2018 Iowa gubernatorial election
From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
The 2018 Iowa gubernatorial election took place on November 6, 2018. Incumbent Republican Governor Kim Reynolds ran for election to a full term, facing Democratic businessman Fred Hubbell, Libertarian Jake Porter, and independent candidate Gary Siegwarth.
.svg)
| ||||||||||||||||||||
November 6, 2018
| ||||||||||||||||||||
| Turnout | 61.15%  8.44pp | |||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ||||||||||||||||||||
   Reynolds: 40–50% 50–60% 60–70% 70–80% 80–90% >90% Hubbell: 40–50% 50–60% 60–70% 70–80% 80–90% >90% Tie: 40–50% | ||||||||||||||||||||
| ||||||||||||||||||||
.jpg)
On election day, Reynolds won 50.3% of the vote, a 2.8% margin of victory, and carried 88 of Iowa's 99 counties. She became the first female governor of Iowa elected in her own right. This was the first Iowa gubernatorial election since 1998 in which the winner was of the same party as the incumbent president.
Background
After the 2016 presidential election, President Donald Trump nominated then-Governor Terry Branstad to be the United States Ambassador to China. When Branstad was confirmed by the United States Senate, he resigned as Iowa governor to assume the ambassadorship on May 24, 2017. Lieutenant Governor Kim Reynolds then became governor of Iowa.[1]
Republican primary
Candidates
Nominated
- Kim Reynolds, incumbent governor of Iowa[2]
Withdrew
- Ron Corbett, mayor of Cedar Rapids[3][4]
- Steven Ray, mayor pro tempore of Boone[5][6]
Declined
- Terry Branstad, United States Ambassador to China and former governor[7][8][1]
- Steve King, U.S. representative[9][10]
- Bill Northey, U.S. Under Secretary of Agriculture for Farm and Foreign Agricultural Services and former Secretary of Agriculture of Iowa[11]
- Bob Vander Plaats, president and CEO of The Family Leader, candidate for governor of Iowa in 2002, 2006 and 2010 and nominee for lieutenant governor of Iowa in 2006[12]
Endorsements
Kim Reynolds
Results
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Republican | Kim Reynolds (incumbent) | 94,118 | 98.63 | |
| Republican | Write-ins | 1,307 | 1.37 | |
| Total votes | 95,425 | 100 | ||
Democratic primary
Candidates
Nominated
- Fred Hubbell, businessman[16]
Eliminated in primary
- Cathy Glasson, president of SEIU Local 199[17]
- Andy McGuire, former chairwoman of the Iowa Democratic Party and candidate for lieutenant governor in 2006[18]
- John Norris, former chief of staff to Governor Tom Vilsack, former Federal Energy Regulatory Commission member and nominee for IA-04 in 2002[19][20]
- Ross Wilburn, former mayor of Iowa City[21]
Withdrew
- Nate Boulton, state senator[22]
- Rich Leopold, director of the Polk County Conservation Board and former director of the Iowa Department of Natural Resources[23][24][25]
- Mike Matson, Davenport alderman[26][27][28]
- Jon Neiderbach, attorney, former member of the Des Moines School Board and nominee for State Auditor in 2014[29][30]
- Todd Prichard, state representative[31][32]
Declined
- Chaz Allen, state senator[24][33]
- Joe Bolkcom, state senator[34]
- Bill Brauch, former director of the Consumer Protection Division of the Iowa Attorney General's Office[35][36][37]
- Mike Carberry, Johnson County Supervisor[26][38]
- Jeff Danielson, state senator[39][40]
- Michael Gronstal, former Majority Leader of the Iowa Senate[39][41]
- Chris Hall, state representative[42][43]
- Rita Hart, state senator (nominee for lieutenant governor)[35][44]
- Jack Hatch, former state senator and nominee for governor of Iowa in 2014[26][45]
- Rob Hogg, Minority Leader of the Iowa Senate and candidate for the U.S. Senate in 2016[46][35][39][34]
- Pam Jochum, state senator[47]
- Dave Loebsack, U.S. representative[48][35][49]
- Liz Mathis, state senator[46][35][39][50]
- Jim Mowrer, nominee for IA-04 in 2014 and IA-03 in 2016 (ran for the nomination for Secretary of State)[51][52]
- Tyler Olson, former state representative, former chairman of the Iowa Democratic Party and candidate for governor of Iowa in 2014[46][53][35][54]
- Janet Petersen, state senator[55]
- Steve Sodders, former state senator[56][57]
- Tom Vilsack, former United States Secretary of Agriculture and former governor of Iowa[58]
Endorsements
Nate Boulton (withdrew)
- Statewide officials
- Martin O'Malley, former governor of Maryland and 2016 presidential candidate[59]
- State legislators
- Tony Bisignano, state senator[55]
- Joe Bolkcom, state senator[22]
- Tod Bowman, state senator[55]
- Bill Dotzler, state senator[55]
- Rita Hart, state senator[55]
- Pam Jochum, state senator and former president of the Iowa Senate[22]
- Jerry Kearns, state representative[55]
- Kevin Kinney, state senator[55]
- Liz Mathis, state senator[55]
- Amy Nielsen, state representative[55]
- Rick Olson, state representative[55]
- Janet Petersen, state senator[55]
- Herman Quirmbach, state senator[55]
- Art Staed, state representative[55]
- Rich Taylor, state senator[55]
- Organizations
- Bricklayers & Allied Craftworkers Local 3 Iowa[60]
- Central Iowa Building & Construction Trades Council[60]
- Communication Workers of America Local 7102[60]
- Des Moines Police Officers[60]
- Des Moines Professional Fire Fighters Local 4[60]
- International Union of Operating Engineers Local 234[60]
- Laborers Local 177[60]
- Plumbers and Steamfitters Local 33[60]
- Sheet Metal Workers Local 45[60]
- State Conference[60]
- United Steelworkers of Iowa[60]
Cathy Glasson
- Elected officials
- Holly Berg, Ottumwa City Council member[61][62]
- Mike Carberry, Johnson County Supervisor[63][61]
- Matt Dalbey, Ottumwa City Council member[61]
- Kurt Friese, Johnson County Supervisor[61]
- Kate Larson, Dubuque City Council member[61][64]
- Iowa Democratic Party officials
- Alex Anderson, Iowa Democratic Party State Central Committee affirmative action chairperson[61]
- Evan Burger, 4th District Iowa Democratic Party State Central Committee member[61]
- Lindsey Ellickson, Linn County Democratic Party central committee member[61]
- Jessica Fears, 4th District Iowa Democratic Party State Central Committee member[61]
- Mason Fraker, Henry County Democratic Party vice-chairman[61]
- Jason Frerichs, Iowa Democratic Party State Central Committee member, chairman of the Iowa Democratic Party Progressive Caucus[61]
- Dylan P. Funk, Iowa Democratic Party State Central Committee member, vice-chairman of the Iowa Democratic Party Progressive Caucus[61]
- Jon Green, 2nd District Iowa Democratic Party State Central Committee member[61]
- Holly Herbert, 3rd District Iowa Democratic Party State Central Committee member[61]
- Sarah J. Hinds, Linn County Democratic Party credentials committee chairperson[61]
- Kate Revaux, 2nd District Iowa Democratic Party State Central Committee member[61]
- Nora Taft, 2nd District Iowa Democratic Party State Central Committee member[61]
- Labor union leaders
- Labor unions
- Organizations
Fred Hubbell
- Statewide officials
- Jay Inslee, governor of Washington[71]
- Tom Miller, Attorney General of Iowa[72]
- Sally Pederson, former lieutenant governor of Iowa[73]
- State legislators
- Staci Appel, former state senator[45]
- Deborah Berry, former state representative[45]
- Dennis Black, former state senator[45]
- Wayne Ford, former state representative[45]
- Ruth Ann Gaines, state representative[45]
- Jack Hatch, former state senator[45]
- Chris Hall, state representative[43]
- Doris Kelley, former state representative[45]
- George Kinley, former Majority Leader of the Iowa Senate[45]
- Vicki Lensing, state representative[45]
- Mary Mascher, state representative[45]
- Kevin McCarthy, former Majority Leader of the Iowa House of Representatives[45]
- Helen Miller, state representative[45]
- Todd Prichard, state representative[74]
- Mike Reasoner, former state representative[45]
- Joe Riding, former state representative[45]
- Sally Stutsman, former state representative[45]
- Jane Teaford, former state representative[45]
- Cindy Winckler, state representative[45]
- Mary Wolfe, state representative[45]
- Frank Wood, former state senator[45]
- Newspapers
Andy McGuire
- Individuals
- Leonard Boswell, former U.S. representative[41]
- Bonnie Campbell, former Iowa Attorney General[41]
- Roxanne Conlin, former United States Attorney for the Southern District of Iowa and 2010 U.S. Senate nominee[41]
- Howard Dean, former governor of Vermont and former Democratic National Committee chairman[75]
- Michael Gronstal, former Majority Leader of the Iowa Senate[41]
- Gary Kroeger, 2016 State House candidate and activist[41]
- Ryan McDaniel, president of the Student Leadership Council for Iowa Safe Schools[41]
- Linda Nelson, former state representative and former president of the Iowa State Education Association[41]
- Phyllis Thede, state representative[41]
- Jamie Woods, chair of the Black Caucus of the Iowa Democratic Party[41]
- Jo Ann Zimmerman, former lieutenant governor of Iowa[41]
John Norris
- Individuals
- Brad Anderson, 2014 Democratic Secretary of State nominee
- Marti Anderson, state representative
- Daryll Beal, former state senator
- Tom Hockensmith, Polk County Supervisor
- Marcia Nichols, former political director for AFSCME 61
- Jo Oldson, state representative
- Brian Quirk, former state representative
- Don Ruby, Iowa Democratic Party Secretary
- Dave Schroeder, former state representative
- Norm Sterzenbach, former executive director, Iowa Democratic Party
- Rod Sullivan, Johnson County Supervisor
- Roger Thomas, former state representative
- Travis Weipert, Johnson County Auditor
- Andrew Wenthe, mayor of Fayette, former state representative
Todd Prichard (withdrew)
- Individuals
- Bruce Bearinger, state representative[76]
- Timi Brown-Powers, state representative[76]
- David Dawson, former state representative[76]
- Bob Dvorsky, state senator[76]
- Ro Foege, former state representative[76]
- Ruth Ann Gaines, state representative[76]
- Dave Jacoby, state representative[76]
- Tim Kacena, state representative[76]
- Monica Kurth, state representative[76]
- Dan Muhlbauer, former state representative[76]
- Sharon Steckman, state representative[76]
- Sally Stutsman, former state representative[76]
- Roger Thomas, former state representative[76]
- Mary Wolfe, state representative[76]
Polling
Hypothetical polling
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Nate Boulton |
Cathy Glasson |
Fred Hubbell |
Andrea McGuire |
Jon Neiderbach |
John Norris |
Ross Wilburn |
Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Selzer & Company[77] | May 13–15, 2018 | 501 | ± 4.4% | 20% | 13% | 31% | 5% | – | 5% | 3% | 10% | 14% |
| Remington[78] | May 5–6, 2018 | 2,315 | ± 2.0% | 20% | 7% | 46% | 3% | – | 5% | 1% | – | 18% |
| 20-20 Insight[79] | November 8–10, 2017 | 762 | ± 3.6% | 13% | 6% | 22% | 3% | 2% | 5% | 1% | – | 47% |
Results
Hubbell—70–80%
Hubbell—60–70%
Hubbell—50–60%
Hubbell—40–50%
Hubbell—<40%
Glasson—<40%
Norris—60–70%
Boulton—<40%
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Democratic | Fred Hubbell | 99,245 | 55.41 | |
| Democratic | Cathy Glasson | 36,815 | 20.55 | |
| Democratic | John Norris | 20,498 | 11.44 | |
| Democratic | Andy McGuire | 9,404 | 5.25 | |
| Democratic | Nate Boulton (withdrawn) | 9,082 | 5.07 | |
| Democratic | Ross Wilburn | 3,880 | 2.17 | |
| Democratic | Write-ins | 200 | 0.01 | |
| Total votes | 179,124 | 100 | ||
Libertarian primary
Libertarian Party presidential nominee Gary Johnson received 3.8 percent of the votes in Iowa in 2016, surpassing the 2 percent threshold to attain full political party status.[80] As a result, the Libertarian Party was allowed to hold a primary to select a nominee.[80]
Candidates
Nominated
- Jake Porter, business consultant
Declared
Endorsements
Jake Porter
- Newspapers
Results
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Libertarian | Jake Porter | 991 | 53.92 | |
| Libertarian | Marco Battaglia | 705 | 38.36 | |
| Libertarian | Write-ins | 142 | 7.73 | |
| Total votes | 1,838 | 100 | ||
Independents
General election
Debates
Predictions
| Source | Ranking | As of |
|---|---|---|
| The Cook Political Report[95] | Tossup | October 26, 2018 |
| The Washington Post[96] | Tossup | November 5, 2018 |
| FiveThirtyEight[97] | Lean D (flip) | November 5, 2018 |
| Rothenberg Political Report[98] | Tilt D (flip) | November 1, 2018 |
| Sabato's Crystal Ball[99] | Lean D (flip) | November 5, 2018 |
| RealClearPolitics[100] | Tossup | November 4, 2018 |
| Daily Kos[101] | Tossup | November 5, 2018 |
| Fox News[102][a] | Tossup | November 5, 2018 |
| Politico[103] | Tossup | November 5, 2018 |
| Governing[104] | Tossup | November 5, 2018 |
- Notes
- The Fox News Midterm Power Rankings uniquely does not contain a category for Safe/Solid races
Polling
View source data.
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Kim Reynolds (R) |
Fred Hubbell (D) |
Jake Porter (L) |
Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Change Research[105] | November 2–4, 2018 | 961 | – | 46% | 49% | 3% | 1%[106] | – |
| Selzer & Company[107] | October 30 – November 2, 2018 | 801 | ± 3.5% | 44% | 46% | 2% | 1% | 7% |
| Emerson College[108] | October 29 – November 1, 2018 | 1,462 | ± 2.7% | 49% | 45% | – | 2% | 5% |
| University of Iowa[109] | October 8–22, 2018 | 452 | – | 40% | 48% | – | 5% | 6% |
| Selzer & Company[110] | September 17–20, 2018 | 555 | ± 4.2% | 41% | 43% | 7% | 0% | 9% |
| Emerson College[111] | September 6–8, 2018 | 1,000 | ± 3.2% | 31% | 36% | – | 7% | 26% |
| Selzer & Company[112] | January 28–31, 2018 | 801 | ± 3.5% | 42% | 37% | – | 12% | 10% |
Hypothetical polling
with Nate Boulton
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Kim Reynolds (R) |
Nate Boulton (D) |
Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Selzer & Company[112] | January 28–31, 2018 | 801 | ± 3.5% | 41% | 37% | 11% | 11% |
with Cathy Glasson
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Kim Reynolds (R) |
Cathy Glasson (D) |
Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Selzer & Company[112] | January 28–31, 2018 | 801 | ± 3.5% | 44% | 31% | 14% | 12% |
with generic Democrat
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Kim Reynolds (R) |
Generic Democrat |
Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20/20 Insights (D-Mowrer)[113] | June 19–21, 2017 | 526 | ± 4.3% | 44% | 39% | 17% |
with John Norris
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Kim Reynolds (R) |
John Norris (D) |
Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Selzer & Company[112] | January 28–31, 2018 | 801 | ± 3.5% | 41% | 30% | 14% | 15% |
with Andy McGuire
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Kim Reynolds (R) |
Andy McGuire (D) |
Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Selzer & Company[112] | January 28–31, 2018 | 801 | ± 3.5% | 42% | 30% | 15% | 13% |
Results
While pre-election polls showed Reynolds trailing Hubbell,[114] Reynolds won 50.3% of the vote on election day, primarily by sweeping every county west of Des Moines and dominating the 4th Congressional District (she lost the other three).[115] Ultimately, she carried 88 of Iowa's 99 counties.[116] She became the first female governor of Iowa elected in her own right.[117]
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | ±% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Republican | Kim Reynolds (incumbent) | 667,275 | 50.26% | −8.73% | |
| Democratic | Fred Hubbell | 630,986 | 47.53% | +10.26% | |
| Libertarian | Jake Porter | 21,426 | 1.61% | −0.19% | |
| Independent | Gary Siegwarth | 7,463 | 0.56% | N/A | |
| Write-in | 488 | 0.04% | N/A | ||
| Total votes | 1,327,638 | 100.00% | N/A | ||
| Republican hold | |||||
Counties that flipped from Republican to Democratic
- Black Hawk (largest city: Waterloo)
- Clinton (largest city: Clinton)
- Des Moines (largest city: Burlington)
- Dubuque (largest city: Dubuque)
- Jefferson (largest city: Fairfield)
- Lee (largest city: Fort Madison)
- Linn (Largest city: Cedar Rapids)
- Polk (largest city: Des Moines)
- Scott (largest city: Davenport)
- Story (largest city: Ames)
By congressional district
Despite losing the state, Hubbell won three of four congressional districts.[119]
| District | Reynolds | Hubbell | Representative |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1st | 48% | 49% | Abby Finkenauer |
| 2nd | 47% | 51% | Dave Loebsack |
| 3rd | 47% | 51% | Cindy Axne |
| 4th | 59% | 39% | Steve King |