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2026 Mecklenburg-Vorpommern state election

German state election From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

The 2026 Mecklenburg-Vorpommern state election is currently being held on 20 September 2026 to elect the 9th Landtag of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern. The 2026 Berlin state election takes place on the same day, two weeks after an AfD landslide win in the 2026 Saxony-Anhalt state election that potentially mobilises support for SPD.[2]

Quick facts Candidate, Party ...
2026 Mecklenburg-Vorpommern state election

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20 September 2026
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All 71 seats in the Landtag, (including any overhang and leveling seats)
36 seats needed for a majority
 
Candidate Manuela Schwesig Leif-Erik Holm[a] Daniel Peters
Party SPD AfD CDU
Last election 39.6%, 34 seats 16.7%, 14 seats 13.3%, 12 seats
Current seats 34 14[b] 12

 
Candidate Simone Oldenburg Claudia Müller Jakob Schirmer
Party Left Greens FDP
Last election 9.9%, 9 seats 6.3%, 5 seats 5.8%, 5 seats
Current seats 9 5[c] 3

Incumbent Government

Second Schwesig cabinet
SPD–Left



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Election date

Under the Constitution of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern, a state election must be held between 58 and 61 months after the start of the legislative period. The 8th Landtag of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern was constituted on 26 October 2021. As no early dissolution of the parliament occurred, the election date was set to 20 September 2026, within the permissible window of 30 August to 22 November 2026.[3]

Electoral system

The Landtag of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern comprises at least 71 seats, with 36 allocated in single-member constituencies via first-past-the-post voting and the rest through closed party lists. German citizens aged 16 or older who have resided in the state for at least 37 days are eligible to vote, while those aged 18 or older with at least three months of primary residence in Mecklenburg-Vorpommern can stand for election, unless barred by a final court ruling. Seats are distributed using the Hare/Niemeyer method.

Background

Erwin Sellering (SPD), who was Minister-President since 2008, resigned in 2017 due to ill health, proposing Federal Minister of Family Affairs Manuela Schwesig as successor. She resigned from the third Merkel cabinet and continued with the SPD-CDU coalition, and also had to undergo medical treatment in 2019-2020. After a landslide win in 2021, winning 34 of 36 constituencies which expanded the parliament size from 71 to 79 seats, the SPD was six seats short of a majority, which could have been provided by CDU again, or The Left, with the second place AfD being off limits due to being subject to Germany's firewall policy that rejects cooperation. Schwesig picked The Left, forming the Second Schwesig cabinet.

The September 2026 poll numbers would not allow Manuela Schwesig to renew her two-party coalition with the Left Party as together they would reach 44%, same as AfD and CDU combined. If the Greens clear 5% election threshold, she could try to stay in office as Minister-President at the head of a three-party alliance of SPD with the Left and the Greens.[4]

In Mecklenburg-Vorpommern, the SPD has been the largest political party since the 1998 Mecklenburg-Vorpommern state election. This was quite different in the 2024 European & 2025 Federal elections when the SPD of Chancellor Scholz was on the ballot and only won 10% & 12% in Mecklenburg-Vorpommern, with only about a quarter of the votes that AfD and CDU won combined.

The CDU, the party of Chancellor Merz, in 1990 had started at 38% in M-V, but dropped in 2021 to a national low of 13%, which since was lowered to 12% in the 2024 Brandenburg state election. In early September 2026, the CDU polled at 7% or 6%, in danger of losing representation due to the 5% election threshold. It is thus unlikely to enter a formal government coalition as it lacks strength for a two-party coalition with the SPD, and rejects direct cooperation with the Left. The FDP is very likely to lose representation in this state according to polls, while the BSW passed the 5% in Saxony-Anhalt despite polling 4%.

During the final weeks of the election, the 2026 Merz government crisis were ongoing.

Parties

The table below lists parties currently represented in the 7th Landtag of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern.

More information Name, Ideology ...
Name Ideology 2021 result Current
Votes (%) Seats
SPD Social Democratic Party of Germany
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands
Social democracy 39.6%
34 / 79
34 / 79
AfD Alternative for Germany
Alternative für Deutschland
Right-wing populism 16.7%
14 / 79
14 / 79
CDU Christian Democratic Union of Germany
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands
Christian democracy 13.3%
12 / 79
12 / 79
Linke The Left
Die Linke
Democratic socialism 9.9%
9 / 79
9 / 79
Grüne Alliance 90/The Greens
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen
Green politics 6.3%
5 / 79
5 / 79
FDP Free Democratic Party
Freie Demokratische Partei
Classical liberalism 5.8%
5 / 79
3 / 79
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The following minor parties submitted a state list of candidates to the returning officer and were approved to appear on the ballot:[5]

Campaign

Various election posters in Schwerin

Debate invitation controversies

In June, the leaders of the four largest parties, both in parliament and in polls, – Schwesig (SPD), Holm (AfD), Peters (CDU) and Oldenburg (Left) – were invited to a TV debate in September, organized by RTL in cooperation with ntv and the private radio station Ostseewelle to take place shortly before the election. While Greens and FDP are represented in the parliament, polls suggest they might (Greens) or will (FDP) fail to clear the 5% election threshold. On 11 August, Peters (CDU) and Oldenburg (Left), from parties polling around 10%, were controversially disinvited by RTL, leaving the debate as a head-to-head duel between Schwesig and Holm, leaders of parties that poll around 30+%. This led to anger from both the CDU and the Left.[6] The Schwesig-Holm TV debate on 9 September was called aggressive.[7][8]

Opinion polls

Graphical summary

Local regression of polls conducted for 2026 Mecklenburg-Vorpommern state election.

Party polling

More information Polling firm, Fieldwork date ...
Polling firm Fieldwork date Sample
size
SPD AfD CDU Linke Grüne FDP BSW Others Lead
2026 state election 20 Sep 2026 –
Forschungsgruppe Wahlen 14–17 Sep 2026 1,395 37 36 6 9 5 – 4 3 1
INSA 8–15 Sep 2026 1,000 35 37 7 10 5 – 3 3 2
Forschungsgruppe Wahlen 7–10 Sep 2026 1,053 34 37 7 10 5 – 4 3 3
pollytix 8–9 Sep 2026 1,252 30 36 6 12 6 2 5 3 6
Infratest dimap 7–9 Sep 2026 1,565 33 38 7 9 5 – 4 4 5
INSA 1–8 Sep 2026 1,000 33 36 7 11 5 – 4 4 3
Infratest dimap 26–31 Aug 2026 1,215 32 35 8 11 5 – 4 5 3
Forsa 21–27 Aug 2026 1,047 28 37 10 11 5 – 4 5 9
INSA 4–11 Aug 2026 1,000 29 36 10 11 5 3 4 2 7
Infratest dimap 2–6 Jul 2026 1,167 29 36 9 12 5 – 4 5 7
INSA 11–18 Jun 2026 1,000 28 35 10 11 4 3 6 3 7
Infratest dimap 7–11 May 2026 1,153 27 36 10 13 4 – 5 5 9
INSA 6–16 Mar 2026 1,000 26 34 12 10 5 3 5 5 8
Forsa 9–16 Feb 2026 1,003 23 37 13 11 4 2 5 5 14
Forsa 9–16 Feb 2026 1,003 23 37 13 11 4 2 5 5 14
Infratest dimap 21–24 Jan 2026 1,145 25 35 13 12 4 – 6 5 10
Infratest dimap 18–23 Sep 2025 1,151 19 38 13 12 5 – 7 6 19
INSA 8–15 Apr 2025 1,000 21 29 17 15 5 – 6 7 8
Federal election 23 Feb 2025 – 12.4 35.0 16.0 12.0 5.4 3.2 10.6 3.6 19
Forsa 28 Jan–3 Feb 2025 1,004 21 29 16 8 7 3 9 7 8
Infratest dimap 20–25 Jan 2025 1,185 22 30 17 7 6 3 10 5 8
INSA 18–25 Nov 2024 1,000 21 27 19 5 5 – 16 5 6
Infratest dimap 23–28 Oct 2024 1,153 22 28 19 5 4 – 14 8 6
INSA 16–23 Sep 2024 1,000 20 25 21 4 5 2 17 6 4
European Parliament election 9 Jun 2024 – 10.3 28.3 21.5 4.9 4.8 2.6 16.4 11.2 6
INSA 27 May–3 Jun 2024 1,000 23 25 20 5 6 4 14 3 2
Infratest dimap 2–7 May 2024 1,177 21 26 21 5 8 – 10 9 5
Forsa 13 Apr–3 May 2024 1,005 20 25 19 6 7 3 14 6 5
Forsa 10–16 Jan 2024 1,002 21 31 18 8 8 3 5 6 10
Wahlkreisprognose 19–28 Oct 2023 1,020 20 35 17.5 8 6.5 4 – 9 15
20.5 25 15.5 3.5 4.5 3.5 21 6.5 4
Infratest dimap 13–16 Sep 2023 1,182 23 32 18 8 8 3 – 8 9
INSA 26 Jun–3 Jul 2023 1,000 27 29 18 10 6 4 – 6 2
INSA 3–11 Apr 2023 1,000 28 25 19 11 6 5 – 6 3
Forsa 18–23 Jan 2023 1,004 27 21 18 12 9 4 – 9 6
Infratest dimap 13–18 Oct 2022 1,168 28 24 17 11 8 4 – 8 4
Wahlkreisprognose 4–14 Aug 2022 1,000 27 24 15 8 13 5 – 8 3
Wahlkreisprognose 13–20 Jun 2022 1,041 33 19 17.5 7 11 4 – 8.5 14
Infratest dimap 1–4 Jun 2022 1,081 30 19 19 9 11 4 – 8 11
INSA 25–28 Apr 2022 1,018 35 18 16 11 6 6 – 8 17
Forsa 14–18 Mar 2022 1,001 34 16 16 12 7 5 – 10 18
Wahlkreisprognose 1–10 Feb 2022 1,000 30 18 20 8 10 6 – 8 10
INSA 31 Jan–7 Feb 2022 1,000 36 17 16 11 6 6 – 8 19
2021 state election 26 Sep 2021 – 39.6 16.7 13.3 9.9 6.3 5.8 – 8.4 22.9
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Notes

  1. Holm is the minister-presidential candidate but Enrico Schult is first place on the party list, making Schult the 'lead candidate'; both are co-chairs of the AfD state chapter.[1]
  2. Including one AfD deputy who is not a member of the AfD faction but non-attached.
  3. Including one Green deputy who is not a member of the Green faction but non-attached.

References

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