2020 United States presidential election in Oregon
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The 2020 United States presidential election in Oregon was held on Tuesday, November 3, 2020, as part of the 2020 United States presidential election in which all 50 states plus the District of Columbia participated.[1] Oregon voters chose electors to represent them in the Electoral College via a popular vote, pitting the Republican Party's nominee, President Donald Trump, and running mate Vice President Mike Pence against Democratic Party nominee, former Vice President Joe Biden, and his running mate California Senator Kamala Harris. Oregon has seven electoral votes in the Electoral College.[2]
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November 3, 2020
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| Turnout | 81.97% (of registered voters)  | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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Prior to the election, Oregon was considered to be a state Biden would win or a safe blue state. Biden won 56.45% of the vote to 40.37% for Trump. Biden received Oregon's seven electoral votes in the Electoral College.[3] The state certified its election results on December 3.[4]
Biden won Oregon by 16.09%, an increase from Hillary Clinton's 11% victory margin in 2016. No Republican presidential candidate has won Oregon since Ronald Reagan of neighboring California in 1984. Biden flipped two counties Trump won in 2016: Marion County, home to the state capital of Salem; and Deschutes County, anchored by fast-growing Bend. This marked the first time since 1964 that a Democrat won an outright majority in Deschutes County, although Democratic presidential nominees in 1976 and 1992 had carried the county with pluralities.[5]
Biden was the first Democrat since Woodrow Wilson in 1916 to win the presidency without carrying Columbia County and Tillamook County. Tillamook and Columbia counties were among a fraction of the more than 3,000 counties in the U.S. to vote twice for Barack Obama (in 2008 and 2012) and twice for Trump (in 2016 and 2020).[6] Biden also made history as the highest vote earner in Oregon history, with 1,340,383 votes, and Biden was able to achieve stronger swings leftward in 28 of Oregon's 36 counties than Hillary Clinton in 2016. Per exit polls by the Associated Press, 33% of voters were secular and supported Biden by 80%.[7]
Primary elections
The Oregon primary elections were held on Tuesday, May 19, 2020.
Republican primary
Donald Trump ran unopposed in Oregon, receiving the state's 28 delegates to the Republican National Convention[8]
| Candidate | Votes | % | Delegates[10] |
|---|---|---|---|
| Donald Trump (incumbent) | 363,785 | 93.70 | 28 |
| Write-ins | 24,461 | 6.30 | 0 |
| Total | 388,246 | 100.00 | 28 |
Democratic primary
Though all Democrats but Joe Biden had withdrawn from the national race by the Oregon primary, four remained on the ballot. Biden won just under two-thirds of the vote. Bernie Sanders received just over 20% of the vote. Oregon's 71 delegates were allocated with 46 to Biden and 15 to Sanders.[8]
| Candidate | Votes | % | Delegates[12] |
|---|---|---|---|
| Joe Biden | 408,315 | 65.99 | 46 |
| Bernie Sanders (withdrawn) | 127,345 | 20.58 | 15 |
| Elizabeth Warren (withdrawn) | 59,355 | 9.59 | |
| Tulsi Gabbard (withdrawn) | 10,717 | 1.73 | |
| Write-in votes | 12,979 | 2.10 | |
| Total | 618,711 | 100% | 61 |
Independent Party of Oregon primary
The Independent Party of Oregon cross-nominated Joe Biden after an online nonpartisan blanket primary.[13]
| Candidate | Votes | % |
|---|---|---|
| Joe Biden | 1,661 | 46.7 |
| Donald Trump | 1,389 | 39.1 |
| Bernie Sanders | 1,227 | 34.5 |
| Total | 4,277 | 100.00 |
| Candidate | Votes | % |
|---|---|---|
| Joe Biden | 392 | 55.13 |
| Donald Trump | 280 | 39.38 |
Pacific Green Party primary
Howie Hawkins won the Oregon Green Party primary.
General election
Final predictions
| Source | Ranking |
|---|---|
| The Cook Political Report[14] | Solid D |
| Inside Elections[15] | Solid D |
| Sabato's Crystal Ball[16] | Safe D |
| Politico[17] | Likely D |
| RCP[18] | Lean D |
| Niskanen[19] | Safe D |
| CNN[20] | Solid D |
| The Economist[21] | Safe D |
| CBS News[22] | Likely D |
| 270towin[23] | Safe D |
| ABC News[24] | Solid D |
| NPR[25] | Likely D |
| NBC News[26] | Likely D |
| 538[27] | Solid D |
Polling
View source data.
Polls
Aggregate polls
| Source of poll aggregation |
Dates administered |
Dates updated |
Joe Biden Democratic |
Donald Trump Republican |
Other/ Undecided [a] |
Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 270 to Win[28] | September 26 – October 17, 2020 | October 20, 2020 | 58.0% | 38.5% | 3.5% | Biden +19.5 |
| FiveThirtyEight[29] | until November 2, 2020 | November 3, 2020 | 58.7% | 37.4% | 3.9% | Biden +21.3 |
| Average | 58.4% | 38.0% | 3.7% | Biden +20.4 | ||
Polls
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[b] |
Margin of error |
Donald Trump Republican |
Joe Biden Democratic |
Jo Jorgensen Libertarian |
Howie Hawkins Pacific Green |
Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SurveyMonkey/Axios[30] | Oct 20 – Nov 2, 2020 | 3,543 (LV) | ± 2.5% | 39%[c] | 59% | – | – | – | – |
| Swayable[31] | Oct 23 – Nov 1, 2020 | 324 (LV) | ± 7.3% | 37% | 60% | 1% | 1% | – | – |
| SurveyMonkey/Axios[30] | Oct 1–28, 2020 | 5,422 (LV) | – | 38% | 61% | – | – | – | – |
| SurveyMonkey/Axios[30] | Sep 1–30, 2020 | 2,109 (LV) | – | 38% | 61% | – | – | – | 2% |
| Civiqs/Daily Kos[32] | Sep 26–29, 2020 | 944 (LV) | ± 3.5% | 39% | 56% | – | – | 3%[d] | 2% |
| DHM Research[33] | Sep 3–8, 2020 | 502 (LV) | ± 4% | 39% | 51% | – | – | 6%[e] | 4% |
| SurveyMonkey/Axios[30] | Aug 1–31, 2020 | 1,648 (LV) | – | 38% | 60% | – | – | – | 2% |
| SurveyMonkey/Axios[30] | Jul 1–31, 2020 | 1,890 (LV) | – | 38% | 61% | – | – | – | 1% |
| SurveyMonkey/Axios[30] | Jun 8–30, 2020 | 872 (LV) | – | 39% | 59% | – | – | – | 2% |
Results
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | ±% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Democratic | Joe Biden Kamala Harris |
1,340,383 | 56.45% | +6.38% | |
| Republican | Donald Trump Mike Pence |
958,448 | 40.37% | +1.28% | |
| Libertarian | Jo Jorgensen Spike Cohen |
41,582 | 1.75% | −2.96% | |
| Pacific Green | Howie Hawkins Angela Walker |
11,831 | 0.50% | −2.00% | |
| Progressive | Dario Hunter Dawn Neptune Adams |
4,988 | 0.21% | N/A | |
| Write-in | 17,089 | 0.72% | −2.91% | ||
| Total votes | 2,374,321 | 100.00% | N/A | ||
By county
| County[34] | Joe Biden Democratic |
Donald Trump Republican |
Various candidates Other parties |
Margin | Total votes cast | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| # | % | # | % | # | % | # | % | ||
| Baker | 2,346 | 23.62% | 7,352 | 74.02% | 234 | 2.36% | -5,006 | -50.40% | 9,932 |
| Benton | 35,827 | 67.86% | 14,878 | 28.18% | 2,094 | 3.97% | 20,949 | 39.68% | 52,799 |
| Clackamas | 139,043 | 53.96% | 110,509 | 42.89% | 8,127 | 3.15% | 28,534 | 11.07% | 257,679 |
| Clatsop | 12,916 | 54.02% | 10,218 | 42.74% | 776 | 3.25% | 2,698 | 11.28% | 23,910 |
| Columbia | 13,835 | 42.94% | 17,150 | 53.23% | 1,236 | 3.84% | -3,315 | -10.29% | 32,221 |
| Coos | 14,243 | 38.42% | 21,829 | 58.88% | 1,003 | 2.71% | -7,586 | -20.46% | 37,075 |
| Crook | 3,801 | 24.61% | 11,287 | 73.06% | 360 | 2.33% | -7,486 | -48.46% | 15,448 |
| Curry | 6,058 | 40.59% | 8,484 | 56.84% | 383 | 2.57% | -2,426 | -16.25% | 14,925 |
| Deschutes | 65,962 | 52.67% | 55,646 | 44.43% | 3,626 | 2.90% | 10,316 | 8.24% | 125,234 |
| Douglas | 19,160 | 29.78% | 43,298 | 67.29% | 1,891 | 2.94% | -24,138 | -37.51% | 64,349 |
| Gilliam | 324 | 27.50% | 834 | 70.80% | 20 | 1.70% | -510 | -43.29% | 1,178 |
| Grant | 929 | 20.21% | 3,545 | 77.13% | 122 | 2.65% | -2,616 | -56.92% | 4,596 |
| Harney | 894 | 19.95% | 3,475 | 77.55% | 112 | 2.50% | -2,581 | -57.60% | 4,481 |
| Hood River | 8,764 | 66.95% | 3,955 | 30.21% | 371 | 2.83% | 4,809 | 36.74% | 13,090 |
| Jackson | 59,478 | 46.77% | 63,869 | 50.23% | 3,818 | 3.00% | -4,391 | -3.45% | 127,165 |
| Jefferson | 4,393 | 36.88% | 7,189 | 60.35% | 331 | 2.78% | -2,796 | -23.47% | 11,913 |
| Josephine | 18,451 | 35.73% | 31,751 | 61.48% | 1,439 | 2.79% | -13,300 | -25.75% | 51,641 |
| Klamath | 10,388 | 28.29% | 25,308 | 68.91% | 1,030 | 2.80% | -14,920 | -40.63% | 36,726 |
| Lake | 792 | 18.15% | 3,470 | 79.53% | 101 | 2.31% | -2,678 | -61.38% | 4,363 |
| Lane | 134,366 | 60.46% | 80,336 | 36.15% | 7,551 | 3.40% | 54,030 | 24.31% | 222,253 |
| Lincoln | 17,385 | 56.58% | 12,460 | 40.55% | 881 | 2.87% | 4,925 | 16.03% | 30,726 |
| Linn | 26,512 | 36.50% | 43,486 | 59.87% | 2,642 | 3.64% | -16,974 | -23.37% | 72,640 |
| Malheur | 3,260 | 27.62% | 8,187 | 69.36% | 357 | 3.02% | -4,927 | -41.74% | 11,804 |
| Marion | 80,872 | 48.86% | 79,002 | 47.73% | 5,660 | 3.42% | 1,870 | 1.13% | 165,534 |
| Morrow | 1,371 | 26.79% | 3,586 | 70.07% | 161 | 3.15% | -2,215 | -43.28% | 5,118 |
| Multnomah | 367,249 | 79.21% | 82,995 | 17.90% | 13,415 | 2.89% | 284,254 | 61.31% | 463,659 |
| Polk | 22,917 | 47.46% | 23,732 | 49.14% | 1,642 | 3.40% | -815 | -1.69% | 48,291 |
| Sherman | 260 | 21.52% | 921 | 76.24% | 27 | 2.24% | -661 | -54.72% | 1,208 |
| Tillamook | 8,066 | 47.76% | 8,354 | 49.47% | 468 | 2.77% | -288 | -1.71% | 16,888 |
| Umatilla | 10,707 | 32.41% | 21,270 | 64.38% | 1,061 | 3.21% | -10,563 | -31.97% | 33,038 |
| Union | 4,254 | 28.47% | 10,298 | 68.91% | 392 | 2.62% | -6,044 | -40.44% | 14,944 |
| Wallowa | 1,625 | 31.56% | 3,404 | 66.11% | 120 | 2.33% | -1,779 | -34.55% | 5,149 |
| Wasco | 6,604 | 46.74% | 7,035 | 49.79% | 491 | 3.47% | -431 | -3.05% | 14,130 |
| Washington | 209,940 | 65.54% | 99,073 | 30.93% | 11,313 | 3.53% | 110,867 | 34.61% | 320,326 |
| Wheeler | 217 | 22.49% | 711 | 73.68% | 37 | 3.83% | -494 | -51.19% | 965 |
| Yamhill | 27,174 | 46.12% | 29,551 | 50.15% | 2,198 | 3.73% | -2,377 | -4.03% | 58,923 |
| Totals | 1,340,383 | 56.45% | 958,448 | 40.37% | 75,490 | 3.18% | 381,935 | 16.09% | 2,374,321 |
Counties that flipped from Republican to Democratic
By congressional district
Biden won four out of five congressional districts in Oregon.[36]
| District | Trump | Biden | Representative |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1st | 33.8% | 62.7% | Suzanne Bonamici |
| 2nd | 55.3% | 41.8% | Cliff Bentz |
| 3rd | 23.3% | 73.8% | Earl Blumenauer |
| 4th | 46.4% | 50.3% | Peter DeFazio |
| 5th | 43.6% | 53.2% | Kurt Schrader |
Analysis
Edison exit polls
| 2020 presidential election in Oregon by demographic subgroup (Edison exit polling)[37][38] | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Demographic subgroup | Biden | Trump | % of
total vote |
| Total vote | 56.45 | 40.37 | 100 |
| Ideology | |||
| Liberals | 96 | 4 | 33 |
| Moderates | 66 | 30 | 37 |
| Conservatives | 8 | 92 | 30 |
| Party | |||
| Democrats | 98 | 2 | 36 |
| Republicans | 7 | 93 | 24 |
| Independents | 52 | 43 | 41 |
| Gender | |||
| Men | 51 | 45 | 50 |
| Women | 63 | 35 | 50 |
| Race/ethnicity | |||
| White | 58 | 39 | 85 |
| Non-white | – | – | 15 |
| Age | |||
| 18–29 years old | – | – | 17 |
| 30–44 years old | 62 | 34 | 24 |
| 45–64 years old | 52 | 48 | 35 |
| 65 and older | 54 | 44 | 24 |
| Sexual orientation | |||
| LGBT | – | – | 8 |
| Not LGBT | 55 | 42 | 92 |
| Education | |||
| High school or less | 38 | 62 | 24 |
| Some college education | 57 | 37 | 34 |
| Associate degree | 57 | 41 | 12 |
| Bachelor's degree | 67 | 30 | 17 |
| Postgraduate degree | 78 | 18 | 13 |
| Region | |||
| Multnomah County | – | – | 20 |
| Portland suburbs | 63 | 35 | 26 |
| Willamette/Northwest | 51 | 45 | 29 |
| East/South | 39 | 57 | 25 |
| Area type | |||
| Urban | 75 | 23 | 32 |
| Suburban | 52 | 44 | 50 |
| Rural | 37 | 58 | 18 |
| Family's financial situation today | |||
| Better than four years ago | 27 | 71 | 41 |
| Worse than four years ago | 84 | 9 | 17 |
| About the same | 73 | 24 | 42 |
See also
Notes
- Calculated by taking the difference of 100% and all other candidates combined.
- Key:
A – all adults
RV – registered voters
LV – likely voters
V – unclear - Overlapping sample with the previous SurveyMonkey/Axios poll, but more information available regarding sample size
- "Someone else" with 3%
- "Someone else" with 6%
