2018 Idaho gubernatorial election
From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
The 2018 Idaho gubernatorial election took place on November 6 to elect the next governor of Idaho. Incumbent Republican Governor Butch Otter chose not to run for a fourth term,[1] and the state's primaries were held on May 15.[2]
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November 6, 2018
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Little: 50–60% 60–70% 70–80% 80–90% Jordan: 40–50% 50–60% 60–70% | |||||||||||||||||
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Former state representative Paulette Jordan was the Democratic Party's nominee. She was the first Democratic nominee from Northern Idaho since Cecil Andrus, who was first elected governor in 1970.[3]
Jordan lost to incumbent lieutenant governor Brad Little by 21.6 percentage points, for a seventh consecutive Republican victory.
A record 605,131 votes were cast for governor in 2018, a 37.6% increase over the previous election in 2014 (439,830 votes). The previous high was 452,535 votes in 2010.
Republican primary
Incumbent governor Butch Otter chose not to run for reelection for a fourth term in office.[1]
Candidates
Declared
- Tommy Ahlquist, businessman and former emergency physician[4]
- Harley Brown, perennial candidate[5]
- Dalton Cannady[5]
- Raúl Labrador, incumbent U.S. representative from Idaho's 1st congressional district[6][7]
- Brad Little, lieutenant governor of Idaho[8]
- Lisa Marie, perennial candidate[9]
- Steve Pankey, Constitution nominee for governor in 2014 and future convicted murderer[9]
Withdrew
- Russ Fulcher, former state senator and candidate for governor in 2014[10] (ran for U.S. House)[11]
- Troy Minton, activist (running as a Democrat)[9]
Declined
- Butch Otter, incumbent governor[1]
- Lori Otter, First Lady of Idaho[12]
- Lawrence Wasden, Idaho Attorney General (ran for re-election)[13]
Campaign
Lieutenant Governor Brad Little indicated in June 2016 that he would run for governor, a decision described as "early" by the Idaho Statesman.[14] Little was characterized as a politician favored by members of the party establishment, including Otter and U.S. senator Jim Risch.[15]
Representative Raúl Labrador chose to forgo reelection in the 1st district in favor of a gubernatorial candidacy. Labrador, a founding member of the Freedom Caucus, was considered the most conservative candidate in the primary.[16] As a candidate, Labrador suggested that he would be open to overruling Medicaid expansion in the event the state's 2018 ballot measure on the issue passed.[17]
Physician and Boise-area property developer Tommy Ahlquist, a first time candidate, touted his non-political background and pledged to cut regulations to encourage growth.[18] Ahlquist notably received the support of 2012 Republican presidential nominee Mitt Romney.[19]
Endorsements
Tommy Ahlquist
- U.S. governors (current and former)
- Mitt Romney, former governor of Massachusetts and Republican nominee for president of the United States in 2012[20]
- Republican National Committee members
- Damond Watkins, Idaho Republican Party National Committeeman[21]
- Mayors
- Michael Barrett, mayor of Challis, Idaho[5]
- Steve Bateman, mayor of Nezperce, Idaho[5]
- Tammy de Weerd, mayor of Meridian, Idaho[22]
- Kevin England, mayor of Chubbuck, Idaho[5][23]
- Kip McGillivray, mayor of Osburn, Idaho[5]
- Jason Richardson, mayor of Rigby, Idaho[5]
- Darin Taylor, mayor of Middleton, Idaho[5]
- Pete Weir, mayor of Hagerman, Idaho[5]
- Individuals
- Charlie Kirk, founder and executive director of Turning Point USA[24]
- Candace Owens, communications director for Turning Point USA[24]
- Individuals
- Kristin Armstrong, Olympic gold medalist[25]
Raúl Labrador
- U.S. senators
- State legislators (current and former)
- Idaho state senators: Cliff Bayer, Lori Den Hartog, Dean Mortimer, Tony Potts, Mary Souza, Steve Vick
- Idaho state representatives: Vito Barbieri, Judy Boyle, Greg Chaney, Don Cheatham, Brent Crane, Gayann DeMordaunt, Sage Dixon, Barbara Ehardt, Terry Gestrin, Karey Hanks, Steve Harris, Mike Kingsley, Lynn Luker, Ron Mendive, Jason Monks, Dorothy Moon, Ron Nate, Joe Palmer, Heather Scott, Paul Shepherd, Thyra Stevenson, John Vander Woude, Christy Zito, Bryan Zollinger
- Former Idaho state senators: Rod Beck[28] and Sheryl Nuxoll
- Former Idaho state representatives: Ken Andrus,[29] Gayle Batt, Reed DeMordaunt, Steve Kren, Kathleen Sims, and JoAn Wood
- Individuals
- David Bossie, deputy campaign manager for Donald Trump's 2016 presidential campaign[30]
- Dick Heller[31]
- Tyler Ricks, Idaho Young Republicans treasurer and Ada GOP precinct committeeman
- Political action committees
- Protect Freedom PAC[27]
- Trade associations
- Inland Pacific Chapter of Associated Builders and Contractors (IPC-ABC)[32]
- Organizations
Brad Little
- U.S. governors (current and former)
- Phil Batt, former governor of Idaho[35]
- Butch Otter, governor of Idaho[36]
- U.S. senators
- U.S. representatives
- Mike Simpson, Idaho
- Statewide elected officials (current and former'
- Jack Riggs, former lieutenant governor of Idaho[38]
- Brandon Woolf, Idaho state controller
- Ben Ysursa, former Idaho secretary of state
- State legislators (current and former)
- Scott Bedke, Speaker of the Idaho House of Representatives
- Brent Hill, president pro tempore of the Idaho Senate
- Idaho state senators: Patti Anne Lodge[39] and Jeff Siddoway
- Idaho state representatives: Megan Blanksma,[39] Stephen Hartgen,[40] Ryan Kerby,[41] and Eric Redman
- Former Idaho state senators: Denton Darrington[41] and Jim Hammond[39]
- Former Idaho state representatives: George Eskridge,[41] Lee Gagner,[39] and Bert Stevenson[41]
- Newspapers
- Idaho Mountain Express[42]
- The Idaho Press-Tribune[43]
- Idaho Statesman[44]
- Times-News[45]
- Organizations
- Idaho Associated General Contractors[46]
- Idaho Cattle Association[47]
- Idaho Grain Producers Association[48]
- Idaho Loggers PAC[49]
- Idaho Medical Association[50]
- Idaho Realtors[51]
- Idaho State Dental Association[52]
- National Federation of Independent Business[53]
- Professional Fire Fighters of Idaho[54]
Polling
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Tommy Ahlquist |
Raul Labrador |
Brad Little |
Lisa Marie |
Lawrence Wasden* |
Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dan Jones & Associates[55] | February 26 – March 15, 2018 | – | – | 21% | 25% | 17% | – | – | 6% | 31% |
| Dan Jones & Associates[56] | November 8–15, 2017 | 619 | ± 3.9% | 14% | 17% | 21% | 4% | 4% | 5% | 36% |
| Magellan Strategies (R-Labrador)[57] | October 11–12, 2017 | 714 | ± 3.7% | 21% | 37% | 23% | – | – | – | 19% |
* Denotes candidates who did not enter the race.
Forum and debates
| No. | Date | Host | Moderator | Link | Republican | Republican | Republican |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Key: P Participant A Absent N Not invited I Invited W Withdrawn |
|||||||
| Tommy Ahlquist | Raúl Labrador | Brad Little | |||||
| 1 | Apr. 10, 2018 | Greater Idaho Falls Chamber of Commerce KIDK Compass Academy |
Todd Kunz | [58] | P | N | P |
| 2 | Apr. 23, 2018 | Idaho Public Television | Melissa Davlin | [59] | P | P | P |
| 3 | May 1, 2018 | KTVB Northwest Nazarene University |
Dee Sarton | [60] | P | P | P |
Results
Little ultimately won the primary with 37.3% of the vote, with Labrador taking 32.6% and Ahlquist taking 26.2%. Little's campaign performed best in the Boise metropolitan area and agrarian communities in the southwestern part of the state. Labrador performed best in areas in the 1st congressional district, located in the northern part of the state. Ahlquist, a Mormon, saw a better performance in eastern counties, which have a notable Latter Day Saint (LDS) presence.[61]
Little
- 50–60%
- 40–50%
- 30–40%
Labrador
- 40–50%
- 30–40%
Ahlquist
- 40–50%
- 30–40%
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Republican | Brad Little | 72,518 | 37.3 | |
| Republican | Raúl Labrador | 63,460 | 32.6 | |
| Republican | Tommy Ahlquist | 50,977 | 26.2 | |
| Republican | Lisa Marie | 3,390 | 1.7 | |
| Republican | Steve Pankey | 2,701 | 1.4 | |
| Republican | Harley Brown | 874 | 0.4 | |
| Republican | Dalton Cannady | 528 | 0.3 | |
| Total votes | 194,448 | 100.0 | ||
Democratic primary
Candidates
Declared
- A.J. Balukoff, businessman, member of the Boise School District board of trustees and nominee for governor in 2014[62]
- Peter Dill, organic farmer and business attorney[5]
- Paulette Jordan, former state representative[63]
Declined
- Michelle Stennett, minority leader of the Idaho Senate[64]
Endorsements
A. J. Balukoff
- U.S. representatives (former)
- Idaho: Larry LaRocco, Walt Minnick, and Richard Stallings[65]
- Statewide officials (current and former)
- Betty Richardson, former U.S. Attorney for Idaho[65]
- Cathy Silak, former Idaho Supreme Court justice[66]
- State legislators (current and former)
- Mat Erpelding, Idaho House minority leader[67]
- Idaho state senators: Cherie Buckner-Webb,[67] Grant Burgoyne,[68] Maryanne Jordan,[69] Mark Nye,[70] and Janie Ward-Engelking[69]
- Idaho state representatives: Sue Chew,[69] Phylis King,[71] Hy Kloc,[72] John McCrostie,[71] Elaine Smith,[65] and Melissa Wintrow[67]
- Former Idaho state senators: Ron Beitelspacher,[65] Mike Blackbird,[65] Gail Bray,[73] Mike Burkett,[74] Mary Lou Reed[75]
- Former Idaho state representatives: John Rusche (and former House minority leader),[76] Liz Chavez,[77] Bill Killen,[78] Donna Pence,[65] Anne Pasley-Stuart,[79] James Ruchti,[65] and Dan Rudolph[80]
- Democratic National Committee officials (current and former)
- Jessi Boyer, Idaho national committeewoman[81]
- Larry Kenck, former chairman of the Idaho Democratic Party[65]
- Local and municipal officials (current and former)
- Tom Hearn, Coeur d'Alene school board member[82]
- Elfreda Higgins, Garden City councilwoman (and former Idaho state representative)[83]
- Mike Kennedy, former Coeur d'Alene city councilman[84]
- Cari Miller, Lewiston city councilwoman[85]
- Kristin Muchow, board member of the Greater Boise Auditorium District[85]
- Beth Oppenheimer, Boise School board member[86]
- Holli Woodings, Boise City Councilwoman (and former state representative)[65]
- Newspapers
- Organizations
Paulette Jordan
- U.S. Senator (former)
- Ben Nighthorse Campbell, Colorado (Republican)[88]
- State legislators (former)
- Former Idaho state senators: John Peavey
- Individuals
- Organizations
Debate
| No. | Date | Host | Moderator | Link | Democratic | Democratic |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Key: P Participant A Absent N Not invited I Invited W Withdrawn |
||||||
| A.J. Balukoff | Paulette Jordan | |||||
| 1 | April 23, 2018 | Idaho Public Television | Melissa Davlin | PBS | P | P |
| 2 | May 1, 2018 | KTVB Northwest Nazarene University |
Dee Sarton | YouTube | P | P |
Results
Jordan
- 80–90%
- 70–80%
- 60–70%
- 50–60%
- 40–50%
Jordan/Balukoff tie
- 40–50%
Balukoff
- 50–60%
- 60–70%
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Democratic | Paulette Jordan | 38,483 | 58.4 | |
| Democratic | A.J. Balukoff | 26,403 | 40.1 | |
| Democratic | Peter Dill | 964 | 1.5 | |
| Total votes | 65,850 | 100.0 | ||
Independents
General election
Predictions
| Source | Ranking | As of |
|---|---|---|
| The Cook Political Report[93] | Safe R | October 26, 2018 |
| The Washington Post[94] | Safe R | November 5, 2018 |
| FiveThirtyEight[95] | Safe R | November 5, 2018 |
| Rothenberg Political Report[96] | Safe R | November 1, 2018 |
| Sabato's Crystal Ball[97] | Safe R | November 5, 2018 |
| RealClearPolitics[98] | Safe R | November 4, 2018 |
| Daily Kos[99] | Safe R | November 5, 2018 |
| Fox News[100][a] | Likely R | November 5, 2018 |
| Politico[101] | Safe R | November 5, 2018 |
| Governing[102] | Safe R | November 5, 2018 |
Debate
| No. | Date | Host | Moderator | Link | Republican | Democratic |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Key: P Participant A Absent N Not invited I Invited W Withdrawn |
||||||
| Brad Little | Paulette Jordan | |||||
| 1 | October 15, 2018 | IdahoPTV | Melissa Davlin | C-SPAN | P | P |
Polling
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Brad Little (R) |
Paulette Jordan (D) |
Bev Boeck (L) |
Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Change Research[103] | November 2–4, 2018 | 838 | – | 55% | 39% | 3% | 2%[104] | – |
| Clarity Campaign Labs (D-Idaho Voices for Change Now)[105] | August 2–5, 2018 | 826 | ± 3.2% | 36% | 28% | – | 5% | 31% |
| Clarity Campaign Labs (D-Idaho Voices for Change Now)[106] | July 12–15, 2018 | 1,061 | ± 2.8% | 38% | 28% | – | 7% | 26% |
| Dan Jones & Associates[107] | June 22 – July 9, 2018 | 606 | ± 4.0% | 43% | 31% | 5% | 8%[108] | 13% |
Results
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | ±% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Republican | Brad Little | 361,661 | 59.77% | +6.25% | |
| Democratic | Paulette Jordan | 231,081 | 38.19% | −0.36% | |
| Libertarian | Bev "Angel" Boeck | 6,551 | 1.08% | −2.99% | |
| Constitution | Walter L. Bayes | 5,787 | 0.96% | −0.23% | |
| Independent | Lisa Marie (write-in) | 51 | 0.01% | N/A | |
| Total votes | 605,131 | 100.00% | N/A | ||
| Republican hold | |||||
Counties that flipped from Democratic to Republican
By congressional district
Little won both congressional districts.[109]
| District | Little | Jordan | Representative |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1st | 63% | 35% | Raúl Labrador (115th Congress) |
| Russ Fulcher (116th Congress) | |||
| 2nd | 56% | 42% | Mike Simpson |
See also
Notes
- The Fox News Midterm Power Rankings uniquely does not contain a category for Safe/Solid races.