2026 Nepean state by-election

The district of Nepean, formerly known as Dromana, covers the southernmost end of the Mornington Peninsula from Safety Beach to Portsea. Usually considered a safe Liberal seat, Nepean was won by Labor for only the second time in its history^[a] at the 2018 Victorian state election, when Chris Brayne was elected.^[1][2] As of the 2021 census, the electorate of Nepean was older, less ethnically diverse, and poorer than the state average.^[3] Following a boundary redistribution, Nepean had a notional margin of 0.7 percent for Labor.^[2] Liberal candidate Sam Groth defeated Brayne at the 2022 Victorian state election, with a swing of 7.1 percent towards the Liberal Party.^[1] Groth was a former professional tennis player and subsequently a sports commentator, and had lived in Rye for a number of years prior to the 2022 election.^[2] The Liberals performed strongly in wealthier communities, receiving over two-thirds of the two-party-preferred vote in the Portsea and Sorrento polling booths, while Labor performed better in the towns of Dromana, Rosebud, and McCrae, which are less well-off.^[4]

At the 2025 federal election, the Liberal-held Division of Flinders had a competitive performance from independent Ben Smith, who polled 47.7 per cent of the two-candidate-preferred vote. Smith carried most booths in the western portion of Flinders, which overlaps with the state Nepean district.^[4][5]

Groth announced on 5 January 2026 that he not would seek re-election at the upcoming 2026 Victorian state election, citing "public pressure placed on my family", some of which he stated had come from within the Liberal Party.^[6] Groth had previously sued The Herald and Weekly Times for defamation, over the newspapers' distribution of the allegation that he had started a relationship with his wife before she had reached the age of consent.^[6] The Herald Sun apologised for these claims in late 2025, and lawyers for both Groth and his wife have stated the allegation is false.^[6] On 4 February, the office of Victorian Liberal Party leader Jess Wilson confirmed that Groth intended to resign imminently from the Victorian Parliament, triggering a by-election in the electoral district of Nepean.^[7] Groth resigned from parliament on 13 February 2026.^[8][9]

The by-election is in close proximity to the Victorian state election, which will be held in November 2026.^[10] It is also preceded by the 2026 South Australian state election, held six weeks prior, at which One Nation polled 23 per cent of the statewide primary vote. Alongside the Farrer by-election, to be held a week later, the Nepean by-election is considered a test for One Nation's broader electoral prospects across Australia, and specifically in advance of the Victorian state election.^[5][11]

Sam Groth resigned from Parliament on 13 February 2026, with the writ issued by the Speaker on 13 March.^[8][9] The timeline for the by-election is as follows:^[9]

• Friday 13 March − Speaker issues writ
• Monday 16 March − Candidate nominations open
• Friday 20 March, 8pm − Electoral roll closes
• Thursday 9 April, 12pm − Candidate nominations close for registered party candidates
• Friday 10 April, 12pm − Candidate nominations close for independent candidates
• Wednesday 22 April − Early voting begins
• Saturday 2 May − Election day
• Friday 8 May − Last day for votes to be admitted to count
• On or before Saturday 23 May − Return of the writ

On 21 April, the day before early voting began, a low-sensory voting space was open from 10am to 4pm, to provide a low-stimuli environment for neurodivergent voters.^[12]

Candidates in the Nepean by-election. From left-to-right, then top-to-bottom: Anthony Marsh (Liberal), Darren Hercus (One Nation), Sianan Healy (Greens), and Tracee Hutchison (Independent).

Candidates are listed below in ballot paper order:^[13]

According to both The Guardian, The Age, and Mornington Peninsula News Group, five candidates nominated for Liberal Party preselection. These were Anthony Marsh, David Burgess, Briony Camp, Nathan Conroy, and Bree Ambry.^[21][22][20] Marsh, the mayor of Mornington Peninsula Shire, was given special permission by the Liberal Party state executive to stand as a candidate, as he had only joined the party on 10 February 2026.^[21] Both Burgess, Camp, and Conroy had previously unsuccessfully stood for the Liberal Party in general elections — Burgess for the Legislative Council, Camp in the district of Hastings, and Conroy twice for the federal division of Dunkley.^[20] Ambry is a project manager with Nepean Health.^[20] The Liberal candidate for the by-election was decided by a combined vote of the eighteen members of the state executive and six members of the branch executive in Nepean, rather than by a vote of rank-and-file branch members.^[21] Marsh was ultimately the successful candidate, being preselected on 24 February 2026.^[17] According to Mornington Peninsula News Group, in the first round of preselection voting, Marsh received ten votes, Camp four, Conroy three, and Burgess two.^[17]

The Labor Party did not stand a candidate in the by-election.^[13][23]

Darren Hercus, who owns a fabrication company in Safety Beach, was announced as the One Nation candidate on 1 March.^[14][24] According to two former members of One Nation, Hercus was selected directly by Warren Pickering, the state president of One Nation.^[24] Hercus states that he was chosen by a vote of the membership.^[25]

Tracee Hutchison, a broadcaster and journalist from Rosebud, announced her candidacy for the by-election on 8 March as an independent.^[25][26] Hutchison is endorsed by the group Independents for Mornington Peninsula.^[16] Hutchison has opposed cuts by the Mornington Peninsula shire to programs relating to the arts, cultural heritage, and First Nations people, as well as the council's rescinding of a climate emergency declaration.^[26]

The Greens candidate for Nepean is Sianan Healy, a women's health researcher.^[16]

Peter Angelico, an entrepreneur and former Liberal Party member of two decades, is the endorsed Libertarian Party candidate for Nepean.^[20][27]

Reade Smith, a former councillor and mayor at Mornington Peninsula Shire, is the candidate for Affordable Housing Now – Sustainable Australia Party.^[13][15] Smith was a councillor from 2000 to 2012, and mayor in 2005.^[15]

End Mass Immigration - Reform AU is standing Milton Wilde, a Croydon-based former police officer.^[18][19] Wilde previously stood at the 2025 federal election for the Trumpet of Patriots party.^[19]

Renee Thompson is standing for the Legalise Cannabis party.^[13]

Liberal candidate Anthony Marsh and party leader Jess Wilson announced on 14 March that the party would spend $340 million on rebuilding the Rosebud Hospital if elected to government, reiterating a promise made by Sam Groth at the 2022 state election.^[28] Both One Nation and Hutchison have also expressed their support for a rebuild of the hospital, with One Nation supporting a public–private partnership to fund construction works.^[3]

Sianan Healy, the Greens candidate, launched her campaign for the by-election in Blairgowrie on 29 March.^[29]

Two sets of leaflets authorised by the Liberal Party were distributed in early April, the first arguing that One Nation was inexperienced and untested, and the second describing independent Tracee Hutchison as "Jacinta Allan's Secret Nepean Candidate", citing Hutchison's interest in standing for the Labor Party at the 2019 federal election, as well as her criticism of Australia Day and the Australian flag.^[30] Hercus, the One Nation candidate, described the leaflet directed at his party as an "act of desperation", while Hutchison stated the material directed against her was "lazy and dishonest".^[30]

The High Court of Australia's ruling in Hopper v Victoria, announced on 15 April, struck down a large portion of Victoria's laws governing political donations.^[31] While political leaders in the state, including premier Allan and shadow attorney-general James Newbury, immediately called for reforms to introduce regulations regarding political donations within the limits of the court's ruling, the Victorian Parliament does not sit until 5 May.^[32] As the Nepean by-election is scheduled for 2 May, laws governing donations, including public disclosures of donations, are unlikely to be in place until after voting concludes for the by-election.^[31][32]

The Age reported on 18 April that Hercus had been told by Pickering to use a personal bank account for accepting campaign donations. Hercus stated to the paper he did not use a personal account for political expenses and had no knowledge of how his donations were being managed. If Hercus had used a personal account to accept donations, it would have violated Victorian campaign expenditure laws in place prior to Hopper v Victoria.^[24][33] In a press conference on the same day, federal leader Pauline Hanson referred to the report as "false allegations".^[34] On 19 April, ABC News reported that Marsh was being investigated for unauthorised roadworks, following the release of a campaign video where he had filled a Dromana pothole with Wilson to highlight a lack of funding for road repairs.^[27]

An internal committee within One Nation that had been tasked with running the party's Nepean campaign had dissolved by late April, with three of its seven members leaving the party.^[33]

The sole candidates' debate for the by-election was held on 23 April. Hutchison, Healy, Angelico, and Smith attended. Both Hercus and Marsh had been slated to attend, but Hercus withdrew on 20 April, citing campaign commitments. Marsh chose not to attend as a result of Hercus' withdrawal.^[35]

The Liberal Party and One Nation both gave each other their third preferences on how-to-vote cards, preceded by the Libertarian Party at second.^[27][36][37]

The Libertarian Party preferenced One Nation second and Liberal third, with Hutchison last. End Mass Immigration - Reform AU did not register a how-to-vote card with the Victorian Electoral Commission.^[37]

Hutchison, Legalise Cannabis, and Sustainable Australia issued open how-to-vote cards with no preference recommendations. The Greens recommended a second preference for Hutchison and a fourth preference for the Liberal Party.^[36][37]

• 2026 Farrer by-election