2023 Manitoba general election

Provincial election From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

The 2023 Manitoba general election was held on October 3, 2023, to elect 57 members to the Legislative Assembly of Manitoba. The New Democratic Party of Manitoba, led by Wab Kinew, formed a majority government, defeating the two-term Progressive Conservative government. Following the election, Kinew became the second Indigenous premier of Manitoba and the first First Nations person to become premier of a Canadian province.

Quick facts 57 seats of the Legislative Assembly of Manitoba 29 seats are needed for a majority, Turnout ...
2023 Manitoba general election
← 2019
October 3, 2023
44th →
57 seats of the Legislative Assembly of Manitoba
29 seats are needed for a majority
Turnout55.29% Increase
  First party Second party Third party
 
Leader Wab Kinew Heather Stefanson Dougald Lamont
Party New Democratic Progressive Conservative Liberal
Leader since September 16, 2017 October 30, 2021 October 21, 2017
Leader's seat Fort Rouge Tuxedo St. Boniface (lost re-election)
Last election 18 seats, 31.38% 36 seats, 47.07% 3 seats, 14.48%
Seats before 18 35 3
Seats won 34 22 1
Seat change Increase 16 Decrease 13 Decrease 2
Popular vote 221,695 203,350 51,634
Percentage 45.63% 41.86% 10.63%
Swing Increase 14.25pp Decrease 5.21pp Decrease 3.85pp
Popular vote by riding. As this is an FPTP election, seat totals are not determined by popular vote, but instead via results by each riding. Riding names are listed on the bottom.
Premier before election

Heather Stefanson
Progressive Conservative

 Premier after election

Wab Kinew
New Democratic

Close

The incumbent Progressive Conservative Party of Manitoba, led by Premier Heather Stefanson, had attempted to win a third term in government, having previously won the 2016 and 2019 elections under the leadership of Brian Pallister.

Background

Under Manitoba's Elections Act, a general election must be held no later than the first Tuesday of October in the fourth calendar year following the previous election.[1] As the previous election was held in 2019, the latest possible date for the election was October 3, 2023, which was the official election date.[2] The election was held under first-past-the-post voting.

On August 10, 2021, incumbent premier Brian Pallister announced that he would not seek re-election and resigned shortly after. Members of the Progressive Conservative Party of Manitoba elected Heather Stefanson to succeed Premier Kelvin Goertzen, who served as interim leader of the party after Pallister's departure.[3][4] During the previous legislature, the opposition NDP had gained a polling lead over the PCs. However, the lead tightened during the campaign period.

Campaign

Stefanson primarily campaigned on reducing the cost of living for Manitobans, crime, and parental rights in education.[5][6] Kinew led the NDP into the election.[7] The NDP campaign focused on healthcare reform and balancing the province's budget.[8][9] Dougald Lamont led the Liberals and Janine Gibson led the Green Party, having been elected leader in March.

The PCs promoted the film industry in the province and in 2022 helped WestJet launch direct flights from Los Angeles to Winnipeg.[10] The New Democrats focused on healthcare with a promise to improve cardiac services.[10] They also pledged to install geothermal systems in thousands of homes.[11] The Liberals campaigned on creating more benefits for seniors, including establishing a minimum income for people over 60.[12] They also promised a new debt relief system if elected.[13] The Manitoba Chambers of Commerce encouraged voters to prioritise the economy when voting.[14]

During the final stages of the campaign, a point of contention was the proposed search of a Winnipeg landfill for the remains of the murdered Indigenous women Morgan Harris and Marcedes Myran. The PCs opposed the search, citing health and safety concerns. The Liberals and NDP supported a search.[5][15] Most other Indigenous issues were reportedly side-lined during the campaign.[16]

Other campaign issues included crime,[17] agriculture[18] and affordable housing.[19]

Manitoba had not elected a minority government since 1988, so the media coverage was focused on the PCs and the NDP.[20] In the final days of the campaign, the Manitoba government reported a surplus in the provincial budget worth $270 million.[21]

Incumbents not standing for re-election

More information Electoral district, Incumbent at dissolution and subsequent party nominee ...
Electoral district Incumbent at dissolution and subsequent party nominee New MLA
Agassiz   Eileen Clarke[22] Jodie Byram Jodie Byram
Brandon West   Reg Helwer[23] Wayne Balcaen Wayne Balcaen
Fort Richmond   Sarah Guillemard[24] Paramjit Shahi Jennifer Chen
Kildonan-River East   Cathy Cox[25] Alana Vannahme Rachelle Schott
Lakeside   Ralph Eichler[26] Trevor King Trevor King
La Verendrye   Dennis Smook[27] Konrad Narth Konrad Narth
McPhillips   Shannon Martin[28] Sheilah Restall Jasdeep Devgan
Midland   Blaine Pedersen[29] Lauren Stone Lauren Stone
Portage la Prairie   Ian Wishart[30] Jeff Bereza Jeff Bereza
Roblin   Myrna Driedger[31] Kathleen Cook Kathleen Cook
Spruce Woods   Cliff Cullen[32] Grant Jackson Grant Jackson
Selkirk   Alan Lagimodiere[33] Richard Perchotte   Richard Perchotte
Close

Candidates

See also: List of candidates of the 2023 Manitoba general election

The PCs and New Democrats ran candidates in all 57 ridings, while the Liberals ran candidates in 49 and the Greens in 13, respectively.[34][35][36]


More information Candidates, Total ...
Riding contests, by number of candidates (2023)
Candidates NDP PC Lib Grn KP Comm Ind Total
2 448
3 34343031102
4 161616742364
5 3333315
Total 57574913553189
Close

Timeline

2021

  • July 15: Eileen Clarke resigns as Minister of Indigenous and Northern Relations but stays on as MLA for Agassiz.
  • July 15 Blaine Pedersen resigns as Minister of Agriculture and Resource Development. He announces he will not seek re-election.
  • August 10: Brian Pallister announces he will not seek re-election as the MLA for Fort Whyte and will resign as premier.
  • September 1: Brian Pallister resigns as Premier and leader of the Progressive Conservative Party of Manitoba but remains as the MLA for Fort Whyte.
  • September 1: Kelvin Goertzen is chosen by the Progressive Conservative Party of Manitoba to become its interim leader and the 23rd Premier of Manitoba. Rochelle Squires is appointed as the Deputy Premier.
  • October 4: Brian Pallister resigns as the MLA for Fort Whyte, triggering a by-election.
  • October 30: Heather Stefanson is elected as leader of the Progressive Conservative Party.
  • November 2: Kelvin Goertzen resigns as Premier of Manitoba.
  • November 2: Heather Stefanson is sworn in as the 24th Premier of Manitoba and is the first woman to hold the position.
  • December 9: Danielle Adams (Thompson) dies in office, triggering a by-election.
  • December 30: Ron Schuler is removed from cabinet post as Minister of Infrastructure. Reg Helwer is appointed as acting Minister of Infrastructure.

2022

  • January 18: Premier Heather Stefanson shuffles her cabinet.
  • March 22: Obby Khan is elected in the Fort Whyte by-election, replacing former Premier Brian Pallister. The Progressive Conservatives hold the seat narrowly.
  • June 6: Scott Fielding resigns as Minister of Natural Resources and Northern Development, Minister responsible for Manitoba Liquor and Lotteries and announces his intention to resign as MLA for Kirkfield Park.
  • June 6: Alan Lagimodiere is named acting Minister of Natural Resources and Northern Development, Minister responsible for Manitoba Liquor and Lotteries.
  • June 7: Eric Redhead is elected as the MLA for Thompson, holding the seat for the NDP.
  • June 17: Scott Fielding resigns as MLA for Kirkfield Park.
  • October 4: Ralph Eichler announces he will not seek re-election as MLA for Lakeside.
  • December 16: Ian Wishart announces he will not seek re-election as MLA for Portage La Prairie.

2023

  • January 15: Cathy Cox announces she Will not seek re-election as MLA for Kildonan River East.
  • January 27: Cameron Friesen announces his resignation as finance minister and MLA to seek federal Conservative nomination for Portage—Lisgar.
  • January 30: Cliff Cullen is appointed as finance minister and retains Deputy Premier role.
  • June 13: Sarah Guillemard announces she will not seek re-election as MLA for Fort Richmond.

Results

Results were formally declared on October 3, the night of the election.[37] The NDP only finished four percentage points ahead of the Tories on the popular vote. However, they dominated Winnipeg, taking all but four seats in the capital.[38] Eight members of Stefanson's cabinet were defeated, all in Winnipeg-based ridings.[39] Stefanson herself was nearly defeated in her historically safe seat of Tuxedo, surviving by less than three percentage points.[40]

[41]

More information Party, Leader ...
Elections to the 43rd Manitoba Legislature
Party[42] Leader Candidates Seats Popular vote
2019 Dissolution Elected % +/– Votes % Change
(pp)
New Democratic Wab Kinew 5718183459.65+16221,69545.63+14.25
Progressive Conservative Heather Stefanson 5736352238.60–14203,35041.86−5.21
Liberal Dougald Lamont 493311.75–251,63410.63−3.85
  Keystone Kevin Friesen 5––––−3,7270.77New
Green Janine Gibson 13––––−3,5840.74−5.63
Communist Andrew Taylor 5––––−4610.09+0.04
  Independents 3––––−1,3830.28+0.10
  Vacant 1
Valid votes 189575757––485,834100.00
Blank and invalid votes 3,374
Total votes 489,208
Registered voters/turnout 884,86455.29
Close

Vote and seat summaries

Ternary plots of election results
  • Ternary plot of 2019 results
    2019
  • Ternary plot of 2023 results
    2023
Electoral districts won identified by PC (blue), Liberal (red) and NDP (orange).
Popular vote
NDP
 
 45.63%
PC
 
 41.86%
Liberal
 
 10.63%
Others
 
 1.88%
Seats
NDP
 
 59.65%
PC
 
 38.60%
Liberal
 
 1.75%

Synopsis of results

More information Electoral division, Winning party ...
2023 Manitoba general election – synopsis of riding results[43][44]
Electoral
division		 Winning party Votes
2019 1st
place		 Votes Share Margin
#		 Margin
%		 2nd
place		 3rd
place		 NDP PC Lib Green Ind KP Comm Total
 
Agassiz PCPC4,51963.85%2,96641.91%NDPKP1,5534,519311––694–7,077
Assiniboia PCNDP4,72250.02%9169.70%PCLib4,7223,806913––––9,441
Borderland PCPC4,47972.66%3,55857.72%NDPLib9214,479764––––6,164
Brandon East PCNDP3,75855.64%1,06715.80%PCLib3,7582,691305––––6,754
Brandon West PCPC3,81448.75%891.14%NDPGreen3,7253,814–284–––7,823
Burrows NDPNDP3,03246.04%95814.55%LibPC3,0321,4792,074––––6,585
Concordia NDPNDP4,23564.52%2,38736.37%PCLib4,2351,848481––––6,564
Dauphin PCNDP4,88752.06%3864.11%PCN/A4,8874,501–––––9,388
Dawson Trail PCPC4,59250.70%5436.00%NDPGreen4,0494,592–416–––9,057
Elmwood NDPNDP4,93362.21%2,74534.62%PCLib4,9332,188452304––527,929
Flin Flon NDPNDP2,95176.25%2,03252.51%PCN/A2,951919–––––3,870
Fort Garry NDPNDP5,31958.82%2,91432.22%PCLib5,3192,4051,082237–––9,043
Fort Richmond PCNDP4,45554.45%1,57619.26%PCLib4,4552,879848––––8,182
Fort Rouge NDPNDP6,76170.57%5,19554.22%PCLib6,7611,5661,152–––1029,581
Fort Whyte PCPC5,44247.87%1,22910.81%LibNDP1,7145,4424,213––––11,369
Interlake-Gimli PCPC5,14349.59%6836.59%NDPKP4,4605,143374––393–10,370
Keewatinook NDPNDP1,82059.28%76224.82%PCLib1,8201,058192––––3,070
Kildonan-River East PCNDP5,57449.26%7296.44%PCLib5,5744,845896––––11,315
Kirkfield Park PCNDP5,06744.55%6615.81%PCLib5,0674,4061,696205–––11,374
La Vérendrye PCPC4,58661.02%3,03240.34%NDPKP1,5544,586640––736–7,516
Lac du Bonnet PCPC5,67058.51%2,22322.94%NDPGreen3,4475,670–573–––9,690
Lagimodière PCNDP5,71146.24%1120.91%PCLib5,7115,5991,041––––12,351
Lakeside PCPC6,08861.68%3,40634.51%NDPLib2,6826,0881,101––––9,871
McPhillips PCNDP4,90547.30%3253.13%PCLib4,9054,580886––––10,371
Midland PCPC6,22769.38%4,21646.97%NDPLib2,0116,227737––––8,975
Morden-Winkler PCPC5,13573.47%3,53550.58%NDPLib1,6005,135254––––6,989
Notre Dame NDPNDP3,83275.58%3,10061.14%PCLib3,832732319105––825,070
Point Douglas NDPNDP3,36773.31%2,62557.15%PCLib3,367742484––––4,593
Portage la Prairie PCPC3,81659.61%1,89829.65%NDPGreen1,9183,816301367–––6,402
Radisson PCNDP5,95452.31%1,14710.08%PCLib5,9544,807621––––11,382
Red River North PCPC5,92660.35%2,03320.70%NDPN/A3,8935,926–––––9,819
Riding Mountain PCPC5,64463.02%2,74930.69%NDPLib2,8955,644417––––8,956
Riel PCNDP6,16054.65%1,88216.70%PCLib6,1604,278834––––11,272
River Heights LibNDP5,04744.21%6435.63%LibPC5,0471,8074,404158–––11,416
Roblin PCPC6,08849.72%1,1209.15%NDPLib4,9686,0881,189––––12,245
Rossmere PCNDP4,86350.74%8018.36%PCLib4,8634,062478181–––9,584
Seine River PCNDP5,38152.08%1,40713.62%PCLib5,3813,974846–131––10,332
Selkirk PCPC4,96352.49%4704.97%NDPN/A4,4934,963–––––9,456
Southdale PCNDP5,56948.48%1,64714.34%PCLib5,5693,9221,861–135––11,487
Springfield-Ritchot PCPC5,75254.89%1,92518.37%NDPLib3,8275,752900––––10,479
Spruce Woods PCPC4,98661.81%3,05037.81%NDPLib1,9364,9861,145––––8,067
St. Boniface LibNDP5,58553.38%2,17220.76%LibPC5,5851,3913,413–––7310,462
St. James NDPNDP5,44864.82%3,12237.14%PCLib5,4482,326631––––8,405
St. Johns NDPNDP4,26260.76%3,14544.83%IndPC4,2621,101535–1,117––7,015
St. Vital NDPNDP5,28861.15%2,75131.81%PCLib5,2882,537823––––8,648
Steinbach PCPC5,86874.37%4,64758.90%NDPLib1,2215,868801––––7,890
Swan River PCPC4,80162.91%2,36831.03%NDPKP2,4334,801–––397–7,631
The Maples NDPNDP3,90556.13%2,32533.42%PCLib3,9051,5801,472––––6,957
The Pas-Kameesak NDPNDP3,52267.18%2,01638.45%PCLib3,5221,506215––––5,243
Thompson NDPNDP2,88768.28%1,67339.57%PCLib2,8871,214127––––4,228
Transcona NDPNDP5,23558.50%2,06323.06%PCLib5,2353,172541––––8,948
Turtle Mountain PCPC4,80655.05%2,81332.22%NDPKP1,9934,806425––1,507–8,731
Tuxedo PCPC3,96840.21%2682.72%NDPLib3,7003,9682,201––––9,869
Tyndall Park LibLib4,03054.99%2,12228.96%NDPPC1,9081,3904,030––––7,328
Union Station NDPNDP3,71470.78%2,79753.31%PCLib3,714917616––––5,247
Waverley PCNDP4,06344.10%1151.25%PCLib4,0633,9481,001201–––9,213
Wolseley NDPNDP6,58275.31%5,72165.46%PCLib6,582861592553––1528,740
Close
  = open seat
  = winning candidate was in previous Legislature
  = incumbent had switched allegiance
  = previously incumbent in another riding
  = incumbency arose from a byelection gain
  = not incumbent; was previously elected to the Legislature
  = other incumbents renominated
  = previously an MP in the House of Commons of Canada
  = multiple candidates

Comparative analysis for ridings (2023 vs 2019)

Analytical charts

  • Strength of 1st-place finishes compared between 2023 and 2019 results
    2023 vs 2019
  • 1st-place results analyzed by winning party
    2023 (by winning party)
  • Strength of 2nd-place finishes compared between 2023 and 2019 results
    2023 vs 2019
  • 2nd-place results analyzed by party
    2023 (by party finishing second)
  • Strength of other candidate finishes aggregated, compared between 2023 and 2019 results
    2023 vs 2019
  • Other results grouped, with 3rd-place finishes identified by party
    2023
  • Marginality compared between 2023 and 2019 results
    2023 vs 2019
  • Marginal results analyzed by winning party
    2023 (by winning party)

Turnout, winning shares and swings

More information Riding and winning party, Turnout ...
Summary of riding results by turnout, vote share for winning candidate, and swing (vs 2019)[43][44]
Riding and winning party Turnout Vote share[a 1] Swing[a 2]
% Change (pp) % Change (pp) To Change (pp)
 
AgassizPCHold53.35−2.70
 
63.85−11.67
 
NDP−10.42
 
AssiniboiaNDPGain55.701.00
 
50.0214.55
 
NDP−9.25
 
BorderlandPCHold50.45−11.41
 
72.666.57
 
PC5.38
 
Brandon EastNDPGain46.991.30
 
55.6419.30
 
NDP−15.23
 
Brandon WestPCHold51.680.41
 
48.75−9.64
 
NDP−16.73
 
BurrowsNDPHold44.64−1.43
 
46.046.35
 
NDP5.00
 
ConcordiaNDPHold44.03−4.43
 
64.524.83
 
NDP4.25
 
DauphinNDPGain60.301.68
 
52.069.67
 
NDP−6.12
 
Dawson TrailPCHold56.86−0.98
 
50.70−4.71
 
N/A[a 3]
ElmwoodNDPHold49.32−0.90
 
62.2113.53
 
NDP8.88
 
Flin FlonNDPHold44.1710.26
 
76.2513.06
 
NDP8.17
 
Fort GarryNDPHold58.75−2.94
 
58.8216.47
 
NDP10.84
 
Fort RichmondNDPGain62.074.68
 
54.4532.24
 
PC6.70
 
Fort RougeNDPHold58.04−0.73
 
70.5719.33
 
NDP10.90
 
Fort WhytePCHold64.374.02
 
47.87−9.32
 
NDP−3.26
 
Interlake-GimliPCHold65.04−0.52
 
49.59−9.03
 
NDP−9.48
 
KeewatinookNDPHold39.1417.29
 
59.28−7.80
 
NDP2.26
 
Kildonan-River EastNDPGain63.181.36
 
49.2615.23
 
NDP−11.75
 
Kirkfield ParkNDPGain63.762.51
 
44.5518.87
 
NDP−15.24
 
La VérendryePCHold55.540.13
 
61.02−11.77
 
NDP−9.06
 
Lac du BonnetPCHold60.77−0.46
 
58.51−7.40
 
NDP−11.81
 
LagimodièreNDPGain64.051.78
 
46.2418.37
 
NDP−12.41
 
LakesidePCHold60.981.76
 
61.68−6.56
 
NDP−5.75
 
McPhillipsNDPGain54.61−2.03
 
47.3010.10
 
NDP−2.07
 
MidlandPCHold56.95−2.32
 
69.38−5.63
 
NDP−6.34
 
Morden-WinklerPCHold44.32−6.87
 
73.47−7.39
 
N/A[a 4]
Notre DameNDPHold37.88−2.98
 
75.5810.58
 
NDP5.61
 
Point DouglasNDPHold32.76−3.24
 
73.3110.96
 
NDP4.99
 
Portage la PrairiePCHold46.77−1.87
 
59.61−6.07
 
NDP−7.01
 
RadissonNDPGain57.651.18
 
52.3115.61
 
NDP−10.17
 
Red River NorthPCHold60.47−3.49
 
60.352.38
 
NDP−6.20
 
Riding MountainPCHold57.421.69
 
63.02−2.89
 
NDP−7.01
 
RielNDPGain65.702.46
 
54.6519.26
 
NDP−13.03
 
River HeightsNDPGain67.592.12
 
44.2129.63
 
PC−3.17
 
RoblinPCHold62.540.71
 
49.72−5.47
 
NDP−14.02
 
RossmereNDPGain60.420.80
 
50.7411.89
 
NDP−8.21
 
Seine RiverNDPGain63.641.52
 
52.0826.07
 
NDP−16.32
 
SelkirkPCHold56.29−2.96
 
52.490.65
 
NDP−5.72
 
SouthdaleNDPGain64.723.06
 
48.4810.64
 
NDP−9.45
 
Springfield-RitchotPCHold58.30−2.27
 
54.89−4.59
 
NDP−10.16
 
Spruce WoodsPCHold56.54−0.21
 
61.81−6.26
 
NDP−7.19
 
St. BonifaceNDPGain60.060.28
 
53.3823.51
 
NDP−16.29
 
St. JamesNDPHold54.68−1.11
 
64.8217.56
 
NDP11.36
 
St. JohnsNDPHold46.98−0.36
 
60.768.88
 
NDP8.83
 
St. VitalNDPHold56.88−3.89
 
61.1516.67
 
NDP11.12
 
SteinbachPCHold48.14−4.35
 
74.37−7.26
 
NDP−7.34
 
Swan RiverPCHold57.903.03
 
62.91−5.95
 
NDP−5.98
 
The MaplesNDPHold50.62−2.46
 
56.1316.62
 
NDP12.61
 
The Pas-KameesakNDPHold53.5210.48
 
67.189.27
 
NDP2.44
 
ThompsonNDPHold36.10−1.17
 
68.2813.73
 
NDP10.35
 
TransconaNDPHold51.40−1.05
 
58.5012.09
 
NDP10.88
 
Turtle MountainPCHold55.64−1.65
 
55.05−12.43
 
N/A[a 4]
TuxedoPCHold59.861.96
 
40.21−7.65
 
Lib−3.19
 
Tyndall ParkLibHold49.75−6.64
 
54.990.32
 
Lib2.42
 
Union StationNDPHold42.21−1.85
 
70.7818.16
 
NDP12.58
 
WaverleyNDPGain53.972.02
 
44.1015.50
 
NDP−11.35
 
WolseleyNDPHold53.77−3.19
 
75.3129.28
 
NDP29.47
 
Close
  1. [1]
    Share won by winning candidate, with difference noted from share achieved by the same party in 2019.
  2. [2]
    Positive indicates improvement to standing of party winning in 2019; negative points to 2019's second-place party being swung to.
  3. [3]
    a Liberal candidate came in second in 2019, but did not stand in 2023
  4. [4]
    a Green candidate came in second in 2019, but did not stand in 2023

Changes in party shares

More information Riding, Green ...
Share change analysis by party and riding (2023 vs 2019)[43][44]
Riding Green Liberal NDP PC
% Change (pp) % Change (pp) % Change (pp) % Change (pp)
 
Agassiz–−5.57
 
4.39−1.74
 
21.949.17
 
63.85−11.67
 
Assiniboia–−6.85
 
9.67−3.76
 
50.0214.55
 
40.31−3.94
 
Borderland–−3.38
 
12.39−4.19
 
14.9411.01
 
72.666.57
 
Brandon East4.52−8.15
 
55.6419.30
 
39.84−11.16
 
Brandon West3.63−6.50
 
–−7.68
 
47.6223.82
 
48.75−9.64
 
Burrows31.5013.19
 
46.046.35
 
22.46−3.66
 
Concordia7.33−1.16
 
64.524.83
 
28.15−3.67
 
Dauphin–−7.10
 
52.069.67
 
47.94−2.57
 
Dawson Trail4.594.59
 
–−22.87
 
44.7122.99
 
50.70−4.71
 
Elmwood3.83−5.75
 
5.70−3.65
 
62.2113.53
 
27.59−4.23
 
Flin Flon–−3.82
 
–−5.95
 
76.2513.06
 
23.75−3.28
 
Fort Garry2.62−5.03
 
11.97−6.22
 
58.8216.47
 
26.60−5.22
 
Fort Richmond–−4.93
 
10.36−20.36
 
54.4532.24
 
35.19−6.96
 
Fort Rouge–−16.01
 
12.02−1.05
 
70.5719.33
 
16.34−2.48
 
Fort Whyte–−6.77
 
37.0619.44
 
15.08−2.81
 
47.87−9.32
 
Interlake-Gimli–−4.50
 
3.61−0.20
 
43.019.94
 
49.59−9.03
 
Keewatinook6.25−12.32
 
59.28−7.80
 
34.4620.12
 
Kildonan-River East7.92−6.95
 
49.2615.23
 
42.82−8.28
 
Kirkfield Park1.80−6.48
 
14.91−0.76
 
44.5518.87
 
38.74−11.62
 
La Vérendrye8.52−4.36
 
20.686.34
 
61.02−11.77
 
Lac du Bonnet5.915.91
 
–−14.74
 
35.5716.22
 
58.51−7.40
 
Lagimodière–−5.56
 
8.43−6.36
 
46.2418.37
 
45.33−6.45
 
Lakeside11.151.64
 
27.174.93
 
61.68−6.56
 
McPhillips–−4.71
 
8.54−8.58
 
47.3010.10
 
44.165.97
 
Midland8.21−1.43
 
22.417.06
 
69.38−5.63
 
Morden-Winkler–−10.64
 
3.63−0.03
 
22.8918.06
 
73.47−7.39
 
Notre Dame2.07−3.00
 
6.29−7.37
 
75.5810.58
 
14.44−0.65
 
Point Douglas–−8.23
 
10.54−1.27
 
73.3110.96
 
16.160.99
 
Portage la Prairie5.735.73
 
4.70−7.63
 
29.967.96
 
59.61−6.07
 
Radisson–−5.93
 
5.46−4.94
 
52.3115.61
 
42.23−4.73
 
Red River North–−7.70
 
–−7.65
 
39.6514.78
 
60.352.38
 
Riding Mountain–−7.81
 
4.66−0.42
 
32.3211.13
 
63.02−2.89
 
Riel–−5.96
 
7.40−6.51
 
54.6519.26
 
37.95−6.80
 
River Heights1.38−5.54
 
38.58−15.22
 
44.2129.63
 
15.83−8.87
 
Roblin–−11.02
 
9.71−6.08
 
40.5722.57
 
49.72−5.47
 
Rossmere1.89−4.72
 
4.99−2.65
 
50.7411.89
 
42.38−4.53
 
Seine River–−6.79
 
8.19−13.97
 
52.0826.07
 
38.46−6.58
 
Selkirk–−7.62
 
–−5.13
 
47.5112.10
 
52.490.65
 
Southdale–−5.62
 
16.202.73
 
48.4810.64
 
34.14−8.26
 
Springfield-Ritchot–−11.18
 
8.590.05
 
36.5215.73
 
54.89−4.59
 
Spruce Woods–−9.85
 
14.197.98
 
24.008.13
 
61.81−6.26
 
St. Boniface–−8.48
 
32.62−9.06
 
53.3823.51
 
13.30−5.85
 
St. James–−9.52
 
7.51−2.88
 
64.8217.56
 
27.67−5.16
 
St. Johns–−7.40
 
7.63−8.62
 
60.768.88
 
15.69−8.78
 
St. Vital–−5.46
 
9.52−4.33
 
61.1516.67
 
29.34−5.56
 
Steinbach–−5.47
 
10.155.31
 
15.487.42
 
74.37−7.26
 
Swan River–−5.25
 
31.886.00
 
62.91−5.95
 
The Maples–−4.09
 
21.16−8.60
 
56.1316.62
 
22.71−3.93
 
The Pas-Kameesak–−14.38
 
4.100.71
 
67.189.27
 
28.724.40
 
Thompson–−6.05
 
3.00−0.71
 
68.2813.73
 
28.71−6.97
 
Transcona6.05−2.41
 
58.5012.09
 
35.45−9.68
 
Turtle Mountain–−14.91
 
4.87−1.85
 
22.8311.93
 
55.05−12.43
 
Tuxedo–−8.17
 
22.30−1.26
 
37.4917.70
 
40.21−7.65
 
Tyndall Park–−2.00
 
54.990.32
 
26.04−4.51
 
18.976.46
 
Union Station–−9.72
 
11.74−6.99
 
70.7818.16
 
17.480.32
 
Waverley2.18−2.78
 
10.87−5.53
 
44.1015.50
 
42.85−7.19
 
Wolseley6.33−29.67
 
6.77−1.61
 
75.3129.28
 
9.850.82
 
Close
  = did not field a candidate in 2019

Results by riding

More information Riding, Outgoing MLA ...
Riding Outgoing MLA Elected MLA
Agassiz   Eileen Clarke   Jodie Byram
Assiniboia   Scott Johnston   Nellie Kennedy
Borderland   Josh Guenter   Josh Guenter
Brandon East   Len Isleifson   Glen Simard
Brandon West   Reg Helwer   Wayne Balcaen
Burrows   Diljeet Brar   Diljeet Brar
Concordia   Matt Wiebe   Matt Wiebe
Dauphin   Brad Michaleski   Ron Kostyshyn
Dawson Trail   Bob Lagassé   Bob Lagassé
Elmwood   Jim Maloway   Jim Maloway
Flin Flon   Tom Lindsey   Tom Lindsey
Fort Garry   Mark Wasyliw   Mark Wasyliw
Fort Richmond   Sarah Guillemard   Jennifer Chen
Fort Rouge   Wab Kinew   Wab Kinew
Fort Whyte   Obby Khan   Obby Khan
Interlake-Gimli   Derek Johnson   Derek Johnson
Keewatinook   Ian Bushie   Ian Bushie
Kildonan-River East   Cathy Cox   Rachelle Schott
Kirkfield Park   Kevin Klein   Logan Oxenham
La Verendrye   Dennis Smook   Konrad Narth
Lac du Bonnet   Wayne Ewasko   Wayne Ewasko
Lagimodière   Andrew Smith   Tyler Blashko
Lakeside   Ralph Eichler   Trevor King
McPhillips   Shannon Martin   Jasdeep Devgan
Midland   Blaine Pedersen   Lauren Stone
Morden-Winkler   Cameron Friesen   Carrie Hiebert
Notre Dame   Malaya Marcelino   Malaya Marcelino
Point Douglas   Bernadette Smith   Bernadette Smith
Portage la Prairie   Ian Wishart   Jeff Bereza
Radisson   James Teitsma   Jelynn Dela Cruz
Red River North   Jeff Wharton   Jeff Wharton
Riding Mountain   Greg Nesbitt   Greg Nesbitt
Riel   Rochelle Squires   Mike Moyes
River Heights   Jon Gerrard   Mike Moroz
Roblin   Myrna Driedger   Kathleen Cook
Rossmere   Andrew Micklefield   Tracy Schmidt
Seine River   Janice Morley-Lecomte   Billie Cross
Selkirk   Alan Lagimodiere   Richard Perchotte
Southdale   Audrey Gordon   Renée Cable
Springfield-Ritchot   Ron Schuler   Ron Schuler
Spruce Woods   Cliff Cullen   Grant Jackson
St. Boniface   Dougald Lamont   Robert Loiselle
St. James   Adrien Sala   Adrien Sala
St. Johns   Nahanni Fontaine   Nahanni Fontaine
St. Vital   Jamie Moses   Jamie Moses
Steinbach   Kelvin Goertzen   Kelvin Goertzen
Swan River   Rick Wowchuk   Rick Wowchuk
The Maples   Mintu Sandhu   Mintu Sandhu
The Pas-Kameesak   Amanda Lathlin   Amanda Lathlin
Thompson   Eric Redhead   Eric Redhead
Transcona   Nello Altomare   Nello Altomare
Turtle Mountain   Doyle Piwniuk   Doyle Piwniuk
Tuxedo   Heather Stefanson   Heather Stefanson
Tyndall Park   Cindy Lamoureux   Cindy Lamoureux
Union Station   Uzoma Asagwara   Uzoma Asagwara
Waverley   Jon Reyes   David Pankratz
Wolseley   Lisa Naylor   Lisa Naylor
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Analysis

More information Party in 1st place, Party in 2nd place ...
Party candidates in 2nd place
Party in 1st placeParty in 2nd placeTotal
NDPPCLibInd
New Democratic 303134
Progressive Conservative 21122
Liberal 11
Total 22304157
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More information Parties, 1st ...
Candidates ranked 1st to 5th place, by party
Parties1st2nd3rd4th5th
█ New Democratic 34221
█ Progressive Conservative 22305
█ Liberal 14386
█ Independent 12
█ Keystone 5
█ Green 49
█ Communist 23
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More information Source, Party ...
Resulting composition of the 43rd Manitoba Legislature
SourceParty
NDP PC Lib Total
Seats retainedIncumbents returned 1812131
Open seats held 1010
Seats changing handsIncumbents defeated 1212
Open seats gained 44
Total 3422157
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Aftermath

Liberal leader Dougald Lamont resigned on election night following a dismal performance for his party. Both he and Jon Gerrard lost their seats to NDP challengers, leaving Cindy Lamoureux as the sole Liberal in the legislative assembly.[45] Outgoing premier and PC leader Heather Stefanson also announced her resignation as party leader on election night.

Seats changing hands

Defeated MLAs

More information Constituency, Party ...
Constituency Party Name Year elected Seat held by party since Defeated by Party
St. Boniface █ Liberal Dougald Lamont 2018 b.e 2018 b.e Robert Loiselle █ New Democratic
River Heights █ Liberal Jon Gerrard 1999 1999 Mike Moroz █ New Democratic
Southdale █ Progressive Conservative Audrey Gordon 2019 2016 Renée Cable █ New Democratic
Kirkfield Park █ Progressive Conservative Kevin Klein 2022 2016 Logan Oxenham █ New Democratic
Radisson █ Progressive Conservative James Teitsma 2016 2016 Jelynn Dela Cruz █ New Democratic
Seine River █ Progressive Conservative Janice Morley-Lecomte 2016 2016 Billie Cross █ New Democratic
Waverley █ Progressive Conservative Jon Reyes 2016 2019 (District Created) David Pankratz █ New Democratic
Brandon East █ Progressive Conservative Len Isleifson 2016 2016 Glen Simard █ New Democratic
Riel █ Progressive Conservative Rochelle Squires 2016 2016 Mike Moyes █ New Democratic
Lagimodière █ Progressive Conservative Andrew Smith 2016 2019 (District Created) Tyler Blashko █ New Democratic
Assiniboia █ Progressive Conservative Scott Johnston 2016 2016 Nellie Kennedy █ New Democratic
Rossmere █ Progressive Conservative Andrew Micklefield 2016 2016 Tracy Schmidt █ New Democratic
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Open seats

More information Constituency, Party ...
Constituency Party Candidate Incumbent retiring from the legislature Won by Party
Fort Richmond █ Progressive Conservative Paramjit Shahi Sarah Guillemard[24] Jennifer Chen █ New Democratic
Kildonan-River East █ Progressive Conservative Alana Vannahme Cathy Cox[25] Rachelle Schott █ New Democratic
McPhillips █ Progressive Conservative Sheilah Restall Shannon Martin Jasdeep Devgan █ New Democratic
Dauphin █ Progressive Conservative Gord Wood Brad Michaleski Ron Kostyshyn █ New Democratic
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Marginal seats

Previous marginal seats

Seats in the 2019 general election which were won by under 10%

More information Seat, 2019 held ...
Seat 2019 held 2023 winner
Party Margin Party Margin
McPhillips   PC 1.00%   NDP 3.02%
Transcona   NDP 1.29%   NDP 23.06%
Southdale   PC 4.56%   NDP 14.32%
Rossmere   PC 8.06%   NDP 8.29%
Dauphin   PC 8.13%   NDP 3.28%
Assiniboia   PC 8.79%   NDP 9.69%
Riel   PC 9.36%   NDP 16.61%
St. Vital   NDP 9.58%   NDP 30.79%
The Maples   NDP 9.75%   NDP 32.33%
Wolseley   NDP 9.98%   NDP 65.42%
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New marginal seats

Seats in this general election which were won by under 10%.

More information Seat, 2019 held ...
Seat 2019 held 2023 Winner
Party Margin Party Margin
Lagimodière   PC 23.91%   NDP 0.84%
Brandon West   PC 24.59%   PC 1.22%
Waverley   PC 21.45%   NDP 1.30%
Tuxedo   PC 24.57%   PC 2.65%
McPhillips   PC 1.00%   NDP 3.02%
Dauphin   PC 8.13%   NDP 3.28%
Selkirk   PC 16.42%   PC 4.98%
River Heights   Lib 29.09%   NDP 5.58%
Kirkfield Park   PC 24.68%   NDP 5.94%
Interlake-Gimli   PC 25.55%   PC 6.59%
Kildonan-River East   PC 17.06%   NDP 6.71%
Rossmere   PC 8.06%   NDP 8.29%
Dawson Trail   PC 32.54%   PC 8.90%
Roblin   PC 37.19%   PC 9.15%
Assiniboia   PC 8.79%   NDP 9.69%
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Opinion polls

Graph of opinion polls conducted. Trend lines represent local regressions.
More information Voting intentions in Manitoba since the 2019 election, Polling firm ...
Voting intentions in Manitoba since the 2019 election
Polling firm Dates conducted Source PC NDP Liberal Green Others Margin of error Sample size Polling method Lead
Forum Research Oct 2, 2023 [p 1] 41.3% 44.7% 12.3% 0.9% 0.8% 3.3% 910 IVR 3.4%
Research Co. Sep 30–Oct 2, 2023 [p 2] 39% 48% 10% 2% 1% 4% 600 Online 9%
Mainstreet Research Sep 28–Oct 1, 2023 [p 3] 41% 47% 10% 1% 1% 3.7% 698 Smart IVR 6%
Sovereign North Strategies Sep 17–19, 2023 [p 4] 42.5% 39.4% 15.9% 2.2% N/A 3.9% 852 Telephone 3.1%
Angus Reid Sep 13–19, 2023 [p 5] 41% 47% 9% 2% 1% 4% 990 Online 6%
Probe Research Sep 7–18, 2023 [p 6] 38% 49% 9% 2% 2% 3.1% 1,000 Online 11%
Research Co. Sep 15–17, 2023 [p 7] 39% 41% 14% 3% 2% 4% 600 Online 2%
Counsel Public Affairs Sep 11–16, 2023 [p 8] 39% 44% 13% 2% 2% 4% 505 Online 5%
Mainstreet Research Aug 28 – Sep 2, 2023 [p 9] 43% 42% 9% 3% 3% 4% 601 Smart IVR 1%
Mainstreet Research Jul 26–28, 2023 [p 10] 42% 38% 12% 3% 4% 4% 597 Smart IVR 4%
Probe Research May 31 – Jun 13, 2023 [p 11] 41% 41% 10% 5% 3% 3.1% 1,000 Online Tie
Angus Reid May 30 – Jun 3, 2023 [p 12] 39% 44% 10% 4% 4% 4% 515 Online 5%
March 26, 2023Janine Gibson is elected leader of the Green Party of Manitoba
Probe Research Mar 8–20, 2023 [p 13] 38% 44% 9% 4% 4% 3.1% 1,000 Online 6%
Mainstreet Research Jan 24–26, 2023 [p 14] 36.2% 41.5% 14.6% 5.1% 2.1% 4.3% 514 Smart IVR 5.3%
Probe Research Nov 22 – Dec 5, 2022 [p 15] 35% 46% 13% 3% 2% 3.1% 1,000 Telephone/Online 11%
Probe Research Sep 8–18, 2022 [p 16] 37% 44% 15% 3% 1% 3.1% 1,000 Telephone 7%
Angus Reid Jun 7–13, 2022 [p 17] 38% 40% 13% 3% 6% 5% 468 Online 2%
Probe Research Jun 1–12, 2022 [p 18] 35% 45% 13% 3% 4% 3.1% 1,000 Telephone 10%
Probe Research Mar 9–21, 2022 [p 19] 34% 44% 15% 2% 5% 3.1% 1,000 Telephone 10%
Angus Reid Mar 10–15, 2022 [p 20][p 21] 39% 40% 14% 3% 5% 4% 475 Online 1%
Angus Reid Jan 7–12, 2022 [p 22] 36% 42% 12% 3% 6% 5% 407 Online 6%
Probe Research Nov 23 – Dec 5, 2021 [p 23] 37% 42% 12% 4% 5% 3.1% 1,000 Telephone 5%
October 30, 2021Heather Stefanson is elected leader of the Manitoba Progressive Conservative Party
Innovative Research Sep 24 – Oct 5, 2021 [p 24] 41% 32% 18% 5% 3% N/A 678 Online 9%
Angus Reid Sep 29 – Oct 3, 2021 [p 25] 38% 43% 11% 4% 5% N/A 435 Online 5%
Probe Research Sep 7–20, 2021 [p 26] 35% 42% 12% 3% 8% 3.1% 1,000 Telephone 7%
Probe Research Jun 2–11, 2021 [p 27] 29% 47% 14% 5% 5% 3.1% 1,000 Telephone 18%
Angus Reid Jun 2–7, 2021 [p 28] 39% 42% 11% 4% 4% 4.0% 504 Online 3%
Probe Research Mar 10–26, 2021 [p 29] 36% 42% 11% 7% 4% 3.1% 1,000 Telephone 6%
Probe Research Nov 24 – Dec 4, 2020 [p 30] 37% 41% 14% 6% 3% 3.1% 1,000 Telephone 4%
Angus Reid Nov 24–30, 2020 [p 31] 39% 40% 12% 5% 4% 4.8% 420 Online 1%
Probe Research Sep 8–17, 2020 [p 32] 43% 34% 16% 5% 3% 3.1% 1,000 Telephone 9%
EKOS Jul 24 – Aug 26, 2020 [p 33] 44% 31% 12% 9% 4% 2.9% 1,154 HD-IVR 13%
EKOS Jun 16 – Jul 23, 2020 [p 34] 43% 27% 18% 7% 5% 2.4% 1,691 HD-IVR 16%
Probe Research Jun 2–11, 2020 [p 35] 38% 36% 18% 7% 2% 3.1% 1,000 Telephone 2%
Innovative Research May 29 – Jun 3, 2020 [p 36] 38% 26% 26% 10% N/A N/A 200 Online 12%
Probe Research Mar 10–24, 2020 [p 37] 43% 33% 14% 8% 2% 3.1% 1,000 Telephone 10%
Probe Research Nov 27 – Dec 10, 2019 [p 38] 42% 36% 13% 8% 2% 3.1% 1,000 Telephone 6%
2019 general election September 10, 2019 — 47.1% 31.4% 14.5% 6.4% 0.6% — — — 15.7%
Polling firm Dates conducted Source Others Margin of error Sample size Polling method Lead
PC NDP Liberal Green
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See also

References

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