2026–2027 El Niño event
Meteorological event
From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
The forecast for the 2026–2027 El Niño is of such severity and magnitude that it is referred to, colloquially, as a super El Niño and even by the superlative "Godzilla El Niño". The latter phrase was coined by NASA scientist Bill Patzert in 2015[1] vis-à-vis the historic 1997–1998 El Niño event, and has since gone from casual scientific parlance to public usage.[2]
.webp)
Data visualisation of sea surface temperature anomalies in the Pacific Ocean in August 2026, during the 2026–2027 El Niño event. | |
| Meteorological history | |
|---|---|
| Formed | Declared June 11, 2026 by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) |
| Dissipated | Ongoing |
| Overall effects | |
| Areas affected | The Pacific Ocean and surrounding areas |
Background
A weak La Niña event evolved to ENSO-neutral in early 2026, but by May was "rapidly transitioning" to El Niño, according to Columbia University's Climate School.[3][4] Computer modeling in late May by the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) suggested the development of an El Niño event was likely by the July through September peak of the Pacific hurricane season.[5] The Center for Climate Systems Research (CCSR) and the International Research Institute for Climate and Society (IRI) ENSO plume forecast gave a 98% probability of El Niño forming and a 97%-98% probability of continuing through the end of the year, a range Columbia called "remarkably high and narrow".[3]
On June 2 the United Nations World Meteorological Organization confirmed "that El Niño conditions are developing in the tropical Pacific and are expected to influence weather and climate patterns around the world in the months ahead."[6][7] The European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts released a forecast of a central equatorial Pacific Ocean temperature anomaly of 3–4 °C (5.4–7.2 °F), which would make it the strongest on record.[8][9]
The June 2026 global average sea surface temperatures reached an all-time record high, that year's spring temperatures having been exceeded only by the spring of 2024.[10] Also in that month the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) confirmed the emergence of a strong El Niño, giving it a 67% chance to becoming so intense by late fall and early winter to be one of the top ten on record.[11]
Timeline
April
- April 20 – Columbia University's Climate School reports that the weak La Niña event had transitioned into an ENSO-neutral state.[12]
May
- May 21 – Computer modeling by the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) suggested the development of an El Niño event was likely by the July through September peak of the Pacific hurricane season.[13]
June
- June 2 – The United Nations World Meteorological Organization (WMO) officially confirmed that El Niño conditions are actively developing in the tropical Pacific. This rapid transition follows a remarkably high 97–98% probability forecast from Columbia University's Climate School.[14]
- June 11 – A National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration notice stated that "El Niño conditions are present and expected to strengthen into the Northern Hemisphere winter 2026-27".[15]
July
August
- August 5 – The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) issued a global seasonal update confirming that a developing El Niño event—2026–2027 El Niño—combined with positive Indian Ocean Dipole conditions and record-warm global sea surface temperatures, is projected to drive above-normal temperatures globally throughout the August–October season.[16]
- August 22 - Global sea surface temperatures outside the polar regions reached a record daily average of 21.10 °C (69.98 °F) according to data from the Copernicus Climate Change Service, surpassing previous records driven by an intensifying El Niño and underlying global warming.[17]
Preparations
On 4 June 2026 the UN's Food and Agricultural Organization and World Food Programme issued their first ever joint appeal for donations to avert a global humanitarian crisis.[18] More generally the World Meteorological Organization (which noted that it does not use the word "super" because "it is not part of standardized operational classifications") also urged preparation.[19]
In mid-July the NOAA gave 97% odds that a strong El Niño would persist through spring 2027.[20][21]
The charity Americares, noting any strong El Niño's impact on the severity of heat, wildfires (and wildfire smoke),[22] flooding, and hurricanes, termed the expected scenario as "a global shuffling of risk".[23] Regional preparations perforce vary.[24][25] E.g., Southern California anticipates severe rain and flooding, with the harbringers of unusually severe king tides already occurring in August[26] whereas Australia anticipates drought and severe wildfires,[27] and India expects an erratic, drier[28] monsoon season.[29][30]
Areas of Africa are still recovering from the effects of the 2023–2024 El Niño event, variously suffering extremes of flood and drought. Oxfam is coordinating with other aid groups to shore up vital infrastructure such as electrical and water systems.[1] The UN's Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) and World Food Programme (WFP) are aiming to reach 8.8 million people across 22 high-risk countries" with anticipatory action funding for resilience projects to get ahead of the crisis.[31]
The top climate expert of the African Development Bank anticipates that "just this event will reduce heavily affected countries’ GDP by 1% to 2% on average", some $10–$20 billion across the continent, and prompt mass migration from the hardest hit areas.[32]
In Kenya, more directly affected by the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD), the Kenya Meteorological Services Authority issued an early alert in mid-June,[33] but government preparations were critiqued in late July by former chief justice and United Green Movement (UGM) party leader David Maraga.[34] The agency has since called on both national and county governments to promote climate-smart agriculture, improving drainage systems, strengthening early warning systems, and advising farmers on suitable crop varieties for wetter conditions.[35]
Autoridad del Canal de Panamá (ACP), drawing on its experience with the 2023–2024 El Niño event,[36] anticipates that "capacity restrictions will likely be implemented," namely limiting the number of slots for transit and/or the draft—a de facto measure of water displacement—TEU commercial shipping due to falling water levels.[37] (It also holds a once-a-day auction for vessels to skip the queue in lieu of a flat fee. The starting bids range from approximately $15,000 for smaller cargo vessels and $55,000 for the largest. In mid-August a 10,100 TEU won with a $4,000,000 bid to skip the 10-day backlog, double the average bid for the previous seven days.)[38]
Impact
On 22 August 2026, measurements from the Copernicus Climate Change Service recorded the highest average sea surface temperature between 60°N and 60°S in recorded history of 21.1°C, surpassing the prior record of 21.09°C set in March 2024. Copernicus attributed the record to heat added by El Niño in addition to "decades of human-driven warming".[39][40]
Satellite imagery from NASA’s Plankton, Aerosol, Cloud, ocean Ecosystem (PACE) Earth observation satellite recorded a significant decrease in concentrations of chlorophyll in the oceans, indicating a precipitous decline in phytoplankton concentrations.[41][42] Goddard Space Flight Centre oceanographers Graham Trolley and Matthew Kehrli stated that the suppression of nutrient-rich water to the surface due to weakened easterly trade winds and lower upwelling leads to decreased phytoplankton growth. This in turn lowers available food for zooplankton, thus lowering available food for fish, marine mammals, and seabirds higher on the food web.[41][43]
Africa
Environmental researchers of the Famine Early Warning Systems Network attributed Summer 2026 droughts in regions of eastern Africa, including Ethiopia and western Kenya, to the relatively earlier start and intensification of the 2026-2027 El Niño event. Poor maize and grain harvests in the region were attributed in part due to significantly lower rainfall impacted by the El Niño event.[44]
The United Nations' Food and Agriculture Organization reported that the El Niño caused a delayed and less precipitous rainy season in Sudan. This resulted in significantly lowered water levels in the Nile, significantly impacting Sudan's growing season and contributing to an ongoing famine in Sudan initially triggered by the concurrent Sudanese civil war.[45]
Central America
The El Niño event began to impact Panama during Summer 2026, causing at least 15,600 people to be impacted by "torrential rains and severe flooding" in its Caribbean and northern regions. The El Niño event caused a significant shortage of rainfall in its central and metropolitan regions, leading to water stress in eleven watersheds.[44][46] The resulting decrease in water levels contributed to record high Panama Canal transit slot fees.[47] In order to conserve limited water, the Panama Canal Authority plans to decrease the limit of daily Panama Canal transits from thirty-six to thirty-four starting 3 September, and further limit them to thirty-two starting on 15 September.[48]
Agriculture in Guatemala suffered increased stress on its crops due to El Niño-exacerbated increases in temperatures and rainfall shortages, reaching 85% below its July average.[44]
Europe
Heatwaves that impacted France are thought to have been in part caused by the developing El Niño, thus contributing to France's 2026 wildfire season being classified as the worst in the nation since 1949.[49][50][51][52][failed verification]
Middle East
On 27 August the Israel Meteorological Service predicted unprecedented weekend rainfall in Central Israel of up to 20 to 30 mm in one to three hours. It had issued a warning in July of such extreme weather events occurring due to the extreme El Niño.[53]
Southeast Asia
The sowing of crops such as rice was delayed across several nations in Southeast Asia, including the Philippines, Cambodia, Thailand, and Vietnam, due to shortages of rainfall in Summer 2026 attributed to the El Niño event.[44]
Drier conditions due to the El Niño contributed to roughly "230,000 acres of land" burning in wildfires across Indonesia in July alone, which was more than the prior six months together.[54][55] Wildfires burned "tens of thousands" of acres of land, including old-growth rainforest, in Kalimantan. The smoke from these wildfires led to an increase in respiratory issues in the affected areas, with the Indonesian Ministry of Health reporting that 5,000 people per week were visiting emergency rooms since July, increased from five hundred each week from January to June. Wildfires were also reported in Lombok, West Papua, and Sumatra.[56] The number of wildfire hotspots recorded in August reached over 3,500, the largest number recorded by the Indonesian Ministry of Forestry since 2015.[57][58]
Wildfire smoke from Indonesia reached Singapore and Malaysia, with Malaysian capital Kuala Lumpur momentarily becoming "the most polluted city on earth" during 25 August 2026 based on IQAir data.[56] Dozens of schools in Indonesia were temporary closed due to wildfire smoke.[59]
