2026 Mecklenburg-Vorpommern state election
German state election
From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
The 2026 Mecklenburg-Vorpommern state election is currently being held on 20 September 2026 to elect the 9th Landtag of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern. The 2026 Berlin state election takes place on the same day, two weeks after an AfD landslide win in the 2026 Saxony-Anhalt state election that potentially mobilises support for SPD.[2]
20 September 2026
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Election date
Under the Constitution of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern, a state election must be held between 58 and 61 months after the start of the legislative period. The 8th Landtag of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern was constituted on 26 October 2021. As no early dissolution of the parliament occurred, the election date was set to 20 September 2026, within the permissible window of 30 August to 22 November 2026.[3]
Electoral system
The Landtag of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern comprises at least 71 seats, with 36 allocated in single-member constituencies via first-past-the-post voting and the rest through closed party lists. German citizens aged 16 or older who have resided in the state for at least 37 days are eligible to vote, while those aged 18 or older with at least three months of primary residence in Mecklenburg-Vorpommern can stand for election, unless barred by a final court ruling. Seats are distributed using the Hare/Niemeyer method.
Background
Erwin Sellering (SPD), who was Minister-President since 2008, resigned in 2017 due to ill health, proposing Federal Minister of Family Affairs Manuela Schwesig as successor. She resigned from the third Merkel cabinet and continued with the SPD-CDU coalition, and also had to undergo medical treatment in 2019-2020. After a landslide win in 2021, winning 34 of 36 constituencies which expanded the parliament size from 71 to 79 seats, the SPD was six seats short of a majority, which could have been provided by CDU again, or The Left, with the second place AfD being off limits due to being subject to Germany's firewall policy that rejects cooperation. Schwesig picked The Left, forming the Second Schwesig cabinet.
The September 2026 poll numbers would not allow Manuela Schwesig to renew her two-party coalition with the Left Party as together they would reach 44%, same as AfD and CDU combined. If the Greens clear 5% election threshold, she could try to stay in office as Minister-President at the head of a three-party alliance of SPD with the Left and the Greens.[4]
In Mecklenburg-Vorpommern, the SPD has been the largest political party since the 1998 Mecklenburg-Vorpommern state election. This was quite different in the 2024 European & 2025 Federal elections when the SPD of Chancellor Scholz was on the ballot and only won 10% & 12% in Mecklenburg-Vorpommern, with only about a quarter of the votes that AfD and CDU won combined.
The CDU, the party of Chancellor Merz, in 1990 had started at 38% in M-V, but dropped in 2021 to a national low of 13%, which since was lowered to 12% in the 2024 Brandenburg state election. In early September 2026, the CDU polled at 7% or 6%, in danger of losing representation due to the 5% election threshold. It is thus unlikely to enter a formal government coalition as it lacks strength for a two-party coalition with the SPD, and rejects direct cooperation with the Left. The FDP is very likely to lose representation in this state according to polls, while the BSW passed the 5% in Saxony-Anhalt despite polling 4%.
During the final weeks of the election, the 2026 Merz government crisis were ongoing.
Parties
The table below lists parties currently represented in the 7th Landtag of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern.
| Name | Ideology | 2021 result | Current | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Votes (%) | Seats | |||||
| SPD | Social Democratic Party of Germany Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands |
Social democracy | 39.6% | 34 / 79 |
34 / 79 | |
| AfD | Alternative for Germany Alternative für Deutschland |
Right-wing populism | 16.7% | 14 / 79 |
14 / 79 | |
| CDU | Christian Democratic Union of Germany Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands |
Christian democracy | 13.3% | 12 / 79 |
12 / 79 | |
| Linke | The Left Die Linke |
Democratic socialism | 9.9% | 9 / 79 |
9 / 79 | |
| Grüne | Alliance 90/The Greens Bündnis 90/Die Grünen |
Green politics | 6.3% | 5 / 79 |
5 / 79 | |
| FDP | Free Democratic Party Freie Demokratische Partei |
Classical liberalism | 5.8% | 5 / 79 |
3 / 79 | |
The following minor parties submitted a state list of candidates to the returning officer and were approved to appear on the ballot:[5]
- Alliance C – Christians for Germany (Bündnis C)
- Communist Party of Germany (KPD)
- Ecological-Democratic Party (ÖDP)
- Free Voters (FW)
- Party Human Climate Animal-Protection (Tierschutzpartei)
- The Party for Labour, Rule of Law, Animal Protection, Promotion of Elites and Grassroots Democratic Initiative (Die PARTEI)
- Party of Progress (PdF)
- Pirate Party Germany (PIRATEN)
- Sahra Wagenknecht Alliance – Reason and Justice (BSW)
- Team Freedom (TF)
- Tradesman's Party of Germany
- Volt Germany (Volt)
- WE LIVE DEMOCRACY (WLD)
Campaign

Debate invitation controversies
In June, the leaders of the four largest parties, both in parliament and in polls, – Schwesig (SPD), Holm (AfD), Peters (CDU) and Oldenburg (Left) – were invited to a TV debate in September, organized by RTL in cooperation with ntv and the private radio station Ostseewelle to take place shortly before the election. While Greens and FDP are represented in the parliament, polls suggest they might (Greens) or will (FDP) fail to clear the 5% election threshold. On 11 August, Peters (CDU) and Oldenburg (Left), from parties polling around 10%, were controversially disinvited by RTL, leaving the debate as a head-to-head duel between Schwesig and Holm, leaders of parties that poll around 30+%. This led to anger from both the CDU and the Left.[6] The Schwesig-Holm TV debate on 9 September was called aggressive.[7][8]
Opinion polls
Graphical summary
Party polling
| Polling firm | Fieldwork date | Sample size |
SPD | AfD | CDU | Linke | Grüne | FDP | BSW | Others | Lead |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 state election | 20 Sep 2026 | – | |||||||||
| Forschungsgruppe Wahlen | 14–17 Sep 2026 | 1,395 | 37 | 36 | 6 | 9 | 5 | – | 4 | 3 | 1 |
| INSA | 8–15 Sep 2026 | 1,000 | 35 | 37 | 7 | 10 | 5 | – | 3 | 3 | 2 |
| Forschungsgruppe Wahlen | 7–10 Sep 2026 | 1,053 | 34 | 37 | 7 | 10 | 5 | – | 4 | 3 | 3 |
| pollytix | 8–9 Sep 2026 | 1,252 | 30 | 36 | 6 | 12 | 6 | 2 | 5 | 3 | 6 |
| Infratest dimap | 7–9 Sep 2026 | 1,565 | 33 | 38 | 7 | 9 | 5 | – | 4 | 4 | 5 |
| INSA | 1–8 Sep 2026 | 1,000 | 33 | 36 | 7 | 11 | 5 | – | 4 | 4 | 3 |
| Infratest dimap | 26–31 Aug 2026 | 1,215 | 32 | 35 | 8 | 11 | 5 | – | 4 | 5 | 3 |
| Forsa | 21–27 Aug 2026 | 1,047 | 28 | 37 | 10 | 11 | 5 | – | 4 | 5 | 9 |
| INSA | 4–11 Aug 2026 | 1,000 | 29 | 36 | 10 | 11 | 5 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 7 |
| Infratest dimap | 2–6 Jul 2026 | 1,167 | 29 | 36 | 9 | 12 | 5 | – | 4 | 5 | 7 |
| INSA | 11–18 Jun 2026 | 1,000 | 28 | 35 | 10 | 11 | 4 | 3 | 6 | 3 | 7 |
| Infratest dimap | 7–11 May 2026 | 1,153 | 27 | 36 | 10 | 13 | 4 | – | 5 | 5 | 9 |
| INSA | 6–16 Mar 2026 | 1,000 | 26 | 34 | 12 | 10 | 5 | 3 | 5 | 5 | 8 |
| Forsa | 9–16 Feb 2026 | 1,003 | 23 | 37 | 13 | 11 | 4 | 2 | 5 | 5 | 14 |
| Forsa | 9–16 Feb 2026 | 1,003 | 23 | 37 | 13 | 11 | 4 | 2 | 5 | 5 | 14 |
| Infratest dimap | 21–24 Jan 2026 | 1,145 | 25 | 35 | 13 | 12 | 4 | – | 6 | 5 | 10 |
| Infratest dimap | 18–23 Sep 2025 | 1,151 | 19 | 38 | 13 | 12 | 5 | – | 7 | 6 | 19 |
| INSA | 8–15 Apr 2025 | 1,000 | 21 | 29 | 17 | 15 | 5 | – | 6 | 7 | 8 |
| Federal election | 23 Feb 2025 | – | 12.4 | 35.0 | 16.0 | 12.0 | 5.4 | 3.2 | 10.6 | 3.6 | 19 |
| Forsa | 28 Jan–3 Feb 2025 | 1,004 | 21 | 29 | 16 | 8 | 7 | 3 | 9 | 7 | 8 |
| Infratest dimap | 20–25 Jan 2025 | 1,185 | 22 | 30 | 17 | 7 | 6 | 3 | 10 | 5 | 8 |
| INSA | 18–25 Nov 2024 | 1,000 | 21 | 27 | 19 | 5 | 5 | – | 16 | 5 | 6 |
| Infratest dimap | 23–28 Oct 2024 | 1,153 | 22 | 28 | 19 | 5 | 4 | – | 14 | 8 | 6 |
| INSA | 16–23 Sep 2024 | 1,000 | 20 | 25 | 21 | 4 | 5 | 2 | 17 | 6 | 4 |
| European Parliament election | 9 Jun 2024 | – | 10.3 | 28.3 | 21.5 | 4.9 | 4.8 | 2.6 | 16.4 | 11.2 | 6 |
| INSA | 27 May–3 Jun 2024 | 1,000 | 23 | 25 | 20 | 5 | 6 | 4 | 14 | 3 | 2 |
| Infratest dimap | 2–7 May 2024 | 1,177 | 21 | 26 | 21 | 5 | 8 | – | 10 | 9 | 5 |
| Forsa | 13 Apr–3 May 2024 | 1,005 | 20 | 25 | 19 | 6 | 7 | 3 | 14 | 6 | 5 |
| Forsa | 10–16 Jan 2024 | 1,002 | 21 | 31 | 18 | 8 | 8 | 3 | 5 | 6 | 10 |
| Wahlkreisprognose | 19–28 Oct 2023 | 1,020 | 20 | 35 | 17.5 | 8 | 6.5 | 4 | – | 9 | 15 |
| 20.5 | 25 | 15.5 | 3.5 | 4.5 | 3.5 | 21 | 6.5 | 4 | |||
| Infratest dimap | 13–16 Sep 2023 | 1,182 | 23 | 32 | 18 | 8 | 8 | 3 | – | 8 | 9 |
| INSA | 26 Jun–3 Jul 2023 | 1,000 | 27 | 29 | 18 | 10 | 6 | 4 | – | 6 | 2 |
| INSA | 3–11 Apr 2023 | 1,000 | 28 | 25 | 19 | 11 | 6 | 5 | – | 6 | 3 |
| Forsa | 18–23 Jan 2023 | 1,004 | 27 | 21 | 18 | 12 | 9 | 4 | – | 9 | 6 |
| Infratest dimap | 13–18 Oct 2022 | 1,168 | 28 | 24 | 17 | 11 | 8 | 4 | – | 8 | 4 |
| Wahlkreisprognose | 4–14 Aug 2022 | 1,000 | 27 | 24 | 15 | 8 | 13 | 5 | – | 8 | 3 |
| Wahlkreisprognose | 13–20 Jun 2022 | 1,041 | 33 | 19 | 17.5 | 7 | 11 | 4 | – | 8.5 | 14 |
| Infratest dimap | 1–4 Jun 2022 | 1,081 | 30 | 19 | 19 | 9 | 11 | 4 | – | 8 | 11 |
| INSA | 25–28 Apr 2022 | 1,018 | 35 | 18 | 16 | 11 | 6 | 6 | – | 8 | 17 |
| Forsa | 14–18 Mar 2022 | 1,001 | 34 | 16 | 16 | 12 | 7 | 5 | – | 10 | 18 |
| Wahlkreisprognose | 1–10 Feb 2022 | 1,000 | 30 | 18 | 20 | 8 | 10 | 6 | – | 8 | 10 |
| INSA | 31 Jan–7 Feb 2022 | 1,000 | 36 | 17 | 16 | 11 | 6 | 6 | – | 8 | 19 |
| 2021 state election | 26 Sep 2021 | – | 39.6 | 16.7 | 13.3 | 9.9 | 6.3 | 5.8 | – | 8.4 | 22.9 |
Notes
- Holm is the minister-presidential candidate but Enrico Schult is first place on the party list, making Schult the 'lead candidate'; both are co-chairs of the AfD state chapter.[1]
- Including one AfD deputy who is not a member of the AfD faction but non-attached.
- Including one Green deputy who is not a member of the Green faction but non-attached.