Kalshi
American prediction betting site
From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
Kalshi Inc. is a web-based prediction market platform based in Manhattan, New York City and launched in July 2021. The platform is used primarily for sports betting, which constitutes more than 90% of the activity on the site[2][3] and 89% of the site's revenue in 2025.[4] Activity on the site is described as "heavily tied to the sports calendar" by analysts.[5]
 | |
| Company type | Private |
|---|---|
| Industry | Sports betting, Prediction Betting |
| Founded | 2018 |
| Founders | |
| Headquarters | 594 Broadway New York, NY 10012 U.S.[1] |
| Website | kalshi |
To a smaller extent, the platform is also used to trade on future events other than sports, including economic indicators, cultural events, technological developments and political outcomes.
The site has been involved in several controversies and lawsuits regarding the legality of its sports and election markets, the ethics of allowing wagers on sensitive geopolitical issues, and insider trading.[6][7][8] Concerns over election integrity and decreasing public trust in the democratic process caused by election betting were raised by consumer advocacy groups and politicians.
Scholars have challenged that Kalshi efficiently and accurately aggregates information about outcomes.[9]
History
In 2018, Kalshi was established by Tarek Mansour and Luana Lopes Lara,[10] two financial analysts. Initially, the project was briefly known as "Kownig".[11]
In November 2020, Kalshi attained a license from the Commodities Futures Trading Commission, registering the platform as a designated contract market.[12][13][14] The site was publicly launched in July 2021.[15]
Beginning in 2022, Kalshi’s attempts to offer political and election-related betting faced sustained legal and regulatory challenges from the CFTC.[16][17][18] The CFTC delayed decisions on these contracts, questioning whether they constituted valid risk-hedging tools and if they served the public interest. Internal disagreement emerged, with Commissioner Caroline Pham dissenting and arguing the contracts were not prohibited and did not require a public-interest test.[19]
In 2023, another months-long legal dispute began between Kalshi and the CFTC. Kalshi repeated that its contracts serve the public interest. In contrast, the CFTC contends that these contracts constitute illegal gambling and that it lacks the resources to oversee them effectively. Chairman Rostin Behnam has cautioned that allowing election contracts could "ultimately commoditize and degrade the integrity" of the electoral process.[20] Despite revised proposals allowing very large bets by hedge funds and institutions, the CFTC ultimately rejected Kalshi’s congressional control contracts in September 2023. Kalshi responded by suing the agency, claiming it exceeded its authority.[21][22][23][24]
After a 2024 ruling by the DC District Court, CFTC had overstepped by blocking the contracts, and an appellate court later rejected the CFTC’s request for a stay, Kalshi was allowed to relaunch its congressional control betting operations.[25][26][20][27]
In 2025, Kalshi became the infrastructure for Robinhood's event contracts Prediction Markets Hub.[28]
Following a $300 million Series D funding, Kalshi was valued at $5 billion as of October 2025.[29]
In 2025, Kalshi signed formal partnerships with media outlets CNN and CNBC, possibly bringing betting odds into NFL television broadcasts, as is already common for data from traditional sportsbooks.[30][31][32] A volume of $3-5 billion was bet on NFL games, with Barron's saying that "Kalshi [...] Need[s] the NFL.[31] Mansour said "The long-term vision is to financialize everything and create a tradeable asset out of any difference in opinion."[33] In December of that year, Kalshi raised $1 billion in a funding round that valued the company at $11 billion.[34]
Controversies
Efforts to make the site accessible for younger audiences
In 2025, Kalshi engaged in efforts to create a "student ambassadors" program where students could sign up to promote Kalshi on their campuses, in order to "[bring] the next 100M users to prediction markets." Following the backlash, the related social media post and webpage have been taken down.[35][36]
Betting on Gaza war
The site has been heavily criticized for including and thus capitalizing on humanitarian issues, such as whether the Palestinian population would be suffering from a food shortage due to the Gaza war.[37][38][39][40][41]
Opposition to Kalshi's election betting
While Kalshi argues that betting on political event would improve oversight to political and economic developments while also providing accurate forecasting data (which has been challenged by scholars),[42] critics such as Consumer advocacy groups like Better Markets contend that election betting could undermine election integrity and public trust by turning elections into speculative trading vehicles.[26] In August 2023, in a letter to the CTFC, Democratic senators Jeff Merkley, Sheldon Whitehouse, Ed Markey, Elizabeth Warren, Chris Van Hollen and Dianne Feinstein urged the CFTC to reject Kalshi's proposal, raising concerns over electoral integrity. The 2024 ruling that permitted Kalshi to relaunch its election outcome betting was described as "a sad and ominous day for election integrity" by Stephen Hall of Better Markets.[20][43]
Holding back payouts of won NFL bets
In January 2026, users who held correct positions on certain NFL bets were only repaid their original stake, rather than the full winnings. Only following backlash by many users and gambling industry analyst Dustin Gouker, Kalshi reacted and paid out the users.[44]
AI generated ads
During the NBA finals, Kalshi aired an ad that was created using generative AI models, such as Google's Veo 3 and OpenAI's ChatGPT. Reactions to the ad that was created by a self-proclaimed "AI filmmaker" were decidedly mixed, with Business Insider deeming it "chaotic".[45][46]
Insider trading
In February 2026, a video editor for YouTuber MrBeast was fined and suspended from Kalshi for suspected insider trading.[47][48][49]
Khamenei death
A market for the ousting of the Supreme Leader of Iran was hosted on the site. Upon Ali Khamenei's death, Kalshi froze the trade, citing it doesn’t allow transactions “directly tied to death.”[50] A total of $77 million in winnings for people who had bet that Khamenei would be out of office by 1 March 2026 were not payed out.[51]
Legal issues
Massachusetts
In September 2025, Massachusetts Attorney General Andrea Campbell filed a lawsuit that accused Kalshi of "promoting and accepting sports wagers" without following Massachusetts gambling laws, as the practice is banned there.[52]
In January 2026, a Massachusetts Superior Court judge issued a preliminary injunction against Kalshi, effectively banning the platform from offering sports-based betting within the state. Under the court order, Kalshi was required to implement geofencing technology to block Massachusetts residents from accessing sports-related markets on its platform.[53]
New York
In November 2025, a proposed class action lawsuit was filed against Kalshi in New York state, alleging that Kalshi "engaged in illegal deceptive activity, and unjustly enriched itself at the expense of tens of thousands of consumers" by operating unlicensed sports betting as well as leading users to unknowingly bet against Kalshi or its partners rather than against other users. Kalshi co-founder Luana Lopes Lara called the lawsuit "baseless."[54]
Arizona
In March of 2026, Arizona Attorney General Kris Mayes and state prosecutors filed criminal charges against Kalshi, alleging that it was running an illegal gambling business and election wagering.[55] The release noted that Arizonans were able to bet on professional and sporting events, individual player performance, and political issues, like whether the SAVE Act would become law. The 20 charges were all misdemeanors, punishable by fines up to $20,000.[56] Kalshi said in a statement that the charges were "meritless" and they were looking forward to fighting the charges in court.[57]
Nevada
In March of 2026, a temporary ban on Kalshi was enacted in the state of Nevada. On 20 March 2026, the first Judicial District Court of Nevada issued a 14-day restraining order, barring the company from “offering a derivatives exchange and prediction market which offers event-based contracts relating to sports, election, and entertainment related events” without having first obtained gambling licenses.[58]
Restricted Countries
As of March 2026, 52 international jurisdictions have taken steps to restrict accessibility to Kalshi. Those are:[59]
- Afghanistan
- Algeria
- Angola
- Australia
- Belarus
- Belgium
- Bolivia
- Bulgaria
- Burkina Faso,
- Cameroon,
- Canada,
- Central African Republic,
- Côte d’Ivoire,
- Cuba,
- Democratic Republic of the Congo,
- Ethiopia,
- France,
- Haiti,
- Hungary,
- Iran,
- Iraq,
- Italy,
- Kenya,
- Laos,
- Lebanon,
- Libya,
- Mali,
- Monaco,
- Mozambique,
- Myanmar (Burma)
- Namibia,
- New Zealand,
- Nicaragua,
- Niger,
- North Korea,
- People’s Republic of China,
- Poland,
- Russia,
- Singapore,
- Somalia,
- South Sudan,
- Sudan,
- Switzerland,
- Syria,
- Taiwan,
- Thailand,
- Ukraine,
- United Arab Emirates,
- United Kingdom,
- Venezuela,
- Yemen,
- Zimbabwe