Manifold (prediction market)
Online reputation-based prediction market
From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
Manifold, formerly known as Manifold Markets, is an online prediction market platform.[1][2] Users engage in competitive forecasting using play money called 'Mana'.[3] Topics on Manifold have included the 2024 United States presidential election and the Oscars,[4] but markets can be created by any user and can cover topics as specific as "whether a particular user will read War and Peace this year".[5]
| |
| Available in | English |
|---|---|
| Founded | December 2021 |
| Founder(s) | Austin Chen, James Grugett, Stephen Grugett |
| URL | manifold |
| Current status | Active |
History
Manifold was founded in December 2021 by Austin Chen and brothers James and Stephen Grugett. Stephen Grugett is the current CEO of the organization.[6]
Manifold received seed funding from the Astral Codex Ten grant program.[7] It has since received $1.5 million in funding from the FTX Future Fund,[8] and over $340,000 from the Survival and Flourishing Fund.[9]
In September 2023, Manifold hosted Manifest, a forecasting conference, in Berkeley, California. The conference was hosted again in 2024, 2025 and 2026.[10] Attendees have included Nate Silver, Robin Hanson, Richard Hanania, Eliezer Yudkowsky, Robert Miles, and Destiny,[7] along with Shayne Coplan and Tarek Mansour.[5]
Market structure
The website uses a play money currency called Mana. Markets use a version of the Uniswap automated market maker, known as "maniswap".[11]