Impacts of California High-Speed Rail

On January 18, 2024, Derek Boughton of the Authority presented the latest financial impact analysis report through June 2023.^[1]

The Central Valley Training Center (located in Selma, California) is an organization supported by the Authority and local non-profit and governmental organizations. Since 2020 it has provided hands-on, free, 12-week pre-apprenticeship programs in 11 trades to prepare Central Valley veterans, at-risk young adults, minority, and low-income populations for construction jobs on the CAHSR project. As of December 2023 it has graduated 11 cohorts, totaling over 176 students, and further assisted them by providing job placement as well as other support services.^[2]

CAHSR is designed to be an entirely environmentally sustainable system. Each year since 2018 the Authority has produced a Sustainability Report.^[3] Highlights of the 2022 report are:

• "Restoring more than 2,972 acres of habitat and protecting more than 3,190 acres of agricultural land;
• Planting more than 7,100 trees;
• Avoiding or sequestering 420,245 metric tons of carbon dioxide – the equivalent of removing one natural gas-fired power plant from the grid for a year;
• Increasing small business participation to over 700 entities;
• Generating between $12.7 and 13.7 billion in total economic activity in the state, with 56% investment in disadvantaged communities."^[4]

The 2021 Economic Impact Factsheet estimated that as of June 2021, the statewide economic benefits of the project included 64,400–70,500 job-years of employment, $4.8–$5.2 billion in labor employment, and $12.7–13.7 billion in economic output, and that as of February 2022, 699 small businesses were involved in the project.^[5]

The Authority's economic impact analysis is updated annually. The 2021 Economic Analysis Report contains data as of June 2021.^[6]

In its 67-page ruling in May 2015, the federal Surface Transportation Board noted: "The current transportation system in the San Joaquin Valley region has not kept pace with the increase in population, economic activity, and tourism. ... The interstate highway system, commercial airports, and conventional passenger rail systems serving the intercity market are operating at or near capacity and would require large public investments for maintenance and expansion to meet existing demand and future growth over the next 25 years or beyond."^[7] Thus, the Board sees the HSR system as providing valuable benefits to the region's transportation needs.

The San Joaquin Valley is also one of the poorest areas of the state. For example, the unemployment rate near the end of 2014 in Fresno County was 2.2% higher than the statewide average.^[8] And, of the five poorest metro areas in the country, three are in the Central Valley.^[9] The HSR system has the potential to significantly improve this region and its economy. A large January 2015 report to the CHSRA examined this issue.^[10]

In addition to jobs and income levels in general, the presence of HSR is expected to benefit the growth in the cities around the HSR stations. It is anticipated that this will help increase population density in those cities and reduce "development sprawl" out into surrounding farmlands.^[11]

There have also been some reported negative impacts from the project's land acquisitions and constructions. As of Oct. 2021 in the Phase 1 construction the project displaced or adversely affected immigrants (Mexican, Cambodian, and Japanese), homeless outreach organizations, homeless shelters, firefighters, nonprofits working with welfare recipients, thrift stores, and disadvantaged communities such as Wasco.^[12][13]

"What Is the Value of Electrified High-Speed Rail Between Merced and Bakersfield?" in the 2022 Business Plan^[14] (p. 25) listed these estimated benefits which will come from the Interim Initial Operating Segment:

• Travel time will be significantly shorted, and travel will be more reliable. Car travel time is 2.5 hrs. one-way. The Amtrak San Joaquin takes 3 hrs. at best, but there are only 7 round-trips each day, and intervening freight service makes service unreliable. CAHSR is estimated to reduce travel time by up to 100 minutes, and 18 reliable round-trips are anticipated each day.
• With better transit inside the Central Valley, transit to the Bay Area and Sacramento as well as Southern California will improve significantly.
• Rail passenger trips over the same route are projected to nearly double, from 4.8 million annual riders to 8.8 million riders.
• Annual vehicle miles traveled will be reduced by 284 million, reducing road congestion.
• Greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions will be reduced by 50.6 thousand metric tons, equivalent to emissions from 10,874 passenger vehicles driven for one year.
• An additional $117.2 million in passenger revenues.
• More than 200,000 job-years due to the line's operation and community effects.