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2024 United Kingdom general election in Northern Ireland

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On 4 July 2024, the 2024 United Kingdom general election was held in Northern Ireland, to elect all 650 members of the House of Commons, including the 18 Northern Ireland seats.

Quick facts All 18 Northern Ireland seats to the House of Commons, First party ...
2024 United Kingdom general election in Northern Ireland
 2019
4 July 2024 (2024-07-04)
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All 18 Northern Ireland seats to the House of Commons
  First party Second party Third party
 
Leader Michelle O'Neill[a] Gavin Robinson Colum Eastwood
Party Sinn Féin DUP SDLP
Leader since 23 January 2017[b] 29 May 2024 14 November 2015
Leader's seat MLA for Mid Ulster Belfast East Foyle
Last election 22.8%, 7 MPs 30.6%, 8 MPs 14.9%, 2 MPs
Seats won 7 5 2
Seat change Steady Decrease 3 Steady
Popular vote 210,891 172,058 86,861
Percentage 27.0% 22.1% 11.1%
Swing Increase 4.2% Decrease 8.5% Decrease 3.8%

  Fourth party Fifth party Sixth party
 
Leader Naomi Long Doug Beattie Jim Allister
Party Alliance UUP TUV
Leader since 26 October 2016 17 May 2021 7 December 2007
Leader's seat MLA for Belfast East[c] MLA for Upper Bann Ran in North Antrim (won)[d]
Last election 16.8%, 1 MP 11.7%, 0 MPs Did not contest
Seats won 1 1 1
Seat change Steady Increase 1 Increase 1
Popular vote 117,191 94,779 48,685
Percentage 15.0% 12.2% 6.2%
Swing Decrease 1.8% Increase 0.5% Increase 6.2%

Results by constituencies
Close

The general election occurred after the recently completed constituency boundaries review.

Background

Electoral system

MPs are elected in 18 single-member constituencies by first-past-the-post.

Date of the election

On 22 May 2024, Prime Minister Rishi Sunak announced 4 July 2024 as the election date.[1]

Constituency boundaries

Map of the 18 constituencies to be used.

In June 2023, it was published that The Boundary Commission for Northern Ireland had made final recommendations for the new boundaries for Northern Ireland's 18 parliamentary constituencies. The report was submitted to the speaker of the UK House of Commons and the UK Government was required to submit a draft of an Order in Council to activate the new boundaries within four months.[2] Changes include:

Ten wards were moved and as approved by MPs, the new boundaries became effective on 1 November 2023.[3] These changes were approved at a meeting of the Privy Council on 15 November[4] and came into force on 29 November.[5]

Campaign

In the run up to the election, there was speculation to the extent at which unionist electoral pacts would be active in some constituencies.[6] In July 2023, Ulster Unionist Party (UUP) leader Doug Beattie clarified that his party intends to stand candidates in 17 constituencies, but there was still speculation about whether the Traditional Unionist Voice (TUV) would field candidates.[7] The TUV leader Jim Allister said that in seats held by non-unionists where the sitting MP could potentially be ousted, it would support an "agreed single unionist candidate".[8]

In North Down, there were calls for unionist parties to drop their own candidates and unite behind a single contender to defeat incumbent Alliance MP Stephen Farry.[9] Farry was confirmed as Alliance's candidate for North Down on 26 November 2023.[10] On 24 January 2024, the UUP selected former Iraq War veteran Tim Collins as their candidate for North Down, with the UUP leader Doug Beattie saying his party "does not do pacts".[11] Independent Unionist MLA Alex Easton announced his candidacy for the seat on 25 April 2024.[12]

In October 2023 the Alliance Party of Northern Ireland revealed that they intended to target Lagan Valley, seat of the then-leader of the Democratic Unionist Party (DUP) Jeffrey Donaldson. They unveiled their candidate as Sorcha Eastwood and required a 7.16% swing to gain the seat from the DUP.[13]

Amongst majority nationalist constituencies, due to their strong performance in the 2022 Assembly election and the 2023 local elections, Sinn Féin look "likely to increase its number of seats at Westminster", with the possibility of gaining Social Democratic and Labour Party (SDLP) leader Colum Eastwood's seat of Foyle.[14]

The campaign got underway in South Belfast and North Down, with both incumbent MPs, Claire Hanna and Stephen Farry seeking re-election. North Down Ulster Unionist candidate Tim Collins said he was "very confident" of unseating Farry.[15]

In January 2024, the Ulster Unionist Party selected their former leader and Minister of Health Robin Swann as their candidate for South Antrim[16] and announced their deputy leader, Robbie Butler, as the party's candidate for Lagan Valley.[17]

On 16 March 2024, the Traditional Unionist Voice formed an electoral pact with Reform UK, in which the two parties would stand mutually agreed candidates within Northern Ireland.[18] On 24 May they announced that they were supporting Alex Easton, the Independent Unionist candidate in North Down, and would not stand a candidate in that constituency.[19]

The leader of the Green Party Northern Ireland, Sen. Mal O'Hara, told Slugger O'Toole on 26 April 2024 that they would stand in every constituency and would not pursue any electoral pacts.[20]

On 7 May 2024, the UUP announced that 19 year-old Jay Basra, who is Punjabi-British, would be their candidate for Mid Ulster.[21] Following the announcement, Basra was the target of racial abuse on social media. The abuse was condemned by UUP leader Doug Beattie and former First Minister Arlene Foster, as well as deputy First Minister Emma Little-Pengelly.[22]

Jeffrey Donaldson, who was the DUP leader until March 2024, appeared in court on 3 July to face additional sex offence charges.[23][24]

Candidates

By affiliation

By constituency

More information Constituency, Sinn Féin ...
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Opinion polling

More information Date(s) conducted, Pollster ...
Date(s)
conducted
Pollster Client Sample
size
DUP SF Alliance SDLP UUP TUV Others Lead
7 Jul 2024 2024 general election[26] 22.1% 27.0% 15.0% 11.1% 12.2% 6.2% 6.4% 4.9
24–25 Jun 2024 LucidTalk[27] Belfast Telegraph 3,859 21% 23% 18% 14% 13% 4%
7%
2
8–10 Jun 2024 LucidTalk[28] Belfast Telegraph 3,634 21% 24% 17% 13% 12% 5%
8%
3
10–13 May 2024 LucidTalk[29] Belfast Telegraph 3,316 20% 26% 15% 10% 13% 8%
8%
6
28 Jan 11 Feb 2024 Social Market Research[30] Irish News–University of Liverpool 1,206 23.5% 31.1% 15.2% 8.1% 11.1% 4.8% 6.6
26 Oct 3 Nov 2023 Social Market Research[31] Institute of Irish Studies 1,074 25% 31% 15% 9% 11% 5% 5% 6
14 Jan – 7 Sep 2023 Northern Ireland Life and Times Survey[e] ARK 1,200 19% 24% 28% 9% 13%
9%
4
12 Dec 2019 2019 general election 30.6% 22.8% 16.8% 14.9% 11.7% N/A 3.2% 7.8
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Projections

More information Source, Date ...
Final projections of number of seats
Source Date DUP SF SDLP APNI UUP TUV Ind. Others
Electoral Calculus[33] 4 July 7 7 2 1 1 0 0 0
Bunker Consulting Group[34] 1 July 6 7 2 2 1 0 0 0
Ireland Votes[35] 25 May 5 7 2 1 1 1 1 0
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Leadership approval ratings

Michelle O'Neill

The following polls asked about voters' opinions on Michelle O'Neill, the First Minister of Northern Ireland since 3 February 2024, Vice President of Sinn Féin since 10 February 2018 and Deputy First Minister of Northern Ireland from 11 January 2020 to 4 February 2022.

More information Date(s) conducted, Pollster ...
Date(s)
conducted
Pollster Client Sample size Good/great Bad/awful Don't know Net approval
11–14 Aug 2023 LucidTalk Belfast Telegraph 2,950 43% 37% 20% +6%
21–24 Apr 2023 LucidTalk Belfast Telegraph 3,957 41% 37% 22% +4%
20–23 Jan 2023 LucidTalk Belfast Telegraph 1,449 41% 40% 19% +1%
4–7 Nov 2022 LucidTalk Belfast Telegraph 3,351 46% 37% 17% +9%
12–15 Aug 2022 LucidTalk Belfast Telegraph 3,384 40% 42% 18% –2%
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Jeffrey Donaldson

The following polls asked about voters' opinions on Jeffrey Donaldson, the leader of the Democratic Unionist Party (DUP) from 30 June 2021 to 29 March 2024.

More information Date(s) conducted, Pollster ...
Date(s)
conducted
Pollster Client Sample size Good/great Bad/awful Don't know Net approval
11–14 Aug 2023 LucidTalk Belfast Telegraph 2,950 24% 66% 10% −42%
21–24 Apr 2023 LucidTalk Belfast Telegraph 3,957 27% 65% 8% −38%
20–23 Jan 2023 LucidTalk Belfast Telegraph 1,449 25% 63% 12% −38%
4–7 Nov 2022 LucidTalk Belfast Telegraph 3,351 29% 65% 6% −36%
12–15 Aug 2022 LucidTalk Belfast Telegraph 3,384 27% 64% 9% −37%
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Naomi Long

The following polls asked about voters' opinions on Naomi Long, the leader of the Alliance Party since 26 October 2016.

More information Date(s) conducted, Pollster ...
Date(s)
conducted
Pollster Client Sample size Good/great Bad/awful Don't know Net approval
11–14 Aug 2023 LucidTalk Belfast Telegraph 2,950 38% 39% 23% −1%
21–24 Apr 2023 LucidTalk Belfast Telegraph 3,957 40% 38% 22% +2%
20–23 Jan 2023 LucidTalk Belfast Telegraph 1,449 37% 38% 25% −1%
4–7 Nov 2022 LucidTalk Belfast Telegraph 3,351 45% 37% 18% +8%
12–15 Aug 2022 LucidTalk Belfast Telegraph 3,384 46% 37% 17% +9%
Close

Doug Beattie

The following polls asked about voters' opinions on Doug Beattie, the leader of the Ulster Unionist Party (UUP) since 27 May 2021.

More information Date(s) conducted, Pollster ...
Date(s)
conducted
Pollster Client Sample size Good/great Bad/awful Don't know Net approval
11–14 Aug 2023 LucidTalk Belfast Telegraph 2,950 34% 38% 28% −4%
21–24 Apr 2023 LucidTalk Belfast Telegraph 3,957 38% 33% 29% +5%
20–23 Jan 2023 LucidTalk Belfast Telegraph 1,449 28% 42% 30% −14%
4–7 Nov 2022 LucidTalk Belfast Telegraph 3,351 37% 32% 31% +5%
12–15 Aug 2022 LucidTalk Belfast Telegraph 3,384 34% 34% 32% 0%
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Colum Eastwood

The following polls asked about voters' opinions on Colum Eastwood, the leader of the Social Democratic and Labour Party (SDLP) since 14 November 2015.

More information Date(s) conducted, Pollster ...
Date(s)
conducted
Pollster Client Sample size Good/great Bad/awful Don't know Net approval
11–14 Aug 2023 LucidTalk Belfast Telegraph 2,950 26% 43% 31% −17%
21–24 Apr 2023 LucidTalk Belfast Telegraph 3,957 32% 40% 28% −8%
20–23 Jan 2023 LucidTalk Belfast Telegraph 1,449 33% 38% 29% −5%
4–7 Nov 2022 LucidTalk Belfast Telegraph 3,351 31% 39% 30% −8%
12–15 Aug 2022 LucidTalk Belfast Telegraph 3,384 34% 39% 27% –5%
Close

Jim Allister

The following polls asked about voters' opinions on Jim Allister, the leader of Traditional Unionist Voice (TUV) since 7 December 2007.

More information Date(s) conducted, Pollster ...
Date(s)
conducted
Pollster Client Sample size Good/great Bad/awful Don't know Net approval
11–14 Aug 2023 LucidTalk Belfast Telegraph 2,950 23% 63% 14% −40%
21–24 Apr 2023 LucidTalk Belfast Telegraph 3,957 27% 61% 12% −34%
20–23 Jan 2023 LucidTalk Belfast Telegraph 1,449 27% 57% 16% −30%
4–7 Nov 2022 LucidTalk Belfast Telegraph 3,351 27% 59% 14% −32%
12–15 Aug 2022 LucidTalk Belfast Telegraph 3,384 31% 54% 15% −23%
Close

Leadership performance ratings

The following poll asked respondents to rate the performance of political leaders in the last few months, scoring from 0% to 100% for each leader.

NI political leaders

More information Date(s) conducted, Pollster ...
Date(s)
conducted
Pollster Client Sample size Gavin Robinson
DUP leader
Michelle O'Neill
Sinn Féin VP
- NI First Minister
Naomi Long
Alliance leader
Colum Eastwood
SDLP leader
Doug Beattie
UUP leader
Jim Allister
TUV leader
Emma Little-Pengelly
(DUP)
NI deputy First Minister
NI Executive
10–13 May 2024 LucidTalk Belfast Telegraph 3,316 46% 53% 46% 39% 44% 29% 52% 39%
Close

UK and Ireland political leaders

More information Date(s) conducted, Pollster ...
Date(s)
conducted
Pollster Client Sample Size Simon Harris
Taoiseach Ireland
Mary Lou McDonald
Sinn Féin President
Chris Heaton-Harris
NI Secretary of State
Rishi Sunak
UK Prime Minister
10–13 May 2024 LucidTalk Belfast Telegraph 3,316 36% 39% 20% 16%
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MPs not seeking re-election

More information MP, Consti­tuency ...
Close

Results

By affiliation

More information Affiliate, Seats ...
Affiliate[40] Seats Aggregate votes
Total Gains Losses Net +/- Of all (%) Total Of all (%) Difference
Sinn Féin 7 0 0 Steady 38.9 210,891 27.0 Increase4.2
DUP 5 0 3 Decrease3 27.8 172,058 22.1 Decrease8.5
SDLP 2 0 0 Steady 11.1 86,861 11.1 Decrease3.8
Alliance 1 1 1 Steady 5.6 117,191 15.0 Decrease1.8
UUP 1 1 0 Increase1 5.6 94,779 12.2 Increase0.5
TUV 1 New Increase1 5.6 48,685 6.2 New
Independent 1 1 0 Increase1 5.6 23,602[41] 3.1 Increase2.8
Green (NI) 0 0 0 Steady 0.0 8,692 1.1 Increase0.9
People Before Profit 0 0 0 Steady 0.0 8,438 1.1 Increase0.2
Aontú 0 0 0 Steady 0.0 7,466 1.0 Decrease0.2
Labour Alternative 0 Did not stand in 2019 0.0 624 0.1 N/a
NI Conservatives 0 0 0 Steady 0.0 553 0.1 Decrease0.6
Total 18 N/a Steady 100% 779,840 57.3 Decrease4.5
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By constituency

More information Constituency, 2019 seat ...
Constituency 2019
seat
2024 seat Votes [42] Turnout
Affiliate Candidate Votes Share Majority SF DUP APNI UUP SDLP TUV Ind. Other Total

Belfast East DUP DUPGavin Robinson 19,894 46.6% 2,676 N/a 19,894 17,218 1,818 619 1,918 162 1,077 42,706 58.6%
Belfast North SF SFJohn Finucane 17,674 43.7% 5,612 17,674 12,062 4,274 N/a 1,413 2,877 N/a 2,152 40,452 54.5%
Belfast South and Mid Down SDLP SDLPClaire Hanna 21,345 49.1% 12,506 N/a 6,859 8,839 2,653 21,345 2,218 N/a 1,577 43,491 58.0%
Belfast West SF SFPaul Maskey 21,009 52.9% 15,961 21,009 4,304 1,077 461 4,318 2,010 161 6,403 39,743 53.0%
East Antrim DUP DUPSammy Wilson 11,462 28.9% 1,306 2,986 11,462 10,156 9,476 892 4,135 N/a 568 39,675 54.1%
East Londonderry DUP DUPGregory Campbell 11,506 27.9% 179 11,327 11,506 3,734 3,412 5,260 4,363 N/a 1,675 41,277 55.0%
Fermanagh and South Tyrone SF SFPat Cullen 24,844 48.6% 4,571 24,844 N/a 2,420 20,273 2,386 N/a N/a 1,153 51,076 65.6%
Foyle SDLP SDLPColum Eastwood 15,647 40.8% 4,166 11,481 3,915 1,268 1,422 15,647 N/a 1,519 3,106 38,358 52.0%
Lagan Valley DUP APNISorcha Eastwood 18,618 37.9% 2,959 N/a 15,659 18,618 11,157 1,028 2,186 N/a 433 49,081 59.7%
Mid Ulster SF SFCathal Mallaghan 24,085 53.0% 14,923 24,085 9,162 2,001 2,269 3,722 2,978 181 1,047 45,445 61.4%
Newry and Armagh SF SFDáire Hughes 22,299 48.5% 15,493 22,299 5,900 2,692 3,175 6,806 4,099 N/a 971 45,942 59.1%
North Antrim DUP TUVJim Allister 11,642 28.3% 450 7,714 11,192 4,488 3,901 1,661 11,642 136 451 41,185 55.0%
North Down APNI Ind.Alex Easton 20,913 48.3% 7,305 N/a N/a 13,608 6,754 657 N/a 20,913 1,364 43,296 59.0%
South Antrim DUP UUPRobin Swann 16,311 38.0% 7,512 8,034 8,799 4,574 16,311 1,589 2,693 N/a 908 42,908 56.0%
South Down SF SFChris Hazzard 19,698 43.5% 9,280 19,698 7,349 3,187 1,411 10,418 1,893 N/a 1,287 45,243 59.0%
Strangford DUP DUPJim Shannon 15,559 40.0% 5,131 2,793 15,559 10,428 3,941 1,783 3,143 413 849 38,909 52.2%
Upper Bann DUP DUPCarla Lockhart 21,642 45.7% 7,406 14,236 21,642 6,322 3,662 1,496 N/a N/a N/a 47,358 58.0%
West Tyrone SF SFÓrfhlaith Begley 22,711 52.0% 15,917 22,711 6,794 2,287 2,683 5,821 2,530 N/a 869 43,692 59.0%
All constituencies 210,891172,058117,19194,77986,86148,68523,48525,890 779,840 57.1%
27.1%22.1%15.0%12.2%11.1%6.3%3.0%3.3% 100.0%
Seats
75112110 18
39%28%5.6%5.6%11%5.6%5.6%0.0% 100.0%
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Seats by affiliate share

Seats
Sinn Féin
38.9%
DUP
27.8%
SDLP
11.1%
Alliance
5.6%
UUP
5.6%
TUV
5.6%
Independent unionists
5.6%

Analysis

Sinn Féin became the largest Northern Ireland party in the House of Commons for the first time, following similar success in the 2022 Assembly election and 2023 local election. Sinn Féin defended their seven seats with an increased majority in each, South Down, Belfast North and especially Fermanagh and South Tyrone are less marginal than they were in 2019. Sinn Féin also came very close to gaining East Londonderry, Kathleen McGurk was the runner-up just 179 votes behind the DUP. Sinn Féin also narrowed the SDLP's majority in Foyle.

The DUP won five seats, three less than in 2019, this was the lowest number of DUP MPs since 2001 and since the DUP became the largest unionist party. The DUP lost Lagan Valley to Alliance, South Antrim to the UUP and North Antrim to the TUV. The loss of North Antrim by just 450 votes is particularly notable, the DUP had held this seat for its entire existence, and between them Ian Paisley and Ian Paisley Jr had represented this constituency for 54 years since 1970. The majorities of Sammy Wilson in East Antrim and especially Gregory Campbell in East Londonderry, were significantly reduced, both were narrowly held against challenges from Alliance by 1,306 votes and Sinn Féin by 179 votes respectively. A more positive result for the DUP was the re-election of new leader Gavin Robinson in Belfast East with a slightly increased majority, the DUP also held Strangford and Upper Bann.

The SDLP held their two seats. In Foyle SDLP leader Colum Eastwood's majority was reduced from 17,110 to 4,166, mainly due to lower turnout although there was a swing to Sinn Féin. Claire Hanna was also re-elected to the new Belfast South and Mid Down constituency with a slightly reduced majority of 12,506, this is now the fifth safest seat in Northern Ireland after Sinn Féin's four safest seats. Outside of these two constituencies the SDLP vote mainly decreased, with Belfast West a notable exception. The SDLP was the runner-up in South Down and Newry and Armagh, both were previously SDLP held seats but are increasingly safe for Sinn Féin.

Alliance remains the third largest party in Northern Ireland in terms of vote share, as it was in the 2022 Assembly election and 2023 local election. Alliance gained Lagan Valley from the DUP, with Sorcha Eastwood becoming the third directly elected Alliance MP. Alliance also lost North Down, with independent unionist Alex Easton gaining from Alliance deputy leader Stephen Farry, the party leader Naomi Long also lost in Belfast East, Long was the previous MP for Belfast East from 2010 to 2015. Alliance came a particularly close second in East Antrim, and was also runner-up in Strangford and in Belfast South and Mid Down for the first time since 1987. In other constituencies the Alliance vote was generally down slightly from their peak in 2019, but higher than any previous elections.

The UUP gained a seat in the House of Commons for the first time since 2015, with the election of Robin Swann in South Antrim, Swann achieved the highest majority in South Antrim since 1997 (7,512). The UUP was runner-up in one other constituency, Fermanagh and South Tyrone, which the party had last won in 2015, although Diana Armstrong was the sole unionist candidate the increase in the Sinn Féin vote ensured the seat remained a Sinn Féin hold. As with Alliance, the UUP's second best prospect in this election was East Antrim, fewer than 2,000 votes separated the top three candidates.

The TUV gained a seat in the House of Commons for the first time, with Jim Allister gaining North Antrim from the DUP by 450 votes. Beyond North Antrim the TUV's strongest constituencies were East Londonderry, East Antrim and Strangford. The other MP elected in Northern Ireland was independent unionist Alex Easton in North Down who gained the seat from Alliance, Easton left the DUP in 2021 and he is the fourth North Down MP to have been elected either as an independent or with a smaller unionist party after leaving the DUP or UUP.

Notes

  1. "Party leader in the North" and vice president of Sinn Féin. Mary Lou McDonald is the party president and leader of the opposition in the Dáil of the Republic of Ireland.
  2. As "Party leader in the North"
  3. She previously represented the area at Westminster from 2010-2015.
  4. He was MLA for North Antrim prior to the election.
  5. The question asked was "If there were a general election tomorrow, which political party do you think you would be most likely to support?".[32]
  6. Suspended in March 2024.

See also

References

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