Auckland Central in the 2020 New Zealand general election

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Auckland Central in the 2020 New Zealand general election

 2017
2023 
TurnoutCandidate vote: 35,985 (57.19%)
Party vote: 36,403 (57.85%)
 
Candidate Chlöe Swarbrick Helen White Emma Mellow
Party Green Labour National
Popular vote 12,631 11,563 9,775
Percentage 35.10% 32.13% 27.16%
Party vote 6,937 16,751 7,680
Percentage 19.06% 46.02% 21.10%

Margin of victory by suburb / locality

MP before election

Nikki Kaye
National

Elected MP

Chlöe Swarbrick
Green

An election took place in the Auckland Central general electorate on 17 October 2020 as part of the 2020 New Zealand general election. After incumbent MP, Nikki Kaye, declared she would not run for re-election, three main candidates emerged as potential victors; Labour candidate and employment lawyer Helen White, National candidate and communications manager Emma Mellow, and incumbent Green list MP Chlöe Swarbrick.

Two polls conducted before the election showed White ahead, with Mellow and Swarbrick coming second and third, respectively. The closeness in the polls between the three candidates lead to concerns of vote splitting on the left between White and Swarbrick, which might have led to a Mellow victory. In a surprising result, Swarbrick won with 35% of the vote, with White on 32% coming second, and Mellow on 27% coming third. The result was the second time the Greens had won an electorate, and the first time they had done so without the endorsement of a major party.

Kaye, who was briefly serving as deputy leader of the National Party, announced she would not seek re-election after Todd Muller stepped down from the party leadership. The 2017 election saw Kaye go up against Labour candidate Helen White, defeating White narrowly, with a margin of +5.38%.[1] White was re-selected as the Labour candidate for 2020. White, who grew up in Freemans Bay (a suburb within the electorate), was ranked 40th on the Labour list in 2017.[2]

The selection process for the National candidate narrowed down to two candidates, Emma Mellow and Nuwanthie Samarakone. This broke the party's rules for shortlisting candidates as the pre-selection committee was supposed to select five candidates from which local party delegates would vote on. National Party President Peter Goodfellow "absolutely and categorically" rejected that the process was manipulated.[3] A photo of Samarakone in a leotard was reported as being passed around party members; Samarakone said she had "no tolerance" for personal attacks.[4] Emma Mellow was selected as the National candidate following a ballot at Ponsonby Cruising Club where Samarakone and another candidate, Rob Thomas, were eliminated. National Party northern regional chair Andre Hunt "bluntly" criticised party members at the meeting for the "outrageous lies" that were spread about Samarakone.[5] The 30-year-old Mellow was a communications manager at ANZ[6] and described herself as a "young liberal female", the same public image that Kaye had successfully used to win the urban electorate.[7]

The Green Party selected Chlöe Swarbrick as their candidate. Swarbrick had been elected as a Green list MP at the 2017 election. She ran an unexpectedly successful campaign in the 2016 Auckland mayoral election, coming third with 7.33% of the vote. In November 2019, before she had been officially selected, political commentator Ben Thomas said a victory for her was "very unlikely".[6][8] Swarbrick herself said the race was "anyone's game".[9] Swarbrick had previously run in Maungakiekie, though then she wasn't running a "two-tick" campaign and was focusing on boosting the party vote.[10] The Opportunities Party initially had selected Joshua Love as their candidate, but after Love resigned,[11] Tuariki Delamere, former Minister of Immigration during the Fourth National Government, joined the party as their immigration spokesperson and contested the Auckland Central race.[12]

Candidates

Declared

Declined

  • Nikki Kaye, incumbent National MP for Auckland Central – announced she would resign and not contest the election.[16]

Campaign

White had a background as an employment lawyer, citing her 27 years experience in the field as evidence of her ability to solve people's problems.[17] She said that key issues for her were "good public transport, tackling homelessness and maintaining a strong health care system", and pointed to her close relationship with Jacinda Ardern, the popular[a] incumbent Prime Minister, as an advantage she brought to the electorate.[7] White described herself as "pragmatic".[18] White said the three biggest issues in the electorate were affordability, housing, and making the city more walkable, cyclable and public-transit oriented.[17] White's campaign also went after the Green Party's proposed wealth tax, hoping that wealthier voters would be put off by it.[19] She described the policy as "loopy".[18]

There were concerns of vote-splitting amongst the left-wing electorate, with both Labour and the Greens having popular candidates. White frequently pushed this message in hopes it would consolidate the vote around her as Labour is the major party on the left.[20] White called Swarbrick a "celebrity", and positioned Mellow as her main opponent. Swarbrick said that White was using similar tactics to misogynists that had attacked Ardern,[18] referring to comments from White that "[She would] ask [constituents] whether they're looking for a celebrity or someone to do this job very seriously."[10]

The suggestion that Labour do a deal with the Green Party similar to the deal between National and ACT in Epsom was ruled out by Ardern and White.[20] White said recapturing Auckland Central meant a lot to Labour.[18]

A fundraiser in early October for White featured former Labour Prime Minister Helen Clark, and Jennifer Ward-Lealand (2020 New Zealander of the Year) as master of ceremonies. The former prime minister spoke positively of White and expressed to attendees that she would be a voice for Auckland within Labour. Swarbrick had a campaign event on the same night nearby, a drag show with drag queen Anita Wigl'it as host.[21]

Mellow said that her generation, and the electorate generally, cared deeply about jobs and the future of the city including employment and infrastructure. She described the three biggest issues facing the electorate as jobs, investment in infrastructure (including a second harbour crossing), and the environment, specifically the Hauraki Gulf's water quality. When asked why she thought she was the best candidate Mellow pointed to her commercial experience and that she was "hard-working".[17]

According to Swarbrick, some main issues were homelessness[19] (especially among young people), and protecting the Hauraki Gulf. Swarbrick pointed to her track record as a Green MP in dealing with nuanced and complex issues. Swarbrick also said that as a member of a minor party she would have a more independent voice.[17] Swarbrick's campaign manager was 25-year-old Leroy Beckett, who had previously helped Phil Goff's mayoral re-election campaign in 2019.[22]

With the Greens often polling below the 5% minimum threshold, a win in the electorate was seen as a way to secure the continued presence of the party in parliament by some.[10][23][24] The party was also running a "two-tick" campaign in Tāmaki Makaurau, with Marama Davidson standing in Auckland's urban Māori electorate.[21]

Polling

Polls during the race showed White ahead with Mellow in second; Swarbrick was a close third.[25][26]

Electorate vote
Date[b] Polling organisation LAB NAT GRN NZF TOP ACT SNZ TEA IND
Helen White Emma MellowNikki Kaye Chlöe Swarbrick Denise Roche Jenny MarcroftFrank Edwards Tuariki DelamereMika Haka Felix PooleBrooke van Velden Vernon Tava Dominic Hoffman Dervan Joshua Love
24–30 Sep 2020 Q+A Colmar Brunton 35 30 N/A 26 N/A 1 N/A N/A 4N/A 2 1 0.4
September 2020 Newshub Nation–Reid Research 42.3 26.6 N/A 24.2 N/A 2.2 N/A 1.0 N/A 0.9N/A
23 Sep 2017 2017 election result 39.82 N/A 45.25 N/A 9.72 N/A 1.98 N/A 2.33 N/A 0.52 N/A N/A N/A
Party vote
Date[b] Polling organisation LAB NAT GRN ACT NZF TOP SNZ VNZ SCP
24–30 Sep 2020 Q+A Colmar Brunton 47 28 13 6 1.7 2.2 0.6 0.4 0.3
September 2020 Newshub Nation–Reid Research 56.2 23.1 12.1 3.9 1.6 1.4
23 Sep 2017 2017 election result 37.71 39.15 13.87 1.05 3.87 3.14 N/A N/A 0.01

Results

In a result that was described as extraordinary[19] and as a major election night upset,[27] Swarbrick clinched the election with 35.10% of the vote, defeating second place White by a margin of just +2.97%; Mellow came third. The win was the Green Party's second-ever electorate win, and unlike the party's previous win with Jeanette Fitzsimons in Coromandel in 1999, they had done so without an endorsement from a major party.[19] Swarbrick attributed her success to a strong volunteer campaign; according to her they had "1000 volunteers" and had spoken to "10,000 constituents".[19] Brigette Morten for RNZ said it was "rumoured to [be] 700 volunteers".[28] Green co-leader Marama Davidson said she was "beyond thrilled".[29] Chloe opined that she was confident her "two-tick" campaign had helped to increase the Green party vote.[26]

Predictions of vote-splitting among left wing candidates did not come to fruition, with both Swarbrick and White achieving more votes than Mellow.[19]

Results for Auckland Central[13]
Party Candidate Candidate vote % pp± Party vote % pp±
Green Chlöe Swarbrick 12,631 35.10 6,937 19.06 Increase5.19
Labour Helen White 11,563 32.13 Decrease7.42 16,751 46.02 Increase8.31
National Emma Mellow 9,775 27.16 7,680 21.10 Decrease18.05
ACT Felix Poole 588 1.63 2,724 7.48 Increase6.43
The Opportunities Party Tuariki Delamere 320 0.89 776 2.13 Decrease1.01
New Zealand First Jenny Marcroft 274 0.76 622 1.71 Increase2.16
New Conservatives Kevin Stitt 186 0.52 197 0.54 Increase0.45
Sustainable New Zealand Vernon Tava 120 0.33 59 0.16
Independent Joshua Love 73 0.20
TEA Party Dominic Hoffman Dervan 50 0.14 35 0.10
Independent Chris Sadler 23 0.06
Advance NZ 198 0.54
Aotearoa Legalise Cannabis Party 99 0.27 Increase0.04
HeartlandNZ 1 0.00
Māori Party 111 0.30 Decrease0.11
NZ Outdoors Party 15 0.05 Increase0.02
ONE Party 20 0.05
Social Credit 7 0.02 Increase0.01
Vision New Zealand 11 0.03
Informals
382
1.06
160 0.44
Turnout
35,985
57.19%[c] Increase6.18
36,403
57.85%[c] Increase5.64
Registered
43,627
69.34%[c] Increase3.24
Electoral population
62,919

By suburb / locality

The following is the polling location results grouped by suburb or locality[d][e]:

Results grouped by suburb / locality[30]
Suburb / locality Margin Swarbrick White Mellow Other Valid Informal Total
Aotea / Great Barrier Island 4.05 156 175 95 30 456 13 469
Auckland Central 6.54 3,230 2,671 2,131 415 8,447 105 8,552
Epsom 35.71 4 9 1 0 14 0 14
Freemans Bay 5.49 281 242 170 13 706 5 711
Grafton 11.46 484 348 296 52 1,180 7 1,187
Grey Lynn 7.82 544 435 367 40 1,386 7 1,393
Herne Bay 26.31 351 400 826 41 1,618 1 1,619
Hobsonville 5.88 4 7 6 0 17 0 17
Kingsland 25.57 161 82 54 10 307 2 309
Mount Albert 31.25 9 4 1 2 16 0 16
Mount Eden 15.11 198 130 102 18 448 2 450
Newmarket 9.63 276 206 205 33 720 7 727
Northcote 28.57 1 2 4 0 7 0 7
Ōmiha 13.82 33 51 34 4 122 1 123
Oneroa 11.24 1,246 1,688 827 143 3,904 28 3,932
Ostend 8.73 97 75 58 18 248 4 252
Palm Beach 5.80 37 52 44 4 137 1 138
Parnell 6.34 134 137 167 32 470 3 473
Point Chevalier 7.25 21 18 26 3 68 1 69
Ponsonby 6.15 1,528 1,472 1,837 143 4,980 43 5,023
Remuera 10.42 12 19 14 3 48 0 48
Saint Mary’s Bay 26.87 47 67 139 12 265 3 268
Sandringham 0.00 13 13 12 1 39 0 39
Surfdale 5.74 145 169 82 18 414 4 418
Waiheke Island 5.24 67 79 65 16 227 2 229
Westmere 16.67 2 3 1 0 6 0 6
Overseas 9.23 967 761 426 64 2,218 14 2,232
Special 4.57 2,579 2,247 1,784 519 7,129 129 7,258
Less than 6 50.00 4 1 1 0 6 0 6
Totals 2.97 12,631 11,563 9,775 1,634 35,603 382 35,985

Aftermath

Notes

References

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