of the United States (2017–2021)[53]
- Chad Wolf, acting United States Secretary of Homeland Security (2019–2021), Under Secretary of Homeland Security for Strategy, Policy, and Plans (2019–2021) and Assistant Secretary of Homeland Security for Strategy, Plans, Analysis, and Risk (2019)[133]
U.S. senators
- Tom Cotton, U.S. senator from Arkansas (2015–present)[135]
- Ted Cruz, U.S. senator from Texas (2013–present)[136]
- Josh Hawley, U.S. senator from Missouri (2019–present) and former Missouri attorney general (2017–2019)[54]
- Rand Paul, U.S. senator from Kentucky (2011–present)[137]
- Rick Scott, U.S. senator from Florida (2019–present) and former governor of Florida (2011–2019)[138]
U.S. representatives
- Jim Banks, U.S. representative from Indiana's 3rd congressional district (2017–2025)[55]
- Andy Biggs, U.S. representative from Arizona's 5th congressional district (2017–present)[139]
- Madison Cawthorn, U.S. representative from North Carolina's 11th congressional district (2021–2023)[56]
- Tulsi Gabbard, former U.S. representative from Hawaii's 2nd congressional district (2013–2021) and former vice chair of the Democratic National Committee (2013–2016)[140] (Independent)
- Matt Gaetz, U.S. representative from Florida's 1st congressional district (2017–2024)[55]
- Paul Gosar, U.S. representative from Arizona's 4th congressional district (2013–2023), U.S. Representative from Arizona's 1st congressional district (2011-2013)[141]
- Debbie Lesko, U.S. representative from Arizona's 8th congressional district (2018–2025)[139]
- Ron Paul, former U.S. representative (R-TX) (1976-1977, 1979-1985, 1997-2013), candidate for president in 1988, 2008 and 2012 (Libertarian)[142][143][144]
- David Schweikert, U.S. representative from Arizona's 6th congressional district (2013–2023), U.S. Representative from Arizona's 5th congressional district (2011-2013)[139]
- Marjorie Taylor Greene, U.S. representative from Georgia's 14th congressional district (2021–2026)[57]
Governors
- Jan Brewer, former governor of Arizona (2009–2015) and former secretary of state of Arizona (2003–2009)[145]
- Ron DeSantis, governor of Florida (2019–present) and former U.S. representative from Florida's 6th congressional district (2013–2018)[146]
- Doug Ducey, governor of Arizona (2015–2023) and former Arizona State Treasurer (2011–2015)[145]
- Fife Symington, former governor of Arizona (1991–1997)[145]
Local officials
- Mark Lamb, sheriff of Pinal County (2017–2024)[147]
Party officials
- Kelli Ward, chair of the Arizona Republican Party (2019–2023)[148]
Individuals
- Tucker Carlson, host of Tucker Carlson Tonight and conservative political commentator[58]
- Nick Fuentes, far-right livestreamer and white supremacist[149]
- Sean Hannity, host of Hannity and The Sean Hannity Show and conservative political commentator[150]
- Chuck Norris, martial artist and actor[151]
- Jack Posobiec, political activist[149]
- Dave Smith, comedian, podcaster, and co-host of Legion of Skanks[152] (Libertarian)
- Peter Thiel, venture capitalist[59]
- Marc Victor, former Libertarian nominee for Arizona's other Senate seat in 2012[4] (Libertarian)
Labor unions
Organizations
- Arizona Republican Party[148]
- Campaign for Working Families[154]
- Center for Arizona Policy[155]
- Club for Growth[51]
- The Conservative Caucus[156]
- FreedomWorks for America[157]
- National Federation of Independent Business[158]
- National Right to Life Committee[159]
- NRA Political Victory Fund[160]
- Political Victory Fund[161]
- Republicans for National Renewal[61]
- Tea Party Express[62]
- Turning Point Action[162]
Rejected by candidate
- Andrew Anglin, neo-Nazi and founder of The Daily Stormer[63][64]
Polling
Aggregate polls
| Source of poll aggregation |
Dates administered |
Dates updated |
Mark Kelly (D) |
Blake Masters (R) |
Undecided [f] |
Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| RealClearPolitics[163] | October 30 – November 7, 2022 | November 7, 2022 | 48.0% | 48.3% | 3.7% | Masters +0.3 |
| FiveThirtyEight[164] | September 7, 2021 – November 7, 2022 | November 7, 2022 | 48.6% | 47.1% | 4.3% | Kelly +1.5 |
| 270ToWin[165] | November 3–7, 2022 | November 7, 2022 | 47.9% | 46.6% | 5.5% | Kelly +1.3 |
| Average | 48.3% | 47.2% | 4.5% | Kelly +1.1 | ||
Graphical summary
View source data.
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[b] |
Margin of error |
Mark Kelly (D) |
Blake Masters (R) |
Marc Victor (L) |
Other | Undecided | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| The Trafalgar Group (R)[166] | November 5–7, 2022 | 1,094 (LV) | ± 2.9% | 47% | 48% | 1% | – | 4% | ||||||||
| Data Orbital (R)[167] | November 4–6, 2022 | 550 (LV) | ± 4.3% | 48% | 47% | 2% | 1%[g] | 3% | ||||||||
| Research Co.[168] | November 4–6, 2022 | 450 (LV) | ± 4.6% | 49% | 46% | 2% | – | 3% | ||||||||
| Data for Progress (D)[169] | November 2–6, 2022 | 1,359 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 49% | 50% | 2% | – | – | ||||||||
| Targoz Market Research[170] | November 2–6, 2022 | 560 (LV) | ± 4.1% | 50% | 47% | 2% | – | – | ||||||||
| KAConsulting (R)[171][G] | November 2–3, 2022 | 501 (LV) | ± 4.4% | 47% | 46% | – | 1% | 6% | ||||||||
| InsiderAdvantage (R)[172] | November 2, 2022 | 550 (LV) | ± 4.2% | 48% | 48% | 2% | – | 2% | ||||||||
| HighGround Inc.[173] | November 1–2, 2022 | 500 (LV) | ± 4.4% | 46% | 45% | – | 2%[h] | 6% | ||||||||
| Remington Research Group (R)[174] | November 1–2, 2022 | 1,075 (LV) | ± 2.9% | 48% | 47% | 2% | – | 3% | ||||||||
| Marist College[175] | October 31 – November 2, 2022 | 1,157 (RV) | ± 4.1% | 49% | 45% | – | 1%[i] | 8% | ||||||||
| 1,015 (LV) | ± 4.3% | 50% | 47% | – | 1%[j] | 2% | ||||||||||
| Big Data Poll (R)[176] | October 31 – November 2, 2022 | 1,051 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 48% | 49% | – | – | 4% | ||||||||
| Patriot Polling (R)[177] | October 30 – November 2, 2022 | 814 (RV) | – | 49% | 48% | – | – | 4% | ||||||||
| Civiqs[178] | October 29 – November 2, 2022 | 852 (LV) | ± 4.2% | 49% | 49% | – | 2%[k] | 1% | ||||||||
| Victor withdraws from the race and endorses Masters | ||||||||||||||||
| Emerson College[179] | October 30 – November 1, 2022 | 1,000 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 47% | 48% | 3% | 1%[l] | 1% | ||||||||
| 48% | 48% | 3% | 1%[m] | – | ||||||||||||
| The Phillips Academy[180] | October 29–30, 2022 | 985 (LV) | ± 3.1% | 47% | 47% | 2% | – | 5% | ||||||||
| Fox News[181] | October 26–30, 2022 | 1,003 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 47% | 45% | – | 4%[n] | 5% | ||||||||
| Wick Insights (R)[182] | October 26–30, 2022 | 1,122 (LV) | ± 3.2% | 49% | 47% | – | 3%[o] | 1% | ||||||||
| Fabrizio, Lee and Associates (R)[183][E] | October 24–26, 2022 | 800 (LV) | ± 3.5% | 47% | 46% | 3% | – | – | ||||||||
| OH Predictive Insights[184] | October 24–26, 2022 | 600 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 48% | 46% | 3% | – | 3% | ||||||||
| Siena College/NYT[185] | October 24–26, 2022 | 604 (LV) | ± 4.4% | 51% | 45% | 1% | – | 3% | ||||||||
| BSP Research/Shaw & Co.[186][H] | October 19–26, 2022 | 1,000 (RV) | ± 3.1% | 44% | 40% | – | 5%[p] | 11% | ||||||||
| InsiderAdvantage (R)[172] | October 24–25, 2022 | 550 (LV) | ± 4.2% | 45% | 43% | 6% | – | 6% | ||||||||
| co/efficient (R)[187] | October 20–21, 2022 | 1,111 (LV) | ± 3.1% | 47% | 45% | 4% | – | 4% | ||||||||
| Susquehanna Polling & Research (R)[188][I] | October 14–18, 2022 | 600 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 48% | 45% | 2% | <1%[q] | 6% | ||||||||
| The Trafalgar Group (R)[189][J] | October 16–17, 2022 | 1,078 (LV) | ± 2.9% | 47% | 46% | 3% | – | 4% | ||||||||
| Data for Progress (D)[190] | October 11–17, 2022 | 893 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 47% | 47% | 3% | – | 4% | ||||||||
| Wick Insights (R)[191] | October 8–14, 2022 | 1,058 (LV) | ± 3.1% | 49% | 46% | – | 2%[r] | 3% | ||||||||
| HighGround Inc.[192][K] | October 12–13, 2022 | 500 (LV) | ± 4.3% | 42% | 40% | 5% | 3%[s] | 10% | ||||||||
| InsiderAdvantage (R)[193] | October 11, 2022 | 550 (LV) | ± 4.2% | 46% | 42% | 5% | – | 7% | ||||||||
| Kurt Jetta (D)[194][L] | October 9–10, 2022 | 894 (RV) | – | 54% | 32% | – | – | 15% | ||||||||
| 551 (LV) | 55% | 38% | – | – | 7% | |||||||||||
| Ascend Action (R)[195] | October 8–10, 2022 | 954 (LV) | ± 3.2% | 48% | 44% | – | 5%[t] | 2% | ||||||||
| OnMessage Inc. (R)[196][M] | October 8–10, 2022 | 600 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 46% | 43% | 4% | – | 7% | ||||||||
| OH Predictive Insights[197] | October 4–6, 2022 | 674 (LV) | ± 3.8% | 46% | 33% | 15% | – | 7% | ||||||||
| Big Data Poll (R)[198] | October 2–5, 2022 | 970 (LV) | ± 3.1% | 46% | 45% | 2% | – | 7% | ||||||||
| YouGov/CBS News[199] | September 30 – October 4, 2022 | 1,164 (RV) | ± 3.8% | 51% | 48% | – | – | 1% | ||||||||
| CNN/SSRS[200] | September 26 – October 2, 2022 | 900 (RV) | ± 4.4% | 52% | 42% | – | 7%[u] | – | ||||||||
| 795 (LV) | ± 4.6% | 51% | 45% | – | 4%[v] | – | ||||||||||
| Fox News[201] | September 22–26, 2022 | 1,008 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 46% | 40% | – | 6%[w] | 9% | ||||||||
| Suffolk University[202] | September 21–25, 2022 | 500 (LV) | ± 4.4% | 49% | 42% | 2% | – | 7% | ||||||||
| Marist College[203] | September 19–22, 2022 | 1,260 (RV) | ± 3.6% | 51% | 41% | – | – | 8% | ||||||||
| 1,076 (LV) | ± 3.9% | 50% | 45% | – | – | 5% | ||||||||||
| Data for Progress (D)[204] | September 15–19, 2022 | 768 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 48% | 47% | 2% | – | 3% | ||||||||
| The Trafalgar Group (R)[205] | September 14–17, 2022 | 1080 (LV) | ± 2.9% | 47% | 45% | 3% | – | 5% | ||||||||
| Fabrizio Ward (R)/Impact Research (D)[206] | September 8–15, 2022 | 500 (LV) | ± 4.4% | 50% | 42% | 4% | – | 4% | ||||||||
| 52% | 45% | – | – | 3% | ||||||||||||
| OnMessage Inc. (R)[196][M] | September 6–11, 2022 | 400 (LV) | ± 4.9% | 50% | 40% | 6% | – | 5% | ||||||||
| Kurt Jetta (D)[207][L] | September 9–10, 2022 | 972 (RV) | ± 3.5% | 53% | 32% | – | – | 15% | ||||||||
| 563 (LV) | 55% | 35% | – | – | 9% | |||||||||||
| OH Predictive Insights[208] | September 6–9, 2022 | 654 (LV) | ± 3.8% | 47% | 35% | 6% | – | 12% | ||||||||
| Emerson College[209] | September 6–7, 2022 | 627 (LV) | ± 3.9% | 47% | 45% | – | 3%[x] | 5% | ||||||||
| InsiderAdvantage (R)[210] | September 6–7, 2022 | 550 (LV) | ± 4.2% | 45% | 39% | 4% | – | 12% | ||||||||
| Echelon Insights[211] | August 31 – September 7, 2022 | 773 (RV) | ±4.5% | 52% | 37% | – | – | 11% | ||||||||
| The Trafalgar Group (R)[212] | August 24–27, 2022 | 1,074 (LV) | ± 2.9% | 48% | 44% | 4% | – | 4% | ||||||||
| RMG Research[213] | August 16–22, 2022 | 750 (LV) | ± 3.6% | 50% | 43% | – | – | 7% | ||||||||
| Fox News[214] | August 12–16, 2022 | 1,012 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 50% | 42% | – | 2% | 6% | ||||||||
| Kurt Jetta (D)[215][L] | August 4–8, 2022 | 1,107 (A) | ± 2.9% | 48% | 34% | – | – | 19% | ||||||||
| 877 (RV) | ± 3.3% | 50% | 34% | – | – | 16% | ||||||||||
| 512 (LV) | ± 4.3% | 54% | 40% | – | – | 7% | ||||||||||
| OnMessage Inc. (R)[216][N] | August 1–2, 2022 | 600 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 49% | 44% | – | – | 7% | ||||||||
| Beacon Research (D)[217][O] | July 5–20, 2022 | 802 (RV) | ± 3.5% | 49% | 34% | – | 1% | 13% | ||||||||
| 504 (LV) | ± 4.4% | 51% | 39% | – | 2% | 8% | ||||||||||
| Fabrizio Lee (R)[218][A] | July 13–14, 2022 | 800 (LV) | ± 3.5% | 49% | 44% | – | – | 7% | ||||||||
| Change Research (D)[219][P] | June 24–27, 2022 | 705 (LV) | ± 3.7% | 48% | 39% | – | – | 13% | ||||||||
| Blueprint Polling (D)[220] | May 12–16, 2022 | 608 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 49% | 32% | – | – | 19% | ||||||||
| OH Predictive Insights[96] | September 7–12, 2021 | 882 (RV) | ± 3.3% | 44% | 35% | – | – | 21% | ||||||||
Hypothetical polling
Mark Kelly vs. Mark Brnovich
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[b] |
Margin of error |
Mark Kelly (D) |
Mark Brnovich (R) |
Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Beacon Research (D)[217][O] | July 5–20, 2022 | 802 (RV) | ± 3.5% | 49% | 35% | 1% | 11% |
| 504 (LV) | ± 4.4% | 51% | 40% | 2% | 7% | ||
| Blueprint Polling (D)[220] | May 12–16, 2022 | 608 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 50% | 33% | – | 18% |
| Data for Progress (D)[221] | January 21–24, 2022 | 1,469 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 49% | 47% | – | 4% |
| OH Predictive Insights[96] | September 7–12, 2021 | 882 (RV) | ± 3.3% | 43% | 39% | – | 18% |
| OH Predictive Insights[222] | May 3–5, 2021 | 935 (RV) | ± 3.2% | 46% | 36% | – | 18% |
Mark Kelly vs. Jim Lamon
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[b] |
Margin of error |
Mark Kelly (D) |
Jim Lamon (R) |
Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Beacon Research (D)[217][O] | July 5–20, 2022 | 802 (RV) | ± 3.5% | 48% | 34% | 2% | 14% |
| 504 (LV) | ± 4.4% | 50% | 40% | 2% | 9% | ||
| Change Research (D)[219][P] | June 24–27, 2022 | 705 (LV) | ± 3.7% | 47% | 41% | – | 12% |
| Blueprint Polling (D)[220] | May 12–16, 2022 | 608 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 48% | 34% | – | 18% |
| OH Predictive Insights[96] | September 7–12, 2021 | 882 (RV) | ± 3.3% | 43% | 36% | – | 21% |
Mark Kelly vs. Michael McGuire
Mark Kelly vs. Andy Biggs
Mark Kelly vs. Doug Ducey
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[b] |
Margin of error |
Mark Kelly (D) |
Doug Ducey (R) |
Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Data for Progress (D)[221] | January 21–24, 2022 | 1,469 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 50% | 47% | 4% |
Mark Kelly vs. Kelli Ward
Mark Kelly vs. Kari Lake
Mark Kelly vs. Jack McCain
Mark Kelly vs. Kimberly Yee
Mark Kelly vs. generic Republican
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[b] |
Margin of error |
Mark Kelly (D) |
Generic Republican |
Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OH Predictive Insights[223] | May 9–16, 2022 | 938 (RV) | ± 3.3% | 40% | 39% | – | 21% |
| HighGround Public Affairs (R)[224] | March 26–27, 2022 | 400 (LV) | ± 4.9% | 45% | 41% | 2% | 12% |
| OH Predictive Insights[225] | March 7–15, 2022 | 753 (RV) | ± 3.6% | 37% | 39% | – | 24% |
| Change Research (D)[219][P] | March 2022 | – (LV) | – | 43% | 46% | – | 11% |
| OH Predictive Insights[92] | January 11–13, 2022 | 855 (RV) | ± 3.4% | 42% | 38% | – | 19% |
| OH Predictive Insights[93] | November 1–8, 2021 | 713 (RV) | ± 3.7% | 40% | 39% | – | 21% |
Mark Kelly vs. generic opponent
Generic Democrat vs. generic Republican
Results
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | ±% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Democratic | Mark Kelly (incumbent) | 1,322,027 | 51.39% | +0.23% | |
| Republican | Blake Masters | 1,196,308 | 46.51% | −2.30% | |
| Libertarian | Marc Victor (withdrawn) | 53,762 | 2.09% | N/A | |
| Write-in | 197 | 0.01% | –0.02% | ||
| Total votes | 2,572,294 | 100.0% | |||
| Democratic hold | |||||
By county
By county | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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By congressional district
Kelly won five of nine congressional districts, including two that elected Republicans.[227]
| District | Kelly | Masters | Representative |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1st | 52% | 46% | David Schweikert |
| 2nd | 46% | 51% | Tom O'Halleran (117th Congress) |
| Eli Crane (118th Congress) | |||
| 3rd | 76% | 21% | Ruben Gallego |
| 4th | 57% | 41% | Greg Stanton |
| 5th | 44% | 54% | Andy Biggs |
| 6th | 54% | 44% | Ann Kirkpatrick (117th Congress) |
| Juan Ciscomani (118th Congress) | |||
| 7th | 68% | 30% | Raúl Grijalva |
| 8th | 46% | 52% | Debbie Lesko |
| 9th | 38% | 60% | Paul Gosar |
See also
Notes
- Calculated by taking the difference of 100% and all other candidates combined.
- Key:
A – all adults
RV – registered voters
LV – likely voters
V – unclear - Paveza with <1%
- Response without candidates' job titles, besides 'Major General' for McGuire
- Response with candidates' job titles
- Calculated by taking the difference of 100% and all other candidates combined.
- "Refused" with 1%
- "Some other candidate" with 2%
- "Another party's candidate" with 1%
- "Another party's candidate" with 1%
- "Someone else" with 2%
- "Someone else" with 1%
- "Someone else" with 1%
- "Other" with 3%; "Wouldn't vote" with 1%
- "Someone else" with 3%
- "Someone else" with 5%
- "Other" with <1%; "Refused" with <1%
- "Someone else" with 2%
- "Some other candidate" with 3%
- "Another candidate" with 5%
- "Neither" with 5%; "Other" with 2%
- "Neither" with 3%; "Other" with 1%
- "Other" with 3%; "Wouldn't vote" with 3%
- "Someone else" with 3%
Partisan clients
- This poll was sponsored by Saving Arizona, which supports Blake Masters.
- This poll was sponsored by Kari Lake's campaign for governor.
- This poll was sponsored by Lamon's campaign.
- This poll was sponsored by Advancing Arizona Forward, which supports Mark Brnovich.
- This poll was sponsored by Club for Growth Action.
- This poll was sponsored by Andy Biggs's campaign committee.
- Poll conducted for Citizens United, a conservative non-profit organization.
- Poll conducted for The Federalist, a conservative online magazine.
- This poll was sponsored by The Daily Wire.
- This poll was sponsored by Arizona's Family.
- This poll was sponsored by Center Street PAC, which opposes Masters.
- This poll was sponsored by the Sentinel Action Fund, which supports Masters.
- This poll was sponsored by America Next.
- This poll was sponsored by the Environmental Voter Project.
- This poll was sponsored by Future Majority and America's Future Majority Fund.