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2022 United States Senate election in Utah

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The 2022 United States Senate election in Utah was held on November 8, 2022, to elect a member of the United States Senate to represent the State of Utah. Incumbent senator Mike Lee, who was first elected in 2010, won re-election to a third term, defeating Evan McMullin, an independent candidate who was endorsed by the Utah Democratic Party.

Quick facts Nominee, Party ...
2022 United States Senate election in Utah

← 2016
November 8, 2022
2028 →
 
Nominee Mike Lee Evan McMullin
Party Republican Independent
Alliance Democratic
Popular vote 571,974 459,958
Percentage 53.15% 42.74%

Lee:      40–50%      50–60%      60–70%      70–80%      80–90%      >90%
McMullin:      40–50%      50–60%      60–70%      70–80%      >80%
Hansen:      >90%
Williams:      >90%
Tie:      30–40%      40–50%      50%      No votes

U.S. senator before election

Mike Lee
Republican

Elected U.S. senator

Mike Lee
Republican

Close

This was the first Senate election in Utah's history in which there was no Democratic nominee. Lee's performance was the worst for a Republican in a Utah U.S. Senate election since 1974, while McMullin's was the best ever for an independent in a Utah U.S. Senate race and the best for a non-Republican since 1976. This was the first Senate election since 1974 that Salt Lake County did not vote Republican.

Republican primary

Incumbent U.S. Senator Mike Lee won over 70% of the vote at the Utah Republican Party state convention on April 23, 2022. Though considered by the party to be its nominee, a primary was still held on June 28, 2022, after two other candidates garnered enough signatures to qualify.[1]

Candidates

Nominee

Former state representative Becky Edwards finished second in the primary.
Businesswoman Ally Isom finished third in the primary.

Eliminated in primary

Eliminated at convention

Did not file

Withdrawn

Declined

Endorsements

Polling

Graphical summary

More information Poll source, Date(s) administered ...
Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size[a]
Margin
of error
Evan
Barlow
Loy
Brunson
Becky
Edwards
Jeremy
Friedbaum
Laird
Hamblin
Ally
Isom
Tyrone
Jensen
Mike
Lee
Brendan
Wright
Other Undecided
Dan Jones & Associates[24] May 7–13, 2022 503 (LV) ± 4.3% – – 19% – – 6% – 49% – – 26%
Dan Jones & Associates[25] March 9–21, 2022 484 (LV) ± 4.5% 6% 1% 19% 2% 1% 4% – 67% – – –
OH Predictive Insights[26] February 7–14, 2022 366 (RV) ± 5.1% – – 5% – – 2% 2% 51% 2% – 37%
Dan Jones & Associates[27] October 14–21, 2021 469 (LV) ± 4.5% – – 7% – – 2% – 53% – 6% 32%
OH Predictive Insights[28] August 2–8, 2021 337 (RV) ± 5.3% – – 3% – – 2% – 45% 3% – 48%
RMG Research[29] June 24–25, 2021 587 (LV) ± 4.0% – – 11% – – – – 47% – 8% 33%
Close

Results

Convention

More information State Republican Convention results, 2022, Candidate ...
State Republican Convention results, 2022
Candidate First ballot Pct.
Mike Lee 2,621 70.74%
Becky Edwards 436 11.77%
Ally Isom 358 9.66%
Jeremy Friedbaum 132 3.56%
Evan Barlow 75 2.02%
Loy Brunson 71 1.92%
Laird Hamblin 12 0.32%
Total 3,705 100.00%
Close

Primary

Results by county:
  Lee
  •   50–60%
  •   60–70%
  •   70–80%
  •   80–90%
More information Party, Candidate ...
Republican primary results[30][31]
Party Candidate Votes %
Republican Mike Lee (incumbent) 258,089 61.94%
Republican Becky Edwards 123,617 29.67%
Republican Ally Isom 34,997 8.40%
Total votes 416,703 100.0%
Close

Democratic convention

The Utah Democratic Party state convention took place on April 23, 2022.[32] Kael Weston was the only Democrat still running; however, the party endorsed Evan McMullin's independent bid in lieu of nominating a candidate,[33] following encouragement from many prominent Democrats in the state, including former Rep. Ben McAdams and Salt Lake County Mayor Jenny Wilson, to back McMullin's campaign.

Candidates

Eliminated at convention

Former U.S. State Department official Kael Weston

Did not file

  • Austin Searle, musician[35]

Withdrew

Declined

Endorsements

Kael Weston

Statewide official

Polling

Hypothetical polling
More information Poll source, Date(s) administered ...
Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size[a]
Margin
of error
Allen
Glines
Nicholas
Mitchell
Steve
Schmidt
Austin
Searle
Kael
Weston
Undecided
OH Predictive Insights[26] February 7–14, 2022 110 (RV) ± 9.3% 2% 5% 16% 2% 14% 60%
Close

Convention vote

The Utah Democratic Party held a state convention on April 23, 2022, to endorse candidates for state offices.[42][43][44] Supporters of independent candidate Evan McMullin, led by Salt Lake County mayor Jenny Wilson, introduced a motion for the state party to forgo nominating a Democratic candidate for the U.S. Senate and to instead "join Evan McMullin's independent coalition to beat Mike Lee",[43] contending that not doing so would split the anti-Lee vote in the general election.[43][44] The motion was opposed by supporters of Kael Weston, the lone Democratic candidate for the seat who thus would have received the nomination had the motion failed.[44] The delegates passed the motion by a 57–43% margin.[43][44]

More information Choice, Votes ...
Democratic convention results[44]
ChoiceVotes%
Endorse Evan McMullin78256.83
Nominate Kael Weston59443.17
Total1,376100.00
Close

Libertarian convention

Candidates

Nominee

Eliminated at convention

Independent American convention

Candidates

Declared

  • Tommy Williams, perennial candidate[47]

Independents

Candidates

Declared

Withdrawn

General election

Predictions

More information Source, Ranking ...
Source Ranking As of
The Cook Political Report[50] Likely R August 18, 2022
Inside Elections[51] Likely R September 9, 2022
Sabato's Crystal Ball[52] Likely R June 15, 2022
Politico[53] Likely R April 1, 2022
RCP[54] Likely R November 5, 2022
Fox News[55] Likely R September 20, 2022
DDHQ[56] Solid R July 20, 2022
538[57] Solid R September 22, 2022
The Economist[58] Safe R September 7, 2022
Close

Endorsements

Mike Lee (R)

U.S. Presidents

Executive Branch officials

U.S. Senators

U.S. Representatives

State officials

Organizations

Evan McMullin (I)

Executive Branch officials

U.S. Representatives

State officials

Local officials

Individuals

Labor unions

Organizations

Political parties

Declined to endorse

U.S. Senators

Polling

Aggregate polls

More information Source of poll aggregation, Dates administered ...
Source of poll
aggregation
Dates
administered
Dates
updated
Mike
Lee (R)
Evan
McMullin (I)
Undecided
[b]
Margin
FiveThirtyEight[95] June 15 – November 8, 2022 November 8, 2022 48.5% 38.7% 12.8% Lee +9.8
270towin[96] October 31 – November 1, 2022 November 8, 2022 48.0% 36.7% 15.3% Lee +11.3
Average 48.2% 37.7% 14.1% Lee +10.5
Close

Graphical summary

%support01020304050602022/03/052022/09/082022/10/30LeeMcMullinUndecided/OtherOpinion polling for the 2022 United States S...
More information Poll source, Date(s) administered ...
Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size[a]
Margin
of error
Mike
Lee (R)
Evan
McMullin (I)
Other Undecided
Hill Research Consultants (I)[97][A] October 29–30, 2022 500 (LV) – 47% 46% – –
Emerson College[98] October 25–28, 2022 825 (LV) ± 3.3% 49% 39% 9%[c] 4%
50% 40% 11%[d] –
OH Predictive Insights[99] October 25–27, 2022 600 (LV) ± 4.0% 53% 34% 4%[e] 9%
Hill Research Consultants (I)[100][A] October 8–11, 2022 500 (LV) – 43%[f] 49% 4%[g] 4%
42% 46% 4%[h] 8%
Kurt Jetta (I)[101][B] October 4–11, 2022 406 (RV) ± 3.5% 38% 37% – 26%
239 (LV) 50% 38% – 12%
OH Predictive Insights[102] October 5–6, 2022 483 (LV) ± 4.5% 47% 32% 5%[i] 16%
Dan Jones & Associates[103] October 3–6, 2022 801 (RV) ± 3.5% 41% 37% 8%[j] 12%
773 (LV) 42% 37% 8%[j] 12%
Dan Jones & Associates[104] September 3–21, 2022 815 (RV) ± 3.4% 36% 34% 13%[k] 16%
786 (LV) 37% 34% 13%[k] 16%
Lighthouse Research[105] August 30 – September 13, 2022 509 (LV) ± 4.4% 48% 37% 10%[l] 5%
Kurt Jetta (I)[106][B] September 1–8, 2022 474 (RV) ± 3.5% 40% 37% – 23%
239 (LV) 43% 39% – 18%
Impact Research (I)[107][C] August 29 – September 1, 2022 800 (LV) ± 3.5% 46% 47% – 7%
WPA Intelligence (R)[108][D] August 4–5, 2022 500 (LV) – 50% 32% 6% 12%
Dan Jones & Associates[109] July 13–18, 2022 801 (RV) ± 3.5% 41% 36% 14% 8%
WPA Intelligence (R)[110][D] July 12–14, 2022 529 (LV) ± 4.3% 49% 35% 10% 5%
Kurt Jetta (I)[106][B] July 12, 2022 561 (A) ± 4.1% 43% 32% – 26%
434 (RV) ± 4.7% 44% 34% – 22%
213 (LV) ± 6.7% 50% 36% – 15%
WPA Intelligence (R)[111][D] June 14–16, 2022 300 (LV) ± 5.7% 52% 33% – 15%
Dan Jones & Associates[112] May 24 – June 15, 2022 803 (RV) ± 3.5% 41% 35% 4% 20%
Dan Jones & Associates[113] May 24 – June 4, 2022 810 (RV) ± 3.5% 41% 37% 4% 19%
Kurt Jetta (I)[106][B] March 5, 2022 683 (A) ± 3.7% 31% 26% – 44%
– (RV) – 33% 27% – 40%
– (LV) – 38% 30% – 32%
Close
Hypothetical polling

Becky Edwards vs. Evan McMullin

More information Poll source, Date(s) administered ...
Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size[a]
Margin
of error
Becky
Edwards (R)
Evan
McMullin (I)
Other Undecided
Dan Jones & Associates[112] May 24 – June 15, 2022 803 (RV) ± 3.5% 31% 29% 7% 34%
Dan Jones & Associates[113] May 24 – June 4, 2022 810 (RV) ± 3.5% 29% 28% 6% 37%
Close

Ally Isom vs. Evan McMullin

More information Poll source, Date(s) administered ...
Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size[a]
Margin
of error
Ally
Isom (R)
Evan
McMullin (I)
Other Undecided
Dan Jones & Associates[112] May 24 – June 15, 2022 803 (RV) ± 3.5% 24% 34% 7% 36%
Dan Jones & Associates[113] May 24 – June 4, 2022 810 (RV) ± 3.5% 23% 34% 7% 36%
Close

Mike Lee vs. Kael Weston vs. Evan McMullin

More information Poll source, Date(s) administered ...
Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size[a]
Margin
of error
Mike
Lee (R)
Kael
Weston (D)
Evan
McMullin (I)
Other Undecided
Moore Information Group (R)[114] March 20–24, 2022 400 (LV) ± 5.0% 49% 13% 25% 1% 12%
Dan Jones & Associates[115] March 9–21, 2022 804 (RV) ± 3.5% 43% 11% 19% 3% 24%
OH Predictive Insights[26] February 7–14, 2022 739 (RV) ± 3.6% 34% 12% 24% – 30%
Close

Mike Lee vs. Steve Schmidt vs. Evan McMullin

More information Poll source, Date(s) administered ...
Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size[a]
Margin
of error
Mike
Lee (R)
Steve
Schmidt (D)
Evan
McMullin (I)
Undecided
OH Predictive Insights[26] February 7–14, 2022 739 (RV) ± 3.6% 36% 11% 23% 30%
Close

Mike Lee vs. Steve Schmidt

More information Poll source, Date(s) administered ...
Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size[a]
Margin
of error
Mike
Lee (R)
Steve
Schmidt (D)
Undecided
OH Predictive Insights[26] February 7–14, 2022 739 (RV) ± 3.6% 45% 25% 30%
Close

Mike Lee vs. Kael Weston

More information Poll source, Date(s) administered ...
Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size[a]
Margin
of error
Mike
Lee (R)
Kael
Weston (D)
Undecided
OH Predictive Insights[26] February 7–14, 2022 739 (RV) ± 3.6% 45% 25% 30%
Close

Debates

More information No., Date ...
2022 United States Senate general election in Utah debates
No. Date Host Moderator Link Republican Independent
Key:
 P  Participant   A  Absent   N  Non-invitee   I  Invitee  W  Withdrawn
Mike Lee Evan McMullin
1 Oct. 18, 2022 Utah Debate Commission Doug Wright [116] P P
Close

Results

More information Party, Candidate ...
2022 United States Senate election in Utah[117]
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
Republican Mike Lee (incumbent) 571,974 53.15% –15.00
Independent Evan McMullin 459,958 42.74% N/A
Libertarian James Hansen 31,784 2.95% N/A
Independent American Tommy Williams 12,103 1.12% –1.33
Write-in 242 0.02% N/A
Total votes 1,076,061 100.0%
Republican hold
Close
County Flips:

By county

More information By county, County ...
Close

By congressional district

Lee won all four congressional districts.[118]

More information District, Lee ...
District Lee McMullin Representative
1st 51% 44% Blake Moore
2nd 53% 42% Chris Stewart
3rd 52% 44% John Curtis
4th 56% 40% Burgess Owens
Close

See also

Notes

  1. Key:
    A – all adults
    RV – registered voters
    LV – likely voters
    V – unclear
  2. Calculated by taking the difference of 100% and all other candidates combined.
  3. Hansen (L) with 4%; Williams (IA) with 3%; "Someone else" with 2%
  4. Hansen (L) with 5%; Williams (IA) with 3%; "Someone else" with 3%
  5. Hansen (L) with 3%; Williams (IA) with 1%
  6. With voters who lean towards a given candidate
  7. Hansen (L) with 4%
  8. Hansen (L) with 4%
  9. Hansen (L) with 3%; Williams (IA) with 2%
  10. Williams (IA) with 2%; Hansen (L) with 1%; "Other" with 5%
  11. Williams (IA) with 3%; Hansen (L) with 2%; "Other" with 8%
  12. Hansen (L) and Williams (IA) with 5%

Partisan clients

  1. This poll was sponsored by Put Utah First PAC, which supports McMullin
  2. This poll was sponsored by Center Street PAC, which supports McMullin
  3. This poll was sponsored by McMullin's campaign
  4. This poll was sponsored by Lee's campaign

References

Related Articles

Timelines

Top Qs

Fact Checks