Israel and the nuclear program of Iran
From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
The government of Israel believes that if the Islamic Republic of Iran achieves the development of nuclear weapons, the existence of Israel will be in serious danger and this regime will be the first target of a possible nuclear attack by Iran.[1] Benjamin Netanyahu, the prime minister of Israel, who is mentioned as one of the supporters[2] of Israel's "preemptive strike" on Iran's nuclear facilities, has repeatedly emphasized in official speeches that "all the risks are small and insignificant compared to the risk of Iran's nuclearization."[3] The Iranian government has repeatedly emphasized that the country's nuclear program is for peaceful purposes such as energy production and medical issues, and is not seeking to build nuclear weapons.[4] However, since the 1979 Islamic Revolution, the goal of eliminating Israel as a Jewish state has remained a central pillar of Iran's regional policy,[5] and the destruction of Israel is often cited as one of several strategic motives behind Iran's nuclear ambitions.[6]
Also, during the threats of an Israeli attack, the Iranian government emphasizes that it will give a "heavy response"[7] to the "scenario of an Israeli attack" on Iran, and Ali Khamenei, the leader of the Iranian government and commander-in-chief, has also said that "anyone whoever in the thinks of invading the Islamic Republic of Iran, should prepare himself to receive strong slaps and steel fists from the army, IRGC and Basij."[8]
Influential and high-ranking people in the Israel Defense Forces and Mossad, Military Intelligence Directorate (AMAN) and Shin Bet (internal security) organizations, as well as among senior politicians and Israeli media, favor or oppose Israel's "pre-emptive attack" on "Iran's nuclear facilities" and each of these two groups have their own arguments and analysis.[9][10]
Proponents of the "preemptive attack" on Iran's nuclear facilities evaluate the negotiations of the 5+1 group to reach a diplomatic agreement on this country's nuclear program as "failed" and "useless" and as the "waste of time" policy of the Iranian government. This proponents considers the negative impact of Western economic sanctions on Iran's economy insufficient to solve the nuclear crisis and they believes that Iran's nuclear program has progressed significantly during this period. They believe that the Iranian government is reaching an irreversible point in the cycle of uranium enrichment and making ballistic missiles capable of carrying nuclear warheads.[11]
On the other hand, the opponents of the Israeli "preemptive attack" believe that the daily life of the Israeli people will face serious and formidable risks by going to a "risky war".[12]
Possible attack methods of Israel
The Israeli Air Force has purchased from the United States of America various weaponry, including 125 advanced F-15L and F-16L military aircraft, a number of advanced fifth-generation F-35 fighters, and 55 GBU-28[13] laser-guided missiles. Israeli Air Force fighters are equipped with automatic devices and additional fuel tanks, and are suitable for long-range attacks.[14]
Possible routes for Israel's "preemptive strike"
According to the analysis of the Israeli newspaper Yedioth Ahronoth, there are four routes for the Israeli Air Force fighters to reach Iran: "The southern route over Saudi Arabia, the northern route over Syria and Turkey, the central route over Jordan and Iraq and a longer route over the Red Sea that does not require entering the airspace of a third country."[15]
Alleged plan to attack Iran
On August 15, 2012, American journalist Richard Sullivan claimed that he had obtained classified documents through an Israeli politician connected to a high-ranking anti-war officer in the Israeli army. The classified documents was about how Israel attacked Iran. According to this alleged plan, Israel had prepared for a 1-month war. According to Richard Sullivan, military operations would have been "carried out with a series of extensive cyber attacks against Iran's infrastructure. After that, ballistic missiles will be hit Iran's nuclear facilities, command centers and military facilities, research and development centers related to the Atomic Energy Organization and the homes of senior figures related to Iran's nuclear program and missile development. In the final phase, manned fighters will be used to destroy the remaining targets that have not been completely destroyed by ballistic missiles."[16]
University of Utah report
A study has been conducted at the University of Utah and the Omid Institute about the casualties of a possible Israeli attack on Iran, which says that in the event of an attack on Iran's nuclear centers (in Isfahan, Arak, Natanz and Bushehr), between five thousand to eighty thousand people may be killed. According to the author of this research, Khosrow Semnani, an expert in the industrial management of nuclear waste, the talk of this possible war has always been raised in the political and economic environment, but nothing has been said about the people of Iran who pay the main cost of these events.[17]
According to this report, between 3,000 and 10,000 people will be killed immediately, and in addition, many people will be exposed to nuclear radiation and the death toll will be much higher. This attack may kill or injure between seventy thousand to three hundred thousand peoples only in Isfahan. Also, this research shows that Iran is not ready to help citizens who are exposed to nuclear radiation and "it will be a disaster on the scale of Bhopal and Chernobyl."[17][18]
