2022 Andalusian regional election
Election in the Spanish region of Andalusia
From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
A regional election was held in Andalusia on 19 June 2022 to elect the 12th Parliament of the autonomous community. All 109 seats in the Parliament were up for election.
19 June 2022
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All 109 seats in the Parliament of Andalusia 55 seats needed for a majority | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| Opinion polls | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Registered | 6,641,903 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Turnout | 3,728,155 (56.1%) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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The 2018 election resulted in the first majority for right-of-centre parties in Andalusia in 36 years, paving the way for an alternative government to the Spanish Socialist Workers' Party of Andalusia (PSOE–A) despite the party remaining the most voted political force in the region. As a result, Juanma Moreno of the People's Party (PP) unseated PSOE's Susana Díaz as regional president, forming a coalition with Citizens (Cs), with confidence and supply from the Vox party. A number of disagreements saw Vox withdraw its support from the PP–Cs government in May 2021 and reject its proposed 2022 budget in November. Concurrently, Susana Díaz was replaced as regional PSOE leader by Seville mayor Juan Espadas in June 2021.
The election saw a landslide victory for the PP under a low turnout, with incumbent president Moreno being re-elected. The PP won in all eight provinces in Andalusia, with Seville flipping from the PSOE to the PP for the first time in Spanish democracy. In total, the PP took 58 of the 109 seats in Parliament, an increase of 32 from their 2018 result and an absolute majority of seats that was the first in its history, while taking 43% of the vote (up 22 points from the last election). The PSOE, which for the first time in history contested a regional election in Andalusia from opposition, got its worst result ever in the autonomous community, while Vox failed to fulfil expectations and saw only modest gains. Support for Cs collapsed, with the party being left out of parliament, whereas the left-wing vote divided between the For Andalusia (PorA) and Forward Andalusia (Adelante Andalucía) platforms.
Overview
Under the 2007 Statute of Autonomy, the Parliament of Andalusia was the unicameral legislature of the homonymous autonomous community, having legislative power in devolved matters, as well as the ability to grant or withdraw confidence from a regional president.[1] The electoral and procedural rules were supplemented by national law provisions.[2]
Date
The term of the Parliament of Andalusia expired four years after the date of its previous election, unless it was dissolved earlier. The election decree was required to be issued no later than 25 days before the scheduled expiration date of parliament and published on the following day in the Official Gazette of the Regional Government of Andalusia (BOJA), with election day taking place 54 days after the decree's publication (barring any date within from 1 July to 31 August).[3] The previous election was held on 2 December 2018, which meant that the chamber's term would have expired on 2 December 2022. The election decree was required to be published in the BOJA no later than 8 November 2022, setting the latest possible date for election day on 1 January 2023.
The regional president had the prerogative to dissolve the Parliament of Andalusia at any given time and call a snap election, provided that no motion of no confidence was in process and that dissolution did not occur before one year after a previous one.[4] In the event of an investiture process failing to elect a regional president within a two-month period from the first ballot, the Parliament was to be automatically dissolved and a fresh election called.[5]
In the aftermath of the May 2021 border crisis between Morocco and Spain, Vox announced it would end its confidence and supply arrangement with the PP–Cs ruling coalition after it became known that the authorities had agreed to take custody of 13 unaccompanied minors from Ceuta.[6] This made the prospect of a snap election likelier, particularly following the gains achieved by the PP in the 2021 Madrilenian regional election at the expense of Cs.[7] The Andalusian government initially responded by indicating a tentative date for the next election of Sunday, 27 November 2022, in order to dispel any rumours about the instability of the governing coalition.[8] In November 2021, amid concerns that parliamentary negotiations would fail to deliver a budget for 2022 due to opposition from both the PSOE–A and Vox, it was suggested that a snap election would be called for either 27 February or 6 March, coinciding with the festivities of Andalusia Day.[9] Together with speculation on an early election in Castile and León to be held in the spring of 2022,[10] it was initially suggested that the two elections could be held simultaneously.[11] On 30 November, several days after his 2022 budget was voted down by the parliament, President Juanma Moreno announced that an early election would be held but that his will was to set the election date for either June or October 2022,[12] which meant that the Castilian-Leonese election, finally called for 13 February, would be held earlier.[13] On 19 January 2022, Moreno announced that he would make up his mind about a snap election "throughout February", with an early dissolution that month bringing the regional election date to either April or May.[14][15] The negative PP results and Vox's breakthrough in Castile and León forced a coalition government between the two in the region, leading Moreno's government to temporarily put any plans for a snap election on hold,[16] with the originally scheduled date of 27 November returning to the spotlight.[17][18][19]
The appointment of Alberto Núñez Feijóo as new national PP leader on 2 April 2022—replacing Pablo Casado—sparked renewed electoral interest in Andalusia, culminating in Moreno's announcement on 24 April that the regional election would be held before the summer.[20] The following day it was confirmed that it would be held on 19 June, with the dissolution of parliament imminent.[21][22] The Parliament of Andalusia was officially dissolved on 26 April 2022 with the publication of the corresponding decree in the BOJA, setting election day for 19 June and scheduling for the chamber to reconvene on 14 July.[23]
Electoral system
Voting for the Parliament was based on universal suffrage, comprising all Spanish nationals over 18 years of age, registered in Andalusia and with full political rights, provided that they had not been deprived of the right to vote by a final sentence.[24][b] Additionally, non-resident citizens were required to apply for voting, a system known as "begged" voting (Spanish: Voto rogado).[26][27]
The Parliament of Andalusia had a minimum of 109 seats, with electoral provisions fixing its size at that number. All were elected in eight multi-member constituencies—corresponding to the provinces of Almería, Cádiz, Córdoba, Granada, Huelva, Jaén, Málaga and Seville, each of which was assigned an initial minimum of eight seats and the remaining 45 distributed in proportion to population (with the number of seats in each province not exceeding two times that of any other)—using the D'Hondt method and closed-list proportional voting, with a three percent-threshold of valid votes (including blank ballots) in each constituency.[28] The use of this electoral method resulted in a higher effective threshold depending on district magnitude and vote distribution.[29]
As a result of the aforementioned allocation, each Parliament constituency was entitled the following seats:[30]
The law did not provide for by-elections to fill vacant seats; instead, any vacancies arising after the proclamation of candidates and during the legislative term were filled by the next candidates on the party lists or, when required, by designated substitutes.[31]
Outgoing parliament
The table below shows the composition of the parliamentary groups in the chamber at the time of dissolution.[32]
| Groups | Parties | Legislators | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Seats | Total | ||||
| Socialist Parliamentary Group | PSOE–A | 33 | 33 | ||
| Andalusian People's Parliamentary Group | PP | 26 | 26 | ||
| Citizens Parliamentary Group | Cs | 21 | 21 | ||
| Vox Parliamentary Group in Andalusia | Vox | 11 | 11 | ||
| United We Can for Andalusia Parliamentary Group[33] |
IULV–CA | 6 | 6 | ||
| Non-Inscrits | Adelante Andalucía | 11[c] | 12 | ||
| FE de las JONS | 1[d] | ||||
Parties and candidates
The electoral law allowed for parties and federations registered in the interior ministry, alliances and groupings of electors to present lists of candidates. Parties and federations intending to form an alliance were required to inform the relevant electoral commission within 10 days of the election call, whereas groupings of electors needed to secure the signature of at least one percent of the electorate in the constituencies for which they sought election, disallowing electors from signing for more than one list.[39] Additionally, a balanced composition of men and women was required in the electoral lists through the use of a zipper system.[40]
Below is a list of the main parties and alliances which contested the election:
In September 2021, citizen collectives of the so-called "Empty Spain" (Spanish: España Vacía or España Vaciada), a coined term to refer to Spain's rural and largely unpopulated interior provinces,[55] agreed to look for formulas to contest the next elections in Spain, inspired by the success of the Teruel Existe candidacy (Spanish for "Teruel Exists") in the November 2019 Spanish general election.[56] By March 2022, the platform had announced that it would contest the Andalusian election in at least the Granada and Jaén provinces.[57] However, in May the platform ruled out a candidacy in Granada,[58] and only filed candidates in Jaén within the platform Jaén Merece Más (Spanish for "Jaén Deserves More").[59][60]
In light of the party's negative outlook in recent opinion polls, Citizens (Cs) did not rule out establishing an electoral alliance with the People's Party (PP) to ease the prospects for a renewal of their coalition government, with such possibility being suggested by both the national and regional leaders of the party, Inés Arrimadas and Juan Marín, on 4 December 2021.[61][62] The PP's national leadership rejected this possibility in the following days,[63] which contrasted with the regional branch of the party being willing to study a merger between the two parties ahead of a regional election.[64]
In December 2021, Más País, Greens Equo, Andalusia by Herself (AxSí) and Andalusian People's Initiative (IdPA) had agreed in a common platform—dubbed as Andaluces Levantaos, "Arise, o Andalusians", a reference to the Andalusian anthem—to contest the election.[47] On 2 February 2022, it was revealed that Podemos, United Left/The Greens–Assembly for Andalusia (IULV–CA), Adelante Andalucía and the Andaluces Levantaos's parties had started talks to probe a prospective electoral alliance of all various parties to the left wing of the PSOE, in which each would retain a degree of autonomy in parliament, in order to prevent a severe vote dispersion that would deprive them of many seats.[65] An early agreement was concluded in late March 2022,[66] and by April 2022 that the new joint alliance of all these parties (with the exception of Adelante Andalucía and AxSí) would be named as Por Andalucía (Spanish for "For Andalusia"),[48] for which Podemos suggested its Congress deputy Juan Antonio Delgado as the prospective candidate.[67][68] In the end, an electoral alliance was agreed between Podemos, IULV–CA, Greens Equo, Green Alliance (AV), Más País and Andalusian People's Initiative (IdPA), but because Podemos and AV failed to fill the required documentation ahead of the legal deadline, both parties found themselves unable to be awarded full party rights within the coalition.[45][49]
In May 2022, the town council in Salobreña in the province of Granada struck the name of Vox candidate Macarena Olona from its electoral roll after a recording emerged of former Vox Granada president Manuel Martín saying that she was registered at one of his properties without living there regularly or having a rental contract.[69] She was still allowed to stand as a candidate by the province's electoral board. Olona reported the town's PSOE mayor, María Eugenia Rufino González, to the Guardia Civil for alleged abuse of office and deprivation of the right to vote.[70]
Campaign
Timetable
The key dates are listed below (all times are CET):[71]
- 25 April: The election decree is issued with the countersign of the president, after deliberation in the Council of Government.
- 26 April: Formal dissolution of parliament and start of prohibition period on the inauguration of public works, services or projects.
- 29 April: Initial constitution of provincial and zone electoral commissions with judicial members.
- 2 May: Division of constituencies into polling sections and stations.
- 6 May: Deadline for parties and federations to report on their electoral alliances.
- 9 May: Deadline for electoral register consultation for the purpose of possible corrections.
- 16 May: Deadline for parties, federations, alliances, and groupings of electors to present electoral lists.
- 18 May: Publication of submitted electoral lists in the Official Gazette of the Regional Government of Andalusia (BOJA).
- 21 May: Deadline for non-resident citizens (electors residing abroad (CERA) and citizens temporarily absent from Spain) to apply for voting.
- 23 May: Official proclamation of validly submitted electoral lists.
- 24 May: Publication of proclaimed electoral lists in the BOJA.
- 25 May: Deadline for the selection of polling station members by sortition.
- 2 June: Deadline for the appointment of non-judicial members to provincial and zone electoral commissions.
- 3 June: Official start of electoral campaigning.[72]
- 9 June: Deadline to apply for postal voting.
- 14 June: Start of legal ban on electoral opinion polling publication; deadline for CERA citizens to vote by mail.
- 15 June: Deadline for postal and temporarily absent voting.
- 17 June: Last day of electoral campaigning;[72] deadline for CERA voting.
- 18 June: Official election silence ("reflection day").
- 19 June: Election day (polling stations open at 9 am and close at 8 pm or once voters present in a queue at/outside the polling station at 8 pm have cast their vote); provisional vote counting.
- 22 June: Start of general vote counting, including CERA votes.
- 25 June: Deadline for the general vote counting.
- 4 July: Deadline for the proclamation of elected members.
- 14 July: Deadline for the reconvening of parliament (date determined by the election decree, which for the 2022 election was set for 14 July).[73]
- 13 August: Deadline for the publication of definitive election results in the BOJA.
Party slogans
| Party or alliance | Original slogan | English translation | Ref. | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PSOE–A | « Andalucía quiere más » « Si votamos, ganamos » |
"Andalusia wants more" "If we vote, we win" |
[74][75][76] | |
| PP | « Andalucía avanza » | "Andalusia moves forward" | [74][75] | |
| Cs | « Andalucía, el cambio que funciona » | "Andalusia, the change that works" | [74][75] | |
| Vox | « Cambio real » | "Real change" | [74][75] | |
| PorA | « Por Andalucía » | "For Andalusia" | [74] | |
| Adelante Andalucía | « En defensa propia » | "In self-defense" | [74][75] | |
Debates
| Date | Organizer(s) | Moderator(s) | P Present[g] S Surrogate[h] NI Not invited I Invited A Absent invitee | |||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PSOE–A | PP | Cs | PorA | Vox | Adelante | Audience | Ref. | |||||
| 6 June | RTVE | Paloma Jara Xabier Fortes |
P Espadas |
P Moreno |
P Marín |
P Nieto |
P Olona |
P Rodríguez |
541,000 (20.8%)[i] |
[77] [78] | ||
| 13 June | RTVA | Blanca Rodríguez Fernando García |
P Espadas |
P Moreno |
P Marín |
P Nieto |
P Olona |
P Rodríguez |
328,000 (13.9%) |
[79] | ||
Opinion polls
Opinion polls
The tables below list opinion polling results in reverse chronological order, showing the most recent first and using the dates when the survey fieldwork was done, as opposed to the date of publication. Where the fieldwork dates are unknown, the date of publication is given instead. The highest percentage figure in each polling survey is displayed with its background shaded in the leading party's colour. If a tie ensues, this is applied to the figures with the highest percentages. The "Lead" column on the right shows the percentage-point difference between the parties with the highest percentages in a poll.
Graphical summary
Voting intention estimates
The table below lists weighted voting intention estimates. Refusals are generally excluded from the party vote percentages, while question wording and the treatment of "don't know" responses and those not intending to vote may vary between polling organisations. When available, seat projections determined by the polling organisations are also displayed below (or in place of) the voting estimates in a smaller font; 55 seats were required for an absolute majority in the Parliament of Andalusia.
- Color key:
Poll conducted after legal ban on opinion polls Exit poll
| Polling firm/Commissioner | Fieldwork date | Sample size | Turnout | XH | Lead | ||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 regional election | 19 Jun 2022 | N/a | 55.9 | 24.1 30 |
43.1 58 |
3.3 0 |
– | 13.5 14 |
1.0 0 |
[j] | 0.3 0 |
4.6 2 |
– | 0.1 0 |
7.7 5 |
0.5 0 |
19.0 |
| Data10/Okdiario[p 1] | 19 Jun 2022 | 1,000 | ? | 24.3 27/29 |
38.6 51/54 |
3.7 0/1 |
– | 18.2 17/20 |
– | [j] | – | 5.2 3/4 |
– | – | 7.2 5/7 |
– | 14.3 |
| SocioMétrica/El Español[p 2] | 19 Jun 2022 | ? | ? | 22.0 26/29 |
37.0 47/50 |
5.0 0/3 |
– | 17.0 17/20 |
– | [j] | – | 6.0 2/4 |
– | – | 9.0 7/9 |
– | 15.0 |
| Target Point/El Debate[p 3] | 16–19 Jun 2022 | 1,007 | ? | 24.3 29/31 |
40.7 52/54 |
2.9 0/1 |
– | 15.4 16/18 |
– | [j] | – | 4.9 3/4 |
– | – | 8.0 6/7 |
? 0/1 |
16.4 |
| NC Report/La Razón[p 4] | 15–18 Jun 2022 | 1,300 | 57.1 | 25.6 31/33 |
39.4 48/52 |
1.9 0 |
– | 12.6 15/18 |
– | [j] | – | 6.9 3 |
– | – | 8.0 6/8 |
– | 13.8 |
| GAD3/Canal Sur[p 5][p 6] | 3–18 Jun 2022 | 9,214 | ? | 22.9 26/30 |
44.4 58/61 |
2.4 0 |
– | 13.6 13/15 |
– | [j] | – | 5.5 3 |
– | – | 6.4 4/5 |
– | 21.5 |
| PP[p 7] | 17 Jun 2022 | ? | ? | ? 28/30 |
? 50/52 |
? 2 |
– | ? 14/17 |
– | [j] | – | ? 2 |
– | – | ? 8 |
– | ? |
| Data10/Okdiario[p 8] | 13 Jun 2022 | 1,000 | 65 | 25.3 29 |
34.6 47 |
4.0 0 |
– | 20.2 23 |
– | [j] | – | 4.9 3 |
– | – | 7.9 7 |
– | 9.3 |
| EM-Analytics/El Plural[p 9] | 12 Jun 2022 | ? | ? | 26.6 32 |
31.0 40 |
5.2 3 |
– | 20.8 25 |
– | [j] | – | 6.9 4 |
– | 0.2 0 |
7.8 5 |
0.4 0 |
4.4 |
| SocioMétrica/El Español[p 10] | 8–12 Jun 2022 | 1,912 | ? | 23.2 29/31 |
35.7 46/48 |
3.7 0/2 |
– | 18.9 20/22 |
– | [j] | – | 6.0 3/5 |
– | – | 8.9 6/8 |
– | 12.5 |
| Social Data/Grupo Viva[p 11] | 6–11 Jun 2022 | 2,405 | ? | 22.2 27/33 |
38.9 47/53 |
4.2 0/4 |
– | 16.3 16/22 |
– | [j] | 2.0 0 |
5.7 2/6 |
– | – | 7.3 4/8 |
– | 16.7 |
| EM-Analytics/El Plural[p 12] | 10 Jun 2022 | ? | ? | 26.8 32 |
30.4 37 |
5.4 3 |
– | 21.0 27 |
– | [j] | – | 6.9 5 |
– | 0.2 0 |
7.6 5 |
0.4 0 |
3.6 |
| IMOP/El Confidencial[p 13][p 14] | 8–10 Jun 2022 | 1,251 | ? | 22.4 28/30 |
39.5 50/53 |
3.6 0/2 |
– | 13.4 14/16 |
– | [j] | – | 5.6 3/4 |
– | – | 9.6 8/10 |
– | 17.1 |
| Sigma Dos/El Mundo[p 15] | 7–10 Jun 2022 | 1,300 | ? | 25.0 30/33 |
36.6 45/52 |
4.4 0/2 |
– | 14.9 15/18 |
– | [j] | – | 6.0 3 |
– | – | 9.7 8/9 |
– | 11.6 |
| NC Report/La Razón[p 13][p 16] | 4–10 Jun 2022 | 1,300 | ? | 25.0 31/33 |
36.8 48/50 |
2.7 0/1 |
– | 14.4 16/18 |
– | [j] | – | 6.1 3/4 |
– | – | 9.3 6/8 |
– | 11.8 |
| Thinking Heads[p 17] | 9 Jun 2022 | ? | ? | 23.7 | 36.5 | 4.5 | – | 17.9 | – | [j] | – | 8.2 | – | – | 6.2 | – | 12.8 |
| Agora Integral/Canarias Ahora[p 18][p 19] | 8–9 Jun 2022 | 1,000 | 58.1 | 24.9 30/33 |
36.5 45/47 |
3.0 0/2 |
– | 18.5 19/22 |
– | [j] | – | 5.5 1/3 |
– | – | 7.8 7/8 |
– | 11.6 |
| GAD3/ABC[p 13][p 20] | 7–9 Jun 2022 | 1,000 | ? | 25.6 33 |
41.2 53 |
2.2 0 |
– | 14.1 16 |
– | [j] | – | 5.8 3 |
– | – | 6.8 4 |
– | 15.6 |
| Target Point/El Debate[p 21] | 6–9 Jun 2022 | 1,002 | ? | 25.7 30/32 |
35.4 43/45 |
3.5 0/3 |
– | 18.0 20/22 |
– | [j] | – | 4.4 2/4 |
– | – | 8.9 8/10 |
– | 9.7 |
| Hamalgama Métrica/VozPópuli[p 22] | 6–9 Jun 2022 | 1,000 | 62.0 | 24.4 29 |
37.5 46 |
2.4 0 |
– | 18.1 22 |
2.0 0 |
[j] | 0.5 0 |
5.5 3 |
– | – | 8.3 9 |
– | 13.1 |
| DYM/Henneo[p 13][p 23] | 3–9 Jun 2022 | 2,313 | ? | 24.8 30/33 |
35.2 44/47 |
4.2 1/2 |
– | 16.2 18/19 |
– | [j] | – | 6.9 5/6 |
– | – | 7.9 6/7 |
– | 10.4 |
| Celeste-Tel/Onda Cero[p 13][p 24] | 31 May–9 Jun 2022 | 1,100 | ? | 25.4 33 |
36.9 49 |
2.8 0 |
– | 15.1 17 |
– | [j] | 0.5 0 |
6.3 3 |
– | – | 9.3 7 |
– | 11.5 |
| Data10/Okdiario[p 25] | 7–8 Jun 2022 | 1,000 | ? | 25.9 30 |
33.8 43 |
4.0 0 |
– | 21.0 26 |
– | [j] | – | 4.7 3 |
– | – | 7.8 7 |
– | 7.9 |
| 40dB/Prisa[p 26][p 27] | 3–8 Jun 2022 | 1,200 | ? | 25.8 30/34 |
36.7 46/49 |
3.8 0 |
– | 16.9 18/20 |
– | [j] | – | 5.3 2/3 |
– | – | 7.7 7 |
– | 10.9 |
| CIS[p 28][p 29] | 6–7 Jun 2022 | 3,083 | ? | 23.8– 26.6 |
35.2– 38.4 |
3.3– 4.5 |
– | 13.6– 15.8 |
– | [j] | 0.6– 1.2 |
4.5– 5.9 |
– | – | 9.4– 11.4 |
0.1– 0.3 |
11.4– 11.8 |
| Celeste-Tel/Onda Cero[p 30] | 6 Jun 2022 | ? | 57.9 | ? 32 |
36.3 45 |
3.8 1 |
– | 16.2 20 |
2.1 0 |
[j] | 0.7 0 |
? 3 |
– | – | ? 8 |
– | ? |
| EM-Analytics/El Plural[p 31] | 3 Jun 2022 | ? | ? | 27.3 33 |
30.0 38 |
5.4 3 |
– | 21.4 27 |
– | [j] | – | 6.6 3 |
– | 0.2 0 |
7.6 5 |
0.4 0 |
2.7 |
| easiest/PSOE[p 32][p 33] | 30 May–3 Jun 2022 | ? | 61.7 | 27.3 35 |
32.6 44 |
4.1 1 |
– | 17.1 18 |
– | [j] | – | 4.3 2 |
– | – | 9.3 9 |
– | 5.3 |
| NC Report/La Razón[p 34][p 35] | 26 May–3 Jun 2022 | 1,300 | 64.0 | 25.9 31/33 |
35.0 45/47 |
3.8 1/2 |
– | 15.5 17/18 |
– | [j] | – | 4.1 3/4 |
– | – | 10.0 8/9 |
– | 9.1 |
| KeyData/Público[p 36] | 2 Jun 2022 | ? | 57.8 | 25.7 32 |
36.7 47 |
3.3 0 |
– | 17.1 19 |
– | [j] | – | 4.3 2 |
– | – | 9.0 9 |
– | 11.0 |
| Data10/Okdiario[p 37] | 1–2 Jun 2022 | 1,000 | ? | 26.8 33 |
33.5 42 |
3.6 0 |
– | 21.2 26 |
– | [j] | – | 4.3 2 |
– | – | 7.9 6 |
– | 6.7 |
| Agora Integral/Canarias Ahora[p 38][p 39] | 30–31 May 2022 | 1,000 | 59.8 | 24.9 30/33 |
36.7 44/46 |
3.2 1/3 |
– | 18.9 20/23 |
– | [j] | – | 4.8 1/2 |
– | – | 7.9 8/9 |
– | 11.8 |
| Data10/Okdiario[p 40] | 30 May 2022 | ? | ? | 27.2 34 |
33.1 41 |
? 0 |
– | 21.1 25 |
– | [j] | – | 4.6 3 |
– | – | 7.8 6 |
– | 5.9 |
| CIS[p 41][p 42] | 17–28 May 2022 | 7,539 | ? | 25.2 32/36 |
35.6 47/49 |
4.1 1/3 |
– | 15.3 17/21 |
– | [j] | 2.0 0 |
4.7 2 |
– | 0.2 0 |
9.7 9/10 |
0.7 0/1 |
10.4 |
| PP[p 43] | 26 May 2022 | ? | ? | ? 30 |
? 49 |
? 4 |
– | ? 17 |
– | [j] | – | ? 1 |
– | – | ? 8 |
– | ? |
| SocioMétrica/El Español[p 44] | 24–26 May 2022 | 1,000 | ? | 24.7 30 |
35.7 47 |
3.1 0 |
– | 19.4 22 |
– | [j] | 0.9 0 |
4.1 1 |
– | – | 9.8 9 |
– | 11.0 |
| Sigma Dos/El Mundo[p 45][p 46] | 23–26 May 2022 | 1,300 | ? | 25.4 30/32 |
36.1 46/50 |
4.9 2/3 |
– | 15.1 16/17 |
– | [j] | – | 4.8 2 |
– | – | 10.5 8/10 |
– | 10.7 |
| EM-Analytics/El Plural[p 47][p 48] | 12 Apr–25 May 2022 | 5,000 | ? | 28.3 33 |
29.2 36 |
5.5 3 |
– | 21.2 27 |
– | [j] | – | 6.7 5 |
– | 0.2 0 |
7.7 5 |
0.4 0 |
0.9 |
| 40dB/Prisa[p 49][p 50] | 18–23 May 2022 | 1,200 | ? | 26.0 33 |
36.5 46/48 |
3.0 0 |
– | 16.4 18 |
– | [j] | – | 6.0 3/4 |
– | – | 8.6 7/8 |
– | 10.5 |
| KeyData/Público[p 51] | 19 May 2022 | ? | 57.9 | 27.0 33 |
35.2 46 |
3.8 0 |
– | 17.0 20 |
– | [j] | – | 4.1 2 |
– | – | 8.7 8 |
– | 8.2 |
| Data10/Okdiario[p 52] | 18–19 May 2022 | 1,000 | 66 | 27.1 34 |
33.8 41 |
? 0 |
– | 19.8 25 |
– | [j] | – | 4.3 2 |
– | – | 8.2 7 |
– | 6.7 |
| Metroscopia[p 53][p 54] | 17–19 May 2022 | 1,400 | ? | 27.0 32/33 |
36.8 45/46 |
2.5 0 |
– | 18.8 19/20 |
– | [j] | – | 2.5 1 |
– | – | 10.5 10 |
– | 9.8 |
| EM-Analytics/El Plural[p 55] | 12–19 May 2022 | 4,059 | ? | 28.4 33 |
29.1 36 |
5.1 3 |
– | 20.9 26 |
– | [j] | – | 6.6 5 |
– | 0.2 0 |
8.4 6 |
0.4 0 |
0.7 |
| Data10/Okdiario[p 56][p 57] | 14–15 May 2022 | 1,000 | 66 | 27.1 34 |
34.1 42 |
? 0 |
– | 19.5 24 |
– | [j] | – | 4.0 2 |
– | – | 8.5 7 |
– | 7.0 |
| CENTRA/CEA[p 58] | 3–13 May 2022 | 4,500 | 59.7 | 24.2 31/32 |
39.2 47/49 |
4.8 1/2 |
– | 17.3 21/23 |
– | [j] | – | 3.6 1 |
– | – | 6.6 5 |
– | 15.0 |
| EM-Analytics/El Plural[p 59] | 6 Apr–12 May 2022 | 3,350 | ? | 28.2 33 |
28.9 36 |
5.2 3 |
– | 21.1 27 |
– | [j] | – | 6.1 3 |
– | 0.2 0 |
9.0 7 |
0.4 0 |
0.7 |
| Sigma Dos/Antena 3[p 60] | 8 May 2022 | ? | ? | 26.4 32/33 |
35.9 48/49 |
4.2 0/1 |
– | 14.7 16/17 |
– | [j] | – | 4.6 2 |
– | – | 10.6 9/10 |
– | 9.5 |
| EM-Analytics/El Plural[p 61] | 6 May 2022 | ? | ? | 28.0 34 |
29.3 38 |
5.5 3 |
– | 20.9 26 |
– | [j] | – | 5.7 2 |
– | 0.4 0 |
8.3 6 |
0.4 0 |
1.3 |
| SocioMétrica/El Español[p 62][p 63] | 4–6 May 2022 | 1,000 | ? | 25.8 33/35 |
34.9 45/47 |
3.9 0/2 |
– | 16.1 20/22 |
– | 5.1 2 |
– | 4.3 1 |
– | – | 6.5 4/5 |
– | 9.1 |
| ? | 25.8 31/33 |
34.9 44/46 |
3.9 0/2 |
– | 16.1 19/21 |
– | [j] | – | 4.3 1/2 |
– | – | 10.8 8/10 |
– | 9.1 | |||
| Target Point/El Debate[p 64] | 2–5 May 2022 | 1,000 | ? | 26.0 30/32 |
36.1 43/45 |
3.0 0/2 |
– | 16.6 18/20 |
– | [j] | – | 4.3 3/4 |
– | – | 9.5 10/11 |
– | 10.1 |
| Hamalgama Métrica/VozPópuli[p 65] | 29 Apr–4 May 2022 | 1,000 | ? | 27.1 33 |
37.2 48 |
3.0 0 |
– | 16.9 20 |
2.0 0 |
[j] | 0.7 0 |
3.3 1 |
– | – | 8.0 7 |
– | 10.1 |
| EM-Analytics/El Plural[p 66][p 67] | 29 Apr 2022 | ? | ? | 27.9 34 |
30.1 41 |
5.1 3 |
– | 19.2 22 |
– | [j] | – | 5.4 2 |
– | 0.3 0 |
8.8 7 |
0.4 0 |
2.2 |
| GAD3/NIUS[p 68] | 26–28 Apr 2022 | 1,002 | 65.0 | 27.6 34 |
38.2 51 |
3.1 0 |
– | 14.0 17 |
1.6 0 |
[j] | – | 3.5 1 |
– | – | 7.8 6 |
– | 10.6 |
| KeyData/Público[p 69] | 27 Apr 2022 | ? | 59.5 | 26.0 33 |
33.5 44 |
4.0 2 |
– | 17.7 20 |
– | [j] | – | 3.5 2 |
– | – | 8.3 8 |
– | 7.5 |
| Agora Integral/Canarias Ahora[p 70][p 71] | 25–27 Apr 2022 | 1,000 | 57.6 | 25.9 32/34 |
33.7 44/46 |
4.5 1/3 |
– | 17.9 19/21 |
– | 7.8 8/9 |
2.9 0/2 |
3.8 1/3 |
– | – | – | – | 7.8 |
| IMOP/El Confidencial[p 72][p 73] | 25–26 Apr 2022 | 953 | 68.0 | 27.7 33/35 |
40.2 50/53 |
2.8 0 |
– | 13.5 14/15 |
– | [j] | – | 3.1 0/1 |
– | – | 7.9 6/7 |
– | 12.5 |
| Data10/Okdiario[p 74][p 75] | 25 Apr 2022 | 1,000 | ? | 27.4 34 |
35.5 45 |
3.6 0 |
– | 18.3 22 |
– | [j] | – | 2.9 1 |
– | – | 9.5 7 |
– | 8.1 |
| NC Report/La Razón[p 76] | 18–22 Apr 2022 | 1,000 | ? | 25.1 31/33 |
33.3 45/47 |
4.9 1/3 |
– | 16.2 17/18 |
– | 8.9 9/10 |
2.4 0 |
5.1 2/3 |
– | – | – | – | 8.2 |
| Sigma Dos/El Mundo[p 77][p 78] | 18–21 Apr 2022 | 2,200 | ? | 25.7 33 |
33.1 44 |
4.7 2 |
– | 17.6 20 |
– | 9.4 8/9 |
3.2 0/1 |
3.1 0/1 |
– | – | – | – | 7.4 |
| SocioMétrica/El Español[p 79] | 14–16 Apr 2022 | 1,000 | ? | 25.0 31 |
[k] | [k] | – | 16.9 20 |
– | 7.8 6 |
3.0 0 |
5.9 3 |
37.1 49 |
– | – | – | 12.1 |
| ? | 24.8 33 |
34.0 46 |
3.9 0 |
– | 16.5 20 |
– | 7.7 7 |
3.1 0 |
5.8 3 |
– | – | – | – | 9.2 | |||
| CENTRA/CEA[p 80] | 21–31 Mar 2022 | 3,600 | 59.8 | 25.3 30/31 |
34.0 43/44 |
4.3 2 |
– | 19.0 22 |
2.3 0/1 |
9.1 10 |
– | 2.8 0/1 |
– | – | – | – | 8.7 |
| PP[p 81] | 18 Mar 2022 | ? | ? | ? 30/31 |
? 35/36 |
? 0/1 |
– | ? 22/23 |
– | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | ? |
| Deimos/VozPópuli[p 82] | 20–24 Feb 2022 | 1,500 | ? | 27.8 32/35 |
32.5 38/41 |
3.6 0/3 |
– | 20.0 23/24 |
– | 8.6 8/11 |
1.1 0 |
3.5 1/2 |
– | – | – | – | 4.7 |
| Social Data/Grupo Viva[p 83] | 14–18 Feb 2022 | 2,400 | ? | 24.3 28/34 |
38.0 48/53 |
4.1 1/4 |
– | 16.7 17/22 |
– | 7.2 4/8 |
2.1 0/1 |
5.1 1/5 |
– | – | – | – | 13.7 |
| EM-Analytics/Electomanía[p 84] | 1 Jan–14 Feb 2022 | 1,472 | ? | 28.8 37 |
29.9 38 |
5.0 3 |
– | 18.2 21 |
– | 7.7 6 |
1.6 0 |
6.0 3 |
– | 1.8 1 |
– | – | 1.1 |
| EM-Analytics/Electomanía[p 85] | 15 Nov–14 Jan 2022 | 1,843 | ? | 28.9 36 |
30.6 40 |
5.0 3 |
– | 17.6 21 |
– | 7.6 5 |
1.5 0 |
6.1 3 |
– | 1.9 1 |
– | – | 1.7 |
| Sigma Dos/El Mundo[p 86][p 87] | 14 Dec–10 Jan 2022 | 3,404 | ? | 26.7 32/33 |
36.9 48/49 |
6.1 3/4 |
– | 13.6 13/15 |
– | 8.3 7/8 |
1.6 0 |
4.4 2 |
– | – | – | – | 10.2 |
| CENTRA/CEA[p 88] | 24 Nov–13 Dec 2021 | 3,600 | 60.9 | 25.1 31/33 |
35.1 44/46 |
5.5 4/5 |
– | 10.9 12/13 |
– | 10.7 11/12 |
2.6 1 |
4.4 2/3 |
– | – | – | – | 10.0 |
| SocioMétrica/El Español[p 89][p 90][p 91] | 3–6 Dec 2021 | 1,200 | ? | 26.9 32 |
[k] | [k] | – | 16.0 19 |
– | 6.9 5 |
1.3 0 |
6.2 3 |
39.6 50 |
– | – | – | 12.7 |
| ? | 26.2 33 |
36.4 47 |
4.9 3 |
– | 15.0 18 |
– | 6.8 5 |
1.1 0 |
6.0 3 |
– | – | – | – | 10.2 | |||
| NC Report/La Razón[p 92][p 93] | 2–12 Nov 2021 | 1,000 | ? | 27.2 32/34 |
34.9 44/46 |
5.1 2/3 |
– | 14.7 15/17 |
– | 11.2 10/12 |
– | 3.4 1/2 |
– | – | – | – | 7.7 |
| CENTRA/CEA[p 94] | 18–30 Sep 2021 | 3,600 | 61.2 | 23.1 24/27 |
38.3 47/51 |
8.3 7 |
– | 12.8 13/15 |
– | 11.0 12/14 |
– | 2.9 0/1 |
– | – | – | – | 15.2 |
| NC Report/La Razón[p 95] | 2–5 Aug 2021 | 1,000 | 58.6 | 28.1 33/35 |
33.9 40/42 |
4.9 2/4 |
– | 14.5 15/17 |
– | 11.7 11/12 |
– | 3.2 1/2 |
– | – | – | – | 5.8 |
| EM-Analytics/Electomanía[p 96] | 18 May–29 Jun 2021 | 1,703 | ? | 27.6 36 |
36.1 46 |
4.5 1 |
– | 14.7 18 |
– | 8.1 6 |
– | 5.1 2 |
– | – | – | – | 8.5 |
| CENTRA/CEA[p 97] | 15–24 Jun 2021 | 3,600 | 60.2 | 23.3 28/29 |
37.9 48/52 |
8.7 7/8 |
– | 11.4 12/13 |
– | 9.2 9/10 |
– | 3.6 0/2 |
– | – | – | – | 14.6 |
| Sigma Dos/El Mundo[p 98][p 99] | 7–9 Jun 2021 | 1,000 | ? | 26.1 31 |
36.7 43 |
4.2 4 |
– | 14.8 17 |
– | 7.6 8 |
– | 5.5 6 |
– | – | – | – | 10.6 |
| Social Data/Grupo Viva[p 100] | 20 May–3 Jun 2021 | 1,924 | ? | 25.8 30/38 |
38.1 46/54 |
3.4 1/5 |
– | 15.5 16/24 |
– | 6.4 5/13 |
– | 5.1 2/8 |
– | – | – | – | 12.3 |
| NC Report/La Razón[p 101][p 102] | 26–30 May 2021 | 900 | 59.0 | 30.3 38/39 |
31.8 39/41 |
5.1 2/4 |
– | 15.1 16/17 |
– | 12.6 10/11 |
– | 2.7 0 |
– | – | – | – | 1.5 |
| EM-Analytics/Electomanía[p 103] | 14 May 2021 | 2,125 | ? | 28.5 34 |
35.3 44 |
5.2 3 |
– | 14.2 16 |
– | 9.5 10 |
– | 5.5 2 |
– | – | – | – | 6.8 |
| NC Report/La Razón[p 104] | 11–14 May 2021 | 900 | 58.6 | 30.7 39 |
30.2 39 |
6.8 3 |
– | 14.1 15 |
– | 13.7 13 |
– | 2.5 0 |
– | – | – | – | 0.5 |
| Invest Group/CEA[p 105] | 18–25 Mar 2021 | 3,600 | 50.1 | 23.5 26/29 |
31.2 40/43 |
8.1 7 |
– | 18.1 20/21 |
– | 10.6 10/12 |
– | 3.5 0/2 |
– | – | – | – | 7.7 |
| GAD3/Secuoya[p 106][p 107] | 5–18 Mar 2021 | 3,000 | ? | 27.1 32/33 |
37.6 48/53 |
5.6 2/4 |
– | 14.1 15/18 |
1.4 0 |
7.7 4/5 |
– | 3.9 1 |
– | – | – | – | 10.5 |
| EM-Analytics/Electomanía[p 108] | 26 Feb 2021 | 1,500 | ? | 29.6 35 |
29.3 36 |
10.9 11 |
– | 13.5 15 |
– | 10.6 11 |
– | 4.7 1 |
– | – | – | – | 0.3 |
| Deimos Estadística[p 109][p 110] | 15–24 Feb 2021 | 1,500 | ? | 32.3 38/40 |
28.5 33/34 |
7.0 5/7 |
– | 15.7 18/19 |
– | 8.8 8/10 |
– | 3.3 2/3 |
– | – | – | – | 3.8 |
| Dataestudios/ABC[p 111] | 7–13 Jan 2021 | ? | ? | 25.2 29/31 |
26.3 33/36 |
10.4 10/12 |
– | 15.9 17/20 |
– | 10.9 12/14 |
– | 4.2 1/3 |
– | – | – | – | 1.1 |
| Celeste-Tel/PSOE[p 112][p 113] | 30 Nov–14 Dec 2020 | 1,000 | ? | 31.4 40 |
25.3 32 |
13.2 13 |
– | 11.9 12 |
– | 11.8 12 |
– | 2.4 0 |
– | – | – | – | 6.1 |
| Invest Group/CEA[p 114] | 23 Nov–3 Dec 2020 | 3,600 | 48.0 | 23.5 27/30 |
26.6 35/38 |
12.2 13/15 |
– | 15.7 16/19 |
– | 10.3 10/12 |
– | 4.8 1/3 |
– | – | – | – | 3.1 |
| NC Report/La Razón[p 115][p 116] | 2 Dec 2020 | 900 | ? | 28.9 37/38 |
25.9 31/32 |
12.7 13/14 |
– | 12.0 12/13 |
– | 11.3 11/12 |
– | 4.8 2/4 |
– | – | – | – | 3.0 |
| Hamalgama Métrica/Okdiario[p 117] | 30 Nov–1 Dec 2020 | 800 | ? | 28.3 37 |
25.5 31 |
11.5 12 |
– | 13.2 14 |
– | 12.5 14 |
– | 3.0 1 |
– | – | – | – | 2.8 |
| Dialoga Consultores[p 118] | 23–27 Nov 2020 | 1,500 | ? | 25.6 29/32 |
28.1 36/39 |
11.8 9/13 |
– | 12.5 16/19 |
– | 9.8 7/10 |
– | 6.1 4/7 |
– | – | – | – | 2.5 |
| SW Demoscopia/Grupo Viva[p 119][p 120] | 16–26 Nov 2020 | ? | ? | 26.9 31/33 |
28.7 34/37 |
10.6 11/14 |
– | 14.1 13/16 |
– | 5.6 3/6 |
– | 9.8 8/11 |
– | – | – | – | 1.8 |
| ElectoPanel/Electomanía[p 121] | 30 Sep–13 Nov 2020 | 7,230 | ? | 30.4 38 |
31.1 38 |
11.6 11 |
– | 11.1 11 |
– | 10.8 11 |
– | 4.1 0 |
– | – | – | – | 0.7 |
| Invest Group/CEA[p 122] | 15–25 Sep 2020 | 3,600 | 51.8 | 26.4 29/32 |
30.2 39/42 |
11.9 13/14 |
– | 13.3 14/15 |
– | 10.8 10/13 |
– | 4.2 0/2 |
– | – | – | – | 3.8 |
| Celeste-Tel/PSOE[p 123][p 124] | 26 Jun–4 Jul 2020 | 1,000 | ? | 31.1 40 |
26.0 31 |
11.2 10 |
– | 10.9 11 |
– | 16.6 17 |
– | – | – | – | – | – | 5.1 |
| Invest Group/CEA[p 125] | 18 Jun–1 Jul 2020 | 3,600 | 58.0 | 30.4 35/37 |
30.8 36/37 |
11.2 12/13 |
– | 10.1 11/12 |
– | 9.4 9/11 |
– | 4.0 2/3 |
– | – | – | – | 0.4 |
| SW Demoscopia/Grupo Viva[p 126][p 127] | 8–15 May 2020 | 1,000 | ? | 25.1 28/31 |
26.8 28/32 |
13.1 13/16 |
– | 14.7 15/18 |
– | 15.8 16/19 |
– | – | – | – | – | – | 1.7 |
| ElectoPanel/Electomanía[p 128][p 129] | 1 Apr–15 May 2020 | ? | ? | 28.0 36 |
33.1 44 |
10.3 11 |
– | 9.7 9 |
– | 8.4 7 |
– | 4.7 2 |
– | – | – | – | 5.1 |
| ElectoPanel/Electomanía[p 130] | 23–27 Feb 2020 | 1,100 | ? | 25.5 32 |
24.7 31 |
8.1 8 |
– | 19.7 23 |
– | 14.4 15 |
– | 4.0 0 |
– | – | – | – | 0.8 |
| GAD3/ABC[p 131][p 132] | 17–21 Feb 2020 | 802 | ? | 28.6 33/36 |
26.5 32/33 |
9.3 8/10 |
15.8 16/17 |
14.7 16/17 |
– | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | 2.1 |
| SW Demoscopia/Grupo Viva[p 133][p 134] | 5–18 Feb 2020 | 1,310 | ? | 25.7 29/31 |
26.4 29/32 |
9.6 9/13 |
17.1 17/21 |
15.4 16/19 |
– | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | 0.7 |
| Celeste-Tel/PSOE[p 135][p 136] | 20–30 Jan 2020 | 2,600 | 61.1 | 31.6 40 |
25.1 30 |
12.2 11 |
17.0 17 |
10.7 11 |
– | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | 6.5 |
| ElectoPanel/Electomanía[p 137] | 9 Jan 2020 | ? | ? | 24.8 29 |
24.0 29 |
7.3 6 |
17.9 18 |
21.0 27 |
– | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | 0.8 |
| Nexo/CEA[p 138] | 25 Nov–12 Dec 2019 | 2,627 | 57.0 | 27.8 | 24.5 | 10.5 | 15.6 | 16.2 | 1.4 | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | 3.3 |
| November 2019 general election | 10 Nov 2019 | N/a | 65.9 | 33.4 (42) |
20.5 (24) |
8.1 (7) |
– | 20.4 (23) |
1.1 (0) |
13.1 (13) |
1.3 (0) |
– | – | – | – | – | 12.9 |
| Celeste-Tel/PSOE[p 139] | 15–25 Jul 2019 | 2,600 | 60.8 | 33.6 42 |
24.6 30 |
14.0 13 |
16.1 17 |
8.2 7 |
– | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | 9.0 |
| Asé–Psiké/CEA[p 140] | 10–26 Jun 2019 | 2,567 | 60.2 | 30.5 | 24.8 | 17.8 | 14.0 | 8.1 | 1.2 | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | 5.7 |
| 2019 EP election | 26 May 2019 | N/a | 58.4 | 40.5 (54) |
22.3 (27) |
13.0 (12) |
– | 7.6 (8) |
1.4 (0) |
11.6 (12) |
– | – | – | – | – | – | 18.2 |
| April 2019 general election | 28 Apr 2019 | N/a | 70.8 | 34.2 (42) |
17.2 (19) |
17.7 (20) |
– | 13.4 (13) |
1.4 (0) |
14.3 (15) |
– | – | – | – | – | – | 16.5 |
| 2018 regional election | 2 Dec 2018 | N/a | 56.6 | 27.9 33 |
20.7 26 |
18.3 21 |
16.2 17 |
11.0 12 |
1.9 0 |
– | – | – | – | – | – | – | 7.2 |
Voting preferences
The table below lists raw, unweighted voting preferences.
- Color key:
Poll conducted after legal ban on opinion polls
| Polling firm/Commissioner | Fieldwork date | Sample size | Lead | |||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 regional election[l] | 19 Jun 2022 | N/a | 13.9 | 24.9 | 1.9 | – | 7.8 | [j] | 0.2 | 2.6 | 4.4 | N/a | 41.6 | 11.0 |
| GAD3/Canal Sur[p 141] | 3–18 Jun 2022 | 9,214 | 18.0 | 42.0 | – | – | 10.0 | [j] | – | 4.0 | 4.0 | – | – | 24.0 |
| Social Data/Grupo Viva[p 11] | 6–11 Jun 2022 | 2,405 | 16.8 | 33.9 | 2.3 | – | 9.4 | [j] | 0.5 | 3.4 | 3.8 | 15.8 | 6.2 | 17.1 |
| 40dB/Prisa[p 27] | 3–8 Jun 2022 | 1,200 | 15.0 | 26.6 | 3.1 | – | 10.2 | [j] | – | 5.3 | 6.8 | 19.4 | 5.1 | 11.6 |
| CIS[p 28] | 6–7 Jun 2022 | 3,083 | 16.9 | 32.6 | 2.3 | – | 8.4 | [j] | – | 3.6 | 5.8 | 22.5 | 3.5 | 15.7 |
| CIS[p 41] | 17–28 May 2022 | 7,539 | 16.0 | 31.5 | 1.7 | – | 7.9 | [j] | – | 2.9 | 6.8 | 25.1 | 3.8 | 15.5 |
| SocioMétrica/El Español[p 142] | 24–26 May 2022 | 1,000 | 13.7 | 22.1 | 2.5 | – | 12.4 | [j] | – | 3.2 | 8.2 | 17.9 | 17.3 | 8.4 |
| 40dB/Prisa[p 50] | 18–23 May 2022 | 1,200 | 14.5 | 24.9 | 2.1 | – | 9.9 | [j] | – | 6.1 | 8.4 | 21.5 | 6.2 | 10.4 |
| CENTRA/CEA[p 58] | 3–13 May 2022 | 4,500 | 19.3 | 33.4 | 3.8 | – | 13.8 | [j] | – | 2.9 | 5.0 | 14.6 | 3.5 | 14.1 |
| SocioMétrica/El Español[p 79] | 14–16 Apr 2022 | 1,000 | 17.5 | 23.5 | 2.9 | – | 11.0 | 4.2 | 2.4 | 4.6 | – | 14.7 | 15.4 | 6.0 |
| CENTRA/CEA[p 80] | 21–31 Mar 2022 | 3,600 | 18.2 | 30.6 | 2.4 | – | 14.6 | 6.6 | 0.1 | 2.1 | – | 4.6 | 12.3 | 12.4 |
| CENTRA/CEA[p 88] | 24 Nov–13 Dec 2021 | 3,600 | 14.8 | 32.1 | 3.1 | – | 6.9 | 6.9 | 0.8 | 3.0 | – | 16.4 | 5.6 | 17.3 |
| CENTRA/CEA[p 94] | 18–30 Sep 2021 | 3,600 | 10.8 | 36.4 | 5.2 | – | 8.0 | 5.1 | – | 1.8 | – | 16.0 | 7.1 | 25.6 |
| CENTRA/CEA[p 97] | 15–24 Jun 2021 | 3,600 | 12.4 | 34.6 | 4.8 | – | 5.6 | 3.1 | – | 1.9 | – | 23.4 | 7.6 | 22.2 |
| Invest Group/CEA[p 105] | 18–25 Mar 2021 | 3,600 | 15.9 | 25.6 | 4.7 | – | 12.8 | 6.5 | – | 2.4 | – | 13.4 | 10.5 | 9.7 |
| Invest Group/CEA[p 114] | 23 Nov–3 Dec 2020 | 3,600 | 14.0 | 24.3 | 8.4 | – | 10.6 | 5.3 | – | 3.0 | – | 14.0 | 10.8 | 10.3 |
| Invest Group/CEA[p 122] | 15–25 Sep 2020 | 3,600 | 16.5 | 22.0 | 7.9 | – | 10.5 | 7.1 | – | 3.3 | – | 12.3 | 11.4 | 5.5 |
| Invest Group/CEA[p 125] | 18 Jun–1 Jul 2020 | 3,600 | 23.1 | 21.6 | 6.8 | – | 7.6 | 7.1 | – | 3.1 | – | 11.8 | 10.7 | 1.5 |
| Nexo/CEA[p 138] | 25 Nov–12 Dec 2019 | 2,627 | 22.1 | 18.1 | 6.9 | 13.3 | 12.2 | – | – | – | – | 10.8 | 7.6 | 4.0 |
| November 2019 general election[l] | 10 Nov 2019 | N/a | 22.4 | 13.8 | 5.4 | – | 13.7 | 8.8 | 0.9 | – | – | N/a | 31.8 | 8.6 |
| Asé–Psiké/CEA[p 140] | 10–26 Jun 2019 | 2,567 | 22.4 | 26.3 | 12.7 | 9.9 | 7.2 | – | – | – | – | 10.3 | 5.4 | 3.9 |
| 2019 EP election[l] | 26 May 2019 | N/a | 24.2 | 13.3 | 7.8 | – | 4.5 | 6.9 | – | – | – | N/a | 39.5 | 10.9 |
| April 2019 general election[l] | 28 Apr 2019 | N/a | 24.8 | 12.4 | 12.8 | – | 9.7 | 10.3 | – | – | – | N/a | 26.7 | 12.0 |
| 2018 regional election[l] | 2 Dec 2018 | N/a | 16.0 | 11.9 | 10.5 | 9.3 | 6.3 | – | – | – | – | N/a | 41.3 | 4.1 |
Victory preferences
The table below lists opinion polling on the victory preferences for each party in the event of a regional election taking place.
| Polling firm/Commissioner | Fieldwork date | Sample size | Other/ None |
Lead | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SocioMétrica/El Español[p 143] | 8–12 Jun 2022 | 1,912 | 16.9 | 22.8 | 4.8 | 13.7 | 6.4 | 9.4 | 26.1 | – | 5.9 |
| CIS[p 28] | 6–7 Jun 2022 | 3,083 | 21.1 | 38.9 | 2.7 | 8.0 | 3.7 | 6.7 | 6.7 | 12.0 | 17.8 |
| CIS[p 41] | 17–28 May 2022 | 7,539 | 20.9 | 38.2 | 2.4 | 7.9 | 3.3 | 7.4 | 6.6 | 13.2 | 17.3 |
| CENTRA/CEA[p 58] | 3–13 May 2022 | 4,500 | 22.4 | 34.8 | 3.4 | 13.4 | 2.4 | 4.5 | 8.2 | 11.0 | 12.4 |
Victory likelihood
The table below lists opinion polling on the perceived likelihood of victory for each party in the event of a regional election taking place.
| Polling firm/Commissioner | Fieldwork date | Sample size | Other/ None |
Lead | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SocioMétrica/El Español[p 143] | 8–12 Jun 2022 | 1,912 | 11.4 | 57.3 | 0.5 | 7.4 | – | 0.9 | 1.5 | 20.9 | – | 45.9 |
| CIS[p 28] | 6–7 Jun 2022 | 3,083 | 9.5 | 74.2 | – | 2.0 | – | – | 0.3 | 0.9 | 13.2 | 64.7 |
| CIS[p 41] | 17–28 May 2022 | 7,539 | 11.6 | 69.6 | – | 2.6 | – | – | – | 1.7 | 14.6 | 58.0 |
| CENTRA/CEA[p 58] | 3–13 May 2022 | 4,500 | 8.5 | 68.4 | 0.2 | 1.6 | – | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.6 | 12.0 | 59.9 |
| CENTRA/CEA[p 94] | 18–30 Sep 2021 | 3,600 | 14.7 | 68.1 | 0.7 | 1.2 | – | – | – | 0.3 | 15.1 | 53.4 |
| CENTRA/CEA[p 97] | 15–24 Jun 2021 | 3,600 | 13.5 | 58.9 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.3 | – | 0.2 | 25.9 | 45.4 |
| Invest Group/CEA[p 105] | 18–25 Mar 2021 | 3,600 | 21.1 | 41.9 | 2.2 | 7.2 | 3.9 | 0.6 | – | 1.6 | 21.6 | 20.8 |
Preferred President
The table below lists opinion polling on leader preferences to become president of the Regional Government of Andalusia.
| Polling firm/Commissioner | Fieldwork date | Sample size | Other/ None/ Not care |
Lead | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Díaz PSOE–A |
Montero PSOE–A |
Espadas PSOE–A |
Moreno PP |
Marín Cs |
Hernández Vox |
Olona Vox |
Gavira Vox |
Velarde UPporA |
Delgado UPporA |
Rodríguez AA |
Nieto PorA | ||||||
| Social Data/Grupo Viva[p 11] | 6–11 Jun 2022 | 2,405 | – | – | 12.8 | 49.7 | 2.3 | – | 6.8 | – | – | – | 5.8 | 2.1 | – | – | 36.9 |
| GAD3/ABC[p 144] | 7–9 Jun 2022 | 1,000 | – | – | 14.7 | 46.9 | 0.8 | – | 6.8 | – | – | – | 3.6 | 3.3 | 14.0 | 9.9 | 32.2 |
| 40dB/Prisa[p 27] | 3–8 Jun 2022 | 1,200 | – | – | 11.7 | 38.4 | 2.6 | – | 7.9 | – | – | – | 6.8 | 4.3 | 14.6 | 13.7 | 26.7 |
| CIS[p 28] | 6–7 Jun 2022 | 3,083 | – | – | 16.0 | 42.9 | 2.8 | – | 6.8 | – | – | – | 6.8 | 4.2 | 6.4 | 14.1 | 26.9 |
| DYM/Henneo[p 145] | 3–6 Jun 2022 | 2,313 | – | – | 12.9 | 38.5 | 1.9 | – | 9.3 | – | – | – | 8.0 | 5.3 | – | 24.1 | 25.6 |
| CIS[p 41] | 17–28 May 2022 | 7,539 | – | – | 13.4 | 44.0 | 1.6 | – | 6.6 | – | – | – | 5.8 | 3.7 | 8.5 | 16.5 | 30.6 |
| SocioMétrica/El Español[p 44] | 24–26 May 2022 | 1,000 | – | – | 18.2 | 41.3 | 3.2 | – | 18.5 | – | – | – | 14.0 | 4.9 | – | – | 22.8 |
| 40dB/Prisa[p 50] | 18–23 May 2022 | 1,200 | – | – | 9.9 | 36.5 | 2.6 | – | 7.2 | – | – | – | 8.8 | 5.0 | 12.1 | 17.8 | 26.6 |
| CENTRA/CEA[p 58] | 3–13 May 2022 | 4,500 | – | – | 14.5 | 49.8 | 1.9 | – | 4.7 | – | – | – | 4.0 | 1.3 | 12.3 | 11.5 | 35.3 |
| SocioMétrica/El Español[p 79] | 14–16 Apr 2022 | 1,000 | – | – | 15.2 | 36.6 | 4.1 | – | – | 9.3 | – | 3.9 | 9.1 | – | 21.8 | 21.4 | |
| CENTRA/CEA[p 80] | 21–31 Mar 2022 | 3,600 | – | – | 14.1 | 35.1 | 2.3 | – | 7.3 | 3.8 | 3.5 | – | 3.1 | – | 27.9 | 2.8 | 21.0 |
| Social Data/Grupo Viva[p 146] | 14–18 Feb 2022 | 2,400 | – | – | 14.1 | 48.6 | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | 21.1 | 16.2 | 34.5 |
| CENTRA/CEA[p 88] | 24 Nov–13 Dec 2021 | 3,600 | – | – | 11.1 | 40.7 | 2.1 | – | 4.2 | 0.8 | 2.1 | – | 5.1 | – | 19.6 | 14.3 | 29.6 |
| SocioMétrica/El Español[p 147] | 3–6 Dec 2021 | 1,200 | – | – | 17.3 | 45.8 | 4.1 | – | 14.3 | – | 5.9 | – | 12.2 | – | 0.4 | – | 28.5 |
| CENTRA/CEA[p 94] | 18–30 Sep 2021 | 3,600 | – | – | 7.5 | 54.3 | 2.7 | – | – | 2.0 | 0.6 | – | 5.8 | – | 15.2 | 11.7 | 46.8 |
| CENTRA/CEA[p 97] | 15–24 Jun 2021 | 3,600 | 1.0 | – | 9.9 | 45.7 | 2.4 | – | – | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | 2.5 | – | 14.6 | 22.9 | 35.8 |
| Invest Group/CEA[p 105] | 18–25 Mar 2021 | 3,600 | 5.4 | 3.5 | 3.4 | 34.0 | 3.5 | 4.4 | 3.5 | – | 3.3 | – | 3.5 | – | 26.0 | 9.6 | 28.6 |
| Invest Group/CEA[p 114] | 23 Nov–3 Dec 2020 | 3,600 | 7.4 | – | – | 33.5 | 5.7 | 5.6 | – | – | 2.7 | – | 4.4 | – | 31.1 | 9.5 | 26.1 |
| GAD3/ABC[p 131] | 17–21 Feb 2020 | 802 | 15.6 | 4.3 | 2.6 | 30.5 | 5.8 | 4.2 | – | – | – | – | 10.7 | – | 20.7 | 5.6 | 14.9 |
Voter turnout
The table below shows registered voter turnout during the election. Figures for election day do not include non-resident citizens, while final figures do.
| Province | Time (Election day) | Final | |||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11:30 | 14:00 | 18:00 | 20:00 | ||||||||||
| 2022 | 2018 | 2022 | +/– | 2018 | 2022 | +/– | 2018 | 2022 | +/– | 2018 | 2022 | +/– | |
| Almería | 16.51% | 30.41% | 32.23% | +1.82 | 45.95% | 41.77% | −4.18 | 57.39% | 55.96% | −1.43 | 52.81% | 51.31% | −1.50 |
| Cádiz | 13.56% | 28.19% | 31.16% | +2.97 | 42.92% | 41.36% | −1.56 | 54.54% | 53.08% | −1.46 | 52.11% | 51.54% | −0.57 |
| Córdoba | 17.35% | 31.67% | 38.92% | +7.25 | 48.89% | 48.48% | −0.41 | 62.16% | 62.51% | +0.35 | 60.53% | 60.79% | +0.26 |
| Granada | 16.82% | 31.80% | 34.93% | +3.33 | 48.52% | 44.47% | −4.05 | 60.83% | 59.61% | −1.22 | 57.02% | 55.65% | −1.37 |
| Huelva | 12.22% | 26.89% | 29.80% | +2.91 | 42.62% | 39.89% | −2.73 | 55.54% | 54.93% | −0.61 | 54.58% | 53.86% | −0.72 |
| Jaén | 16.97% | 30.94% | 37.88% | +6.94 | 47.93% | 47.21% | −0.72 | 63.30% | 63.65% | +0.35 | 61.87% | 62.09% | +0.22 |
| Málaga | 15.62% | 29.84% | 32.98% | +3.14 | 45.64% | 43.59% | −2.05 | 56.63% | 56.21% | −0.42 | 54.22% | 53.68% | −0.54 |
| Seville | 15.08% | 29.88% | 35.51% | +5.63 | 48.05% | 46.78% | −1.27 | 60.59% | 60.98% | +0.39 | 59.24% | 59.52% | +0.28 |
| Total | 15.44% | 29.92% | 34.24% | +4.32 | 46.47% | 44.51% | −1.96 | 58.65% | 58.36% | −0.29 | 56.56% | 56.13% | −0.43 |
| Sources[81] | |||||||||||||
Results
Overall
| Parties and alliances | Popular vote | Seats | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Votes | % | ±pp | Total | +/− | ||
| People's Party (PP) | 1,589,272 | 43.11 | +22.36 | 58 | +32 | |
| Spanish Socialist Workers' Party of Andalusia (PSOE–A) | 888,325 | 24.10 | −3.84 | 30 | −3 | |
| Vox (Vox) | 496,618 | 13.47 | +2.51 | 14 | +2 | |
| United Left–More Country–Greens Equo–Initiative: For Andalusia (PorA)1 | 284,027 | 7.70 | n/a | 5 | ±0 | |
| Forward Andalusia–Andalusians (Adelante Andalucía–Andalucistas)1 | 168,960 | 4.58 | n/a | 2 | −10 | |
| Citizens–Party of the Citizenry (Cs) | 121,567 | 3.30 | −14.98 | 0 | −21 | |
| Animalist Party Against Mistreatment of Animals (PACMA) | 35,199 | 0.95 | −0.98 | 0 | ±0 | |
| Jaén Deserves More (JM+) | 18,873 | 0.51 | New | 0 | ±0 | |
| Arise, o Andalusians Coalition (AL)2 | 11,980 | 0.32 | −0.32 | 0 | ±0 | |
| Blank Seats (EB) | 4,407 | 0.12 | +0.04 | 0 | ±0 | |
| Communist Party of the Andalusian People (PCPA) | 4,358 | 0.12 | −0.06 | 0 | ±0 | |
| For a Fairer World (PUM+J) | 3,418 | 0.09 | New | 0 | ±0 | |
| For Huelva (XH) | 3,197 | 0.09 | New | 0 | ±0 | |
| Andalusian Nation (NA) | 2,839 | 0.08 | −0.06 | 0 | ±0 | |
| Communist Party of the Workers of Spain (PCTE) | 2,766 | 0.08 | New | 0 | ±0 | |
| Zero Cuts (Recortes Cero) | 2,766 | 0.08 | −0.12 | 0 | ±0 | |
| Socialist Republican Coalition for Andalusia (CRSxA)3 | 2,371 | 0.06 | +0.02 | 0 | ±0 | |
| Self-employed Party (Partido Autónomos) | 2,180 | 0.06 | New | 0 | ±0 | |
| The Greens (Los Verdes) | 1,457 | 0.04 | New | 0 | ±0 | |
| Spanish Phalanx of the CNSO (FE de las JONS) | 1,404 | 0.04 | −0.03 | 0 | ±0 | |
| Together for Granada–The Party of the Granadexit (JxG) | 1,308 | 0.04 | New | 0 | ±0 | |
| Volt Spain (Volt) | 923 | 0.03 | New | 0 | ±0 | |
| Retirees Party for the Future. Dignity and Democracy (JUFUDI) | 348 | 0.01 | New | 0 | ±0 | |
| We Are Future (Somos Futuro) | 266 | 0.01 | New | 0 | ±0 | |
| Wake Up–Constitutionalist Sociopolitical Party (Despierta) | 261 | 0.01 | New | 0 | ±0 | |
| Revolutionary Anticapitalist Left (IZAR) | 200 | 0.01 | −0.01 | 0 | ±0 | |
| Enough is Enough! (Federación Basta Ya!) | 163 | 0.00 | New | 0 | ±0 | |
| Blank ballots | 36,924 | 1.00 | −0.57 | |||
| Total | 3,686,377 | 109 | ±0 | |||
| Valid votes | 3,686,377 | 98.88 | +1.08 | |||
| Invalid votes | 41,778 | 1.12 | −1.08 | |||
| Votes cast / turnout | 3,728,155 | 56.13 | −0.43 | |||
| Abstentions | 2,913,748 | 43.87 | +0.43 | |||
| Registered voters | 6,641,903 | |||||
| Sources[32][82] | ||||||
Footnotes:
| ||||||
Distribution by constituency
| Constituency | PP | PSOE–A | Vox | PorA | AA | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| % | S | % | S | % | S | % | S | % | S | |
| Almería | 45.6 | 6 | 22.1 | 3 | 20.7 | 3 | 5.0 | − | 1.7 | − |
| Cádiz | 42.5 | 8 | 21.0 | 3 | 13.2 | 2 | 7.5 | 1 | 8.0 | 1 |
| Córdoba | 44.7 | 7 | 23.5 | 3 | 12.4 | 1 | 10.0 | 1 | 3.5 | − |
| Granada | 42.2 | 6 | 25.4 | 4 | 15.4 | 2 | 7.7 | 1 | 3.2 | − |
| Huelva | 42.7 | 6 | 27.4 | 4 | 12.8 | 1 | 6.5 | − | 3.9 | − |
| Jaén | 42.5 | 6 | 27.1 | 4 | 12.8 | 1 | 5.6 | − | 1.8 | − |
| Málaga | 47.0 | 10 | 20.7 | 4 | 13.5 | 2 | 8.1 | 1 | 3.8 | − |
| Seville | 40.1 | 9 | 26.6 | 5 | 11.4 | 2 | 8.4 | 1 | 6.3 | 1 |
| Total | 43.1 | 58 | 24.1 | 30 | 13.5 | 14 | 7.7 | 5 | 4.6 | 2 |
| Sources[32][82] | ||||||||||
Analysis
The election resulted in a landslide victory for the People's Party (PP), with incumbent president Juanma Moreno being re-elected. The PP won in all eight provinces in Andalusia, with the constituency of Seville flipping from the Spanish Socialist Workers' Party of Andalusia (PSOE–A) to the PP for the first time since the Spanish transition to democracy. In total, the PP took 58 of the 109 seats in parliament, an increase of 32 from their 2018 result and an absolute majority of seats that was the first in its history, while taking 43% of the vote, up 22 points from the last election. The PSOE—which, for the first time in history, was contesting a regional election in Andalusia from opposition—got its worst result ever in the autonomous community with 24.1% and 30 seats, being unable to recover from the 2018 shock which saw the party being expelled from the regional government of the community for the first time in 36 years.
The far-right Vox party failed to fulfil expectations and saw only modest gains, increasing its 2018 share by 2 points and gaining two additional seats, far short of the over 20 seats they had set themselves as a target. This was the first major electoral setback for the party since the 2019 general, regional, and local elections in Spain; in particular, the November 2019 general election had seen the party secure over 869,000 votes and 20.4% of the share, which was now reduced to 494,000 votes and 13.5%. Support for the liberal Citizens (Cs) collapsed as a result of vote transfers to the PP, whereas the left-wing vote of the 2018 Adelante Andalucía alliance divided between the United Left (IU) and Podemos-led For Andalusia coalition and the new Adelante Andalucía alliance of former Podemos regional leader Teresa Rodríguez.[83][84]
Aftermath
Notes
- Within the Adelante Andalucía alliance in the 2018 election.
- Amendments in 2018 granted the right to vote to those legally incapacitated.[25]
- Teresa Rodríguez, Ángela Aguilera, José Ignacio García, Luz Marina Dorado, María Vanessa García, María Gracia González, Ignacio Molina, Diego Crespo, Ana Villaverde, María Isabel Mora and María del Carmen García, former Podemos legislators.[34][35][36]
- Podemos and Green Alliance were a part of the alliance agreement, but failed to register before the 6 May deadline to be part of the joint electoral candidacy. As a result, while both parties remain politically a part of the alliance, they are unable to legally contest the election as parties within it.[45]
- Results for Adelante Andalucía (16.2%, 17 seats) and Equo–Iniciativa (0.4%, 0 seats) in the 2018 election.
- Denotes a main invitee attending the event.
- Denotes a main invitee not attending the event, sending a surrogate in their place.
- In Andalusia, the debate was broadcast on La 1 (414,000; 15.9%), Andalucía Televisión (84,000; 3.2%) and 24 Horas (43,000; 1.7%). Nationwide, the debate was broadcast on La 1 (1,035,000; 8.1%) and 24 Horas (144,000; 1.1%)
- Within Por Andalucía.
- Does not include non-resident citizens.
