2024 United Kingdom general election in Wales

Candidates in bold won their respective constituency election. Bold meant the candidate was elected.

The dates for these opinion polls range from the 2019 general election on 12 December to the present day.

Poll results

This section is transcluded from Sub-national opinion polling for the 2024 United Kingdom general election. (edit | history)

More information Dates conducted, Pollster ...

Dates conducted	Pollster	Client	Sample size	Lab	Con	PC	LD	Ref	Grn	Others	Lead
4 Jul 2024	2024 general election[20]		–	37.0%	18.2%	14.8%	6.5%	16.9%	4.7%	1.9%	18.8
27 Jun – 1 Jul 2024	YouGov	Barn Cymru	1,072	40%	16%	14%	7%	16%	5%	2%	24
24–28 Jun 2024	More in Common	N/A	848	42%	22%	9%	4%	14%	5%	4%	20
19–20 Jun 2024	Redfield & Wilton	N/A	930	46%	15%	10%	7%	17%	4%	1%	29
14–18 Jun 2024	Savanta	N/A	1,026	49%	19%	12%	5%	12%	3%	-	30
5–7 Jun 2024	Redfield & Wilton	N/A	960	45%	18%	11%	5%	18%	4%	0%	27
30 May – 3 Jun 2024	YouGov	Barn Cymru	1,066	45%	18%	12%	5%	13%	4%	1%	27
22–27 May 2024	More in Common	N/A	805	45%	21%	13%	4%	12%	3%	1%	24
22 May 2024	Rishi Sunak announces that a general election will be held on 4 July 2024
18–19 May 2024	Redfield & Wilton	N/A	900	43%	19%	14%	3%	15%	6%	1%	24
22–23 Apr 2024	Redfield & Wilton	N/A	840	40%	18%	14%	6%	18%	4%	0%	22
23–24 Mar 2024	Redfield & Wilton	N/A	878	49%	16%	10%	5%	15%	5%	1%	33
20 Mar 2024	Vaughan Gething becomes First Minister of Wales[21]
18 Feb 2024	Redfield & Wilton	N/A	874	45%	22%	10%	5%	13%	5%	1%	23
24–26 Jan 2024	Redfield & Wilton	N/A	1,100	48%	20%	10%	4%	12%	4%	1%	28
10–11 Dec 2023	Redfield & Wilton	N/A	1,086	47%	22%	11%	6%	10%	2%	0%	25
4–7 Dec 2023	YouGov	Barn Cymru	1,004	42%	20%	15%	7%	12%	3%	1%	22
12–13 Nov 2023	Redfield & Wilton	N/A	1,100	44%	24%	13%	4%	9%	5%	1%	20
14–15 Oct 2023	Redfield & Wilton	N/A	959	46%	26%	10%	3%	10%	4%	0%	20
16–17 Sep 2023	Redfield & Wilton	N/A	1,172	44%	22%	10%	9%	7%	6%	1%	22
1–6 Sep 2023	YouGov	Barn Cymru	1,051	50%	19%	12%	5%	8%	5%	2%	31
13–14 Aug 2023	Redfield & Wilton	N/A	1,068	41%	24%	13%	7%	11%	4%	0%	17
14–16 Jul 2023	Redfield & Wilton	N/A	1,050	46%	24%	10%	7%	10%	3%	1%	22
17–18 Jun 2023	Redfield & Wilton	N/A	1,000	43%	22%	10%	7%	12%	4%	1%	21
16 Jun 2023	Rhun ap Iorwerth becomes leader of Plaid Cymru[22]
12–17 May 2023	YouGov	Barn Cymru	1,064	49%	19%	10%	8%	9%	4%	1%	30
14–15 May 2023	Redfield & Wilton	N/A	1,058	43%	23%	11%	8%	9%	4%	1%	20
15–17 Apr 2023	Redfield & Wilton	N/A	1,251	44%	24%	12%	7%	9%	4%	0%	20
17–23 Feb 2023	YouGov	WalesOnline	1,083	53%	19%	12%	4%	8%	3%	1%	34
3–7 Feb 2023	YouGov	Barn Cymru	1,081	49%	20%	14%	5%	9%	3%	1%	29
25 Nov – 1 Dec 2022	YouGov	Barn Cymru	1,042	51%	18%	13%	4%	8%	4%	2%	33
30 Sep – 4 Oct 2022	Survation	38 Degrees	6,012	51%	24%	13%	6%	–	–	6%	27
20–22 Sep 2022	YouGov	Barn Cymru	1,014	46%	23%	15%	5%	5%	3%	3%	23
12–16 Jun 2022	YouGov	Barn Cymru	1,020	41%	26%	16%	7%	4%	4%	2%	15
5 May 2022	Local elections held in Wales[23]
25 Feb – 1 Mar 2022	YouGov	Barn Cymru	1,086	41%	26%	13%	7%	6%	4%	3%	15
13–16 Dec 2021	YouGov	Barn Cymru	1,009	41%	26%	13%	3%	7%	6%	3%	15
27 Sep – 1 Oct 2021	YouGov	?	?	39%	29%	17%	3%	5%	–	7%	10
13–16 Sep 2021	YouGov	ITV Cymru Wales/Cardiff University	1,071	37%	31%	15%	4%	6%	5%	2%	6
6 May 2021	Election to the Senedd[24]
2–4 May 2021	YouGov	ITV Cymru Wales/Cardiff University	1,071	37%	36%	14%	3%	4%	3%	3%	1
18–21 Apr 2021	YouGov	ITV Cymru Wales/Cardiff University	1,142	37%	33%	18%	2%	3%	4%	3%	4
9–19 Apr 2021	Opinium	Sky News	2,005	42%	33%	14%	3%	–	3%	5% UKIP on 3% Other on 2%	9
16–19 Mar 2021	YouGov	ITV Cymru Wales/Cardiff University	1,174	35%	35%	17%	4%	2%	3%	3%	Tie
24 Jan 2021	Andrew RT Davies becomes leader of the Welsh Conservatives[25]
11–14 Jan 2021	YouGov	ITV Cymru Wales/Cardiff University	1,018	36%	33%	17%	3%	5%	4%	2%	3
26–30 Oct 2020	YouGov	ITV Cymru Wales/Cardiff University	1,013	43%	32%	13%	3%	5%	3%	2%	11
28 Aug – 4 Sep 2020	YouGov	ITV Cymru Wales/Cardiff University	1,110	41%	33%	15%	2%	4%	3%	2%	8
29 May – 1 Jun 2020	YouGov	ITV Cymru Wales/Cardiff University	1,021	39%	35%	15%	5%	2%	3%	1%	4
3–7 Apr 2020	YouGov	ITV Cymru Wales/Cardiff University	1,008	34%	46%	11%	4%	3%	2%	0%	12
20–26 Jan 2020	YouGov	ITV Cymru Wales/Cardiff University	1,037	36%	41%	13%	5%	3%	2%	1%	5
12 Dec 2019	2019 general election		–	40.9%	36.1%	9.9%	6.0%	5.4%	1.0%	0.7%	4.8

Close

The Labour Party remained the largest party in Wales, winning 27 of the 32 seats. In addition to defending all of their seats in the south including around Cardiff and Swansea, Labour reversed many of the Conservative gains in 2019, gaining seats such as Bangor Aberconwy, Clwyd East, Clwyd North, Monmouthshire and Wrexham. Labour also won in Montgomeryshire and Glyndŵr, which covers Montgomeryshire, the only area in Wales which had, until 2024, never elected a Labour MP.^[26] Of the Labour MPs elected, 2 of them are also members of the Co-operative Party. They are designated as Labour-Co-op, but generally just counted in Labour's total.

Plaid Cymru won four seats, the same as in 2019, however given boundary changes and the reduction in seats this should be counted as two gains. Plaid Cymru defended Dwyfor Meirionnydd and Ceredigion Preseli with significant majorities, gaining the new seat of Caerfyrddin which had been nominally Conservative in 2019, and gained Ynys Môn from the Conservatives. This was the first time Plaid Cymru had won in Ynys Môn since 2001; it was the most marginal seat in Wales with a majority of 637 votes between Plaid and Conservatives, with Labour in close third place. By the share of the vote (14.8 per cent), Plaid Cymru achieved their best ever result in UK general election.^[27]

The Liberal Democrats gained one seat in Wales, Brecon, Radnor and Cwm Tawe. Outside of briefly holding the predecessor seat following the 2019 Brecon and Radnorshire by-election, the Liberal Democrats have not had a seat in Wales since losing Ceredigion in 2017.^[28]

The Conservative Party lost every seat in Wales, having won fourteen seats in 2019, the first time since 2001 that Wales had no Conservative MPs. This was despite the Conservatives taking 18.2% of the overall vote and outpolling both Plaid Cymru and the Liberal Democrats in terms of votes.^[29]

Reform UK was the third largest party in terms of votes with 16.9%, nearly as many votes as the Conservatives and more than both Plaid Cymru and the Liberal Democrats; it was also a higher vote share than in England.^[30] Reform was the runner-up in thirteen constituencies, coming closest to winning in Llanelli.^[31] The Green Party was runner-up in one constituency, Cardiff South and Penarth.^[32]

• 2024 United Kingdom general election in England
• 2024 United Kingdom general election in Northern Ireland
• 2024 United Kingdom general election in Scotland
• 2026 Senedd election
• List of MPs for constituencies in Wales (2024–present)
• List of marginal seats before the 2024 United Kingdom general election