2024 United States presidential election in Oregon
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The 2024 United States presidential election in Oregon took place on Tuesday, November 5, 2024, as part of the 2024 United States presidential election in which all 50 states plus the District of Columbia participated. Oregon voters chose electors to represent them in the Electoral College via a popular vote. The state of Oregon has eight electoral votes in the Electoral College, following reapportionment due to the 2020 United States census in which the state gained a seat.[1]
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November 5, 2024
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Democrats have won Oregon in every presidential election starting in 1988, and have consistently done so by double digits starting in 2008. A blue state, although not as strongly as neighboring California and Washington, Oregon is part of the Democratic-leaning West Coast, and was predicted to go comfortably for Democrat Kamala Harris (from neighboring California) in 2024.[2]
Harris carried Oregon by a 14.3% margin, which was slightly closer than Oregon in 2020. Oregon shifted to the right by a much smaller margin than the majority of states in this election, as Joe Biden had won Oregon by 16.1% in 2020. This can also be said about neighboring Washington, which also largely resisted the national red wave. Oregon was one of the few states to have many counties shift leftward. Democrats also gained a U.S. House seat in Oregon in the concurrent U.S. House elections in Oregon.
Oregon and Washington shifted rightwards by less than 2%, much less than the national shift of about 6 percentage points, including the trend of Harris significantly underperforming Biden in many blue states, including her home state of California. Trump's vote share in Oregon in this election marked the highest for a Republican candidate in a presidential election since Mitt Romney in 2012.
Primary elections
Republican primary
The Oregon Republican primary was held on May 21, 2024, the same date as the Kentucky caucuses.
| Candidate | Votes | Percentage | Actual delegate count | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pledged | Unpledged | Total | |||
| Donald Trump | 294,744 | 91.6% | 31 | 31 | |
| Write-in votes | 27,209 | 8.5% | |||
| Total: | 321,983 | 100.0% | 31 | 31 | |
Democratic primary
The Oregon Democratic primary was held on May 21, 2024, the same date as the Kentucky primary.
| Candidate | Votes | Percentage | Actual delegate count | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pledged | Unpledged | Total | |||
| Joe Biden (incumbent) | 397,702 | 87.1% | 66 | 66 | |
| Marianne Williamson | 33,603 | 7.4% | |||
| Write-in votes | 25,135 | 5.5% | |||
| Total: | 456,440 | 100.0% | 66 | 12 | 78 |
Minor parties
Minor parties in Oregon nominate by nominating delegates to their national conventions, or for the We the People and Independent parties, holding a nominating convention. They are allowed to self-finance a primary, but no party chose to do so. The following candidates' nominations were accepted by Oregon's secretary of state:
| Party | Candidate |
|---|---|
| Libertarian | Chase Oliver |
| We The People | Robert F. Kennedy Jr. |
| Progressive Party | Cornel West |
| Pacific Green | Jill Stein |
| Constitution Party | Randall Terry |
The Republican Party issued a legal challenge to Libertarian party ballot access that was rejected by the secretary of state.[5]
General election
Oregon is considered solidly Democratic, and Donald Trump did not pay the $3,500 required for a candidate statement in the ballot handbook, although candidate statements were provided by the Democratic, We the People, Libertarian, and Pacific Green candidates.[6] Notably, Oregon's third-largest party, the Independent Party of Oregon, did not nominate a candidate, although it had cross-nominated Joe Biden in 2020.[7]
In the early hours of October 28, an incendiary device was placed in a ballot drop box in Portland. A total of 3 ballots were damaged, while the rest were unharmed due to the ballot box's fire suppression system.[8]
Predictions
| Source | Ranking | As of |
|---|---|---|
| Cook Political Report[9] | Solid D | December 19, 2023 |
| Inside Elections[10] | Solid D | April 26, 2023 |
| Sabato's Crystal Ball[11] | Safe D | June 29, 2023 |
| Decision Desk HQ/The Hill[12] | Safe D | August 26, 2024 |
| CNalysis[13] | Solid D | December 30, 2023 |
| The Economist[14] | Safe D | September 12, 2024 |
| 538[15] | Solid D | October 23, 2024 |
| NBC News[16] | Safe D | October 6, 2024 |
| YouGov[17] | Safe D | October 16, 2024 |
| Split Ticket[18] | Safe D | November 1, 2024 |
Polling
Kamala Harris vs. Donald Trump
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[a] |
Margin of error |
Kamala Harris Democratic |
Donald Trump Republican |
Other / Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Public Policy Polling (D)[19][A] | October 16–17, 2024 | 716 (LV) | ± 3.7% | 53% | 41% | 6% |
| Hoffman Research[20] | July 24–26, 2024 | 700 (LV) | ± 3.7% | 49% | 44% | 7% |
Kamala Harris vs. Donald Trump vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr. vs. Jill Stein
Joe Biden vs. Donald Trump
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[a] |
Margin of error |
Joe Biden Democratic |
Donald Trump Republican |
Other / Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| The Bullfinch Group[21][B] | April 16–23, 2024 | 250 (RV) | ± 6.2% | 52% | 40% | 8% |
| John Zogby Strategies[22][C] | April 13–21, 2024 | 419 (LV) | – | 47% | 44% | 9% |
| Emerson College[23] | October 31 – November 1, 2022 | 975 (LV) | ± 3.1% | 51% | 35% | 14% |
| Emerson College[24] | September 30 – October 1, 2022 | 796 (LV) | ± 3.4% | 50% | 41% | 9% |
Joe Biden vs. Donald Trump vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr. vs. Cornel West vs. Jill Stein
Joe Biden vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr.
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[a] |
Margin of error |
Joe Biden Democratic |
Robert F. Kennedy Jr. Independent |
Other / Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| John Zogby Strategies[22][C] | April 13–21, 2024 | 419 (LV) | – | 40% | 49% | 11% |
Robert F. Kennedy Jr. vs. Donald Trump
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[a] |
Margin of error |
Robert F. Kennedy Jr. Independent |
Donald Trump Republican |
Other / Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| John Zogby Strategies[22][C] | April 13–21, 2024 | 419 (LV) | – | 42% | 39% | 19% |
Results
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | ±% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Democratic | 1,240,600 | 55.27% | 1.18% | ||
| Republican | 919,480 | 40.97% |  0.60% | ||
| We the People |
|
33,733 | 1.50% | N/A | |
| Pacific Green | 19,099 | 0.85% | 0.35% | ||
| Libertarian | 9,061 | 0.40% | 1.35% | ||
| Progressive | 5,644 | 0.25% | 0.04% | ||
| Constitution | 1,850 | 0.08% | N/A | ||
| Write-in | 15,026 | 0.67% | 0.05% | ||
| Total votes | 2,244,493 | 100.00% | N/A | ||
By county
| County[25] | Kamala Harris Democratic |
Donald Trump Republican |
Various candidates Other parties |
Margin | Total | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| # | % | # | % | # | % | # | % | ||
| Baker | 2,343 | 24.17% | 7,060 | 72.83% | 291 | 3.00% | -4,717 | -48.66% | 9,694 |
| Benton | 33,909 | 67.50% | 14,187 | 28.24% | 2,136 | 4.25% | 19,722 | 39.26% | 50,232 |
| Clackamas | 130,580 | 53.03% | 106,387 | 43.20% | 9,273 | 3.77% | 24,193 | 9.82% | 246,240 |
| Clatsop | 12,533 | 53.81% | 9,913 | 42.56% | 844 | 3.62% | 2,620 | 11.25% | 23,290 |
| Columbia | 12,895 | 41.15% | 17,227 | 54.98% | 1,212 | 3.87% | -4,332 | -13.83% | 31,334 |
| Coos | 13,731 | 38.42% | 20,849 | 58.34% | 1,155 | 3.23% | -7,118 | -19.92% | 35,735 |
| Crook | 3,836 | 23.54% | 12,012 | 73.71% | 449 | 2.76% | -8,176 | -50.17% | 16,297 |
| Curry | 5,737 | 40.40% | 8,000 | 56.34% | 463 | 3.26% | -2,263 | -15.94% | 14,200 |
| Deschutes | 68,108 | 53.47% | 54,850 | 43.06% | 4,417 | 3.47% | 13,258 | 10.41% | 127,375 |
| Douglas | 18,386 | 29.75% | 41,561 | 67.24% | 1,860 | 3.01% | -23,175 | -37.50% | 61,807 |
| Gilliam | 291 | 25.66% | 805 | 70.99% | 38 | 3.35% | -514 | -45.33% | 1,134 |
| Grant | 816 | 18.31% | 3,490 | 78.32% | 150 | 3.37% | -2,674 | -60.01% | 4,456 |
| Harney | 797 | 18.73% | 3,307 | 77.72% | 151 | 3.55% | -2,510 | -58.99% | 4,255 |
| Hood River | 8,364 | 65.82% | 3,854 | 30.33% | 489 | 3.85% | 4,510 | 35.49% | 12,707 |
| Jackson | 54,065 | 45.22% | 61,743 | 51.64% | 3,764 | 3.15% | -7,678 | -6.42% | 119,572 |
| Jefferson | 3,941 | 33.54% | 7,454 | 63.44% | 355 | 3.02% | -3,513 | -29.90% | 11,750 |
| Josephine | 16,928 | 34.11% | 31,129 | 62.72% | 1,571 | 3.17% | -14,201 | -28.61% | 49,628 |
| Klamath | 9,856 | 27.75% | 24,675 | 69.48% | 984 | 2.77% | -14,819 | -41.73% | 35,515 |
| Lake | 681 | 16.16% | 3,421 | 81.20% | 111 | 2.63% | -2,740 | -65.04% | 4,213 |
| Lane | 125,775 | 59.53% | 77,376 | 36.62% | 8,134 | 3.85% | 48,399 | 22.91% | 211,285 |
| Lincoln | 17,112 | 57.42% | 11,645 | 39.07% | 1,047 | 3.51% | 5,467 | 18.34% | 29,804 |
| Linn | 25,749 | 36.05% | 43,078 | 60.31% | 2,602 | 3.64% | -17,329 | -24.26% | 71,429 |
| Malheur | 2,884 | 26.35% | 7,710 | 70.44% | 351 | 3.21% | -4,826 | -44.09% | 10,945 |
| Marion | 73,970 | 47.21% | 77,089 | 49.20% | 5,632 | 3.59% | -3,119 | -1.99% | 156,691 |
| Morrow | 1,138 | 24.05% | 3,408 | 72.02% | 186 | 3.93% | -2,270 | -47.97% | 4,732 |
| Multnomah | 325,927 | 78.68% | 70,759 | 17.08% | 17,564 | 4.24% | 255,168 | 61.60% | 414,250 |
| Polk | 22,034 | 46.30% | 23,768 | 49.94% | 1,791 | 3.76% | -1,734 | -3.64% | 47,593 |
| Sherman | 233 | 20.03% | 890 | 76.53% | 40 | 3.44% | -657 | -56.49% | 1,163 |
| Tillamook | 7,747 | 47.67% | 7,971 | 49.05% | 534 | 3.29% | -224 | -1.38% | 16,252 |
| Umatilla | 9,251 | 29.63% | 20,973 | 67.17% | 1,001 | 3.21% | -11,722 | -37.54% | 31,225 |
| Union | 4,107 | 28.18% | 9,942 | 68.22% | 525 | 3.60% | -5,835 | -40.04% | 14,574 |
| Wallowa | 1,573 | 30.79% | 3,366 | 65.90% | 169 | 3.31% | -1,793 | -35.10% | 5,108 |
| Wasco | 6,069 | 45.32% | 6,837 | 51.06% | 485 | 3.62% | -768 | -5.74% | 13,391 |
| Washington | 193,013 | 64.78% | 92,590 | 31.08% | 12,346 | 4.14% | 100,423 | 33.70% | 297,949 |
| Wheeler | 210 | 24.19% | 618 | 71.20% | 40 | 4.61% | -408 | -47.00% | 868 |
| Yamhill | 26,011 | 45.00% | 29,536 | 51.10% | 2,253 | 3.90% | -3,525 | -6.10% | 57,800 |
| Totals | 1,240,600 | 55.27% | 919,480 | 40.97% | 84,413 | 3.76% | 321,120 | 14.31% | 2,244,493 |
County that flipped from Democratic to Republican
By congressional district
Harris won five of six congressional districts.[26][user-generated source]
| District | Harris | Trump | Representative |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1st | 66.76% | 29.16% | Suzanne Bonamici |
| 2nd | 34.90% | 61.96% | Cliff Bentz |
| 3rd | 70.73% | 25.12% | Earl Blumenauer (118th Congress) |
| Maxine Dexter (119th Congress) | |||
| 4th | 54.14% | 42.16% | Val Hoyle |
| 5th | 52.49% | 43.83% | Lori Chavez-DeRemer (118th Congress) |
| Janelle Bynum (119th Congress) | |||
| 6th | 53.75% | 42.45% | Andrea Salinas |
Analysis
Trump flipped back Marion County, after losing it in 2020 but winning it in 2016.
Trump also became the first Republican to win the White House without winning Deschutes County since it was created in 1916. Deschutes County shifted leftward by about 2%, with Harris winning the highest vote share in the county since 1964.
See also
Notes
- Key:
A – all adults
RV – registered voters
LV – likely voters
V – unclear
Partisan clients
- This poll was sponsored by the Northwest Progressive Institute
- Poll sponsored by The Independent Center
- Poll conducted for Kennedy's campaign