Opinion polling for the 2025 Australian federal election

From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

In the lead-up to the 2025 Australian federal election, a number of polling companies conducted opinion polls for various news organisations. These polls collected data on parties' primary vote, leaders’ favourability, and contained an estimation of the two-party-preferred lead.

Primary vote

Two-party preferred

Voting intention

2025

Date Brand Interview
mode		 Sample
size		 Primary vote 2pp vote[a]
L/NP ALP GRN ONP TOP[b] OTH UND ALP L/NP
3 May 2025 Election[5] 31.8% 34.6% 12.2% 6.4% 1.9% 13.1% — 55.2% 44.8%
28 Apr – 2 May 2025 Roy Morgan[6] Online 1,368 34.5% 33% 13.5% 6.5% 2% 10.5% N/a 53% 47%
28 Apr - 1 May 2025 Ipsos[7] Online 2,574 33% 28% 12% 8% 2% 12% 5% 51% 49%
29 Apr – 1 May 2025 Freshwater Strategy[8] Online 2,055 37% 33% 12% 8% N/a 10% N/a 51.5% 48.5%
28 Apr – 1 May 2025 Newspoll[9] Online 1,270 34% 33% 13% 8% N/a 12% N/a 52.5% 47.5%
24 Apr – 1 May 2025 YouGov[10][11] Online 3,003 31.4% 31.1% 14.6% 8.5% 2.5% 11.9% N/a 52.2% 47.8%
27–30 Apr 2025 DemosAU[9] Online 4,100 33% 31% 12% 9% N/a 15% N/a 52% 48%
27–29 Apr 2025 DemosAU[12] Online 1,974 32% 29% 12% 9% N/a 18% N/a 51% 49%
24–29 Apr 2025 Redbridge/Accent[13] Online 1,011 34% 34% 12% 8% N/a 12% N/a 53% 47%
24–28 Apr 2025 Spectre Strategy[14][c] Online 2,000 34% 31% 14.5% 9.5% N/a 11% N/a 53% 47%
23–28 Apr 2025 Resolve Strategic[15] Telephone
/Online		 2,010 35% 31% 14% 7% N/a 13% N/a 53% 47%
24–27 Apr 2025 Essential[16] Online 2,163 34% 32% 13% 10% 2% 9% N/a 52.1% 47.9%
21–27 Apr 2025 Roy Morgan[17] Online 1,524 34.5% 34% 13% 7.5% 1.5% 9.5% N/a 53% 47%
27 Apr 2025 The fourth leaders' debate takes place
21–25 Apr 2025 Newspoll[18] Online 1,254 35% 34% 11% 8% N/a 12% N/a 52% 48%
1–25 Apr 2025 YouGov MRP[19] Online 10,822 31.1% 31.4% 12.6% 9.1% N/a 15.7% N/a 52.9% 47.1%
22–23 Apr 2025 DemosAU[20] Online 1,073 31% 29% 14% 9% 3% 14%[d] N/a 52% 48%
17–22 Apr 2025 YouGov[21] Online 1,500 31% 33.5% 14% 10.5% 2% 9% N/a 53.5% 46.5%
22 Apr 2025 The third leaders' debate takes place and early voting begins
14–20 Apr 2025 Roy Morgan[22] Online 1,605 34% 34.5% 14.5% 6% 0.5% 11% N/a 55.5% 44.5%
14–17 Apr 2025 Newspoll[23] Online 1,263 35% 34% 12% 7% N/a 12% N/a 52% 48%
14–16 Apr 2025 Freshwater Strategy[24] Online 1,062 39% 32% 12% N/a N/a 17% N/a 50% 50%
16 Apr 2025 The second leaders' debate takes place
11–15 Apr 2025 YouGov[25] Online 1,506 33% 33% 13% 7% 2% 12% N/a 53% 47%
9–14 Apr 2025 Essential[26] Online 2,142 32% 31% 13% 9% 2% 9% 4% 50% 45%
9–13 Apr 2025 Resolve Strategic[27] Online 1,642 34% 31% 13% 6% N/a 17% N/a 53.5% 46.5%
7–13 Apr 2025 Roy Morgan[28] Online 1,708 33.5% 32% 14.5% 6% 1% 13% N/a 54.5% 45.5%
7–10 Apr 2025 Newspoll[29] Online 1,271 35% 33% 12% 8% N/a 12% N/a 52% 48%
4–10 Apr 2025 YouGov[30] Online 1,505 33.5% 32.0% 13.0% 8.5% 1.0% 12.0% N/a 52.5% 47.5%
8 Apr 2025 The first leaders' debate takes place
31 Mar – 4 Apr 2025 Newspoll[31] Online 1,250 36% 33% 12% 7% N/a 12% N/a 52% 48%
31 Mar – 4 Apr 2025 Roy Morgan[32] Online 1,481 33% 32.5% 13.5% 6% 1.5% 13.5% N/a 53.5% 46.5%
28 Mar – 3 Apr 2025 YouGov[33] Online 1,622 35% 30% 13% 7% 2% 13% N/a 51% 49%
28 Mar – 1 Apr 2025 Redbridge/Accent[34][35] Online 1,006 36% 33% 12% N/a N/a 19% N/a 52% 48%
28–30 Mar 2025 Freshwater Strategy[36] Online 1,059 39% 32% 12% N/a N/a 17% N/a 49% 51%
26–30 Mar 2025 Resolve Strategic[37] Online 3,237 37% 29% 13% 7% N/a 14% N/a 50% 50%
26–30 Mar 2025 Essential[26] Online 1,100 34% 30% 12% 9% 2% 8% 5% 48% 47%
24–30 Mar 2025 Roy Morgan[38] Online 1,377 35% 32% 13% 5.5% N/a 14.5% N/a 53% 47%
27–29 Mar 2025 Newspoll[39] Online 1,249 37% 33% 12% 6% N/a 12% N/a 51% 49%
28 Mar 2025 The 2025 Australian federal election is called for 3 May
27 Feb – 26 Mar 2025 YouGov MRP[40] Online 10,217 35.5% 29.8% 13.2% 9.3% N/a 12.2%[e] N/a 50.2% 49.8%
13–24 Mar 2025 Redbridge/Accent[41] Online 2,039 38% 34% 11% N/a N/a 17% N/a 51% 49%
17–23 Mar 2025 Roy Morgan[42] Online 1,683 35.5% 33.5% 12.5% 4% N/a 14.5% N/a 53% 47%
14–19 Mar 2025 YouGov[43] Online 1,500 37% 31% 13% 7% 1% 11% N/a 50% 50%
12–16 Mar 2025 Essential[44] Online 2,256 35% 29% 12% 8% 1%[f] 9% 6% 47% 47%
10–16 Mar 2025 Roy Morgan[46] Online 2,097 34% 32.5% 13.5% 5% N/a 15% N/a 54.5% 45.5%
13–15 Mar 2025 Freshwater Strategy[47] Online 1,051 39% 31% 14% N/a N/a 16% N/a 49% 51%
7–13 Mar 2025 YouGov[48] Online 1,526 36% 31% 13.5% 7.5% 1% 11% N/a 51% 49%
3–11 Mar 2025 Redbridge/Accent[49] Online 2,007 37% 32% 12% N/a N/a 19% N/a 51% 49%
3–9 Mar 2025 Roy Morgan[50] Online 1,719 37% 30% 13.5% 5% N/a 14.5% N/a 51.5% 48.5%
3–7 Mar 2025 Newspoll[51] Online 1,255 39% 32% 12% 7% N/a 10% N/a 49% 51%
28 Feb – 6 Mar 2025 YouGov[52] Online 1,504 36% 31% 13% 7% 1% 12% N/a 51% 49%
26 Feb – 2 Mar 2025 Essential[53] Online 1,150 35% 29% 13% 8% 1%[f] 10% 5% 47% 48%
24 Feb – 2 Mar 2025 Roy Morgan[54] Online 1,673 40% 28.5% 13.5% 4% N/a 14% N/a 49.5% 50.5%
21–27 Feb 2025 YouGov[55] Online 1,501 37% 28% 14% 8% 1% 12% N/a 49% 51%
20–25 Feb 2025 RedBridge/Accent[56][g] Online 1,002 41% 34% 12% N/a N/a 13% N/a 49.5% 50.5%
21–23 Feb 2025 Freshwater Strategy[57] Online 1,038 41% 31% 13% N/a N/a 15% N/a 48% 52%
18–23 Feb 2025 Resolve Strategic[58] Online 1,506 39% 25% 13% 9% N/a 13% N/a 45% 55%
17–23 Feb 2025 Roy Morgan[59] Online 1,666 36.5% 31.5% 13.5% 5% N/a 13.5% N/a 51% 49%
12–16 Feb 2025 Essential[53] Online 1,146 35% 30% 12% 9% 1%[f] 9% 4% 48% 48%
10–16 Feb 2025 Roy Morgan[3] Online 1,666 39.5% 28% 12.5% 5.5% N/a 14.5% N/a 48.5% 51.5%
10–14 Feb 2025 Newspoll[60] Online 1,244 38% 31% 12% 7% N/a 12% N/a 49% 51%
22 Jan – 12 Feb 2025 YouGov MRP[61] Online 8,732 37.4% 29.1% 12.7% 9.1% N/a 11.7%[h] N/a 48.9% 51.1%
4–11 Feb 2025 RedBridge/Accent[62][i] Online 1,002 43% 33% 12% N/a N/a 12% N/a 48% 52%
3–9 Feb 2025 Roy Morgan[63] Online 1,688 40.5% 29% 11% 4% N/a 15.5% N/a 48.5% 51.5%
3–7 Feb 2025 RedBridge Group[64] Online 1,013 40% 31% 11% N/a N/a 18% N/a 48.5% 51.5%
29 Jan – 3 Feb 2025 Essential[53] Online 1,150 36% 30% 12% 8% 1%[f] 9% 4% 47% 49%
27 Jan – 2 Feb 2025 Roy Morgan[65] Online 1,694 38.5% 30% 11.5% 5.5% N/a 14.5% N/a 50% 50%
28 Jan – 1 Feb 2025 DemosAU[66] Online 1,238 38% 33% 12% 7% N/a 10% 5% 50% 50%
20–26 Jan 2025 Roy Morgan[67] Online 1,567 40.5% 29.5% 11.5% 6% N/a 12.5% N/a 48% 52%
20–24 Jan 2025 Newspoll[68] Online 1,259 39% 31% 12% 7% N/a 11% N/a 49% 51%
15–21 Jan 2025 Resolve Strategic[69] Online 1,616 38% 27% 13% 7% N/a 16% N/a 48% 52%
17–19 Jan 2025 Freshwater Strategy[70] Online 1,063 40% 32% 13% N/a N/a 15% N/a 49% 51%
15–19 Jan 2025 Essential[53] Online 1,132 37% 30% 12% 7% 2%[f] 7% 5% 47% 48%
13–19 Jan 2025 Roy Morgan[71] Online 1,564 42% 28.5% 13% 4% N/a 12.5% N/a 48% 52%
9–15 Jan 2025 YouGov[72] Online 1,504 39% 32% 12% 7% N/a 10% N/a 49% 51%
6–12 Jan 2025 Roy Morgan[73] Online 1,721 40.5% 30% 12.5% 4.5% N/a 12.5% N/a 48.5% 51.5%
30 Dec – 5 Jan 2025 Roy Morgan[74] Online 1,446 40.5% 31% 12% 3.5% N/a 13% N/a 47% 53%

2024

Date Brand Interview
mode		 Sample
size		 Primary vote 2pp vote[a]
L/NP ALP GRN ONP UAP OTH UND ALP L/NP
13–15 Dec 2024 Freshwater Strategy[75] Online 1,051 40% 30% 14% N/a N/a 16% N/a 49% 51%
12–15 Dec 2024 Essential[53] Online 1,151 35% 30% 13% 6% 1% 11% 5% 47% 48%
9–15 Dec 2024 Roy Morgan[76] Online 1,672 41% 27.5% 12.5% 5% N/a 14% N/a 48% 52%
4–8 Dec 2024 Resolve Strategic[77] Online 1,604 38% 27% 12% 7% N/a 16% N/a 49% 51%
2–8 Dec 2024 Roy Morgan[78] Online 1,653 38% 28% 13% 6.5% N/a 14.5% N/a 48% 52%
2–6 Dec 2024 Newspoll[79] Online 1,258 39% 33% 11% 7% N/a 10% N/a 50% 50%
27 Nov – 1 Dec 2024 Essential[53] Online 1,123 35% 32% 11% 8% 1% 9% 5% 47% 48%
25 Nov – 1 Dec 2024 Roy Morgan[80] Online 1,666 38.5% 30% 12.5% 6.5% N/a 12.5% N/a 49% 51%
18–24 Nov 2024 Roy Morgan[81] Online 1,663 37% 31.5% 12.5% 6.5% N/a 12.5% N/a 51% 49%
19–21 Nov 2024 DemosAU[82] Online 1,038 38% 32% 12% 7% N/a 11% N/a 50% 50%
15–21 Nov 2024 YouGov[83] Online 1,515 38% 30% 13% 9% N/a 10% N/a 50% 50%
29 Oct – 20 Nov 2024 RedBridge Group[84] Online 4,909 39% 31% 11% N/a N/a 19% N/a 49% 51%
13–18 Nov 2024 Essential[53] Online 1,206 35% 30% 13% 7% 2% 8% 5% 48% 47%
15–17 Nov 2024 Freshwater Strategy[85] Online 1,046 40% 30% 14% N/a N/a 16% N/a 49% 51%
11–17 Nov 2024 Roy Morgan[86] Online 1,675 39% 29% 13.5% 6.5% N/a 12% N/a 49% 51%
6–13 Nov 2024 RedBridge Group[87] Online 2,011 39% 34% 11% N/a N/a 16% N/a 50% 50%
5–10 Nov 2024 Resolve Strategic[88][89] Online 1,621 39% 30% 11% 5% N/a 15% N/a 49% 51%
4–10 Nov 2024 Roy Morgan[90] Online 1,665 37.5% 30.5% 12.5% 6.5% N/a 13% N/a 49.5% 50.5%
4–8 Nov 2024 Newspoll[91] Online 1,261 40% 33% 11% 5% N/a 11% N/a 49% 51%
30 Oct – 3 Nov 2024 Essential[53] Online 1,131 34% 31% 12% 9% 2% 8% 5% 47% 49%
28 Oct – 3 Nov 2024 Roy Morgan[92] Online 1,651 38% 30.5% 14% 6% N/a 11.5% N/a 49% 51%
21–27 Oct 2024 Roy Morgan[93] Online 1,687 37.5% 30% 14% 5.5% N/a 13% N/a 50.5% 49.5%
14–25 Oct 2024 ANU[94] Online 3,622 38.2% 31.8% 11.8% N/a N/a N/a 9.5% 50% 50%
18–20 Oct 2024 Freshwater Strategy[95] Online 1,034 41% 30% 13% N/a N/a 16% N/a 49% 51%
16–20 Oct 2024 Essential[53] Online 1,140 35% 28% 12% 7% 2% 9% 6% 46% 48%
14–20 Oct 2024 Roy Morgan[96] Online 1,687 36.5% 32% 13.5% 5.5% N/a 12.5% N/a 52% 48%
7–13 Oct 2024 Roy Morgan[97] Online 1,697 37.5% 30% 14% 6% N/a 12.5% N/a 50% 50%
7–11 Oct 2024 Newspoll[98] Online 1,258 38% 31% 12% 7% N/a 12% N/a 49% 51%
2–6 Oct 2024 Essential[53] Online 1,139 34% 32% 12% 8% 1% 9% 5% 49% 47%
30 Sep – 6 Oct 2024 Roy Morgan[99] Online 1,697 37.5% 31.5% 12.5% 5.5% N/a 13% N/a 50% 50%
1–5 Oct 2024 Resolve Strategic[100] Online 1,606 38% 30% 12% 5% N/a 15% N/a 50% 50%
23–29 Sep 2024 Roy Morgan[101] Online 1,668 38% 30% 13.5% 4.5% N/a 14% N/a 49% 51%
18–22 Sep 2024 Essential[53] Online 1,117 35% 29% 12% 8% 2% 9% 5% 47% 48%
16–22 Sep 2024 Roy Morgan[102] Online 1,662 37.5% 32% 12.5% 5% N/a 13% N/a 50.5% 49.5%
16–20 Sep 2024 Newspoll[103] Online 1,249 38% 31% 13% 6% N/a 12% N/a 50% 50%
13–19 Sep 2024 YouGov[104] Online 1,619 39% 30% 14% 7% N/a 10% N/a 50% 50%
13–15 Sep 2024 Freshwater Strategy[105] Online 1,057 42% 30% 13% N/a N/a 15% N/a 48% 52%
9–15 Sep 2024 Roy Morgan[106] Online 1,634 37.5% 30.5% 12.5% 5.5% N/a 14% N/a 50.5% 49.5%
2–8 Sep 2024 Roy Morgan[107] Online 1,703 36.5% 30% 14.5% 6% N/a 13% N/a 51% 49%
3–7 Sep 2024 Essential[53] Online 1,132 35% 30% 13% 8% 1% 8% 5% 48% 48%
3–7 Sep 2024 Resolve Strategic[108] Online 1,614 37% 28% 13% 6% 1% 15% N/a 50% 50%
26 Aug – 1 Sep 2024 Roy Morgan[109] Online 1,697 36% 30.5% 13% 6% N/a 14.5% N/a 50.5% 49.5%
26–30 Aug 2024 Newspoll[110] Online 1,263 38% 32% 12% 7% N/a 11% N/a 50% 50%
6–29 Aug 2024 Wolf & Smith[111][112][113] Online 10,239 36% 29% 13% 6% N/a 15% N/a 51% 49%
23–28 Aug 2024 YouGov[114] Online 1,543 37% 32% 13% 8% N/a 10% N/a 50% 50%
20–27 Aug 2024 RedBridge Group[115] Online 2,017 38% 33% 12% N/a N/a 17% N/a 50.5% 49.5%
10 Jul – 27 Aug 2024 RedBridge Group[112][116][117] Online 5,976 38% 32% 12% N/a N/a 18% N/a 50% 50%
19–25 Aug 2024 Roy Morgan[118] Online 1,701 39.5% 29.5% 13% 4% N/a 14% N/a 49.5% 50.5%
20–24 Aug 2024 Essential[53] Online 1,129 33% 29% 13% 7% 1% 11% 6% 48% 46%
16–18 Aug 2024 Freshwater Strategy[119] Online 1,061 41% 32% 12% N/a N/a 15% N/a 49% 51%
12–18 Aug 2024 Roy Morgan[120] Online 1,698 38.5% 30.5% 13.5% 4% N/a 13.5% N/a 50.5% 49.5%
8–11 Aug 2024 Essential[53] Online 1,132 34% 28% 14% 7% 1% 9% 6% 47% 47%
7–11 Aug 2024 Resolve Strategic[121] Online 1,607 37% 29% 13% 6% 2% 13% N/a 50% 50%
5–11 Aug 2024 Roy Morgan[122] Online 1,671 38% 29.5% 14% 5% N/a 13.5% N/a 50% 50%
5–9 Aug 2024 Newspoll[123] Online 1,266 39% 32% 12% 6% N/a 11% N/a 50% 50%
29 Jul – 4 Aug 2024 Roy Morgan[124] Online 1,655 37% 30.5% 12% 5.5% N/a 15% N/a 51.5% 48.5%
24–28 Jul 2024 Essential[53] Online 1,137 34% 32% 11% 7% 2% 9% 6% 47% 46%
22–28 Jul 2024 Roy Morgan[125] Online 1,652 37.5% 30.5% 13% 6.5% N/a 12.5% N/a 50.5% 49.5%
19–21 Jul 2024 Freshwater Strategy[126] Online 1,060 40% 31% 13% N/a N/a 16% N/a 49% 51%
15–21 Jul 2024 Roy Morgan[127] Online 1,752 39.5% 31.5% 13% 5% N/a 11% N/a 49% 51%
15–19 Jul 2024 Newspoll[128] Online 1,258 38% 33% 13% 6% N/a 10% N/a 51% 49%
10–19 Jul 2024 RedBridge Group[129] Online 1,505 41% 32% 11% N/a N/a 16% N/a 48.5% 51.5%
12–17 Jul 2024 YouGov[130] Online 1,528 38% 31% 13% 7% N/a 11% N/a 51% 49%
10–14 Jul 2024 Essential[53] Online 1,122 33% 29% 13% 8% 3% 9% 6% 46% 48%
8–14 Jul 2024 Roy Morgan[131] Online 1,758 37.5% 31% 12.5% 5% N/a 14% N/a 49.5% 50.5%
10–13 Jul 2024 Resolve Strategic[132] Online 1,603 38% 28% 13% 6% 1% 13% N/a 50% 50%
1–7 Jul 2024 Roy Morgan[133] Online 1,723 39.5% 28.5% 13.5% 5% N/a 13.5% N/a 48% 52%
26–30 Jun 2024 Essential[53] Online 1,141 33% 30% 12% 7% 1% 10% 7% 46% 47%
24–30 Jun 2024 Roy Morgan[134] Online 1,708 36.5% 31.5% 13% 4.5% N/a 14.5% N/a 51% 49%
24–28 Jun 2024 Newspoll[135] Online 1,260 36% 32% 13% 7% N/a 12% N/a 51% 49%
17–23 Jun 2024 Roy Morgan[136] Online 1,696 37% 31.5% 13% 6% N/a 12.5% N/a 51% 49%
14–16 Jun 2024 Freshwater Strategy[137] Online 1,060 40% 32% 13% N/a N/a 15% N/a 50% 50%
12–16 Jun 2024 Essential[53] Online 1,181 32% 31% 13% 8% 1% 9% 6% 48% 46%
10–16 Jun 2024 Roy Morgan[138] Online 1,724 38% 29.5% 13.5% 5% N/a 14% N/a 50% 50%
11–15 Jun 2024 Resolve Strategic[139] Online 1,607 36% 28% 14% 6% 1% 15% N/a 51% 49%
3–9 Jun 2024 Roy Morgan[140] Online 1,687 35% 30.5% 15.5% 5.5% N/a 13.5% N/a 53.5% 46.5%
3–7 Jun 2024 Newspoll[141] Online 1,232 39% 33% 11% 7% N/a 10% N/a 50% 50%
31 May – 4 Jun 2024 YouGov[142] Online 1,500 38% 30% 14% 8% N/a 10% N/a 50% 50%
29 May – 2 Jun 2024 Essential[53] Online 1,160 36% 32% 13% 5% 3% 8% 4% 48% 48%
27 May – 2 Jun 2024 Roy Morgan[143] Online 1,579 36% 31% 14% 4.5% N/a 14.5% N/a 52% 48%
20–26 May 2024 Roy Morgan[144] Online 1,488 37% 28.5% 15% 6% N/a 13.5% N/a 48.5% 51.5%
17–19 May 2024 Freshwater Strategy[145] Online 1,056 40% 32% 14% N/a N/a 14% N/a 50% 50%
16–19 May 2024 Essential[53] Online 1,149 34% 31% 10% 8% 1% 8% 6% 46% 47%
15–19 May 2024 Resolve Strategic[146] Online 1,602 36% 29% 12% 7% 2% 14% N/a 50% 50%
13–19 May 2024 Roy Morgan[147] Online 1,674 37% 30.5% 14.5% 5.5% N/a 12.5% N/a 50.5% 49.5%
16–18 May 2024 Newspoll[148] Online 1,280 37% 34% 13% 7% N/a 9% N/a 52% 48%
10–14 May 2024 YouGov[149] Online 1,506 38% 30% 13% 8% N/a 11% N/a 50% 50%
6–12 May 2024 Roy Morgan[150] Online 1,654 37% 32% 13.5% 5.5% N/a 12% N/a 52% 48%
1–5 May 2024 Essential[53] Online 1,150 34% 31% 13% 7% 1% 7% 7% 46% 47%
29 Apr – 5 May 2024 Roy Morgan[151] Online 1,666 37% 30% 13% 6% N/a 14% N/a 52% 48%
22–28 Apr 2024 Roy Morgan[152] Online 1,719 36.5% 31.5% 14% 5.5% N/a 12.5% N/a 52% 48%
19–23 Apr 2024 YouGov[153] Online 1,514 36% 33% 13% 8% N/a 10% N/a 52% 48%
17–21 Apr 2024 Essential[53] Online 1,145 35% 31% 11% 9% 1% 9% 4% 47% 49%
17–21 Apr 2024 Resolve Strategic[154] Online 1,610 36% 30% 13% 5% 2% 14% N/a 50% 50%
15–21 Apr 2024 Roy Morgan[155] Online 1,617 35.5% 30.5% 16% 5.5% N/a 12.5% N/a 52% 48%
12–21 Apr 2024 RedBridge Group[156] Online 1,529 37% 33% 12% 7% N/a 11% N/a 52% 48%
15–18 Apr 2024 Newspoll[157] Online 1,236 38% 33% 12% 7% N/a 10% N/a 51% 49%
12–14 Apr 2024 Freshwater Strategy[158] Online 1,055 40% 31% 13% N/a N/a 16% N/a 50% 50%
8–14 Apr 2024 Roy Morgan[159] Online 1,706 38.5% 30% 13.5% 5.5% N/a 12.5% N/a 49% 51%
13 Apr 2024 The Liberals are re-elected in the 2024 Cook by-election
3–7 Apr 2024 Essential[53] Online 1,165 34% 29% 14% 6% 2% 8% 6% 48% 46%
1–7 Apr 2024 Roy Morgan[160] Online 1,731 38% 29.5% 13.5% 6% N/a 13% N/a 49.5% 50.5%
25–31 Mar 2024 Roy Morgan[161] Online 1,677 37.5% 30% 15.5% 3.5% N/a 13.5% N/a 51% 49%
22–27 Mar 2024 YouGov[162] Online 1,513 38% 32% 13% 7% N/a 10% N/a 51% 49%
21–24 Mar 2024 Resolve Strategic[163] Online 1,610 35% 32% 13% 5% 2% 13% N/a 53% 47%
20–24 Mar 2024 Essential[53] Online 1,150 36% 29% 11% 7% 3% 7% 6% 44% 50%
18–24 Mar 2024 Roy Morgan[164] Online 1,633 38% 31.5% 14% 4.5% N/a 12% N/a 50% 50%
18–22 Mar 2024 Newspoll[165] Online 1,223 37% 32% 13% 7% N/a 11% N/a 51% 49%
11–17 Mar 2024 Roy Morgan[166] Online 1,710 37% 31.5% 12.5% 5.5% N/a 13.5% N/a 51.5% 48.5%
8–10 Mar 2024 Freshwater Strategy[167] Online 1,051 39% 31% 14% N/a N/a 16% N/a 51% 49%
4–10 Mar 2024 Roy Morgan[168] Online 1,714 38% 32% 13% 4% N/a 13% N/a 51.5% 48.5%
5–9 Mar 2024 Essential[53] Online 1,126 35% 32% 11% 8% 2% 8% 5% 48% 47%
24 Feb  – 5 Mar 2024 YouGov[169] Online 1,539 37% 32% 15% 6% N/a 10% N/a 52% 48%
26 Feb  – 3 Mar 2024 Roy Morgan[170] Online 1,679 36.5% 34% 13.5% 3.5% N/a 12.5% N/a 53.5% 46.5%
2 Mar 2024 Labor is re-elected in the 2024 Dunkley by-election
21–25 Feb 2024 Essential[53] Online 1,145 35% 30% 13% 7% 2% 8% 4% 47% 48%
19–25 Feb 2024 Roy Morgan[171] Online 1,682 38% 31.5% 12% 5% N/a 13.5% N/a 50% 50%
21–24 Feb 2024 Resolve Strategic[172] Online 1,603 37% 34% 11% 6% 1% 13% N/a 52% 48%
19–23 Feb 2024 Newspoll[173] Online 1,245 36% 33% 12% 6% N/a 13% N/a 52% 48%
16–18 Feb 2024 Freshwater Strategy[174] Online 1,049 38% 31% 14% N/a N/a 17% N/a 51% 49%
12–18 Feb 2024 Roy Morgan[175] Online 1,706 37% 34% 13% 4% N/a 12% N/a 52.5% 47.5%
7–11 Feb 2024 Essential[53] Online 1,148 34% 31% 14% 7% 1% 9% 5% 50% 46%
5–11 Feb 2024 Roy Morgan[176] Online 1,699 37% 34.5% 12% 4.5% N/a 12% N/a 52% 48%
2–7 Feb 2024 YouGov[177] Online 1,502 36% 32% 14% 8% N/a 10% N/a 52% 48%
30 Jan – 7 Feb 2024 RedBridge Group[178] Online 2,040 38% 33% 13% N/a N/a 16% N/a 51.2% 48.8%
29 Jan – 4 Feb 2024 Roy Morgan[179] Online 1,709 37% 33% 12% 5% N/a 13% N/a 53% 47%
31 Jan – 3 Feb 2024 Newspoll[180] Online 1,245 36% 34% 12% 7% N/a 11% N/a 52% 48%
24–28 Jan 2024 Essential[53] Online 1,201 34% 32% 13% 7% 2% 7% 5% 48% 46%
22–28 Jan 2024 Roy Morgan[181] Online 1,688 37.5% 31% 13% 5.5% N/a 13% N/a 50.5% 49.5%
15–21 Jan 2024 Roy Morgan[182] Online 1,675 36% 32.5% 12.5% 5% N/a 14% N/a 52.5% 47.5%
12–17 Jan 2024 YouGov[183] Online 1,532 37% 32% 13% 7% N/a 11% N/a 52% 48%
8–14 Jan 2024 Roy Morgan[184] Online 1,727 37% 31.5% 12% 4.5% N/a 15% N/a 51.5% 48.5%
10–11 Jan 2024 Freshwater Strategy[185][186][187] Online 1,007 39% 31% 13% N/a N/a 16% N/a 50% 50%
2–7 Jan 2024 Roy Morgan[188] Online 1,716 39% 29% 13% 5% N/a 14% N/a 49% 51%

2023

Date Brand Interview
mode		 Sample
size		 Primary vote 2pp vote[a]
L/NP ALP GRN ONP UAP OTH UND ALP L/NP
15–17 Dec 2023 Freshwater Strategy[189] Online 1,109 39% 31% 13% N/a N/a 16% N/a 50% 50%
11–17 Dec 2023 Roy Morgan[190] Online 1,109 38% 32% 11.5% 4.5% N/a 14% N/a 50% 50%
11–15 Dec 2023 Newspoll[191] Online 1,219 36% 33% 13% 7% N/a 11% N/a 52% 48%
6–11 Dec 2023 Essential[53] Online 1,102 34% 31% 13% 6% 2% 9% 5% 49% 46%
6–11 Dec 2023 RedBridge Group[192] Online 2,010 35% 33% 13% N/a N/a 19% N/a 52.8% 47.2%
1–5 Dec 2023 YouGov[193][194] Online 1,555 36% 29% 15% 7% N/a 13% N/a 51% 49%
29 Nov – 3 Dec 2023 Resolve Strategic[195][196] Online 1,605 34% 35% 12% 5% 1% 12% N/a 55% 45%
27 Nov – 3 Dec 2023 Roy Morgan[197] N/a 1,730 37.5% 32.5% 12.5% 5% N/a 12.5% N/a 51% 49%
22–26 Nov 2023 Essential[53] Online 1,151 34% 31% 13% 7% 1% 8% 6% 48% 47%
20–26 Nov 2023 Roy Morgan[198] N/a 1,379 35% 32% 13.5% 5% N/a 14.5% N/a 52.5% 47.5%
20–24 Nov 2023 Newspoll[199] Online 1,216 38% 31% 13% 6% N/a 12% N/a 50% 50%
13–19 Nov 2023 Roy Morgan[200] N/a 1,401 37.5% 29.5% 13.5% 6.5% N/a 13% N/a 49.5% 50.5%
10–14 Nov 2023 YouGov[201] Online 1,582 36% 31% 13% 7% N/a 13% N/a 51% 49%
8–12 Nov 2023 Essential[53] Online 1,150 34% 32% 12% 7% 2% 8% 5% 49% 47%
6–12 Nov 2023 Roy Morgan[202] N/a 1,397 36.5% 30% 13% 6% N/a 14.5% N/a 50% 50%
1–5 Nov 2023 Resolve Strategic[203] Online 1,602 30% 35% 13% 7% 2% 13% N/a 57% 43%
30 Oct – 3 Nov 2023 Newspoll[204] Online 1,220 37% 35% 12% 6% N/a 10% N/a 52% 48%
27 Oct – 2 Nov 2023 RedBridge Group[205] Online 1,205 35% 34% 14% N/a N/a 17% N/a 53.5% 46.5%
25–29 Oct 2023 Essential[53] Online 1,149 34% 32% 10% 7% 3% 9% 6% 48% 46%
23–29 Oct 2023 Roy Morgan[206] N/a 1,375 35% 32.5% 15% N/a N/a 17.5% N/a 53% 47%
16–22 Oct 2023 Roy Morgan[207] N/a 1,383 36% 32% 14% 4.5% N/a 13.5% N/a 49.5% 50.5%
14 Oct 2023 The 2023 Australian Indigenous Voice referendum is defeated
4–12 Oct 2023 Newspoll[208] Online 2,638 35% 36% 12% 6% N/a 11% N/a 54% 46%
6–10 Oct 2023 YouGov[209] Online 1,519 36% 33% 14% 6% N/a 11% N/a 53% 47%
3–6 Oct 2023 Newspoll[210][211] Online 1,225 36% 34% 12% 5% N/a 13% N/a 53% 47%
22 Sep – 4 Oct 2023 Resolve Strategic[212][213] Online 4,728 31% 37% 12% 7% 2% 11% N/a 57% 43%
27 Sept – 1 Oct 2023 Essential[53] Online 1,125 32% 33% 14% 6% 2% 7% 5% 50% 45%
25–29 Sep 2023 YouGov[214][215] Online 1,563 35% 33% 13% N/a N/a 19% N/a 53% 47%
22–24 Sep 2023 Freshwater Strategy[216] Online 1,003 37% 33% 13% N/a N/a 17% N/a 51% 49%
18–22 Sep 2023 Newspoll[217][218] Online 1,239 36% 36% 11% 6% N/a 11% N/a 54% 46%
13–17 Sep 2023 Essential[53] Online 1,135 32% 31% 13% 8% 2% 8% 6% 49% 45%
4–10 Sep 2023 Roy Morgan[219] N/a 1,382 37% 32% 13.5% N/a N/a 17.5% N/a 52.5% 47.5%
6–9 Sep 2023 Resolve Strategic[220][221] Online 1,604 34% 36% 12% 5% 2% 11% N/a 55.5% 44.5%
30 Aug – 4 Sep 2023 RedBridge Group[222] Online 1,001 36% 37% 13% N/a N/a 14% N/a 54.1% 45.9%
30 Aug – 3 Sep 2023 Essential[53] Online 1,151 32% 31% 15% 7% 2% 7% 6% 51% 43%
28 Aug – 3 Sep 2023 Roy Morgan[223] N/a 1,404 37.5% 33.5% 13% N/a N/a 16% N/a 53% 47%
28 Aug– 1 Sep 2023 Newspoll[224] Online 1,200 37% 35% 13% 7% N/a 8% N/a 53% 47%
16–20 Aug 2023 Essential[53][225] Online 1,151 33% 33% 14% 5% 3% 7% 6% 51% 43%
10–14 Aug 2023 RedBridge Group[226] Online 1,010 32% 38% 10% N/a N/a 21% N/a 55.6% 44.4%
9–13 Aug 2023 Resolve Strategic[227][228] Online 1,603 33% 37% 11% 5% 2% 12% N/a 56% 44%
2–6 Aug 2023 Essential[53][229] Online 1,150 30% 33% 12% 8% 2% 8% 6% 52% 42%
19–23 Jul 2023 Essential[53][230] Online 1,150 32% 31% 14% 7% 1% 9% 6% 50% 45%
15 Jul 2023 LNP is re-elected in the 2023 Fadden by-election
12–15 Jul 2023 Resolve Strategic[231][232] Online 1,610 30% 39% 11% 6% 1% 11% N/a 59% 41%
12–15 Jul 2023 Newspoll[233][234] Online 1,570 34% 36% 12% 7% N/a 11% N/a 55% 45%
5–9 Jul 2023 Essential[53][235] Online 2,248 32% 32% 14% 8% 1% 8% 5% 51% 44%
21–25 Jun 2023 Essential[53] Online 1,148 30% 32% 14% 7% 2% 11% 6% 52% 42%
16–24 Jun 2023 Newspoll[236][237] Online 2,303 35% 38% 11% 6% N/a 10% N/a 54% 46%
7–11 Jun 2023 Essential[53] Online 1,123 32% 32% 16% 5% 1% 9% 5% 52% 42%
6–11 Jun 2023 Resolve Strategic[238][239] Online 1,606 30% 40% 12% 6% 2% 10% N/a 60% 40%
31 May – 3 Jun 2023 Newspoll[240][241] Online 1,549 34% 38% 12% 6% N/a 10% N/a 55% 45%
24–28 May 2023 Essential[53] Online 1,138 31% 34% 15% 6% 2% 7% 5% 52% 43%
15–17 May 2023 Freshwater Strategy[242][243] Online 1,005 37% 34% 12% N/a N/a 17% N/a 52% 48%
10–14 May 2023 Essential[53][244] Online 1,080 31% 35% 14% 5% 1% 8% 5% 53% 42%
11–13 May 2023 Newspoll[245][246] Online 1,516 34% 38% 11% 7% N/a 10% N/a 55% 45%
10–13 May 2023 Resolve Strategic[247][248] Online 1,610 30% 42% 12% 5% 2% 8% 2% 61% 39%
26–30 Apr 2023 Essential[53][249] Online 1,130 32% 33% 14% 5% 2% 8% 5% 53% 41%
19–22 Apr 2023 Newspoll[250][251] Online 1,514 33% 38% 11% 7% N/a 11% N/a 56% 44%
12–16 Apr 2023 Essential[53][252] Online 1,136 31% 34% 14% 6% 3% 9% 4% 52% 43%
12–16 Apr 2023 Resolve Strategic[253][254] Online 1,609 28% 42% 12% 6% 1% 11% N/a 61.5% 38.5%
29 Mar – 2 Apr 2023 Essential[53][255] Online 1,133 30% 33% 14% 6% 2% 10% 5% 53% 42%
29 Mar – 1 Apr 2023 Newspoll[256] Online 1,500 33% 38% 10% 8% N/a 11% N/a 55% 45%
1 Apr 2023 Labor wins the 2023 Aston by-election
15–20 Mar 2023 Essential[53][257] Online 1,124 31% 34% 14% 5% 2% 9% 5% 52% 43%
12–16 Mar 2023 Resolve Strategic[258][257] Online 1,600 30% 39% 13% 5% 1% 11% N/a 60% 40%
1–5 Mar 2023 Essential[53] Online 1,141 32% 32% 12% 7% 2% 10% 7% 49% 44%
27 Feb – 5 Mar 2023 Roy Morgan N/a N/a 33.5% 38% 11.5% N/a N/a 17% N/a 54.5% 45.5%
1–4 Mar 2023 Newspoll[259] Online 1,530 35% 37% 10% 7% N/a 11% N/a 54% 46%
20–26 Feb 2023 Roy Morgan N/a N/a 34.5% 37% 13.5% N/a N/a 15% N/a 56.5% 43.5%
15–19 Feb 2023 Essential[53] Online 1,044 30% 33% 14% 6% 3% 8% 8% 51% 42%
15–19 Feb 2023 Resolve Strategic[260][261] Online 1,604 31% 40% 10% 5% 1% 11% N/a 58% 42%
13–19 Feb 2023 Roy Morgan Online/
Telephone		 N/a 33% 37% 13% N/a N/a 17% N/a 58.5% 41.5%
1–6 Feb 2023 Essential[53] Online 1,000 30% 33% 17% 6% 1% 15% 5% 55% 40%
1–4 Feb 2023 Newspoll[262][263] Online 1,512 34% 38% 11% 6% 1% 10% N/a 55% 45%
23–29 Jan 2023 Roy Morgan N/a N/a 33.5% 37.5% 11.5% N/a N/a 17.5% N/a 57% 43%
18–22 Jan 2023 Essential[53][264] Online 1,050 31% 34% 14% 8% 1% 7% 5% 53% 42%
17–22 Jan 2023 Resolve Strategic[265][264] Online 1,606 29% 42% 11% 6% 2% 11% N/a 60% 40%

2022

Date Brand Interview
mode		 Sample
size		 Primary vote 2pp vote[a]
L/NP ALP GRN ONP UAP OTH UND ALP L/NP
23 Dec 2022 Andrew Gee leaves the Nationals to become an Independent
16–18 Dec 2022 Freshwater Strategy[266][267][268] Online 1,209 37% 37% 12% 4% 1% 9% N/a 54% 46%
7–11 Dec 2022 Essential[53] Online 1,042 30% 35% 13% 6% 3% 8% 5% 51% 44%
30 Nov – 4 Dec 2022 Resolve Strategic[269][270] Online 1,611 30% 42% 11% 4% 2% 8% N/a 60% 40%
30 Nov – 3 Dec 2022 Newspoll[271] Online 1,508 35% 39% 11% 6% 1% 9% N/a 55% 45%
23–27 Nov 2022 Essential[271][272] Online 1,042 31% 33% 13% N/a N/a 17% 6% 51% 43%
27–30 Oct 2022 Newspoll-YouGov[273] Online 1,500 35% 38% 11% 6% 1% 9% N/a 55% 45%
26–30 Oct 2022 Resolve Strategic[274][273] Online 1,611 32% 39% 13% 4% 1% 11% N/a 58% 42%
5–9 Oct 2022 Resolve Strategic[275][276] Online 1,604 30% 39% 12% 5% 3% 11% N/a 58.5% 41.5%
14–18 Sep 2022 Resolve Strategic[277][278] Online 1,607 32% 39% 10% 6% 2% 11% N/a 56.5% 43.5%
31 Aug – 3 Sep 2022 Newspoll-YouGov[279][280] Online 1,505 31% 37% 13.5% 7% 2% 10% N/a 57% 43%
17–21 Aug 2022 Resolve Strategic[281][282] Online 2,011 28% 42% 12% 5% 2% 11% N/a 61% 39%
27–30 Jul 2022 Newspoll-YouGov[283][284] Online 1,508 33% 37% 12% 6% 2% 10% N/a 56% 44%
14–17 Jun 2022 Dynata[285] Online 1,001 31% 34% 12% 4% 4% 7% 9% 52.2% 47.8%
13–19 Jun 2022 Roy Morgan[286] Online/
telephone		 1,401 37% 36% 11% 4% 0.5% 11.5% N/a 53% 47%
29 May 2022 Peter Dutton elected unopposed as Leader of the Liberal Party[287]
21 May 2022 Election[288][289] 35.7% 32.6% 12.2% 5.0% 4.1% 10.4% — 52.1% 47.9%

Preferred prime minister and leadership polling

Graphical summary

The following graphical summaries illustrate results from opinion polling for preferred Prime Minister and their respective approval ratings based on data below that is documented in the tables.

Preferred prime minister

Leadership approval ratings

Albanese

Dutton

Preferred prime minister and leadership polling table

2025
Date Firm Interview mode Sample Preferred prime minister Albanese Dutton
Albanese Dutton Don't Know Net Satisfied Dissatisfied Don't Know Net Satisfied Dissatisfied Don't Know Net
2 May 2025 Ipsos[7] Online 2,574 48% 34% 18% 14% 36% 42% 22% −6% 27% 51% 22% −24%
29 Apr – 1 May 2025 Freshwater Strategy[8] Online 2,055 49% 39% 12% 10% 41% 44% 15% −3% 35% 51% 14% −16%
28 Apr – 1 May 2025 Newspoll[9] Online 1,270 51% 35% 14% 16% 42% 52% 6% −10% 32% 60% 8% −28%
24 Apr – 1 May 2025 YouGov[10] Online 3,003 51% 34% 15% 17% 43% 49% 8% −6% 33% 57% 10% −24%
27–30 Apr 2025 DemosAU[9] Online 4,100 46% 34% 20% 12% N/a N/a N/a N/a N/a N/a N/a N/a
24–28 Apr 2025 Spectre Strategy/Dynata[14] Online 2,000 47% 35% 27% 12% N/a N/a N/a N/a N/a N/a N/a N/a
23–28 Apr 2025 Resolve Strategic[290] Telephone/Online 2,010 47% 31% 22% 16% 45% 44% 11% +1% 33% 57% 10% −24%
24–27 Apr 2025 Essential[291] Online 2,163 N/a N/a N/a N/a 44% 47% 9% −3% 39% 51% 10% −12%
21–24 Apr 2025 Newspoll[292] Online 1,254 51% 35% 14% 16% 43% 52% 5% −9% 35% 59% 6% −24%
22–23 Apr 2025 DemosAU[20] Online 1,073 43% 34% 23% 9% N/a N/a N/a N/a N/a N/a N/a N/a
17–22 Apr 2025 YouGov[293] Online 1,500 50% 35% 15% 15% 42% 49% 9% −7% 36% 54% 10% −18%
14–17 Apr 2025 Newspoll[23] Online 1,263 52% 36% 12% 16% 43% 52% 5% −9% 35% 57% 8% −22%
14–16 Apr 2025 Freshwater Strategy[24] Online 1,062 45% 41% 14% 4% 37% 48% 15% −11% 37% 47% 16% −10%
11–15 Apr 2025 YouGov[25] Online 1,506 48% 38% 14% 10% 43% 49% 8% −6% 40% 50% 10% −10%
9–14 Apr 2025 Essential[26] Online 2,142 N/a N/a N/a N/a 44% 47% 9% −3% 40% 48% 12% −8%
9–13 Apr 2025 Resolve Strategic[294] Online 1,642 46% 30% 24% 16% 45% 43% 12% +2% 34% 53% 13% −19%
7–10 Apr 2025 Newspoll[29] Online 1,271 49% 38% 13% 11% 45% 49% 6% −4% 37% 56% 7% −19%
4–10 Apr 2025 YouGov[30] Online 1,515 48% 37% 15% 11% 45% 47% 8% −2% 38% 53% 9% −15%
31 Mar – 4 Apr 2025 Newspoll[31] Online 1,250 48% 40% 12% 8% 42% 53% 5% −11% 38% 55% 7% −17%
28 Mar – 3 Apr 2025 YouGov[33] Online 1,622 45% 38% 17% 7% 44% 50% 6% −6% 38% 53% 9% −15%
28–30 Mar 2025 Freshwater Strategy[36] Online 1,059 46% 45% 9% 1% 37% 49% 14% −12% 37% 47% 16% −10%
26–30 Mar 2025 Resolve Strategic[37] Online 3,237 42% 33% 25% 9% 39% 49% 12% −10% 37% 47% 16% −10%
26–30 Mar 2025 Essential[26] Online 1,100 N/a N/a N/a N/a 41% 47% 12% −6% 44% 46% 10% −2%
27–29 Mar 2025 DemosAU[295] Online 1,013 39% 38% 23% 1% N/a N/a N/a N/a N/a N/a N/a N/a
27–29 Mar 2025 Newspoll[39] Online 1,249 49% 38% 13% 11% 43% 52% 5% −9% 37% 55% 8% −18%
17–21 Mar 2025 DemosAU[296] Online 1,006 40% 37% 23% 3% N/a N/a N/a N/a N/a N/a N/a N/a
14–19 Mar 2025 YouGov[43] Online 1,500 45% 40% 15% 5% 41% 50% 9% −9% 42% 47% 11% −5%
12–16 Mar 2025 Essential[44] Online 2,256 N/a N/a N/a N/a 46% 45% 10% +1% 41% 46% 13% −5%
13–15 Mar 2025 Freshwater Strategy[47] Online 1,051 46% 42% 12% 4% 37% 47% 16% −10% 35% 46% 19% −11%
7–13 Mar 2025 YouGov[48] Online 1,526 45% 39% 16% 6% 43% 49% 8% −6% 42% 48% 10% −6%
5–7 Mar 2025 Freshwater Strategy[297] Online 830 39% 39% 22% 0% N/a N/a N/a N/a N/a N/a N/a N/a
3–7 Mar 2025 Newspoll[51] Online 1,255 47% 38% 15% 9% 41% 53% 6% −12% 39% 53% 8% −14%
28 Feb – 6 Mar 2025 YouGov Online 1,504 45% 39% 16% 6% 42% 51% 7% −9% 43% 47% 10% −4%
26 Feb – 2 Mar 2025 Essential[298] Online 1,150 N/a N/a N/a N/a 41% 49% 10% −8% 41% 44% 15% −3%
21–27 Feb 2025 YouGov[299] Online 1,501 42% 40% 18% 2% 40% 52% 8% −12% 44% 46% 10% −2%
20–25 Feb 2025 RedBridge/Accent[300] Online 1,002 N/a N/a N/a N/a 30% 43% 27% −13% 39% 43% 18% −4%
21–23 Feb 2025 Freshwater Strategy[57] Online 1,038 45% 43% 12% 2% 35% 46% 19% −11% 36% 44% 20% −8%
18–23 Feb 2025 Resolve Strategic[58] Online 1,506 35% 39% 26% 4% 34% 56% 10% −22% 45% 40% 15% +5%
12–16 Feb 2025 Essential[301] Online 1,146 N/a N/a N/a N/a 42% 48% 10% −6% 41% 45% 14% −4%
10–14 Feb 2025 Newspoll[60] Online 1,244 45% 40% 15% 5% 37% 58% 5% −21% 41% 51% 8% −10%
4–11 Feb 2025 RedBridge/Accent[62] Online 1,002 N/a N/a N/a N/a 29% 45% 26% −16% 31% 42% 27% −11%
20–24 Jan 2025 Newspoll[68] Online 1,259 44% 41% 15% 3% 37% 57% 6% −20% 40% 51% 9% −11%
15–21 Jan 2025 Resolve Strategic[69] Online 1,616 34% 39% 27% 5% 33% 55% 12% −22% 44% 38% 18% +6%
17–19 Jan 2025 Freshwater Strategy[70] Online 1,063 43% 43% 14% 0% 32% 50% 18% −18% 36% 40% 24% −4%
15–19 Jan 2025 Essential[302] Online 1,132 N/a N/a N/a N/a 45% 45% 10% 0% 42% 43% 15% −1%
9–15 Jan 2025 YouGov[72] Online 1,504 44% 40% 16% 4% 40% 55% 5% −15% 43% 49% 8% −6%
2024
Date Firm Interview mode Sample Preferred prime minister Albanese Dutton
Albanese Dutton Don't Know Net Satisfied Dissatisfied Don't Know Net Satisfied Dissatisfied Don't Know Net
13–15 Dec 2024 Freshwater Strategy[75] Online 1,051 46% 43% 11% 3% 34% 51% 15% −17% 37% 40% 23% −3%
11–15 Dec 2024 Essential[303] Online 1,151 N/a N/a N/a N/a 39% 50% 11% −11% 44% 41% 15% +3%
4–8 Dec 2024 Resolve Strategic[77] Online 1,604 35% 35% 30% 0% 31% 57% 12% −26% 40% 42% 18% −2%
2–6 Dec 2024 Newspoll[79] Online 1,258 45% 38% 17% 7% 40% 54% 6% −14% 39% 51% 10% −12%
15–21 Nov 2024 YouGov[83] Online 1,515 42% 39% 19% 3% 36% 56% 8% −20% 40% 48% 12% −8%
13–18 Nov 2024 Essential[304] Online 1,206 N/a N/a N/a N/a 43% 48% 10% −5% 42% 41% 16% +1%
15–17 Nov 2024 Freshwater Strategy[85] Online 1,046 43% 42% 15% 1% 33% 50% 17% −17% 37% 41% 22% −4%
5–10 Nov 2024 Resolve Strategic[88][89] Online 1,621 37% 37% 26% 0% 37% 51% 12% −14% 45% 40% 15% +5%
4–8 Nov 2024 Newspoll[91] Online 1,261 45% 41% 14% 4% 40% 55% 5% −15% 40% 51% 9% −11%
18–20 Oct 2024 Freshwater Strategy[95] Online 1,034 44% 43% 13% 1% 35% 49% 16% −14% 37% 39% 24% −2%
16–20 Oct 2024 Essential[305] Online 1,140 N/a N/a N/a N/a 44% 48% 8% −4% 45% 39% 16% +6%
4–16 Oct 2024 RedBridge Group[306] Online 2,315 N/a N/a N/a N/a 34% 53% 13% −19% 39% 42% 19% −3%
7–11 Oct 2024 Newspoll[98] Online 1,258 45% 37% 18% 8% 40% 54% 6% −14% 38% 52% 10% −14%
1–5 Oct 2024 Resolve Strategic[100] Online 1,606 38% 35% 27% 3% 35% 52% 13% −17% 41% 41% 18% 0%
18–22 Sep 2024 Essential[307] Online 1,117 N/a N/a N/a N/a 42% 47% 11% −5% 42% 42% 16% 0%
16–20 Sep 2024 Newspoll[103] Online 1,249 46% 37% 17% 9% 43% 51% 6% −8% 37% 52% 11% −15%
13–19 Sep 2024 YouGov[104] Online 1,619 42% 39% 19% 3% 36% 58% 6% −22% 40% 50% 10% −10%
13–15 Sep 2024 Freshwater Strategy[105] Online 1,057 45% 41% 14%[j] 4% 34% 49% 17% −15% 34% 38% 28% −4%
3–7 Sep 2024 Resolve Strategic[108] Online 1,614 35% 34% 31% 1% 35% 53% 12% −18% 41% 42% 17% −1%
26–30 Aug 2024 Newspoll[110] Online 1,263 45% 37% 18% 8% 41% 54% 5% −13% 39% 52% 9% −13%
23–28 Aug 2024 YouGov[114] Online 1,543 43% 38% 19% 5% 41% 52% 7% −11% 42% 47% 11% −5%
20–24 Aug 2024 Essential[308] Online 1,129 N/a N/a N/a N/a 40% 50% 10% −10% 42% 41% 16% +1%
16–18 Aug 2024 Freshwater Strategy[119] Online 1,061 45% 41% 14%[k] 4% 35% 45% 20% −10% 37% 40% 23% −3%
7–11 Aug 2024 Resolve Strategic[121] Online 1,607 35% 36% 29% 1% 34% 51% 15% −17% 41% 38% 21% +3%
5–9 Aug 2024 Newspoll[123] Online 1,266 46% 39% 15% 7% 43% 51% 6% −8% 40% 50% 10% −10%
24–28 Jul 2024 Essential[309] Online 1,137 N/a N/a N/a N/a 43% 46% 11% −3% 42% 41% 17% +1%
19–21 Jul 2024 Freshwater Strategy[310] Online 1,060 45% 39% 16%[l] 6% 34% 48% 18% −14% 36% 39% 25% −3%
15–19 Jul 2024 Newspoll[310] Online 1,258 46% 39% 15% 6% 44% 51% 5% −7% 41% 49% 10% −8%
12–17 Jul 2024 YouGov[130] Online 1,528 45% 37% 18% 8% 42% 52% 6% −10% 42% 46% 12% −4%
10–13 Jul 2024 Resolve Strategic[132] Online 1,603 34% 35% 31% 1% 32% 54% 14% −22% 39% 40% 21% −1%
26–30 Jun 2024 Essential[311] Online 1,141 N/a N/a N/a N/a 40% 49% 11% −9% 41% 42% 17% −1%
24–28 Jun 2024 Newspoll[135] Online 1,260 46% 38% 16% 8% 42% 53% 5% −11% 38% 54% 8% −16%
14–16 Jun 2024 Freshwater Strategy[137] Online 1,060 43% 41% 16%[m] 2% 34% 46% 20% −12% 35% 40% 25% −5%
11–15 Jun 2024 Resolve Strategic[139] Online 1,607 35% 36% 29% 1% 36% 50% 14% −14% 42% 40% 19% +2%
3–7 Jun 2024 Newspoll[141] Online 1,232 46% 38% 16% 8% 43% 50% 7% −7% 39% 49% 12% −10%
31 May – 4 Jun 2024 YouGov[142] Online 1,500 47% 36% 17% 9% 41% 53% 6% –12% 38% 51% 11% −13%
29 May – 2 Jun 2024 Essential[312] Online 1,160 N/a N/a N/a N/a 43% 47% 11% −4% 41% 42% 17% −1%
17–19 May 2024 Freshwater Strategy[145] Online 1,056 46% 37% 16%[n] 9% 37% 46% 18% −9% 31% 40% 29% −9%
15–19 May 2024 Resolve Strategic[146] Online 1,602 40% 32% 28% 8% 39% 49% 12% −10% 39% 42% 19% −3%
16–18 May 2024 Newspoll[148] Online 1,280 52% 33% 15% 19% 47% 47% 6% 0% 38% 50% 12% −12%
10–14 May 2024 YouGov[149] Online 1,506 44% 37% 19% 7% 41% 53% 6% −12% 42% 48% 10% −6%
17–21 Apr 2024 Essential[313] Online 1,145 N/a N/a N/a N/a 43% 48% 9% −5% 44% 41% 15% +3%
17–21 Apr 2024 Resolve Strategic[154] Online 1,610 41% 32% 27% 9% 43% 45% 12% −2% 40% 42% 17% −2%
15–18 Apr 2024 Newspoll[157] Online 1,236 48% 35% 17% 13% 44% 50% 6% −6% 36% 51% 13% −15%
12–14 Apr 2024 Freshwater Strategy[158] Online 1,055 45% 39% 16%[o] 6% 38% 45% 17% −7% 32% 41% 27% −9%
22–27 Mar 2024 YouGov[162] Online 1,513 46% 34% 20% 12% 41% 52% 7% −11% 38% 49% 13% −11%
21–24 Mar 2024 Resolve Strategic[163] Online 1,610 40% 30% 30% 10% 38% 49% 13% −11% 36% 44% 20% −8%
18–22 Mar 2024 Newspoll[165] Online 1,223 48% 34% 18% 14% 44% 51% 5% −7% 37% 52% 11% −15%
8–10 Mar 2024 Freshwater Strategy[167] Online 1,051 47% 38% 15%[p] 9% 37% 45% 18% −8% 30% 43% 27% −13%
24 Feb – 5 Mar 2024 YouGov[169] Online 1,539 48% 34% 18% 14% 44% 50% 6% −6% 39% 49% 12% −10%
21–25 Feb 2024 Essential[314] Online 1,145 N/a N/a N/a N/a 42% 47% 10% −5% 40% 44% 16% −4%
21–24 Feb 2024 Resolve Strategic[172] Online 1,603 39% 32% 29% 7% 41% 47% 12% −6% 35% 45% 20% −10%
19–23 Feb 2024 Newspoll[173] Online 1,245 47% 35% 18% 12% 43% 51% 6% −8% 37% 51% 12% −14%
16–18 Feb 2024 Freshwater Strategy[315] Online 1,049 42% 38% 19%[q] 4% 38% 45% 18% −7% 32% 41% 28% −9%
2–7 Feb 2024 YouGov[177] Online 1,502 45% 38% 17% 7% N/a N/a N/a −16% N/a N/a N/a −8%
31 Jan – 3 Feb 2024 Newspoll[180][316] Online 1,245 46% 35% 19% 11% 42% 51% 7% −9% 37% 50% 13% −13%
24–28 Jan 2024 Essential[317] Online 1,201 N/a N/a N/a N/a 41% 47% 12% −6% 38% 43% 19% −5%
12–17 Jan 2024 YouGov[183] Online 1,532 45% 35% 20% 10% N/a N/a N/a −13% N/a N/a N/a −11%
10–11 Jan 2024 Freshwater Strategy[185][186][187] Online 1,007 47% 38% 15%[r] 9% 38% 43% 19% −5% 31% 40% 30% −9%
2023
Date Firm Interview mode Sample Preferred prime minister Albanese Dutton
Albanese Dutton Don't Know Satisfied Dissatisfied Don't Know Net Satisfied Dissatisfied Don't Know Net
15–17 Dec 2023 Freshwater Strategy[189] Online 1,109 43% 39% 18%[s] 37% 42% 20% −5% 34% 36% 30% −2%
11–15 Dec 2023 Newspoll[191] Online 1,219 46% 35% 19% 42% 50% 8% −8% 39% 48% 13% −9%
1–5 Dec 2023 YouGov[193][194] Online 1,555 46% 36% 18% 39% 55% 6% −16% 39% 48% 13% −9%
29 Nov – 3 Dec 2023 Resolve Strategic[195] Online 1,605 42% 28% 30% 37% 48% 15% −11% 34% 42% 24% −8%
22–26 Nov 2023 Essential[318] Online 1,151 N/a N/a N/a 42% 47% 12% −5% 39% 42% 19% −3%
20–24 Nov 2023 Newspoll[199] Online 1,216 46% 35% 19% 40% 53% 7% −13% 37% 50% 13% −13%
10–14 Nov 2023 YouGov[201][319] Online 1,582 48% 34% 18% 43% 50% 7% −7% 40% 47% 13% −7%
1–5 Nov 2023 Resolve Strategic[203] Online 1,602 40% 27% 33% 39% 46% 15% −7% 36% 40% 25% −4%
30 Oct – 3 Nov 2023 Newspoll[204] Online 1,220 46% 36% 18% 42% 52% 6% −10% 37% 50% 13% −13%
11–14 Oct 2023 Essential[320] Online 1,125 N/a N/a N/a 46% 43% 11% +3% 36% 43% 21% −7%
4–12 Oct 2023 Newspoll[208] Online 2,638 51% 31% 18% 46% 46% 8% 0% 35% 53% 12% −18%
6–10 Oct 2023 YouGov[209][319] Online 1,519 50% 34% 16% 45% 48% 7% −3% 38% 50% 12% −12%
3–6 Oct 2023 Newspoll[210][211] Online 1,225 50% 33% 17% 45% 46% 9% −1% 37% 50% 13% −13%
22 Sep – 4 Oct 2023 Resolve Strategic[212][213] Online 1,604 47% 25% 28% 43% 43% 14% 0% 30% 45% 25% −15%
25–29 Sep 2023 YouGov[214][319] Online 1,563 50% 33% 17% N/a N/a N/a N/a N/a N/a N/a N/a
22–24 Sep 2023 Freshwater Strategy[216] Online 1,003 46% 37% 17%[t] 38% 41% 21% −3% 30% 40% 30% −10%
18–22 Sep 2023 Newspoll[217][218] Online 1,239 50% 30% 20% 47% 44% 9% +3% 32% 52% 16% −20%
6–9 Sep 2023 Resolve Strategic[220][221] Online 1,604 43% 28% 29% 40% 47% 13% −7% 35% 43% 22% −8%
30 Aug – 3 Sep 2023 Essential[321] Online 1,151 N/a N/a N/a 46% 43% 10% +3% 38% 43% 19% −5%
28 Aug – 1 Sep 2023 Newspoll[224] Online 1,200 50% 31% 19% 46% 47% 7% −1% 38% 49% 13% −11%
9–13 Aug 2023 Resolve Strategic[227][228] Online 1,603 46% 25% 29% 44% 42% 14% +2% 31% 44% 24% −13%
19–23 Jul 2023 Essential[230][322] Online 1,150 N/a N/a N/a 48% 41% 11% +7% 37% 43% 20% −6%
12–15 Jul 2023 Resolve Strategic[231][232] Online 1,610 51% 21% 28% 51% 34% 15% +17% 31% 47% 23% −16%
12–15 Jul 2023 Newspoll[233] Online 1,570 54% 29% 17% 52% 41% 7% +11% 36% 49% 15% −13%
16–24 Jun 2023 Newspoll[236] Online 2,303 52% 32% 16% 52% 42% 6% +10% 38% 49% 13% −11%
29 May – 12 Jun 2023 CT Group[323] Online 3,000 N/a N/a N/a 42% 36% 22% +6% N/a N/a N/a N/a
6–11 Jun 2023 Resolve Strategic[238][239] Online 1,606 53% 22% 25% 53% 35% 13% +18% 28% 48% 24% −20%
31 May – 3 Jun 2023 Newspoll[240] Online 1,549 55% 28% 17% 55% 37% 8% +18% 36% 50% 14% −14%
15–17 May 2023 Freshwater Strategy[242][243] Online 1,005 51% 33% 16%[u] 42% 37% 21% +5% 30% 42% 28% −12%
10–14 May 2023 Essential[324] Online 1,125 N/a N/a N/a 54% 35% 11% +19% 36% 45% 19% −9%
11–13 May 2023 Newspoll[245][246] Online 1,516 56% 29% 15% 57% 38% 5% +19% 36% 51% 13% −15%
10–13 May 2023 Resolve Strategic[247][248] Online 1,610 53% 20% 27% 56% 29% 14% +27% 28% 49% 23% −21%
19–22 Apr 2023 Newspoll[250][251] Online 1,514 54% 28% 18% 53% 37% 10% +16% 33% 52% 15% −19%
12–16 Apr 2023 Essential[325] Online 1,136 N/a N/a N/a 51% 36% 12% +15% 36% 44% 20% −8%
12–16 Apr 2023 Resolve Strategic[253][254] Online 1,609 55% 21% 24% 56% 29% 14% +27% 26% 54% 19% −28%
29 Mar – 2 Apr 2023 Essential[326] Online 1,133 N/a N/a N/a 52% 35% 13% +17% N/a N/a N/a N/a
29 Mar – 1 Apr 2023 Newspoll Online 1,500 58% 26% 16% 56% 35% 9% +21% 35% 48% 21% −13%
12–16 Mar 2023 Resolve Strategic[258][257] Online 1,600 51% 22% 27% 55% 31% 13% +24% 32% 44% 25% −12%
1–4 Mar 2023 Newspoll Online 1,530 54% 28% 18% 55% 38% 7% +17% 37% 48% 15% −11%
15–21 Feb 2023 Morning Consult N/a N/a N/a N/a N/a 57% 31% 12% +26% N/a N/a N/a N/a
15–19 Feb 2023 Essential[327] Online 1,044 N/a N/a N/a 53% 34% 13% +19% N/a N/a N/a N/a
15–19 Feb 2023 Resolve Strategic[260][261] Online 1,604 55% 23% 22% 56% 30% 13% +26% 29% 45% 26% −16%
1–4 Feb 2023 Newspoll[262][263] Online 1,512 56% 26% 18% 57% 33% 10% +24% 36% 46% 18% −10%
18–22 Jan 2023 Essential[328] Online 1,050 N/a N/a N/a 55% 31% 13% +24% N/a N/a N/a N/a
17–22 Jan 2023 Resolve Strategic[265][264] Online 1,606 55% 20% 25% 60% 25% 15% +35% 28% 46% 26% −18%
2022
Date Firm Interview mode Sample Preferred prime minister Albanese Dutton
Albanese Dutton Don't Know Satisfied Dissatisfied Don't Know Net Satisfied Dissatisfied Don't Know Net
16–18 Dec 2022 Freshwater Strategy[266][267][268] Online 1,209 55% 29% 16%[v] – – – – – – – –
7–11 Dec 2022 Essential[329] Online 1,042 – – – 60% 27% 13% +33% – – – –
30 Nov – 4 Dec 2022 Resolve Strategic[269][270] Online 1,611 54% 19% 27% 60% 24% 16% +36% 28% 43% 29% –15%
30 Nov – 3 Dec 2022 Newspoll[271] Online 1,508 59% 24% 17% 62% 29% 9% +33% 36% 45% 19% –9%
16–22 Nov 2022 Morning Consult[330] Online N/a – – – 56% 31% 25% +25% – – – –
9–14 Nov 2022 Essential[331] Online 1,035 – – – 60% 27% 13% +33% – – – –
27–30 Oct 2022 Newspoll[273] Online 1,500 54% 27% 19% 59% 33% 8% +26% 39% 46% 15% –7%
26–30 Oct 2022 Resolve Strategic[274][273][332] Online 1,611 53% 19% 28% 57% 28% 16% +29% 29% 41% 30% –12%
13–16 Oct 2022 Freshwater Strategic[w][333] Online 1,042 – – – 50% 26% 24% +24% 33% 34% 33% –1%
11–16 Oct 2022 Essential[334] Online 1,122 – – – 58% 26% 15% +32% – – – –
5–9 Oct 2022 Resolve Strategic[275][276] Online 1,604 53% 18% 29% 60% 25% 15% +35% 30% 41% 28% –11%
14–18 Sep 2022 Resolve Strategic[277][278] Online 1,607 53% 19% 28% 60% 24% 16% +36% 28% 40% 32% –12%
31 Aug – 4 Sep 2022 Essential[335] Online 1,070 — — — 59% 25% 15% +34% — — — —
31 Aug – 3 Sep 2022 Newspoll[279] Online 1,505 61% 22% 17% 61% 29% 10% +32% 35% 43% 22% –8%
17–21 Aug 2022 Resolve Strategic[281][282] Online 2,011 55% 17% 28% 61% 22% 17% +39% 30% 37% 32% –7%
3–7 Aug 2022 Essential[336] Online 1,075 — — — 55% 28% 18% +27% — — — —
27–30 Jul 2022 [Newspoll][283] Online 1,508 59% 25% 16% 61% 26% 13% +35% 37% 41% 22% –4%
7–11 Jul 2022 Essential[337] Online 1,097 — — — 56% 24% 20% +32% — — — —
8–12 Jun 2022 Essential[338] Online 1,087 — — — 59% 18% 23% +41% — — — —
23–31 May 2022 Morning Consult[339] Online 3,770 — — — 51% 24% 25% +27% — — — —

Sub-national polling

New South Wales

Graphical summary

Primary vote

Two-party preferred

Polling
Date Firm Sample
size		 Primary vote 2pp vote[x]
L/NP ALP GRN ONP UAP IND OTH ALP L/NP
3 May 2025 Election[5] 31.5% 35.2% 11.1% 6.0% 1.8% 9.7% 5.7% 55.3% 44.7%
24 Apr – 1 May 2025 YouGov[340] 915 32% 30% 14% 9% N/a N/a 15% 51% 49%
27–30 Apr 2025 DemosAU[340] 1,291 35% 31% 10% 9% N/a N/a 15% 50% 50%
24–29 Apr 2025 RedBridge Group[340] 321 35% 34% 8% N/a N/a N/a 23% 51% 49%
24–28 Apr 2025 Spectre Strategy/Dynata[14][y] N/a 34% 30% 14% 10% N/a N/a 12% 50% 50%
23–28 Apr 2025 Resolve Strategic[340] 638 34% 33% 11% 7% N/a 11% 4% 51% 49%
18–22 Apr 2025 YouGov[340] 440 26% 35% 16% 10% N/a N/a 13% 57% 43%
27 Mar – 17 Apr 2025 Newspoll[340] 1,591 36% 34% 11% 7% N/a N/a 12% 52% 48%
11–15 Apr 2025 YouGov[340] 487 33% 32% 17% 5% N/a N/a 13% 54% 46%
9–13 Apr 2025 Resolve Strategic[340] 522 34% 31% 12% 6% N/a 14% 3% 50% 50%
4–10 Apr 2025 YouGov[340] 495 32% 30% 17% 10% N/a N/a 11% 51% 49%
28 Mar – 3 Apr 2025 YouGov[340] 513 35% 29% 17% 5% N/a N/a 14% 50% 50%
26–30 Mar 2025 Resolve Strategic[340] 1,027 40% 30% 11% 6% N/a 10% 4% 47% 53%
24–26 Mar 2025 DemosAU[295] 1,013 38% 30% 12% 9% N/a N/a 11% 49% 51%
14–19 Mar 2025 YouGov[340] 773 36% 28% 16% 7% N/a N/a 13% 49.5% 50.5%
17 Jan – 15 Mar 2025 Freshwater Strategy[340] 947 42% 30% 13% N/a N/a N/a 15% 48% 52%
7–13 Mar 2025 YouGov[340] 482 36% 28% 15.5% 7% N/a N/a 13.5% 49.5% 50.5%
20 Jan – 7 Mar 2025 Newspoll[340] 1,149 38% 31% 12% 7% N/a N/a 12% 50% 50%
28 Feb – 6 Mar 2025 YouGov[340] 475 35% 29% 15% 7% N/a N/a 14% 50% 50%
21–27 Feb 2025 YouGov[340] 506 35% 26% 15% 12% N/a N/a 12% 48.5% 51.5%
18–23 Feb 2025 Resolve Strategic[340] 478 38% 24% 13% 11% N/a 10% 3% 45.5% 54.5%
4–11 Feb 2025 RedBridge/Accent[62] 305 43% 33% 10% N/a N/a N/a 14% 47% 53%
15–21 Jan 2025 Resolve Strategic[340] 513 39% 27% 13% 5% N/a 10% 5% 47.5% 52.5%
4–8 Dec 2024 Resolve Strategic[340] 509 38% 27% 13% 9% N/a 11% 2% 47.5% 52.5%
7 Oct – 6 Dec 2024 Newspoll[340] 1,193 40% 32% 10% 7% N/a N/a 11% 50% 50%
5–10 Nov 2024 Resolve Strategic[340] 515 38% 30% 10% 6% N/a 13% 3% 50.5% 49.5%
1–5 Oct 2024 Resolve Strategic[340] 510 39% 31% 10% 5% N/a 11% 4% 49.5% 50.5%
15 Jul – 20 Sep 2024 Newspoll[340] 1,592 38% 30% 12% 7% N/a N/a 13% 49% 51%
3–7 Sep 2024 Resolve Strategic[340] 513 37% 30% 12% 6% 1% 12% 3% 50.5% 49.5%
7–11 Aug 2024 Resolve Strategic[340] 510 39% 29% 12% 4% 2% 9% 4% 49% 51%
10–13 Jul 2024 Resolve Strategic[340] 509 39% 27% 13% 6% 1% 12% 2% 48.5% 51.5%
15 Apr – 26 Jun 2024 Newspoll[340] 1,567 40% 33% 11% 6% N/a N/a 10% 49% 51%
11–16 Jun 2024 Resolve Strategic[340] 510 37% 29% 12% 5% 2% 12% 3% 50% 50%
15–19 May 2024 Resolve Strategic[340] 511 35% 31% 10% 7% 1% 13% 2% 51% 49%
17–21 Apr 2024 Resolve Strategic[340] 511 35% 31% 11% 6% 1% 12% 4% 51.5% 48.5%
21–24 Mar 2024 Resolve Strategic[340] 511 35% 33% 11% 6% 2% 12% 2% 52.5% 47.5%
31 Jan – 22 Mar 2024 Newspoll[340] 1,152 38% 32% 12% 7% N/a N/a 11% 50% 50%
21–24 Feb 2024 Resolve Strategic[340] 509 37% 34% 10% 4% 1% 10% 4% 52% 48%
31 Oct – 15 Dec 2023 Newspoll[340] 1,139 37% 32% 13% 7% N/a N/a 11% 51% 49%
29 Nov – 3 Dec 2023 Resolve Strategic[340] 510 35% 35% 12% 5% 1% 10% 2% 54.5% 45.5%
1–5 Nov 2023 Resolve Strategic[340] 509 31% 37% 14% 6% 1% 8% 4% 58% 42%
28 Aug – 12 Oct 2023 Newspoll[340] 1,565 34% 38% 13% 5% N/a N/a 10% 56% 44%
22 Sep – 4 Oct 2023 Resolve Strategic[212] 1,502 32% 34% 13% 8% 2% 10% 2% 55% 45%
6–9 Sep 2023 Resolve Strategic[220] 509 36% 39% 8% 6% 2% 7% 3% 54% 46%
9–12 Aug 2023 Resolve Strategic[227] 509 34% 42% 11% 4% 1% 8% 1% 58% 42%
12–15 Jul 2023 Resolve Strategic[231] 511 32% 39% 10% 9% 0% 8% 2% 56.5% 43.5%
6–11 Jun 2023 Resolve Strategic[238] 510 33% 39% 10% 6% 1% 9% 2% 56.5% 43.5%
14–16 May 2023 Resolve Strategic[247] 511 30% 46% 9% 5% 1% 7% 2% 61% 39%
12–16 Apr 2023 Resolve Strategic[340] 511 30% 43% 9% 6% 1% 8% 2% 59.5% 40.5%
1 Feb – 3 Apr 2023 Newspoll[340] 1,414 35% 38% 10% 7% N/a N/a 10% 55% 45%
12–16 Mar 2023 Resolve Strategic[340] 508 35% 39% 11% 5% 1% 7% 2% 55.5% 44.5%
15–19 Feb 2023 Resolve Strategic[340] 509 31% 41% 10% 6% 1% 9% 2% 58.5% 41.5%
17–22 Jan 2023 Resolve Strategic[340] 512 31% 40% 10% 8% 2% 7% 2% 57.5% 42.5%
30 Nov – 4 Dec 2022 Resolve Strategic[340] 512 33% 38% 12% 5% 3% 8% 2% 56.5% 43.5%
27 Jul – 3 Dec 2022 Newspoll[340] 1,817 35% 38% 11% 6% N/a N/a 10% 55% 45%
26–30 Oct 2022 Resolve Strategic[274] 512 32% 41% 10% 6% 1% 8% 2% 57.9% 42.1%
5–9 Oct 2022 Resolve Strategic[275] 509 32% 39% 12% 6% 3% 7% 2% 57% 43%
14–18 Sep 2022 Resolve Strategic[277] 510 29% 41% 9% 7% 3% 9% 3% 58.5% 41.5%
17–21 Aug 2022 Resolve Strategic[281] 639 29% 42% 11% 5% 2% 8% 3% 60.5% 39.5%
21 Jun 2022 Roy Morgan[286] N/a N/a N/a N/a N/a N/a N/a N/a 46.5% 53.5%
21 May 2022 Election 36.5% 33.4% 10% 4.8% 4% 7.6% 3.7% 51.4% 48.6%

Victoria

Graphical summary

Primary vote

Two-party preferred

Polling
Date Firm Sample
size		 Primary vote 2pp vote[z]
L/NP ALP GRN UAP ONP IND OTH ALP L/NP
3 May 2025 Election[5] 32.2% 34.0% 13.6% 1.2% 5.8% 7.5% 5.7% 56.3% 43.7%
24 Apr – 1 May 2025 YouGov[340] 800 31% 29% 15% N/a 8% N/a 17% 52% 48%
27–30 Apr 2025 DemosAU[340] 1,029 32% 31% 12% N/a 9% N/a 16% 53% 47%
24–29 Apr 2025 RedBridge Group[340] 255 35% 32% 15% N/a N/a N/a 18% 53% 47%
24–28 Apr 2025 Spectre Strategy/Dynata[14][y] N/a 35% 31% 13% N/a 10% N/a 11% 49% 51%
23–28 Apr 2025 Resolve Strategic[340] 507 33% 29% 16% N/a 7% 9% 6% 52% 48%
18–22 Apr 2025 YouGov[340] 381 35% 31% 17% N/a 7% N/a 10% 52% 48%
27 Mar – 17 Apr 2025 Newspoll[340] 1,263 38% 33% 13% N/a 5% N/a 11% 53% 47%
11–15 Apr 2025 YouGov[340] 408 35% 30% 14% N/a 4% N/a 17% 50% 50%
4–15 Apr 2025 RedBridge/Accent[341] 478 40% 30% 13% N/a N/a N/a 17% 49% 51%
9–13 Apr 2025 Resolve Strategic[340] 414 36% 29% 13% N/a 4% 9% 9% 49.5% 50.5%
4–10 Apr 2025 YouGov[340] 350 35% 34% 13% N/a 5% N/a 13% 51% 49%
28 Mar – 3 Apr 2025 YouGov[340] 409 37% 34% 10% N/a 5% N/a 14% 50% 50%
26–30 Mar 2025 Resolve Strategic[340] 817 35% 27% 14% N/a 6% 10% 7% 49.5% 50.5%
17–21 Mar 2025 DemosAU[296] 1,006 34% 29% 15% N/a 8% N/a 14% 51% 49%
14–19 Mar 2025 YouGov[340] 474 42% 29% 13% N/a 5% N/a 11% 47.5% 52.5%
17 Jan – 15 Mar 2025 Freshwater Strategy[340] 842 37% 29% 15% N/a N/a N/a 19% 50% 50%
7–13 Mar 2025 YouGov[340] 384 41.5% 28.5% 13% N/a 5% N/a 12% 47.5% 52.5%
20 Jan – 7 Mar 2025 Newspoll[340] 943 39% 30% 15% N/a 4% N/a 12% 51% 49%
28 Feb – 6 Mar 2025 YouGov[340] 379 39% 30% 9% N/a 6% N/a 16% 48% 52%
21–27 Feb 2025 YouGov[340] 352 37% 31% 14% N/a 5% N/a 13% 50% 50%
20–25 Feb 2025 RedBridge/Accent[56] N/a N/a N/a N/a N/a N/a N/a N/a 43% 57%
18–23 Feb 2025 Resolve Strategic[340] 380 38% 24% 15% N/a 6% 11% 6% 48% 52%
4–11 Feb 2025 RedBridge/Accent[62] 261 51% 31% 8% N/a N/a N/a 10% 42% 58%
15–21 Jan 2025 Resolve Strategic[340] 407 38% 25% 13% N/a 6% 12% 6% 47.5% 52.5%
4–8 Dec 2024 Resolve Strategic[340] 404 38% 26% 12% N/a 5% 12% 7% 48% 52%
7 Oct – 6 Dec 2024 Newspoll[340] 947 39% 30% 14% N/a 5% N/a 12% 50% 50%
5–10 Nov 2024 Resolve Strategic[340] 409 38% 31% 14% N/a 4% 10% 2% 52.5% 47.5%
1–5 Oct 2024 Resolve Strategic[340] 405 37% 29% 14% N/a 5% 9% 5% 50.5% 49.5%
15 Jul – 20 Sep 2024 Newspoll[340] 1,263 38% 31% 13% N/a 6% N/a 12% 52% 48%
3–7 Sep 2024 Resolve Strategic[340] 407 36% 29% 13% 2% 4% 12% 4% 51.5% 48.5%
7–11 Aug 2024 Resolve Strategic[340] 405 33% 30% 13% 1% 6% 13% 3% 53.5% 46.5%
10–13 Jul 2024 Resolve Strategic[340] 404 36% 30% 15% 2% 5% 11% 2% 52.5% 47.5%
15 Apr – 26 Jun 2024 Newspoll[340] 393 36% 33% 15% N/a 6% N/a 10% 54% 46%
11–16 Jun 2024 Resolve Strategic[340] 405 32% 29% 15% 1% 7% 11% 4% 54% 46%
15–19 May 2024 Resolve Strategic[340] 406 34% 29% 14% 2% 6% 12% 2% 52.5% 47.5%
17–21 Apr 2024 Resolve Strategic[340] 406 34% 32% 11% 4% 5% 12% 2% 52.5% 47.5%
21–24 Mar 2024 Resolve Strategic[340] 406 35% 35% 13% 2% 5% 9% 2% 54.5% 45.5%
31 Jan – 22 Mar 2024 Newspoll[340] 926 34% 33% 16% N/a 5% N/a 12% 55% 45%
21–24 Feb 2024 Resolve Strategic[340] 404 34% 32% 13% 2% 4% 8% 7% 54% 46%
31 Oct – 15 Dec 2023 Newspoll[340] 917 34% 34% 15% N/a 5% N/a 12% 55% 45%
29 Nov – 3 Dec 2023 Resolve Strategic[340] 405 34% 37% 11% 1% 4% 9% 4% 55.5% 44.5%
1–5 Nov 2023 Resolve Strategic[340] 404 25% 37% 14% 3% 8% 9% 4% 60.5% 39.5%
28 Aug – 12 Oct 2023 Newspoll[340] 887 35% 36% 13% N/a 4% N/a 12% 54% 46%
22 Sep – 4 Oct 2023 Resolve Strategic[212] 1,192 30% 39% 11% 2% 6% 8% 2% 58% 42%
6–9 Sep 2023 Resolve Strategic[220] 404 32% 40% 13% 2% 3% 8% 2% 58.5% 41.5%
9–12 Aug 2023 Resolve Strategic[227] 404 30% 38% 14% 1% 3% 10% 4% 59.5% 40.5%
12–15 Jul 2023 Resolve Strategic[231] 406 26% 42% 13% 2% 5% 9% 3% 58% 42%
6–11 Jun 2023 Resolve Strategic[238] 405 25% 40% 15% 3% 6% 7% 4% 62.5% 37.5%
14–16 May 2023 Resolve Strategic[247] 406 25% 48% 12% 1% 4% 7% 2% 66% 34%
12–16 Apr 2023 Resolve Strategic[340] 406 32% 39% 11% 2% 3% 11% 3% 57.5% 42.5%
1 Feb – 3 Apr 2023 Newspoll[340] 1,193 33% 41% 11% N/a 4% N/a 11% 58% 42%
12–16 Mar 2023 Resolve Strategic[340] 403 29% 43% 9% 1% 6% 8% 4% 60% 40%
15–19 Feb 2023 Resolve Strategic[340] 404 27% 40% 14% 2% 3% 11% 2% 62% 38%
17–22 Jan 2023 Resolve Strategic[340] 406 31% 41% 13% 2% 3% 7% 4% 59.5% 40.5%
30 Nov – 4 Dec 2022 Resolve Strategic[340] 406 27% 46% 11% 2% 2% 7% 5% 63.5% 36.5%
27 Jul – 3 Dec 2022 Newspoll[340] 1,448 33% 37% 13% N/a 5% N/a 12% 57% 43%
26–30 Oct 2022 Resolve Strategic[274] 406 32% 39% 12% 2% 2% 11% 3% 58% 42%
5–9 Oct 2022 Resolve Strategic[275] 404 30% 40% 10% 5% 4% 9% 3% 58% 42%
14–18 Sep 2022 Resolve Strategic[277] 405 30% 38% 14% 2% 3% 8% 5% 59.5% 40.5%
17–21 Aug 2022 Resolve Strategic[281] 507 24% 42% 11% 3% 5% 10% 5% 63% 37%
21 Jun 2022 Roy Morgan[286] N/a N/a N/a N/a N/a N/a N/a N/a 60.5% 39.5%
21 May 2022 Election 33.1% 32.9% 13.7% 4.7% 3.8% 6.5% 5.3% 54.8% 45.2%

Queensland

Graphical summary

Primary vote


Two-party preferred

Polling
Date Firm Sample
size		 Primary vote 2pp vote[aa]
LNP ALP GRN ONP UAP IND OTH LNP ALP
3 May 2025 Election[5] 34.9% 31.0% 11.8% 7.8% 3.3% 11.2% — 50.6% 49.45
24 Apr – 1 May 2025 YouGov[340] 631 35% 27% 17% 7% N/a N/a 14% 51% 49%
27–30 Apr 2025 DemosAU[340] 858 39% 26% 13% 7% N/a N/a 15% 54% 46%
24–29 Apr 2025 RedBridge Group[340] 206 43% 27% 10% N/a N/a N/a 20% 57% 43%
24–28 Apr 2025 Spectre Strategy/Dynata[14][y] N/a 36% 28% 15% 11% N/a N/a 10% 53% 47%
23–28 Apr 2025 Resolve Strategic[340] 409 37% 26% 15% 9% N/a 8% 5% 54% 46%
18–22 Apr 2025 YouGov[340] 320 37% 25% 12% 13% N/a N/a 13% 54% 46%
27 Mar – 17 Apr 2025 Newspoll[340] 1,053 40% 29% 12% 8% N/a N/a 11% 54% 46%
11–15 Apr 2025 YouGov[340] 293 41% 30% 7% 8% N/a N/a 14% 57.5% 42.5%
9–13 Apr 2025 Resolve Strategic[340] 334 38% 29% 13% 8% N/a 8% 4% 53% 47%
4–10 Apr 2025 YouGov[340] 317 42% 25% 11% 7% N/a N/a 15% 58% 42%
28 Mar – 3 Apr 2025 YouGov[340] 332 38% 24% 13% 12% N/a N/a 13% 56% 44%
26–30 Mar 2025 Resolve Strategic[340] 658 39% 25% 13% 12% N/a 6% 6% 56.5% 43.5%
14–19 Mar 2025 YouGov[340] 378 55% 27% 6% 5% N/a N/a 7% 63% 37%
17 Jan – 15 Mar 2025 Freshwater Strategy[340] 665 42% 25% 15% N/a N/a N/a 18% 55.5% 44.5%
7–13 Mar 2025 YouGov[340] 312 34% 29.5% 15.5% 10.5% N/a N/a 10.5% 50.5% 49.5%
20 Jan – 7 Mar 2025 Newspoll[340] 786 45% 28% 11% 7% N/a N/a 9% 57% 43%
28 Feb – 6 Mar 2025 YouGov[340] 307 34% 33% 17% 8% N/a N/a 8% 47% 53%
21–27 Feb 2025 YouGov[340] 302 47% 23% 8% 10% N/a N/a 12% 60.5% 39.5%
18–23 Feb 2025 Resolve Strategic[340] 306 41% 25% 12% 8% N/a 9% 4% 56.5% 43.5%
10–14 Feb 2025 DemosAU[342] 1,004 39% 31% 12% 10% N/a N/a 8% 53% 47%
4–11 Feb 2025 RedBridge/Accent[62] 190 42% 29% 16% N/a N/a N/a 13% 51% 49%
15–21 Jan 2025 Resolve Strategic[340] 329 42% 26% 11% 7% N/a 7% 6% 56.5% 43.5%
4–8 Dec 2024 Resolve Strategic[340] 326 38% 25% 13% 9% N/a 8% 7% 55% 45%
7 Oct – 6 Dec 2024 Newspoll[340] 790 41% 29% 12% 8% N/a N/a 10% 53% 47%
5–10 Nov 2024 Resolve Strategic[340] 330 43% 29% 8% 6% N/a 8% 6% 56% 44%
26 Oct 2024 State Election 41.5% 32.6% 9.9% 8.0% N/a 1.7% 6.3% 53.8% 46.2%
4–16 Oct 2024 RedBridge Group[306] 2,315 41% 28% 13% 10% N/a N/a 8% 54.5% 45.5%
1–5 Oct 2024 Resolve Strategic[340] 327 42% 25% 12% 6% N/a 13% 2% 55.5% 44.5%
15 Jul – 20 Sep 2024 Newspoll[340] 1,053 43% 30% 12% 8% N/a N/a 7% 54% 46%
3–7 Sep 2024 Resolve Strategic[340] 328 40% 27% 13% 9% 2% 9% 1% 53.5% 46.5%
7–11 Aug 2024 Resolve Strategic[340] 327 41% 24% 11% 10% 2% 8% 4% 56% 44%
10–13 Jul 2024 Resolve Strategic[340] 326 44% 23% 10% 7% 0% 14% 1% 57.5% 42.5%
15 Apr – 26 Jun 2024 Newspoll[340] 328 40% 27% 13% 10% N/a N/a 10% 54% 46%
11–16 Jun 2024 Resolve Strategic[340] 327 40% 24% 13% 8% 1% 11% 3% 54.5% 45.5%
15–19 May 2024 Resolve Strategic[340] 327 43% 26% 12% 8% 3% 8% 1% 55.5% 44.5%
17–21 Apr 2024 Resolve Strategic[340] 327 40% 25% 14% 9% 2% 8% 2% 54% 46%
21–24 Mar 2024 Resolve Strategic[340] 327 36% 30% 14% 7% 1% 9% 2% 49% 51%
31 Jan – 22 Mar 2024 Newspoll[340] 772 41% 29% 12% 7% N/a N/a 11% 53% 47%
21–24 Feb 2024 Resolve Strategic[340] 326 44% 32% 9% 9% 2% 3% 1% 54.5% 45.5%
31 Oct – 15 Dec 2023 Newspoll[340] 764 41% 27% 12% 8% N/a N/a 12% 54% 46%
29 Nov – 3 Dec 2023 Resolve Strategic[340] 326 38% 33% 12% 8% 2% 8% 0% 49.5% 50.5%
1–5 Nov 2023 Resolve Strategic[340] 326 36% 31% 12% 11% 1% 6% 3% 50% 50%
28 Aug – 12 Oct 2023 Newspoll[340] 887 39% 30% 11% 9% N/a N/a 11% 52% 48%
22 Sep – 4 Oct 2023 Resolve Strategic[212] 961 34% 33% 11% 9% 1% 10% 1% 48% 52%
6–9 Sep 2023 Resolve Strategic[220] 326 35% 29% 16% 9% 2% 7% 2% 49% 51%
9–12 Aug 2023 Resolve Strategic[227] 326 40% 28% 9% 8% 2% 10% 3% 54% 46%
12–15 Jul 2023 Resolve Strategic[231] 327 36% 33% 12% 6% 2% 10% 1% 48% 52%
6–11 Jun 2023 Resolve Strategic[238] 327 31% 38% 10% 11% 2% 7% 1% 45% 55%
14–16 May 2023 Resolve Strategic[247] 327 39% 27% 17% 7% 3% 6% 2% 51.5% 48.5%
12–16 Apr 2023 Resolve Strategic[340] 327 29% 37% 15% 8% 2% 7% 2% 42.5% 57.5%
1 Feb – 3 Apr 2023 Newspoll[340] 995 39% 33% 10% 8% N/a N/a 10% 50% 50%
12–16 Mar 2023 Resolve Strategic[340] 325 24% 39% 14% 6% 1% 14% 2% 38.5% 61.5%
15–19 Feb 2023 Resolve Strategic[340] 326 35% 39% 10% 9% 1% 0% 5% 46% 54%
17–22 Jan 2023 Resolve Strategic[340] 328 30% 38% 11% 9% 1% 8% 2% 43.5% 56.5%
30 Nov – 4 Dec 2022 Resolve Strategic[340] 328 34% 43% 7% 6% 1% 6% 2% 44% 56%
27 Jul – 3 Dec 2022 Newspoll[340] 1,207 40% 33% 12% 6% N/a N/a 9% 51% 49%
26–30 Oct 2022 Resolve Strategic[274] 328 32% 36% 16% 4% 2% 6% 4% 43% 57%
5–9 Oct 2022 Resolve Strategic[275] 326 38% 31% 14% 6% 2% 7% 2% 50% 50%
14–18 Sep 2022 Resolve Strategic[277] 327 31% 42% 7% 10% 2% 7% 2% 44% 56%
17–21 Aug 2022 Resolve Strategic[281] 409 31% 37% 16% 6% 2% 6% 3% 42.5% 57.5%
21 Jun 2022 Roy Morgan[286] N/a N/a N/a N/a N/a N/a N/a N/a 50% 50%
21 May 2022 Election 39.6% 27.4% 12.9% 7.5% 5.1% 2.1% 5.4% 54% 46%

Western Australia

Graphical summary

Primary vote

Two-party preferred

Polling
Date Firm Sample
size		 Primary vote 2pp vote
ALP L/NP GRN ONP UAP OTH UND ALP L/NP
3 May 2025 Election[5] 35.6% 31.5% 12.0% 7.6% 0.6% 12.7% — 55.8% 44.2%
24 Apr – 1 May 2025 YouGov[340] 287 32% 35% 15% 12% N/a 6% N/a 50% 50%
27–30 Apr 2025 DemosAU[340] 409 34% 31% 15% 11% N/a 9% N/a 56% 44%
24–28 Apr 2025 Spectre Strategy/Dynata[14][y] N/a 36% 32% 17% 7% N/a 8% N/a 54% 46%
18–22 Apr 2025 YouGov[340] 149 40% 28% 12% 11% N/a 9% N/a 58% 42%
27 Mar – 17 Apr 2025 Newspoll[340] 501 36% 34% 11% 9% N/a 10% N/a 54% 46%
11–15 Apr 2025 YouGov[340] 128 37% 27% 12% 14% N/a 10% N/a 57% 43%
4–10 Apr 2025 YouGov[340] 144 39% 29% 8% 11% N/a 13% N/a 56% 44%
28 Mar – 3 Apr 2025 YouGov[340] 166 30% 36% 12% 9% N/a 13% N/a 49% 51%
14–19 Mar 2025 YouGov[340] 111 43% 34% 8% 9% N/a 6% N/a 54% 46%
17 Jan – 15 Mar 2025 Freshwater Strategy[340] 318 33% 35% 15% N/a N/a 17% N/a 52% 48%
7–13 Mar 2025 YouGov[340] 155 42.5% 34.5% 8% 9% N/a 6% N/a 54% 46%
20 Jan – 7 Mar 2025 Newspoll[340] 374 37% 34% 11% 9% N/a 9% N/a 54% 46%
4–5 March 2025 DemosAU[343] 1126 36% 38% 11% 6% N/a 9% N/a 52% 48%
1 Oct – 8 Dec 2024 Resolve Strategic[340] 460 30% 37% 12% 5% N/a 16% N/a 50% 50%
7 Oct – 6 Dec 2024 Newspoll[340] 376 38% 37% 11% 5% N/a 9% N/a 54% 46%
30 Oct – 4 Nov 2024 DemosAU[344] 948 34% 38% 14% 6% N/a 8% N/a 52% 48%
1–10 Oct 2024 Redbridge[345] 1,514 35% 34% N/a N/a N/a N/a N/a 54.5% 45.5%
15 Jul – 20 Sep 2024 Newspoll[340] 562 36% 39% 11% 4% N/a 10% N/a 52% 48%
15 Apr – 26 Jun 2024 Newspoll[340] 156 34% 37% 11% 5% N/a 13% N/a 52% 48%
31 Jan – 22 Mar 2024 Newspoll[340] 368 34% 39% 8% 6% N/a 13% N/a 49% 51%
31 Oct – 15 Dec 2023 Newspoll[340] 364 37% 37% 11% 5% N/a 10% N/a 54% 46%
6–13 Dec 2023 RedBridge[346] 1,203 39% 37% 12% 5% N/a 7% N/a 55.2% 44.8%
28 Aug – 12 Oct 2023 Newspoll[340] 620 38% 38% 10% 6% N/a 8% N/a 53% 47%
1 Feb – 3 Apr 2023 Newspoll[340] 474 40% 33% 11% 6% N/a 10% N/a 57% 43%
27 Jul – 3 Dec 2022 Newspoll[340] 575 39% 34% 9% 7% N/a 11% N/a 55% 45%
21 Jun 2022 Roy Morgan[286] 144 N/a N/a N/a N/a N/a N/a N/a 50.5% 49.5%
21 May 2022 Election 36.8% 34.8% 12.5% 4% 2.3% 9.6% N/a 55% 45%

South Australia

Graphical summary

Primary vote

Two-party preferred

Polling
Date Firm Sample
size		 Primary vote 2pp vote
L/NP ALP GRN ONP UAP OTH UND ALP L/NP
3 May 2025 Election[5] 28.4% 38.3% 13.4% 6.25 3.2% 10.5% — 59.2% 40.8%
24 Apr – 1 May 2025 YouGov[340] 241 24% 35% 11% 15% N/a 15% N/a 53% 47%
18–22 Apr 2025 YouGov[340] 126 21% 45% 10% 15% N/a 9% N/a 60% 40%
27 Mar – 17 Apr 2025 Newspoll[340] 373 31% 34% 12% 9% N/a 14% N/a 55% 45%
11–15 Apr 2025 YouGov[340] 113 30% 35% 8% 16% N/a 11% N/a 50% 50%
4–10 Apr 2025 YouGov[340] 126 30% 32% 13% 12% N/a 13% N/a 51% 49%
28 Mar – 3 Apr 2025 YouGov[340] 120 34% 35% 8% 7% N/a 16% N/a 51% 49%
14–19 Mar 2025 YouGov[340] 307 33.5% 32.5% 10% 8% N/a 16% N/a 50.5% 49.5%
7–13 Mar 2025 YouGov[340] 113 33.5% 33% 9.5% 8% N/a 16% N/a 51% 49%
20 Jan – 7 Mar 2025 Newspoll[340] 271 37% 32% 11% 11% N/a 9% N/a 50% 50%
18–23 Feb 2025 DemosAU[347] 440 35% 34% 11% 6% N/a 14% N/a 53% 47%
1 Oct – 8 Dec 2024 Resolve Strategic[340] 359 34% 27% 12% 8% N/a 19% N/a 49.5% 50.5%
7 Oct – 6 Dec 2024 Newspoll[340] 280 37% 35% 9% 7% N/a 12% N/a 53% 47%
15 Jul – 20 Sep 2024 Newspoll[340] 374 35% 36% 9% 10% N/a 10% N/a 54% 46%
15 Apr – 26 Jun 2024 Newspoll[340] 368 34% 34% 11% 12% N/a 9% N/a 53% 47%
31 Jan – 22 Mar 2024 Newspoll[340] 278 33% 35% 11% 10% N/a 11% N/a 54% 46%
31 Oct – 15 Dec 2023 Newspoll[340] 277 35% 38% 10% 6% N/a 11% N/a 55% 45%
28 Aug – 12 Oct 2023 Newspoll[340] 362 30% 40% 10% 11% N/a 9% N/a 57% 43%
1 Feb – 3 Apr 2023 Newspoll[340] 362 35% 38% 12% 5% N/a 10% N/a 56% 44%
27 Jul – 3 Dec 2022 Newspoll[340] 449 35% 40% 12% 6% N/a 7% N/a 57% 43%
21 Jun 2022 Roy Morgan[286] 103 N/a N/a N/a N/a N/a N/a N/a 60.5% 39.5%
21 May 2022 Election 35.54% 34.46% 12.77% 4.83% 3.89% 8.51% N/a 53.97% 46.03%

Tasmania

Graphical summary

Primary vote

Two-party preferred

Polling
Date Firm Sample
size		 Primary vote 2pp vote
L/NP ALP GRN ONP UAP IND OTH ALP L/NP
3 May 2025 Election[5] 24.5% 36.6% 11.1% 6.0% 2.5% 18.0% 1.2% 63.3% 36.7%
10 Jul – 27 Aug 2024 Accent/RedBridge[340] 107 35% 25% 12% N/a N/a N/a 28% 48% 52%
1 Feb – 26 May 2024 Accent/RedBridge[340] 107 30% 29% 15% N/a N/a N/a 26% 54% 46%
28 Aug – 12 Oct 2023 Newspoll[340] 366 25% 30% 13% N/a N/a N/a 27% 57% 43%
21 Jun 2022 Roy Morgan[286] N/a N/a N/a N/a N/a N/a N/a N/a 63% 37%
21 May 2022 Election 32.9% 27.3% 12% 4% 1.8% 11.2% 10.8% 54.3% 45.7%

Northern Territory

Polling

Date Firm Sample
size		 Primary vote 2pp vote[ab]
CLP ALP GRN ONP IND OTH ALP CLP
3 May 2025 Election[5] 33.8% 37.9% 10.2% 7.7% 7.8% 2.6% 54.3% 45.7%
16–18 Nov 2023 Redbridge Group[349] 601 40.4% 22.2% 11.1% 11.7% 7.2% 7.4% 43.9% 56.1%
21 May 2022 Election 29.4% 38.2% 13.1% 5.4% 1.3% 12.7% 55.5% 44.5%

Individual seat polling

Electorate projections

Date Brand Projection
Type		 Sample
Size		 Seat Tally Majority
ALP L/NP GRN OTH
3 May 2025 2025 Federal election 94 43 1 12 ALP 19
29 Apr – 1 May 2025 Freshwater Strategy[8] Monte Carlo 2,055 70 68 1 11 Hung
(ALP 6 short)
1 Apr – 29 Apr 2025 YouGov[19][ac] MRP 10,822 84 47 3 16 ALP 9
14–16 Apr 2025 Freshwater Strategy[24] Monte Carlo 1,062 68 69 1 12 Hung
(L/NP 7 short)
3 Feb – 1 Apr 2025 Accent Research/RedBridge Group
[350][351]		 MRP 9,953 72 63 3 12 Hung
(ALP 4 short)
28–30 Mar 2025 Freshwater Strategy[36] Monte Carlo 1,059 67 70 1 12 Hung
(L/NP 6 short)
27 Feb – 26 Mar 2025 YouGov[40][ad] MRP 10,217 75 60 2 13 Hung
(ALP 1 short)
13–15 Mar 2025 Freshwater Strategy[47] Monte Carlo 1,051 67 70 1 12 Hung
(L/NP 6 short)
21–23 Feb 2025 Freshwater Strategy[57] Monte Carlo 1,038 66 71 1 12 Hung
(L/NP 5 short)
22 Jan – 12 Feb 2025 YouGov[61][ae] MRP 8,732 66 73 1 10 Hung
(L/NP 3 short)
29 Oct – 20 Nov 2024 Accent Research/RedBridge Group[352] MRP 4,909 65 71 4 10 Hung
(L/NP 5 short)
10 Jul – 27 Aug 2024 Accent Research/RedBridge Group[353] MRP 5,976 69 68 3 10 Hung
(ALP 7 short)
Feb – May 2024 Accent Research/RedBridge Group[354] MRP 4,040 77 60 3 11 ALP 2
21 May 2022 2022 Federal Election 77 58 4 12 ALP 2

Exit polls

Date Brand Sample size Seat tally Majority
ALP L/NP GRN OTH
3 May 2025 2025 Federal election 94 43 1 12 ALP 19
22–24 Apr 2025 The Daily Telegraph[355][af] 4,000 81 50 4 13 ALP 6
22 Apr 2025 Early voting begins
21 May 2022 2022 Federal election 77 58 4 12 ALP 2

Subpopulation results

By age

18–34

Date Brand Interview
mode		 Sample
size		 Primary vote 2PP vote[a]
L/NP ALP GRN ONP TOP[b] OTH UND ALP L/NP
24–27 Apr 2025 Essential[356] Online 1,500 27% 30% 21% 6% 1% 8% 7% 54% 39%
9–14 Apr 2025 Essential[356] Online 1,500 22% 36% 24% 6% 2% 6% 5% 62% 33%
26–30 Mar 2025 Essential[356] Online 1,500 28% 29% 24% 5% 0% 9% N/a 56% 39%
18 Mar 2025 Essential[356] Online 1,500 31% 30% 20% 3% 1% 7% N/a 51% 41%
4 Mar 2025 Essential[356] Online 1,500 29% 30% 20% 5% 1% 11% N/a 53% 44%
18 Feb 2025 Essential[356] Online 1,500 29% 35% 17% 7% 3% 4% N/a 53% 42%
4 Feb 2025 Essential[356] Online 1,500 30% 31% 19% 7% 1% 7% N/a 52% 42%
21 Jan 2025 Essential[356] Online 1,500 32% 25% 23% 5% 4% 5% N/a 49% 44%
17 Dec 2024 Essential[356] Online 1,500 28% 36% 20% 1% 2% 8% N/a 54% 41%
3 Dec 2024 Essential[356] Online 1,500 32% 35% 14% 4% 2% 7% N/a 49% 45%
19 Nov 2024 Essential[356] Online 1,500 29% 29% 23% 4% 2% 7% N/a 51% 42%
5 Nov 2024 Essential[356] Online 1,500 28% 34% 19% 3% 4% 6% N/a 55% 39%
21 Mar 2023 Essential[356] Online 1,500 22% 30% 29% 3% 5% N/a 61% 34%
7 Mar 2023 Essential[356] Online 1,500 26% 34% 22% 4% 3% N/a 55% 38%
21 Feb 2023 Essential[356] Online 1,500 20% 31% 30% 6% 1% 5% N/a 60% 33%
7 Feb 2023 Essential[356] Online 1,500 17% 33% 33% 4% 3% 4% N/a 68% 26%
24 Jan 2023 Essential[356] Online 1,500 19% 32% 32% 6% 1% 5% N/a 65% 30%
13 Dec 2022 Essential[356] Online 1,500 25% 36% 24% 2% 4% 4% N/a 59% 35%

35–54

Date Brand Interview
mode		 Sample
size		 Primary vote 2pp vote[a]
L/NP ALP GRN ONP TOP[b] OTH UND ALP L/NP
24–27 Apr 2025 Essential[356] Online 1,500 27% 34% 14% 11% 2% 8% 4% 54% 41%
9–14 Apr 2025 Essential[356] Online 1,500 28% 32% 12% 9% 3% 10% 5% 54% 41%
26–30 Mar 2025 Essential[356] Online 1,500 29% 32% 10% 12% 4% 6% 7 50% 43%
18 Mar 2025 Essential[356] Online 1,500 29% 29% 14% 12% 1% 10% 6 49% 45%
4 Mar 2025 Essential[356] Online 1,500 32% 30% 13% 11% 0% 10% N/a 50% 46%
18 Feb 2025 Essential[356] Online 1,500 30% 28% 14% 12% 0% 11% N/a 50% 46%
4 Feb 2025 Essential[356] Online 1,500 29% 28% 15% 10% 1% 11% N/a 50% 45%
21 Jan 2025 Essential[356] Online 1,500 30% 35% 9% 9% 3% 8% N/a 52% 43%
17 Dec 2024 Essential[356] Online 1,500 28% 29% 18% 9% 1% 11% N/a 50% 46%
3 Dec 2024 Essential[356] Online 1,500 30% 35% 13% 9% 1% 8% N/a 52% 43%
21 Mac 2023 Essential[356] Online 1,500 30% 40% 10% 6% 2% 9% N/a 54% 43%
7 Mac 2023 Essential[356] Online 1,500 27% 32% 12% 10% 3% 9% N/a 51% 42%
21 Feb 2023 Essential[356] Online 1,500 26% 33% 11% 7% 5% 9% N/a 50% 41%
7 Feb 2023 Essential[356] Online 1,500 26% 35% 13% 6% 2% 11% N/a 56% 36%

55+

Date Brand Interview
mode		 Sample
size		 Primary vote 2PP vote[a]
L/NP ALP GRN ONP TOP[b] OTH UND ALP L/NP
24–27 Apr 2025 Essential[356] Online 1,500 41% 28% 4% 10% 3% 10% 3% 42% 54%
9–14 Apr 2025 Essential[356] Online 1,500 43% 27% 5% 11% 2% 10% 3% 39% 58%
26–30 Mar 2025 Essential[356] Online 1,500 44% 27% 4% 9% 2% 9% 4% 39% 57%
18 Mar 2025 Essential[356] Online 1,500 42% 30% 5% 8% 1% 10% N/a 42% 54%
4 Mar 2025 Essential[356] Online 1,500 41% 28% 7% 8% 1% 9% N/a 41% 53%
18 Feb 2025 Essential[356] Online 1,500 43% 28% 6% 7% 1% 12% N/a 43% 54%
4 Feb 2025 Essential[356] Online 1,500 45% 31% 5% 8% 1% 8% N/a 40% 58%
21 Jan 2025 Essential[356] Online 1,500 46% 28% 6% 8% 1% 9% N/a 40% 57%
17 Dec 2024 Essential[356] Online 1,500 45% 26% 5% 7% 1% 12% N/a 40% 55%
3 Dec 2024 Essential[356] Online 1,500 42% 27% 8% 9% 1% 11% N/a 42% 55%
19 Nov 2024 Essential[356] Online 1,500 45% 28% 5% 7% 1% 10% N/a 40% 56%
7 Mac 2023 Essential[356] Online 1,500 41% 31% 4% 6% 1% 10% N/a 42% 52%
21 Feb 2023 Essential[356] Online 1,500 40% 34% 4% 4% 2% 10% N/a 43% 50%
7 Feb 2023 Essential[356] Online 1,500 43% 30% 7% 7% 0% 9% N/a 44% 53%
24 Jan 2023 Essential[356] Online 1,500 40% 33% 4% 9% 0% 8% N/a 43% 51%
13 Dec 2022 Essential[356] Online 1,500 37% 36% 6% 8% 0% 10% N/a 47% 49%

See also

Notes

References

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