2026 Arizona gubernatorial election
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The 2026 Arizona gubernatorial election will be held on November 3, 2026, to elect the governor of Arizona. Incumbent Democratic governor Katie Hobbs is running for re-election to a second term. Primary elections will take place on July 21, 2026.[1]
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November 3, 2026
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Following the passage of Proposition 131 in the 2022 elections, this will be the first gubernatorial election in Arizona in which candidates will be required to nominate a running mate for the newly established position of lieutenant governor.[2] This will be one of five Democratic-held governorships up for election in 2026 in a state that Donald Trump won in the 2024 presidential election.
Background
Arizona is considered to be a purple state at both the federal and statewide level. After Joe Biden carried the state narrowly in the 2020 presidential election,[3] Donald Trump carried the state of Arizona by 5.5 points in the 2024 presidential election.[4] Democrats control both U.S. Senate seats in Arizona[5][6] and hold the governorship and secretary of state office.[7][8] Meanwhile, Republicans maintain a majority in the Arizona Senate and Arizona House of Representatives,[9] and control 6 of the 9 House of Representatives seats in the state.[10] Democrats have characterized this race as key to establishing a Democratic trifecta in Arizona for the first time in 60 years.[11]
Democratic primary
Candidates
Presumptive nominee
- Katie Hobbs, incumbent governor (2023–present)[12]
Declined
- Adrian Fontes, secretary of state of Arizona (2023–present) (running for re-election)[13]
- Kris Mayes, attorney general of Arizona (2023–present) (running for re-election)[14]
Endorsements
Katie Hobbs
- U.S. representatives
- Yassamin Ansari, AZ-03 (2025–present)[15]
- Greg Stanton, AZ-04 (2023–present), AZ-09 (2019–2023)[15]
- Labor unions
- International Association of Machinists and Aerospace Workers Arizona State Council[16]
- Organizations
Republican primary
Candidates
Declared
- Andy Biggs, U.S. representative from Arizona's 5th congressional district (2017–present)[23]
- Ken Miceli, business owner[24]
- Scott Neely, concrete pumping contractor, candidate for governor in 2022, and candidate for mayor of Mesa in 2024[25]
- David Schweikert, U.S. representative from Arizona's 1st congressional district (2011–present)[26]
Withdrawn
- Karrin Taylor Robson, former member of the Arizona Board of Regents (2017–2021) and candidate for governor in 2022[27][28]
Declined
- Juan Ciscomani, U.S. representative from Arizona's 6th congressional district (2023–present) (running for re-election)[29]
- Jake Hoffman, state senator from the 15th district (2023–present) and 2020 fake elector for Donald Trump[30] (endorsed Biggs)[25]
- Kari Lake, senior advisor to the U.S. Agency for Global Media (2025–present), nominee for governor in 2022, and nominee for U.S. Senate in 2024[31]
- Kimberly Yee, state treasurer of Arizona (2019–present) and candidate for governor in 2022 (running for superintendent of public instruction)[32]
Endorsements
Andy Biggs
- Executive branch officials
- Donald Trump, president of the United States (2017–2021, 2025–present) (co-endorsement with Taylor Robson)[33]
- U.S. senators
- U.S. representatives
- Lauren Boebert, CO-04 (2021–present)[35]
- Eli Crane, AZ-02 (2023–present)[35]
- Paul Gosar, AZ-09 (2011–present)[35]
- Burgess Owens, UT-04 (2021–present)[34]
- Tom Emmer, House Majority Whip from MN-06 (2015–present)[36]
- Matt Gaetz, former FL-01 (2017–2024)[37]
- Debbie Lesko, former AZ-08 (2018–2025) and member of the Maricopa County Board of Supervisors from the 4th district (2025–present)[38]
- State legislators
- Jake Hoffman, state senator from the 15th district (2023–present)[25]
- Rachel Keshel, state representative from the 17th district (2023–present)[39]
- Individuals
- Charlie Kirk, CEO of Turning Point USA (deceased)[40]
- Erika Kirk, CEO of Turning Point USA[41]
- Organizations
Karrin Taylor Robson (withdrawn)
- Executive branch officials
- Donald Trump, president of the United States (2017–2021, 2025–present) (co-endorsement with Biggs)[33]
- Sarah Huckabee Sanders, governor of Arkansas (2023–present) and former White House Press Secretary (2017–2019)[46]
- U.S. senators
- Pete Ricketts, Nebraska (2023–present)[47]
- U.S. representatives
- Newt Gingrich, former speaker of the United States House of Representatives (1995–1999) from GA-06 (1979–1999)[48]
- State legislators
- Janae Shamp, majority leader of the Arizona Senate (2025–present) from the 29th district (2023–present)[49]
- Tim Dunn, state senator from the 25th district (2025–present) (co-endorsement with Taylor Robson)[50]
- Michael Carbone, majority leader of the Arizona House of Representatives (2025–present) from the 25th district (2023–present)[48]
- Walter Blackman, state representative from the 7th district (2025–present)[50]
- Selina Bliss, state representative from the 1st district (2023–present)[50]
- David Livingston, state representative from the 28th district (2023–present)[50]
- Justin Wilmeth, state representative from the 2nd district (2023–present) and 15th district (2021–2023)[50]
- Teresa Martinez, state representative from the 16th district (2021–present)[48]
- Individuals
- Rob Schneider, actor[48]
- Organizations
Polling
Aggregate polls
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[b] |
Margin of error |
Andy Biggs |
Karrin Taylor Robson |
David Schweikert |
Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stealth Analytics[53] | May 13–15, 2026 | 1,100 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 55% | – | 9% | 2% | 34% |
| Noble Predictive Insights[54] | May 5–7, 2026 | 375 (RV) | ± 5.0% | 48% | – | 18% | – | 34% |
| NextGen P (R)[55] | April 13–16, 2026 | 1,255 (LV) | ± 2.7% | 52% | – | 10% | 3%[c] | 35% |
| Noble Predictive Insights[56] | February 23–26, 2026 | 384 (RV) | ± 5.0% | 40% | – | 19% | – | 41% |
| Taylor Robson suspends her campaign. | ||||||||
| Center for Excellence in Polling[57] | January 22–24, 2026 | – (LV) | – | 28% | 19% | 12% | – | 41% |
| Emerson College[58] | November 8–10, 2025 | 381 (RV) | ± 5.0% | 50% | 17% | 8% | 1%[d] | 24% |
| GrayHouse (R)[59] | October 26–28, 2025 | 397 (LV) | ± 3.6% | 43% | 19% | 2% | – | 36% |
| Pulse Decision Science (R)[60] | September 8–10, 2025 | 502 (LV) | ± 4.4% | 48% | 26% | 11% | – | 15% |
| 55% | 31% | – | – | 14% | ||||
| 61% | – | 23% | – | 16% | ||||
| Kreate Strategies (R)[61] | August 19–21, 2025 | 679 (RV) | – | 65% | 14% | – | – | 21% |
| Noble Predictive Insights[62] | August 11–18, 2025 | 385 (RV) | ± 5.0% | 27% | 37% | – | – | 36% |
| NextGen P (R)[63] | June 17–18, 2025 | 1,380 (LV) | ± 2.6% | 49% | 26% | – | 8% | 17% |
| Kreate Strategies (R)[64][A] | May 23–25, 2025 | 1,147 (LV) | ± 2.9% | 57% | 25% | – | – | 18% |
| Pulse Decision Science (R)[65][B] | April 6–9, 2025 | 511 (LV) | ± 4.4% | 45% | 16% | – | – | 39% |
| NicoPAC (R)[66] | April 2–6, 2025 | 477 (RV) | ± 4.5% | 66% | 15% | – | 4% | 15% |
| NicoPAC (R)[67] | January 24–26, 2025 | 512 (RV) | ± 4.3% | 71% | 14% | – | – | 15% |
Hypothetical polling
- Andy Biggs vs. Charlie Kirk vs. Jack McCain vs. Jake Hoffman vs. Karrin Taylor Robson vs. Kimberly Yee
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[b] |
Margin of error |
Andy Biggs |
Jake Hoffman |
Charlie Kirk |
Jack McCain |
Karrin Taylor Robson |
Kimberly Yee |
Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Noble Predictive Insights[68] | May 12–16, 2025 | 426 (RV) | ± 4.8% | 17% | – | 17% | – | 24% | 6% | – | 37% |
| Noble Predictive Insights[69] | February 11–13, 2025 | 374 (RV) | ± 5.1% | 14% | 1% | 14% | 8% | 11% | 5% | – | 47% |
| NicoPAC (R)[67] | January 24–26, 2025 | 512 (RV) | ± 4.3% | 59% | – | – | – | 9% | 11% | 3%[e] | 19% |
| Data Orbital[70][C] | January 18–20, 2025 | 500 (LV) | ± 4.5% | 32% | – | – | – | 12% | 7% | 4%[f] | 45% |
- Andy Biggs vs. Kimberly Yee
- Karrin Taylor Robson vs. Kimberly Yee
Libertarian primary
Green primary
No Labels primary
General election
Predictions
| Source | Ranking | As of |
|---|---|---|
| The Cook Political Report[78] | Tossup | March 11, 2026 |
| Inside Elections[79] | Tossup | January 16, 2026 |
| Sabato's Crystal Ball[80] | Lean D | March 19, 2026 |
| Race to the WH[81] | Lean D | April 29, 2026 |
| RealClearPolitics[82] | Tossup | May 24, 2026 |
Polling
Katie Hobbs vs. Andy Biggs
Aggregate polls
| Source of poll aggregation |
Dates administered |
Dates updated |
Katie Hobbs (D) |
Andy Biggs (R) |
Other/ |
Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Race to the WH[83] | through May 7, 2026 | May 16, 2026 | 44.5% | 37.5% | 18.0% | Hobbs +7.0% |
| RealClearPolitics[84] | November 8, 2025 – May 7, 2026 | May 16, 2026 | 44.3% | 39.3% | 16.4% | Hobbs +5.0% |
| Average | 44.4% | 38.4% | 17.2% | Hobbs +6.0% | ||
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[b] |
Margin of error |
Katie Hobbs (D) |
Andy Biggs (R) |
Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Noble Predictive Insights[54] | May 5–7, 2026 | 996 (RV) | ± 3.1% | 41% | 37% | 6%[i] | 16% |
| TIPP Insights (R)[85][D] | April 20–24, 2026 | 1,159 (LV) | ± 3.2% | 48% | 38% | 2%[j] | 12% |
| 1,501 (RV) | ± 2.8% | 45% | 35% | 2%[j] | 18% | ||
| Noble Predictive Insights[56] | February 23–26, 2026 | 1,023 (RV) | ± 3.1% | 42% | 37% | 5%[k] | 16% |
| Center for Excellence in Polling[57] | January 22–24, 2026 | 519 (LV) | ± 4.3% | 50% | 41% | – | 9% |
| NextGen P (R)[86] | December 15–17, 2025 | 2,725 (LV) | ± 1.9% | 51% | 32% | 7% | 9% |
| Emerson College[58] | November 8–10, 2025 | 850 (RV) | ± 3.3% | 44% | 43% | – | 13% |
| Noble Predictive Insights[62] | August 11–18, 2025 | 948 (RV) | ± 3.2% | 39% | 37% | 4%[l] | 20% |
| Noble Predictive Insights[68] | May 12–16, 2025 | 1,026 (RV) | ± 3.1% | 40% | 38% | 5%[m] | 17% |
| Pulse Decision Science (R)[65][B] | April 6–9, 2025 | 501 (LV) | ± 4.4% | 46% | 42% | – | 12% |
| Noble Predictive Insights[69] | February 11–13, 2025 | 1,006 (RV) | ± 3.1% | 40% | 38% | 5% | 17% |
| Kreate Strategies (R)[87][E] | February 5–7, 2025 | 924 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 43% | 44% | – | 13% |
Katie Hobbs vs. David Schweikert
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[b] |
Margin of error |
Katie Hobbs (D) |
David Schweikert (R) |
Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Noble Predictive Insights[54] | May 5–7, 2026 | 996 (RV) | ± 3.1% | 42% | 35% | 7%[n] | 16% |
| Noble Predictive Insights[56] | February 23–26, 2026 | 1,023 (RV) | ± 3.1% | 44% | 35% | 5%[k] | 16% |
| Center for Excellence in Polling[57] | January 22–24, 2026 | 519 (LV) | ± 4.3% | 51% | 38% | – | 11% |
| Emerson College[58] | November 8–10, 2025 | 850 (RV) | ± 3.3% | 44% | 39% | – | 17% |
Hypothetical polling
Katie Hobbs vs. Karrin Taylor Robson
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[b] |
Margin of error |
Katie Hobbs (D) |
Karrin Taylor Robson (R) |
Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Center for Excellence in Polling[57] | January 22–24, 2026 | 519 (LV) | ± 4.3% | 50% | 40% | – | 10% |
| NextGen P (R)[86] | December 15–17, 2025 | 2,725 (LV) | ± 1.9% | 51% | 30% | 9% | 10% |
| Emerson College[58] | November 8–10, 2025 | 850 (RV) | ± 3.3% | 43% | 42% | – | 15% |
| Noble Predictive Insights[62] | August 11–18, 2025 | 948 (RV) | ± 3.2% | 40% | 38% | 4%[l] | 18% |
| Noble Predictive Insights[68] | May 12–16, 2025 | 1,026 (RV) | ± 3.1% | 41% | 39% | 3%[o] | 17% |
| Pulse Decision Science (R)[65][B] | April 6–9, 2025 | 501 (LV) | ± 4.4% | 47% | 38% | – | 15% |
| Noble Predictive Insights[69] | February 11–13, 2025 | 1,006 (RV) | ± 3.1% | 43% | 35% | 4% | 18% |
| Kreate Strategies (R)[87][E] | February 5–7, 2025 | 924 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 40% | 38% | – | 22% |
Katie Hobbs vs. Charlie Kirk
Katie Hobbs vs. Jake Hoffman
Katie Hobbs vs. Jack McCain
Katie Hobbs vs. Kimberly Yee
Katie Hobbs vs. generic Republican
Katie Hobbs vs. someone else
See also
Notes
- Calculated by taking the difference of 100% and all other candidates combined.
- Key:
A – all adults
RV – registered voters
LV – likely voters
V – unclear - Scott Neely with 2%; Ken Miceli with 1%
- "Someone else" with 1%
- Tom Hatten with 2%; Scott Neely with 1%
- "Refused" with 4%
- Calculated by taking the difference of 100% and all other candidates combined.
- Hugh Lytle (I) with 5%; "A third-party candidate not listed" with 1%
- "Someone else" with 2%
- "Third-Party" with 5%
- "Third party candidate" with 4%
- "A third party candidate" with 5%
- Hugh Lytle (I) with 6%; "A third-party candidate not listed" with 1%
- "A third party candidate" with 3%
Partisan clients
- Poll sponsored by American Commitment
- Poll sponsored by Club for Growth
- Poll sponsored by AZ Free News
- Poll sponsored by League of American Workers
- Poll sponsored by American Encore, which supports the Republican Party.