2022 United States Senate special election in Oklahoma
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The 2022 United States Senate special election in Oklahoma was held on November 8, 2022, to elect a member of the United States Senate for Oklahoma. The election took place concurrently with the regularly scheduled election for Oklahoma's other Senate seat.[1] The candidate filing deadline was between April 13 and 15, 2022.[2]
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November 8, 2022
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   Mullin: 40–50% 50–60% 60–70% 70–80% 80–90% >90% Horn: 40–50% 50–60% 60–70% 70–80% 80–90% >90% Tie: 40–50% 50% No votes | |||||||||||||||||
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This special election was held to fill the remaining four years of incumbent Republican Senator Jim Inhofe's term. In February 2022, Inhofe announced that he would resign early at the end of the 117th United States Congress on January 3, 2023,[3] reportedly due to long COVID.[4] He was first elected in a 1994 special election with 55% of the vote, succeeding Democratic senator David Boren in the wake of his impending resignation to become president of the University of Oklahoma.[5] Most recently, Inhofe was re-elected to a fifth full term in 2020 with 62.9% of the vote.[6]
Former U.S. Representative Kendra Horn secured the Democratic nomination by default, while the primary election for the Republican nomination took place on June 28, 2022. U.S. Representative Markwayne Mullin won the Republican primary runoff on August 23, defeating former State House Speaker T. W. Shannon.[2] Mullin ultimately won the election.[7]
Mullin, a member of the Cherokee Nation, became the first Native American to serve in the U.S. Senate since fellow Republican Ben Nighthorse Campbell retired from Congress in 2005, and the first Native American representing this state since Robert Owen in 1925.[8] Conversely, Horn won Oklahoma County, making her the first Democrat since 2008 to carry any Oklahoma county in a Senate election.
Republican primary
On February 25, 2022, Jim Inhofe, the state's longest-serving U.S. Senator, announced he would leave office at the end of the 117th Congress, triggering a special election for his U.S. Senate seat in Oklahoma.[9] A crowded field of candidates was expected in the Republican primary following the announcement of Inhofe's retirement.[10]
Luke Holland, Inhofe's former chief of staff, launched his campaign for Inhofe's seat on the same day with Inhofe's endorsement.[9] The next day, Markwayne Mullin, a U.S. Representative for Oklahoma's 2nd congressional district, announced his campaign.[11] By February 28, Oklahoma State Senator Nathan Dahm had announced he was switching his campaign from running for Oklahoma's Class III seat to running for the special election seat.[12] On March 8, former United States National Security Council chief of staff Alex Gray announced his campaign.[13] T. W. Shannon, a former Speaker of the Oklahoma House of Representatives, officially announced his campaign on March 11.[14] Scott Pruitt, former Administrator of the Environmental Protection Agency, filed to run on April 15.[15]
Candidates
Nominee
- Markwayne Mullin, U.S. representative for Oklahoma's 2nd congressional district[11]
Eliminated in runoff
- T. W. Shannon, former speaker of the Oklahoma House of Representatives (2013–2014) for the 62nd district (2007–2015) and candidate for U.S. Senate in 2014[16]
Eliminated in initial primary
- Michael Coibion[17]
- Nathan Dahm, state senator for the 33rd district (2012–2024) and candidate for Oklahoma's 1st congressional district in 2010 and 2018[12]
- Jessica Jean Garrison, author, dietician and daughter of former state senator Earl Garrison[18][17]
- Randy Grellner, physician[19]
- Luke Holland, former chief of staff for U.S. Senator Jim Inhofe[20]
- Adam Holley, office manager[17]
- Laura Moreno[17]
- Scott Pruitt, former Administrator of the Environmental Protection Agency (2017–2018) and former attorney general of Oklahoma (2011–2017)[15]
- Paul Royse[17]
- John Tompkins, orthopedic surgeon and candidate for U.S. Senate in 2020[19]
Withdrew before primary
- Alex Gray, former United States National Security Council chief of staff (Endorsed Luke Holland in primary and Markwayne Mullin in runoff)[21]
Declined
- Stephanie Bice, U.S. representative for Oklahoma's 5th congressional district (running for re-election)[3]
- Jim Bridenstine, former administrator of the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (2018–2021) and former U.S. representative for Oklahoma's 1st congressional district (2013–2018)[22]
- G. T. Bynum, mayor of Tulsa[12]
- Gentner Drummond, attorney (running for attorney general)[23]
- Kevin Hern, U.S. representative for Oklahoma's 1st congressional district (running for re-election)[24]
- Jackson Lahmeyer, pastor (ran for the Class 3 U.S. Senate seat)[25]
- Frank Lucas, U.S. representative for Oklahoma's 3rd congressional district (running for re-election)[9]
- Charles McCall, Speaker of the Oklahoma House of Representatives[26]
- Kyle McCarter, former U.S. Ambassador to Kenya[27]
- John M. O'Connor, attorney general of Oklahoma (running for attorney general)[22]
- Matt Pinnell, lieutenant governor of Oklahoma (running for re-election)[28]
- R. Trent Shores, former U.S. attorney for the Northern District of Oklahoma (2017–2021)[23]
- Kevin Stitt, governor of Oklahoma (running for re-election)[29]
- Greg Treat, president pro tempore of the Oklahoma Senate[30]
- J. C. Watts, former U.S. representative for Oklahoma's 4th congressional district (1995–2003)[16]
- Paul Wesselhoft, legislator for the 9th district of the Citizen Potawatomi Nation (2007–present) and former state representative for the 54th district (2004–2016)[31]
First round
Endorsements
U.S. Senators
- Rand Paul, U.S. Senator from Kentucky (2011–present)[32]
Newspapers
Organizations
- Eagle Forum PAC[34]
- National Association for Gun Rights[35]
- Oklahoma Second Amendment Association[36]
- Oklahomans for Health and Parental Rights[37]
Federal executive officials
- Adam Boehler, 1st CEO of the U.S. International Development Finance Corporation (2019–2021)[38]
- David M. Friedman, former United States Ambassador to Israel (2017–2021)[38]
- Richard Grenell, former acting Director of National Intelligence (2020), former United States Ambassador to Germany (2018–2020), and Special Presidential Envoy for Serbia and Kosovo Peace Negotiations (2019–2021)[13]
- Keith Kellogg, retired United States Army lieutenant general, former Executive Secretary and Chief of Staff of the U.S. National Security Council (2017–2018), and National Security Advisor to the Vice President of the United States (2018–2021)[39]
- Chris Miller, former acting United States Secretary of Defense (2020–2021)[39]
- Robert O'Brien, 28th United States National Security Advisor (2019–2021)[40]
- Kash Patel, former chief of staff to the acting United States Secretary of Defense[41]
- Matthew Whitaker, former acting United States Attorney General (2018–2019), former Chief of Staff to the United States Attorney General (2017–2018), and former United States Attorney for the Southern District of Iowa (2004–2009)[38]
U.S. Senators
- Mike Lee, U.S. Senator from Utah (2011–present)[40]
- Pete Wilson, 36th governor of California (1991–1999) and former U.S. Senator from California (1983–1991)[38]
U.S. representative
- Paul Gosar, U.S. Representative for Arizona's 4th congressional district (2013–present)[38]
County officials
- Joe Arpaio, 36th Sheriff of Maricopa County, Arizona (1993–2017)[38]
Federal Executive officials
- Michael Flynn, 25th United States National Security Advisor (2017) (Democrat)[42]
Individuals
- Jackson Lahmeyer, candidate for Republican nomination in 2022 United States Senate election in Oklahoma[43]
- Ed Martin, President of Phyllis Schlafly Eagles and former Chair of the Missouri Republican Party (2013–2015)[44]
Organizations
- Phyllis Schlafly Eagles[43]
U.S. Senators
- Jim Inhofe, U.S. Senator from Oklahoma (1994–2023), former U.S. Representative for Oklahoma's 1st congressional district (1987–1994) and former mayor of Tulsa (1978–1984)[29]
Individuals
- Alex Gray, former United States National Security Council chief of staff and candidate in the Republican primary for the 2022 U.S. senate special election in Oklahoma[21]
Political action committees
- Okieway[45]
Federal executive officials
- Neal McCaleb, 8th Assistant Secretary of the Interior for Indian Affairs (2001–2003), 1st and 3rd Oklahoma Secretary of Transportation (1987–1991) (1995–2001), and former Oklahoma State representative (1975–1983)[49]
State executive officials
- Rita Aragon, 4th Oklahoma Secretary of Veterans Affairs (2011–2019) and retired United States Air National Guard major general[50]
- Gary Ridley, 6th Oklahoma Secretary of Transportation (2009–2017)[49]
State representatives
- Hopper Smith, United States National Guard brigadier general and former Oklahoma State representative for the 67th district[50]
Tribal officials
- Bill Anoatubby, Governor of the Chickasaw Nation (1987–present) (Democrat)[14]
U.S. military generals
- Lee Baxter, retired United States Army Major General[50]
- Jesse Cross, 50th Quartermaster General of the United States Army (2007–2010) and retired United States Army brigadier general[50]
- Toney Stricklin, retired United States Army major general[50]
Individuals
- Mark Levin, lawyer, author, and radio personality; host of The Mark Levin Show[51]
Organizations
- Association of Oklahoma General Contractors[52]
Federal executive officials
- Rick Perry, former Secretary of Energy, former governor of Texas[53]
Debates
| No. | Date | Host | Moderator | Link | Participants | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Key: P Participant A Absent N Non-invitee I Invitee W Withdrawn | |||||||||
| Nathan Dahm |
Luke Holland |
Markwayne Mullin |
Scott Pruitt |
T.W. Shannon | |||||
| 1 | June 9, 2022 | News on 6 | Amanda Taylor | Link | P | P | A | P | P |
| 2 | June 22, 2022 | News on 6 | Alex Cameron | Link | P | P | A | P | P |
Polling
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[a] |
Margin of error |
Nathan Dahm |
Jessica Garrison |
Alex Gray |
Randy Grellner |
Luke Holland |
Adam Holley |
Markwayne Mullin |
Scott Pruitt |
T.W. Shannon |
Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SoonerPoll[54] | June 13–21, 2022 | 350 (LV) | ± 5.2% | 8% | – | 2% | 1% | 5% | – | 39% | 2% | 13% | – | 30% |
| Amber Integrated (R)[55] | June 6–9, 2022 | 400 (LV) | ± 4.9% | 5% | 3% | 0% | 1% | 4% | 0% | 38% | 6% | 19% | 0%[b] | 22% |
| SoonerPoll[56] | April 25 – May 11, 2022 | 306 (LV) | ± 5.6% | 6% | 0% | 0% | 1% | 3% | 1% | 38% | 3% | 16% | 0%[b] | 31% |
| Amber Integrated (R)[57] | March 24–27, 2022 | 455 (LV) | ± 4.6% | 6% | – | 1% | – | 2% | – | 39% | – | 14% | – | 38% |
Results
- 40–50%
- 50–60%
- 60–70%
- 70–80%
- 30–40%
- 20–30%
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Republican | Markwayne Mullin | 156,087 | 43.62% | |
| Republican | T. W. Shannon | 62,746 | 17.53% | |
| Republican | Nathan Dahm | 42,673 | 11.92% | |
| Republican | Luke Holland | 40,353 | 11.28% | |
| Republican | Scott Pruitt | 18,052 | 5.04% | |
| Republican | Randy Grellner | 15,794 | 4.41% | |
| Republican | Laura Moreno | 6,597 | 1.84% | |
| Republican | Jessica Jean Garrison | 6,114 | 1.71% | |
| Republican | Alex Gray (withdrew) | 3,063 | 0.86% | |
| Republican | John F. Tompkins | 2,332 | 0.65% | |
| Republican | Adam Holley | 1,873 | 0.52% | |
| Republican | Michael Coibion | 1,261 | 0.35% | |
| Republican | Paul Royse | 900 | 0.25% | |
| Total votes | 357,845 | 100.0% | ||
Runoff
Endorsements during runoff
Executive branch officials
- Donald Trump, 45th president of the United States (2017–2021)[60]
Statewide elected officials
- Kevin Stitt, Governor of Oklahoma (2019–present)[61]
Debates
| No. | Date | Host | Moderator | Link | Participants | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Key: P Participant A Absent N Non-invitee I Invitee W Withdrawn | |||||||||
| Markwayne Mullin |
T.W. Shannon | ||||||||
| 1 | August 2, 2022 | News on 6 | Link | P | P | ||||
Polling
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[a] |
Margin of error |
Markwayne Mullin |
T.W. Shannon |
Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SoonerPoll[62] | August 11–17, 2022 | 322 (LV) | ± 5.4% | 53% | 47% | 0% |
| Amber Integrated (R)[63] | August 11–15, 2022 | 684 (LV) | ± 3.8% | 49% | 31% | 20% |
| Battleground Connect (R)[64] | July 31 – August 1, 2022 | 800 (LV) | ± 3.7% | 46% | 38% | 16% |
| SoonerPoll[65] | July 25 – August 1, 2022 | 383 (LV) | ± 5.0% | 63% | 35% | 1% |
Results
- 50–60%
- 60–70%
- 70–80%
- 80–90%
- 50–60%
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Republican | Markwayne Mullin | 183,118 | 65.08% | |
| Republican | T. W. Shannon | 98,246 | 34.92% | |
| Total votes | 281,364 | 100.0% | ||
Democratic nomination
Former U.S. Representative Kendra Horn was the only Democrat to file to run and was automatically awarded the Democratic nomination.[67]
General election
Candidates
- Kendra Horn (Democratic), former U.S. Representative for Oklahoma's 5th congressional district[17]
- Markwayne Mullin (Republican), U.S. Representative for Oklahoma's 2nd congressional district[68]
- Robert Murphy (Libertarian), retired University of Oklahoma data technician, U.S. Marine Corps veteran, and carpenter[69]
- Ray Woods (independent), candidate for U.S. Senate in 2014[19]
Predictions
| Source | Ranking | As of |
|---|---|---|
| The Cook Political Report[70] | Solid R | February 24, 2022 |
| Inside Elections[71] | Solid R | February 24, 2022 |
| Sabato's Crystal Ball[72] | Safe R | March 1, 2022 |
| Politico[73] | Solid R | April 1, 2022 |
| RCP[74] | Safe R | February 24, 2022 |
| Fox News[75] | Solid R | May 12, 2022 |
| DDHQ[76] | Solid R | July 20, 2022 |
| 538[77] | Solid R | June 30, 2022 |
| The Economist[78] | Safe R | September 7, 2022 |
Post-primary endorsements
U.S. Representatives
- Tulsi Gabbard, former U.S. Representative for Hawaii's 2nd congressional district (2013–2021) (Independent)[79]
Organizations
- Associated General Contractors of America[80]
- Campaign for Working Families[81]
- Citizens Against Government Waste[82]
- National Rifle Association of America[81]
- National Right to Life[83]
- Oklahoma Farm Bureau[84]
- Oklahoma Fraternal Order of Police[85]
- Tea Party Express[86]
State legislators
- Kris Steele, Speaker of the Oklahoma House of Representatives, Speaker pro tempore of the Oklahoma House of Representatives and state representative for the 26th district (2001–2013) (Republican)[87]
Organizations
- Brady Campaign[88]
- Edmond Democratic Women[89]
- League of Conservation Voters Action Fund[90]
- National Education Association[91]
- Sally's List[92]
Newspapers
Individuals
- Seth MacFarlane, actor, singer, and writer[94]
- Mark Ruffalo, actor[94]
Polling
Aggregate polls
Graphical summary
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[a] |
Margin of error |
Markwayne Mullin (R) |
Kendra Horn (D) |
Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ascend Action (R)[96] | November 5–6, 2022 | 682 (LV) | ± 3.8% | 53% | 41% | 3%[d] | 4% |
| Amber Integrated (R)[97] | October 26–28, 2022 | 501 (LV) | ± 4.4% | 52% | 41% | 4%[e] | 2% |
| Emerson College[98] | October 25–28, 2022 | 1,000 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 56% | 35% | 4%[f] | 5% |
| 59% | 36% | 5%[g] | – | ||||
| Ascend Action (R)[99] | October 24–28, 2022 | 749 (LV) | ± 3.6% | 47% | 41% | 4%[h] | 8% |
| Amber Integrated (R)[100] | October 13–15, 2022 | 500 (LV) | ± 4.4% | 52% | 39% | 5%[i] | 3% |
| Ascend Action (R)[101] | October 10–12, 2022 | 638 (LV) | ± 3.9% | 50% | 39% | 1%[j] | 10% |
| SoonerPoll[102] | October 3–6, 2022 | 301 (LV) | – | 51% | 42% | 3%[k] | 4% |
| Amber Integrated (R)[103] | September 19–21, 2022 | 500 (LV) | ± 4.4% | 50% | 39% | – | 11% |
| –(L)[A] | September 15–18, 2022 | 2,989 (LV) | ± 3.2% | 49% | 37% | 5%[l] | 9% |
| SoonerPoll[104] | September 2–7, 2022 | 402 (LV) | ± 4.9% | 52% | 40% | 4%[m] | 4% |
| Echelon Insights[105] | August 31 – September 7, 2022 | 522 (RV) | ± 6.3% | 58% | 28% | – | 13% |
Results
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | ±% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Republican | Markwayne Mullin | 710,643 | 61.77% | −1.14% | |
| Democratic | Kendra Horn | 405,389 | 35.24% | +2.49% | |
| Libertarian | Robert Murphy | 17,386 | 1.51% | −0.70% | |
| Independent | Ray Woods | 17,063 | 1.48% | N/A | |
| Total votes | 1,150,481 | 100.0% | |||
| Turnout | 1,150,481 | 50.11% | |||
| Registered electors | 2,295,906 | ||||
| Republican hold | |||||
Counties that flipped from Republican to Democratic
- Oklahoma (largest city: Oklahoma City)
By congressional district
Mullin won all five congressional districts.[108]
| District | Mullin | Horn | Representative |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1st | 56.5% | 40.5% | Kevin Hern |
| 2nd | 72.5% | 24.6% | Markwayne Mullin (117th Congress) |
| Josh Brecheen (118th Congress) | |||
| 3rd | 67.3% | 29.6% | Frank Lucas |
| 4th | 60.3% | 36.5% | Tom Cole |
| 5th | 53.8% | 43.4% | Stephanie Bice |
See also
Notes
- This poll was conducted in-house by and for Natalie Bruno's campaign for Governor
- Key:
A – all adults
RV – registered voters
LV – likely voters
V – unclear - Coibion, Moreno, Royse, and Tompkins with 0%
- Calculated by taking the difference of 100% and all other candidates combined.
- Woods (I) with 2%; Murphy (L) with 1%
- Murphy (L) with 2%; Woods (I) with 2%
- Woods (I) with 3%; Murphy (L) with 1%
- Woods (I) with 4%; Murphy (L) with 1%
- Murphy (L) with 2%; Woods (I) with 2%
- Murphy (L) with 3%; Woods (I) with 2%
- Woods (I) with 1%; Murphy (L) with <1%
- Woods with 3%
- Murphy with 4%; Woods with 1%
- Woods with 4%