44th Manitoba general election
Provincial election
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The 44th Manitoba general election will be held on or before October 5, 2027,[1] to elect 57 members to the Legislative Assembly of Manitoba.
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On or before October 5, 2027
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57 seats of the Legislative Assembly of Manitoba 29 seats are needed for a majority | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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Background
Under Manitoba's Elections Act, a general election must be held no later than the first Tuesday of October in the fourth calendar year following the previous election.[2] As the previous election was held in 2023, the latest possible date for the election is October 5, 2027.[3] The election will be held under first-past-the-post voting.
Current standings
| Party | 2023 | Gain/(loss) due to | Current | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Resignation or death of MLA |
Left Caucus | Removed from caucus |
By-election | ||||
| New Democratic | 34 | (2) | (1) | 3 | 34 | ||
| Progressive Conservative | 22 | (2) | (1) | 1 | 20 | ||
| Liberal | 1 | 1 | |||||
| Independent | – | 1 | 1 | 2 | |||
| Total | 57 | (4) | – | 4 | 57 | ||
Incumbents not standing for re-election
| Electoral district | Incumbent at dissolution and subsequent party nominee | New MLA | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Turtle Mountain | Doyle Piwniuk[4] | ||||
| Steinbach | Kelvin Goertzen[5] | ||||
| Springfield-Ritchot | Ron Schuler[6] | ||||
| Selkirk | Richard Perchotte[7] | ||||
| Red River North | Jeff Wharton[8] | ||||
Timeline
| Seat | Before | Change | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Date | Member | Party | Reason | Date | Member | Party | |
| Tuxedo | May 6, 2024 | Heather Stefanson | █ PC | Resignation[9] | July 8, 2024[10] | Carla Compton | █ New Democratic |
| Fort Garry | September 16, 2024 | Mark Wasyliw | █ New Democratic | Removed from caucus[11] | █ Independent | ||
| Transcona | January 14, 2025 | Nello Altomare | █ New Democratic | Died in office | March 18, 2025 | Shannon Corbett | █ New Democratic |
| Spruce Woods | March 24, 2025 | Grant Jackson | █ PC | Resigned to run federally | August 26, 2025 | Colleen Robbins | █ PC |
| Dawson Trail | March 10, 2026 | Bob Lagassé | █ PC | Left PC Caucus | █ Independent | ||
| The Pas-Kameesak | March 21, 2026 | Amanda Lathlin | █ New Democratic | Died in office | July 21, 2026 | Jennifer Flett | █ New Democratic |
2023
- October 3: The 2023 Manitoba general election is held, resulting in a majority for the New Democratic Party. The Progressive Conservative Party becomes the Official Opposition, and the Liberal Party is reduced to one seat. PC leader Heather Stefanson announced her intent to resign once her successor is chosen, while she will remain as MLA for Tuxedo. Dougald Lamont resigns as Liberal leader on election night after he loses his seat of Saint Boniface.[12]
- October 17: Cindy Lamoureux, MLA for Tyndall Park, is selected as interim leader of the Manitoba Liberal Party.[13]
- October 18: The Kinew ministry is sworn in.[14]
2024
- January 15: Heather Stefanson resigns as Leader of the Progressive Conservative Party
- January 18: Wayne Ewasko is chosen as the interim leader of the Progressive Conservative Party, replacing outgoing leader Heather Stefanson.
- April 25: Heather Stefanson announces her intention to vacate her seat on May 6. A by-election was held to fill the seat on June 18.
- May 6: Heather Stefanson Resigns as the MLA for Tuxedo
- June 18: New Democrat Carla Compton wins the Tuxedo by-election, gaining the seat from the Progressive Conservatives.
- September 16: Mark Wasyliw, MLA for Fort Garry, is removed from the NDP caucus and will sit as an independent.
2025
- January 14: Education and Early Childhood Learning Minister and MLA for Transcona Nello Altomare dies in office.
- January 23: Tracy Schmidt becomes Minister of Education and Early Childhood Learning, and Riel MLA Mike Moyes becomes Minister of Environment and Climate Change.
- March 18: New Democrat Shannon Corbett wins the Transcona by-election, holding the seat for the NDP and becomes the first Woman to be elected the MLA for Transcona.
- March 24: Progressive Conservative MLA for Spruce Woods, Grant Jackson resigns his seat to run for the federal Conservatives in Brandon—Souris.
- April 26: Obby Khan is elected as leader of the Progressive Conservative Party.
- August 26: Progressive Conservative Colleen Robbins wins the Spruce Woods by-election, holding the seat for the Progressive Conservatives.
- September 29: Willard Reaves is acclaimed as leader of the Liberal Party.[15]
- November 12: Progressive Conservative MLA for Turtle Mountain, Doyle Piwniuk announces he will not seek re-election in the 44th General Election.
- December 10: Progressive Conservative MLA for Steinbach and 23rd Premier of Manitoba Kelvin Goertzen announces he will not seek re-election in the 44th General Election.
- December 17: Progressive Conservative MLA for Springfield-Ritchot and former Cabinet Minister Ron Schuler announces he will not seek re-election in the 44th General Election.
2026
- March 5: One term Progressive Conservative MLA for Selkirk Richard Perchotte will not seek re-election in the 44th General Election.
- March 10: Progressive Conservative MLA for Dawson Trail Bob Lagassé announces in the legislature that he is leaving the PC Caucus and will sit as an Independent as well as run as an Independent in the 44th Manitoba General Election.
- March 21: NDP MLA for The Pas-Kameesak Amanda Lathlin, the first First Nations woman ever elected in Manitoba, dies in office.
- July 21: New Democrat Jennifer Flett wins the The Pas-Kameesak by-election, holding the seat for the NDP.
Legislature summary
| Party | Leader | Candidates | Seats | Popular vote | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | Current | Next | +/- | Votes | % | +/- | ||||
| New Democratic | Wab Kinew | 23 | 34 | 34 | ||||||
| Progressive Conservative | Obby Khan | 21 | 22 | 20 | ||||||
| Liberal | Willard Reaves | 8 | 1 | 1 | ||||||
| Keystone | Kevin Friesen | – | – | – | – | – | ||||
| Green | Janine Gibson | – | – | – | – | – | ||||
| Communist | Cam Scott | – | – | – | – | – | ||||
| Independents | 2 | – | 2 | – | – | |||||
| Vacant | – | – | ||||||||
| Blank and invalid votes | ||||||||||
| Total | 54 | 57 | 57 | – | ||||||
| Registered voters/turnout | ||||||||||
Candidates
† = not seeking re-election
‡ = running for re-election in different constituency
italics indicates contestant for nomination or declared interest
bold indicates party leader
Northern Manitoba
| Electoral district | Candidates | Incumbent | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NDP | PC | Liberal | Keystone | Green | ||||||||
| Flin Flon | Tom Lindsey | |||||||||||
| Keewatinook | Ian Bushie | |||||||||||
| Swan River | Rick Wowchuk | Rick Wowchuk | ||||||||||
| The Pas-Kameesak | Jennifer Flett | |||||||||||
| Thompson | Eric Redhead | |||||||||||
Westman/Parkland
| Electoral district | Candidates | Incumbent | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NDP | PC | Liberal | Keystone | Green | ||||||||
| Agassiz | Jodie Byram | Jodie Byram | ||||||||||
| Turtle Mountain | Rick Pauls | Mark Custance | Doyle Piwniuk† | |||||||||
| Brandon East | Glen Simard[16] | Glen Simard | ||||||||||
| Brandon West | Cora Dupuis | Wayne Balcaen | Wayne Balcaen | |||||||||
| Dauphin | Ron Kostyshyn | Ron Kostyshyn | ||||||||||
| Riding Mountain | Greg Nesbitt | Greg Nesbitt | ||||||||||
| Spruce Woods | Colleen Robbins | Colleen Robbins | ||||||||||
Central Manitoba
| Electoral district | Candidates | Incumbent | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NDP | PC | Liberal | Keystone | Green | ||||||||
| Borderland | Josh Guenter | Josh Guenter | ||||||||||
| Interlake-Gimli | Sarah Pinsent–Bardarson | Derek Johnson | Derek Johnson | |||||||||
| Lakeside | Trevor King | Trevor King | ||||||||||
| Midland | Lauren Stone | Lauren Stone | ||||||||||
| Morden-Winkler | Carrie Hiebert | Carrie Hiebert | ||||||||||
| Springfield-Ritchot | Adam McAllister | Ron Schuler† | ||||||||||
| Portage la Prairie | Jeff Bereza | Jeff Bereza | ||||||||||
Eastman
| Electoral district | Candidates | Incumbent | ||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NDP | PC | Liberal | Keystone | Green | Independent | |||||||||
| Dawson Trail | Kyle Waczko | Bob Lagasse | Bob Lagassé | |||||||||||
| Lac du Bonnet | Wayne Ewasko | Wayne Ewasko | ||||||||||||
| La Verendrye | Konrad Narth | Konrad Narth | ||||||||||||
| Steinbach | Michael Zwaagstra | Kelvin Goertzen† | ||||||||||||
| Red River North | Shaun Jeffrey | Jeff Wharton† | ||||||||||||
| Selkirk | Richard Perchotte† | |||||||||||||
Northwest Winnipeg
| Electoral district | Candidates | Incumbent | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NDP | PC | Liberal | Independent | |||||||
| Burrows | Diljeet Brar | Diljeet Brar | ||||||||
| Kildonan-River East | Rachelle Schott | Rachelle Schott | ||||||||
| McPhillips | JD Devgan | Serena Klos | JD Devgan | |||||||
| Point Douglas | Bernadette Smith | |||||||||
| St. Johns | Patrick Allard | Nahanni Fontaine | ||||||||
| The Maples | Mintu Sandhu | Mintu Sandhu | ||||||||
| Tyndall Park | Cindy Lamoureux | Cindy Lamoureux | ||||||||
Northeast Winnipeg
| Electoral district | Candidates | Incumbent | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NDP | PC | Liberal | Green | Communist | ||||||||
| Concordia | Matt Wiebe | Matt Wiebe | ||||||||||
| Elmwood | Jim Maloway | Jim Maloway | ||||||||||
| Radisson | Jelynn Dela Cruz | Jelynn Dela Cruz | ||||||||||
| Rossmere | Tracy Schmidt | Tracy Schmidt | ||||||||||
| St. Boniface | Robert Loiselle | Robert Loiselle | ||||||||||
| Transcona | Shannon Corbett | Lorene Mann–Baxter | Shannon Corbett | |||||||||
West Winnipeg
| Electoral district | Candidates | Incumbent | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NDP | PC | Liberal | Green | |||||||
| Assiniboia | Nellie Kennedy | Nellie Kennedy | ||||||||
| Roblin | Kathleen Cook | Kathleen Cook | ||||||||
| Kirkfield Park | Rachel Punzalan | Marlon Guy Watts | Logan Oxenham | |||||||
| St. James | Adrien Sala | Adrien Sala | ||||||||
| Tuxedo | Carla Compton | Dan Sprintz | Carla Compton | |||||||
Central Winnipeg
| Electoral district | Candidates | Incumbent | ||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NDP | PC | Liberal | Green | Communist | Independent | |||||||||
| Fort Garry | Shandi Strong | Mark Wasyliw | ||||||||||||
| Fort Rouge | Wab Kinew | Wab Kinew | ||||||||||||
| Notre Dame | Malaya Marcelino | |||||||||||||
| River Heights | Mike Moroz | Willard Reaves | Mike Moroz | |||||||||||
| Union Station | Uzoma Asagwara | |||||||||||||
| Wolseley | Lisa Naylor | Lisa Naylor | ||||||||||||
South Winnipeg
| Electoral district | Candidates | Incumbent | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NDP | PC | Liberal | Green | Independent | ||||||||
| Fort Richmond | Jennifer Chen | |||||||||||
| Fort Whyte | Obby Khan | Ian Duncan | Obby Khan | |||||||||
| Lagimodière | Tyler Blashko | Tyler Blashko | ||||||||||
| Riel | Mike Moyes | Mike Moyes | ||||||||||
| Seine River | Billie Cross | Glen Irvine | Jasbir Singh | Billie Cross | ||||||||
| Southdale | Renee Cable | Renee Cable | ||||||||||
| St. Vital | Jamie Moses | David Hykaway | Jamie Moses | |||||||||
| Waverley | David Pankratz | David Pankratz | ||||||||||
Opinion polling
| Voting intentions in Manitoba since the 2023 election | ||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Polling firm | Dates conducted | Source | NDP | PC | Liberal | Keystone | Green | Others | Margin of error | Sample size | Polling method | Lead |
| Probe Research | May 25 – Jun 8, 2026 | [p 1][p 2] | 55% | 32% | 8% | 2% | 2% | 2% | 3.1% | 1,000 | mixed | 23% |
| Probe Research | Mar 1–17, 2026 | [p 3][p 4] | 55% | 35% | 6% | 1% | 2% | 1% | 3.1% | 1,000 | mixed | 20% |
| Probe Research | Nov 25 – Dec 10, 2025 | [p 5][p 6] | 53% | 32% | 9% | 2% | 4% | 0% | 3.1% | 1,000 | mixed | 21% |
| Angus Reid | Nov 26 – Dec 1, 2025 | [p 7] | 45% | 46% | 7% | – | 1% | 1% | 5% | 315 | online | 1% |
| Willard Reaves is elected leader of the Manitoba Liberal Party | ||||||||||||
| Probe Research | Sep 4–14, 2025 | [p 8] | 53% | 34% | 8% | 1% | 4% | 1% | 3.1% | 1,000 | mixed | 19% |
| Angus Reid | Aug 28 – Sep 5, 2025 | [p 9][p 10] | 48% | 41% | 10% | – | 0% | 2% | 5% | 334 | online | 7% |
| Probe Research | May 28 – Jun 10, 2025 | [p 11] | 57% | 32% | 8% | 2% | 1% | 0% | 3.1% | 1,000 | mixed | 25% |
| Canadian Election Study | Apr 29 – May 13, 2025 | [p 12] | 47% | 36% | 15% | – | 2% | 1% | N/A | 419 | online | 11% |
| Obby Khan is elected leader of the Manitoba Progressive Conservative Party | ||||||||||||
| Probe Research | Mar 4–16, 2025 | [p 13] | 57% | 33% | 8% | 1% | 1% | 0% | 3.1% | 1,000 | mixed | 24% |
| Probe Research | Nov 26 – Dec 10, 2024 | [p 14] | 53% | 34% | 6% | 2% | 2% | 2% | 3.1% | 1,000 | mixed | 19% |
| Probe Research | Sep 5–15, 2024 | [p 15] | 56% | 34% | 4% | 3% | 1% | 1% | 3.1% | 1,000 | mixed | 22% |
| Probe Research | May 28 – Jun 9, 2024 | [p 16][p 17] | 51% | 38% | 6% | 1% | 1% | 1% | 3.1% | 1,000 | mixed | 13% |
| Probe Research | Mar 5–18, 2024 | [p 18][p 19] | 49% | 37% | 8% | 1% | 2% | 2% | 3.1% | 1,000 | mixed | 12% |
| Probe Research | Nov 22 – Dec 1, 2023 | [p 20][p 21] | 51% | 38% | 7% | 1% | 2% | 1% | 3.1% | 1,000 | mixed | 13% |
| 2023 general election | October 3, 2023 | [p 22] | 45.63% | 41.86% | 10.63% | 0.77% | 0.74% | 0.37% | — | — | — | 3.77% |
| Polling firm | Dates conducted | Source | Others | Margin of error | Sample size | Polling method | Lead | |||||
| NDP | PC | Liberal | Keystone | Green | ||||||||