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2021 Liberal Democratic Party presidential election

Political party leadership elections in Japan From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

The 2021 Liberal Democratic Party presidential election was held on 29 September 2021 to elect the next President of the Liberal Democratic Party of Japan and Prime Minister of Japan. Fumio Kishida was elected to lead the party and assumed the premiership on 4 October. He led the party into the 2021 Japanese general election.[1]

Registered1,104,336
Turnout762,004  · 69.00%
Quick facts Registered, Turnout ...
2021 Liberal Democratic Party presidential election
← 2020
29 September 2021[1]
2024 →
Registered1,104,336
Turnout762,004  · 69.00%
 
Candidate Fumio Kishida Taro Kono
Leader's seat Hiroshima 1st Kanagawa 15th
First round 256 (33.60%) 255 (33.46%)
Runoff vote 257 (60.19%) 170 (39.81%)
 
Candidate Sanae Takaichi Seiko Noda
Leader's seat Nara 2nd Gifu 1st
First round 188 (24.67%) 63 (8.27%)
Runoff vote Eliminated Eliminated
President before election

Yoshihide Suga

 Elected President

Fumio Kishida

Close

President of the LDP and Prime Minister Yoshihide Suga announced on 3 September that he would not run for his re-election, amid low approval ratings and media reports of dissension within the party.[2] Suga was initially elected President of the LDP in 2020 to serve the rest of former prime minister Shinzo Abe's third and final term after Abe resigned in August 2020 due to health issues.

Former Minister for Foreign Affairs Fumio Kishida won the election in a second round runoff, defeating opponent Taro Kono, the incumbent Minister for Administrative Reform and Regulatory Reform. Kishida's victory was driven by strong support among LDP Diet members, while Kono led polling prior to the election and won the most votes from dues-paying party members. Kishida was confirmed by the Diet as Japan's 100th Prime Minister on 4 October 2021.[3]

Background

Shinzo Abe was elected President of the LDP three consecutive times in 2012, 2015 and 2018 following a rule change in 2017 which extended the office's term limit to three consecutive terms instead of two.[4] He successfully led the LDP to three consecutive general election victories in 2012, 2014 and 2017 and assumed the premiership as the longest-serving Prime Minister in Japanese history.[5] On 28 August 2020, Abe suddenly announced that he would resign as Prime Minister and LDP president following a resurgence of his ulcerative colitis.[6]

Chief Cabinet Secretary Yoshihide Suga won the party's special election in September 2020 to serve the remainder of Abe's term as LDP president, with Suga subsequently entering office as prime minister on 16 September.[2] Suga had initially announced that he would run for re-election for a full term as LDP president in advance of the 2021 general election.[7] On 3 September 2021, Suga reversed course and announced that he would not run for re-election as LDP president, amid poor approval ratings and media reports of internal dissension within the party regarding Suga's leadership.[2]

Suga's withdrawal from the race as well as the fact that most of the LDP's internal factions have declined to endorse a specific candidate led to the election being described as wide open and unpredictable.[8]

Election procedure

The election process for the President of the LDP is established in the "Rules for the Election of President of the Party".[9] To officially qualify as a candidate in the election, a candidate must be an LDP member of the National Diet and must receive a nomination from at least 20 fellow LDP Diet members.[9]

The LDP selects its leader via a two-round election involving both LDP members of the Diet and dues-paying party members from across Japan.[10] In the first round, all LDP members of the Diet cast one vote while party member votes are translated proportionally into votes equaling the other half of the total ballots.[10] If any candidate wins a majority (over 50%) of votes in the first-round, that candidate is elected president.[10]

If no candidate receives a majority of votes in the first round, a runoff is held immediately between the top two candidates.[10] In the runoff, all Diet members vote again while the 47 prefectural chapters of the LDP get one vote each, with the result of the latter votes determined using the first round results of party members in each prefecture.[10] The candidate who wins the most votes in the runoff is then elected president.[10]

The party's secretary general can decide to organise the election with the rule of the second round only, as was decided in 2020, but didn't as for 2021.[11]

Candidates

Declared

More information Candidate(s), Date of birth ...
Candidate(s) Date of birth Current position Party faction Electoral district Announced Reference(s)
Fumio Kishida		 (1957-07-29)29 July 1957
(age 64)		 Member of the House of Representatives
(since 1993)
Previous offices held
 Kōchikai
(Kishida)
Hiroshima 1st		 26 August 2021 [12]
Taro Kono		 (1963-01-10)10 January 1963
(age 59)		 Minister for Administrative Reform and Regulatory Reform
(since 2020)
Minister for COVID-19 Vaccinations
(since 2021)
Member of the House of Representatives
(since 1996)
Previous offices held
 Shikōkai
(Asō)
Kanagawa 15th		 10 September 2021 [13]
Sanae Takaichi		 (1961-03-07)7 March 1961
(age 60)		 Member of the House of Representatives
(since 2005)
Previous offices held
 None
(Widely regarded as an ally of Shinzo Abe)[14]
Nara 2nd		 8 September 2021 [14]
Seiko Noda		 (1960-09-03)3 September 1960
(age 61)		 Member of the House of Representatives
(since 1993)
Previous offices held
 None
Gifu 1st		 16 September 2021 [15]
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Withdrawn

More information Candidate(s), Date of birth ...
Candidate(s) Date of birth Notable positions Party faction(s) District(s) Announced Withdrew Reference(s)
Yoshihide Suga		 (1948-12-06)6 December 1948
(age 73)		 Prime Minister
(since 2020)
Member of the House of Representatives
(since 1996)
Other offices
 Ganesha no Kai [ja]
(Suga)
Kanagawa 2nd		 17 July 2021 3 September 2021
(endorsed Kono)[16]		 [7][17]
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Declined

Supporters

Recommenders

Party regulations require candidates to have the written support at least 20 Diet members, known as recommenders, to run.

Fumio Kishida[26]
Leader of recommenders
Campaign Manager
Recommenders
Taro Kono[26]
Leader of recommenders
Campaign Manager
Recommenders
Sanae Takaichi[26]
Leader of recommenders
Campaign Manager
Recommenders
Seiko Noda[26]
Leader of recommenders
Campaign Manager
Recommenders
Number of recommenders by factions
More information Candidates, Fumio Kishida ...
Candidates Fumio Kishida Taro Kono Sanae Takaichi Seiko Noda
Heisei Kenkyūkai 4 3 2 3
Kinmirai Seiji Kenkyūkai 0 3 0 1
Kōchikai 2 0 0 0
Seiwa Seisaku Kenkyūkai 4 2 7 0
Shikōkai 4 3 0 0
Shisuikai 0 2 5 8
Suigetsukai 0 2 0 0
No faction 6 5 6 8
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Endorsements

Endorsements of Fumio Kishida[27]
Current cabinet-level officials
Former cabinet-level officials
Prefectural politicians
Municipal politicians
Party factions
Other prominent individuals
Endorsements of Tarō Kōno[27]
Current cabinet-level officials
Former cabinet-level officials
Prefectural politicians
Municipal politicians
  • Yokosuka City LDP Federation[75]
  • Miura City LDP Federation[76]
Party factions
Other prominent individuals
Endorsements of Sanae Takaichi[27]
Current cabinet-level officials
Former cabinet-level officials
Prefectural politicians
Municipal politicians
  • Mayors of 14 cities and towns within the Nara 2nd district[d][90]
Party factions
Other prominent individuals
Endorsements of Seiko Noda[27]
Former cabinet-level officials
Prefectural politicians
  • Gifu Prefectural LDP Assembly Group[92]
Municipal politicians
  • Gifu City LDP Federation[93]
Party factions
Other prominent individuals

Opinion polling

More information Fieldwork date, Polling firm ...
Fieldwork date Polling firm Sample size Fumio
Kishida		 Sanae
Takaichi		 Taro
Kono		 Shigeru
Ishiba		 Seiko
Noda		 Others Undecided/None Notes
25–26 Sep 2021 Kyodo News[94] 1,014 22.4% 16.2% 47.4% – 3.4% – 10.7% [e]
25 Sep 2021 Mainichi Shimbun[95] 3,748 18% 28% 47% – 4% – 3% –
18 Sep 2021 Mainichi Shimbun[96] 1,043 13% 15% 43% – 6% – 23% –
17–18 Sep 2021 Kyodo News[97] 1,028 18.5% 15.7% 48.6% – 3.3% – 13.9% [e]
16 Sep 2021 Seiko Noda officially announces her candidacy
14 Sep 2021 Shigeru Ishiba announces that he will not run for the LDP leadership; Shinjirō Koizumi announces that he will not run for the LDP leadership and will back Taro Kono
11–12 Sep 2021 Asahi Shimbun[98] 1,477 14% 8% 33% 16% 3% – 26% –
9–11 Sep 2021 Nikkei Asia[99] N/A 14% 7% 27% 17% – – 35% –
10 Sep 2021 Taro Kono officially announces his candidacy
8 Sep 2021 Sanae Takaichi officially announces her candidacy
4–5 Sep 2021 Kyodo News[100] 1,071 18.8% 4% 31.9% 26.6% 4.4% – 14.3% –
4–5 Sep 2021 Yomiuri Shimbun[101] 1,142 12% – 23% 21% – 11%[f] 33% –
3 Sep 2021 PM Yoshihide Suga withdraws from the election; Taro Kono conveys privately to LDP members that he will run; and Seiko Noda expresses her willingness to run
27–29 Aug 2021 Nikkei Asia 1,025 13% 3% 16% 15.5% – 11%[g] 41.5% [h]
14% – 18% 12% – 20%[i] 36% [j]
26 Aug 2021 Fumio Kishida announces his candidacy; and Sanae Takaichi expresses her willingness to run in the LDP presidential election.
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Results

More information Candidate, 1st Round ...
Full result[102][103]
Candidate 1st Round 2nd Round
Diet members Party members Total points Diet members Prefectural chapters Total points
Votes % Popular votes % Allocated votes % Total votes % Votes % Votes % Total votes %
Fumio Kishida 当 146 38.42% 219,338 28.86% 110 28.80% 256
33.60% 249 65.53% 8 17.02% 257
60.19%
Taro Kono 86 22.63% 335,046 44.08% 169 44.24% 255
33.46% 131 34.47% 39 82.98% 170
39.81%
Sanae Takaichi 114 30.00% 147,764 19.44% 74 19.37% 188
24.67% Eliminated
Seiko Noda 34 8.95% 57,927 7.62% 29 7.59% 63
8.27% Eliminated
Total 380 100.00% 760,075 100.00% 382 100.00% 762 100.00% 380 100.00% 47 100.00% 427 100.00%
Valid votes 380 99.73% 760,075 99.75% 382 100.00% 762 99.87% 380 99.73% 47 100.00% 427 99.77%
Invalid and blank votes 1 0.27% 1,929 0.25% 0 0.00% 1 0.13% 1 0.27% 0 0.00% 1 0.23%
Turnout 381 99.73% 762,004 69.00% 382 100.00% 763 99.87% 381 99.74% 47 100.00% 428 99.77%
Registered voters 382 100.00% 1,104,336 100.00% 382 100.00% 764 100.00% 382 100.00% 47 100.00% 429 100.00%
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Results of Party Members' Votes by Prefectures (First Round)

More information Prefectures, Taro Kono ...
Results of Party Members' Votes by Prefectures[104]
Prefectures Taro Kono Fumio Kishida Sanae Takaichi Seiko Noda
Votes % Votes % Votes % Votes %
Aichi 17,467 52.6% 6,150 18.5% 6,726 20.2% 2,876 8.7%
Akita 4,770 62.0% 1,386 18.0% 982 12.8% 555 7.2%
Aomori 2,943 37.0% 3,435 43.1% 943 11.8% 644 8.1%
Chiba 10,617 48.1% 4,712 21.4% 4,939 22.4% 1,778 8.1%
Ehime 6,109 46.4% 3,469 26.3% 2,674 20.3% 920 7.0%
Fukui 2,742 34.5% 2,716 34.2% 2,050 25.8% 441 5.5%
Fukuoka 8,355 40.0% 7,397 35.4% 3,858 18.5% 1,276 6.1%
Fukushima 4,235 39.8% 4,233 39.7% 1,341 12.6% 845 7.9%
Gifu 8,519 31.2% 5,442 20.0% 3,340 12.2% 9,989 36.6%
Gunma 9,072 50.8% 4,254 23.8% 3,282 18.4% 1,249 7.0%
Hiroshima 1,922 7.7% 20,902 84.2% 1,696 6.8% 320 1.3%
Hokkaido 12,379 48.5% 5,625 22.0% 5,140 20.1% 2,411 9.4%
Hyōgo 8,100 41.6% 3,695 19.0% 6,200 31.8% 1,491 7.6%
Ibaraki 13,204 46.0% 10,428 36.3% 3,339 11.6% 1,741 6.1%
Ishikawa 5,642 35.4% 5,494 34.5% 3,938 24.7% 868 5.4%
Iwate 2,594 45.7% 1,582 27.9% 865 15.3% 632 11.1%
Kagawa 4,707 40.8% 4,736 41.1% 1,443 12.5% 647 5.6%
Kagoshima 7,381 56.5% 2,528 19.4% 1,991 15.2% 1,166 8.9%
Kanagawa 29,092 66.1% 6,185 14.1% 6,829 15.5% 1,892 4.3%
Kōchi 2,677 46.3% 1,767 30.5% 866 15.0% 472 8.2%
Kumamoto 6,012 38.4% 6,109 39.0% 2,783 17.8% 743 4.8%
Kyoto 4,188 39.7% 3,151 29.9% 2,344 22.3% 857 8.1%
Mie 3,876 40.4% 2,919 30.4% 1,908 19.9% 890 9.3%
Miyagi 3,815 38.4% 2,897 29.2% 2,417 24.4% 790 8.0%
Miyazaki 4,732 54.4% 1,980 22.7% 1,687 19.4% 302 3.5%
Nagano 5,921 50.2% 2,485 21.0% 2,228 18.9% 1,169 9.9%
Nagasaki 5,213 39.3% 4,464 33.6% 2,730 20.6% 862 6.5%
Nara 1,190 16.6% 659 9.2% 5,136 71.6% 184 2.6%
Niigata 9,549 53.0% 2,713 15.1% 4,363 24.2% 1,389 7.7%
Ōita 5,351 50.3% 2,430 22.9% 2,174 20.4% 676 6.4%
Okayama 6,260 44.9% 4,106 29.5% 3,029 21.7% 543 3.9%
Okinawa 1,904 41.9% 1,735 38.2% 632 13.9% 275 6.0%
Osaka 9,821 38.2% 6,258 24.4% 7,994 31.1% 1,627 6.3%
Saga 3,063 45.2% 2,221 32.7% 1,059 15.6% 443 6.5%
Saitama 13,879 49.8% 6,993 25.1% 5,151 18.5% 1,841 6.6%
Shiga 4,326 53.3% 1,764 21.7% 1,472 18.2% 551 6.8%
Shimane 3,733 41.1% 3,838 42.2% 1,169 12.9% 348 3.8%
Shizuoka 8,722 40.4% 7,198 33.4% 4,477 20.8% 1,169 5.4%
Tochigi 6,573 47.9% 3,597 26.2% 2,587 18.8% 978 7.1%
Tokushima 3,703 50.8% 2,025 27.8% 988 13.5% 575 7.9%
Tokyo 29,425 44.5% 18,659 28.2% 14,118 21.3% 3,953 6.0%
Tottori 6,360 82.0% 597 7.7% 617 8.0% 179 2.3%
Toyama 9,842 47.3% 5,350 25.7% 4,226 20.3% 1,392 6.7%
Wakayama 4,895 35.5% 3,618 26.3% 2,963 21.5% 2,296 16.7%
Yamagata 3,116 40.8% 3,268 42.8% 669 8.7% 585 7.7%
Yamaguchi 2,947 21.2% 5,565 40.1% 5,032 36.2% 345 2.5%
Yamanashi 4,103 32.0% 6,603 51.5% 1,369 10.7% 752 5.8%
Total 335,046 44.1% 219,338 28.9% 147,764 19.4% 57,927 7.6%
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Aftermath

After Prime Minister Suga announced his resignation, Kono was heavily favored to win the election as he was in first place among many LDP polls leading up to the election.[105] His campaign was endorsed by Suga and other high ranking LDP members,[106] but Kishida narrowly won the first round of the election and ultimately defeated Kono in the run-off.[102][103]

After being elected, Kishida's victory was labelled as a win for the party's "technocrats establishment".[107] Kishida was seen by many LDP members as a stable choice to succeed Suga rather than a rapid change.[107][108] Kono was seen as a candidate of change.[108] Kishida vowed not to increase the consumption tax rates in Japan and reviewing the pension and health-care system in the country.[107] He has said that his main focus would be to focus on income redistribution to address income inequality.[107]

U.S. President Joe Biden congratulated Kishida and looked "forward to working with [Kishida] to strengthen our cooperation in the years ahead".[109]

President of Taiwan Tsai Ing-wen congratulated Kishida after he was elected Prime Minister of Japan.[110]

Notes

  1. [a]
    Deceased since 17 September 2021.
  2. [b]
    He resigned from his position as a member of the House of Councillors to run in the House of Representatives election.
  3. [c]
    Although he had expressed support for Kono, he later revealed on his Twitter account that he voted for Takaichi in the first round and Kishida in the runoff election.
  4. [d]
    This excludes the mayor of Yamazoe Village immediately after the mayoral election.
  5. [e]
    LDP party members
  6. [f]
    Shinjirō Koizumi: 11%
  7. [g]
    Yoshihide Suga: 11%
  8. [h]
    Preferred Leader of the LDP
  9. [i]
    Yoshihide Suga: 20%
  10. [j]
    Preferred Prime Minister

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