2026 New Zealand general election
From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
The 2026 New Zealand general election is planned to be held on 7 November 2026.[1][2][a] Voters will elect 120 members to the House of Representatives under New Zealand's mixed-member proportional (MMP) voting system, comprising 71 members elected from single-member electorates and 49 members elected from closed party lists to achieve proportionality.
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7 November 2026
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All 120 seats (plus any overhang) in the House of Representatives 61 seats needed for a majority | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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 Results by electorate, shaded by winning margin | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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After the previous election, the centre-right National Party, led by prime minister Christopher Luxon, formed a coalition government with the ACT and New Zealand First parties. The main opponent to the National–ACT–NZ First government is the centre-left Labour Party, led by former prime minister Chris Hipkins. Other opposition parties include the left-wing Green Party and the indigenous rights-based Te Pāti Māori.
Electoral system
New Zealand uses the mixed-member proportional (MMP) voting system to elect the House of Representatives. Each voter gets two votes, one for a political party (the party vote) and one for a local candidate (the electorate vote). Political parties which meet the threshold (5% of the party vote or one electorate seat) receive seats in the House in proportion to the percentage of the party vote they receive. At this election, 71 of the 120 seats will be filled by the MPs elected from the electorates, with the winner in each electorate determined by the first past the post method (i.e. most votes wins). The remaining 49 seats will be filled by candidates from each party's closed party list. If a party wins more electorates than seats it is entitled to under the party vote, an overhang results; in this case, the House will add extra seats to cover the overhang.
The political party or party bloc with the majority of the seats in the House forms the Government. Since the introduction of MMP in 1996, a party has only won an outright majority of seats once, when the Labour Party won 65 out of 120 seats in 2020. As a result, parties typically negotiate with other parties to form a coalition government or a minority government.
Electorate boundaries
Electorate boundaries for the next election are due to be redrawn following the 2023 census. This means that unless a snap election is called before the boundary review, the next general election will be the first to use boundaries based on the 2023 census.[4][5]
The number of South Island general electorates is fixed at 16,[6] with the number of North Island general electorates and Māori electorates increasing or decreasing in proportion. For the 2020 and 2023 elections, there were 49 North Island general electorates and seven Māori electorates, leaving 48 seats to be elected through party lists. Due to changes in the relative populations between the two islands, Statistics New Zealand announced on 25 October 2024 that there would be 16 South Island electorates, 48 North Island electorates, 7 Māori electorates, and 49 list seats.[7][8] Redrawn draft boundaries were released for public consultation on 25 March 2025. The draft boundaries proposed the disestablishment of the Ōhāriu, Mana and Ōtaki electorates in Wellington, replacing them with two new electorates, Kenepuru and Kapiti. Meanwhile due to significant boundary changes in New Lynn, Kelston, Te Atatū, Panmure-Ōtāhuhu, and Bay of Plenty, those electorates are proposed to be replaced with new electorates named Waitākere, Glendene, Rānui, Ōtāhuhu, and Mount Maunganui respectively.[9] The majority of objections to the draft boundaries concerned moving Balmoral from Epsom to Mount Albert, moving Ashhurst from Rangitīkei to Wairarapa, and moving Newlands and Woodridge from Ōhāriu to Hutt South.[10][11]
On 8 August, the electorate boundaries were finalised, with the reconfiguration leading to the creation of new electorates. In western Auckland, the electorates of New Lynn, Kelston and Te Atatū were reconfigured into Waitakere, Glendene and Henderson. In southern Auckland, the electorate of Panmure-Ōtāhuhu becomes Ōtāhuhu after losing the Panmure suburbs. In Bay of Plenty, the electorates of Tauranga and Bay of Plenty are reconfigured, with the Bay of Plenty electorate being renamed Mount Maunganui to reflect the change. In the East Coast, the East Coast electorate was renamed to East Cape.
In the lower North Island, the electorates of Otaki, Mana and Ōhāriu are reconfigured into the Kenepuru and Kapiti electorates. In Wellington, the northward shift of Wellington Central led to the recreation of the Wellington North electorate, while the expansion of Rongotai into the Wellington suburbs led to the formation of the Wellington Bays electorate.[12]
Changes to electoral system
On 16 December 2025, the New Zealand Parliament passed the Electoral Amendment Act 2025, which amended the Electoral Act 1993 ahead of the 2026 general election. The new law limits voter enrolment to 13 days before polling day, banned prisoners from voting, raised the threshold for voluntary donations from NZ$5,000 to NZ$6,000 and banned the distribution of food and most drinks near polling booths.[13][14] The law change was supported by the governing National, ACT and New Zealand First parties but was opposed by the opposition Labour, Green parties, and Te Pāti Māori, who described it as amounting to voter suppression and discriminatory against younger and ethnic minority voters.[14][15]
Election date and schedule
Unless an early election is called or the election date is set to circumvent holding a by-election, a general election is held every three years. The last election was held on Saturday, 14 October 2023.[16]
The governor-general must issue writs for an election within seven days of the expiration or dissolution of the current Parliament.[17] Under section 17 of the Constitution Act 1986, Parliament expires three years "from the day fixed for the return of the writs issued for the last preceding general election of members of the House of Representatives, and no longer." The writs for the 2023 election were returned on 9 November 2023. As a result, the 54th Parliament would expire, if not dissolved earlier, on Monday, 9 November 2026. Consequently, the last day for issuance of writs of election would be 16 November 2026. The writs must be returned within 60 days of their issuance (save for any judicial recount or death of a candidate), which would be Friday, 15 January 2027.[18] Because polling day must be a Saturday,[18] and two weeks is generally required for the counting of special votes, the last possible date that this election could be held is Saturday, 19 December 2026.
On 21 January 2026, Prime Minister Christopher Luxon announced that the election will be held on 7 November 2026.[19] The schedule for the election under legislation is as follows:[20]
| 21 January 2026 (Wednesday) | Prime Minister Christopher Luxon announces the general election will be held on 7 November. |
| 6 August 2026 (Thursday) | Last day for registration of parties and party logos; last day to change roll type (general or Māori) for Māori voters. |
| 7 August 2026 (Friday) | The regulated election advertising period begins. |
| 7 September 2026 (Monday) | Candidate nominations open. |
| 1 October 2026 (Thursday) | The 54th Parliament is dissolved. |
| 14 October 2026 (Sunday) | Writ day – Governor-General issues formal direction to the Electoral Commission to hold the election.
Last day to ordinarily enrol to vote (late enrolments must cast special votes). Official campaigning begins; radio and television advertising begins. |
| 8 October 2026 (Friday) | Nominations for candidates close at 12:00 noon. |
| 21 October 2026 (Wednesday) | Overseas voting begins. |
| 25 October 2026 (Sunday) | Last day to enrol to vote. |
| 26 October 2026 (Monday) | Advance voting begins. |
| 6 November 2026 (Friday) | Advance and overseas voting ends.
The regulated election advertising period ends; all election advertising must be taken down by midnight. |
| 7 November 2026 (Saturday) | Election day – polling places open 9:00 am to 7:00 pm.
People may enrol in-person at polling places. Preliminary election results released progressively after 7:00 pm. |
| 27 November 2026 (Friday) | Official election results declared. |
| 3 December 2026 (Thursday) | Writ for election returned; official declaration of elected members (subject to judicial recounts). |
Parties and candidates
Since the 2023 election, seven parties have been deregistered: DemocracyNZ on 15 February 2024,[21][b] Leighton Baker Party on 27 May 2024,[22][c] New Zealand Loyal on 26 July 2024,[23][d] Democratic Alliance on 27 November 2024,[24] New Nation Party on 29 January 2025,[25][e] Freedoms New Zealand on 1 May 2025, [26][f] and NewZeal on 31 March 2026.[27][g]
| Party | Leader(s) | Founded | Ideology | 2023 election result | Current seats | Status | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| % party vote | seats | |||||||
| National | Christopher Luxon | 1936 | Conservatism | 38.08% | 48 / 123 |
49 / 123 |
Coalition | |
| Labour | Chris Hipkins | 1916 | Social democracy | 26.92% | 34 / 123 |
34 / 123 |
Opposition | |
| Green | Marama Davidson Chlöe Swarbrick |
1990 | Green politics Social democracy |
11.61% | 15 / 123 |
15 / 123 |
Opposition | |
| ACT | David Seymour | 1994 | Classical liberalism Right-libertarianism Conservatism |
8.64% | 11 / 123 |
11 / 123 |
Coalition | |
| NZ First | Winston Peters | 1993 | Nationalism Social conservatism Right-wing populism |
6.09% | 8 / 123 |
8 / 123 |
Coalition | |
| Te Pāti Māori | Debbie Ngarewa-Packer Rawiri Waititi |
2004 | Māori rights Tino rangatiratanga |
3.08% | 6 / 123 |
5 / 123 |
Opposition | |
| Opportunity | Qiulae Wong | 2016 | Radical centrism | 2.22% | 0 / 123 |
0 / 123 |
Extra-parliamentary | |
| Legalise Cannabis | Maki Herbert Michael Appleby |
1996 | Cannabis legalisation | 0.45% | 0 / 123 |
0 / 123 |
Extra-parliamentary | |
| Outdoors | Sue Grey | 2015 | Environmentalism Conspiracism Social conservatism |
0.34%[h] | 0 / 123 |
0 / 123 |
Extra-parliamentary | |
| Vision NZ | Hannah Tamaki | 2019 | Christian nationalism | 0 / 123 |
0 / 123 |
Extra-parliamentary | ||
| Animal Justice | Anna Rippon Robert McNeil |
2023 | Animal rights | 0.17% | 0 / 123 |
0 / 123 |
Extra-parliamentary | |
| Conservative Party NZ | Helen Houghton | 2011 | Conservatism Traditionalism |
0.15% | 0 / 123 |
0 / 123 |
Extra-parliamentary | |
| Women's Rights | Jill Ovens Chimene del la Varis |
2023 | Gender critical ideology | 0.08% | 0 / 123 |
0 / 123 |
Extra-parliamentary | |
MPs not standing for re-election
Damien O'Connor announced on 26 January 2026 that he would not stand in the West Coast-Tasman electorate again, and subsequently transitioned to standing in the Waitaki electorate. Andrew Bayly similarly announced on 3 March 2026 that he would not stand in the Port Waikato electorate again, and is exploring whether or not to stand on the list.[28]
| Name | Party | Electorate/List | Term in office | Date announced | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Duncan Webb | Labour | Christchurch Central | 2017–present | 21 October 2025[29] | |
| Paulo Garcia | National | New Lynn | 2019–2020, 2023–present | 16 December 2025[30] | |
| Maureen Pugh | National | West Coast-Tasman | 2016–2017, 2018–present | 23 January 2026[31] | |
| Celia Wade-Brown | Green | List | 2024–present | 28 January 2026[32] | |
| Judith Collins | National | Papakura | 2002–present | 28 January 2026[33] | |
| Shane Reti | National | Whangārei | 2014–present | 10 March 2026[34] | |
| Brooke van Velden | ACT | Tāmaki | 2020–present | 24 March 2026[35] | |
MPs standing for re-election as list-only MPs
| Name | Party | Electorate/List | Term in office | Date announced | Notes | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Megan Woods | Labour | Wigram | 2011–present | 3 August 2025[36] | ||
| Nicola Willis | National | List | 2018–present | 22 December 2025[37] | ||
| Greg O'Connor | Labour | Ōhāriu | 2017–present | 21 January 2026[38] | Intention to become Speaker of the House of Representatives | |
Fundraising
Under New Zealand electoral law, registered political parties are required to report any individual donations above $20,000 to the Electoral Commission within 20 days during an election year. During a non-election year, political parties are required to report all donations above $6,000, most anonymous donations over $1,000 (except those protected from disclosure), any overseas donations over $50 and the quantity and total sum of any large donations that were not made anonymously in their annual returns.[39]
By 30 April 2026, the following parties had received the following amounts in electoral donations during the 2025 calendar year.[40]
| Party | Donation amount (NZD) | Notes | |
|---|---|---|---|
| National | $6,275,234.46 | Includes $100,000 from Van Den Brink Karaka Limited,[39] $100,000 from GMP Environmental Ltd (a subsidiary of Greymouth Petroleum),[39] $100,000 from Auckland construction businessman Michael Sullivan,[39] $50,000 from real estate businessman Garth Barfoot,[39] $30,000 from former National MP Jim Gerard,[39] $210,000 from the late Nelson philanthropist Robert Wares,[40] $201,993.91 from American New Zealand tech entrepreneur Brian Cartmell.[40] | |
| ACT | $2,445,225.79 | Includes $100,000 from GMP Environmental,[39] $100,000 from Van Den Brink Karaka,[39] $100,000 from toy manufacturer Nick Mowbray,[39] $25,000 from Xero founder Hamish Edwards,[39] $24,980 from Morris Hey,[39] and $200,000 from Brian Cartmell.[41] | |
| Labour | $2,403,241.93 | Includes $125,000 from the Mills Family Trust[40] and $22,333 from Auckland donor Mary Theresa O'Brien.[39] | |
| Green | $1,848,678.65 | Includes $132,000 from entrepreneur Robert Morgan,[40] $50,000 from Les Mills gym franchise managing director Phillip Mills.[40] and $43,014.56 from Green MP Francisco Hernandez.[39] | |
| NZ First | $1,360,272.56 | Includes $204,999 from Brian Cartmell,[40] $100,000 from GMP Environmental,[39] $50,000 from Michael Sullivan[39] and unspecified amounts from businessman Troy Bowker, GMP and Van Den Bink.[39] | |
| Opportunity | $179,401.24 | Includes $50,000 from Phillip Mills[42] and $100,000 from Brian Cartmell.[41] | |
| Te Pāti Māori | $141,986.50 | Includes $60,000 from party president John Tamihere.[40] | |
| Animal Justice | $12,707.95 | ||
| Women's Rights | $9,650.50 | ||
| Conservative Party NZ | $9,519.73 | ||
| NewZeal | $8,796.00 | No longer registered[40] | |
| Vision New Zealand | $6,718.43 | ||
| Legalise Cannabis | $336.00 | ||
| Outdoors | $270.00 | ||
Campaigning
Expense limits and broadcasting allocations
Each election year, the Electoral Commission allocates funding towards political parties for electoral advertising on radio, television and the Internet. Allocations are based on several factors including the number of voters a party has received at the previous election, the number of Members of Parliament a party has, the relationships between parties, indications of public support including public opinion polls and party membership, and giving each party a fair opportunity to communicate its policies to the public. On 7 May, the Commission announced its broadcasting funding allocation decision for the 2026 general election.[40]
| Party | Broadcasting allocation (NZD)[40][43] | |
|---|---|---|
| National | $1,079,519 | |
| Labour | $913,435 | |
| Green | $394,438 | |
| ACT | $332,158 | |
| NZ First | $290,639 | |
| Te Pāti Māori | $228,359 | |
| Opportunity | $114,179 | |
| NZ Loyal | $83,040 | |
| Animal Justice | $78,887 | |
| Legalise Cannabis | $78,887 | |
| Change New Zealand | $78,887 | |
| Conservative Party NZ | $78,887 | |
| Free Palestine (political party) | $78,887 | |
| Outdoors | $78,887 | |
| People’s Party New Zealand Incorporated | $78,887 | |
| Vision New Zealand | $78,887 | |
| Women's Rights | $78,887 | |
Party campaigns
National Party
In November 2025, the National Party announced that it would gradually raise the default KiwiSaver contribution for employees and employers from 3% to 6% by 2032 if re-elected in 2026.[44] On 21 February 2026, National's conservation spokesperson Tama Potaka announced that the party would campaign on further restricting commercial fishing in the Hauraki Gulf.[45] Following a cabinet reshuffle on 2 April 2026, cabinet minister Simeon Brown replaced Chris Bishop as National's campaign chair for the 2026 general election.[46]
On 17 May, Justice Minister Paul Goldsmith announced that National would campaign on scrapping "good character" sentencing discounts for sexual offending if re-elected.[47]
Labour Party
In late October 2025, Labour made two policy announcements including the establishment of an economic investment fund called the "NZ Future Fund" and the introduction of a capital gains tax based on property transactions to subsidise doctors' visits.[48][49] In early November 2025, the party proposed free cervical cancer screenings for all women aged between 25 and 69 years.[50] In mid-November, the party announced that it would repeal the Regulatory Standards Act 2025 within its first 100 days of government if it won the 2026 general election.[51] Prior to the party's annual general meeting, Labour leader Chris Hipkins confirmed that the party would contest all seven Māori electorates, citing the internal conflict within Te Pāti Māori, which holds six of those seats. The party has sought to exploit growing voter disillusionment with the National-led coalition government's handling of cost of living, health, economic and housing issues.[52]
In mid January 2026, Labour proposed a streaming levy on foreign streaming companies like Netflix in order to invest in the New Zealand film industry.[53] In early February 2026, Labour leader Chris Hipkins along with the Greens co-leaders Chlöe Swarbrick and Marama Davidson announced during a press conference at the Waitangi Treaty Grounds that the two parties would work together during the election and in a future government.[54] In late April, Labour announced that it would campaign on reinstating school boards' Treaty of Waitangi obligations and reversing the coalition government's curriculum changes, mandated testing and so-called "politicisation of the education system."[55]
In mid-May 2026, the party declined to release details of its Future Funds policy until after the 2026 general election, including the cost to the New Zealand Crown and which state assets would be merged into the fund; citing several state-owned enterprises having Treaty of Waitangi obligations.[56]
Green Party
In May 2025, the Greens released their alternative "Green Budget", which proposed investing $8 billion over the next four years in various green policies including creating a Ministry of Green Works and supporting sustainable infrastructure.[57] Other notable Green Budget policies have included a new wealth tax, higher corporate taxes, a private jet tax, higher mining royalties and income tax rates.[58] In mid November 2025, the Greens confirmed they would revoke all coal, gold and seabed mining consents approved under the incumbent coalition government's Fast-track Approvals Act 2024.[59]
In early February 2026, co-leader Marama Davidson confirmed that the party would be fielding candidates in three of the Māori electorates including list MP Huhana Lyndon, lawyer Tania Waikato and former Te Pāti Māori candidate Heather Te-Au Skipworth.[60] On 12 March, the party released its draft party list of candidates, which was finalised on 22 April.[61][62] On 25 March, the party announced its housing policies including building 40,000 new social homes over a five-year period, passing a Renters' Rights Bill capping rent increases at 2% a year, and creating a national register of landlords.[63]
During the party's State of the Planet annual address on 19 April, Davidson and Swarbrick confirmed that the Greens would campaign on promoting mass electrification at the 2026 election. Swarbrick said that if elected, the Greens would prioritise solar, wind, water and geothermal energy over fossil fuels in response to the 2026 Iran War.[64]
ACT
On 15 February 2026, the ACT Party held its annual State of the Nation address in Christchurch, where party leader David Seymour stated they would campaign on decreasing government spending, and merging ministerial portfolios.[65][66] On 19 February, Seymour advocated merging the Ministry for Ethnic Communities, Ministry for Women, Ministry for Pacific Peoples, Office for Seniors, Ministry of Youth Development and Te Puni Kōkiri (Ministry for Māori Development) into the Ministry for Culture and Heritage.[67]
On 16 April, Seymour confirmed that ACT would campaign on banning unelected appointees on local council committees from having voting rights. ACT Local councillor Davina Smolders had earlier clashed with Mayor of the Far North Moko Tepania for expanding the number of Māori iwi (tribal) and hapu (clan) representatives on the Far North District Council's Te Kuaka Māori Strategic Relationships Committee.[68]
On 3 May, Seymour released ACT's immigration policies, which included deporting serious non-citizen offenders, a five-year welfare exclusion period for all residency visa holders, a $6 daily infrastructure surcharge for temporary work visa holders, strengthening English language requirements for most work visa holders, and creating a new overstayer enforcement unit within Immigration New Zealand.[69] On 5 May, Seymour said ACT would campaign on allowing pharmacists to treat and manage several medical issues in order to reduce the workload on general practitioners and nurses.[70]
New Zealand First
Despite supporting the passage of the Government's Regulatory Standards Act 2025 into law in mid November 2025, New Zealand First subsequently announced on 20 November that it would repeal the legislation if re-elected into government in 2026. NZ First leader Winston Peters said that the party had only supported the Regulatory Standards Act due to ACT New Zealand's coalition agreement with the National Party.[71]
On 10 February 2026, NZ First deputy leader Shane Jones confirmed the party would campaign on reinstating ministerial powers in approving fast-track projects during the 2026 election.[72] On 12 February, the party confirmed it would campaign for a referendum on the future of the Māori electorates.[73]
During the party's State of the Nation address in Tauranga on 22 March 2026, Peters announced that NZ First would campaign on splitting the four energy companies and reducing proper prices. Former National MP and NewZeal leader Alfred Ngaro also announced that he would be standing as an NZ First candidate during the election.[74][75] That same day, Ngaro confirmed that he and his party would align with NZ First, citing "strategic realism and shared values."[76] On 27 March, Peters announced that NZ First would commit $15 million to rebuilding the Christchurch Cathedral if it was part of the next government.[77] On 29 March, Peters said that the party would campaign on expanding mining operations and curbing the enforcement powers of the Department of Conservation.[78]
On 19 April, NZ First said it would campaign on breaking up New Zealand's supermarket duopoly as a means of lowering food prices. The party has proposed splitting grocery company Foodstuffs into two countrywide cooperatives—where one operates New World and Four Square, and the other operates Pak'nSave—in order to compete with Woolworths.[79]
On 17 May, Peters said that the party would campaign on nationalising the Bank of New Zealand and merging it with Kiwibank to form a proposed Crown-owned "National Bank of New Zealand." He also proposed enrolling all newborn citizens into a Crown-funded Kiwisaver programme.[80] On 24 May, Peters said NZ First would campaign on establishing a special economic zone at Marsden Point to provide relief from planning regulations and the Resource Management Act 1991 in the area.[81]
Te Pāti Māori
In February 2025, Te Pāti Māori proposed the creation of a Parliamentary Commissioner for Te Tiriti o Waitangi, who would have extraordinary powers to audit and veto bills that did not comply with the Treaty. The party described the policy as a "bottomline" in any coalition negotiations.[82] In April 2025, Te Pāti Māori announced plans to run candidates in the general seats at the 2026 general election.[83]
In January 2026, the party stated they will campaign on abolishing prisons by 2040 to address the high Māori incarceration rate, replacing them with "community-led and community-based solutions".[84]
The Opportunity Party
The Opportunity Party has announced it would campaign with several policies, including reducing house prices through a land value tax, and introducing a "Citizen's Voice", consisting of citizens' assemblies for certain major issues.[85] In mid-February 2026, party leader Qiulae Wong announced that Opportunity would campaign on replacing all forms of welfare assistance including superannuation with a means-tested "citizen's income." Unlike universal basic income, people earning more than NZ$350,000 a year would not be able to access it. The citizen's income policy would be funded by a land value tax, and savings from the benefits that would be replaced.[86] On 16 February, the party's general manager Iain Lees-Galloway announced that the party would field about 30 candidates during the 2026 election with the goal of reaching the five percent threshold for the party needed to enter Parliament.[87] During the party's State of the Nation address in Auckland on 21 February, Wong announced that the Opportunity Party would campaign on promoting national unity, banning bottom trawling and investing in renewal energy.[88]
On 20 March, the Opportunity Party released its initial list of 26 candidates.[89]
Opinion polling
Seat projections
The use of mixed-member proportional representation allows ready conversion of a party's support into a party vote percentage and therefore a number of seats in Parliament. Projections generally assume no material change to the electorate seats held by each party (ACT retains Epsom and Tāmaki, Greens retain Auckland Central, Rongotai and Wellington Central, Te Pāti Māori retains all six of their Māori electorates, etc). However, projections that show the National Party winning fewer than 44 total seats (44 being the number of electorate seats currently held by National) assume that National will lose at least enough electorates to avoid an overhang. Parties that do not hold an electorate seat and poll below 5% are assumed to win zero seats.
When determining the scenarios for the overall result, the minimum parties necessary to form majority governments are listed (provided parties have indicated openness to working together). Actual governments formed may include other parties beyond the minimum required for a majority; this happened after the 2014 election, when National only needed one seat from another party to reach a 61-seat majority, but instead chose to form a 64-seat government with Māori, ACT and United Future.[90]
| Pollster Date |
Seats in parliament[i] | Likely government formation | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NAT | LAB | GRN | ACT | NZF | TPM | Total | ||
| Talbot Mills[91] 1–10 May 2026 |
36 | 45 | 11 | 9 | 17 | 5*** | 123 | National–ACT–NZ First (62) |
| Taxpayers' Union–Curia[92] 3–7 May 2026 |
39 | 41 | 12 | 8 | 15 | 5 | 120 | National–ACT–NZ First (62) |
| Roy Morgan[93] 30 Mar – 26 Apr 2026 |
32 | 43 | 14 | 13 | 14 | 5* | 121 | Labour–Greens–Māori (62) |
| Talbot Mills[94] 16 Apr 2026 |
36 | 44 | 9 | 10 | 19 | 5*** | 123 | National–ACT–NZ First (65) |
| 1 News–Verian[95] 11–15 Apr 2026 |
37 | 46 | 14 | 9 | 12 | 5*** | 123 | Labour–Greens–Māori (65) |
| Taxpayers' Union–Curia[96] 1–2 Apr 2026 |
37 | 42 | 10 | 11 | 17 | 5** | 122 | National–ACT–NZ First (65) |
| Roy Morgan[97] 23 Feb – 22 Mar 2026 |
33 | 43 | 14 | 12 | 14 | 5* | 121 | Labour–Greens–Māori (62) |
| RNZ–Reid Research[98] 12–20 Mar 2026 |
38 | 44 | 12 | 9 | 13 | 5* | 121 | Labour–Greens–Māori (61) |
| Talbot Mills[99] 2–12 Mar 2026 |
39 | 43 | 14 | 9 | 13 | 5*** | 123 | Labour–Greens–Māori (62) |
| Taxpayers' Union–Curia[100] 1–3 Mar 2026 |
36 | 44 | 13 | 10 | 13 | 4 | 120 | Labour–Greens–Māori (61) |
| Roy Morgan[101] 27 Jan – 22 Feb 2026 |
39 | 38 | 18 | 10 | 12 | 4* | 121 | National–ACT–NZ First (61) |
| The Post/ 6–12 Feb 2026 |
38 | 46 | 13 | 7 | 14 | 4** | 122 | Labour–Greens–Māori (63) |
| 1 News–Verian[103] 7–11 Feb 2026 |
42 | 39 | 14 | 11 | 12 | 4** | 122 | National–ACT–NZ First (65) |
| Taxpayers' Union–Curia[104] 1–3 Feb 2026 |
39 | 43 | 13 | 8 | 13 | 4 | 120 | Hung parliament |
| Roy Morgan[105] 6–26 Jan 2026 |
43 | 38 | 13 | 11 | 11 | 4 | 120 | National–ACT–NZ First (64) |
| RNZ–Reid Research[106] 15–22 Jan 2026 |
40 | 43 | 12 | 9 | 12 | 4 | 120 | National–ACT–NZ First (61) |
| Taxpayers' Union–Curia[107] 14–18 Jan 2026 |
39 | 43 | 10 | 9 | 15 | 4 | 120 | National–ACT–NZ First (63) |
| Roy Morgan[108] 25 Nov – 21 Dec 2025 |
41 | 40 | 15 | 9 | 12 | 4* | 121 | National–ACT–NZ First (62) |
| The Post/ 5–10 Dec 2025 |
38 | 48 | 10 | 10 | 11 | 4* | 121 | Labour–Greens–Māori (62) |
| 1 News–Verian[110] 29 Nov–3 Dec 2025 |
44 | 43 | 9 | 12 | 11 | 4*** | 123 | National–ACT–NZ First (67) |
| Roy Morgan[111] 27 Oct – 23 Nov 2025 |
42 | 36 | 18 | 10 | 11 | 4* | 121 | National–ACT–NZ First (63) |
| Talbot Mills[112] 1–10 Nov 2025 |
40 | 47 | 11 | 9 | 10 | 4* | 121 | Labour–Greens–Māori (62) |
| Taxpayers' Union–Curia[113] 2–6 Nov 2025 |
39 | 42 | 12 | 11 | 12 | 6** | 122 | National–ACT–NZ First (62) |
| Roy Morgan[114] 29 Sep – 26 Oct 2025 |
41 | 39 | 15 | 10 | 12 | 6*** | 123 | National–ACT–NZ First (63) |
| Talbot Mills[115] 1–10 Oct 2025 |
35 | 43 | 12 | 10 | 15 | 6* | 121 | Labour–Greens–Māori (61) |
| 1 News–Verian[116] 4–8 Oct 2025 |
42 | 40 | 14 | 9 | 12 | 6*** | 123 | National–ACT–NZ First (63) |
| The Post/ 3–8 Oct 2025 |
38 | 42 | 11 | 11 | 14 | 6** | 122 | National–ACT–NZ First (63) |
| Taxpayers' Union–Curia[118] 1–5 Oct 2025 |
38 | 40 | 15 | 8 | 13 | 6 | 120 | Labour–Greens–Māori (61) |
| Roy Morgan[119] 25 Aug – 21 Sep 2025 |
39 | 36 | 17 | 11 | 10 | 7 | 120 | Hung parliament |
| RNZ–Reid Research[120] 4–12 Sep 2025 |
40 | 42 | 13 | 9 | 11 | 6* | 121 | Labour–Greens–Māori (61) |
| Talbot Mills[121] 1–10 Sep 2025 |
39 | 43 | 12 | 9 | 12 | 6* | 121 | Labour–Greens–Māori (61) |
| Taxpayers' Union–Curia[122] 31 Aug – 2 Sep 2025 |
42 | 42 | 13 | 8 | 10 | 6 | 120 | Labour–Greens–Māori (61) |
| Roy Morgan[123] 28 Jul – 24 Aug 2025 |
36 | 42 | 17 | 13 | 9 | 6*** | 123 | Labour–Greens–Māori (65) |
| Talbot Mills[124] 1–10 Aug 2025 |
39 | 42 | 13 | 10 | 11 | 6* | 121 | Labour–Greens–Māori (61) |
| 1 News–Verian[125] 2–6 Aug 2025 |
42 | 40 | 12 | 10 | 11 | 6* | 121 | National–ACT–NZ First (63) |
| Taxpayers' Union–Curia[126] 3–5 Aug 2025 |
40 | 43 | 12 | 11 | 10 | 6** | 122 | Hung parliament |
| Roy Morgan[127] 30 Jun – 27 Jul 2025 |
38 | 39 | 14 | 13 | 12 | 6** | 122 | National–ACT–NZ First (63) |
| Talbot Mills[128] 1–10 Jul 2025 |
39 | 42 | 15 | 10 | 9 | 6* | 121 | Labour–Greens–Māori (63) |
| Taxpayers' Union–Curia[129] 2–6 Jul 2025 |
42 | 39 | 12 | 11 | 12 | 6** | 122 | National–ACT–NZ First (65) |
| Roy Morgan[130] 26 May – 22 Jun 2025 |
40 | 37 | 14 | 15 | 8 | 6 | 120 | National–ACT–NZ First (63) |
| Taxpayers' Union–Curia[131] 7–9 Jun 2025 |
42 | 44 | 10 | 12 | 8 | 6** | 122 | National–ACT–NZ First (62) |
| RNZ–Reid Research[132] 23–30 May 2025 |
38 | 42 | 14 | 8 | 11 | 7 | 120 | Labour–Greens–Māori (63) |
| 1 News–Verian[133] 24–28 May 2025 |
43 | 37 | 15 | 10 | 10 | 6* | 121 | National–ACT–NZ First (63) |
| Roy Morgan[134] 28 Apr – 25 May 2025 |
40 | 37 | 14 | 15 | 8 | 6 | 120 | National–ACT–NZ First (63) |
| Taxpayers' Union–Curia[135] 30 Apr – 4 May 2025 |
42 | 41 | 11 | 12 | 9 | 6* | 121 | National–ACT–NZ First (63) |
| Roy Morgan[136] 24 Mar – 20 Apr 2025 |
39 | 36 | 17 | 11 | 11 | 6 | 120 | National–ACT–NZ First (61) |
| 1 News–Verian[137] 29 Mar – 2 Apr 2025 |
44 | 40 | 12 | 11 | 9 | 6** | 122 | National–ACT–NZ First (64) |
| Taxpayers' Union–Curia[138] 29 Mar – 1 Apr 2025 |
42 | 37 | 14 | 13 | 9 | 6* | 121 | National–ACT–NZ First (64) |
| RNZ–Reid Research[139] 21–27 Mar 2025 |
41 | 40 | 12 | 12 | 9 | 6 | 120 | National–ACT–NZ First (62) |
| Roy Morgan[140] 24 Feb – 23 Mar 2025 |
41 | 35 | 18 | 10 | 9 | 7 | 120 | Hung parliament |
| Talbot Mills[141] 1–10 Mar 2025 |
39 | 43 | 13 | 12 | 8 | 6* | 121 | Labour–Greens–Māori (62) |
| Taxpayers' Union–Curia[142] 2–4 Mar 2025 |
42 | 42 | 12 | 10 | 6 | 8 | 120 | Labour–Greens–Māori (62) |
| Roy Morgan[143] 27 Jan – 23 Feb 2025 |
38 | 36 | 20 | 14 | 8 | 6** | 122 | Labour–Greens–Māori (62) |
| 1 News–Verian[144] 3–7 Feb 2025 |
43 | 42 | 13 | 11 | 6 | 6* | 121 | Labour–Greens–Māori (61) |
| Taxpayers' Union–Curia[145] 2–4 Feb 2025 |
39 | 39 | 16 | 12 | 8 | 6 | 120 | Labour–Greens–Māori (61) |
| Talbot Mills[146] 7–27 Jan 2025 |
40 | 42 | 15 | 11 | 6 | 6 | 120 | Labour–Greens–Māori (63) |
| Roy Morgan[147] 2–26 Jan 2025 |
40 | 36 | 14 | 11 | 11 | 8 | 120 | National–ACT–NZ First (62) |
| Taxpayers' Union–Curia[148] 9–13 Jan 2025 |
38 | 39 | 12 | 14 | 10 | 7 | 120 | National–ACT–NZ First (62) |
| Roy Morgan[149] 25 Nov – 15 Dec 2024 |
39 | 32 | 17 | 16 | 9 | 7 | 120 | National–ACT–NZ First (64) |
| 1 News–Verian[150] 30 Nov – 4 Dec 2024 |
46 | 36 | 12 | 10 | 7 | 9 | 120 | National–ACT–NZ First (63) |
| Taxpayers' Union–Curia[151] 1–3 Dec 2024 |
44 | 34 | 11 | 17 | 7 | 7 | 120 | National–ACT (61) |
| Labour–Talbot Mills[152] 22–28 Nov 2024 |
39 | 40 | 12 | 12 | 8 | 9 | 120 | Labour–Greens–Māori (61) |
| The Post/ 26–27 Nov 2024 |
42 | 39 | 16 | 10 | 8 | 6* | 121 | Labour–Greens–Māori (61) |
| Roy Morgan[154] 28 Oct – 24 Nov 2024 |
37 | 36 | 17 | 11 | 8 | 11 | 120 | Labour–Greens–Māori (64) |
| Taxpayers' Union–Curia[155] 6–10 Nov 2024 |
48 | 39 | 11 | 11 | 8 | 6*** | 123 | National–ACT–NZ First (67) |
| Talbot Mills[156] 1–10 Nov 2024 |
42 | 41 | 12 | 12 | 9 | 6** | 122 | National–ACT–NZ First (63) |
| Roy Morgan[157] 23 Sep – 20 Oct 2024 |
39 | 37 | 18 | 11 | 9 | 6 | 120 | Labour–Greens–Māori (61) |
| 1 News–Verian[158] 5–9 Oct 2024 |
47 | 37 | 15 | 10 | 6 | 6* | 121 | National–ACT–NZ First (63) |
| Taxpayers' Union–Curia[159] 3–7 Oct 2024 |
44 | 38 | 13 | 12 | 9 | 6** | 122 | National–ACT–NZ First (65) |
| Roy Morgan[160] 26 Aug – 22 Sep 2024 |
47 | 29 | 17 | 13 | 9 | 6* | 121 | National–ACT–NZ First (69) |
| Taxpayers' Union–Curia[161] 8–10 Sep 2024 |
48 | 33 | 14 | 11 | 8 | 6 | 120 | National–ACT–NZ First (67) |
| Talbot Mills[162] 1–10 Sep 2024 |
46 | 39 | 12 | 10 | 8 | 6* | 121 | National–ACT–NZ First (64) |
| Roy Morgan[163] 29 Jul – 25 Aug 2024 |
45 | 33 | 16 | 12 | 9 | 6* | 121 | National–ACT–NZ First (66) |
| 1 News–Verian[164] 10–14 Aug 2024 |
49 | 38 | 14 | 8 | 7 | 6** | 122 | National–ACT–NZ First (64) |
| Roy Morgan[165] 24 Jun – 21 Jul 2024 |
41 | 31 | 18 | 14 | 8 | 8 | 120 | National–ACT–NZ First (63) |
| Taxpayers' Union–Curia[166] 4–8 Jul 2024 |
47 | 33 | 16 | 11 | 9 | 6** | 122 | National–ACT–NZ First (67) |
| Roy Morgan[167] 27 May – 23 Jun 2024 |
44 | 35 | 18 | 11 | 7 | 6* | 121 | National–ACT–NZ First (62) |
| 1 News–Verian[168] 15–19 Jun 2024 |
47 | 36 | 16 | 9 | 8 | 6** | 122 | National–ACT–NZ First (64) |
| Taxpayers' Union–Curia[169] 4–6 Jun 2024 |
44 | 36 | 16 | 12 | 7 | 6* | 121 | National–ACT–NZ First (63) |
| Roy Morgan[170] 22 Apr – 19 May 2024 |
42 | 38 | 17 | 12 | 7 | 6** | 122 | Hung parliament |
| Taxpayers' Union–Curia[171] 5–7 May 2024 |
47 | 37 | 13 | 12 | 7 | 6** | 122 | National–ACT–NZ First (66) |
| Talbot Mills[172] 30 Apr 2024 |
42 | 41 | 15 | 9 | 8 | 6* | 121 | Labour–Greens–Māori (62) |
| 1 News–Verian[173] 20–24 Apr 2024 |
48 | 40 | 18 | 9 | 0 | 6* | 121 | Labour–Greens–Māori (64) |
| Roy Morgan[174] 25 Mar – 21 Apr 2024 |
45 | 31 | 16 | 14 | 7 | 7 | 120 | National–ACT–NZ First (66) |
| Taxpayers' Union–Curia[175] 2–4 Apr 2024 |
47 | 32 | 18 | 9 | 8 | 6 | 120 | National–ACT–NZ First (64) |
| Roy Morgan[176] 29 Jan – 25 Feb 2024 |
45 | 27 | 19 | 15 | 9 | 5 | 120 | National–ACT–NZ First (69) |
| Talbot Mills[177] 1–10 Feb 2024 |
47 | 35 | 15 | 9 | 8 | 6 | 120 | National–ACT–NZ First (64) |
| Taxpayers' Union–Curia[178] 1–7 Feb 2024 |
49 | 34 | 11 | 17 | 6 | 6*** | 123 | National–ACT (66) |
| Roy Morgan[179] 8–28 Jan 2024 |
49 | 28 | 20 | 10 | 7 | 6 | 120 | National–ACT–NZ First (66) |
| Roy Morgan[180] Dec 2023 poll |
46 | 28 | 20 | 12 | 8 | 8** | 122 | National–ACT–NZ First (66) |
| Curia[181] 3–5 Dec 2023 poll |
46 | 36 | 14 | 8 | 10 | 6 | 120 | National–ACT-NZ First (64) |
| Taxpayers' Union–Curia[182] 1–6 Nov 2023 poll |
46 | 35 | 17 | 10 | 8 | 6** | 122 | National–ACT–NZ First (64) |
| 2023 election result[183] 14 Oct 2023 |
48 | 34 | 15 | 11 | 8 | 6** | 122 | National–ACT–NZ First (67) |
- * indicates an overhang seat
- Forecasted seats are calculated using the Electoral Commission's MMP seat allocation calculator, based on polling results.
Notes
- The 54th New Zealand Parliament, which expires naturally on 16 November 2026, is to be dissolved on 1 October.[3]
- Got 0.24% of the party vote in 2023 election
- Got 0.07% of the party vote in 2023 election
- Got 1.21% of the party vote in 2023 election
- Got 0.05% of the party vote in 2023 election
- Got 0.34% of the party vote in 2023 election
- Got 0.56% of the party vote in 2023 election
- As part of Freedoms New Zealand