2024 United States Senate election in Maryland

Campaign

In the early months of 2023, Cardin's low fundraising and cash-on-hand numbers led to speculation that he would retire.^[17][18] Several potential candidates, including Angela Alsobrooks and David Trone, began hiring campaign advisers in anticipation of Cardin's possible retirement,^[19] which he announced on May 1, 2023, ending a political career that spanned over 50 years.^[20]

The following day, at-large Montgomery County Councilmember Will Jawando announced that he would run for Senate.^[21] He was joined by Trone^[22] and Alsobrooks^[23] later in the week. Upon Trone's entry into the race, the Democratic primary quickly developed into a contest between money and endorsements,^[24] with Alsobrooks receiving major endorsements from the Maryland Democratic establishment^[25][26] and Trone self-financing his campaign with $61 million in personal loans,^[27] which he said protects him from political influence and would allow the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee to focus its resources on more competitive races.^[28][29] Trone suggested that he could spend as much as $50 million on the race.^[30] Despite Trone's ad blitz, independent polling portrayed him as only the slight favorite in the Democratic primary.^[31][32]

During the Democratic primary, Jawando and Trone sought to present themselves as progressives and political outsiders, pointing to their careers and political records,^[33][34] despite Trone's record in Congress being more aligned with its moderate members.^[35] Alsobrooks, meanwhile, emphasized "kitchen-table" issues such as community safety and health care in her campaign while also focusing on her political career.^[36][37] Candidates campaigned heavily in the Baltimore metropolitan area, which was seen as a key battleground in the Democratic primary^[38][39] as Trone and Alsobrooks were expected to dominate in their respective home counties of Montgomery and Prince George's County, which are of similar sizes and were considered likely to cancel each other out in the primary results.^[40] This was not the case, as Alsobrooks not only bested Trone in Montgomery County, but also in most of Maryland's other urban counties.^[41]

Alsobrooks and Trone, who were viewed by media outlets as the frontrunners,^[42][43] faced controversies that had the potential to damage their campaigns: Alsobrooks' record as a prosecutor was scrutinized by progressive-media outlet The Intercept,^[44] while Trone faced criticism for his campaign contributions toward Republican politicians through Total Wine & More^[45][46] and for political gaffes made during the campaign,^[47][48][49] including his accidental use of a racial slur during a congressional hearing.^[50] On the campaign trail, Alsobrooks criticized Trone for these contributions and for spending heavily in the race, while Trone characterized Alsobrooks as a "career politician" with an insufficient record on reproductive rights, criticized her for not including any Latinos in her cabinet,^[51] and suggested she would be influenced by the corporations that had donated to her campaign.^[52] Alsobrooks and some of her supporters, including Maryland treasurer Dereck E. Davis and Prince George's County councilmember Jolene Ivey, expressed concerns that Trone's comments toward Alsobrooks and her supporters could make coalescing around Trone difficult if he becomes the Democratic nominee; Trone supporters, including state delegate Joseline Peña-Melnyk, dismissed these concerns. Peña-Melnyk said that Democrats should "focus on the issues" going into the election and not "make that mistake again" as happened with Larry Hogan's victory in 2014.^[53][54] In interviews with WTOP-FM before the primary election, both candidates said that they will support the Democratic nominee in the general election.^[55][56]

Jawando dropped out of the race on October 20, 2023, and later endorsed Alsobrooks,^[57] leaving a contest between Alsobrooks and Trone in the Democratic primary.^[58][10] Alsobrooks was seen as the early frontrunner of the Democratic primary, but momentum quickly built up behind Trone's campaign as he self-funded his campaign and its nonstop media blitz, which increased his name recognition and approval ratings in polling and overwhelmed the Alsobrooks campaign's resources.^[59] The Democratic primary has been compared to the primary in Maryland's 2016 U.S. Senate election, in which Chris Van Hollen defeated Donna Edwards.^[29] Upon former governor Larry Hogan's entry into the race, the Democratic primary largely transformed into a contest to determine which candidate had the best chance of defeating him, with candidates shifting from talking about their experience and leadership styles to talking about national issues—such as abortion, the U.S. Supreme Court, and Donald Trump—and criticizing Hogan's legislative record as governor.^[60]

Alsobrooks trailed Trone in public opinion polls for most of the Democratic primary, but enjoyed a surge of support in the final weeks of the election as voters tuned in, more senior Democratic figures voiced their support for her and while Trone's campaign suffered from various gaffes he had made on the campaign trail.^[61][62] She defeated Trone in the Democratic primary election on May 14, 2024,^[63] with her support largely coming from the state's highly-populated and urban counties, especially in her home base of Prince George's County, while majority votes for Trone came from Maryland's rural areas and Frederick County.^[64]

Candidates

Endorsements

Debates and forums

A straw poll was held during the Maryland Democratic Party's forum on the Eastern Shore, which was won by Alsobrooks, who received 125 votes to Trone's 98 votes and Dominguez's 15 votes.^[157]

A televised debate between Alsobrooks and Trone hosted by WBAL-TV and WRC-TV was set to be held on April 23, 2024, but was cancelled after Trone refused to commit to the debate.^[158] Both campaigns agreed to attend a different televised debate hosted by WBFF and WJLA-TV a few days later, which was held on April 19.^[159][160] A second televised debate was held by WDCW on April 29, 2024, which was attended by Alsobrooks while Trone declined to attend.^[161]

Fundraising

Polling

Results

Results by county

Results by precinct

Campaign

Several Republican candidates entered the race, with the most notable being former Maryland governor Larry Hogan.^[187] Retired U.S. Air Force brigadier general John Teichert was long viewed as the frontrunner^[188] until Hogan's surprise entry into the race hours before the candidate filing deadline,^[12][189] which prompted Teichert to withdraw from the race on February 16 and endorse Hogan, leaving him with only token opposition remaining in the primary.^[190] This was two years after Hogan declined to run for U.S. Senate against Chris Van Hollen, and it was presumed that a 2024 presidential bid would be more likely for the former governor.^[191]

The Republican primary results had the potential to show the rift within the Maryland Republican Party, whose base had grown frustrated with Hogan for opposing former President Donald Trump.^[192][193] Robin Ficker, a perennial candidate and disbarred attorney, positioned himself as a protest candidate against Hogan by aligning himself with Trump, but opinion polls showed Hogan with a substantial lead over Ficker.^[194]

Hogan would end up easily defeating Ficker in the Republican primary on May 14, 2024, becoming the Republican nominee for the seat.^[195] Hogan's support came largely from the state's highly-populated and urban counties, which tend to vote for Democratic candidates, while Ficker's support came from its rural areas.^[64]

Candidates

Endorsements

Debates and forums

Fundraising

Polling

Results

Results by county

Results by precinct

Candidates

Debates and forums

Osuchukwu attended the NARFE Maryland Federation forum on October 24, 2023.^[162]

Campaign

The issue of abortion was a major issue in the general election, with Maryland voters set to vote on enshrining reproductive rights into the state constitution alongside the Senate election.^[212] Anticipating this, Hogan sought to move to the left of his party by supporting federal legislation to restore the Roe v. Wade decision and the Maryland abortion referendum, though declining to support the Women's Health Protection Act.^[213] Alsobrooks promised to cosponsor the Women's Health Protection Act^[214] and criticized Hogan for his veto of the Abortion Care Access Act in 2022, which expanded the kinds of medical professionals that could perform abortions and provided $3.5 million in state funding to train these professionals.^[215][216]

Alsobrooks scrutinized Hogan's legislative record—including his vetoes on legislation to require background checks on firearm sales, increase the minimum wage, provide paid family and medical leave, and expand abortion care—and sought to associate him with generic Republicans.^{[217][218][219]} Democrats also attempted to nationalize the race by reminding voters that a Hogan win could cause Republicans to take control of the U.S. Senate, thereby allowing them to block Kamala Harris's agenda and pass Donald Trump's policies.^[220] Maryland Governor Wes Moore also played a role in campaigning against Hogan,^[221][222] with several of his top advisors leaving their positions in the Moore administration to form a political action committee called Unity First PAC to support Alsobrooks and other downballot Democratic nominees.^{[223][224][225]} Following Joe Biden's withdrawal from the 2024 presidential election, Alsobrooks sought to tie herself closely with Democratic presidential nominee Kamala Harris, believing that her candidacy would have a coattail effect on downballot elections.^{[226][227][228]}

Hogan campaigned on the issues of immigration, crime, and public safety in the general election while also relying on his popularity with Maryland voters to win over support from moderate Democrats and unaffiliated voters.^[229][64] He also sought to bring attention to his achievements while governor, including his efforts to cut taxes and his handling of the 2015 Baltimore protests and the COVID-19 pandemic in Maryland.^[229] Hogan criticized Alsobrooks's record on fiscal issues and her handling of crime and policing in Prince George's County, saying that crime had increased during her tenure as county executive and highlighting the county's May 2024 Moody's Ratings outlook downgrade from stable to negative as a result of the statewide Blueprint for Maryland's Future implementation.^[230]

Hogan's candidacy had the potential to transform the general election into a test of his popularity, among both Democrats, who outnumber registered Republicans 2-to-1 and were key to Hogan's successes in past elections;^[231] and Republicans, who may opt against voting in the general election as a result of Hogan's criticism of Trump.^[232] Mileah Kromer, a political scientist and pollster at the University of Maryland, Baltimore County, estimated that 25–30% of registered Democrats voted for Hogan in past gubernatorial elections; polling conducted for the Senate election in late September 2024 showed Hogan receiving support from 14 percent of registered Democrats.^[233]

In May 2024, Hogan posted on X (formerly Twitter) to say that Americans should "respect the verdict and the legal process," in reference to any decision made in the Donald Trump hush money trial.^[234] Later that day, a jury found Trump guilty on all charges.^[235] This caused Hogan backlash among some pro-Trump Republicans, most notably including senior Trump campaign advisor Chris LaCivita, who replied to Hogan's post saying that Hogan's campaign had "ended";^[234] as well as Lara Trump, the co-chair of the Republican National Committee (RNC) and daughter-in-law to the former president. Lara Trump said in an interview that "[Hogan] doesn't deserve the respect of anyone in the Republican Party at this point, and quite frankly, anybody in America." She (and later RNC chairman Michael Whatley)^[236] also declined to say whether or not the RNC would withhold monetary support from Hogan's campaign;^[237] withholding support from Hogan's campaign would have significant implications for the general election, as the Maryland Republican Party is not as well-resourced as the Maryland Democratic Party.^[238] Ultimately, in mid-June 2024, former President Donald Trump endorsed Hogan's senatorial campaign, which may help Hogan among Republicans but may also hurt his performance among Democratic voters.^[239] Though Hogan publicly rejected Trump's endorsement, it was reported by CNN in October 2024 that Hogan was privately touting the endorsement to donors, believing it would help unify Republicans around his campaign.^[240]

Both candidates received extensive support from super PACs. Political action committees supporting Alsobrooks included Women Vote PAC and the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee, both of which ran ads criticizing Hogan's record as governor—especially toward the issue of abortion—and emphasizing that a Hogan victory could cause Republicans to take control of the U.S. Senate. Political action committees supporting Hogan, including the National Republican Senatorial Committee and Maryland's Future PAC—which received significant financial support from Republican megadonors Kenneth C. Griffin and Harlan Crow—ran ads criticizing Alsobrooks for improperly benefiting from tax breaks she did not qualify for (which she since pledged to pay back) and claiming that she would support raising Social Security taxes.^[241] Libertarian nominee Mike Scott also received support from the newly-established Save Western Culture super PAC, which campaigned against Hogan for his handling of the COVID-19 pandemic and recognizing Biden's victory in the 2020 United States presidential election.^[242]

Predictions

Post-primary endorsements

Debates and forums

There was some initial uncertainty around when a debate would be held between Alsobrooks and Hogan in the general election.^[357] On August 20, the Alsobrooks and Hogan campaigns agreed to a single debate—hosted by MPT and local NBC affiliates, and moderated by Chuck Todd—which was held on October 10, 2024.^[358]

Fundraising

Polling

Aggregate polls

Results

By county

More information County, Alsobrooks ...

County	Alsobrooks		Hogan		Others		Margin		Total Votes
	#	%	#	%	#	%	#	%
Allegany	7,396	23.55%	21,811	69.44%	2,204	7.02%	−14,415	−45.89%	31,411
Anne Arundel	137,645	44.35%	164,698	53.06%	8,044	2.59%	−27,053	−8.72%	310,387
Baltimore	212,585	51.71%	188,177	45.77%	10,361	2.52%	24,408	5.94%	411,123
Baltimore City	183,929	79.96%	42,088	18.30%	4,020	1.75%	141,841	61.66%	230,037
Calvert	18,359	34.15%	33,580	62.47%	1,816	3.38%	−15,221	−28.32%	53,755
Caroline	3,790	23.50%	11,534	71.51%	805	4.99%	−7,744	−48.01%	16,129
Carroll	26,180	25.67%	72,049	70.64%	3,762	3.69%	−45,869	−44.97%	101,991
Cecil	13,392	25.82%	35,557	68.55%	2,923	5.64%	−22,165	−42.73%	51,872
Charles	57,893	63.07%	31,941	34.80%	1,956	2.14%	25,952	28.27%	91,790
Dorchester	5,837	35.08%	10,113	60.78%	689	4.14%	−4,276	−25.70%	16,639
Frederick	66,280	42.83%	83,767	54.12%	4,722	3.05%	−17,487	−11.30%	154,769
Garrett	2,423	15.63%	11,966	77.19%	1,113	7.18%	−9,543	−61.56%	15,502
Harford	48,108	32.25%	95,455	63.99%	5,616	3.76%	−47,347	−31.74%	149,179
Howard	103,163	56.75%	75,247	41.39%	3,382	1.86%	27,916	15.36%	181,792
Kent	4,340	39.26%	6,375	57.67%	340	3.08%	−2,035	−18.41%	11,055
Montgomery	340,280	65.84%	169,303	32.76%	7,264	1.41%	170,977	33.08%	516,847
Prince George's	333,021	82.70%	64,550	16.03%	5,112	1.27%	268,471	66.67%	402,683
Queen Anne's	8,204	25.48%	22,842	70.95%	1,150	3.57%	−14,638	−45.47%	32,196
St. Mary's	18,426	31.52%	37,471	64.10%	2,560	4.38%	−19,045	−32.58%	58,457
Somerset	3,368	33.84%	5,953	59.82%	631	6.34%	−2,585	−25.97%	9,952
Talbot	8,778	38.54%	13,393	58.80%	608	2.67%	−4,615	−20.26%	22,779
Washington	21,488	29.85%	46,870	65.10%	3,635	5.05%	−25,382	−35.26%	71,993
Wicomico	17,163	36.93%	27,244	58.61%	2,073	4.46%	−10,081	−21.68%	46,480
Worcester	8,864	27.22%	22,358	68.67%	1,338	4.11%	−13,494	−41.44%	32,560
Total	1,650,912	54.64%	1,294,344	42.84%	76,122	2.52%	356,568	11.80%	3,021,378

Close

Counties that flipped from Democratic to Republican

• Anne Arundel (largest municipality: Glen Burnie)
• Dorchester (largest municipality: Cambridge)
• Frederick (largest municipality: Frederick)
• Kent (largest municipality: Chestertown)
• Talbot (largest municipality: Easton)
• Wicomico (largest municipality: Salisbury)

Swing by county

Legend

•   Democratic — +>15%
•   Democratic — +12.5–15%
•   Democratic — +7.5–10%
•   Democratic — +5-7.5%
•   Democratic — +2.5–5%
•   Democratic — +0-2.5%
•   Republican — +0-2.5%
•   Republican — +2.5–5%
•   Republican — +5-7.5%
•   Republican — +7.5–10%
•   Republican — +10-12.5%
•   Republican — +12.5–15%
•   Republican — +>15%

Trend by county

County flips

Legend

• Democratic   Hold

  Republican   Hold   Flip