2026 Farrer by-election
Australian parliamentary by-election
From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
A by-election is scheduled to be held on 9 May 2026 to elect the Australian member of Parliament (MP) for the New South Wales division of Farrer. The election follows the resignation of former opposition leader and Liberal MP Sussan Ley.[1][2]
 | |||||||||||||||||||||||
9 May 2026
| |||||||||||||||||||||||
Division of Farrer (NSW) in the House of Representatives | |||||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| |||||||||||||||||||||||
 The division of Farrer in New South Wales | |||||||||||||||||||||||
| |||||||||||||||||||||||
It will be the first by-election since the 2025 federal election, the first during Angus Taylor's leadership of the Liberals, the first during Matt Canavan's leadership of the Nationals, and the fifth during Anthony Albanese's tenure as prime minister.
Key dates
- By-election announced — 5 March 2026
- Postal vote applications open — 5 March 2026
- Issue of writ — 1 April 2026
- Close of roll — 8 April 2026
- Close of nominations — 13 April 2026
- Declaration of nominations — 14 April 2026
- Early voting begins — 28 April 2026
- Postal vote applications close — 6 May 2026
- Polling day — 9 May 2026
- Return of writ — on or before 10 July 2026[3]
Background
Resignation
A leadership spill of the Liberal party room was held on 13 February 2026, where Sussan Ley was defeated by Angus Taylor 34 votes to 17 for the leadership of the party.[4] Following the defeat, Ley fronted a press conference where she announced that she would resign from parliament "in the next couple of weeks".[5]
On 27 February 2026, Ley officially submitted her resignation.[6] On 5 March 2026, the Speaker of the House, Milton Dick, announced the by-election would be held on 9 May 2026.[7]
Seat details
Farrer is a rural electorate located in the far southwestern area of New South Wales and includes the towns of Albury, Corowa, Narrandera, Leeton, Griffith, Deniliquin, Hay, Balranald and Wentworth. A traditionally conservative seat, the seat has historically been a safe Liberal seat since Ley first won it in 2001, though the Liberal Party suffered a 10% swing against it on the two-candidate preferred vote against an independent candidate in 2025, and won the seat on a reduced margin of 56.19% to 43.81%.[8]
| Election | 1990 | 1993 | 1996 | 1998 | 2001 | 2004 | 2007 | 2010 | 2013 | 2016 | 2019 | 2022 | 2025 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Labor | 32.21% | 32.57% | 28.77% | 35.38% | N/a | 30.18% | 38.83% | 35.49% | 32.57% | 29.47% | 30.17% | 33.65% | 37.11% | |
| Liberal | N/a | N/a | N/a | N/a | 50.14% | 69.82% | 61.17% | 64.51% | 67.43% | 70.53% | 69.83% | 66.35% | 62.89% | |
| National | 67.79% | 67.43% | 71.23% | 64.62% | 49.86% | N/a | N/a | N/a | N/a | N/a | N/a | N/a | N/a | |
| Government | ALP | ALP | L/NP | L/NP | L/NP | L/NP | ALP | ALP | L/NP | L/NP | L/NP | ALP | ALP | |
2025 election results
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | ±% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Liberal | Sussan Ley | 44,743 | 43.41 | −8.85 | |
| Independent | Michelle Milthorpe | 20,567 | 19.96 | +19.96 | |
| Labor | Glen Hyde | 15,551 | 15.09 | −3.90 | |
| One Nation | Emma Hicks | 6,803 | 6.60 | +0.27 | |
| Greens | Richard Hendrie | 5,085 | 4.93 | −4.18 | |
| Shooters, Fishers, Farmers | Peter Sinclair | 3,577 | 3.47 | −1.84 | |
| Trumpet of Patriots | Tanya Hargraves | 2,441 | 2.37 | +2.37 | |
| Family First | Rebecca Scriven | 2,218 | 2.15 | +2.15 | |
| People First | David O'Reilly | 2,078 | 2.02 | +2.02 | |
| Total formal votes | 103,063 | 90.97 | −1.44 | ||
| Informal votes | 10,234 | 9.03 | +1.44 | ||
| Turnout | 113,297 | 91.55 | +2.11 | ||
| Notional two-party-preferred count | |||||
| Liberal | Sussan Ley | 64,812 | 62.89 | −3.46 | |
| Labor | Glen Hyde | 38,251 | 37.11 | +3.46 | |
| Two-candidate-preferred result | |||||
| Liberal | Sussan Ley | 57,916 | 56.19 | −10.16 | |
| Independent | Michelle Milthorpe | 45,147 | 43.81 | +43.81 | |
| Liberal hold | |||||
Candidates
Media have characterised the by-election as a four-way race between the Liberals, Nationals, One Nation and independent candidate Michelle Milthorpe.[10][11][12] Candidates are listed in ballot order.
| Party | Candidate | Background | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Liberal | Raissa Butkowski | Lawyer and City of Albury councillor[13] | |
| Independent | Michelle Milthorpe | Teacher, business owner and second-placing candidate for Farrer in 2025[14][15] | |
| People First | Jamie Bonnefin | Architect and small business owner[16] | |
| National | Brad Robertson | Australian Army veteran and former commander, Albury branch chair[17][18] | |
| Legalise Cannabis | Aimee Lee Pearson | Albury-based pharmacist[19] | |
| Greens | Richard August Hendrie | Mental health worker and fifth-placing candidate for Farrer in 2025[20] | |
| Independent | Roger Woodward | Seventh-placing candidate for Berowra in 2025[21] | |
| One Nation | David Farley | Former CEO of AACo and irrigation specialist[22] | |
| Family First | Rebecca Scriven | Works at a Christian school and eighth-placing candidate for Farrer in 2025[23] | |
| Sustainable Australia | Lucas James Ellis | Works in the planning sector[24] | |
| Independent | Gary Jean Pappin | Murray River councillor and retired farmer[25] | |
| Shooters, Fishers and Farmers | Peter Sinclair | Egg packer and sixth-placing candidate for Farrer in 2025[26] | |
Liberal
On 23 February, The Australian reported that "the right faction of the Liberal Party has gained control of candidate preselection in a bid to stem the leakage of votes to One Nation". State Liberal MP Justin Clancy publicly expressed interest in running as the Liberal candidate; shortly after taking office as leader of the Liberal Party Angus Taylor called Clancy to discuss the by-election.[27] On 27 February, Justin Clancy ruled out contesting Farrer. Nominations for Liberal preselection in Farrer closed on 2 March.[28] Media reported former Sussan Ley staffer Lachlan McIntyre, and Albury councillor and lawyer Raissa Butkowski as candidates.[29] The Liberal Party held their preselection vote on 15 March.[30]
On 15 March, the Liberal Party preselected lawyer for the Hume Riverina Community Legal Service and City of Albury councillor Raissa Butkowski to contest the by-election. Butkowski is also a member of the Murray-Darling Association, an organisation that advocates for local government and water issues.[31]
National
The National Party will contest Farrer for the first time since losing the seat in 2001, since Coalition rules in New South Wales forbid parties from running a candidate in a sitting Coalition MP's seat.[32] Media reported former Nationals senator Perin Davey, Albury mayor Kevin Mack, the party's branch chairman Brad Robertson and Murray Irrigation Ltd director Gabrielle Coupland as potential candidates.[27][18] Marty Corboy, the Nationals candidate for neighbouring Indi in 2016, endorsed Perin Davey.[33] The Nationals selected Robertson as their candidate on 8 March.[17] Robertson is an Australian Army veteran and former commander.[17]
One Nation
On 13 February, party leader Pauline Hanson announced that One Nation will contest the by-election.[34] On 27 February, One Nation announced that David Farley, Leigh Wolki and Guy Cooper were the three candidates seeking pre-selection, following a process that assessed 80 candidates.[35] On 7 March, David Farley won preselection as the One Nation candidate.[22] Hanson said it was the first time a branch had selected its own candidate.[36]
Farley is a Narrandera-based agricultural businessman. He was formerly the CEO of Australian Agricultural Company.[36] He was recently elected chair of the lobby group Speak Up 4 Water. He became a member of One Nation before Sussan Ley resigned.[18]
Independent (Milthorpe)
Michelle Milthorpe was an independent candidate in the 2025 election and was supported by the community group Voices of Farrer and the Climate 200 fundraising organisation.[37] On 13 February, she announced her intention to contest the by-election.[14] She is also supported by Alasdair Macleod, who is married to Rupert Murdoch's daughter Prudence. His agribusiness Macdoch invests in regenerative agriculture and other methods which mitigate the effects of climate change.[38]
Milthorpe is a teacher from Jindera and an advocate for child abuse victims.[15]
Other candidates
Family First will run Rebecca Scriven, an independent Christian school worker who ran for the party in 2025.[23]
The Greens will contest the by-election.[39] They will run Richard Hendrie, a mental health worker who ran for the party in 2025.[20]
On 14 February, Gerard Rennick announced that People First will contest the by-election.[40] The party endorsed Jamie Bonnefin, an architect and the president of its NSW division.[41]
The Sustainable Australia Party is contesting Farrer for the first time since 2019.[24]
Gary Pappin will run as an independent.[25]
Legalise Cannabis candidate Aimee Pearson, Shooters, Fishers and Farmers candidate Peter Sinclair and independent Roger Woodward were announced as candidates at the declaration of nominations.[42]
Not contesting
The governing Australian Labor Party opted not to field a candidate in the by-election. Initially, Prime Minister Anthony Albanese said the party would decide whether to contest the by-election "once Sussan Ley actually resigns,"[43] however on 13 March 2026 the party's national executive met and decided against running a candidate. Speaking on condition of anonymity, a member of the executive reportedly said "we don’t want to create a disturbance or dilute the Coalition’s anti-One Nation vote."[44]
Helen Dalton, independent state MP for the electoral district of Murray, was viewed as a potential challenger for the seat, with Dalton claiming that her mobile phone had "been burning up" since Ley's resignation.[45] Dalton was also approached to run for the seat as a One Nation candidate.[46] On 5 March, Dalton confirmed that she would not be a candidate.[47]
Darren De Bortoli, the managing director of De Bortoli Wines, said he was approached to run by multiple parties but declined all offers.[48]
Jordi Queiruga planned to run as an independent, but decided not to contest the seat.[49]
Campaign
The campaign is primarily focused on local issues specific to the Farrer region, especially water management in the Murray-Darling basin, regional healthcare and cost of living.[50][51][52]
The media resurfaced comments made by One Nation candidate David Farley in 2012 where he likened then–Prime Minister Julia Gillard to a "non-productive old cow". Farley and Pauline Hanson described the comments as tongue-in-cheek.[53] Farley also provoked controversy and criticism for describing the crime in Griffith, a city in Farrer, as "hectic"[54] and for sharing suggestive content on social media from OnlyFans creators, which he defended as accidental.[55]
The Coalition launched attack advertisements against opponents David Farley and Michelle Milthorpe. They criticised One Nation for having "no solutions",[56] and further criticised Farley for running for preselection to be a Labor candidate in 2022 and for having donated to them.[57] They also released advertisements dubbing Milthorpe a "teal".[58]
Progressive lobby group GetUp! had raised $400,000 for its anti–One Nation campaign by 22 April, and intended to spend at least $600,000 attacking the party by the close of polling.[59]
Charles Sturt University organised a debate for 30 April, moderated by political journalist Barrie Cassidy. Nine of the 12 candidates were in attendance.[60]
Opinion polling
| Date | Firm | Sample size |
Margin of error |
Primary vote | 2CP vote | |||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LIB | NAT | Milthorpe (IND) |
ALP | ONP | GRN | OTH | UND | LIB | Milthorpe (IND) |
ONP | ||||
| 9–10 Apr 2026 | uComms[61][a] | 1,116 | ≈±3% | 16.1% | 7.1% | 30.0% | N/a | 30.9% | 3.8% | 4.2% | 7.9% | N/a | 47.3% | 52.7% |
| 11 Mar 2026 | Matt Canavan becomes Nationals leader | |||||||||||||
| 5–6 Mar 2026 | uComms[62][b] | 1,281 | ±2.73% | 19.1% | 5.2% | 23.3% | 9.0% | 28.7% | 3.9% | 2.2% | 8.6% | N/a | N/a | N/a |
| 27 Feb 2026 | Sussan Ley resigns as an MP | |||||||||||||
| 3 May 2025 | 2025 federal election | 43.4% | — | 20.0% | 15.1% | 6.6% | 4.9% | 10.0% | — | 56.2% | 43.8% | — | ||
Endorsements
Michelle Milthorpe
Michelle Milthorpe was endorsed by David Pocock, independent senator for the Australian Capital Territory, and Helen Haines, independent MP for the neighbouring electorate of Indi, at a campaign event in Albury on 6 March.[63]
Katter's Australian MP Bob Katter also endorsed Milthorpe at the Albury Gold Cup, emphasising the importance of an independent crossbench holding the balance of power. He recognised "soft" support for One Nation, attributing it to a protest vote against the major parties, though also acknowledged Pauline Hanson's "excellent work in opposing migration".[64]
Cathy McGowan, who was an independent MP representing Indi from 2013 until her retirement in 2019, endorsed Milthorpe at a launch party.[65]
How-to-vote cards
Political parties recommend to voters how they should preference candidates through "how-to-vote cards" distributed by campaign volunteers near polling places. Parties often make agreements between themselves about these recommendations. Preferences are expected to play a key role in the by-election.[66]
The Liberals will recommend preferences be directed to the Nationals second, and the Nationals will recommend preferences be directed to the Liberals second. On 5 March, Liberal frontbencher Andrew Bragg publicly urged his party to preference One Nation last,[67] however the Liberals ultimately preferenced One Nation fourth.[68]
Michelle Milthorpe will not ask voters to direct preferences, just as she did not at the last election.[27]
Family First has said it will not give its second preferences to One Nation because of Farley's view of women.[69]
Legalise Cannabis is running an open ticket, with no directions for further preferences beyond a number "1" for their candidate.[70]
| Candidate | How-to-vote card (read column top down) | ||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LIB | Mil. | PFP | NAT | LCA | GRN | Woo. | ONP | FFP | SAP | Pap. | SFF | ||
| Raissa Butkowski (LIB)[68] | 1 | N/a | 7 | 2 | N/a | 7 | N/a | 3 | 3 | N/a | 7 | 10 | |
| Michelle Milthorpe (IND)[27] | 9 | 1 | 11 | 8 | N/a | 3 | N/a | 11 | 11 | N/a | 5 | 11 | |
| Jamie Bonnefin (PFP)[71] | 10 | N/a | 1 | 5 | N/a | 11 | N/a | 5 | 5 | N/a | 9 | 6 | |
| Brad Robertson (NAT)[72] | 2 | N/a | 4 | 1 | N/a | 6 | N/a | 2 | 2 | N/a | 6 | 3 | |
| Aimee Lee Pearson (LCA)[70] | 11 | N/a | 10 | 9 | 1 | 4 | N/a | 8 | 10 | N/a | 4 | 4 | |
| Richard August Hendrie (GRN)[73] | 12 | N/a | 12 | 12 | N/a | 1 | N/a | 12 | 12 | N/a | 2 | 12 | |
| Roger Woodward (IND)[74] | 3 | N/a | 8 | 10 | N/a | 9 | 1 | 9 | 7 | N/a | 12 | 9 | |
| David Farley (ONP)[75] | 4 | N/a | 4 | 5 | N/a | 12 | N/a | 1 | 4 | N/a | 10 | 2 | |
| Rebecca Scriven (FFP)[76] | 5 | N/a | 3 | 3 | N/a | 10 | N/a | 6 | 1 | N/a | 8 | 5 | |
| Lucas James Ellis (SAP)[77] | 6 | N/a | 5 | 11 | N/a | 5 | N/a | 7 | 9 | 1 | 3 | 7 | |
| Gary Jean Pappin (IND)[78] | 7 | N/a | 9 | 7 | N/a | 2 | N/a | 10 | 8 | N/a | 1 | 8 | |
| Peter Sinclair (SFF)[79] | 8 | N/a | 2 | 6 | N/a | 8 | N/a | 4 | 5 | N/a | 11 | 1 | |
Results
Candidates are listed in ballot order.
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | ±% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Liberal | Raissa Butkowski | ||||
| Independent | Michelle Milthorpe | ||||
| People First | Jamie Bonnefin | ||||
| National | Brad Robertson | ||||
| Legalise Cannabis | Aimee Lee Pearson | ||||
| Greens | Richard August Hendrie | ||||
| Independent | Roger Woodward | ||||
| One Nation | David Farley | ||||
| Family First | Rebecca Scriven | ||||
| Sustainable Australia | Lucas James Ellis | ||||
| Independent | Gary Jean Pappin | ||||
| Shooters, Fishers, Farmers | Peter Sinclair | ||||
| Total formal votes | |||||
| Informal votes | |||||
| Turnout | |||||
| Registered electors | 124,447 | ||||
See also
Notes
- Commissioned by Michelle Milthorpe.
- Commissioned by The Australia Institute.