Dickson in the 2025 Australian federal election
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3 May 2025
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Division of Dickson (Qld) in the House of Representatives | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| Registered | 119,401[1] | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Turnout | 92.36% ( 1.01) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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An election in the Queensland electorate of Dickson took place on 3 May 2025 as part of the 2025 Australian federal election.[2] Incumbent Liberal National Party (LNP) MP Peter Dutton, who was also serving as the leader of the opposition and the leader of the Liberal Party, stood for re-election against eight candidates.[3][4]
In what several media outlets described as a "stunning" result, Dutton lost his seat to Australian Labor Party (ALP) candidate Ali France after a 7.7% two-party-preferred vote swing.[5] It was the first time that a federal opposition leader had been defeated in their own seat.[6]
Peter Dutton was elected as the member for Dickson in 2001 after defeating sitting Labor MP Cheryl Kernot.[7] He was re-elected in 2004 with a positive swing, but came close to losing his seat in 2007, retaining it with a two-party-preferred (TPP) vote of 50.1% against Labor.[7]
At the 2019 federal election, Labor preselected former journalist and para-athlete Ali France as its candidate.[8] Dutton was re-elected with a 2.95% TPP swing after a stronger-than-expected showing for the LNP across Queensland.[7] In 2022, France contested Dickson again, with Dutton re-elected despite a 1.7% TPP swing.[9][10]
Candidates
Candidates are listed in the order they appeared on the ballot.[11]
| Party | Candidate | Background | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Family First | Suniti Hewett | Candidate for Morayfield at the 2024 state election[12] | |
| Labor | Ali France | Candidate for Dickson in 2019 and 2022[13] | |
| Greens | Vinnie Batten | Candidate for Dickson in 2022[14] | |
| One Nation | Joel Stevenson | Maintenance industrial electrician[15] | |
| Liberal National | Peter Dutton | Member for Dickson since 2001[16] | |
| Trumpet of Patriots | Michael Jessop | Businessman[17][18] | |
| Independent | Ellie Smith | Environmental consultant[19] | |
| Legalise Cannabis | David Zaloudek | Cannabis activist[20] | |
| Animal Justice | Maureen Brohman | Primary school teacher[21] | |
Liberal National
Dutton was seeking a ninth term as the member for Dickson.[22] He became leader of the opposition on 30 May 2022 after the resignation of former prime minister Scott Morrison.[23]
Labor
France was announced as Labor's candidate on 11 July 2024, holding a press conference with prime minister Anthony Albanese the following day.[24][25]
Independent
Environmental consultant Ellie Smith announced her candidacy on 27 January 2025.[26] She was endorsed by Climate 200, which supported 35 "teal independent" candidates at the 2025 federal election.[27][28]
Greens
On 23 December 2024, environmental scientist and para-athlete Vinnie Batten was announced as the Greens' candidate.[29] He contested the seat in 2022.[30]
Campaign
Albanese visited Dickson on the first day of the election campaign.[31] According to The Guardian Australia, Labor nonetheless did not initially consider the seat a priority, until they were alerted of polling by Climate 200, an organisation supporting independent candidate Ellie Smith. After Labor's own polling found the seat too close to call, they devoted more resources to it.[32]
On 18 April 2025, journalist Karen Middleton reported that the Liberals "[weren't] concerned" about the possibility of losing Dickson.[33] Australian Broadcasting Corporation (ABC) election analyst Casey Briggs listed Dickson as one of six "potential wildcard" electorates.[34]
Endorsements
Peter Dutton (LNP)
- Tony Abbott – Prime Minister (2013–2015)[35]
- John Howard – Prime Minister (1996–2007)[36]
- Scott Morrison – Prime Minister (2018–2022)[36]
- Nigel Farage – Leader of Reform UK and MP for Clacton (UK)[37]
- Paul Murray – Sky News Australia presenter[38]
Ali France (Labor)
- EMILY's List Australia[39]
- Peter Lawlor – former Labor member of the Queensland Legislative Assembly (candidate's father)[40]
Ellie Smith (independent)
- Climate 200[41]
- Dickson Decides[42]
- Vote Climate One (co-endorsement)[43]
Vinnie Batten (Greens)
- Vote Climate One (co-endorsement)[43]
David Zaloudek (Legalise Cannabis)
- Vote Climate One (co-endorsement)[43]
Maureen Brohman (Animal Justice)
- Vote Climate One (co-endorsement)[43]
Did not make specific endorsement
- Abbie Chatfield – media personality (supported voting against Dutton)[44]
- Hannah Ferguson – CEO of Cheek Media (supported voting against Dutton)[44]
Results
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | ±% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Liberal National | Peter Dutton | 36,628 | 34.69 | −7.38 | |
| Labor | Ali France | 35,502 | 33.63 | +1.93 | |
| Independent | Ellie Smith | 12,874 | 12.19 | +12.19 | |
| Greens | Vinnie Batten | 8,061 | 7.64 | −5.36 | |
| One Nation | Joel Stevenson | 4,429 | 4.19 | −1.17 | |
| Legalise Cannabis | David Zaloudek | 2,950 | 2.79 | +2.79 | |
| Family First | Suniti Hewett | 2,299 | 2.18 | +2.18 | |
| Trumpet of Patriots | Michael Jessop | 1,900 | 1.80 | +1.80 | |
| Animal Justice | Maureen Brohman | 936 | 0.89 | +0.89 | |
| Total formal votes | 105,579 | 95.76 | −0.36 | ||
| Informal votes | 4,676 | 4.24 | +0.36 | ||
| Turnout | 110,255 | 92.36 | +1.01 | ||
| Two-party-preferred result | |||||
| Labor | Ali France | 59,115 | 55.99 | +7.69 | |
| Liberal National | Peter Dutton | 46,464 | 44.01 | −7.69 | |
| Labor gain from Liberal National | Swing | +7.69 | |||
Opinion polling
| Date | Firm | Sample size |
Margin of error |
Primary vote | 2PP vote | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LNP | ALP | GRN | ONP | IND | OTH | LNP | ALP | ||||
| 3 May 2025 | 2025 federal election | 34.7% | 33.6% | 7.6% | 4.3% | 12.2% | 7.7% | 44.0% | 56.0% | ||
| 17–24 Apr 2025 | YouGov[47][48] | 253 | ±6% | 40.3% | 24.2% | 7.6% | 5.4% | 16.5% | 6.0%[a] | 55% | 45% |
| 18–23 Apr 2025 | DemosAU[b][49] | 1,053 | ±4.3% | 40% | 27% | 13% | 7% | 5% | 8%[c] | 53% | 47% |
| 10 Apr 2025 (released) | Freshwater Strategy[d][50] | N/a | N/a | N/a | N/a | N/a | N/a | N/a | N/a | 57% | 43% |
| 10 Apr 2025 (released) | uComms[e][50] | N/a | N/a | N/a | N/a | N/a | N/a | N/a | N/a | 48.3% | 51.7% |
| 9–10 Apr 2025 | uComms[f][50] | 854 | N/a | 37.6% | 24.2% | 10.9% | N/a | 12.0% | 4.6% | 48% | 52% |
| 27 Feb – 26 Mar 2025 | YouGov (MRP)[51] | 10,217 | N/a | 39.7% | 28.8% | 12.7% | 8.6% | 7.8% | 2.4% | 52.5% | 47.5% |
| 22 Jan – 12 Feb 2025 | YouGov (MRP)[52] | 8,732 | N/a | 41.3% | 28.2% | 12.3% | 8.8% | 8.2% | 1.2% | 53.9% | 46.1% |
| 29 Oct – 20 Nov 2024 | Accent/RedBridge (MRP)[53] | 4,909 | N/a | 48% | 33% | 6% | N/a | N/a | 12% | 56% | 44% |
| 10 Jul – 27 Aug 2024 | Accent/RedBridge (MRP)[54] | 5,976 | N/a | 42% | 30% | 9% | N/a | N/a | 19% | 55% | 45% |
| 21 May 2022 | 2022 federal election | 42.1% | 31.7% | 13% | 5.4% | 3.9% | 4.0% | 51.7% | 48.3% | ||
