Canadian federal election results in Hamilton, Burlington and Niagara

This is arguably the most competitive region in Ontario and one of the most competitive in all of Canada, as all three major parties have significant strength. Traditionally a conservative-leaning area outside of Hamilton and Welland, the Conservatives won the majority of seats in the 1970s and 1980s, aside from 1974 when the Liberals did well, taking six of nine. Before that the Liberals had dominated the area in the 1960s and from 1940 to 1953 with the Conservatives dominating in the two late 1950s elections and in the 1920s and 1930s.

The entire area went for the Liberals in their sweeps of Ontario from 1993 to 2000, with the popularity of local left-leaning Liberal Sheila Copps and the prominence of her parents (Victor and Geraldine) at the municipal level in Hamilton being major factors.

Some of this changed in 2004, the year that happened to coincide with Sheila Copps' departure from federal politics. In Hamilton proper, the New Democratic Party managed to pick up one seat from the Liberals in 2004 and picked up two more in 2006 to sweep urban Hamilton. The Conservatives picked up two seats from the Liberals in 2004 and four more in 2006, leaving the Liberals with only Welland in 2006.

The 2008 and 2011 elections saw the Liberals shutout of the area as the NDP retained its stronghold in Hamilton and added Welland from the Liberals for four seats. The Conservatives claimed the other six ridings in the area each election from 2006 to 2011.

In the 2015 Liberal election victory, the Conservatives held the three most rural ridings plus Niagara Falls, while the NDP retained two of its Hamilton seats, the two fully within the city, but lost its Welland seat (realigned and renamed to Niagara Centre) to the Liberals who claimed the other five seats in the area.

In recent decades, the Liberals have support throughout the region, but no real stronghold of support, which means there are no real safe seats for the party in this area. Several ridings are competitive 3-way districts most elections, although Hamilton's four seats and Niagara Centre generally switch between the Liberals and NDP.

Election	Liberal	Conservative	New Democratic	Green	People's	PC	Reform / Alliance	Others
1979	145,976 32.6%	—N/a	100,729 22.5%	—N/a	—N/a	198,244 44.3%	—N/a	1,917 0.4%
1980	158,449 36.7%	—N/a	110,720 25.6%	—N/a	—N/a	160,192 37.1%	—N/a	1,163 0.3%
1984	118,577 25.3%	—N/a	124,216 26.5%	1,679 0.4%	—N/a	221,866 47.4%	—N/a	1,235 0.3%
1988	167,838 35.7%	—N/a	107,028 22.8%	273 0.1%	—N/a	176,752 37.6%	—N/a	16,611 3.5%
1993	244,265 51.7%	—N/a	25,126 5.3%	558 0.1%	—N/a	78,934 16.7%	113,460 24.0%	10,274 2.2%
1997	229,069 45.7%	—N/a	50,785 10.1%	974 0.2%	—N/a	100,925 20.1%	112,371 22.4%	7,158 1.4%
2000	232,252 47.2%	—N/a	39,678 8.1%	2,906 0.6%	—N/a	77,385 15.7%	134,912 27.4%	3,448 0.7%
2004	208,507 39.7%	169,434 32.3%	121,262 23.1%	20,153 3.8%	—N/a	—N/a	—N/a	5,142 1.0%
2006	204,069 34.7%	211,512 36.0%	144,199 24.5%	24,144 4.1%	—N/a	—N/a	—N/a	3,703 0.6%
2008	146,954 27.5%	216,635 40.6%	128,508 24.1%	37,301 7.0%	—N/a	—N/a	—N/a	3,263 0.6%
2011	107,300 19.1%	262,850 46.9%	166,045 29.6%	18,684 3.3%	—N/a	—N/a	—N/a	4,255 0.8%
2015	237,146 39.1%	217,692 35.9%	129,043 21.3%	17,654 2.9%	—N/a	—N/a	—N/a	4,378 0.7%
2019	252,374 38.8%	206,438 31.8%	134,511 20.7%	39,282 6.0%	9,537 1.5%	—N/a	—N/a	7,648 1.2%
2021	238,257 37.8%	207,916 33.0%	129,147 20.5%	13,848 2.2%	39,278 6.2%	—N/a	—N/a	1,062 0.2%

Electoral district	Candidates										Incumbent
	Conservative		NDP		Liberal		Green		Other
Burlington		Mike Wallace 29,780 42.48%		David Laird 6,381 9.10%		Karina Gould 32,229 45.98%		Vince Fiorito 1,710 2.44%				Mike Wallace
Flamborough—Glanbrook		David Sweet 24,137 43.48%		Mike DiLivio 7,779 14.01%		Jennifer Stebbing 21,728 39.14%		David Allan Urquhart 1,866 3.36%			New District
Hamilton Centre		Yonatan Rozenszajn 6,018 14.65%		David Christopherson 18,719 45.56%		Anne Tennier 13,718 33.39%		Ute Schmid-Jones 1,778 4.33%		Maria Anastasiou (Ind.) 186 0.45%		David Christopherson
										Michael James Baldasaro (Mar.) 348 0.85%
										Rob Young (Libert.) 316 0.77%
Hamilton East— Stoney Creek		Diane Bubanko 12,715 25.26%		Wayne Marston 16,465 32.71%		Bob Bratina 19,622 38.99%		Erin Davis 1,305 2.59%		Wendell Fields (M-L) 55 0.11%		Wayne Marston
										Bob Mann (Comm.) 170 0.34%
Hamilton Mountain		Al Miles 12,991 25.70%		Scott Duvall 18,146 35.89%		Shaun Burt 16,933 33.49%		Raheem Aman 1,283 2.54%		Andrew James Caton (Libert.) 763 1.51%		Chris Charlton†
										Jim Enos (CHP) 438 0.87%
Hamilton West— Ancaster—Dundas		Vincent Samuel 19,821 31.83%		Alex Johnstone 10,131 16.27%		Filomena Tassi 29,694 47.68%		Peter Ormond 2,633 4.23%				David Sweet‡ Ancaster—Dundas— Flamborough—Westdale
Milton		Lisa Raitt 22,378 45.38%		Alex Anabusi 5,366 10.88%		Azim Rizvee 19,940 40.44%		Mini Batra 1,131 2.29%		Chris Jewell (Libert.) 493 1.00%	New District
Niagara Centre		Leanna Villella 16,248 29.71%		Malcolm Allen 17,218 31.49%		Vance Badawey 19,513 35.68%		David Clow 1,316 2.41%		Jody Di Bartolomeo (Animal All.) 291 0.53%		Malcolm Allen Welland
										Ron J. Walker (M-L) 96 0.18%
Niagara Falls		Rob Nicholson 27,235 42.09%		Carolynn Ioannoni 13,525 20.90%		Ron Planche 22,318 34.49%		Steven Soos 1,633 2.52%				Rob Nicholson
Niagara West		Dean Allison 24,732 48.82%		Nameer Rahman 5,802 11.45%		Phil Rose 16,581 32.73%		Sid Frere 1,511 2.98%		Allan de Roo (Libert.) 797 1.57%		Dean Allison Niagara West—Glanbrook
										Harold Jonker (CHP) 1,234 2.44%
St. Catharines		Rick Dykstra 21,637 37.57%		Susan Erskine-Fournier 9,511 16.51%		Chris Bittle 24,870 43.18%		Jim Fannon 1,488 2.58%		Saleh Waziruddin (Comm.) 85 0.15%		Rick Dykstra

Source:^[1]

Electoral district	Candidates												Incumbent
	Conservative		Liberal		NDP		Green		Christian Heritage		Other
Ancaster—Dundas— Flamborough—Westdale		David Sweet 30,240 51.25%		Dave Braden 14,594 24.74%		Nancy MacBain 10,956 18.57%		Peter Michael Ormond 2,963 5.02%				Jamilé Ghaddar (M-L) 77 0.13		David Sweet
												Anthony Giles (Libert.) 170 0.29
Burlington		Mike Wallace 32,958 54.16%		Alyssa Brierley 14,154 23.26%		David Laird 11,449 18.81%		Graham Reid Mayberry 2,151 3.53%				Elaine Baetz (M-L) 140 0.23%		Mike Wallace
Halton		Lisa Raitt 44,214 54.52%		Connie Laurin-Bowie 20,903 25.77%		Pat Heroux 12,960 15.98%		Judi Remigio 2,778 3.43%		Tony Rodrigues 249 0.31%				Lisa Raitt
Hamilton Centre		Jim Byron 11,020 26.36%		Anne Tennier 5,912 14.14%		David Christopherson 23,849 57.04%						Michael Baldasaro (Mar.) 780 1.87%		David Christopherson
												Lisa Nussey (M-L) 252 0.60%
Hamilton East— Stoney Creek		Brad Clark 17,567 36.19%		Michelle Stockwell 6,411 13.21%		Wayne Marston 21,931 45.18%		Dave Hart Dyke 1,450 2.99%				Wendell Fields (M-L) 95 0.20%		Wayne Marston
												Gord Hill (PC) 468 0.96%
												Bob Green Innes (CAP) 92 0.19%
												Bob Mann (Comm.) 138 0.28%
												Greg Pattinson (Libert.) 385 0.79%
Hamilton Mountain		Terry Anderson 17,936 33.05%		Marie Bountrogianni 8,787 16.19%		Chris Charlton 25,595 47.17%		Stephen Brotherson 1,505 2.77%		Jim Enos 270 0.50%		Henryk Adamiec (Ind.) 171 0.32%		Chris Charlton
Niagara Falls		Rob Nicholson 28,748 53.26%		Bev Hodgson 10,206 18.91%		Heather Kelley 12,681 23.49%		Shawn Willick 2,086 3.86%		Harold Jonker 259 0.48%				Rob Nicholson
Niagara West—Glanbrook		Dean Allison 33,701 57.25%		Stephen Bieda 8,699 14.78%		David Heatley 12,734 21.63%		Sid Frere 2,530 4.30%		Bryan Jongbloed 1,199 2.04%				Dean Allison
St. Catharines		Rick Dykstra 25,571 50.86%		Andrew Gill 10,358 20.60%		Mike Williams 11,973 23.82%		Jennifer Mooradian 1,924 3.83%		Dave Bylsma 357 0.71%		Saleh Waziruddin (Comm.) 91 0.18%		Rick Dykstra
Welland		Leanna Villella 20,895 40.24%		John Maloney 7,276 14.01%		Malcolm Allen 21,917 42.21%		Robin Williamson 1,297 2.50%		David Vangoolen 299 0.58%		Ray Game (Ind.) 169 0.33%		Malcolm Allen
												Ron Walker (M-L) 71 0.14%

Source:^[2]

Electoral district	Candidates										Incumbent
	Conservative		Liberal		NDP		Green		Other
Ancaster—Dundas—Flamborough—Westdale		David Sweet 26,297 46.50%		Arlene MacFarlane-VanderBeek 15,322 27.10%		Gordon Guyatt 9,632 17.03%		Peter Ormond 5,149 9.11%		Jamie Ghaddar (M-L) 148 0.26%		David Sweet
Burlington		Mike Wallace 28,614 48.60%		Paddy Torsney 19,577 33.25%		David Laird 6,597 11.21%		Marnie Mellish 4,083 6.94%				Mike Wallace
Halton		Lisa Raitt 32,986 47.50%		Garth Turner 25,136 36.19%		Robert Wagner 6,118 8.81%		Amy Collard 4,872 7.02%		Tony Rodrigues (CHP) 337 0.49%		Garth Turner
Hamilton Centre		Leon O'Connor 9,051 22.28%		Helen M. Wilson 7,164 17.63%		David Christopherson 20,010 49.25%		John Livingstone 3,625 8.92%		Anthony Giles (Libert.) 528 1.30%		David Christopherson
										Lisa Nussey (M-L) 126 0.31%
										Ryan Sparrow (Comm.) 125 0.31%
Hamilton East—Stoney Creek		Frank Rukavina 11,556 23.95%		Larry Di Ianni 13,445 27.89%		Wayne Marston 19,919 41.28%		Dave William Hart Dyke 2,142 4.44%		Sam Cino (Ind.) 323 0.67%		Wayne Marston
										Gord Hill (PC) 853 1.77%
Hamilton Mountain		Terry Anderson 16,010 30.66%		Tyler Banham 10,531 20.17%		Chris Charlton 22,796 43.65%		Stephen Brotherston 2,884 5.52%				Chris Charlton
Niagara Falls		Rob Nicholson 24,016 46.70%		Joyce Morocco 13,867 26.97%		Eric Gillespie 9,186 17.86%		Shawn Willick 4,356 8.47%				Rob Nicholson
Niagara West—Glanbrook		Dean Allison 28,089 51.98%		Heather Carter 12,955 23.97%		Dave Heatley 7,980 14.77%		Sid Frere 3,897 7.21%		Dave Bylsma (CHP) 1,118 2.07%		Dean Allison
St. Catharines		Rick Dykstra 23,474 45.90%		Walt Lastewka 14,652 28.65%		George N. Addison 9,428 18.43%		Jim Fannon 3,477 6.80%		Sam Hammond (Comm.) 113 0.22%		Rick Dykstra
Welland		Alf Kiers 16,542 32.32%		John Maloney 14,295 27.93%		Malcolm Allen 16,842 32.91%		Jennifer Mooradian 2,816 5.50%		Jody Di Bartolomeo (Ind.) 569 1.11%		John Maloney
										Ron Walker (M-L) 114 0.22%

Source:^[3]

Continuing the trend started in 2004, the Liberal lost all but one seat in the region but managed to arrive second in all the remaining 9 seats. The Conservatives and NDP managed to win 6 and 3 seats respectively but the Conservatives failed to arrive second in the 4 seats they lost and the NDP only arrived second in one riding.

Parties		1st	2nd	3rd	4th
	Conservative	6	0	4	0
	New Democratic	3	1	6	0
	Liberal	1	9	0	0
	Green	0	0	0	10

Electoral district	Candidates										Incumbent
	Liberal		Conservative		NDP		Green		Other
Ancaster—Dundas— Flamborough—Westdale		Russ Powers 21,656 34.51%		David Sweet 24,530 39.10%		Gordon Guyatt 13,376 21.32%		David Januczkowski 2,767 4.41%		Ben Cowie (Ind.) 303 0.48%		Russ Powers
										Jamilé Ghaddar (M-L) 112 0.18%
Burlington		Paddy Torsney 25,431 39.11%		Mike Wallace 28,030 43.11%		David Laird 8,090 12.44%		Rick Goldring 3,471 5.34%				Paddy Torsney
Halton		Gary Carr 28,680 41.44%		Garth Turner 30,577 44.18%		Anwar Naqvi 6,114 8.83%		Kyle Grice 3,843 5.55%				Gary Carr
Hamilton Centre		Javid Mirza 11,224 23.49%		Eliot Lewis Hill 9,696 20.29%		David Christopherson 24,503 51.29%		John Livingstone 2,022 4.23%		Tony Des Lauriers (CAP) 332 0.69%		David Christopherson
Hamilton East—Stoney Creek		Tony Valeri 18,880 35.16%		Frank Rukavina 13,581 25.29%		Wayne Marston 19,346 36.03%		Jo Pavlov 1,573 2.93%		Bob Mann (Comm.) 316 0.59%		Tony Valeri
Hamilton Mountain		Bill Kelly 18,704 31.87%		Don Graves 15,915 27.11%		Chris Charlton 21,970 37.43%		Susan Wadsworth 1,517 2.58%		Stephen Downey (CHP) 458 0.78%		Beth Phinney†
										Paul Lane (M-L) 132 0.22%
Niagara Falls		Gary Burroughs 20,092 34.53%		Rob Nicholson 23,485 40.36%		Wayne Gates 12,209 20.98%		Kay Green 2,402 4.13%				Rob Nicholson
Niagara West—Glanbrook		Heather Carter 17,712 30.68%		Dean Allison 27,351 47.38%		Dave Heatley 9,251 16.02%		Tom Ferguson 2,284 3.96%		David W. Bylsma (CHP) 1,132 1.96%		Dean Allison
St. Catharines		Walt Lastewka 21,423 37.05%		Richard Dykstra 21,669 37.47%		Jeff Burch 11,848 20.49%		Jim Fannon 2,305 3.99%		Bill Bylsma (CHP) 481 0.83%		Walt Lastewka
										Elaine Couto (M-L) 101 0.17%
Welland		John Maloney 20,267 35.53%		Mel Grunstein 16,678 29.23%		Jody Di Bartolomeo 17,492 30.66%		Brian Simpson 1,960 3.44%		Irma Ruiter (CHP) 539 0.94%		John Maloney
										Ron Walker (M-L) 113 0.20%

Source:^[4]

Parties		1st	2nd	3rd	4th
	Liberal	7	3	0	0
	Conservative	2	4	4	0
	New Democratic	1	3	6	0
	Green	0	0	0	10

Electoral district	Candidates												Incumbent
	Liberal		Conservative		NDP		Green		Christian Heritage		Other
Ancaster—Dundas—Flamborough—Westdale		Russ Powers 21,935 39.69%		David Sweet 19,135 34.63%		Gordon Guyatt 11,557 20.91%		David Januczkowski 2,636 4.77%						John Bryden§[a] Ancaster—Dundas—Flamborough—Aldershot
Burlington		Paddy Torsney 27,423 44.96%		Mike Wallace 23,389 38.35%		David Carter Laird 6,581 10.79%		Angela Reid 3,169 5.20%		John Herman Wubs 429 0.70%				Paddy Torsney
Halton		Gary Carr 27,362 48.35%		Dean Martin 21,704 38.35%		Anwar Naqvi 4,642 8.20%		Frank Marchetti 2,889 5.10%						Julian Reed†
Hamilton Centre		Stan Keyes 14,948 33.70%		Leon Patrick O'Connor 6,714 15.13%		David Christopherson 20,321 45.81%		Anne Marie Pavlov 1,422 3.21%		Stephen Downey 520 1.17%		Michael James Baldasaro (NA) 345 0.78%		Stan Keyes Hamilton West
												Jamilé Ghaddar (M-L) 91 0.21%
Hamilton East—Stoney Creek		Tony Valeri 18,417 37.74%		Fred Eisenberger 10,888 22.31%		Tony DePaulo 17,490 35.84%		Richard Safka 1,446 2.96%				Sam Cino (Ind.) 393 0.81% ———— Bob Mann (Comm.) 166 0.34%		Tony Valeri Stoney Creek
													merged district
														Sheila Copps§ Hamilton East
Hamilton Mountain		Beth Phinney 18,548 34.81%		Tom Jackson 15,590 29.26%		Chris Charlton 17,552 32.94%		Jo Pavlov 1,378 2.59%				Paul Lane (M-L) 214 0.40%		Beth Phinney
Niagara Falls		Victor Pietrangelo 18,745 36.48%		Rob Nicholson 19,882 38.70%		Wayne Gates 10,680 20.79%		Ted Mousseau 2,071 4.03%						Gary Pillitteri†
Niagara West—Glanbrook		Debbie Zimmerman 20,210 39.01%		Dean Allison 20,874 40.29%		Dave Heatley 7,681 14.82%		Tom Ferguson 1,761 3.40%		David Bylsma 1,107 2.14%		Phil Rose (CAP) 179 0.35%	new district
St. Catharines		Walt Lastewka 21,277 40.44%		Leo Bonomi 18,261 34.71%		Ted Mouradian 10,135 19.26%		Jim Fannon 1,927 3.66%		Linda Klassen 751 1.43%		Elaine Couto (M-L) 61 0.12%		Walt Lastewka
												Jane Elizabeth Paxton (CAP) 204 0.39%
Welland		John Maloney 19,642 39.63%		Mel Grunstein 12,997 26.22%		Jody Di Bartolomeo 14,623 29.50%		Ryan McLaughlin 1,454 2.93%		Irma D. Ruiter 735 1.48%		Ron Walker (M-L) 113 0.23%		John Maloney Erie—Lincoln
													merged district
														Tony Tirabassi§ Niagara Centre

• 
  Conservative Party of Canada
• 
  Green Party of Canada
• 
  Liberal Party of Canada
• 
  New Democratic Party

The Liberals recorded their third consecutive clean sweep of the region. The Canadian Alliance was much more competitive than the Reform Party in 1997, arriving second in all 11 ridings. Both the Progressive Conservatives and the NDP achieved worse results than in 1997.

Parties		1st	2nd	3rd	4th
	Liberal	11	0	0	0
	Alliance	0	11	0	0
	Progressive Conservative	0	0	8	3
	New Democratic	0	0	3	8

Electoral district	Candidates										Incumbent
	Liberal		Canadian Alliance		NDP		PC		Other
Ancaster—Dundas—Flamborough—Aldershot		John H. Bryden 19,921		Ray Pennings 15,272		Gordon Guyatt 3,756		Gerry Aggus 9,451				John H. Bryden Wentworth—Burlington
Burlington		Paddy Torsney 22,175		Don Pennell 11,500		Larry Mcmahon 1,722		Stephen Collinson 11,240	771			Paddy Torsney
Erie—Lincoln		John Maloney 17,054		Dean Allison 14,992		Jody Di Bartolomeo 2,423		David Hurren 5,174	756			John Maloney
Halton		Julian Reed 28,168		Tim Dobson 15,656		Brenda Dolling 2,633		Tom Kilmer 12,114	1,018			Julian Reed
Hamilton East		Sheila Copps 16,435		Joshua Conroy 6,039		Jim Stevenson 4,111		Steven Knight 3,321	1,191			Sheila Copps
Hamilton Mountain		Beth Phinney 22,536		Mike Scott 9,621		James Stephenson 4,387		John Smith 7,467	259			Beth Phinney
Hamilton West		Stan Keyes 21,273		Leon O'Connor 7,295		Catherine Hudson 5,300		Ron Blackie 5,024	1,462			Stan Keyes
Niagara Centre		Tony Tirabassi 21,641		Bernie Law 13,313		Mike Grimaldi 7,029		Joe Atkinson 4,893	439			Gilbert Parent
Niagara Falls		Gary Pillitteri 17,907		Mel Grunstein 11,999		Ed Booker 2,356		Tony Baldinelli 6,077	656			Gary Pillitteri
St. Catharines		Walt Lastewka 20,992		Randy Taylor Dumont 15,871		John Bacher 2,878		Kenneth David Atkinson 6,522	462			Walt Lastewka
Stoney Creek		Tony Valeri 24,150		Doug Conley 13,354		Mark Davies 3,083		Grant Howell 6,102	587			Tony Valeri

Parties		1st	2nd	3rd	4th
	Liberal	11	0	0	0
	Reform	0	5	5	1
	Progressive Conservative	0	4	6	1
	New Democratic	0	2	0	9

Electoral district	Candidates										Incumbent
	Liberal		Reform		NDP		PC		Other
Burlington		Paddy Torsney 22,042		Terry Lamping 8,662		Jim Hough 2,561		Mike Kuegle 16,344	352			Paddy Torsney
Erie—Lincoln		John Maloney 17,542		Jim Macinnis 12,788		Willem Hanrath 2,509		Gord Clare 6,317	1,796			John Maloney Erie
Halton		Julian Reed 26,017		Richard Malboeuf 12,221		Jay Jackson 2,452		Ralph Scholtens 13,778	600		New district
Hamilton East		Sheila Copps 16,991		Kevin Samuel Barber 5,716		Wayne Marston 6,870		Michael Hilson 3,913	848			Sheila Copps
Hamilton Mountain		Beth Phinney 21,128		Richard F. Gaasenbeek 8,154		Chris Charlton 7,440		John Smith 8,877	520			Beth Phinney
Hamilton West		Stan Keyes 20,951		Ken Griffith 6,285		Andrea Horwath 7,648		John Findlay 6,510	493			Stan Keyes
Niagara Centre		Gilbert Parent 24,115		Don Johnstone 12,053		James Wilson 5,510		Joe Atkinson 5,827	1,021			Gilbert Parent Welland—St. Catharines—Thorold
Niagara Falls		Gary Pillitteri 15,868		Mel Grunstein 10,986		John Cowan 4,052		Rob Nicholson 9,935	528			Gary Pillitteri
St. Catharines		Walt Lastewka 21,081		Rob Hesp 15,029		Ed Gould 4,657		Gregg Crealock 6,503	1,241			Walt Lastewka
Stoney Creek		Tony Valeri 23,750		Clay Downes 10,210		Peter Cassidy 3,392		Angie Tomasic 9,440	733			Tony Valeri Lincoln
Wentworth—Burlington		John H. Bryden 19,584		Allan Lonn 10,267		Jessica Brennan 3,694		Gerry Aggus 13,481				John H. Bryden Hamilton—Wentworth