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2022 United States House of Representatives election in Wyoming

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The 2022 United States House of Representatives election in Wyoming was held on November 8, 2022, to elect the U.S. representative for Wyoming's at-large congressional district. The election coincided with other elections to the House of Representatives, elections to the United States Senate, and various state and local elections.

Quick facts Turnout, Nominee ...
2022 United States House of Representatives election in Wyoming's at-large district
← 2020
November 8, 2022
2024 →
Turnout66.6% Decrease
 
Nominee Harriet Hageman Lynnette Grey Bull
Party Republican Democratic
Popular vote 132,206 47,250
Percentage 68.18% 24.37%
County results
Hageman:      60–70%      70–80%      80–90%
Grey Bull:      40–50%      60–70%
U.S. Representative before election

Liz Cheney
Republican

 Elected U.S. Representative

Harriet Hageman
Republican

Close

Although incumbent Republican Liz Cheney had been reelected with 68.6% of the vote in 2020,[1] she faced backlash from her party for her opposition to Donald Trump, vocal support of Trump's second impeachment, and vote in favor and service on the January 6th Committee. She was defeated by pro-Trump candidate Harriet Hageman in the Republican primary on August 16, 2022,[2] with a landslide 66.3% of the vote going to Hageman. Cheney's margin of defeat marked the second-worst for a House incumbent in the last 60 years, behind that of South Carolina Republican Bob Inglis in a 2010 primary runoff.[3] Democrats nominated nonprofit founder Lynnette Grey Bull, who was also their nominee in 2020.

As expected in the solidly Republican state of Wyoming, Hageman won in a landslide. However, Grey Bull did manage to flip Albany County, which she had lost in 2020.

Background

Further information: 2021 United States Electoral College vote count, Second impeachment of Donald Trump, and United States House Select Committee on the January 6 Attack

Incumbent Liz Cheney was strongly criticized by supporters of former president Donald Trump for her vote to impeach him, as well as refusing to object to the certification of the Electoral College results in the 2020 presidential election.[4] Following her impeachment vote, Florida Congressman Matt Gaetz appeared at a rally at the Wyoming State Capitol in support of ousting Cheney, with Donald Trump Jr. also supporting it by phone in January 2021.[5] For the same reason, the Wyoming Republican Party later voted to censure her and requested that she resign or be primaried in the next election. Later that year, it also voted 31–29 to no longer recognize Cheney as a member due to her actions to participate in the January 6 Select Committee shortly after being removed as Conference Chair.[6][7]

In February 2021, members of the Freedom Caucus attempted to have Cheney removed from her position as Chair of the House Republican Conference in response to her impeachment vote. In a secret ballot, 61 members of the conference voted to remove, while 145 voted not to remove. Cheney retained her position in large part because of the support by these Republicans, including House Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy and House Minority Whip Steve Scalise.[8][9] Eventually, however, Cheney's continued criticism of Trump lost her support by more Republicans, including McCarthy and Scalise, and McCarthy was caught on a hot mic saying "I've had it with her" in reference to Cheney. On May 12, 2021, Cheney was removed from her position as conference chair by a voice vote and replaced with Elise Stefanik.[9]

On May 21, 2021, challenger Anthony Bouchard admitted that as a teenager he fell in love with and started dating a 14-year-old girl who he subsequently impregnated and then married. Bouchard was 18 at the time. He claimed he went public with the story because he had learned that it was being investigated by others, though the Cheney campaign denied investigating it. He compared his relationship with the unnamed girl to "the Romeo and Juliet story." The two were married but divorced three years later, and she committed suicide at age 20. Bouchard continued to raise their son after her death, though he says the two are now estranged.[10][11]

Cheney and Adam Kinzinger were censured by the Republican National Committee at its meeting in Salt Lake City on February 4, 2022, due to "actions in their positions as members of the January 6th Select Committee not befitting Republican members of Congress". The Wyoming delegation to the committee also submitted a "Rule 11" letter formalizing support for challenger Harriet Hageman and allowing the RNC to spend money allocated for Wyoming's party branch on her behalf. At the same time, support of Hageman surged following the censure of Cheney.[12][13] Hageman has referred to Donald Trump as "racist and xenophobic" and also called him "the weakest candidate" during the 2016 presidential election; at the same time Hageman endorsed Cheney and called her a "proven, courageous, constitutional conservative."[14][15]

Following Cheney's defeat, she called Hageman to concede the race. However, Hageman alleged that Cheney only left two words: "Hi Harriet". This prompted Cheney to release the full audio recording of the call which showed that she did, in fact, concede the race. The Hageman camp asserted that a technical glitch was at fault.[16]

Republican primary

Candidates

Nominee

Eliminated in primary

Incumbent U.S. Representative Liz Cheney lost the primary.

Withdrawn

Declined

Endorsements

Map of endorsements by Republican members of the 117th United States Congress (by congressional district):
  Wyoming
  Cheney
(including Democratic representatives Dean Phillips, Speaker Nancy Pelosi, and Tom Malinowski)
  Hageman
Anthony Bouchard

Individuals

Liz Cheney

Executive branch officials

U.S. senators

U.S. representatives

Governors

Individuals

Organizations

Harriet Hageman

Executive branch officials

U.S. senators

U.S. representatives

State and local officials

Individuals

Organizations

Chuck Gray (withdrawn)

U.S. representatives

State officials

Individuals

Debates and forums

Wyoming PBS has had a tradition of hosting one debate for each for the Democratic and Republican primaries for all candidates on the ballot in their respective primaries, as well as one general election debate for all candidates on the ballot. All Republican candidates on the ballot who did not withdraw were included in the sole debate. This debate was not open to the public, but was open to media outlets.[71] Due to Liz Cheney's role as Vice Chair in the hearings for the United States House Select Committee on the January 6 Attack which were broadcast, different MSNBC hosts would later show debate clips of her defending her work in the committee.[72]

More information No., Date ...
2022 Wyoming Republican U.S. Representative primary debates
No. Date Host Moderator Link Participants
 P  Participant   A  Absent   N  Non-invitee   I  Invitee   W  Withdrawn
Liz Cheney Robyn Belinskey Anthony Bouchard Harriet Hageman Denton Knapp Chuck Gray Bryan Miller Darin Smith
1 June 30, 2022 Wyoming PBS Bob Beck
Steve Peck
Craig Blumenshine
Steven Dahl		 [73] P P P P P W W W
Close

Polling

Aggregate polls

More information Source of poll aggregation, Dates administered ...
Source of poll
aggregation		 Dates
administered		 Dates
updated		 Anthony
Bouchard		 Liz
Cheney		 Harriet
Hageman		 Undecided
[a]		 Margin
RealClearPolitics[74] July 7 – August 6, 2022 August 12, 2022 3.5% 29.0% 54.5% 13.0% Hageman +25.5
Close

Graphical summary

More information Poll source, Date(s) administered ...
Poll source Date(s)
administered		 Sample
size[b]		 Margin
of error		 Anthony
Bouchard		 Liz
Cheney		 Chuck
Gray		 Harriet
Hageman		 Darin
Smith		 Other Undecided
University of Wyoming[75] July 25 – August 6, 2022 562 (LV) ± 4.1% 2% 28% – 57% – 1%[c] 12%
WPA Intelligence (R)[76][A] July 12–14, 2022 400 (LV) ± 4.9% 5%[d] 31%[d] – 59%[d] – – 5%[d]
5%[e] 36%[e] – 54%[e] – – 5%[e]
5%[f] 39%[f] – 51%[f] – – 5%[f]
Mason-Dixon[77] July 7–11, 2022 1,100 (LV) ± 3.0% 5% 30% – 52% – 2%[g] 11%
Fabrizio Lee (R)[78][B] June 1–2, 2022 400 (LV) ± 4.9% 8% 28% – 56% – <1%[h] 7%
WPA Intelligence (R)[79][A] May 24–25, 2022 400 (LV) ± 4.9% 12% 26% – 56% – – 6%
Fabrizio Lee (R)[78][B] December 14–15, 2021 400 (LV) ± 4.9% 13% 26% – 34% – 2%[i] 26%
September 14, 2021 Gray suspends his campaign
September 9, 2021 Smith withdraws and endorses Hageman
McLaughlin & Associates (R)[80][C] July 26, 2021 300 (LV) ± 5.6% 17% 23% 18% – 7% 5%[j] 30%
– 23% 25% – 14% – 39%
– 24% 63% – – – 14%
Remington Research Group (R)[81][D] July 25–26, 2021 766 (LV) ± 3.3% 18% 19% 14% – 24% – 25%
– 20% – – 70% – 10%
McLaughlin & Associates (R)[82][E] January 25–26, 2021 – (LV)[k] – 28% 21% 17% – – – 34%
50% 23% – – – – 27%
– 23% 50% – – – 27%
Close

Results

Results by county:
  Hageman
  •   50–60%
  •   60–70%
  •   70–80%
  •   80–90%
  Cheney
  •   50–60%
  •   70–80%
More information Party, Candidate ...
Republican primary results August 16, 2022[83]
Party Candidate Votes %
Republican Harriet Hageman 113,079 66.3%
Republican Liz Cheney (incumbent) 49,339 28.9%
Republican Anthony Bouchard 4,508 2.6%
Republican Denton Knapp 2,258 1.3%
Republican Robyn Belinskey 1,306 0.8%
Total votes 170,490 100.0
Close

Democratic primary

Candidates

Nominee

Eliminated in primary

Debates and forums

More information No., Date ...
2022 Wyoming Democratic U.S. Representative primary debates
No. Date Host Moderators Link Participants
 P  Participant   A  Absent   N  Non-invitee   I  Invitee   W  Withdrawn
Lynnette Grey Bull Meghan Jensen Steve Helling
1 August 4, 2022 Wyoming PBS Bob Beck
Steve Peck
Craig Blumenshine		 [84] P P P
Close

Results

Results by county:
  Grey Bull
  •   40–50%
  •   50–60%
  •   60–70%
  •   70–80%
More information Party, Candidate ...
Democratic primary results August 16, 2022[83]
Party Candidate Votes %
Democratic Lynnette Grey Bull 4,507 62.3
Democratic Meghan Jensen 1,833 25.3
Democratic Steve Helling 897 12.4
Total votes 7,237 100.0
Close

Independent and third-party candidates

Constitution Party

Nominee

Eliminated at convention

Libertarian Party

Nominee

Independents

Failed to qualify for ballot

General election

In the general election, Hageman faced Democratic nominee and Native American activist Lynnette Grey Bull, who was Cheney's opponent in 2020. However, Hageman was overwhelmingly favored in November.[89] Republicans had a nearly 7-to-1 advantage in registration over Democrats,[90] and Trump carried the state in 2020 with almost 70 percent of the vote, his strongest state-level performance in the nation.

Hageman won the 2022 election. She is the fourth consecutive Republican woman to represent Wyoming in the House. Barbara Cubin won the seat in 1994, followed by Cynthia Lummis in 2008, followed by Cheney in 2016, and followed by Hageman.

Predictions

More information Source, Ranking ...
Source Ranking As of
The Cook Political Report[91] Solid R October 25, 2022
Inside Elections[92] Solid R October 11, 2021
Sabato's Crystal Ball[93] Safe R October 5, 2021
Politico[94] Solid R April 5, 2022
RCP[95] Safe R June 9, 2022
Fox News[96] Solid R July 11, 2022
DDHQ[97] Solid R July 20, 2022
538[98] Solid R June 30, 2022
Close

Debate

More information No., Date ...
2022 Wyoming U.S. House of Representatives debate
No. Date Host Moderator Link Republican Democratic Libertarian Constitution
Key:
 P  Participant   A  Absent   N  Not invited   I  Invited  W  Withdrawn
Harriet Hageman Lynette Grey Bull Richard Brubaker Marissa Selvig
1[99] Oct. 13, 2022 Central Wyoming College
Wyoming PBS
Wyoming Public Media		 Craig Blumenshine [100] A P P P
Close

Endorsements

Declined to endorse

Polling

More information Poll source, Date(s) administered ...
Poll source Date(s)
administered		 Sample
size[b]		 Margin
of error		 Harriet
Hageman (R)		 Lynnette
Grey Bull (D)		 Others Undecided
University of Wyoming[102] October 22 – November 3, 2022 436 (LV) – 62% 23% 4%[l] 11%
Close

Results

More information Party, Candidate ...
2022 Wyoming's at-large congressional district election[103]
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
Republican Harriet Hageman 132,206 68.18% −0.37
Democratic Lynnette Grey Bull 47,250 24.37% −0.22
Libertarian Richard Brubaker 5,420 2.80% −0.95
Write-in 4,521 2.33% +2.14
Constitution Marissa Selvig 4,505 2.32% −0.60
Total votes 193,902 100.00% N/A
Republican hold
Close
County Flips:
More information By county, County ...
Close

Notes

  1. [a]
    Calculated by taking the difference of 100% and all other candidates combined.
  2. [b]
    Key:
    A – all adults
    RV – registered voters
    LV – likely voters
    V – unclear
  3. [c]
    Knapp with 1%; Belinskey with 0%
  4. [d]
    Turnout scenario with registered Democrats as 13% of primary voters
  5. [e]
    Turnout scenario with registered Democrats as 20% of primary voters
  6. [f]
    Turnout scenario with registered Democrats as 25% of primary voters
  7. [g]
    Belinskey and Knapp with 1%
  8. [h]
    Belinskey and Knapp with <1%
  9. [i]
    Belinskey and Knapp with 1%
  10. [j]
    Buchanan with 3%, Biteman with 2%
  11. [k]
    Republican primary subsample of a poll of 500 likely general election voters (margin of error ± 4.4%)
  12. [l]
    Richard Brubaker (L) with 3%; Marissa Selvig (C) with 1%

Partisan clients

  1. [A]
    This poll was sponsored by Club for Growth Action, which opposes Cheney
  2. [B]
    This poll was sponsored by Wyoming Values PAC, which supports Hageman
  3. [C]
    This poll was sponsored by Gray's campaign
  4. [D]
    This poll was sponsored by Smith's campaign
  5. [E]
    This poll was sponsored by Save America PAC

References

External links

Related Articles

Timelines

Top Qs

Fact Checks